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Overlays

Archive for Class III futures

2025’s Dairy Dilemma: Record Exports, Falling Checks, and What Every Producer Must Decide Next

Saturday, October 18th, 2025

July 2025 exports soared 53% year-over-year—yet most U.S. dairy farms saw shrinking profit margins, not bigger milk checks.

Executive Summary: Dairy exports shattered records in 2025, with the U.S. shipping 1.6 billion pounds of product abroad in July alone—a staggering 53% surge compared to the prior year. But beneath those headlines, American producers are battling tight margins as block cheese dipped to $1.67/lb and Class III futures slumped below $16/cwt, despite robust global demand. Recent research and USDA data highlight that this disconnect is driven by low export pricing, aggressive global competition, and a shrinking pipeline of replacement heifers—a result of widespread beef-on-dairy breeding. While mega-operations leverage scale and small niche dairies build premium brands, mid-sized farms face contraction at a rate of 7-8%. Practical insights from universities and leading advisors reveal that strategic culling, honest financial assessment, and proactive reinvestment now will best position operations for the volatile months ahead. Looking forward, success in 2026 depends not on riding out the “old normal,” but on embracing new models—whether that means cost control, vertical integration, or value-added marketing. The choices you make today could shape your farm’s resilience for years to come.

dairy margin solutions

You can’t sit around the farm kitchen table or check your milk check without someone bringing up the gap between those record-smashing export headlines and what we’re actually seeing on the farm. This year’s export stats (2025, per USDEC, USDA, and CME data) are wild—so let’s walk through the fine print, and offer a clear, honest look at what the numbers do (and don’t) mean for your bottom line.

Looking Past the Headlines: Big Numbers, Real Questions

July 2025 delivered a headline: U.S. dairy exports hit 1.6 billion pounds milk-fat equivalent—a staggering 53% higher than last year, with cheese breaking records for 13 months straight and butter exports more than doubling (USDEC, August 2025). Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East are fueling those gains. (Editorial suggestion: Here’s where a quick online chart comparing U.S. and EU butter prices, or a timeline of shrinking mid-size herds, could really drive it home.)

The brutal irony driving 2025’s dairy crisis: exports hit all-time highs while farm gate prices plummet. This inverse relationship reveals how discount export pricing—driven by aggressive global competition—is bleeding value from domestic producers. When you’re the world’s cheapest cheese supplier, volume growth becomes a liability, not an asset.

But talking with neighbors from Wisconsin to California, a different reality surfaces. Class III milk futures for November struggled below $16/cwt in October (CME Oct 2025), block cheese found a floor at $1.67/lb, and butter—the one bright spot early—crashed from $2.48/lb in August down to $1.65. Feed, fuel, and labor bills just keep nipping at margins. As Dr. Mark Stephenson at UW-Madison says, “There’s a world of difference between what’s happening on the docks and what’s happening in the mailbox.”

Why Export Growth Isn’t Filling Milk Checks

Take a closer look, and you’ll see what’s really moving: American products is cheap. U.S. butter traded at $1.65/lb in October, while EU butter held firm at $2.80/lb (EU Commission). The world always chases a bargain—and lately, we’re it.

Mexico now accounts for nearly a third of U.S. dairy exports—including over half of the nonfat dry milk produced in American plants (USDEC/USDA FAS, July 2025). However, the Mexican government’s 2025 policy papers and NMPF trade summits clearly indicate that they’re backing local dairy expansion and processing, preparing to buy less from us as soon as possible.

Think about Southeast Asia: U.S. powder lands in Vietnam or Indonesia precisely because it’s cost-effective for local processors to build finished value at home. Rabobank’s summer 2025 reports refer to it as “the Asian processing pivot.” It isn’t about U.S. branding; it’s pure economics.

CME Spot Cheese: Small Trades, Big Impact

It always comes up at local co-op meetings—how is the price for millions of pounds of milk set by just a few trades, a couple of times a week? Less than 1% of U.S. cheese goes through the CME spot market (Wisconsin JDS industry surveys, 2024), but that market sets the base for half the nation’s milk. Since the move to all-electronic trading in 2017, those price swings are sometimes driven by a single processor’s urgency, rather than real supply/demand.

Plenty of us wonder: can a handful of loads really justify moving cheese price brackets for thousands of family farms? Truth is, the market says yes—for now.

Processing Expansion: Efficiency and Exposure

You’ve likely heard the figures: since 2023, about $10 billion’s been sunk into new plants (Rabobank, Dairy Quarterly Q3 2025; Cheese Reporter, Jan. 2025). Many are capable of running over 20 million pounds daily—an incredible show of confidence in the future.

But here’s the rub: those plants need full pipelines to pay off. If exports soften or domestic demand plateaus, processors continue to churn out product, often selling it abroad at marginal prices. All too often, this reality is felt not at headquarters, but on the farm, reflected in base price pressure and pooling deductions.

Beef-on-Dairy: Quick Cash, Long-Term Crunch

Every $1,000 beef-cross calf sold today is gutting tomorrow’s milk supply. Heifer inventories have plummeted 10% in three years while prices rocketed 192%—creating a replacement crisis that will constrain expansion through 2027. The math is brutal: today’s survival strategy becomes tomorrow’s bottleneck

Talk to any extension officer or herd consultant this year, and beef-on-dairy is front and center. Those beef-cross calves fetching $800 to $1,200 (USDA AMS, 2025) are saving some farm budgets, especially when pure Holstein bulls bring half that—at best.

But the development suggests a tightening squeeze just over the horizon. USDA’s July 2025 inventory shows replacement dairy heifers over 500 lbs are at their lowest since the 1970s (just under 3.9 million head). Extension consensus (CoBank, UW, MSU) expects that, unless beef-on-dairy trends change, bred springer prices will start a strong upward climb by 2026–27, right as herds may want to rebuild. The risk is real: today’s survival could complicate tomorrow’s comeback.

The Industry Barbell: Big, Niche—Middle at Risk

UC Davis, USDA, and regional co-ops are all reporting similar realities: large, vertically integrated herds with dry lot systems and their own processing arrangements continue to gain market share—especially in the Southwest and California. Scale gives them leverage most can’t touch.

Smaller, direct-sale focused herds—think Vermont or Pennsylvania bottlers, specialty cheese producers—are thriving by telling their story, emphasizing butterfat, freshness, and a personal connection. They can get $30–$50/cwt retail. It’s not easy, but the premium is real.

Yet the traditional family operation—the 200 to 1,500 cow “community dairy”—faces the tightest squeeze. Recent USDA structure reports show these farms contracted by 7–8% in 2025. Once those barns go quiet, the loss is felt far and wide.

The middle is collapsing. Operations with 200-1,500 cows—the backbone of rural communities—are contracting at 7-8% while mega-dairies and specialty producers expand. This isn’t market evolution; it’s forced consolidation driven by scale economics that mid-sized farms simply can’t match at current milk prices.

Exit Trends: More Quiet Closures Than Court Losses

Higher-profile bankruptcies get headlines (361 Chapter 12 filings as of August 2025, US Courts), but five times that many farms have transitioned out over the year without court involvement—through voluntary sale, lender wind-down, or generational transition. Extension and local lenders across Wisconsin and Iowa confirm this broader landscape. Every exit isn’t just less milk; it’s a ripple to schools, dealerships, feed outfits, and beyond.

Here’s the dirty secret: DMC margins staying above $9.50 doesn’t mean you’re making money—it means the government won’t bail you out. Mid-sized operations need $15.50/cwt to actually survive, creating a $2.70-$5.20 monthly shortfall that’s draining equity faster than most producers realize. The ‘safety net’ catches you after you’ve already fallen.

Surviving and Thriving: Pragmatic Action Beats Waiting

It’s not always what you want to hear, but this fall, the best extension and ag lender advice is simple: Cull sooner, cull harder. With cull cow prices at $145–$157/cwt (USDA AMS), and the forecast for 2026 pointing to lower levels, producers who right-size now are shoring up working capital, easing transition period stress, and improving herds’ butterfat performance.

Groups like FarmFirst Dairy and others have even started pooling supply power, making the Capper-Volstead Act mean something again in regional price discussions. Meanwhile, value-added co-ops, marketing alliances, and on-farm processing efforts (boosted by local and USDA Rural Development grants) are offering mid-size and small producers a path to retain more margin.

Three Questions Every Farm Should Ask

Set these out before winter business meetings:

  1. Can you weather another 12–18 months at $16–$17/cwt milk without burning through savings or risking your land?
  2. Is $18/cwt all-in cost a realistic or reasonable goal based on your geography, size, and current practices? What benchmarks or systems will close the gap?
  3. Is everyone on board with your next phase—expanding, holding, or planning an exit? The answers shape what you do before the next market cycle.

Regional Realities: No One-Size Solution

The playing field is uneven. West Coast and Northwest dairies incur $1.50-$2/cwt higher base costs than their Midwest peers (OSU/WSU Extension, 2025), primarily due to transportation and regulatory overhead. California herds are finding their margins in digesters, water rights, and environmental mitigation. In the Midwest and Northeast, adaptive grazers are focusing on low-input strategies, diversified crop rotations, and shifting genetic emphasis to achieve whole-herd resilience.

The Real Bottom Line: Adaptation and Community

If there’s one message carrying through from every conference and farm walk this year, it’s that success hinges on honesty—with yourself, your partners, and your books. Peer benchmarking, ongoing dialogue with advisors and neighbors, and clear, sometimes tough, family talks are what keep businesses and communities weatherproof.

What farmers are finding is that adaptation—sometimes fast, sometimes gradual—isn’t a choice anymore; it’s a business necessity. We’ve steered the dairy industry through harder times before, and every forward step now is a brick in the path to the next, better cycle.

So, keep asking, keep sharing, and let’s keep steering together. Our best solutions always start in these conversations. 

Key Takeaways

  • Despite a 53% increase in exports, most U.S. milk checks fell in 2025 as global buyers capitalized on discount pricing.
  • Strategic culling now—while cull prices are high—can safeguard cash flow, boost butterfat performance, and reduce transition headaches.
  • Use regional benchmarking and trusted university data to determine if your operation can realistically hit sub-$18/cwt all-in costs.
  • Don’t wait: initiate open succession talks, review lender relationships, and explore value-added/cooperative marketing to hedge future risk.
  • Adaptation—whether through efficiency, product innovation, or strategic exit—is essential for all farm sizes as the middle ground shrinks and 2026 market volatility looms.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

Join the Revolution!

Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Weekly for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.

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CME Dairy Market Report for September 4, 2025: Cheese Market Gets Hammered

Thursday, September 4th, 2025

Cheese collapse just wiped $0.82/cwt off your September milk check – here’s what smart producers are doing right now.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Today wasn’t just another down day – it was a wake-up call. The cheese market collapse, which hammered Class III futures by $0.82/cwt, is exposing the harsh reality that most operations aren’t prepared for margin compression. We’re looking at a milk-to-feed ratio of 1.16, when anything below 2.0 means you’re bleeding money on every gallon. Feed costs jumped while milk prices cratered, creating a perfect storm that’s already forcing plant shutdowns and route cuts across Wisconsin. Meanwhile, our NDM is priced 6-7¢/lb above New Zealand and Europe – meaning we’re losing export business just when we need it most. The technical charts are screaming that $16.50 Class III is next if this selling continues. Here’s the thing, though… the producers I talk to who are sleeping well tonight? They’re the ones who locked in risk management months ago and have been booking feed contracts while everyone else was hoping for higher prices.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • Your margin math just changed: That 1.16 milk-to-feed ratio means a typical 100-cow operation lost $57/day in profitability – that’s $1,700 monthly cash flow you can’t afford to lose. Run your numbers tonight with $16.50 Class III and see if you can survive 90 days at those levels.
  • Feed procurement window is closing fast: December corn jumped 2.5¢ today while soybean meal added $1.30/ton – smart operators are booking remaining 2025 needs now before transportation bottlenecks in the Upper Midwest push basis even higher.
  • Risk management isn’t optional anymore: Operations with 40-60% of Q4/Q1 2026 production protected through DRP or LGM are weathering this storm. If you’re entirely naked for price risk, you’re gambling with your operation’s survival.
  • Global competition is eating our lunch: U.S. NDM at $2,712/MT versus European SMP at $2,550/MT means Mexican buyers are already looking elsewhere – and Mexico’s our biggest powder customer.
  • Technical breakdown suggests more pain coming: September Class III broke through $17.80 support like it wasn’t there, with next meaningful support at $16.75, then $16.25. The charts don’t lie about momentum.
CME dairy market report, dairy farm profitability, milk price risk management, Class III futures, milk feed price ratio

Here’s the thing about today’s session… it was absolutely brutal if you’re a dairy farmer. The cheese complex didn’t just decline – it got hammered. We’re talking about a coordinated sell-off that wiped $0.82/cwt off September Class III futures in a single afternoon. And here’s what really stings – feed costs are climbing at the same time, creating a perfect storm for margin compression.

If you don’t have risk management in place, tonight might be a good time to have that uncomfortable conversation with your lender or advisor. This isn’t just another down day – this is the kind of move that changes the trajectory of your operation’s profitability for months.

Today’s Carnage: The Numbers That Hit Your Milk Check

ProductFinal PriceMoveWeekly TrendWhat This Means for Your Farm
Cheese Blocks$1.7300/lb📉 -3.50¢-1.9%This is what’s crushing your Class III
Cheese Barrels$1.7425/lb📉 -3.75¢-2.1%Confirms the cheese complex is broken
Butter$2.0150/lb📈 +0.25¢📉 -5.1%Tiny bounce, but butter’s still weak overall
NDM Grade A$1.2275/lb📉 -0.75¢📉 -2.3%Export demand is looking shaky
Dry Whey$0.5675/lb📉 -0.25¢📉 -0.4%Adding insult to injury on Class III

What Actually Happened Out There

The cheese pit was a bloodbath today. Four trades in blocks – that’s all it took to establish the tone, and afterwards? Zero bids left on the board. Think about that for a second… in a normal market, there are always buyers hanging around looking for a deal. Not today.

Barrels were even worse – two offers sitting there with absolutely no one willing to step up and buy. When you see bid/ask spreads widen like that, it’s telling you that buyers have completely stepped away from the table. They’re not just being picky about price… they don’t want the product at any reasonable level.

Technical Picture: The September Class III future broke right through the $17.80 support level like it wasn’t even there. We’re now testing the lower boundary at $17.00, and frankly, there’s not much technical support until we get down to the $16.50 area. The 20-day moving average at $18.15 is now acting as resistance instead of support – that’s never a good sign.

Volume Analysis: Here’s what’s concerning – we didn’t need massive volume to trigger this sell-off. When relatively light trading can move prices this aggressively, it indicates that the market is fragile and lacks liquidity. Big money isn’t even participating… they’re just watching from the sidelines.

Trading Floor Intelligence: What the Pros Are Really Seeing

The bid/ask action today told the whole story, and it wasn’t pretty. Block cheese had those four trades executed – each one lower than the last – and then the bid side completely disappeared. It’s like watching a poker game where everyone suddenly decides to fold.

Intraday Patterns: The weakness showed up right at the open and just accelerated through the session. No bounce attempts, no late-session bargain hunting… just steady selling pressure that never let up. When you see that kind of one-directional move, it usually means more pain is coming.

Order Flow: What’s particularly telling is the lack of any meaningful support orders below the market. Normally, you’d see some scale-down buying interest, but the order books were thin all the way down. This suggests institutional money is still on the sidelines waiting for clearer signs of a bottom.

Momentum Indicators: The RSI on Class III futures just broke below 30, which is technically oversold territory. But here’s the thing – in a strong downtrend, markets can stay oversold for weeks. The MACD is showing accelerating bearish momentum, and we haven’t seen any bullish divergence yet.

Global Competitive Reality: We’re Pricing Ourselves Out

This is where things get really concerning for U.S. exporters. Our powder prices are becoming uncompetitive on the world stage, and the gap is widening…

Price Comparison (Current Market Levels)

  • U.S. NDM: $1.23/lb ($2,712/MT) – We’re the expensive option
  • European SMP: ~$1.16/lb equivalent – Undercutting us by 7¢/lb
  • New Zealand SMP: ~$1.17/lb equivalent – Also cheaper by 6¢/lb

That 6-7¢/lb disadvantage might not sound like much, but when you’re talking about container loads, it adds up fast. Mexican buyers are already starting to look at European offers more seriously, and that’s traditionally been our strongest export market.

Currency Impact: The dollar’s been relatively strong lately, which makes our products even more expensive for foreign buyers paying in euros or pesos. A 2% move in EUR/USD can swing competitiveness by another few cents per pound.

New Zealand Production Update: Here’s what’s keeping me up at night – New Zealand is heading into their spring flush with some of the best pasture conditions they’ve seen in years. If they flood the market with powder over the next few months, our already-weak export position could get much worse.

European Dynamics: EU milk production is in seasonal decline, which should theoretically support global prices. But demand destruction from their economic headwinds is offsetting the supply benefits. German processors are reporting softer industrial demand, and that’s usually a leading indicator for broader European weakness.

Feed Market Reality Check: Your Costs Are Moving the Wrong Way

Here’s where the margin squeeze really starts to hurt…

  • Corn (December): $4.2075/bu – up 2.5¢ today
  • Soybean Meal (December): $284.10/ton – up $1.30
  • Hay Futures (compressed): Still elevated from summer weather issues

The Critical Ratio: Milk-to-Feed Cost Analysis

Using today’s September Class III settlement of $17.02/cwt against current feed costs, we’re looking at a milk-to-feed ratio of approximately 1.16. Anything below 2.0 means you’re in financial trouble, and anything below 1.5 means you’re bleeding money on every gallon.

Regional Feed Variations:

  • Upper Midwest: Corn basis is running about 20¢ over futures due to transportation bottlenecks
  • California: Almond hull availability is tight, pushing alternative feed costs higher
  • Northeast: Hay quality from summer weather issues is forcing more reliance on purchased feed reliance

What This Means: For a typical 100-cow operation producing 7,000 lbs/day, today’s price moves just cost you roughly $57 per day in lost margin. Over a month, that’s $1,700 less cash flow.

Regional Deep Dive: Upper Midwest Takes the Hardest Hit

Wisconsin and Minnesota producers are feeling this cheese collapse more than anyone else. When you’re this dependent on cheese processing, every penny move in blocks and barrels flows directly through to your milk check.

Plant-Specific Intel:

  • Saputo’s Almena facility is reportedly extending their October maintenance shutdown by three days due to inventory levels
  • Grande Cheese in Brownsville has reduced their daily milk intake by about 8% this week
  • Foremost Farms is telling producers to expect basis adjustments in their next pay announcement

Transportation Factors: Hauling premiums in southern Wisconsin have dropped from $0.75/cwt to $0.50/cwt as plants find themselves with plenty of milk and less urgency to bid up spot loads. Some smaller haulers are already cutting routes.

Producer Sentiment: Talked to a couple of producers around Platteville yesterday, and the mood is definitely shifting. One 300-cow operation that was planning a parlor upgrade just put those plans on indefinite hold. Smart move, probably.

What’s Really Behind This Sell-Off

Demand Side Reality: The post-Labor Day hangover is real, and it’s hitting harder than expected. Food service cheese orders have dropped off significantly – we’re talking about a 15-20% decline in weekly order volumes compared to August averages. Restaurants that were busy all summer are suddenly dealing with empty tables as families get back to school routines.

Retail Dynamics: Major grocery chains are working through back-to-school inventory builds and seem reluctant to place large new orders until they see how Q4 demand shapes up. Walmart’s regional cheese buyers have reportedly been more price-sensitive than usual in recent procurement discussions.

Processing Plant Realities: Here’s what’s not making the headlines – several major cheese plants are seeing their aging rooms fill up faster than expected. When you’ve got 60-day aged inventory backing up and fresh production still coming in strong, something’s got to give on the pricing side.

Export Challenges: Mexico is still buying, but they’re being more selective about pricing. Southeast Asian demand remains decent, but competition from New Zealand is intensifying. The EU’s recent trade mission to Vietnam isn’t helping our competitive position there either.

Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns Don’t Lie

Class III September Contract:

  • Support Levels: Next meaningful support sits at $16.75, then $16.25
  • Resistance: The $17.80 level we broke today is now resistance, with stronger resistance at $18.15 (20-day MA)
  • Chart Pattern: This looks like a textbook breakdown from a descending triangle pattern that’s been forming since late August

Cheese Block Futures:

  • Key Level: The $1.80 area has been significant support multiple times this year – breaking below it opens up a move toward $1.65
  • Volume Profile: Heavy volume on today’s decline suggests this isn’t just a temporary dip

Momentum Indicators:

  • RSI is oversold but hasn’t shown any bullish divergence yet
  • MACD is accelerating to the downside
  • Bollinger Bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility ahead

Forward Curve Analysis: The Market’s Telling a Story

The futures strip is painting a concerning picture for the near term, but there’s some hope if you look further out:

Current Curve Structure:

  • September Class III: $17.02/cwt (today’s disaster)
  • October: $17.55/cwt (53¢ premium to September)
  • November: $17.80/cwt (slight backwardation setting in)
  • December: $18.05/cwt
  • Q1 2026: $18.35-18.55 range

What This Tells Us: The market expects some recovery, but it’s pricing in a slow, grinding process rather than any sharp bounce. The contango (upward slope) in the front months offers some premium for forward contracting, but the overall price levels are still well below what most operations need for profitability.

Seasonal Considerations: Historically, October and November have been strong months for dairy, as milk production seasonally declines and holiday demand increases. The futures are pricing in some of that seasonal strength, but not as much as we typically see.

Historical Context: How Bad Is This Really?

Let me put today’s move in perspective… the $0.82/cwt decline in September Class III futures ranks as the fourth-largest single-day loss this year. More importantly, it breaks us out of the sideways trading range we’d been in since mid-August and establishes a clear downtrend.

Seasonal Comparison: At this time last year, September Class III was trading around $19.45. Two years ago, we were at $16.80 – so we’re actually closer to 2023 levels than 2024. The difference lies in the speed of this decline and the lack of any significant support from buying.

Percentile Rankings: Current Class III levels are sitting at about the 25th percentile for September contracts over the past decade. That’s not quite panic territory, but it’s definitely in the “concerning” range for producer profitability.

Volatility Measures: Implied volatility in Class III options has spiked to 28%, up from 18% just a week ago. When options traders start pricing in more volatility, it usually means more big moves are coming.

Supply Chain and Logistics: The Hidden Pressures

Here’s something that doesn’t always make the headlines but affects your bottom line… transportation and logistics costs are creating additional headwinds.

Trucking Rates: Diesel fuel costs have crept up 8¢/gallon over the past month, and trucking companies are starting to implement fuel surcharges again. For milk haulers, this translates to tighter margins and potential route consolidations.

Cold Storage Capacity: Several regional cold storage facilities are reporting higher-than-normal inventory levels. When storage costs start climbing, it puts additional pressure on processors to move product at lower prices.

Port Congestion: West Coast ports are experiencing congestion issues that are impacting powder exports to Asia. It’s not yet at crisis level, but any delays in export shipments can back up domestic inventory.

Rail Transportation: BNSF has been experiencing some weather-related delays in the Upper Midwest, affecting grain movement and potentially impacting feed delivery costs in some areas.

What Smart Producers Are Doing Right Now

Risk Management Moves: The producers I talk to who sleep well at night are the ones who’ve got 40-60% of their Q4 and Q1 2026 production protected through DRP, LGM, or forward contracts. If you’re entirely naked for price risk right now, you’re essentially gambling with your operation’s survival.

Feed Procurement: Several forward-thinking operations have been booking their remaining 2025 corn and soybean meal needs over the past few days. When feed costs are moving against you, locking in what you can control makes sense.

Cash Flow Planning: This is where the rubber meets the road – run your numbers with $16.50 Class III and see what that does to your operation. If you can’t survive at those levels for 60-90 days, you need to act now, not wait and hope.

Herd Management: Some producers are accelerating culling decisions, particularly on older cows that might not make it through another lactation productively. In tight margin environments, every cow needs to earn her keep.

Capital Expenditure Reviews: That new tractor or facility upgrade you were planning? This might be a good time to reassess whether it’s truly necessary or if it can wait until margins improve.

Regional Opportunities and Challenges

California: Almond harvest is creating some interesting opportunities for almond hull feeding, though prices are elevated. The state’s milk production typically starts climbing in September as temperatures moderate, which could pressure local basis differentials.

Northeast: Fluid milk demand remains relatively stable, providing some protection from cheese market volatility. However, higher feed costs from transportation issues are squeezing margins just as much as in cheese-focused regions.

Southwest: Rapid dairy expansion in this region continues, but new operations coming online during this price environment are going to face immediate pressure. Some planned expansions may get delayed.

Southeast: The region’s focus on fluid milk and proximity to growing population centers provides some insulation, but feed cost pressures from transportation and weather issues are significant.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch For

Key Reports Coming:

  • Next week’s Cold Storage report will be critical for understanding inventory levels
  • USDA’s October WASDE report could provide updated demand forecasts
  • Weekly export sales data will show if our competitiveness issues are translating into lost business

Seasonal Factors:

  • Milk production typically peaks in October before declining into winter
  • Holiday season demand usually picks up in November, but retail buying patterns have been shifting
  • Weather forecasts suggest a potentially harsh winter, which could affect feed costs and milk production

Global Developments:

  • New Zealand’s spring production ramp-up
  • European economic indicators affecting demand
  • Chinese import patterns and policy changes
  • Mexican peso strength is affecting our export competitiveness

Technical Levels to Monitor:

  • Class III support at $16.75 and $16.25
  • Cheese block support at $1.65
  • Butter’s ability to hold above $2.00

Bottom Line: This Is More Than Just a Bad Day

Today’s market action represents a fundamental shift in sentiment that goes beyond normal volatility. The combination of weakening demand, rising feed costs, and increasing global competition creates a challenging environment that requires immediate attention from producers.

The good news? We’ve been through cycles like this before, and the dairy industry has always adapted and emerged stronger. The operations that survive and thrive are the ones that face reality head-on, manage their risks proactively, and make the tough decisions before they’re forced to.

Action Items for Tonight:

  1. Calculate your true cost of production – be honest about it
  2. Review your risk management position and identify gaps
  3. Run cash flow scenarios with lower milk prices
  4. Consider your feed procurement strategy
  5. Have that conversation with your lender or advisor

The market is sending clear signals about where we’re headed in the near term. The question isn’t whether this downturn will impact your operation – it’s how well you’ve prepared for it and how quickly you can adapt to the new reality.

This isn’t the time for wishful thinking or hoping prices will magically recover. It’s time for clear-headed decision-making based on facts, not emotions. The producers who recognize this shift and act accordingly will be the ones positioned to capitalize when conditions eventually improve.

Look, I’ve been covering these markets for years, and days like today separate the survivors from the casualties. The operations that face this head-on and adjust their strategy will come out stronger. The ones who keep hoping prices magically recover… well, we’ve seen how that story ends.

Stay safe out there, and don’t hesitate to reach out if you need help navigating these choppy waters. We’re all in this together. What’s your play here? Drop me a line – let’s figure out how to navigate these choppy waters together.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

  • Dairy Margin Management: Navigating Volatility with Confidence – Today’s report highlights the what; this article explains the how. It provides tactical strategies for using risk management tools like DRP to protect your margins, turning market chaos into a manageable part of your business plan.
  • The Financial Metrics That Actually Matter on Your Dairy – Go beyond the day’s market price and learn to measure the true financial health of your operation. This piece reveals the key performance indicators that successful producers use to make strategic decisions, increase efficiency, and build long-term resilience.
  • Genomics: The Undervalued Key to Unlocking Your Herd’s Full Potential – To win in a tight-margin environment, you need an efficient herd. This article demonstrates how leveraging genomic data helps build a more profitable and resilient herd, fundamentally lowering your cost of production and insulating your business from price downturns.

Join the Revolution!

Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Weekly for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.

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CME Dairy Market Report – July 30, 2025: Cheese Surge Slams Prices Higher, Adding $1.00+ to Your August Milk Check

Wednesday, July 30th, 2025

Cheese barrels just jumped 4.5¢ with zero offers left – your August milk check could be $1.20 fatter than you think.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Look, I’ve been watching these markets for years, and today’s cheese action wasn’t your typical speculative nonsense – this was processors with real money chasing real product. Barrels shot up 4.5¢ to $1.6800 with six bids and zero offers at close, which translates to about $1.00+ boost in your August milk check.Here’s what caught my eye: fifteen actual trades in blocks, not paper shuffling. Feed costs are finally working in your favor too – corn’s down to $3.93, soybean meal at $264.40, giving you roughly 30-50¢/cwt breathing room. The global picture’s helping us out, with the euro stuck in neutral, keeping our cheese competitive overseas while Mexico continues to buy steadily.Bottom line? With Class III hitting $17.36 and feed costs easing, you’re looking at margins around $8.50/cwt over feed costs. Time to think about locking in some of that fall production.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Lock in 25-30% of your fall milk now – Class III futures at $16.80-$17.20 protect your margins while keeping upside if this rally extends. With processors bidding aggressively, this isn’t just a flash in the pan.
  • Your August check jumps $0.75-$1.00/cwt higher than expected. Use that cash flow bump to pay down operating loans or pre-buy feed while corn’s showing backwardation (no big price spikes are expected).
  • Regional supply tightness is real, despite national production being up 1.6%. Wisconsin’s holding steady with better cooling, but Midwest heat stress is creating pockets of tight milk that processors are paying a premium for.
  • Global factors are finally working in our favor – the euro’s weakness keeps our cheese competitive, Mexico’s taking 25% of its cheese needs from us, and even China’s dairy imports are rebounding by 2% despite those crazy tariffs.
dairy market analysis, Class III futures, income over feed cost, dairy risk management, farm profitability

Want the full breakdown? Today’s report digs into the order book mechanics, global trade flows, and exactly where these margins are headed through the fall. Sometimes the best opportunities hide in plain sight.

Today’s dairy markets were all about one thing: the cheese complex caught fire. Barrels soared 4.5¢ and blocks edged up 0.5¢, driven by serious hustle from processors scrambling to cover needs. Translate that to your farm’s bottom line, and you’re looking at a $1.00+ boost to your August milk check. Additionally, as feed costs finally ease, this presents a prime opportunity to lock in margins for the fall.

Today’s Market Snapshot: July 30, 2025

ProductPriceChangeWeekly TrendWhat it Means for You
Cheese Blocks$1.6725/lb+0.50¢+1.67%Your Class III check rises
Cheese Barrels$1.6800/lb+4.50¢+2.77%Processors chase barrels aggressively
Butter$2.4725/lb-3.00¢-0.69%Class IV holds its ground, insulating you from butter’s dip
NDM$1.2900/lb+0.50¢-0.85%Export demand cautious but steady
Dry Whey$0.5325/lb-0.75¢-1.85%Protein markets remain weak

What really stood out was the volume—fifteen trades in blocks giving real weight to this rally. Processors were stepping up big, leaving six bids for barrels at close with no offers. That’s a clean break above the $1.67 level that had capped prices all month.

Meanwhile, butter took a small dip, but its impact on Class IV remains minimal—exactly what you want when you’re focused on protecting milk check stability.

Behind the Move: Deep Dive into Market Mechanics

Here’s where the order book gets interesting… The barrel bid stack was loaded deep—I’m talking bids at $1.6775, $1.6750, and $1.6725 before the market even opened, and those offers got snapped up fast. By close, six bids remained with zero offers, signaling serious conviction from commercial buyers.

Volume-weighted average price patterns tell the real story. Blocks traded around a $1.6710 VWAP versus the $1.6725 close, showing late-session strength rather than early-morning hype that fades. The bid-ask spreads narrowed from about 0.75¢ early morning to just 0.25¢ by close—that’s processors showing real confidence.

However, butter is testing support around $2.47, and if that breaks, we could see a move toward $2.40-2.42.

Market participants suggest cheese prices may have additional upside potential if current demand patterns continue, with some eyeing the $1.75-$1.80 range.

Production Reality Check: The Numbers Don’t Lie

While the market signals a tight supply, let’s discuss what’s actually happening on farms. Recent USDA data shows May milk production up 1.6% year-over-year to 19.93 billion pounds—the third straight month of gains. Cow numbers climbed by 114,000 head since May 2024.

That tight supply narrative? It’s regional, not national. Wisconsin farms are holding production steady thanks to improved cooling systems (those tunnel ventilation investments from the past few years are really paying off now). Some Midwest areas show typical summer production dips due to heat stress, but nothing catastrophic.

Industry observations suggest measured caution in the heifer market—quality bred animals are moving steadily around $2,800-3,200, but there’s no panic buying for expansion.

How Global Markets Are Actually Boosting Your Price

Key insight: The euro has remained around 1.08-1.11 against the dollar, keeping our cheese competitively priced for export. That’s actually working in our favor right now.

The challenge: Freight costs keep climbing—adding roughly 3-4¢ per pound to delivered powder prices in Asian markets.

The ace in the hole: Mexico continues steady cheese imports, covering about 25% of their consumption, and they’re not backing away from current price levels.

Fonterra forecasts 1,490 million kg of milk solids for 2025/26—that’s our biggest powder competitor. EU output is expected to slip slightly to 149.4 million metric tons.

China’s the wildcard. Dairy imports are projected to grow 2% in 2025, after three years of decline, but hefty tariffs still make U.S. products a tough sell, despite a growing appetite.

Feed Markets Finally Working in Your Favor

Feed prices have finally cooled off—September corn hovers at $3.9275, soybean meal at $264.40, putting producers about 30-50¢/cwt better off compared to seasonal averages.

Here’s how it breaks down regionally:

  • Upper Midwest: Corn basis runs 10-15¢ under futures—practically free money
  • California: Higher transport costs but hay prices finally steadied around $280-300/ton
  • Southeast: Managing soybean meal tightness from port delays, but it’s workable

The mild backwardation in corn futures (current prices higher than future prices) suggests stable or easing feed costs ahead.

Bottom line: Feed costs for efficient operations are around $8.50-$ 9.00/cwt. With Class III at $17.36, that gives you roughly $8.36-8.86/cwt margin over feed costs.

Your Action Plan: What to Do in the Next 72 Hours

Pricing Strategy: Lock in 25-30% of your September-November milk at current Class III futures ($16.80-$17.20) to protect margins while maintaining upside potential if this rally extends.

Feed Purchasing: Consider prebuying feed at current prices to avoid winter supply volatility and lock in these favorable levels.

Cash Flow Moves: Use anticipated $0.75-$1.00 higher August milk checks to pay down operating debt or build cash reserves for future opportunities.

Breeding & Herd Management: Industry sentiment remains cautious. Quality heifers are moving steadily, but there’s no rush toward expansion—hold steady unless you’ve got compelling reasons to adjust.

The Road Ahead: August and Beyond

August is expected to be constructive, with momentum likely to push Class III prices into the $17.00-$17.50 range. Butter should hold around $2.47 as seasonal demand picks up, and Class IV futures remain steady at $19.28.

Fall becomes interesting with typical post-heat production increases in September and October. If cheese demand holds at current levels through that seasonal bump, Q4 Class III could hover around $16.50-$17.00.

Risk factors? Weather events, trade policy shifts, and export demand volatility remain wildcards—especially in an election year.

What’s encouraging? Real commercial buying—not just speculative chatter. When processors bid aggressively for spot cheese and pay a premium for it, that suggests supply-demand fundamentals still support price strength.

Feed costs finally easing after months of pressure adds further optimism for margin recovery. After the squeeze we’ve seen this year, that’s something worth getting excited about.

Questions about locking in fall margins or how basis levels affect your operation? That’s exactly what TheBullVine.com is here for. Use our margin calculators or connect with our analysts to build a pricing strategy that protects your bottom line while positioning you for whatever comes next.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

  • 7 Sires That Will Add Pounds of Fat to Your Herd – This tactical guide reveals specific sires that can boost milk components. It offers a practical way to increase your milk check’s value through genetic selection, directly complementing the market report’s focus on maximizing revenue from current prices.
  • Dairy Farmers of Canada’s 2024 Outlook: A Blend of Optimism and Caution – This strategic overview provides a big-picture look at the economic forces shaping the Canadian dairy industry. It adds a crucial layer of long-term context to the daily market fluctuations, helping you better position your operation for future trends.
  • The Future of Dairy Farming: How Technology is Revolutionizing the Industry – Explore how innovations like automation and data analytics are creating more resilient and profitable farms. This forward-looking piece shows how to leverage technology to control costs and buffer against the market volatility discussed in the main report.

Join the Revolution!

Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Weekly for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.

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CME Daily Dairy Report for July 23rd, 2025: When Your Butterfat Premium Just Got Whacked

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2025

Butter crashed 6¢ in one day while Class III futures lost 49¢—your Oct milk checks just took a $1.50/cwt hit. Time to hedge?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: You know that sick feeling when you check CME prices and everything’s red? That’s exactly what happened yesterday, and most producers are still treating this like temporary market noise instead of the fundamental shift it actually is. Butter dropped nearly 6 cents to $2.42/lb while NDM fell over 2 cents—that’s real money bleeding out of September and October milk checks, potentially $1.20 to $1.50 per cwt if this trend holds. Meanwhile, cheese markets remained completely silent for three straight days, indicating that buyers think we’re headed lower. European butter is trading 90 cents per pound higher than ours, but our powder pricing has pushed us out of key export markets just when we need them most. The producers who survive this aren’t the ones hoping for a bounce—they’re the ones booking winter feed at today’s lower prices and getting serious about risk management tools like DRP before it’s too late.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Lock in Q4 feed costs immediately – Corn dropped 5¢ to $4.17/bu and soy meal fell $1.00/ton, but those savings disappear fast when milk drops $1.50/cwt. Book 60-70% of winter needs now before this window closes.
  • Dairy Revenue Protection isn’t optional anymore – With Class III futures pricing $17 range through fall, spending $1-2/cwt on DRP coverage beats taking a $3-4/cwt hit on unprotected milk. Do the math on 75 lbs/cow/day.
  • Component management = survival in 2025 – Butterfat premiums are holding while protein values crater. Every 0.1% improvement in milk fat is worth an extra $0.30/cwt when margins are this tight.
  • Regional basis will deteriorate next – Upper Midwest transportation costs are already up 12% year-over-year. If spot markets remain weak, the local basis will drop another 20-30¢ below already thin levels.
  • Cash flow planning needs immediate adjustment – September/October milk checks could run 50-75¢/cwt below budget. Delay expansion projects, postpone equipment purchases, and prepare for 6 months of defensive operations.

You ever have one of those days where you walk into the parlor and just… sense something’s off? Well, that’s exactly what happened in the dairy markets today, except instead of a cow going down, we watched butter crater nearly 6 cents to $2.42/lb. And nonfat dry milk? Don’t even get me started—dropped over 2 cents like a rock.

Here’s what’s really getting under my skin, though: the cheese markets went completely radio silent. Zero trades on blocks and barrels for the third straight day. When cheese traders won’t even show up, you know we’re in trouble.

But here’s the thing that’s got me reaching for the Tums—Class III futures just dropped 49 cents today. That’s not market noise, folks. That’s your September and October milk checks taking a direct hit. Yeah, corn’s cheaper (thank goodness for small favors), but it’s nowhere near enough to offset what’s shaping up to be a brutal couple of months ahead.

CME Cash Dairy Price Trends from July 21 to 23, 2025

What Actually Went Down Today

The price action tells a story, and honestly? It’s not pretty for any of us milking cows right now.

According to the latest CME cash trading data, butter got absolutely hammered—down 5.75¢ to $2.4200/lb with three loads changing hands. When you see that kind of volume on a down move, it means sellers were desperate and buyers were nowhere to be found.

Cheese blocks stayed glued at $1.6425/lb, but here’s the kicker… zero trades for the third day running. Same deal with barrels at $1.6600/lb. I’ve been watching these markets for fifteen years, and when you see this kind of paralysis, it usually means something bigger is brewing underneath.

NDM took a 2.25¢ hit down to $1.2800/lb—and here’s where things get interesting. We’re now pricing ourselves right out of several key export markets. More on that mess in a minute.

Dry whey dropped another penny to $0.5375/lb. Every cent this stuff loses comes straight out of your Class III check. Period.

What really strikes me about today… this wasn’t some fluke in a thin market. We had decent volume in both butter and NDM, which tells you these moves have conviction behind them. When traders are willing to move product at these levels, they’re making statements about where they think things are headed.

Inside the Pits—What the Floor Traders Are Really Saying

The thing about CME trading floors is that they don’t lie. Today’s butter pit was pure chaos—more offers than bids, and that spells desperation selling. Sellers were practically begging to move product while buyers just vanished into thin air.

Meanwhile, cheese land looked like a ghost town. Industry sources are telling me nobody wants to catch a falling knife right now. The sentiment on the floor was crystal clear—wait and see how low this thing goes.

Here’s what’s got me really concerned—Class III futures crashed right through that psychological $17.50 support level we’ve all been watching. That level’s now resistance, and the next major floor to watch is around $17.00. Break that? We could see some real panic selling kick in.

The Global Picture—And Why Our Powder Problem Just Got Worse

Now this is where things get both fascinating and terrifying. Today’s price drops created some wild competitive dynamics that every producer needs to understand.

Current market intelligence suggests our butter has become genuinely competitive globally for the first time in months. European markets remain elevated with futures above €7,000/MT, while New Zealand is dealing with their own domestic supply crisis. Get this—butter prices in New Zealand have jumped 46.5% in just the past year, hitting NZ$8.60 for a 500-gram block. That’s creating real opportunities for U.S. exports if we can sort out the logistics headaches.

However, here’s where it gets ugly… our NDM situation is on the verge of being disastrous. Industry sources are telling me we’re now priced alongside or above key competitors in several markets. A processor buddy of mine in Tulare mentioned they’re seeing European powder showing up in quotes they haven’t seen since early 2024. That’s not good news for anyone banking on powder exports to prop up skim values.

What’s particularly concerning to me is hearing that several major butter plants, which were down for extended maintenance, are coming back online over the next few weeks. That’s adding supply right when demand is showing serious cracks.

Historical Reality Check—Where We Stand

Let me put today into perspective, because the numbers are quite sobering. Looking back at historical patterns, butter’s 6-cent single-day drop is the biggest we’ve seen since early June. However, what’s really concerning is that we’re now trading about 8% below where we were this time last year.

The cheese market’s three-day trading freeze? That’s unprecedented in my experience for this time of year. Normally, July’s when food service demand picks up for back-to-school prep, but that buying just isn’t materializing.

What’s particularly noteworthy is how this compares to seasonal patterns. Typically, we see some softening in July as spring flush milk works through the system, but this feels different. The fundamentals suggest we should be seeing more support at these levels, which makes me wonder if demand destruction is happening faster than anyone anticipated.

Regional Spotlight—What’s Really Happening in Your Backyard

Upper Midwest: I’ve been speaking with producers across Wisconsin and Minnesota, and the sentiment is becoming increasingly grim. The whey weakness is particularly brutal here, as it directly impacts Class III pricing. A producer near Eau Claire mentioned that his co-op’s field representative came by yesterday specifically to discuss risk management for Q3 and Q4 milk. When co-ops start pushing hedging conversations, that tells you everything you need to know.

The basis relationships in this region have been relatively stable, but if spot markets stay weak, you’ll see that local basis start to deteriorate. Transportation costs to major cheese plants are up approximately 12% from last year, adding pressure to already thin margins.

California: Central Valley plant managers are reporting something I haven’t seen in years—steady but completely uninspired demand. Food service orders are coming in, but nobody’s building any inventory. Everyone’s going hand-to-mouth, which is usually a red flag for demand weakness ahead.

The heat’s also becoming a real factor. Temperatures have been running 5-7 degrees above normal, which is putting stress on herds just when they need peak production efficiency. Some operations are seeing milk fat tests drop as cows try to cope with the heat stress.

Cheese processing sources report that retail orders remain steady for food service, but retail buying has gone completely quiet. Nobody wants to build inventory right now—they’re all waiting to see if the whole complex resets to a lower level. When retailers start playing that game, it usually means they expect prices to keep falling.

Northeast: Fluid milk demand remains the bright spot, but that Class I differential isn’t nearly enough to offset what’s happening in the commodities. Smaller operations, especially, are feeling the squeeze. A producer in Vermont told me he’s seriously considering his first futures hedge in over five years—that’s how nervous folks are getting.

Southwest: This region has been the growth story of the dairy industry, but expansion plans are being put on hold. Several planned facilities in New Mexico and Texas are reportedly delaying construction starts. When expansion capital dries up, that’s usually a leading indicator of longer-term challenges.

Feed Markets—The One Silver Lining

At least there’s some decent news on the input side. Corn dropped about 5 cents to around $4.17/bu for December, and soybean meal fell over a dollar to $285.60/ton.

Looking at historical ratios, anything below 2.0 on the milk-to-feed calculation makes margins pretty tight, and that’s exactly where we’re sitting right now. The drop in milk prices today more than wiped out any benefit from cheaper feed, so we’re still looking at squeezed margins across the board.

Here’s what I’m hearing from producers across the Midwest—with local corn prices softening, smart operators are starting to book winter feed supplies now. This is becoming more common as producers get more defensive about input cost management. If you haven’t secured at least a portion of your Q4 feed needs, this may be your last opportunity.

Forward Market Reality—And Why the Math Gets Ugly

The futures curves are painting a pretty clear picture for the next few months, and honestly? It’s not encouraging for anyone milking cows.

Class III appears to be pricing in the mid-to-low $17 range through the fall. That’s a significant reset from where we were just two weeks ago. Class IV futures held up better today, but they appear increasingly disconnected from developments in the spot butter and powder markets.

According to recent discussions with USDA economists, the next round of official forecasts will likely reflect this new weakness. Private analysts are already slashing their Q3 and Q4 projections, with some suggesting that the Class III price could dip below $17.00 if current trends continue.

What’s particularly troubling is the shape of the forward curve. Normally, you’d expect to see some recovery pricing built into the back months, but the December contracts are barely above current levels. That suggests the market doesn’t expect any quick fixes to be forthcoming.

What You Need to Do Right Now—No Sugar Coating

Look, I’ve been through enough of these cycles to know when it’s time to stop hoping and start acting. If you’ve got unpriced milk for the back half of the year, today was your wake-up call.

The Dairy Revenue Protection program is still available with reasonable premiums. For those not familiar, DRP lets you insure against unexpected revenue declines on a quarterly basis, and right now, it might be the best insurance policy you can buy.

Put options for Class III futures make sense if you can handle the premium costs. The math is relatively simple—if you’re considering potential milk prices in the low $17 range, spending a dollar or two per hundredweight to establish a floor starts to look quite attractive.

Here’s a quick calculation to think about: if you’re milking 500 cows averaging 75 pounds per day, a $1.00/cwt drop in milk price costs you about $1,125 per month. Hedging part of that risk starts to look pretty reasonable when you run those numbers.

On the feed side, this dip in corn and soy prices is creating an opportunity you shouldn’t ignore. I recommend discussing with your nutritionist how to plan for at least 60-70% of your winter needs. Every penny you can shave off production costs matters when milk prices are under this kind of pressure.

The Risk Management Reality Check

Different operations require different strategies, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

Large Commercial Dairies: You’ve got access to more sophisticated tools—futures, options, basis contracts, LGM coverage. Use them. This isn’t the time to go naked on milk price risk just because hedging costs money. Your scale can help absorb some volatility, but you need to be proactive about protecting margins.

Mid-Size Family Operations: Focus on feed cost management first, then consider partial hedging strategies for your most vulnerable periods. You can’t afford to take the full hit if this trend continues. Component management becomes absolutely critical—every tenth of a butterfat percentage point matters more now than it has in years.

Smaller Producers: Cash flow is everything. Adjust your budgets for September and October milk checks, which may be significantly lower than what you have budgeted. Consider whether operational changes are necessary at these price levels—perhaps the expansion project is delayed or the equipment purchase is postponed.

Regional co-op field staff are reporting more hedging conversations with producers than they’ve seen in years. When farmers who’ve never hedged before start asking questions about risk management, that tells you the psychology is shifting.

The Uncomfortable Truth About Where We’re Headed

Here’s what’s keeping me up at night about today’s action—this wasn’t just a bad day, this was a fundamental shift in market psychology. Butter’s 6-cent drop breaks the bullish momentum we’d built going into summer, and the cheese market’s complete shutdown suggests buyers see more weakness ahead.

According to USDA weekly data, we’re seeing inventory builds in some categories that suggest demand isn’t keeping pace with production, even as we move past the spring flush period. That’s not a great sign for price support going forward.

What’s really concerning is that this is all happening while feed costs are actually moderating. That indicates the pressure is primarily on the revenue side, which makes margin management even more critical for survival.

The market is essentially telling us that the optimism of early summer was overdone. Export demand isn’t materializing as expected, domestic consumption is steady but not inspiring, and production—while seasonally declining—isn’t falling fast enough to balance things out.

This development is fascinating from a global competitiveness standpoint. Our butter is now genuinely competitive internationally, but our powder pricing has pushed us out of several key markets. That creates this weird split personality for the industry—great for butterfat, terrible for protein values.

Here’s my honest assessment… we’re looking at a fundamental reset in pricing that could persist through the back half of 2025. The fundamentals haven’t disappeared—global demand for dairy products remains solid, U.S. production efficiency continues to improve, and we’re still the most reliable supplier for many key markets. But in the short term? It’s about cash flow management and survival.

The producers who’ll thrive through this period are the ones who recognize that this isn’t just a temporary dip—it’s a new reality that requires different strategies. Risk management is no longer optional; it’s essential. Feed cost control isn’t just good business, it’s survival.

What gives me hope is that this industry has weathered worse storms. We adapted to the 2014-2015 downturn, survived the trade war disruptions, and navigated the COVID chaos. We’ll figure this one out too, but it will require some tough decisions and smart risk management.

The conversation we need to be having isn’t about when prices will recover—it’s about how to structure our operations to be profitable at these levels. Because until the global supply-demand balance shifts significantly, this might just be the new normal we’re dealing with.

How are you adapting to these new market realities? What strategies are working on your operation? This isn’t just about surviving the next few months—it’s about positioning for whatever comes next.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

  • Dairy Farming on a Budget: 12 Frugal Strategies for Tough Times – This guide delivers practical strategies for protecting your bottom line during price downturns. It reveals proven methods for reducing feed costs and optimizing herd health, directly addressing the margin squeeze highlighted in today’s market report.
  • The Dairy Industry’s 5 Biggest Risks and How to Manage Them – Go beyond daily volatility and understand the major long-term threats to your operation. This strategic overview provides a framework for building a comprehensive risk management plan, preparing your dairy for challenges far beyond today’s market fluctuations.
  • The Top 7 Dairy Technologies That Are Reshaping the Industry – When milk prices fall, driving efficiency becomes critical. This forward-looking piece explores the cutting-edge technologies revolutionizing dairy management, demonstrating how to leverage automation and data analytics to unlock new levels of productivity and secure your farm’s future.

Join the Revolution!

Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Weekly for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.

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CME Daily Dairy Market Report for July 22nd, 2025: Butter Drops, Cheese Stays Silent

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025

Butter just dropped 2.25¢ but smart farmers locked $1,250/month feed savings. Here’s what most missed about today’s CME action.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Look, I get it – seeing butter tank 2.25¢ in one session makes your stomach drop. But here’s what caught my attention while everyone else was focused on the wrong thing: the real opportunity today wasn’t in milk prices, it was in understanding why cheese went completely silent with zero trades. That tells me processors aren’t desperate, which actually sets up better pricing dynamics heading into fall flush. The Class IV-III spread just hit levels we haven’t seen in months – we’re talking about $1.50+ difference that creates real hedging opportunities most producers are missing. Meanwhile, our butter’s trading almost a dollar cheaper per pound than European competitors, opening export windows that could support domestic pricing through Q4. Current USDA projections show modest production growth, but regional basis levels suggest tighter supplies than the headlines indicate. If you’re not actively managing this spread and locking feed costs while they’re stable, you’re leaving money on the table during one of the most interesting market setups we’ve seen all year.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Lock 60-90 days of feed costs immediately – With corn holding at $4.225/bu and meal stable around $284.90/ton, your milk-to-corn ratio sits above 4.0 (historically profitable). This window won’t last if harvest weather turns, and you can’t afford both milk prices AND feed costs moving against you simultaneously.
  • Capitalize on that $1.50 Class IV-III spread through flexible pricing – Work with your co-op to price portion of fall milk against Class IV structure. These historically wide spreads normalize fast, and current butter export arbitrage suggests Class IV support through winter months when heating season kicks in.
  • Use zero cheese trades as your crystal ball – When both blocks and barrels see no activity, it signals processor inventory comfort and upcoming demand uncertainty. Smart producers are establishing price floors now with DRP or put options while premiums are reasonable, before this silence breaks one direction or another.
  • Regional advantage play in Upper Midwest – Excellent crop conditions point to feed cost relief this fall, creating margin cushion if milk prices soften. Combined with current basis levels holding steady, this creates perfect setup for aggressive component optimization and heat stress management through peak summer.

Today’s session was one of those head-scratchers that remind you why dairy trading keeps us all humble. Butter dropped over two cents, whey declined sharply, and cheese saw no trading activity – not a single block or barrel changed hands. If this weakness persists for even a week, it could result in a reduction of $0.20-$0.30 from your August milk check. The actionable move right now? Consider locking in feed costs while they remain stable and review your risk management strategy. The Class IV-III spread is currently at historically wide levels, creating hedging opportunities that many producers are not capitalizing on.

The What: Today’s Numbers at a Glance

CommodityClosing PriceDaily ChangeVolume (Loads)Bids / OffersWhat It Means
Butter$2.48/lb-$0.022553 / 5Direct pressure on Class IV pricing
Cheese Blocks$1.64/lb(Unch.)01 / 0Market standoff – nobody’s talking
Cheese Barrels$1.66/lb(Unch.)00 / 1Same story as blocks
NDM Grade A$1.30/lb+$0.002513 / 4Only bright spot – export demand holding
Dry Whey$0.55/lb-$0.015012 / 5Your Class III headwind right here

Feed Costs: Corn (Dec) held steady at $4.225/bu, soybean meal (Dec) at $284.90/ton, showing modest stability. Milk-to-corn ratio still comfortable above 4.0 – that’s profitable territory for most operations.

The Bottom Line: Mixed signals with butter and whey weakness offset by NDM strength. That cheese silence is the real story, though – when blocks and barrels both see zero trades, it means buyers and sellers are miles apart on where fair value sits.

The Why: What’s Really Driving These Markets

Domestic Dynamics – The Inside Story

The silence in the cheese market suggests that processor inventories are comfortable —not bursting at the seams, but adequate enough that nobody’s desperate to buy. Food service demand has been steady but unspectacular – honestly, the back-to-school buying season hasn’t kicked in yet, and that’s when we usually see some real movement.

Here’s what struck me about today’s trading floor dynamics. Butter had five offers chasing just three bids – that’s a clear indicator of seller pressure if I’ve ever seen one. Whey showed similar imbalances, with five offers and only two bids. When you get big moves on thin volume like this (and we’re talking really thin), it creates volatility in both directions.

The thing is, butter’s seeing some typical post-July 4th softness as retail buyers work through holiday inventory. Nothing dramatic, but enough to take some of the steam out of recent gains.

Global Competition – Where We Stand

Here’s where things get really interesting from a competitive standpoint. Current market patterns suggest we’re running a significant discount to European and New Zealand butter – the kind of spread that should theoretically open export doors. However, here’s the catch… logistical challenges persist, despite our competitive pricing.

The flip side? Industry sources suggest our NDM is running a modest premium over both European skim milk powder and New Zealand product. Not huge money, but enough to make price-sensitive buyers think twice. Mexico remains our biggest customer – that relationship has held strong – but even they’re becoming more selective about pricing.

What’s particularly noteworthy is how this plays out regionally. That butter discount should help West Coast plants with their Pacific Rim export programs, assuming they can sort out the logistics. However, Upper Midwest cheese plants may face headwinds if the NDM premium starts affecting powder sales south of the border.

Production Reality – Summer Heat Taking Its Toll

Summer heat stress is tracking pretty much exactly what you’d expect seasonally. Nothing dramatic, but per-cow output is definitely declining in the heat belt states. Recent USDA data suggest that national production is running modestly below year-ago levels, which isn’t surprising given the challenges producers are facing.

Regional reports suggest varied production patterns – some Midwest operations appear to be running below prior-year levels while Southwest regions face the usual seasonal heat challenges. California has been managing its own water and regulatory situations, which keeps its numbers relatively steady.

The national dairy herd remains relatively stable, according to industry estimates, with most producers in a wait-and-see mode due to current margin uncertainty. Can’t blame them… when you’re not sure which direction feed costs or milk prices are heading, expansion decisions get a lot tougher.

The What’s Next: Futures Signals and Key Things to Watch

Futures Market Structure – Reading the Tea Leaves

Current August Class III futures are trading in the $17.40-$17.60 range, while Class IV futures hold closer to $19.00. That $1.50+ spread tells you everything about where the market’s confidence sits right now – clearly believing in the butter/powder story over cheese/whey.

Looking at the curve, October and December contracts suggest a seasonal tightening ahead, although uncertainty remains about the timing of that strength. The forward curve structure appears reasonable, given typical seasonal patterns, but there’s definitely some hesitation about how robust the fall demand will really materialize.

Critical Watch Points – What Keeps Me Up at Night

Cheese Market Resolution: The big question is whether this silence persists through the week. If it does, we’re likely setting up for a bigger directional move once someone finally blinks. These standoffs don’t usually last forever.

Butter Support Test: Prices need to hold above $2.40 to maintain confidence. Break that level, and honestly, the selling could accelerate pretty quickly.

Whey Continuation: If this weakness persists, it will become a significant anchor, dragging down Class III pricing heading into the fall. That’s not what producers want to hear right about now.

Feed Cost Stability: Harvest weather remains the wild card that nobody’s talking enough about. Current crop conditions appear decent nationally, but regional variations are significant this year – larger than usual.

Market Sentiment Indicators

There’s growing chatter about global arbitrage opportunities given our butter positioning versus international competitors. Several contacts have mentioned increasing concern about the NDM pricing premium – that gap versus competitors is becoming harder to ignore in international markets, especially when buyers have alternatives.

Industry sources suggest some processing facilities are considering maintenance scheduling during traditionally slower periods, which could temporarily affect regional milk demand and basis levels. Nothing concrete yet, but it’s the kind of timing decision that can matter.

The What to Do: Actionable Strategies for Your Operation

Immediate Actions – This Week

Lock Feed Costs Now: With corn holding steady and soybean meal showing stability, this might be your window to secure a portion of your feed needs through harvest. Local basis levels look reasonable in most regions, and you really don’t want both milk prices and feed costs moving against you simultaneously. Trust me on this one.

Review Risk Management: That wide Class IV-III spread creates opportunities many producers are not capitalizing on. If your co-op offers flexible pricing programs, it’s worth discussing how to price milk in relation to the stronger Class IV structure. These spreads don’t persist forever – they have a way of normalizing when you least expect it.

Near-Term Hedging Considerations

Downside Protection: With fourth-quarter futures still above $18.00, Dairy Revenue Protection or put options could establish reasonable price floors. Current option premiums aren’t unreasonable given the volatility we’ve been seeing lately.

Cash Flow Timing: Class IV’s relative strength suggests that butter/powder plants may be more aggressive in their procurement timing. If you’re in a region with multiple plant options, those monthly payment differences could actually add up to real money.

Operational Focus Areas – What You Can Control

Production Efficiency: This is where you focus when markets get confused – component quality, cow comfort during heat stress, and feed conversion efficiency. Markets will eventually sort themselves out, but you want to be positioned to benefit when they do.

Regional Opportunities: If you’re in the Upper Midwest, crop conditions look excellent right now. That should translate to more affordable feed costs this fall, which could help cushion margins if milk prices soften further.

Risk Scenarios – Thinking Through What-Ifs

Here’s what I’m thinking through… if cheese weakness spreads, Class III futures could test support levels around $17.00. Consider establishing a floor now while premiums are still reasonable. If butter finds support here, those export arbitrage opportunities could strengthen Class IV pricing through the fall. But if feed costs spike unexpectedly, that comfortable milk-to-corn ratio could erode quickly.

Regional Intelligence: What’s Happening Where It Matters

Upper Midwest – Wisconsin and Minnesota producers are feeling today’s uncertainty the most

Local basis levels have held reasonably well – most plants are still paying modest premiums over the base price – but there’s definitely less aggression in spot bidding. Processors appear content to wait for a clearer understanding of demand patterns.

The silver lining? Crop conditions across the region look absolutely excellent right now. Corn’s developing well, and current weather patterns suggest we’re heading toward a strong harvest. That should translate to more affordable feed costs this fall and winter, which could help cushion margins if milk prices continue to soften.

Had a conversation with a producer near Eau Claire last week who put it pretty well: “We can handle these milk prices if feed costs cooperate. But if both move against us at the same time, margins get uncomfortable real fast.”

Southwest – Heat and Feed Cost Pressures

Heat stress and elevated hay costs are creating margin pressure that’s becoming hard to ignore. Local alfalfa is running $50-$75/ton above what futures would suggest – that’s real money when you’re talking about the volumes most operations need.

The drought conditions in some areas aren’t helping matters. Water costs, power costs for cooling systems, everything seems to be trending higher just when you’d prefer some stability.

West Coast – Export Potential vs. Logistics Reality

That butter export arbitrage should theoretically benefit Pacific Rim-focused plants, but the logistics headaches continue to limit opportunities. Port congestion, container availability, freight rates… it’s all still a nightmare that can neutralize even the most competitive pricing.

Still, some plants are finding ways to make it work. The price spreads are significant enough that creative logistics solutions become worthwhile.

The Real Bottom Line

The dairy business has this way of humbling everyone just when we think we’ve got it figured out. Today reminded us that markets don’t always trade fundamentals in the short term… sometimes they just go sideways until something forces a decision.

What’s the key takeaway here? Vigilance on that Class IV-III spread and proactive feed cost management are your best tools for navigating the current market imbalance. The fundamentals still look reasonably supportive – domestic demand is adequate, export opportunities exist when logistics cooperate, and production growth remains modest.

But markets are markets… they’ll do what they want to do regardless of what we think makes sense. The trick is positioning yourself to benefit when clarity finally emerges.

Stay flexible out there. Focus on what you can control – your cost structure, your production efficiency, your risk management strategy. The market will eventually sort itself out, and when it does, you want to be ready.

Do you have questions about today’s moves or would like to share what you’re seeing in your region? The conversation continues in our producer forums. And if this kind of daily market intelligence helps your operation, consider subscribing to The Bullvine – because in this business, information is the difference between surviving and thriving.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

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Dairy Markets Face Wild Swings Amid Trade Tensions

Sunday, February 9th, 2025

Dairy markets experienced unprecedented turbulence this week as trade tensions rattled the industry. The March Class III futures contract swung dramatically, moving more than $1 daily amid U.S. trade disputes with China and temporary détente with Mexico and Canada. Record cheese exports and shifting production patterns signal more volatility ahead.

Summary:

The dairy markets experienced unprecedented volatility this week amid escalating trade tensions. The March Class III futures contract demonstrated extreme instability, swinging more than $1 daily, while a 30-day trade détente with Mexico and Canada provided temporary relief. However, a new 10% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports sparked retaliation, though China notably spared dairy products.  Market impacts were immediate, with CME spot prices declining across commodities – nonfat dry milk fell 1.5¢ to $1.33 per pound, Cheddar blocks dropped 1.75¢ to $1.86, and barrels decreased 3¢ to $1.78. Despite these challenges, U.S. cheese exports hit record levels in December, up 21% year-over-year, though milk powder exports slumped 23% to their lowest December level since 2016.  The industry faces continued uncertainty as Mexico threatens higher tariffs on U.S. cheese if trade tensions resurface next month.

Key Takeaways:

  • March Class III futures experienced extreme volatility, swinging more than $1 in a single day on Monday, from 39¢ down to 71¢ up.
  • The U.S., Mexico, and Canada agreed to a 30-day trade détente, while the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. China retaliated but notably excluded whey and soybeans from tariffs.
  • CME spot prices declined across major dairy products: NDM fell 1.5¢ to $1.33/lb, Cheddar blocks dropped 1.75¢ to $1.86, and barrels decreased 3¢ to $1.78.
  • U.S. milk powder exports fell 23% year-over-year in December 2024, reaching the lowest December level since 2016.
  • December milk powder production was down 15% from the previous year, with 2024 total production dropping 13% to the lowest level since 2013.
  • Cheese production patterns shifted significantly in 2024: Gouda jumped 30.2%, Mozzarella rose 3.6%, while Cheddar fell 6.1%.
  • U.S. cheese exports hit record levels in December at 97 million pounds, up 21% from December 2023, with exports using 8% of total production in 2024.
  • Mexico dominated cheese exports, with shipments 30% higher than 2023, accounting for 38% of total U.S. cheese exports.
  • U.S. dairy heifer numbers have reached their lowest point since 1978, suggesting potential future supply constraints.
  • The Zisk app forecasts improved profitability for dairy farms in 2025, particularly for larger herds in the Southeast and Northeast regions.

A cheesemaker inspecting cheese wheels during the aging process, showcasing the careful monitoring required in cheese production amid current market volatility

Wild price swings hit dairy markets this week as trade tensions flared up. The March Class III milk futures contract moved up and down by more than $1 in a single day on Monday, showing just how uncertain things are right now. 

Trade Situation 

The U.S. made a 30-day deal with Mexico and Canada to pause new tariffs while they worked on border issues. Things with China are different – the U.S. put a 10% tax on Chinese goods, and China hit back with taxes on some U.S. products. For now, China isn’t taxing whey or soybeans, but that could change. 

Market Prices Today 

CME Spot Price ChangesPriceChange
Nonfat Dry Milk$1.33/lb-1.5¢
Cheddar Blocks$1.86/lb-1.75¢
Cheddar Barrels$1.78/lb-3¢

Uncertainty has pushed dairy prices lower across the board. Nonfat dry milk dropped 1.5¢ to $1.33 per pound, marking its lowest point since August. Cheddar blocks fell 1.75¢ to $1.86, while Cheddar barrels went down 3¢ to $1.78. 

Production Changes 

Cheese Production Changes 2024% Change
Gouda+30.2%
Mozzarella+3.6%
Cheddar-6.1%

Cheesemakers are shifting their production strategies significantly. Gouda production has surged by 30.2%, and Mozzarella output increased by 3.6%, setting new records. Meanwhile, cedar production has fallen by 6.1%. These changes reflect a move toward products that are popular with foreign buyers or ready for immediate consumption. 

December Dairy Export MetricsChange vs 2023
Total Cheese Exports+21%
Milk Powder Exports-23%
Cheese to Mexico+30%
Share of Production Exported8%

Total cheese exports hit a record in December at 97 million pounds. However, milk powder isn’t performing as well, with production falling 15% in December and exports dropping 23% to the lowest December numbers since 2016. 

What This Means for Farmers 

The outlook contains both positive and negative elements for dairy farmers. Larger farms in the Southeast and Northeast might see better profits in 2025. Cheese exports remain strong, especially to Mexico. However, due to trade uncertainty, farmers face significant challenges with unpredictable milk prices. There’s also concern that Mexico might tax U.S. cheese if trade talks go badly. 

Smart Moves for Farmers 

To handle these challenges, farmers should consider looking for different places to sell their milk and focus on producing high-quality components like fat and protein. Using futures contracts to protect against price drops and keeping up with market news and changes are essential strategies. Feed costs need careful watching, too. 

The dairy market is tough right now, but farmers who stay informed and plan will be in the best position to handle whatever comes next.

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Cheese Prices Surge Amid Declining Butter: CME Dairy Market Analysis for January 28th, 2025

Wednesday, January 29th, 2025

Dairy markets show mixed signals as cheese prices climb while butter hits 2025 low. Farmers face a complex landscape with Class III futures rising and Class IV dipping. Dive into our latest market report to understand the trends shaping your bottom line and strategies for navigating these choppy waters.

Summary:

The dairy market on January 28, 2025, showed different trends. Cheese prices increased while butter prices dropped to their lowest this year at $2.5000 per pound. This suggests either too much butter or less demand. Cheddar Block prices increased by 2 cents to $1.8900 per pound, and Cheddar Barrel prices rose by 2.5 cents to $1.8650 per pound. Nonfat Dry Milk and Dry Whey stayed steady. The future looks brighter for cheese, with higher Class III milk futures, but butter has challenges. Dairy farmers must adapt to these changes.

Key Takeaways:

  • Butter prices have reached their lowest in 2025, posing potential challenges for producers.
  • Cheddar cheese prices are rising, indicating a positive outlook for cheese producers.
  • The futures market suggests more substantial pricing expectations for Class III milk, benefiting cheese-focused operations.
  • Dairy farmers are encouraged to adapt to market fluctuations for sustained success in 2025.
  • Diversification and strategic decision-making are crucial as market dynamics shift.
dairy market trends, cheese prices rise, butter prices decline, Class III futures, CME spot market

On January 28, 2025, the dairy market had mixed conditions: strong cheese prices and the lowest point for butter prices. The CME spot market saw Cheddar prices increase while butter declined, reflecting the complex dynamics in the dairy industry. 

Spot Market Analysis 

 FinalChange ¢/lb.TradesBidsOffers
Butter2.5000-3.00863
Cheddar Block1.8900+2.00010
Cheddar Barrel1.8650+2.50010
NDM Grade A1.3475NC001
Dry Whey0.6975NC001

The CME spot market on Tuesday revealed divergent trends across dairy commodities. Butter prices declined, reaching $2.5000 per pound, 3 cents lower than the previous price, marking the lowest price in 2025. This decline occurred despite active trading, with eight loads changing hands, indicating a possible oversupply or weakened demand in the butter market. 

In contrast, the cheese market showed signs of resilience. Cheddar Block prices rose by 2 cents to close at $1.8900 per pound, while Cheddar Barrel prices increased by 2.5 cents to settle at $1.8650 per pound. Despite no trades being recorded for cheese, the price increases suggest a positive sentiment in the market. 

Butter weekly average: $2.5150, down from $2.5250 last week 

Other dairy commodities remained stable, with Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) Grade A holding steady at $1.3475 per pound and Dry Whey maintaining its price at $0.6975 per pound. Both products showed negative weekly trends: NDM’s average decreased to $1.3500, and Dry Whey’s average dropped to $0.7088. 

 MonTueWedThurFriCurrent Avg.Prior Week Avg.Weekly Volume
Butter2.53002.5000–––2.51502.525013
Cheddar Block1.87001.8900–––1.88001.80199
Cheddar Barrel1.84001.8650–––1.85251.82504
NDM Grade A1.34751.3475–––1.34751.35000
Dry Whey0.69750.6975–––0.69750.70880

Futures Market Insights 

 MonTueWedThurFri   
Class III (FEB) $/CWT19.9020.360.000.000.00   
Class IV (FEB) $/CWT.20.6020.300.000.000.00   
Cheese (FEB) $/LB.1.8671.90100.000.000.00   
Blocks (FEB) $/LB.1.7921.84900.000.000.00   
Dry Whey (FEB) $/LB.0.68950.70280.000.000.00   
NDM (FEB) $/LB.1.361.35750.000.000.00   
Butter (FEB) $/LB.2.592.57000.000.000.00   
Corn (MAR) $/BU.4.82254.85250.000.000.00   
Corn (DEC) $/BU.4.57254.61250.000.000.00   
Soybeans (MAR) $/BU.10.45510.45750.000.000.00   
Soybeans (NOV) $/BU.10.437510.48250.000.000.00   
Soybean Meal (MAR) $/TON323.50302.100.000.000.00   
Soybean Meal (DEC) $/TON322.60323.700.000.000.00   
Live Cattle (APR) $/CWT.204.175207.450.000.000.00   

The futures market provided a brighter outlook for dairy farmers, especially in the cheese sector. Class III milk futures for February saw a significant boost, rising by 46 cents to $20.36 per hundredweight. This increase indicates higher price expectations for milk utilized in cheese production. 

February Class III milk futures: Up 46 cents to $20.36 per cwt 

Cheese futures mirrored the positive trend in the spot market, with blocks increasing to $1.8490 and barrels to $1.9010. This upward movement indicates growing optimism among market participants regarding cheese production and consumption. 

Nevertheless, some sectors did not share a positive outlook. Class IV milk futures, closely tied to butter and powder markets, experienced a slight decline, settling at $20.30 per hundredweight. This decline corresponds to the decreasing butter prices seen in the spot market. 

Market Implications for Dairy Farmers 

For dairy farmers, the current market conditions offer both challenges and opportunities: 

  • Butter producers may experience margin pressure from decreasing prices, especially those heavily dependent on butterfat sales.
  • Cheese producers and farmers focused on fluid milk sales can find encouragement in the positive trends in Cheddar prices, which rose by 2 cents, and Class III milk futures, which saw a significant boost of 46 cents.
  • The stagnant NDM and Dry Whey markets suggest that farmers closely monitor demand conditions for these products.

“The divergence between butter and cheese markets highlights the importance of diversification for dairy operations. Farmers who strategically adjust their production focus by shifting towards cheese production can benefit more from the current market strengths in the dairy industry.”

The Bottom Line

Farmers must remain adaptable and vigilant as the dairy market continues to evolve. While the butter market faces headwinds, the positive momentum in cheese and Class III futures offers a silver lining for the industry. Remaining informed about market trends and proactively adjusting strategies will be crucial for successfully navigating the evolving dairy landscape in the upcoming months.

Review Bullvine’s dairy market updates regularly to stay ahead of market fluctuations and adjust your production strategies as needed. 

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Bullvine Daily is your essential e-zine for staying ahead in the dairy industry. With over 30,000 subscribers, we bring you the week’s top news, helping you manage tasks efficiently. Stay informed about milk production, tech adoption, and more, so you can concentrate on your dairy operations. 

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Class III and Cheese Futures Show Strength Amid Trading Volume Surge: Dairy Market Insights

Friday, January 10th, 2025

Discover the rise in Class III and Cheese futures trading. What does this mean for dairy farmers? Check out the market insights and trends affecting the dairy industry.

Summary:

There was a lot of activity this week in the dairy market, with over 1,100 Class III and 613 Cheese futures contracts traded. Spot cheese prices hung between $1.85 and $1.95, while block cheese prices dropped slightly. Rising dry whey futures helped balance things out. Butter futures broke out of a six-week range, ending at $2.60 thanks to renewed buyer interest. Meanwhile, Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) futures weakened, staying balanced but with lower trading volumes. These changes show expected and unexpected shifts, nudging dairy farmers and industry players to stay sharp and adjust to the changing market. Remember, “Be wary of a market that is not doing what you think it should be doing.”

Key Takeaways:

  • Class III and Cheese futures experienced noteworthy trading volumes, indicating active participation in the market.
  • The spot cheese market is stable, with products being cleared between $1.85 and $1.95, suggesting a consistent demand and supply equilibrium.
  • Butter futures showed resilience, closing at $2.60, propelled by renewed interest from end-user-type futures buyers.
  • NFDM futures and spot prices experienced weakness, illustrating a competitive yet balanced trading environment.
  • Overall, the Class III milk market exhibits modest strength despite fluctuations in spot cheese prices.
  • The dairy market faces potential fluctuations due to various external factors, yet growth opportunities remain prevalent.
dairy market trends, Class III futures, cheese prices, butter market dynamics, milk pricing fluctuations

Imagine this: a few years ago, trading more than 1,100 Class III contracts in a week seemed unlikely in the dairy world. But now, as we start 2025, that’s precisely what’s happened. This significant rise, which surprised both market insiders and observers, indicates a new confidence level in Class III milk prices and cheese futures. It shows the market’s strong momentum, even as the nation remembered former President Jimmy Carter. For the dairy industry, it’s a signal that substantial changes are underway, with more significant developments occurring beneath the surface. 

ContractVolumePrice RangeRecent Change
Class III Futures1,100$20.59 – $20.92+$0.06 – +$0.08
Cheese Futures613$1.85 – $1.95-0.0175
Butter FuturesN/A$2.60 – $2.81Steady
NFDM Futures112$1.36 per pound-0.0050

A Vibrant Surge: Examining the Energetic Flows in Class III and Cheese Futures 

The dairy market is buzzing, especially with Class III and cheese futures. The substantial increase in trading, with over 1,100 Class III and 613 Cheese futures contracts traded this week, underscores the decisive engagement of traders and its impact on market dynamics. This is crucial for dairy farmers and the entire industry. For farmers, it means they can anticipate changes in milk prices and demand, with Class III futures providing a glimpse of future milk values. The strong February and March futures prices, at $20.92 and $20.59 per hundredweight, signify a potentially robust market directly impacted by the surge in trading activity in Class III and cheese futures. 

These shifts exemplify how economic factors such as supply chain disruptions, global demand fluctuations, and government policies influence production levels, pricing dynamics, and stakeholders’ decision-making within the dairy sector. The interest in cheese futures could mean cheese demand is changing, which has previously pushed record highs in Class III futures. 

The current trading levels in Class III and cheese futures show a strong market with potential. This market strength helps everyone involved make smart decisions about the future, instilling optimism and hope.

Balancing Act: The Role of Spot Cheese Prices in Market Stability 

The spot cheese prices are between $1.85 and $1.95 per pound, showing a “comfortable” market. This balance of supply and demand means the market is healthy and stable. Right now, everyone seems happy with these prices. When they stay like this, traders think these levels are fair. This keeps the market steady without too much or too little cheese. As a result, both buyers and sellers likely feel confident in making deals, which supports ongoing market activity. 

Importance of Spot Prices: 

  • Benchmark Level: The $1.85 to $1.95 range serves as a guide for forecasting future trends. Price fluctuations beyond this range could signal shifts in demand or supply challenges within the dairy industry.
  • Market Indicator: Stable prices here often indicate healthy supply chains, providing insights into production and consumption rates.
  • Trader Sentiment: Traders use these prices to shape strategies, manage risks, and plan contracts with this data in mind.

For those looking to profit, seeing spot cheese prices go above $1.95 is key. Exceeding this price point could increase trading activity and impact the futures market. This might indicate higher demand or limited supply, suitable for those with a positive outlook. However, it is recommended to be cautious when prices remain relatively stable without significant increases. As seen in domestic cheese demand, it can uniquely impact futures, given the global market conditions. Keeping these influences in mind helps stakeholders plan and prepare for changes that might affect the market. If prices stay steady, those involved will closely monitor any hints of a significant change. Paying attention to details reveals underlying factors that prices alone may not immediately show. 

The Butter Bounce: Navigating the Recent Uptrend in Futures

Butter prices have been rising lately. They closed at $2.60, a jump from their six-week range of $2.45 to $2.58. The increase is due to more end-users purchasing futures, which indicates their confidence in the market’s strength and growth potential. 

California, a major dairy producer, produces less milk, meaning less butter is available. This scarcity in supply contributes to maintaining high prices, illustrating the direct influence of demand and supply on the current market situation. 

Butter futures have increased recently, especially for the second quarter, which closed at just over $2.81. This suggests that demand will stay strong despite tight supplies, matching the market’s expectations. 

This scenario highlights how demand and changes in supply, like those in California, affect butter prices. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making smart moves in the butter market.

Nonfat Dry Milk: Navigating the Delicate Balance of Market Fluctuations

The futures of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and spot prices have dipped, showing some weakness. However, even though prices are down, the futures curve is holding steady, offering a bit of calm in these unpredictable times. This week, spot prices dropped by 0.50, reaching the lower end of their recent range. Only 112 futures contracts were traded, but the number of open interest grew by 78, indicating interest still exists. 

Looking closer, global prices are affecting the NFDM market. U.S. prices are higher than those around the world. This means we might see a drop in U.S. prices. Still, the market is unpredictable, and things can change quickly, so it’s good to be cautious about unexpected moves. While U.S. powder prices can decrease, awareness of surprising market behavior is essential. 

The slow movement in NFDM highlights influences like international competition and local market trends. Because of specific U.S. factors, the future could follow global patterns or go its own way. Keeping up-to-date with credible sources, such as previous reports, can help you make informed decisions in this constantly evolving market, giving you control over your choices.

Navigating the Waves: Class III Milk’s Resilience in a Shifting Market Landscape

Class III milk prices are rising well in the fast-changing dairy market, even with some challenges. This strength comes from increased demand and changes in supply needs. February and March futures prices have increased to $20.92 and $20.59 per hundredweight, adding six and eight cents, respectively. This rise shows that market players are feeling more confident. 

Several factors are pushing prices up. New cheese plants need more milk, making spot milk supplies tighter. This is clear at this time of year as more plants start up. Competition over the milk supply is making the market busier. 

The recent cold weather after the holidays significantly impacted milk flows and supply chains. The USDA reported that regional spot milk prices jumped to $0.50 per hundredweight over class, a substantial increase from before. This sudden price jump, caused by the weather-induced disruption in supply chains, is a clear example of the supply and demand forces affecting Class III milk prices. 

These changes show the supply and demand forces affecting Class III milk prices. With new processing and environmental shifts, monitoring these trends is essential. The current situation presents a market with promising opportunities and challenges where implementing innovative strategies could yield positive results. Understanding these trends is key for those in the dairy business to handle market changes.

As the Week Wraps Up: Navigating Dairy Market’s Intriguing Shifts 

Over the week, there have been some changes in the dairy market. Here’s what’s happening: 

  • Spot Blocks: They closed at $1.8975 per pound, down by $0.075, and stayed below $1.90. Even so, Class III contracts went up, showing some hope. Three lots were traded, pointing to a careful but active market.
  • Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM): Prices dropped slightly, ending at $1.3650 per pound, down half a cent. Five loads were traded, and this slight decrease highlights the ongoing ups and downs in pricing due to factors both here and abroad.
  • Barrels and Butter: These prices stayed steady at $1.8700 and $2.6000 per pound, respectively. Butter’s steadiness is noteworthy because there has been interest in buying, which might mean stable prices.

These shifts are significant for dairy farmers. The drop in NDM prices might cut profits, but steady butter prices help balance things out. Even though cheese prices are under $1.90, the demand for Class III milk looks strong, which is a good sign despite market changes. Keeping an eye on these numbers is crucial for planning and making wise choices in the future. 

Ripple Effects: How External Factors Influence Dairy Market Trends

The dairy market depends on supply and demand, but sometimes, outside events can change things. This week, to honor former President Jimmy Carter, agricultural markets closed early. A brief pause like this can affect trading volumes and the market’s feelings. With less time to trade, there are often fewer deals as traders focus on urgent needs or wait for regular hours. 

Honoring a past president can make traders cautious, influencing their market outlook and decision-making processes. Despite this, more than 1,100 Class III contracts and 613 Cheese contracts were traded, showing some market strength. However, many traders were careful because the occasion was special. 

Economically, holidays and memorials can cause a backlog in market activities. Once they’re over, there’s typically a rebound as everyone catches up, similar to when manufacturers resume work after holidays. 

Although the key parts of the dairy market are still important, events like these can create ripples that affect both short-term actions and long-term market perceptions.

The Bottom Line

This week in the dairy markets, shifts in Class III and cheese futures, changes in butter prices, and interesting movements in nonfat dry milk have been seen. We’ve noticed shifts in Class III and Cheese futures, changes in butter prices, and some interesting movements in Nonfat Dry Milk. Class III milk has held firm, showing its resilience against outside pressures. Everyone in the dairy industry needs to stay updated and adaptable. Balancing local and global factors needs a smart strategy to handle market changes and plans. We want you to be part of the conversation—share your ideas and predictions in the comments. 

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CME Dairy Market Update: Block Cheese Rebounds Amid California Milk Challenges

Monday, January 6th, 2025

Check out the latest CME dairy market trends. How’s California milk production affecting cheese prices? Find insights and strategies for dairy farmers now.

Summary:

The CME Dairy Market report for January 5th, 2025, showcases a recovery in Class III and Cheese futures following a recent sell-off spurred by limited cheese supply and decreased California milk production due to bird flu. Tight inventories have prompted increased block cheese prices since early December, with block cheese reaching $1.9200. The market is stabilizing, partly aided by steady dry whey prices, supporting Class III pricing. Although fluctuating prices persist, butter may see upward movement if key levels are exceeded. Meanwhile, the NFDM market attempts to align with significantly higher U.S. prices than global ones, which are affected by unique production challenges. Overall, producers should leverage current conditions amid prevalent market volatility.

Key Takeaways:

  • The CME dairy market has shown resilience, recovering in Class III and Cheese futures despite previous fluctuations.
  • Block cheese prices have rebounded significantly, suggesting potential market adjustments to supply constraints.
  • Tight cheese inventories and demand dynamics influence market movements and price settings.
  • Dry Whey prices remain stable, contributing to the steadiness of Class III futures.
  • The butter market shows signs of potential upside momentum, pending key price levels being surpassed.
  • NFDM prices in the US have diverged from global trends due to unique supply challenges, notably bird flu impacts.
  • Market attempts to establish equilibrium prices across commodities, reflecting broader production and demand trends.
CME dairy market, dairy prices surge, Class III futures, cheese market stability, tight inventories impact, block cheese prices, dry whey stability, butter market trends, global dairy influences, dairy sector recovery

Imagine waking up to a 30% spike in the price of your morning coffee. That scenario unfolds in the CME cheese market, where prices have surged by nearly 30 cents to $1.9200 since early December. This isn’t just a minor fluctuation; it’s a significant signal of the dairy sector’s current state, affecting producers and consumers. Today’s CME Dairy Market update is a vital resource for dairy farmers grappling with supply and demand challenges. Key factors such as the bird flu’s impact in California and the shifting production capacities are pivotal in shaping the economic landscape for dairy producers. Understanding the impact of tight inventories and global influences on the market is essential for effective planning and success in 2025.

CommodityCurrent Price (as of Jan 5, 2025)Price Change since Dec 2024Market Trend
Block Cheese$1.9200+$0.30Rising
Barrel Cheese$1.8750+$0.28Rising
Dry Whey$0.70–Stable
Spot Butter$2.5525+$0.05Volatile
NFDM$1.30-$0.02Rangebound

Resilient Rebound: The CME Dairy Market’s New Year Revival

As of January 5th, 2025, the CME dairy market shows promising signs of recovery and balance. Class III and Cheese futures have rebounded after the New Year’s Eve drop, indicating a shift toward stability. Prices have modestly climbed with lighter trades, a notable change in this volatile market. The block/barrel average has slightly risen to $1.8750, with block cheese at $1.9200. This reflects the industry’s efforts to adapt to December’s price movements, where spot block cheese gained 30 cents in three weeks. This underscores the market’s ability to adjust to supply constraints and active demand, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook for cheese futures.

Unraveling the Surge: Block Cheese’s 30-Cent Rebound 

The recent jump in block cheese prices, rising nearly 30 cents in three weeks, is primarily attributed to several key factors. Firstly, new cheese production capacities promised to ease supply issues but haven’t been delivered yet, leading to tighter supply and higher prices. 

Another challenge is boosting milk production amid uncertainties. This is primarily due to the bird flu that hit California, causing a 9.2% drop in November. Since California is crucial for US dairy, this affects the cheddar supply and raises prices. 

The bird flu impacts raw milk supply and hits cheddar production, which struggled last year. With inventories tight due to production gaps and strategic management, the market is sensitive to demand shifts, sparking the current price surge. 

Understanding these challenges involves grasping the current market dynamics and balancing significant and minor economic forces. Balancing immediate market needs and long-term plans is crucial as the industry adapts. Understanding market dynamics is crucial for navigating the dairy market’s delicate balance of demand and supply.

Navigating Tight Supply: The Cheese Market’s Delicate Dance with Demand

As we examine the supply and demand dynamics in the current cheese market, tight inventories have played a crucial role in influencing price movements. The recent uptick in block cheese prices, evidenced by a nearly 30-cent gain, underscores a significant shift in market conditions driven by supply constraints and active demand. 

The limited availability of cheese inventories has been a notable factor on the supply side. Several potential reasons contribute to these reduced inventory levels. A primary concern is the higher costs of money, which have likely led stakeholders within the cheese pipeline to maintain minimal stock levels to avoid further financial strain. When capital costs are elevated, businesses may limit their holdings, only responding and replenishing inventories when necessary. This conservatism in stock management can amplify the effects of demand fluctuations on prices. 

Although not reaching unprecedented levels, the consistent demand for cheese has increased prices. Consumers and industry players alike have shown persistent interest, fueled perhaps by the perception of potentially scarcer supply in the near term. This demand-pull scenario suggests that even moderate increases in cheese consumption can significantly influence prices when inventories are constrained. 

The interplay between these supply constraints and consistent demand explains why cheese prices have continued to rise despite expectations of production capacity expansions. Demand still reigns supreme in the delicate balance of market forces, driving prices as traders navigate these choppy market waters. 

Strategic Rally: Navigating Class III and Cheese Markets Amid Supply Constraints

Recent market developments have been notable, especially with the swift Christmas rally in Class III and cheese prices. This shows how the market is trying to handle supply issues and unexpected challenges like the bird flu. Class III price increases show a balance between supply problems and strong demand. Futures markets play a vital role here, helping buyers and sellers find a “price area” that makes sense. The cheese market aims for a range between $1.85 to $1.95, indicating where things might settle soon. 

  • Class III & Cheese Prices: Experienced a swift rise after Christmas.
  • Equilibrium Pricing: Futures markets help stabilize prices.
  • Target Range for Cheese: Set between $1.85 – $1.95.

While cheese prices have been in the spotlight, Dry Whey has remained stable, staying in the mid-70 cent range for two weeks. This stability is crucial as Dry Whey supports Class III pricing. It helps keep Class III prices steady when cheese prices fluctuate, adding predictability to a usually unpredictable market.

Butter Market on the Brink: Awaiting the Next Big Leap

Recent movements in the butter market have sparked interest among traders and dairy farmers. In December 2024, spot Butter prices fluctuated between $245.000 and $258.000, ending the month at $255.250. This suggests a potential for price increases. There’s been growing market momentum hinting at future upward movement. Think of it as a pot close to boiling—ready for more action. If prices break past $258.000, we could see a significant rise. Despite a slight dip last week, technical signs point to stability, with $2.50 as a potential price floor unless California’s milk production picks up. California’s milk output is critical; a recovery there might ease supply pressures and stabilize the market. For now, the butter market is on standby, watching for signs that could either confirm current steadiness or push prices up. It’s a scenario where every change is closely watched, offering caution and opportunity.

NFDM Market’s Balancing Act: Navigating Unexpected Price Gaps 

The Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) market is interesting, especially with US prices nearly 20 cents above global Skim Milk Powder (SMP) prices. This difference is mainly due to the Bird Flu outbreak in California, which produced 50% of US milk powder in 2023. Supply worries are overshadowing usual demand changes, creating this price gap. Yet, NFDM futures have remained stable since October as the market looks for a balance between supply issues from avian influenza and demand. Right now, that balance is in the high $130s. We’ll have to see if things change or stay steady in the coming months.

The Bottom Line

The first week of January 2025 has been eventful for the CME dairy markets. We’ve seen cheese futures bounce back and a delicate balance of supply and demand affecting prices. Bird Flu’s impact on California’s production and strong cheese and butter market dynamics highlight essential shifts. Are the current trends surprising you? How have they influenced your views or strategies in dairy trading? Please share your experiences with us! Your insights can spark new understandings and discussions. 

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The Grinch’s Effect: Milk Prices Plummet Amid Dairy Market Turmoil

Thursday, December 19th, 2024

Explore the impact of plummeting milk prices on dairy farmers. How will market shifts and production changes shape the future of the dairy industry?

Summary:

In an unexpected turn of events, the dairy market is tumultuous as milk prices tumble, raising eyebrows across the industry. The recent decline in Class III futures, amidst stagnant cheese trade and fluctuating butter markets, paints a complex picture for stakeholders. As futures volumes show mixed signals, investors grapple with understanding the intricacies behind these shifts. Meanwhile, the November Milk Production report promises to provide crucial insights into regional production dynamics, mainly as California deals with bird flu impacts and other states ramp up cow numbers. From interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to global pricing trends, each factor is critical in shaping dairy markets’ current and future landscape. The dairy industry faces a significant drop in milk prices, causing lower earnings and market disruptions. The drop in milk prices is mainly due to market and environmental factors, with California’s milk output dropping by 3.8% from the previous year. Planned farm expansions and the growth of dairy herds are helping offset some of these issues, as US dairy farms added about 46,000 cows between July and October, a 0.5% increase.

Key Takeaways:

  • Class III futures experienced a notable decline, indicating market volatility and the potential impact on dairy pricing for farmers.
  • The California bird flu outbreak led to a significant drop in milk production, highlighting regional challenges affecting the national dairy market.
  • Strategic farm expansions to fill new cheese plants signify possible growth despite high costs and interest rates.
  • Global price disparities in cheese and butter position the U.S. as a competitive exporter, potentially influencing trade dynamics.
  • Market signals, such as declining open interest in futures, may suggest profit-taking rather than long-term bearish trends.
  • Despite market challenges, opportunities for innovation and expansion in U.S. dairy production remain strong.
dairy industry trends, milk price drop, Class III futures, California bird flu impact, spot cheese market, dairy herd expansion, milk production forecast, US dairy farms, global dairy market analysis, economic viability in dairy

As the holiday season nears, the dairy industry is grappling with a significant drop in milk prices, reminiscent of the Grinch stealing the season’s cheer. This decline leads to lower earnings and significant market changes for dairy farmersand supply chain workers. However, the industry’s strategic planning and resilience are key in navigating these challenges. An industry expert noted, “The unexpected drop in milk prices has thrown the industry into chaos, posing a major challenge for those who depended on steady and predictable markets.” This situation prompts us to delve into the causes of these market disruptions and how the dairy industry will manage this volatility. Pursuing these answers is crucial as they may reshape strategies and plans for 2025, instilling a sense of reassurance and confidence in the industry’s future.

Navigating the Choppy Waters of the Dairy Market: Trends and Signals for 2025 

The dairy market is experiencing many ups and downs. One leading indicator, Class III futures, which help predict milk prices, recently dropped to $19.85, indicating some uncertainty. This change is partly due to issues like the bird flu in California, which has reduced milk production in that area. 

Spot cheese sessions are adding to the market’s complexity. A recent quiet session saw no block trades, even though there were offers. This lack of activity suggests that traders may have less interest or uncertainty because they are waiting for essential reports, such as the USDA’s monthly milk production report, or reacting to economic signals like interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve. These reports and signals can provide crucial information about the current and future state of the market, influencing traders’ decisions and market activity. 

Other essential factors include changes in the spot markets for butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and dry whey. Recently, prices for NDM and dry whey went down, along with small reductions in butter prices. Globally, US butter and cheese prices are more competitive than international options, which affects both spot prices and futures here at home. 

These trends are significant because they impact milk pricing. Class III futures help predict milk revenue. Their decline suggests possible challenges for dairy farmers managing their profits. Similarly, the prices of cheese and butter can show the balance—or lack of it—between supply and demand in the market. 

This blend of futures, spot trading, and production factors shapes the current market outlook. As traders and farmers await key reports on milk production and other economic indicators, these trends underscore the need for vigilant monitoring in the dairy industry. This careful observation of market trends will ensure that everyone in the industry is alert and prepared for potential changes.

From Bird Flu to Barn Boosts: Navigating the Challenges and Opportunities in the Dairy Industry

The drop in milk prices is mainly due to several market and environmental factors affecting today’s dairy industry. One big issue is the California bird flu outbreak, which has cut down the state’s milk production. This outbreak has significantly reduced the number of cows available for milking, thereby reducing the overall milk output. In October, California’s milk output dropped by 3.8% from the previous year, and it’s expected to fall further, possibly between 7% and 10%, in November. This sharp drop shows how sudden health problems can disrupt milk production. 

On the other hand, planned farm expansions and the growth of dairy herds are helping to offset some of these issues. US dairy farms added about 46,000 cows to their herds between July and October, a 0.5% increase. This shows that dairy producers are eager to scale up despite challenges like raising interest rates and high costs for replacement cows. These expansions are critical to meet the demand from new cheese processing plants, which will need many more cows to run efficiently. These changes might lead to more milk being available next year, which could keep prices stable or even lower them if more milk is needed. 

The market is becoming unpredictable, with California producing less milk and adding more cows due to farm expansions and new processing requirements. The ability to produce more milk suggests that, at least for now, milk prices could stay low as more milk hits the market. Those in the dairy industry watch these changes closely, paying attention to upcoming data and reports for more clues about what’s happening. Whether these factors will work together to help dairy farmers or if supply and demand problems will continue to cause price stability issues.

Decoding the Global Dairy Maze: Navigating Price Disparities and Market Dynamics

The US dairy market offers lower prices for key products like cheese, butter, and NDM/SMP than other countries. For example, the US offers lower prices for cheese: $1.82 per pound, compared to New Zealand’s $2.12 and Europe’s $2.24. This makes US cheese more appealing to international buyers, boosting its exports and market presence globally. 

But the story changes with butter. US butter prices are much lower at $2.51 per pound compared to Europe’s $3.54 and New Zealand’s $2.93. This price gap helps the US attract buyers who want cheaper butter and might not choose more expensive options from Europe or New Zealand. 

Global prices are dropping in the NDM/SMP market, but the US maintains a steady margin. New Zealand and Europe saw their prices drop by 3% and 2%, respectively. With the US price at $1.22 per pound, this global price drop may challenge US exports, possibly squeezing profits for producers trying to keep or grow their market share worldwide. 

These price differences impact US dairy exports in many ways. While reasonable prices in cheese and butter offer export opportunities, changes in NDM/SMP prices need to be closely monitored. US dairy producers must adapt to global price trends to maintain their competitive edge in changing international markets. 

Federal Reserve’s Role: Examine the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts and their implications for the dairy industry. Discuss how changes in interest rates influence farm operations, expansion plans, and overall market sentiment.

The Futures Market: A Meticulous Compass

The futures market acts like a barometer, helping us gauge sentiments and predict future trends in the dairy industry. Let’s examine the recent changes in open interest and trading volumes for Class III, Cheese, and Dry Whey futures. 

  • Open Interest Dynamics: Open interest reflects the number of active contracts and offers key insights into market sentiment. Recently, Class III open interest went up by 233 contracts, while Cheese futures saw a decrease of 59 contracts. This mix can indicate different views in the market, but it might also suggest traders are cashing in after a strong trend. Falling open interest and prices don’t always signal a negative outlook. Instead, it could mean traders balance their investments after a price increase, showing trust in the market’s potential.
  • Trading Volumes and Market Signals: Trading volumes spiked, with over 2,700 Class III and 1,100 Cheese futures traded, highlighting increased interest. This activity matches a day without spot price changes, which might cause future price changes once bidding starts again actively. Interestingly, the Cheese market’s fall in open interest, particularly in January, may show long positions exiting, indicating a settling down after a substantial price surge. 
  • Potential Bullish Indicators: Looking at the big picture, the Class III and Cheese futures scene suggests positive signals might be just under the surface. Although prices have dropped recently, the strategic shifts and open interest changes reflect a temporary pause instead of a complete decline. This ‘long liquidation,’ as it’s called, can often lead to a rebound if the market’s basics are sound. 
  • Market Consolidation Trends: The current phase seems to be one of settling down, with prices stabilizing after big swings. This balance paves the way for future rallies, supporting the idea of continued interest in Class III and Cheese futures as long as market conditions stay favorable. On the other hand, Dry Whey futures increased in open interest. Still, they saw a price decline, hinting at possible challenges if market support weakens. 

The futures market is ever-changing, where shifts in open interest and trading volumes reflect and impact market sentiment. Understanding these nuances gives us a glimpse into potential positive trends and settling phases, which are crucial for predicting the future path of the dairy market.

Riding the Milk Wave: Regional Shifts and Strategic Expansions in US Dairy Production

The milk production scene is changing fast, with different regions facing unique challenges and opportunities to expand herds. On one hand, California is experiencing a drop in production due to droughts and issues like bird flu. Reports show a 7% to 10% decrease in monthly production, highlighting the area’s struggles with environmental and health issues, which threaten the supply stability in the western dairy belt. 

Meanwhile, dairy operations in Texas, Kansas, and South Dakota are growing. This is mainly due to strategic expansions to meet the increasing demand for cheese, boosted by new processing plants with higher milk absorption capacity. The addition of 46,000 dairy cows over three months shows a strong push to enhance milk production. As these areas grow, we wonder: Can this rise balance California’s shortfall, and how will this affect the broader dairy scene? 

The prospects for adding more cows look good, but there are hurdles. The industry’s ability to bring 350,000 cows to use new processing facilities entirely depends on expansion costs, heifer availability, and the economy. Interest rates, construction costs, and heifer supply are key in deciding the expansion’s pace and scale. Despite these challenges, ongoing expansions show farmers are actively working to take advantage of market shifts. 

Looking forward, the expected increase in cow numbers might help stabilize supply and ease the variations caused by regional production differences. However, this potential growth could also impact milk prices. As herds grow and production capacity rises, there’s a chance of oversupply, possibly pushing prices down if demand doesn’t match. This situation calls for careful planning as industry players balance increasing production to meet new processing needs while keeping prices stable for profitability and sustainability. 

Ultimately, the future of milk production and prices will depend on how well the industry adapts to these changing conditions, balancing regional production, herd expansions, and market demand to ensure growth without losing economic viability.

Pushing Boundaries: Turning Dairy Farming Challenges into Catalysts for Innovation and Growth 

There are several significant challenges in dairy farming. One major issue is the high cost of replacement cows and the lack of heifers. Farmers face high prices that are pushing their budgets. Buying replacement cows has become expensive because there aren’t enough to meet demand. Also, not having enough heifers makes it hard for farmers to grow and improve their herds. 

Despite these challenges, there are opportunities for growth and change. The market’s uncertainty can encourage farmers to rethink their business methods. New technologies in dairy management can make operations more efficient and cut costs. Innovations in feed and herd management can help farmers get the most out of what they already have, allowing them to manage high costs better. 

Additionally, farmers can earn more by making value-added products like artisan cheeses, butter, and yogurt. Creating products that cater to the rising demand for organic and local dairy presents more ways to make money. Working together through partnerships and cooperatives can share resources, reduce financial risks, and take advantage of economies of scale. While the challenges are significant, farmers can succeed by adapting strategically and using innovation. 

The Bottom Line

The complex world of dairy dynamics, driven by bird flu issues, strategic cow increases, and unstable cheese futures, presents a mix of uncertainty and opportunity. The ups and downs in Class III futures and changing global dairy prices show the worldwide threats and opportunities facing US dairy producers. This interconnectedness raises essential questions: Are our current plans strong enough to face future crises at home and abroad? Can we use new herd management techniques and market predictions to create a steady future for players in the dairy industry? As we look ahead to the coming year, the challenge is to use these insights to navigate the ups and downs, ensuring sustainability and growth. We’re eagerly awaiting market changes and strategic moves—will the dairy sector prepare in advance or handle things carefully as they come? 

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Unveiling the Whey Revolution: December’s Surprising Surge in Dairy Markets

Friday, December 6th, 2024

Witness December’s dairy market surprise! Whey’s unexpected rise is driving Class III futures. Explore key insights today.

Summary:

The CME Dairy Market Reports of December 5th, 2024, reveal a dynamic shift in the dairy sector, with dry whey futures experiencing a significant rally while spot prices hold steady, directly influencing Class III futures amidst declining cheese values. Despite cheddar price dips, cheese exports to Mexico remain robust. The market exhibits divergent trends, with US dry whey supplies tightening, contrasting with EU markets and revealing a stark difference in butter import-export activities. As whey prices surge, prompting a reevaluation of market strategies, the intricate link between whey and Class III futures highlights potential profit margin enhancements despite input cost pressures. Concurrently, NFDM shows unexpected gains, and strategic planning becomes crucial to navigate potential volatility, which is complicated further by the bird flu outbreak‘s agricultural impact. The industry’s growth and stability pivot on addressing these evolving challenges, underscoring whey as a pivotal market force.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dry Whey futures experienced a significant rally, closing limit up in multiple contract months amidst unchanged spot prices.
  • Protein demand, driven by health trends, has led to decreasing sweet, dry whey stocks in the US, in contrast to a less robust EU market.
  • Class III futures have seen a bullish impact from Dry Whey trends despite mixed movements in cheese prices.
  • Spot butter prices remained steady, yet futures markets responded with declining enthusiasm.
  • NFDM futures diverged from global trends, maintaining a premium in the US, pointing towards potential short-term stability.
  • Export dynamics show that US cheese exports are robust, particularly to Mexico, while butter imports have risen sharply.
  • Dairy cow slaughter numbers increased significantly year-over-year, impacting supply dynamics.
dairy industry, whey revolution, whey prices, Class III futures, milk components, dairy producers, export markets, global dairy market, bird flu outbreak, agricultural sector

The sudden surge of whey, a usually overlooked component in the dairy industry, has unexpectedly taken center stage, causing market disruptions beyond anyone’s anticipation. This surge is not just a blip on the market charts; it signifies the beginning of a ‘whey revolution’ reshaping the dairy industry. Whey, often considered a byproduct, has become a key player, compelling dairy farmers and industry professionals to reassess their market strategies and production priorities. The stakes have never been higher for those in the dairy sector, as the soaring whey prices demand immediate attention and adaptation. As whey prices skyrocket, dairy farmers face a transformed landscape, presenting both opportunities for profit and challenges in balancing whey production with traditional dairy outputs. For industry professionals, the task lies in leveraging this shift to optimize operations and capture market share, as the implications of this ‘whey revolution’ reverberate through every level of the dairy supply chain, necessitating strategic transformations for competitive survival.

Whey: The Unexpected Diva of the Dairy Market

This week, dry whey futures have emerged as the undeniable star of the dairy market, stealing the spotlight from other commodities. Despite spot prices maintaining a steady balance, the futures have been propelled to impressive heights. The surge reflects a confluence of factors, predominantly the tightening of supplies and a robust demand landscape. Industry insiders suggest that these constraints mainly drive the market’s dynamics, indicating increased bullish sentiment among traders. 

While spot-dry whey has remained stagnant, not experiencing the fluctuations mirrored in futures, the divergence highlights an essential dichotomy in the market dynamics. Futures, often a window into market sentiment and expectations, reveal an underlying tension that spot prices have yet to absorb fully. The market’s heightened sensitivity to supply and demand alterations has thrust whey into the limelight, indicating a keen interest and prioritization of stocks among buyers who perhaps feared being left out of an upward trend. 

As dry whey takes the lead in the dairy market this week, it underscores a broader narrative within the dairy sector that highlights the pivotal role of proteins and their evolving market dynamics. As the ripple effects of this surge continue to unfold, industry stakeholders are left to ponder whether this buzz will solidify into long-term market shifts or merely represent a transient chapter. This uncertainty underscores the need for strategic planning and foresight in the face of potential long-term changes in the dairy market.

Whey’s Ripple Effect: Fueling Class III Futures

The surge in dry whey prices has significantly imprinted Class III futures, demonstrating the intricate link between these two market components. Every penny increase in dry whey contributes six cents to Class III futures. This mathematical relationship underscores whey’s substantial influence within the broader dairy pricing structure. Over recent weeks, the market has witnessed a notable uptick in whey prices due to tightened supplies, driving Class III futures up to $19.12 per hundredweight. 

This price hike unfolds a complex economic scenario for dairy producers. On one hand, the increased value of milk components, driven by rising whey prices, can enhance profit margins. However, the accompanying cost pressures on inputs and operational expenses pose challenges that must be carefully managed. Therefore, the convergence of higher whey prices and elevated Class III futures demands strategic planning from producers to navigate potential volatility. 

The ripple effects extend beyond immediate producer economics. As processors and manufacturers grapple with these shifts, there could be downstream impacts on product pricing, potentially affecting consumer markets. Additionally, competitive dynamics in export markets might adjust as US cheese exports leverage strong domestic pricing to assert a robust international presence.

Cheese: Navigating Market Swings and Export Expansions

The cheese market continues to capture attention, particularly in recent movements in spot cheddar prices and impressive export figures. Spot cheddar prices recently reversed, witnessing a decline, with blocks and barrels seeing price reductions of 3.5 and 2.5 cents per pound, respectively. This shift in spot prices indicates a market recalibration that may influence trading behaviors as participants respond to fluctuating price signals. 

Conversely, the export front presents a more buoyant narrative. US cheese exports surged, reaching 88.8 million pounds in October—a 12% increase from the previous year. This growth is predominantly driven by increased demand from key partners like Mexico, which imported 38 million pounds. This uptick highlights a strengthening export relationship and suggests a positive demand trajectory in international markets. 

The dip in spot prices is attributed to an accumulation phase in the domestic market, where buyers operate at current levels without aggressive purchasing activities. On the other hand, robust exports underscore an external demand buoyant enough to offset some domestic price pressures. Nonetheless, this dual narrative of dipping domestic spot prices and climbing export volumes creates a dynamic interplay likely to affect domestic producers, who strategically leverage international demand to stabilize revenues amidst fluctuating US prices. 

Such trends hold significant implications for the broader dairy industry. While lower domestic prices pressurize margins, vibrant export activities act as a buffer, ensuring consistent demand. This balance between domestic challenges and global opportunities remains critical for the industry’s resilience, particularly as stakeholders navigate ongoing market fluctuations and seek growth avenues beyond traditional markets.

Butter and NFDM: Divergent Paths Amid Market Volatility 

In recent days, the butter market has exhibited notable fluctuations. After an initial recovery, butter futures experienced a decline, influenced by the interplay between spot market stability and trading dynamics. Although spot butter prices held flat at $2.5400, the previous 5.5-cent increase earlier in the week hinted at underlying market firmness. Yet, the absence of vigorous buying interest curbed any substantial upward movement in futures. The rising open interest suggests mounting selling pressures to counteract remaining buy-side hedging activity. As a result, the butter market might stabilize around the mid-$2.50 mark, with potential for short-term holding patterns. 

Conversely, NFDM (Non-Fat Dry Milk) futures displayed a surprising upward trajectory, defying overarching global price signals that suggested weakness. This deviation was marked by a dip in open interest in nearby contracts, indicating a waning interest in the current pricing range. Although technically, a more significant downward correction could occur, the US market maintains a premium over its global counterparts. This stability may lead to a prolonged sideways trading range with limited drastic downsides. Additionally, ongoing concerns about bird flu in California introduce an element of uncertainty, which could influence market dynamics in the coming months. While a significant state-level recovery isn’t anticipated until early 2025, these uncertainties contribute to the complex outlook for NFDM.

Navigating the Dairy Divide: US Versus EU Market Dynamics

The global dairy market is complex. Contrasting conditions between the US and the EU significantly contribute to price dynamics, particularly in the dry whey sector. US dry whey prices have reached unprecedented highs, amplifying the price spread with European counterparts. This disparity in pricing underscores a more robust demand or constrained supply situation within the US market, driving prices upwards. 

However, industry stakeholders face multifaceted challenges that could impact this precarious balance. A pressing concern is the bird flu outbreak, particularly severe in regions like California, which has ripple effects across the broader agricultural sector. If animal health concerns escalate, this situation risks supply chains and export markets. 

Another challenge pertains to the sustainability of these current dry whey price levels. While tight supplies and strong protein demand have buoyed the market, questions remain about the longevity of these conditions. The reliance on diet trends and consumer preferences, such as the popularity of high-protein consumption tied to weight loss products, introduces a degree of volatility and unpredictability. 

The industry’s future growth and stability will depend on effectively addressing these challenges, balancing high demand with mitigating potential threats to supply continuity. Stakeholders are cautioned to consider these factors when navigating the ever-evolving dairy landscape. 

The Bottom Line

The dairy market is witnessing a fascinating phenomenon: dry whey is emerging as the unexpected leader, drastically influencing Class III futures. This surge embodies a broader trend of proteins significantly overtaking fats. As whey prices rally, they bolster futures and invite scrutiny into supply dynamics, raising questions about sustainability, especially when compared with the EU market. As we see class III futures experiencing momentum, the implications of such a shift could be extensive, potentially redefining investment strategies and operational decisions in the dairy sector. 

Meanwhile, cheese and butter exhibit divergent trends. Though the cheese market experiences price fluctuations, it benefits from robust export figures, particularly to Mexico. Butter and NFDM navigate their unique paths amidst market volatility, highlighting the complexity and interconnectedness of the global dairy trade. 

Ultimately, these developments prompt a reevaluation of market priorities and the influence of economic forces on traditional dairy commodities. As stakeholders ponder these shifts, they must consider whether this ‘whey revolution’ signals a fundamental change in market paradigms. How will the dairy industry adapt to these changing tides? Could they continue revolutionizing market dynamics, or will other forces emerge to shape the future? The answers to these questions will significantly impact strategic decision-making in this evolving market landscape.

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CME Dairy Markets Report: Navigating Cheese, Butter, and Futures Fluctuations for October 30th, 2024

Thursday, October 31st, 2024

Get the CME dairy market update. How do cheese, butter, and futures influence your strategy? Stay informed to lead in the dairy industry.

Summary:

On October 30th, 2024, the CME Dairy Markets report highlighted a mix of activity, with block cheese prices dipping slightly and barrel prices rising by 3.5 cents, revealing a complex landscape influenced by multiple signals. Concerns over potential disruptions arose due to avian flu cases in California and Utah, potentially affecting demand trends. December and January Class III futures reached two-month lows, whereas Class IV futures presented a consistent upward trajectory. The spot butter market demonstrated resilience, bolstered by international market influences such as the increase in SGX/NZX powder prices following solid results in the latest GDT Pulse, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments within the market.

Key takeaways:

  • The trading activity in the November-December Class III spread shows significant movements, indicating a strategic focus on short-term market dynamics.
  • Class III and Cheese Futures present mixed signals, reflecting cautious yet active trading patterns among market participants.
  • The NFDM market is experiencing volatility, driven by international influences and fluctuating spot prices, emphasizing the need for strategic navigation.
  • European dairy products maintain a premium price, sustaining global trade interest and serving as a competitive challenge for other regions.
  • Butter’s market resilience is highlighted by its rebound from previous lows, supported by strategic futures trading and robust open interest.
  • Fluctuations in market spreads may signal potential shifts in broader market fundamentals, requiring close observation from stakeholders.
  • Overall, bullish market traction and solid buyer-seller interactions show tempered price fluctuations shortly.
dairy markets, spot cheese segment, block prices, barrel prices, avian flu impact, Class III futures, Nov/Dec spread trading, Class IV futures, spot butter market, international dairy prices

On October 30th, 2024, the dairy markets were in flux, challenging industry norms and sparking speculation. However, the market’s resilience is a testament to its stability. Have you considered how fluctuating cheese and butter prices could impact global trade and your operation’s profitability? As block prices dip by half a cent, barrels rise to $1.9250 per pound, and butter prices advance to $2.7050 per pound. Understanding these market dynamics is crucial for informed business decisions, especially when prices are this volatile.

Fluctuating Trends and External Challenges Shape Dairy Market Dynamics

The market conditions present a mixed bag of activities, especially in the spot cheese segment. Block prices decreased slightly, slipping by half a cent, while barrel prices increased by 3.5 cents. This diverging trend reflects a complex market landscape in which buyers and sellers respond differently to various signals. 

Adding to this complexity, external factors such as the recent avian flu cases reported in California and Utah have cast a shadow over market sentiment. Such outbreaks typically heighten concerns over potential disruptions, impacting demand trends as the year-end approaches. Market participants remain vigilant, assessing how these health-related developments might further influence consumer demand and market dynamics in the dairy sector.

Strategic Trading Patterns: Navigating Class III Futures’ Two-Month Lows

Examining the recent performance of Class III futures, prices for December and January contracts have hit two-month lows. This decline aligns closely with key technical support levels, suggesting potential stabilization points that traders are likely monitoring. The robust trading volume, with over 2,400 contracts exchanged, highlights a significant engagement from market participants. This activity was notably driven by the Nov/Dec spread trading, which saw an impressive 500 trades executed in just one day. 

The dynamics of the Nov/Dec spread trading have had a palpable impact on open interest, showing a unique pattern. By rolling positions from November to December, traders have maintained a steady open interest overall, only increasing by three contracts. However, the shifting interest from November to December indicates a strategic repositioning by traders to optimize their exposure to price movements. This strategic spread trading suggests carefully watching near-term price shifts, with participants positioning themselves to manage potential volatility.

Exploring Divergent Paths: Class III’s Cautious Moves vs. Class IV’s Steady Ascendancy

The Class III futures experienced a complex landscape as the nearby contract slightly advanced to $20.57 per hundredweight, marking a minor increase of five cents. However, the upward movement was juxtaposed with a decline in Q1 prices, which descended to $19.63 per hundredweight, shedding 14 cents. This mixed performance highlights a potential recalibration within the Class III space, indicating a cautious market sentiment trying to balance immediate gains against longer-term uncertainties. 

Conversely, Class IV futures demonstrated a more uniform positive trend. November futures cemented their standing at $21.04 per hundredweight, climbing an additional three cents, while Q1 futures also saw an incremental rise to $21.21 per hundredweight, adding three cents. These steady gains suggest that Class IV products might benefit from more robust demand or tighter supply scenarios, contrasting the more volatile Class III trends. 

The divergence in Class III and IV futures performance could indicate underlying shifts in market demand patterns. While Class III markets are wrestling with variabilities and competitive pressures, Class IV products are riding a wave of steady, albeit modest, positivity. The potential impact on the dairy market could manifest in tactical adjustments by producers and traders, resulting in a strategic shift toward maximizing opportunities within the more stable Class IV domain.

Spot Butter’s Valiant Rebound: A Testament to Market Resilience and Strategic Futures Play 

The spot butter market is exhibiting significant resilience. It recovered from last week’s lows, with prices rising by 1.5 cents to $2.705 per pound. This rebound not only injects optimism into future trading activities but also presents potential profit opportunities. Notably, the futures market has witnessed a commendable level of liquidity throughout 2025, bolstered by the rise in spot prices and strategic trading trends. 

One of the intriguing aspects of current market activities is the initiation of a cash-and-carry trade. This strategy becomes viable when spot prices hover around $2.70 while deferred futures beyond January surpass $2.80 per pound. The cash-and-carry trade is significant as it creates opportunities for market players to lock in profits by buying at current spot prices and selling in the futures market at higher rates. This trend has attracted new market participants on both ends, with buyers eager to secure prices below the speculated $3.00 threshold and sellers strategically leveraging the market’s forward carry. 

The influx of new buyers and sellers testifies to the market’s robustness and traders’ ever-evolving strategies. These new entrants infuse vitality into the trading environment, presenting a dynamic marketplace where informed price locking and speculative selling coexist. Consequently, this lively interaction between buyers and sellers improves the market’s health. 

Furthermore, the recovery in butter open interest is worthy of mention. Across all open contracts, we are almost back to levels reminiscent of 2020 and 2022, highlighting sustained interest and active participation in the market. While open interest does not inherently indicate a directional bias, it underscores a well-balanced arena where willing buyers and sellers find common ground.

Subtle Movements in NFDM Prices: A Cautious Yet Active Market Navigates International Influence

Spot Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) prices have displayed subtle dynamism in recent sessions. They climbed to $1.3950 during trading before settling marginally lower at $1.3850. This slight dip occurred over seven trades, indicating a cautious yet active market. Futures activity surrounding NFDM showed mixed patterns, with price changes holding close to a one-cent fluctuation, reflecting an overall cautious investor sentiment. 

The influence of international markets can’t be overlooked, as seen with the SGX/NZX powder prices continuing to strengthen following a robust performance in the latest GDT Pulse. This international surge propels domestic considerations, presenting potential upward pressure on future NFDM pricing trends. Although domestic futures traded with limited volume—81 contracts post a vigorous Tuesday session—the global market movements highlight a pivotal influence on dairy pricing strategies.

European Dairy’s Premium Edge: A Global Trade Catalyst and Innovative Challenge for Rivals

In our ever-evolving global dairy market, European butter and cheese continue to command significant premiums compared to their counterparts in New Zealand and the United States. This premium positions the European Union (EU) as a crucial player in the international dairy landscape. EU cheese prices are currently averaging $2.46 per pound, markedly higher than New Zealand’s $2.13 per pound and the U.S.’s $1.91 per pound. As for butter, the EU’s average is $3.74 per pound, significantly outpricing New Zealand’s $2.87 per pound and the U.S.’s $2.69 per pound, with all prices adjusted for 80% butterfat. This premium edge reflects the quality and demand for European dairy products. It presents an innovative challenge for rivals to match or surpass these standards to compete in the global market. 

This distinctive price gap has increasingly made the EU a focal point in global trade discussions. The high pricing structure reflects EU dairy products’ perceived quality and stringent regulatory standards, underscoring Europe’s competitive advantage over its global counterparts. Such disparities in pricing invite strategic export opportunities for EU producers, who are poised to capitalize on favorable exchange rates and burgeoning demand in emerging markets where quality is at a premium. 

The implications for global trade dynamics are profound. On the one hand, the EU’s competitive pricing may draw new trading partnerships, especially in regions where consumers are willing to pay more for premium quality. On the other hand, it challenges New Zealand and the U.S. producers to innovate, possibly driving them to enhance efficiency or pivot towards niche markets to maintain relevance. As these dynamics unfold, industry stakeholders must remain vigilant and poised to adapt to shifting consumer preferences and strategic international trade policies.

The Bottom Line

As 2024 unfolds, the dairy market presents a complex tapestry of challenges and opportunities. From fluctuating cheese prices affected by avian flu outbreaks to strategic maneuvers in the Class III futures market, each trend paints a picture of an industry at a critical junction. Butter prices are rebounding, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of market participants. At the same time, Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) displays subtle movements amidst international market influences. European dairy products, maintaining a premium edge, serve as both a catalyst and a challenge in the global market landscape. 

These shifts and strategies prompt us to ask: How prepared is your business to navigate these evolving trends? The intimation of a shifting market suggests pivotal moments where strategic decisions could have lasting impacts. Reflect on your place in this dynamic environment—are you positioning yourself for success? 

We invite you to share your thoughts and engage with this community of dairy professionals. Comment below with your insights, share this article with your colleagues, and foster a dialogue that propels us toward informed and proactive decision-making. Your voice is crucial in shaping the discourse around these developing market trends.

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Navigating the Chicago Cheese Market: Is It a New Bear Market or Just a Correction?

Tuesday, October 8th, 2024

Is Chicago’s cheese market in a downturn or simply adjusting? Tap into strategies and insights for dairy experts now!

Summary:

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is seeing fluctuating market trends in cheese and Class III futures, with a notable sell-off and speculative withdrawals potentially signaling a market correction rather than a bear market. Barrel cheese prices have fallen below blocks for the first time since August, posing questions about the market’s trajectory. Over 3,000 Class III futures have changed hands, creating a 531-contract decline in open interest, highlighting spot cheese’s volatility. Despite a 12% decline in November Class III prices since September, some experts view this as a chance for buy-side hedgers to secure favorable contracts before year-end. The current decline in cheese prices may challenge producers with reduced profit margins, but also offers a strategic entry point for purchasers and hedgers aiming to stabilize costs amidst uncertainty.

Key Takeaways:

  • The cheese market experienced a notable downturn, with speculative traders withdrawing and open interest declining, indicating potential opportunities for buy-side hedgers.
  • Spot barrel cheese has fallen below blocks for the first time since August, causing concern yet also suggesting possible demand responses due to lower prices.
  • Butter market shows signs of stabilization despite overall market volatility, with significant trading activity at the current price levels.
  • The NFDM (Nonfat Dry Milk) market remains stable, demonstrating resilience against external factors like the Bird Flu situation in California.
  • Class III and Cheese futures continue to sell-off, illustrating a market correction rather than a long-term bear market scenario.
  • Despite sell-offs, buyers might find current price levels attractive for locking in future contracts, especially through year-end.
Chicago cheese market, Class III futures, cheese price fluctuations, CME trends, dairy market dynamics, speculative retreats, open interest decline, cheese market volatility, dairy industry insights, hedging strategies

Have you ever observed the dairy market fluctuate and wondered if you were experiencing the beginning of a bear market or just a market correction? Keeping ahead of these trends is critical for strategic planning. The Chicago cheese market, notorious for its frequent swings, has lately piqued our interest. With Class III and Cheese futures seeing large sell-offs and spot barrel cheese falling below the block for the first time since early August, it’s time to reconsider. These changes may considerably affect our operations, necessitating an early evaluation.

“The lack of spot bids has pushed market bulls to retreat, leaving us questioning – what comes next?”

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a significant participant in the dairy industry, has lately shown some notable tendencies. Over 3,000 Class III futures have recently changed hands, resulting in a 531-contract decline in open interest. This change, indicating that investors are abandoning existing holdings rather than creating fresh sell-side activity, poses an important question: Are we on the verge of a new cheese bear market, or is this merely a necessary market correction?

Spot Cheese Prices: Temporary Dip or Long-Term Shift?

The Chicago cheese market has seen significant volatility, with lower spot cheese prices. Last week, block cheese prices remained stable at $1.9475, while barrel cheese prices fell slightly to $1.9325. These adjustments have led to a drop in neighboring Class III futures, putting pressure on the broader cheese market dynamics. These price changes point to a period of speculative repositioning and market corrections rather than a prolonged bear market.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is essential in determining national cheese prices since it is a hub for buyers and sellers to negotiate pricing via futures contracts. Price indications from the CME are critical for dairy farmers and allied companies since they immediately impact income streams and cost-cutting measures. When cheese prices fall, dairy producers may experience reduced profit margins, necessitating production or financial planning changes. On the other hand, businesses that serve dairy farmers may face variable demand due to price variations, altering inventory management, and pricing tactics.

In essence, the CME aids cheese price discovery and impacts market mood, which may affect trading behavior across various dairy commodities. Dairy experts must stay watchful, monitoring CME trends to properly manage the market’s intricacies. This attentiveness will keep us vigilant and responsive to market fluctuations.

Strategic Exits and Speculative Retreats: What Do They Mean for Dairy Futures?

The recent sell-off in Class III and cheese futures raises various issues regarding the market’s present state. Notably, the decline is not just a result of dairy trends but is heavily influenced by market players’ behavior. The noticeable drop in open interest suggests a planned departure by individuals who previously held long holdings. This pattern indicates market reluctance, prompting experts to ask whether it is a momentary downturn or a longer-term repositioning.

Speculative money has played a vital role in this slump. With speculators backing away, volatility has shifted to the negative. Their departure underscores more considerable worries about possible overvaluation and volatile demand dynamics that have yet to be resolved. As market triggers, speculators often amplify moves, and their exit may have far-reaching consequences for future price dynamics.

The downturn in cheese prices, especially from past highs, may have many repercussions for market players. Lower cheese prices reduce producer profit margins, forcing cost-cutting or process optimization methods. However, this fall creates a window of opportunity for purchasers and hedgers. They may use the cheaper pricing to lock in future contracts, stabilizing costs during the uncertainty. This strategic move can empower market players and instill a sense of optimism amid the market fluctuations.

Dairy experts and supply chain stakeholders must watch these shifts strategically. Risk management and foresight will be critical in navigating tumultuous market waves in this complicated context. By actively monitoring these shifts, stakeholders can stay engaged and proactive in their decision-making, ensuring they are well-prepared for any market changes.

Seize the Moment: A Prime Chance for Hedgers Amid Dairy Market Fluctuations

The recent market turbulence in dairy futures creates a unique opportunity for buy-side hedgers. With costs falling dramatically, consumers needing coverage through the year’s end may lock in low rates. This unanticipated fall should not be discounted entirely as the spot cheese market returns to more “reasonable” levels. Instead, it provides an opportunity for strategic purchase and hedging against future rises.

Although current demand has slowed, there is still room for a strong demand reaction. Historically, as prices fall to more reasonable levels, buyer interest increases. Understanding that the dip is driven chiefly by speculative investors pulling back rather than an overwhelming sell-side push shows room for recovery. Short-term price decreases may drive purchases that stabilize the market, causing demand to rise towards the end of the year.

If you’re seeking to fill roles, now could be the moment. Monitor these market movements and determine if they align with your risk management methods and operational requirements. The present dynamics may influence your decision-making and help you make better purchasing selections in the following months.

Cheese vs. Butter and NFDM: A Tale of Market Contrasts.

The present movements in the cheese business are an interesting reflection, and sometimes a stark contrast, to other dairy sectors such as Butter and nonfat dry milk. Let us look into these dynamics.

We’ve seen a significant sell-off due to speculative forces pulling out from the cheese market. This decline has also created possibilities for buy-side hedgers since prices remain more reasonable. On the other hand, Butter has shown tenacity, with spot prices gradually rising, underpinned by a visible trendline and vigorous two-sided trading activity. Butter prices remain stable despite pressures, indicating a market seeking equilibrium, unlike cheese prices, which are now fluctuating.

NFDM gives a different tale. While the cheese market experiences open interest and speculative move variations, NFDM has steadily increased in neighboring futures, indicating calm confidence. This industry is untouched by external turbulence, such as the Bird Flu in California, with a flat price trend, indicating either a solid demand base or ample supply to overcome interruptions.

Butter and NFDM show hints of stability that cheese presently lacks. Butter’s trendline support and NFDM’s constant price indicate established support levels or sustained demand that protects against unexpected drops. This might imply that cheese, which is experiencing a sell-off, would soon follow suit, stabilizing as demand spurs fresh bid interest.

These different actions indicate a possible turning moment in the cheese market. As we go into October, watchers will be looking to see whether cheese will follow in the footsteps of Butter and NFDM’s stability or continue on its present turbulent course. Understanding these market variations enables dairy experts to coordinate their tactics properly.

Are Market Sentiment and Speculation Driving the Dairy Markets?

Have you ever wondered what suddenly spins the wheels of the dairy markets? Much of it boils down to two great forces: market emotion and speculation. When traders and analysts interpret the market as bullish or bearish, it causes waves that may drastically change the pricing landscape. Recently, we saw how withdrawing speculative funds contributed to the sell-off in cheese futures. This is an obvious case of emotion and supposition at play.

Market mood often behaves like the weather—it may not affect the underlying environment. Still, it does influence how individuals respond to that scene. In the near term, this might result in volatility. For example, a rumor or a short-term shift in consumer preferences might cause speculators to enter or exit the market. Similarly, a rapid adjustment in macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates or trade agreements, may significantly influence the market.

While frequently regarded skeptically, speculating is essential to how markets work. It improves liquidity and price discovery. However, speculation may also result in exaggerated price swings, particularly when the herd mentality sets in. This is visible in recent cheese price adjustments and volatility in the Butter and NFDM markets.

How should dairy farmers and industry experts deal with these changes? First, it’s critical to remain current on more significant economic developments and consumer behavior since they often precede fluctuations in market sentiment. Understanding speculative patterns and when to hedge against them may transform volatility into opportunity.

Furthermore, tracking legislative developments, trade laws, and climate data might provide a strategic edge. Farmers and dairy industry experts may also gain insight into possible market moves by speaking with analysts and using data-driven insights. This allows them to foresee better and adjust to future developments rather than get swept along.

In essence, market mood and speculation are complicated but not mysterious. Dairy stakeholders may better navigate the turbulent seas of market pricing if they pay close attention to these aspects and learn to read their signals.

The Bottom Line

The article dives into the present status of the dairy market, concentrating on price swings in cheese, trader departures, and the contrasting performance of commodities such as Butter and nonfat dry milk. The debate critically evaluates whether these moves indicate a bear market or just a correction. A conservative viewpoint argues that, although short-term volatility persists, the market is more likely to face a correction than a persistent decline. This transitory period may provide strategic purchasing chances for individuals prepared to ride the swings. The robust dairy sector may rebound stronger as market sentiment and speculative activity drive these oscillations. The essential issue remains: Is now the moment to take strategic positions, or should we wait until we fully comprehend the broader economic developments affecting these commodities?

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Surging Dairy Prices: Are You Prepared for the Impact?

Friday, August 16th, 2024

Discover the latest dairy market milestones and record highs. How will rising prices impact your farm? Stay informed to make the best decisions for your dairy business.

Summary: Dairy spot markets have reached historic highs, with prices rising faster than ever. CME spot Cheddar barrels have increased by 25% to $2.255 per pound, the highest level in over two years. Butter has also skyrocketed to $3.18 a pound, a record high for this time of year. Nonfat dry milk has seen its value rise to $1.255 per pound, a level not seen in 18 months. The markets are begging for producers to make more milk, but biology limits their ability to respond. However, there is a silver lining: the potential for increased profits. The demand for butter remains strong, even at record-high costs, providing a stable market for dairy products. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) rose 5.5% to $1.255 a pound, its highest level in 18 months. Class III and Class IV futures have performed exceptionally well, reaching life-of-contract highs and posting significant gains. The primary cause of these tremendous gains is a scarcity of milk, influenced by seasonal factors, such as cow stress and increased school demand.

  • Record-high prices for dairy spot markets, especially for Cheddar barrels and butter.
  • Nonfat dry milk reaches levels not seen in 18 months, highlighting the market’s upward trend.
  • Biological limitations hinder immediate production increases, despite growing market demand.
  • Strong butter demand provides a reliable market for dairy products, even at high costs.
  • Class III and Class IV futures reach life-of-contract highs due to milk scarcity.
  • Seasonal factors, including cow stress and school demand, contribute significantly to milk scarcity.
  • Potential for increased profits for dairy producers amidst the tightening milk supply.
dairy market milestones, rising prices impact, dairy business decisions, dairy market soars, milk supply shortages, Class III futures, Class IV futures, skyrocketing dairy prices, tight milk supply, summer stress on cows, global dairy market, Oceania dairy stabilization, Europe dairy stabilization, dairy market turmoil, butter prices soar, cheese market challenges, milk powder market challenges, dairy producers, record harvests, crop yields, dairy profits, dairy expansion, dairy innovation, dairy market analysis, dairy market insights, sustainable dairy future, political uncertainties dairy, dairy costs, dairy production

Imagine waking up to discover that every drop of milk in your storage tanks is suddenly worth more than a week ago. Dairy spot markets are at historic highs, and prices are rising faster than ever. CME spot Cheddar barrels have increased to $2.255 per pound, the highest level in over two years. Butter skyrocketed to $3.18 a pound, a record high for this time of year. Even nonfat dry milk saw its value rise to $1.255 per pound, a level not seen in 18 months. “The markets are begging for producers to make more milk, but biology limits their ability to respond.” With this fast-paced movement, it’s difficult not to pay attention. But amidst this surge, there’s a silver lining-the potential for increased profits. So, what does this mean for you and your operations? How can you leverage this surge to your advantage?

ProductPrice ChangeCurrent PriceHistorical Context
Cheddar Barrels+25¢$2.255 per lbHighest in over 2 years
Blocks+14.25¢$2.10 per lbHighest since January 2023
Butter+8.25¢$3.18 per lbLoftiest since last October
Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM)+5.5¢$1.255 per lbFirst time in 18 months
Whey Powder-1.25¢$0.55 per lbHigher than much of the past 2 years

Skyrocketing Prices Alert: The Dairy Market Soars to New Heights 

Recent milestones in the CME spot markets for cheddar barrels, blocks, butter, and nonfat dry milk have been impressive. The price of Cheddar barrels increased by 25% to $2.255 a pound, reaching its highest level in two years. This spike reflects fundamental market dynamics, with a temporary increase and a large retreat. Similarly, Cheddar blocks significantly rose 14.25˼, driving the price to $2.10 per pound, matching the highest level since January 2023.

Butter has also been increasing in popularity. The price increased by 8.25 percent to $3.18 a pound, the most since October during the pre-holiday surge. Despite the high cost, merchants were busy, swapping 103 cargoes this week alone. More impressively, 51 loadings were reported on Thursday, the biggest since daily trading started in 2006. This demonstrates that demand for butter remains strong, even at record-high costs, providing a stable market for dairy products.

Nonfat dry milk (NDM) rose 5.5 percent to $1.255 a pound, its highest level in 18 months. This shows that demand is recovering, that supply is constrained, or both. However, whey powder did not share the spotlight, declining 1.25 percent compared to last Friday. Despite a slight decline, the current whey price of 55˼ remains much higher than the previous two years.

Class III and Class IV Futures Break Records: Milk Supply Shortages Fuel Market Surge

Class III and IV futures have lately performed exceptionally well, reaching life-of-contract highs and posting significant gains. On Thursday, September, Class III futures rose to $21.81 per cwt, up $1.13 per week. The October contract advanced 84˼ to reach $22. Despite a modest setback on Friday, these data show tremendous development and a promising future for the dairy industry.

Class IV futures traded steadily, with tiny but continuous weekly gains. In September, Class IV increased by 53% to $22.22; in October, it increased by 67% to $22.41. This consistent rise implies that Class III and Class IV are practically comparable, in sharp contrast to the significant discrepancies witnessed in the previous year.

What’s causing these tremendous gains? The primary cause is a scarcity of milk. Seasonal factors, such as cow stress from a hot summer and increased school demand, have considerably influenced milk supply. Additionally, avian influenza in central areas has reduced milk output, further straining the market. This scarcity has forced processors to give up to $3.50 premiums over the already high Class III price for spot milk, the highest ever recorded in mid-August.

Tight Milk Supply: What’s Behind the Sizzling Summer Stress? 

Several converging variables are principally responsible for the limited milk supply. Seasonal stress has been especially tough for cows this year, with high summer temperatures reducing milk output. Have you noticed your herd is suffering more than usual? This seasonal strain is not a tiny blip; it considerably impacts milk production. Avian influenza is another factor that changes the game in this equation. Bird flu may impede milk production, especially in the central United States. The virus decreases productivity in a significant portion of the country’s dairy cows, causing a ripple effect across the industry.

The challenges of raising milk production add another dimension to this complex problem. Heifers are expensive and rare, making increasing herd levels difficult for farmers like you. Even as attempts to stabilize or grow dairy head numbers intensify, the truth remains sobering: many of you are coping with older cows that produce less milk than younger heifers. This aged herd leads to declining yields, limiting its capacity to fulfill market demand. The shortage of milk raises overall expenses. Have you ever wondered why processors are paying up to $3.50 more than the already high-Class III price for spot milk? High demand combined with limited supply sends prices into the ceiling.

Fresh cheddar supply has dropped, resulting in a significant increase in the barrel market. These limits pushed dairy prices significantly higher, changing market dynamics and placing farmers in power. However, this also entails walking a tightrope, balancing rising prices and the constant fight to increase productivity. The market remains positive, and prices are projected to rise as supply limitations continue.

The Global Dairy Showdown: Stabilization in Oceania and Europe Amid Market Turmoil 

The worldwide dairy production situation has been stable. Since August 2023, production levels among the world’s biggest dairy exporters have consistently been lower than in previous years. However, there is hope for stability, especially in Oceania and Europe. Following months of volatility, these areas are now finding their feet and stabilizing their production, providing a sense of reassurance and confidence in the global dairy market.

The struggle for milk powder market share has intensified owing to a significant fall in Chinese imports. As China adjusts its import plans, Oceania and Europe compete to fill the gaps, reshaping global trade maps and adding complexity to the delicate balance of supply and demand.

This increased rivalry emphasizes an important point: although production may be steady in vital places, market dynamics constantly change. Dairy farmers and exporters must be adaptable and ready to respond to changing global trade and consumer needs, fostering a sense of preparedness and proactivity in the industry.

Mixed Market Realities: Butter Soars While Cheese and Milk Powder Face Challenges 

The demand prognosis for different dairy products is varied. Butter demand is high, and this trend will likely continue, given its importance in-home consumption and processed goods. Strong demand has kept butter prices stable despite volatility in other industries.

Cheese, on the other hand, must deal with increasing pricing, which might reduce worldwide demand. The high prices will make U.S. cheese-less competitive worldwide, reducing export quantities. With Europe already catching up, the American race may halt as global customers seek more economical options.

Whey and milk powder are in a challenging situation. High pricing may dissuade the foreign market, mainly when competing with European peers whose recently increased costs. While many dairy sectors have strong local demand, the export market presents a substantial barrier. The present high pricing may be beneficial for immediate profits. However, they may reduce international competitiveness, resulting in a natural ceiling on dairy prices and balancing the market over time.

Record Harvests and Crop Yields: A Boon for Dairy Producers? 

Turning our attention away from the dairy farms and onto the lush fields, the most recent USDA estimates are optimistic. The organization predicts record harvests for corn and soybeans, with a 183.1 bushels per acre corn output. Soybeans are also doing well, with forecasts indicating that output may reach new highs. These stats are not just astounding; they are game changers.

What does this imply for you as a dairy farmer? Feed expenses might take a significant chunk out of your earnings. With such plentiful crops, feed costs are anticipated to stabilize or fall. Lower feed costs imply higher profits, mainly because milk prices are already upward.

While you may be eager to rejoice, it is essential to remember the bigger picture. Cheap feed may increase animal output, affecting meat markets and milk supply dynamics. As you drink your coffee and analyze these estimates, it’s evident that the USDA’s forecast represents a complicated mix of possibilities and concerns. But one thing sticks out: abundant crops have the potential to flip the tide in your favor, making your dairy farming future sustainable and lucrative.

The Bottom Line

Soaring prices and restricted milk supply have pushed the dairy market to new highs. Record-breaking achievements in cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk support the optimistic trend. However, the summer stress on the cows and problems like avian influenza and an aging herd hinder attempts to increase milk output. With worldwide supply deficits and competitive international markets, butter demand remains high. At the same time, cheese and milk powder prices face export hurdles. While producers enjoy high prices, the future remains unpredictable, with supply limits and global market dynamics important in determining pricing and availability.

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CME Cheese Prices Rise as Grain Markets Decline

Tuesday, August 13th, 2024

Find out how higher cheese prices and lower grain costs can increase your dairy farm profits. Ready to boost your earnings today?

Summary: Have you noticed the recent surge in cheese prices? CME cheese markets are on the rise with blocks hitting $2.0200 per pound, marking a two-cent increase, and barrels reaching $2.1600 per pound, a seven-cent jump. This uptick is the highest since October 2022. Meanwhile, butter prices took a slight dip to $3.1200 per pound. These changes in dairy markets are shaking things up! Spot cheese prices gave Class III futures a slight boost with Q4 rising to $20.93 per hundredweight, up eight cents. Meanwhile, Class IV prices climbed to $21.52 per hundredweight, adding 12 cents. The dairy industry is facing market changes that could impact profitability. Cheese prices have reached their highest since October 2022, boosting profits for dairy farmers. However, soybeans fell below the $10 mark and corn contracts dropped to $3.7775 a bushel. Reduced feed expenses can help dairy farmers increase profit margins. To stay ahead, dairy farmers should consider increasing cheese production, hedging bets with Class III futures, managing feed costs wisely, and understanding historical trends and external factors shaping dairy and grain markets.

  • Cheese prices have surged to their highest since October 2022, with blocks at $2.0200 per pound and barrels at $2.1600 per pound.
  • Butter prices have dipped slightly to $3.1200 per pound.
  • Spot cheese prices have boosted Class III futures, with Q4 prices at $20.93 per hundredweight.
  • Class IV prices also rose to $21.52 per hundredweight, driven by strong cheese market performance.
  • Grain markets saw a decline, with soybeans falling below the $10 mark and corn contracts dropping to $3.7775 per bushel.
  • Reduced feed expenses present an opportunity for dairy farmers to improve profit margins.
  • Strategies for dairy farmers: Increase cheese production, leverage Class III futures, manage feed costs, and stay informed about market trends.

Have you ever considered how the newest market developments can affect your bottom line as a dairy farmer? Well, be ready, as the present cheese and grain markets have shocks that can significantly impact your profitability. With blocks increasing to $2.0200 per pound and barrels reaching their highest price since October 2022 at $2.600 per pound, cheese prices are rising. Given Q4 climbing to $20.93 per hundredweight, spot cheese prices have somewhat raised Class III futures. Class IV costs have increased to $21.52 in the meantime. Grain prices are dropping while milk futures are rising. The declining prices of soybeans and maize might impact feed expenses. Are you ready to optimize your earnings by negotiating these changes in the market?

ProductCurrent Price per PoundChangeVolume Traded
Blocks of Cheese$2.0200+2 cents6 loads
Barrels of Cheese$2.1600+7 cents3 lots
Butter$3.1200-2 cents11 loads
Class III Futures (Q4)$20.93 per hundredweight+8 cents–
Class IV Futures (Q4)$21.52 per hundredweight+12 cents–
Soybeans (August)$9.8900 per bushel-23 cents–
Soybean Meal Futures (Sept-Dec)Below $300/ton––
Corn (Nearby Contract)$3.7775 per bushel-5.5 cents–

Have You Noticed the Recent Changes in the Market? Cheese is Getting Pricier! 

Have you seen the current market changes? Cheese prices are rising! While barrels shot to $2.600 per pound, the most since October 2022, blocks of cheese have touched $2.0200 per pound. For a dairy farmer, these increasing rates indicate increased profits.

However, that is not all! Grain markets are sliding as cheese prices rise. Soybeans came under the $10 level, while the local corn contract plummeted to $3.7775 a bushel. These declining grain prices might cut your feed expenses.

What do these market changes mean for your dairy farm? The combination of lower grain prices and higher cheese prices presents a significant opportunity to increase your profitability. By closely monitoring these market changes and making appropriate plans, you can position your farm for increased earnings.

Wondering What This All Means for You? Let’s Break it Down with Some Numbers: 

What does this all mean for you? Let’s break it down with some numbers: 

  • Cheese Prices: Barrels have shot up to $2.600 per pound, while blocks have ascended to $2.0200 per pound. These rates have not been this high since October 2022, indicating a significant increase in profitability.
  • Butter Prices: Butter did not do well; it dropped two pennies to $3.1200 per pound.
  • Milk Futures: Class III futures raised spot cheese prices; Q4 prices increased to $20.93 per hundredweight. Prices in Class IV rose to $21.52 per hundredweight.
  • Soybean and Corn Markets: The August soybean contract sank from $10 to $9.8900 a bushel. September through December, soybean meal futures fell short of $300 a ton. Corn didn’t buck the trend, falling to $3.7775 a bushel.

As a dairy farmer, these figures reflect substantial shifts, and it’s crucial for you to stay updated and adapt accordingly.

Well, These Changes Could Be a Goldmine for Dairy Farmers Like You 

These developments may be a gold mine for dairy producers like you. Allow me to dissect it. Rising cheese costs imply extra bucks per pound for your goods. With blocks reaching $2.0200 per pound and barrels rising to $2.600 per pound, you are looking at some of the best gains since October 2022.

Higher cheese prices immediately increase earnings since it affects the milk price used in cheese manufacturing. Class III futures cost $20.93 per hundredweight and have benefited somewhat. Thus, the milk you utilize for cheese-making gets you more incredible rates. The Class IV futures, which rose to $21.52 per hundredweight even though butter prices dropped somewhat, reflect the same pattern.

They are concerned about how this would affect your feed expenses. The good news is right here. Slipping grain markets implies you will pay less on feed. Both maize prices and soybean futures are declining. The neighboring corn contract dropped to $3.7775 per bushel, while the August soybean contract dropped to less than $10. Reduced feed expenses can help your profit margins even more.

So, What’s Next for You as a Dairy Farmer in Light of These Price Changes? 

What’s Next for You as a Dairy Farmer in Light of These Price Changes?

Consider Increasing Cheese Production: Now could be the ideal moment to concentrate more of your efforts on cheese manufacturing, given blocks at $2.0200 per pound and barrels at $2.1600 per pound. This might involve changing your cow’s nutrition to maximize milk quality for cheese, investing in cheese processing equipment, or investigating new kinds to satisfy consumer demand.

Hedge Your Bets with Class III Futures: Since Class III futures slightly increased, consider locking in these rates to guarantee your income for the following quarters. This might provide a safety blanket against further price swings.

Manage Feed Costs Wisely: Examining your feed expenses is a perfect opportunity since grain prices are sliding mostly in soybeans and corn. Could you buy in bulk at these reduced rates to ensure your herd always has enough? Control of feed costs can help to increase your profit margins.

Review Financial Planning: Given the rising Class IV charges and declining grain prices, now might be an excellent time for a financial check-up. Make sure your budget fits current market circumstances; next, look at financing choices that could provide better terms because of the improved state of the dairy industry.

Maintaining knowledge and adaptability will make a big difference in these fast-changing times. Your dairy farm may leverage these changes in the market to bring significant benefits by carefully modifying your financial plans and output level.

Understanding the Bigger Picture: How Historical Trends and External Factors Shape Dairy and Grain Markets

Knowing the history of the grain and dairy markets would help one understand present pricing movements. Traditionally, variations in feed costs, weather, and supply and demand dynamics have all affected dairy prices. For example, cheese prices peaked in October 2022 before steadily declining; until lately, they have bounced back to exceed $2 per pound.

Other outside elements are also in action. Trade agreements, customer preferences, and geopolitical developments may disturb the market’s stability. For dairy and grain goods, for instance, the trade conflicts between the United States and China caused significant market disturbances.

Conversely, seasonal trends, including planting and harvest seasons and worldwide supply chain problems, significantly affect grain prices. Usually, the spring and summer planting seasons mark the peaks in soybean and corn prices. However, excellent weather conditions, rising crop yields, and an overabundance in the market have helped explain the declining trend in grain prices in recent months.

Monitoring previous patterns and outside variables can help you, as a dairy farmer, better predict market changes and make wise company choices.

The Bottom Line

Now, here is the deal. Rising cheese prices boost Class III futures so that you can find some possibility for higher income there. Although butter prices did drop, Class IV prices did not significantly change. Conversely, grain markets are contracting, which can result in less feed expenses for you. Your dairy farm may benefit financially from these developments. Still, do not rely only on your laurels. Watch these market trends, be educated, be flexible, and, if feasible, seek possibilities. Remain aware. Though the industry constantly changes, you can keep ahead with the proper knowledge and proactive attitude.

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Strange Day in Dairy: Class III Futures Up, Cheese and Grain Markets Down

Thursday, June 20th, 2024

Explore the unusual shifts in dairy markets: Class III futures rise while cheese and grain prices fall. What will the USDA Milk Production report reveal for May?

As the dairy markets reopened after the mid-week break in honor of Juneteenth, a significant cultural event was celebrated annually on June 19 to commemorate the ending of slavery in the United States. Traders and analysts were keenly looking for a clear direction. It was a peculiar day indeed — while the cheese spot market moved lower, Class III futures were higher. Let’s delve into these unusual market movements and unravel the factors.

Understanding the underlying numbers can provide clarity as the dairy markets react to a whirlwind of influences. Below is a snapshot of the current market trends: 

MarketPriceChangeVolume
Class III Futures$18.75/cwt+0.5010,000 contracts
Cheese Blocks$1.8525/lb-0.007513 loads
Cheese Barrels$1.9300/lb-0.01007 loads
Nonfat Dry Milk$1.2075/lb+0.01751 lot
Corn (Dec Futures)$4.5675/bushel-0.075050,000 contracts
Soybeans (Dec Futures)$11.50/bushel-0.125045,000 contracts

Class III Futures Market Sees Surprising Uptick Amid Recent Downward Trends

The Class III futures market saw an interesting uptick despite recent declines. This rebound was a bit surprising. What could be driving this shift?  One possibility is the market catching its breath. After falling prices, minor adjustments and corrections are normal. Traders might see recent lows as too harsh, sparking a buying spree. Expectations of positive news might also play a role, prompting a preemptive move.  Whatever the cause, this uptick adds a new dynamic to an already complex market. Understanding these fluctuations is not just important, it’s crucial to our role as traders and analysts, as it allows us to anticipate and react to market changes.

A Day of Divergence: Cheese Spot Market Buckles Amid Class III Futures Rally

This was an unusual day for the cheese spot market. The cheese sector faced a downward trend despite Class III futures moving higher. ‘Blocks ‘, a type of cheese, dipped to $1.8525 per pound with 13 loads trading. ‘Barrels ‘, another type of cheese, slipped by a penny to $1.9300 per pound with seven lots exchanged.  So, what’s behind this decline? It seems to boil down to supply and demand dynamics and external economic factors. An oversupply of cheese or reduced demand from critical buyers might drive prices down. Economic uncertainties and fluctuations in global dairy trade could also impact the market.

Grain Markets Plunge as Crop Conditions Brighten and Futures Hit Lows Since February

Corn and soybeans saw a significant drop in the grain markets, driven by good crop conditions and ‘technical selling ‘, a strategy where traders sell based on technical indicators rather than fundamental analysis. December futures fell to $4.5675 per bushel, the lowest since February. A positive crop outlook has reassured traders, leading to a wave of selling and pushing prices down.

Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Climb Amid Potential Market Demand Surge and Rising Costs

Nonfat dry milk prices increased to $1.2075 per pound, up $0.0175, with one lot traded. This rise could be due to higher market demand, rising production costs, or shifts in consumer behavior towards dairy products. These elements, along with other factors, will be critical to watch to understand broader dairy market trends.

New Zealand’s Milk Production: A Temporary Decline or a Long-term Trend?

New Zealand’s milk production has declined for the third month. May saw a 4.3% drop year-over-year on a milk solids basis and a 6.2% decrease on a tonnage basis. This might seem concerning, but NZX attributes it to variable weather and pasture conditions.  Despite these drops, the production levels align with the five-year rolling average. So, while the recent declines are notable, they’re part of a long-term pattern with both highs and lows. This decline could have implications for the global dairy market, as New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy products.

The Bottom Line

The dairy markets had an unusual day. While the cheese spot market fell, Class III futures unexpectedly rose, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of the market. Grain markets dropped due to good crop conditions and technical selling, with December futures at their lowest since February. Nonfat dry milk prices rose slightly, hinting at increased demand. New Zealand’s milk production declined for the third consecutive month, sparking questions about future trends. All eyes are now on tomorrow’s USDA Milk Production report for May, a reminder of the constant vigilance required in our field.

Key Takeaways:

  • Cheese spot market prices dropped while Class III futures saw a surprising increase.
  • Grain markets took a significant hit, with December futures for corn and soybeans reaching lows not seen since February.
  • Nonfat dry milk prices witnessed a notable rise, suggesting potential increased market demand or rising production costs.
  • New Zealand’s milk production continued to decline for the third consecutive month due to variable weather and pasture growth conditions.
  • The upcoming USDA Milk Production report for May is a significant watch factor for tomorrow’s market movements.

Summary:

Dairy markets experienced an unusual day, with Class III futures rising unexpectedly and grain markets dropping due to good crop conditions and technical selling. The cheese spot market saw prices drop to $1.8525 per pound and barrels to $1.9300 per pound, driven by supply and demand dynamics and external economic factors. The grain market experienced a significant drop due to good crop conditions and technical selling, with December futures falling to $4.5675 per bushel, the lowest since February. Nonfat dry milk prices increased to $1.2075 per pound, up $0.0175, due to higher market demand, rising production costs, or shifts in consumer behavior towards dairy products. New Zealand’s milk production has declined for the third consecutive month, with a 4.3% drop year-over-year on a milk solids basis and a 6.2% decrease on a tonnage basis. The USDA Milk Production report for May will provide further insights into future trends.

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Flying Through Uncertainty: Domestic Cheese Demand Spurs Record Highs in Class III Futures Amid Global Market Shifts

Saturday, June 15th, 2024

Discover how surging domestic cheese demand is driving Class III futures to record highs. Can U.S. producers keep up amid global market shifts and rising competition?

Robust domestic cheese demand has pushed Class III futures to unprecedented heights. Reflecting worries about U.S. cheese production capacity and intense competition in export markets, third-quarter contracts shot an average of $21.28 per cwt. Attracting new overseas customers will be difficult given that U.S. cheese prices are among the highest worldwide, affecting long-term prospects.

Although high prices discourage new business, domestic consumption lowers cheese inventory. This results in a complicated situation where limited production capacity and competitive exports cause restrictions even as strong demand drives short-term advantages. These dynamics will define present results and future sustainability.

CommodityAvg PriceQty Traded4 wk Trend
Cheese Blocks$1.944517Stable
Cheese Barrels$2.006013Increase
Butter$3.094010Increase
Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.194026Stable
Whey$0.47503Increase

We will investigate the extent and ramifications of these events for the U.S. cheese industry.

Global Shifts: Strategic Cheese Production Adjustments and Their Rippling Effects on the U.S. Market 

RegionProjected Increase (%)Key Factors
Europe3.5%Decrease in fluid milk demand, better margins in cheese production
New Zealand4.0%Higher profitability in cheese, decline in milk powder prices
Australia2.8%Shift from milk powder to cheese due to higher margins
United States2.3%Strong domestic demand, export competition

The global cheese market is undergoing significant changes. USDA experts in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe are anticipating strategic surges in cheese output. This shift is driven by two main trends: a decrease in fluid milk consumption and declining profit margins for milk powder. These forecasts indicate that processors in these regions are adapting to the increased value that cheese markets offer and are prepared to redirect more milk into cheese production. As fluid milk loses its appeal and milk powder becomes less profitable, producers are increasingly focusing on more lucrative cheese manufacturing.

Despite the projected global expansion of cheese production, the U.S. dairy sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Currently, robust domestic demand is driving record Class III futures and high U.S. cheese prices. This resilience, coupled with the strategic changes in the global cheese market, is helping to maintain a positive outlook and keep U.S. cheese competitive in other markets.

The expected worldwide rise in cheese output points to fewer export prospects, even if today’s market supports high local pricing and demand. This might finally influence Class III values and cheese prices, stressing the intricate link between the U.S. market and worldwide production policies.

Weathering the Storm: How Strategic Moves and Climate Trends Propel U.S. Cheese Prices

Several key factors are contributing to the current surge in U.S. cheese pricing. Notably, record-breaking cheese shipments from November through April have significantly impacted American cheese supplies. This decrease in supply, combined with strong domestic demand fueled by effective promotional strategies from major retailers, has further tightened the market.

Grasping the strategic movements and climatic patterns that influence U.S. cheese pricing is crucial. An unusually hot June is forecasted for the Midwest, and adverse weather conditions, including searing temperatures in California and the Southwest, have curtailed milk production. These factors are driving up cheese prices and straining the milk supply, thereby creating an expected but challenging market situation. This understanding empowers policymakers to make informed decisions.

Market Surge: Dynamic Movements in the CME Spot Prices for Various Dairy Commodities

The CME spot market for many dairy products saw noteworthy swings this week. Strong domestic demand and inventory changes drove cheddar barrels, which soared by 6.5 cents to $2.02 per pound. Likewise, Cheddar blocks dropped 12.5 cents to $1.97 a pound, underscoring limited supply and strong demand.

Prices in the whey market remained constant at 47 cents per pound, reflecting robust local demand for high-protein goods despite poor exports. This denotes stability at the extreme of the current range.

Strong worldwide demand for butterfat keeps butter prices high even though they marginally dropped 0.25 cents to $3.09 per pound.

Class III Futures Soar Amid Robust Cheese Demand While Class IV Contracts Retreat

ContractMilk ClassPriceChange
July 2024Class III$20.67+0.75
August 2024Class III$21.13+0.75
July 2024Class IV$21.00-0.30
August 2024Class IV$21.00-0.30

Strong demand for domestic cheese has driven Class III futures to unprecedented heights, with July ending at $20.67 and August closing at $21.13. Driven by strong cheese markets and solid whey prices, this spike contrasts significantly with the fall in Class IV contracts, which dropped almost 30ȼ but still above $21 for 2024.

The higher Class III futures present promising financial opportunities for dairy farmers, encouraging increased milk output. Despite potential obstacles such as low slaughter volumes, high heifer prices, and the risk of disease outbreaks, which could complicate milk production, the potential for financial expansion remains excellent. This optimistic outlook should inspire confidence in the audience.

It is still being determined if high prices are sustainable. Strong worldwide demand for U.S. dairy and climate disruptions might sustain high prices longer than usual, presenting a problematic but profitable scene for dairy farmers, even if the decline in Class IV futures would indicate market corrections.

Butterfat Bonanza: Global Demand and Scarcities Propel U.S. Butter Prices to New Heights

Butterfat components must be raised more drastically to fulfill our need for cream-based goods. American butter prices have been so high that they have raised markets. At the height of the pandemic shortage in October 2022, German and Dutch butter values reached their maximum levels. At last week’s Global Dairy Trade auction, butter peaked at a two-year high and exceeded $3 per pound. Butter melted somewhat on LaSalle Street, sliding 0.25ȼ to a still-buoyant $3.09.

Likewise, the markets for milk powder are consistent. CME spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) concluded at $1.1925, down a negligible 0.25ȼ from the start of the week. Due to decreased output and improved consumer demand in important regions outside China, prices are rising in Europe, Oceania, and South America. Tightened milk supply and higher cheese pricing might increase demand for NDM to strengthen cheese vats in Mexico and the United States.

Dairy Dilemmas: Navigating Financial Strains, Disease Outbreaks, and Climatological Threats 

The dairy industry has significant challenges. Low slaughter levels and high heifer prices point to slight expansion. The bottleneck of diminishing replacement heifers hinders herd increase. The spread of avian influenza throughout the Midwest and mountain regions has further taxed chicken production and indirectly affected dairy operations because of complex agricultural supply lines.

Key dairy areas, including California and the Midwest, are dangerous from a developing heat wave. As cows experience heat stress, high temperatures will reduce milk production. This climatic difficulty strikes when consumer demand for dairy is still strong, aggravating the supply-demand mismatch and maintaining high prices.

These elements—limited herd expansion, disease outbreaks, and lower milk output due to weather—suggest that high dairy prices will last longer than usual. The sector finds this problematic as it aims to raise production to satisfy the high customer demand.

Steady Crops Amidst Market Calm: Limited USDA Updates Leave Commodity Prices Mostly Unchanged

Commodity6/10/20246/11/20246/12/20246/13/20246/14/2024Weekly Change
Corn (per bushel)$4.485$4.485$4.485$4.485$4.485–
Soybean Meal (per ton)$352.90$353.50$355.20$358.60$360.60+$7.70
Wheat (per bushel)$6.060$6.050$6.045$6.040$6.035-$0.025

The USDA’s most recent crop balance sheet report surprised a few people. Unchanged U.S. corn output projections meant that July corn futures were constant at $4.485 a bushel. July soybean meal jumped to $360.60 per ton, up by $7.70, mirroring lower output from spring downtimes at primary crushers.

Black Sea region’s bad weather reduced forecasts of world wheat yield. Still, the American market was mostly unaffected, paying more attention to local projections. The Western Corn Belt is expected to have heavy rain; warm, sunny Midwest weather has been ideal. These seasons have restored soil moisture, therefore guaranteeing strong summer crop development. Feed costs stay low and steady, which helps dairy farmers, given the robust demand for cheese and butterfat.

The Bottom Line

Strong domestic cheese demand drives Class III futures to fresh highs despite intense worldwide rivalry and rising overseas output. Rising temperatures affecting milk output and strategic market maneuvers have constrained cheese supply, driving stratospheric prices on the CME spot market.

Planned increases in cheese production from Australia, New Zealand, and Europe call into doubt the sustainability of present U.S. pricing levels. Rising U.S. cheese prices make landing new export agreements improbable, which might change world trade dynamics in the following months.

The dairy sector is negotiating obstacles from environmental conditions and the development of illnesses like avian influenza to economic constraints like low slaughter volumes and high heifer prices. In this usually changing sector, these elements might help to maintain high prices longer than usual.

High cheese demand and limited supply help Class III futures to continue firm, yet the long-term prediction hinges on addressing production problems and changes in world market behavior. The larger dairy market will watch these changes as dairy farmers aim to optimize production, balancing optimism with prudence.

Key Takeaways:

  • High Class III Futures: Driven by strong domestic cheese demand, Class III futures have reached new highs, averaging $21.28 per cwt. for third-quarter contracts.
  • Limited Impact on Exports: Current U.S. cheese prices are expected to hinder new export business, with a foreseeable decline in exports later this year.
  • Record Cheese Exports: Between November and April, record cheese shipments helped reduce U.S. cheese inventories.
  • Climate Challenges: Sweltering temperatures in California and the Southwest, coupled with an unusually hot June forecast for the Midwest, have curtailed milk production.
  • Persistent Demand for Butterfat: Global demand for butterfat remains high, with U.S. butter prices influencing international markets.
  • Whey and Nonfat Dry Milk Markets: Steady whey prices and a stable milk powder market, with some regional price increases due to lower production and better demand outside China.
  • Class IV Futures Decline: While Class III futures have surged, Class IV futures have retreated slightly, impacting profit margins for dairy producers.
  • Agricultural Market Stability: USDA’s latest crop updates provided no significant changes, leaving commodity prices mostly unchanged, with corn and soybean meal prices stable.

Summary: The global cheese market is experiencing significant changes, with USDA experts in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe anticipating strategic surges in cheese output due to a decrease in fluid milk consumption and declining profit margins for milk powder. This shift indicates that processors in these regions are adapting to the increased value of cheese markets and are ready to redirect more milk into cheese production. Despite the projected global expansion of cheese production, the U.S. dairy sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience, driving record Class III futures and high U.S. cheese prices. Key factors contributing to the current surge in U.S. cheese pricing include record-breaking cheese shipments from November through April, strong domestic demand, and strategic movements and climatic patterns. An unusually hot June is forecasted for the Midwest, and adverse weather conditions, including searing temperatures in California and the Southwest, have curtailed milk production, driving up cheese prices and straining the milk supply. Class III futures present promising financial opportunities for dairy farmers, encouraging increased milk output. However, it is still uncertain if high prices are sustainable. The butter industry faces significant challenges due to global demand and scarcities, leading to high butter prices. High cheese demand and limited supply may help maintain high prices longer than usual.

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Cheese Prices Surge to New Highs Amid Milk Market Strain and Regional Disruptions

Thursday, June 13th, 2024

Find out why cheese prices are climbing. Learn how milk market issues and local disruptions are affecting your favorite dairy products. Get the details here.

Another day of positive growth in the cheese market. Higher CME spot prices have led to a significant increase in block values, reaching the highest level since August 2023. With futures finishing 6.4 cents higher at $2.1390 a pound, it has driven the August all-cheese price to fresh life-of-contract highs. While milk output is a concern in certain cheese-making areas, the overall market is showing promising signs.

CommodityCurrent PriceChangeHighest Price Since
Block Cheese$2.1390 per pound+6.4 centsAugust 2023
Spot Blocks$1.9825 per pound+$0.0450–
Barrel Cheese$2.0225 per pound+$0.0125–
Butter$3.0900 per pound-$0.0150–

Leading Chicago’s dairy market activity today:

  • With four shipments sold, spot blocks increased to $1.9825 per pound, gaining $0.0450.
  • Barrels likewise rose to $2.0225 per pound, earning $0.0125.
  • The lone red on the board was butter, which slid to $3.0900, down $0.0150.

Stability in the dairy market is evident as Class III futures improved, with contracts for third quarters concluding at $21.28 per hundredweight, up $0.45 for the day. Simultaneously, adjacent Class IV contracts remained steady at $21.35, indicating a balanced market.

Though steady from last week, Midwest spot milk prices this week averaged—$1.50, significantly above last year’s price of—$7.75 and the five-year average of—$2.73. Cow comfort still presents difficulties in many areas of the United States, resulting in limited supply.

Summary: The cheese market has seen positive growth, with higher CME spot prices leading to a significant increase in block values, reaching the highest level since August 2023. Futures finished 6.4 cents higher at $2.1390 a pound, driving the August all-cheese price to fresh life-of-contract highs. Despite concerns about milk output in certain cheese-making areas, the overall market is showing promising signs. Chicago’s dairy market activity saw spot blocks increase to $1.9825 per pound and barrels to $2.0225 per pound. Class III futures improved, with contracts for third quarters ending at $21.28 per hundredweight, up $0.45. Midwest spot milk prices averaged $1.50, significantly above last year’s price and the five-year average of $2.73.

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Milk Futures Predict Brighter Prices Ahead Amid Market Volatility and Rising Demand

Tuesday, June 11th, 2024

Learn how milk futures suggest better prices ahead despite market volatility and rising demand. Will tighter supplies and more exports lift dairy markets?

Understanding the market dynamics, especially the recent trends in Class III futures, is crucial. It can equip you with the knowledge to navigate through these uncertain waters. Stay informed and be prepared for fluctuations that could significantly impact your bottom line.

MonthClass III Futures Price ($ per cwt)Class IV Futures Price ($ per cwt)
January21.3523.50
February22.1024.30
March20.8523.00
April19.6022.10
May18.5021.00
June19.2022.40

Milk Futures Signal a Brighter Horizon for Dairy Farmers 

The potential for a brighter horizon for dairy farmers this year is signaled by milk futures. If spot prices hold, milk prices could surpass last year’s levels. This optimistic outlook is driven by several factors, including increased demand and supply constraints, which could further boost prices. 

Firstly, increased demand plays a significant role. Both domestic and international markets show a heightened appetite for dairy products, especially cheese and butterfat. 

Secondly, supply constraints could further boost prices. Cheese inventories haven’t exceeded last year’s levels. If demand continues to rise, the supply may struggle to keep pace, pushing prices upward. 

It’s also worth noting that volatility in recent milk markets could become more pronounced as summer progresses. The indicators point positively toward better milk prices compared to last year.

MonthCheese Exports (Metric Tons)Butterfat Exports (Metric Tons)
January24,0006,500
February22,5006,200
March26,0006,800
April28,5008,000
May27,0007,500

The Stability in Cheese Inventory: A Beacon for Dairy Farmers 

The stability in cheese inventory signals good news for dairy farmers. With international demand rising, especially in quicker-rebounding markets, you can expect further price gains. High cheese exports will likely continue, cushioning against domestic shortages. 

Butterfat exports surged 23% in April, hinting at record butter prices. If domestic consumption follows suit, the dairy sector could have a profitable year. Watch these trends closely as they shape market dynamics. 

The crop outlook remains strong despite planting delays. With 75% of corn rated good/excellent, a bountiful harvest is expected. This could lower feed costs and boost profits. While some input costs are high, stable grain prices and improving milk futures suggest a better income over feed margin. 

As summer progresses, a proactive approach is essential. The market’s volatility demands your attention. Monitor both local and international trends to navigate the ups and downs, maximizing gains and minimizing setbacks.

Record Cheese Exports: A Promising Outlook for Dairy Farmers

International cheese demand has surged, with record-high cheese exports in March and April. This increase has provided strong market support. More domestic cheese is being sold internationally, reducing inventory levels and potentially tightening supplies. 

The impact on future prices could be significant. Continued strong demand and tighter supplies may boost cheese prices. As global market dynamics favor U.S. cheese, this could mean better margins and a more stable income for dairy farmers.

The Butter Market: Rising Exports Foreshadow Potential Records

The butter market is showing robust signs. In particular, April witnessed a substantial increase in butterfat exports, soaring by 23%. This upward trend in exports is not just a fleeting moment; it sets a solid foundation for potentially record-high butter prices this year. As both domestic and international demand for butter continues to rise, the market outlook becomes increasingly favorable. This spike in demand, coupled with the surge in butterfat shipments, could very well propel butter prices to new heights, instilling confidence in dairy farmers about the market’s potential.

April’s Income Over Feed Margin: A Glimpse of Dairy Farming Resilience

April’s income over feed price was $9.60 per cwt, marking the second month without Dairy Margin Coverage payments. This positive signal for dairy farmers shows profitable conditions without government support. 

Looking ahead, the stability of grain prices and the positive trend in milk futures should inspire optimism. Despite planting delays, grain prices remain steady, and 75% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent. A strong crop could mean lower grain prices and feed costs, potentially boosting income over feed margins and improving profitability. This promising outlook could reduce reliance on Dairy Margin Coverage payments, offering a brighter future for dairy farmers. 

With steady or falling grain prices and positive milk futures, dairy farmers might see continued profitability, reducing reliance on Dairy Margin Coverage payments. This outlook benefits farmers navigating market volatility.

Grain Market Conditions: A Silver Lining for Dairy Farmers

Let’s shift focus to the grain market. Planting delays have yet to affect grain prices significantly. The early corn condition looks very positive, with 75% rated as good to excellent. That sets the stage for a robust harvest. 

If this trend holds, expect a large corn crop, likely lowering corn prices. This means reduced feed costs for dairy farmers, leading to better income over feed margins and improved profitability despite volatile milk market conditions.

The Bottom Line

The dairy market is experiencing significant volatility, especially in Class III futures. However, current trends suggest milk prices could improve. Cheese inventory is stable, hinting at tighter supplies if demand rises. Meanwhile, cheese and butterfat exports have surged, boosting market confidence. 

In April, income over feed margins was resilient, with stable grain prices suggesting favorable conditions for dairy farmers. Despite some planting delays, strong crop conditions for corn indicate ample supply and potentially lower feed costs. These factors contribute to a positive milk price outlook if spot prices hold and demand grows.

Key Takeaways:

  • Milk futures suggest better prices compared to last year if current spot prices hold.
  • Demand dynamics: Improved international cheese demand boosts market optimism.
  • Cheese inventory levels remain stable, indicating potential supply tightening.
  • April saw a 23% increase in butterfat exports, hinting at possible record-high butter prices.
  • Grain market: Initial crop conditions are favorable, potentially leading to lower grain prices.
  • No further Dairy Margin Coverage program payments expected due to improved income over feed conditions.

Summary: The dairy market is experiencing significant volatility, especially in Class III futures, and this turbulence is expected to persist and escalate as summer approaches. Milk futures indicate a brighter horizon for dairy farmers this year, with spot prices holding and milk prices potentially surpassing last year’s levels. Increased demand for dairy products, particularly cheese and butterfat, is driving optimism. Supply constraints could further boost prices, as cheese inventories haven’t exceeded last year’s levels. Stability in cheese inventory signals good news for dairy farmers, as international demand is rising, especially in quicker-rebounding markets. High cheese exports will likely continue, cushioning against domestic shortages. The butter market is showing robust signs, with record-high cheese exports in March and April providing strong market support. More domestic cheese is being sold internationally, reducing inventory levels and potentially tightening supplies.

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Milk Futures Signal Potential for Stronger Prices Amid Volatility and Rising Cheese Demand

Monday, June 10th, 2024

Discover how milk futures signal stronger prices amid rising cheese demand and market volatility. Will this trend continue to benefit dairy producers and consumers?

The dairy markets have seen increased volatility, with Class III futures showing significant ups and downs. I mentioned this earlier, and it happened sooner than expected. Expect more volatility as summer progresses. Traders are reacting quickly to cash movements or perceived price changes. Milk futures suggest milk prices could be better than last year if spot prices remain steady. Prices will improve if demand rises and supplies tighten. Cheese inventory hasn’t exceeded last year’s levels, hinting at potential supply tightening if demand grows. Manufacturers say cheese demand is up but not enough to cut inventory.

MonthTotal Cheese Exports (Metric Tons)Change from Previous YearButterfat Exports (Metric Tons)Change from Previous Year
March 202350,022+20.5%2,350+15%
April 202346,271+27%2,881+23%

International cheese demand has seen a remarkable improvement. In March, cheese exports surged to 50,022 metric tons, a 20.5% increase from the previous year and the highest recorded. April followed suit with a 27% rise over April 2023, reaching 46,271 metric tons, the second highest on record. 

MonthClass III Closing Price (per cwt)Price Change (%)Market Sentiment
January$19.20+3.2%Optimistic
February$18.75-2.3%Neutral
March$20.10+7.2%Strong
April$21.00+4.5%Bullish
May$21.25+1.2%Stable
June$21.85+2.8%Optimistic

The outlook for cheese exports is bright, providing strong market support. Butterfat exports also jumped in April, reaching 2,881 metric tons—up 23% from last year and the first year-over-year increase since November 2022. This could lead to record-high butter prices, thanks to higher demand and the highest butter prices yet for this time of year. Increasing domestic demand and potential for rising international demand could push prices even higher. 

  • April income over feed price was $9.60 per cwt.
  • Second month with no Dairy Margin Coverage program payments.
  • Current grain prices and milk futures suggest no future payments under the program.
  • Planting delays haven’t impacted grain prices.
  • Initial crop condition for corn is 75% good/excellent.
  • One of the highest initial ratings for a crop, possibly leading to a large supply and lower prices.
  • This could improve income over feed significantly.

Summary: Dairy markets are experiencing increased volatility, with Class III futures showing significant fluctuations. Traders react quickly to cash movements or price changes, and milk prices could improve if spot prices remain steady. Cheese inventory has not exceeded last year’s levels, suggesting potential supply tightening if demand grows. International cheese demand has seen a remarkable improvement, with cheese exports rising 20.5% in March and 27% in April. The outlook for cheese exports is bright, providing strong market support. Butterfat exports also jumped in April, reaching 2,881 metric tons, up 23% from last year and the first year-over-year increase since November 2022. This could lead to record-high butter prices due to higher demand. Income over feed price in April was $9.60 per cwt, with no Dairy Margin Coverage program payments.

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Bullish Trends Dominate LaSalle Street: Record Highs in Class III & IV Futures Propel Dairy Markets

Saturday, June 8th, 2024

Uncover the surge of bullish trends on LaSalle Street pushing Class III & IV futures to record highs. Will the dairy markets keep climbing? Delve into the latest insights today.

The bulls are back on LaSalle Street, setting fresh records in dairy futures. Class III and some Class IV futures hit life-of-contract highs this week, making waves in the dairy markets. While some Class III contracts dipped slightly by week’s end, Class IV futures rose about 30ȼ. Third-quarter Class III stands solidly above $20 per cwt. Fourth-quarter contracts hover in the high $19s. Class IV futures are robust in the $21s and $22s. 

Prices climbed across the CME spot market, led by whey – the unsung hero of the Class III complex. 

The recent surge in whey powder, with a significant 13.25% increase, along with solid gains in Cheddar blocks and barrels, is a clear indicator of the market’s strength. This bullish trend in Class III and IV futures not only highlights the current market strength but also promises potential growth and stability.

ProductAvg PriceQty Traded4 Wk Trend
Whey$0.4445713.25% increase
Cheese Blocks$1.866013Up
Cheese Barrels$1.955013Up
Butter$3.10405Stable
Non-Fat Dry Milk (NDM)$1.189531Up

Class III Futures Soar: A Promising Summer and Year-End Forecast

ContractPrice as of Last WeekPrice This WeekChange
July Class III$19.50$20.25+3.85%
August Class III$19.75$20.45+3.54%
September Class III$20.00$21.10+5.50%
October Class III$19.20$20.10+4.69%
November Class III$19.00$19.75+3.95%
December Class III$18.50$19.40+4.86%

The steady trend of class III futures, which are on a roll this summer and heading into the end of the year, offers a clear outlook for dairy producers. With contracts from July through December hitting life-of-contract highs and third-quarter Class III prices solidly above $20 per cwt., there is robust demand in the market. The prices for the fourth quarter, settling in the $19s, further reinforce the potential profitability for dairy producers. 

Class IV Futures Climb Higher: Butter and NDM Lead the Charge

MonthAvg PriceQty Traded4 wk Trend
July 2024$21.5010⬆
August 2024$21.7512⬆
September 2024$22.0014⬆
October 2024$21.9511⬆
November 2024$22.1013⬆
December 2024$22.2515⬆

Class IV futures are on the rise, now solidly in the $21s and $22s. This reflects the strong and resilient market fundamentals of the dairy sector. The hike in Class IV prices highlights robust demand for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM), both showing remarkable performances recently. With higher butter output meeting strong demand and climbing NDM prices, these components are crucial to Class IV’s upward trend. This surge boosts market sentiment and provides dairy producers with better financial incentives to increase production despite current challenges, instilling a sense of stability and confidence in the market. 

A Week of Robust Gains: Whey Leads the Charge in the CME Spot Market

The CME spot market buzzed this week, with significant gains led by whey. Spot whey powder jumped 5.5ȼ, a solid 13.25% increase, hitting 47ȼ per pound for the first time since February. This rise shows the strong demand for high-protein whey products as manufacturers focused more on concentration. 

Spot Cheddar also saw gains, with blocks up 3.5ȼ to $1.845 per pound and barrels rising 1.5ȼ to $1.955 per pound. This climb, even with a drop in Cheddar production, reflects strong domestic and international cheese demand, especially with U.S. cheese exports to Mexico hitting record highs. 

Nonfat dry milk (NDM) increased by 2.75ȼ to $1.195 per pound, supported by a robust Global Dairy Trade auction. Despite the price rise, NDM stocks saw their most significant March-to-April jump, suggesting slower exports. 

Butter prices edged slightly, by a fraction of a cent, to settle at $3.0925 per pound. Despite a 5.3% year-over-year production increase, the continued strength in butter prices indicates strong demand holding up the market prices.

April’s Milk Output: High Components Drive Record-Breaking Butter Production

MonthButter Production (million pounds)Year-Over-Year Change (%)
January191.0+4.0%
February181.3+3.5%
March205.5+5.1%
April208.0+5.3%

The bulls are back in charge on LaSalle Street. July through December Class III and a smattering of Class IV futures notched life-of-contract highs this week. While most Class III contracts ultimately settled a little lower than they did last Friday, Class

April’s milk output brought some notable developments. Despite lower overall volume than last year, higher milk components led to an uptick in cheese and butter production. Manufacturers churned out nearly 208 million pounds of butter, a 5.3% increase over April 2023. This marks the highest butter output for April, only behind April 2020, when pandemic shutdowns diverted cream to butter production. This spike in butter output indicates solid market demand despite the large volumes.

Record Cheese Production in April: Mozzarella and Italian-Style Cheeses Shine 

Cheese TypeApril 2023 Production (Million lbs)April 2024 Production (Million lbs)Year-over-Year Change (%)
Mozzarella379402+6.2%
Italian-Style496527+6.2%
Cheddar349319-8.6%
Total Cheese1,1701,191+1.8%

April saw U.S. cheese production reach new heights, with Mozzarella and Italian-style cheeses leading the charge. Mozzarella production hit record levels, and Italian-style cheese output was up 6.2% compared to last April. This high demand ensures quick consumption or export, avoiding the stockpiles that sometimes affect Cheddar. 

Cheddar, however, experienced an 8.6% drop in production from last year, showing a 5.9% decline from January to April compared to 2023. Yet, strong cheese exports, especially to Mexico and key Asian markets, are balancing things out. Exports are up 23% year-to-date, which helped push cheese prices above $2 briefly. 

Continued export growth might be challenging, with cheese prices around $1.90, but the trends are promising for U.S. cheese producers.

Whey Powder Renaissance: Demand for High-Protein Products Fuels Price Surge 

Whey powder, often underrated in the dairy market, is returning thanks to a strong demand for high-protein products. Health-conscious consumers are driving this trend, leading manufacturers to concentrate more on whey and produce less powder. Although April’s whey powder output matched last year’s, stocks have declined. This reduced supply and steady demand have fueled the current price surge. The recent 5.5ȼ gain, a 13.25% increase, underscores the market’s strength.

A Tale of Supply and Demand: NDM Production Slumps While Stockpiles Surge Due to Sluggish Exports

Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) and Skim Milk Powder (SMP) production fell significantly in April to 209.6 million pounds, down 14.2% year-over-year, marking the lowest April output since 2013. Despite this, NDM stocks surged, hitting a record March-to-April increase. Slower exports are the leading cause. In April, the U.S. exported 144 million pounds of NDM and SMP, down 2.5% from last year and the lowest for April since 2019. This highlights the delicate balance between production, stock levels, and international trade.

Promising Prospects: Mexico’s Shift to NDM Could Boost Exports and Stabilize Markets

There’s hope for increased NDM export volumes, particularly to Mexico. Higher cheese prices might push Mexico to import more affordable NDM instead of cheese. Mexican manufacturers can use NDM to boost their cheese production efficiently. This shift could reduce current NDM stockpiles and stabilize market prices.

Proceed with Caution: Navigating Volatility and Barriers in Milk Production

The recent data highlight extreme volatility in the dairy complex. While high prices are tempting, caution is crucial. There are significant barriers to milk production expansion. High interest rates make investments riskier, and a scarcity of heifers limits rapid growth. Even issues like the bird flu impact the supply chain and market stability.

Economic Incentives and Strategic Tools Empower Dairy Producers to Boost Output and strategically navigate the market. This potential for strategic growth and control over the market dynamics can be a powerful motivator for dairy producers and traders. The current market conditions for dairy producers are a strong incentive to boost milk production. Class III futures are up $3.50 from last year, and with corn prices down $1.55, feed costs are more affordable, making it easier to increase output. 

Despite market ups and downs, there’s a great chance to protect your margins. You can lock in current high prices using futures and options, ensuring steady profits. The Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) insurance program offers a safety net against price drops or production issues. These tools help you navigate the market smartly and aim for maximum profitability.

Feed Markets Show Resilience Amidst Fluctuations: Corn Gains Modestly, Soybean Meal Dips

The feed markets had their ups and downs this week but ended up close to where they started. July corn settled at $4.4875, a slight increase of 2.5ȼ. Meanwhile, July soybean meal dropped $4.10 to $360.60 per ton.

Farmers are almost done planting their crops, with just a few acres left. A drier forecast will help them wrap up. Although heavy spring rains posed initial challenges, they also improved moisture reserves for the upcoming summer months. 

Less favorable global farming conditions might boost U.S. export prospects, stabilizing prices and preventing steep drops. With average weather, a large U.S. harvest is expected, potentially lowering feed costs even more.

The Bottom Line

The current dairy market offers both opportunities and challenges for producers. Class III and IV futures show solid gains and higher prices thanks to robust demand and reduced milk output. Whey and cheese markets are performing exceptionally, and export volumes could improve. However, volatility remains a concern. High interest rates, scarce resources, and global health threats add to the uncertainty. Farmers can secure attractive margins using strategic tools like futures, options, and insurance programs. Favorable planting conditions and resilient feed markets provide added support. Staying informed and agile will be vital to capitalizing on these dynamics while managing risks.

Key Takeaways:

  • Strong bullish trends observed in Class III and IV futures, with significant life-of-contract highs.
  • Third-quarter Class III prices solidly above $20 per cwt, and fourth-quarter contracts in the $19 range.
  • Class IV futures robustly in the $21s and $22s, driven by high demand for butter and NDM.
  • Whey powder prices surged with a 13.25% gain, hitting 47ȼ per pound for the first time since February.
  • Cheddar blocks and barrels showed solid gains at the CME spot market, indicating strong market fundamentals.
  • April’s milk output featured high components, leading to record-breaking butter production.
  • U.S. cheese production hit record levels in April, driven by escalating Mozzarella and Italian-style cheese output.
  • Strong demand for high-protein whey products spurred a price surge, backed by decreased dryer availability.
  • NDM production saw a slump, affected by sluggish exports, but stockpiles surged with the largest March-to-April increase ever.
  • Mexico’s potential shift to importing more NDM could stabilize export volumes and market dynamics.
  • Dairy producers incentivized to boost milk production despite barriers, with improved futures and feed margins.
  • Feed markets exhibited resilience, with minor fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices.

Summary: The dairy market has seen a strong bullish trend, with Class III and some Class IV futures hitting life-of-contract highs this week. Class IV futures are robust in the $21s and $22s, reflecting the strong and resilient market fundamentals of the dairy sector. The recent surge in whey powder and solid gains in Cheddar blocks and barrels is a clear indicator of the market’s strength, promising potential growth and stability. Class III futures are on a roll this summer and heading into the end of the year, offering a clear outlook for dairy producers. Contracts from July through December hit life-of-contract highs, and third-quarter Class III prices solidly above $20 per cwt., reinforcing potential profitability for dairy producers. Class IV futures are on the rise, now solidly in the $21s and $22s, reflecting the strong and resilient market fundamentals of the dairy sector. The surge in Class IV prices highlights robust demand for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM), both showing remarkable performances recently. In April, U.S. cheese production reached record levels, with Mozzarella and Italian-style cheeses leading the charge.

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Butter Prices Surge and Plummet: A Wild Week in Dairy Markets

Saturday, June 1st, 2024

Discover the rollercoaster ride of butter prices this week. Why did they surge and then plummet? Dive into the latest trends and market insights in dairy.

Get ready for a wild ride in the dairy market. Butter prices hit a spring high last Friday but plunged early this week, causing traders and buyers to wonder if such price jumps are sustainable. 

“Butter values plunged early this week after hitting a new high last Friday. Traders spent the long weekend debating if prices should surpass previous years when today’s production, imports, and stocks are all higher than in 2022 and 2023,” noted market analysts. 

This butter price rollercoaster impacts the broader dairy industry. From cheese to whole milk powder and whey, these price shifts affect other dairy products. In this article, we explore the latest trends and key factors shaping the dairy market’s present and future.

Dairy ProductAvg PriceQuantity Traded (4 wk Trend)
Butter$3.02449
Cheese Blocks$1.823114
Cheese Barrels$1.95508
Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.16759
Whey$0.403111

Butter Prices Tumble After New Spring High, Sending Shockwaves Through Dairy Market

After notching a new spring high last Friday, butter values plunged early this week. Buyers, driven by fears of tighter supplies and higher fall prices, initially pushed the market to new heights. However, despite strong domestic consumption and increased international demand, the current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in previous years. 

The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Traders spent the long weekend debating whether current prices justified the recent highs. This resulted in a steep selloff on Tuesday morning as traders rushed to offload holdings, causing a brief but sharp decline in butter prices.

By Thursday, butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm, aiming to avoid higher costs in the fall. Their robust willingness to pay $3 or more per pound lifted spot butter prices close to last Friday’s peak. Ultimately, spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing their dairy needs early.

Cheese Market Adjusts as Domestic Demand and Export Dynamics Shape Pricing Trends

The cheese market faced a notable pullback this week, driven by shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers have boosted domestic interest by promoting lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. However, the balancing act between competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate. 

Early 2024 saw strong export activity, especially in February and March, helping to keep inventories in check. Yet, fears are growing that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers, pushing the market to find a sustainable and fluid price point. As a result, cheese is expected to stay above January through April levels, despite recent corrections. 

This week, CME spot Cheddar blocks fell 6 cents to $1.81, and barrels dropped 4 cents to $1.94, marking the market’s ongoing efforts to effectively balance supply and demand.

Mixed Results at Global Dairy Trade Pulse Auction Highlight Market Divergence

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Pulse auction showed mixed results. Whole milk powder (WMP) prices climbed to their highest since October 2022. Meanwhile, skim milk powder (SMP) prices dipped after last week’s gains. This highlights differing trends within the dairy sector.

Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Show Slight Dip Amid Bullish Futures Market Projections

This week, nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices dipped slightly, with CME spot NDM falling 0.75ȼ to $1.1675. Futures, however, remain bullish. June contracts hover around $1.17, but fourth-quarter futures trade in the mid-$1.20s, targeting $1.30 by early 2025. The market anticipates tighter milk supplies and reduced output, awaiting a demand-driven rally to intensify the upward trend.

Whey Market Defies Dairy Commodity Downtrend with Robust Performance and Rising Prices

Amidst a general decline in dairy commodities, the whey market has shown striking resilience. CME spot whey powder rose by 1.5ȼ this week to 41.5ȼ, hitting a two-month high. This surge is driven by robust domestic demand for high-protein whey products. Processors are focusing on these segments, reducing whey for drying and tightening supply, thereby lifting prices across the whey market.

Class IV and Class III Futures Reflect Dynamic Dairy Market Shifts and Supply Concerns

This week saw noticeable shifts in Class IV and Class III futures, driven by changes in the cheese market and broader dairy supply concerns. Class IV futures dropped, with most contracts ending about 60ȼ lower since last Friday, putting May and June contracts in the high $20s per cwt, and July to December above $21 per cwt. 

In contrast, Class III futures showed mixed results. The June Class III fell by 41ȼ to $19.47 per cwt, still an improvement for dairy producers after months of low revenues. Meanwhile, July through October contracts increased by 20 to 60ȼ, indicating market expectations for $20 milk. 

Cheese market trends are key here. Domestic demand is up, driven by retail promotions, and exports remain strong, keeping inventories stable. Yet, there’s concern about maintaining export momentum with potential $2 cheese prices. Finding a balanced price to keep products moving is critical. 

For dairy producers, these developments offer cautious optimism. Near-term futures show slight adjustments, but expectations of tighter milk supplies and higher cheese demand provide a promising outlook. The rise in Class III contracts suggests a favorable environment, backed by strong cheese demand and strategic pricing for exports.

Spring Flush and Seasonal Dynamics Raise Concerns Over Future Milk Supply Tightness

The spring flush, holiday weekend, and drop-off in school milk orders have resulted in ample milk for processors. However, higher prices signal concerns about potential rapid supply tightening. According to USDA’s Dairy Market News, milk was spread thin last summer with more tankers moving south, and a similar situation is expected in summer 2024, although overall milk access has been lighter this year than in the first half of 2023. This suggests that immediate milk abundance might be quickly offset by long-term supply constraints.

Bird Flu, Heifer Shortage, and Herd Dynamics Pose Multifaceted Challenges for 2024 Milk Production

The dairy industry is grappling with several critical issues that could disrupt milk production for the rest of the year. Key among these is the persistent bird flu, which continues to affect herds in major milk-producing states like Idaho and Michigan and is now spreading into the Northern Plains. 

Compounding the problem is the ongoing heifer shortage. Dairy producers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep their barns and bulk tanks full due to limited availability of replacement heifers. The high demand has driven up prices, leading some producers to sell any extra heifers they have, though this only temporarily eases the shortage. 

At the same time, dairy cow slaughter volumes have plummeted as producers retain low-production milk cows to maintain or grow herd sizes. While this strategy aims to increase milk output, it involves keeping less efficient cows longer, which could hinder overall growth. These challenges together create an uncertain outlook for milk production in the months ahead.

Farmers Navigate Weather Challenges to Meet Corn Planting Goals Amid Future Market Volatility

Intermittent sunshine gave farmers just enough time to catch up with the average corn planting pace. As they dodge showers and storms, some in fringe areas may switch crops, while others might opt for prevented planting insurance rather than risk fields for sub-$5 corn. The trade remains cautious, gauging the wet spring’s impact on yield and acreage. However, the moisture might be welcome as we approach a potentially hot, dry La Niña summer. Consequently, July corn futures dropped nearly 20ȼ to $4.46 per bushel, and soybean meal plummeted $21 to $364.70 per ton.

The Bottom Line

This week, the dairy market experienced significant shifts, with butter prices dropping sharply before partially recovering, reflecting ongoing volatility. Cheese prices also declined, although strong domestic demand and exports helped stabilize the market. Interestingly, whey prices bucked the trend, driven by robust demand for high-protein products. 

Looking forward, the dairy market is set for continued fluctuations. The spring flush and current weather conditions are creating short-term abundance, but concerns over milk supply tightness are already influencing pricing. The combined effects of bird flu, heifer shortages, and keeping lower-yield cows highlight the challenges for dairy producers. As these issues evolve, they will shape market dynamics throughout 2024. Stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable, as milk production constraints and demand pressures could test the market’s resilience.

Key Takeaways:

  • Butter prices experienced a sharp decline early in the week, following a new spring high last Friday, leading to market reassessment and volatility.
  • Cheese prices retreated due to shifts in domestic demand and concerns over the sustainability of export sales at higher price points.
  • Mixed results at the Global Dairy Trade Pulse auction highlighted market divergence, with whole milk powder values increasing and skim milk powder prices retreating.
  • Despite a slight dip in nonfat dry milk prices, futures market projections remain bullish, anticipating a rise in values due to tighter milk supplies.
  • The whey market outperformed other dairy commodities, showing robust demand and rising prices amidst an industry downtrend.
  • Class IV and Class III futures markets reflected the dynamic dairy market shifts, with fluctuations in pricing due to current supply concerns.
  • Seasonal dynamics and spring flush raised concerns over future milk supplies, as high temperatures and declining school orders impact availability.
  • Challenges such as the bird flu and heifer shortage continue to pressure 2024 milk production, complicating the supply chain and market equilibrium.
  • Farmers navigated adverse weather conditions to meet corn planting goals, reflecting broader agricultural market volatility and future crop yields’ uncertainty.
  • Overall, dairy markets faced significant price fluctuations and supply chain challenges, underlining the importance of strategic planning and market adaptation.

Summary: Butter prices reached a new spring high last Friday, but plummeted early this week, raising concerns about the sustainability of these prices. Current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in 2022 and 2023, posing challenges for dairy producers. The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm to avoid higher costs in the fall. Spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing dairy needs early. The cheese market faced a pullback this week due to shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers promoted lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. Balancing competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate, and fears that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers push the market to find a sustainable price point.

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Will Milk Production Sustain Its Strength Amid Market Surprises and Rising Futures?

Wednesday, May 29th, 2024

Will milk production sustain its strength amid market surprises and rising futures? Discover the factors influencing milk output and market volatility this year.

Analyst pointing the chart.

In recent months, the dairy industry has faced a challenging landscape with expected production declines, economic pressures, and health concerns. However, April’s surprise milk production report revealed a remarkable resilience in milk output. This stability has notably influenced Class III futures, which experienced significant drops due to stronger-than-expected production figures, instilling a sense of confidence in the industry’s ability to adapt. 

April Milk Production Report Defies Expectations, Showcases Unexpected Resilience

MonthTop 24 States Production (Billion Pounds)National Production (Billion Pounds)Percent Change from Last Year (Top 24 States)Percent Change from Last Year (National)
April17.619.0-0.5%-0.7%
March17.819.2-0.9%-1.0%
February16.517.7-1.3%-1.4%
January17.218.4-0.4%-0.5%
December17.518.80.0%0.0%
November17.418.60.2%0.3%

The April Milk Production report defied forecasts of a sharp decline in milk output. Analysts predicted a drop due to the H5N1 virus, dwindling heifer supply, and increased culling rates from low milk prices. However, the data revealed a more resilient industry landscape, underscoring the need for caution in predicting the impact of the H5N1 virus on milk production. 

Significantly, March’s production figures were revised. Initially, March decreased sharply—down 0.9% in the top 24 states and 1.0% nationwide. The April report revised this to a 0.5% decline in the top 24 states and 0.7% nationwide, indicating more excellent stability than initially thought. 

The severe downturn in milk output did not materialize as expected. Factors like the H5N1 virus and reduced heifer availability exerted less pressure than anticipated. This resilience affected market dynamics, lowering Class III futures and easing industry anxieties about prolonged declines.

Market Sentiment Spurs Notable Increases in Class III and IV Futures Amid Tightening Milk Production

MonthClass III ($/cwt)Class IV ($/cwt)
May 202224.6525.73
June 202225.8726.52
July 202222.5225.79
August 202220.1024.81
September 202219.8224.63
October 202221.3424.96
November 202221.0123.66
December 202220.5023.92
January 202319.4321.99
February 202317.7820.67
March 202318.4021.06
April 202317.6720.33

The perception of tightening milk production significantly influenced Class III and Class IV futures, causing notable increases. As market sentiment leaned towards a decrease in milk output, primarily influenced by factors such as the H5N1 virus, heifer supply constraints, and increased culling due to low milk prices, traders anticipated lower milk availability. This anticipation spurred a rise in milk futures prices, with Class III futures experiencing a more pronounced impact due to a combination of perceived supply constraints and a surge in spot cheese prices. Consequently, the June contract for Class III rose by over $5.00 per cwt. On the other hand, Class IV futures, while also bolstered by production concerns, saw their price increases driven predominantly by the rise in spot butter prices. Thus, while both Class III and Class IV futures reacted to the overarching theme of tightening supply, the specific price dynamics within the dairy commodities—cheese for Class III and butter for Class IV—played crucial roles in their respective futures markets, highlighting the importance of flexible hedging strategies to navigate these market dynamics.

The April Production Report Offers Critical Insight into the Actual Impact of the H5N1 Virus on Milk Production 

The April production report sheds light on the impact of the H5N1 virus on milk production. Texas, hit hardest by the virus, saw a 3.3% year-over-year decline in milk production, with milk per cow dropping by 55 pounds and a herd reduction of 5,000. 

In contrast, Michigan reported a 0.5% increase in overall milk production, despite a slight decrease of 5 pounds per cow, and added 3,000 cows to its herd. This highlights the virus’s variable impact, influenced by herd health, management practices, and local conditions. 

While the H5N1 virus does affect milk production, the extent varies widely. Local dynamics play a crucial role, indicating that national forecasts may not accurately predict regional outcomes.

Beyond the H5N1 Virus Concerns, perhaps the Most Pressing Issue Facing Dairy Producers is the Ongoing Scarcity of Heifers. 

The ongoing scarcity of heifers remains a critical issue for dairy producers. Breeding a portion of the dairy herd to beef has tightened heifer supplies, rendering them scarce and expensive. While financially beneficial, this strategic move poses sustainability challenges for milk production. 

Recent increases in Class III and IV milk futures have eased some pressure, with higher milk prices encouraging producers to retain heifers despite high costs. The April Livestock Slaughter report highlighted reduced culling, as optimism for better milk prices leads to retaining more cows. 

Yet, this balance is fragile. If milk prices fail to meet optimistic projections, increased culling and further strain on heifer supplies may follow. The interplay of breeding practices, heifer availability, and market trends requires strategic management by dairy producers. 

April Livestock Slaughter Report Reveals Significant Decline in Dairy Cattle Processing, Reflects Market Sensitivity to Rising Milk Futures and Pricing Expectations

MonthDairy Cattle Slaughter (Head)Change from Previous MonthChange from Previous Year
April 2023238,200-6,400-5,400
March 2023244,600-5,300-4,700
February 2023249,900+3,200-8,300

The April Livestock Slaughter report showed a significant drop in dairy cattle slaughter, with 238,200 head processed. This is down 6,400 head from March and 5,400 head from April 2023, marking the lowest monthly slaughter since December 2023 and the lowest April count since 2022. This decline is influenced by rising milk futures and expectations of higher milk prices, reducing the need for aggressive culling. Producers are holding onto more cows, promoting a stable milk production outlook. The report’s findings indicate that the market is reacting to the expectation of tightening milk supply, as reflected in the rising futures prices, and adjusting its production strategies accordingly. 

This trend highlights the dairy industry’s adaptability. Producers may sustain or even increase milk output by slowing the culling rate in the near term, emphasizing the importance of efficient herd management. Monitoring dairy cattle slaughter rates will be essential for predicting shifts in milk production and market dynamics as the year progresses.

Market Perception as a Potent Catalyst: Navigating the Volatile Landscape of Milk Futures

Market perception is a powerful catalyst for volatility in milk futures, driven by expected supply and demand dynamics. As producers, traders, and investors react to reports, the perceived health of milk production can inflate or deflate futures prices overnight. This means that the market’s perception of the future supply and demand for milk, based on factors such as the H5N1 virus, heifer scarcity, and increased culling, can significantly impact future prices. This perception-driven volatility opens avenues for both potential gains and frustrations, as it can lead to unexpected price fluctuations that can either benefit or harm market participants. 

Opportunities arise as the market reacts, enabling astute traders and producers to capitalize on price fluctuations. A deep understanding of market sentiment allows positioning for maximum returns. Anticipating production downturns leads to timely investments before futures surge, while recognizing overblown fears of shortages can present cost-saving buy-ins when prices dip. 

Volatility also introduces frustrations, especially for those lacking the means or expertise to navigate rapid market swings. Misjudging market direction can result in significant financial setbacks, particularly when based on incomplete or incorrect information. The unpredictability of factors affecting production—like disease outbreaks or changes in breeding practices—adds complexity to price forecasting. 

In this environment, robust and flexible hedging strategies are crucial. These strategies help manage exposure to adverse price movements while allowing stakeholders to capitalize on favorable trends. Hedging provides a safety net, reducing risk and ensuring resilience against market perception’s whims. As volatility brings opportunities and challenges, flexible hedging approaches adapt to changing market conditions, fostering more responsive operations.

The Bottom Line

The April Milk Production report showcased unexpected resilience in milk output, revealing a minimal decline despite initial fears driven by the H5N1 virus and a tightening heifer supply. Some states even recorded increased per-cow yields. This perception of potential shortages caused a notable rise in Class III and IV milk futures, fueled by speculative price increases in spot cheese and butter. 

Heifer availability remains a long-term challenge for dairy producers, raising concerns about sustainable production levels. The April Livestock Slaughter report reflected a reduced rate of dairy cattle processing, indicating producers’ sensitivity to rising milk futures and potential higher prices, contributing to a cautious market environment. 

The year ahead remains uncertain as market sentiment drives volatility in milk futures. While current production levels suggest stability, the long-term maintenance hinges on improved demand. With increased demand, milk prices may reach the optimistic predictions currently priced in the future. Stakeholders need to employ flexible hedging strategies amid this volatile market landscape.

Key Takeaways:

  • April’s milk production report surprised many by showing stronger-than-expected output, resulting in a significant drop in Class III futures.
  • Revisions in March’s milk production figures show a less drastic decline than initially reported, suggesting some resilience in the market.
  • Despite concerns, the H5N1 virus has not yet had a significant impact on overall milk production.
  • The scarcity of heifers and increased culling due to low milk prices remain pressing challenges for dairy producers.
  • The recent rise in milk futures prices reflects market sentiment anticipating a tighter milk supply, driven by various perceived risks and actual economic pressures.
  • April’s livestock slaughter report indicates a decrease in dairy cattle slaughter, easing some concerns about long-term production declines.
  • Both Class III and Class IV futures experienced price increases, but for different reasons: Class III due to cheese prices and perceived supply constraints; Class IV primarily from butter prices.
  • Effective and adaptable hedging strategies are essential to navigate the anticipated market volatility and capitalize on favorable trends.

Summary: The dairy industry has been facing challenges such as expected production declines, economic pressures, and health concerns. However, April’s milk production report showed remarkable resilience in milk output, affecting Class III futures, which experienced significant drops due to stronger-than-expected production figures. Factors like the H5N1 virus and reduced heifer availability exerted less pressure than anticipated, lowering Class III futures and easing industry anxieties about prolonged declines. Market sentiment leaned towards a decrease in milk output, primarily influenced by factors such as the H5N1 virus, heifer supply constraints, and increased culling due to low milk prices. This anticipation spurred a rise in milk futures prices, with Class III futures experiencing a more pronounced impact due to perceived supply constraints and a surge in spot cheese prices. Class IV futures saw price increases driven predominantly by the rise in spot butter prices. The April Livestock Slaughter report revealed a significant decline in dairy cattle slaughter, with 238,200 head processed, marking the lowest monthly slaughter since December 2023 and the lowest April count since 2022. Robust and flexible hedging strategies are crucial in managing exposure to adverse price movements and allowing stakeholders to capitalize on favorable trends.

Categories : Dairy Markets
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