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Cheese Prices Soar, Whey and Nonfat Dry Milk Lead the Charge: Weekly Dairy Outlook Sept 8th, 2024

Are you curious about rising cheese prices and why whey and nonfat dry milk are making headlines? Dive into our expert analysis to stay ahead of the market shifts.

Summary: The dairy market continues to show intriguing dynamics as we move through September 2024. Cheese prices, both barrel, and block, steadily climb, contributing to an overall uplift in Class III and Class IV futures. Notably, whey and nonfat dry milk prices have experienced a sharp rise, making a significant impact on the cash market. Concurrently, the Global Dairy Trade index experienced slight fluctuations, revealing varying trends in products like anhydrous milkfat, cheddar, mozzarella, and whole milk powder. The European Union’s milk production is up for the fifth consecutive month, adding a layer of complexity to the global market. Back home, the USDA’s latest report brings essential updates on national dairy product prices and federal milk marketing orders, highlighting significant increases in protein and Class III and IV prices. “At $20.66/cwt, Class III price finally sits above its long-term ‘normal’ price range,” notes the USDA report, underscoring a potential positive outlook for dairy farmers heading into the last quarter of the year.

  • Barrel and block cheese prices are on the rise, positively impacting future prices of Class III and Class IV.
  • Whey and nonfat dry milk prices have surged, significantly affecting the cash market.
  • The Global Dairy Trade index shows mixed trends, with some products increasing in price while others decline.
  • European Union milk production has increased for the fifth month in a row, adding complexity to the global market.
  • The USDA’s latest report highlights significant increases in protein prices, as well as Class III and Class IV prices.
  • Class III milk prices have surpassed their long-term ‘normal’ range, indicating a potentially positive outlook for dairy farmers.
dairy industry, sales prices, barrel cheese prices, block cheese prices, whey prices, nonfat dry milk prices, cash market prices, September futures, dairy farmers, industry experts, cheese prices, profit margins, supply chains, consumer pricing, profitability, operating expenses, futures contracts, whey protein, fitness sector, culinary sector, global dairy market dynamics, dairy futures market, production strategy, hedging methods, adverse risks

Have you noticed a surge in your recent dairy sales prices? If you’ve been following the markets, you’re likely aware of the recent spike in cheese prices. Last week, barrel and block cheese prices climbed, albeit slower. But here’s the kicker: whey and nonfat dry milk costs have skyrocketed, with cash market prices now significantly higher than September futures. These aren’t just market fluctuations; they could dramatically impact your bottom line. Staying abreast of market movements is crucial, especially when future markets stagnate and spot prices rise. Cheese prices have increased, with blocks hitting $2.27/lb and barrels at $2.275/lb. Whey costs have surged to $0.5875/lb, and nonfat dry milk is now priced at $1.3650/lb. As we head into the busy end-of-year season, monitoring these trends will help you make informed decisions that could lead to a more cheerful Christmas.

ProductAugust 30, 2024 (Price $/lb)September 6, 2024 (Price $/lb)Change ($)
Cheddar Cheese – Blocks$2.2100$2.2700+0.0600
Cheddar Cheese – Barrels$2.2600$2.2750+0.0150
Butter$3.1700$3.1750+0.0050
Dry Whey$0.5600$0.5875+0.0275
Nonfat Dry Milk$1.3300$1.3650+0.0350

Cheese Prices on the Rise 

Have you noticed an increase in cheese prices lately? Both barrel and block cheese prices are increasing, but at a slower rate than the previous week. This shift may have far-reaching consequences for dairy farmers and industry experts, as it could lead to increased profitability but also affect supply chains and consumer pricing.

Let us break it down. According to statistics from last week, block cheese ended at $2.27 per pound on September 6th, up $0.06 from $2.21 on August 30th. Similarly, barrel cheese prices grew by $0.015 to $2.275 per pound, up from $2.26 per pound the previous week. While these increases may seem minor, they indicate a long-term rising tendency.

Why does this matter? Higher cheese prices could be a boon for dairy producers’ bottom lines. The wholesale price situation indicates that Class III milk futures have risen to approximately $23.67 per cwt, up from $23.14 at the same time. If these prices hold steady, farmers could see a boost in income.

However, it is critical to evaluate the more significant ramifications. Higher cheese prices may result in higher short-term profit margins for producers. Still, they also knock on supply chains and consumer pricing. Maintaining profitability will require balancing profiting from rising pricing and minimizing operating expenses.

A topic worth considering is whether this incremental shift in cheese pricing indicates a longer-term trend or is only a transitory surge. Given the present market dynamics, farmers must plan and lock in favorable pricing via futures contracts.

Are you ready to manage these market shifts? The most recent statistics point to cautious optimism, although caution is still required. Keep an eye on these developments; they can change the dairy sector landscape in the months ahead. Remember, even in optimistic times, caution is your best ally.

The Unexpected Surge of Whey and Nonfat Dry Milk Prices 

Whey and nonfat dry milk prices have grown dramatically, establishing themselves as notable participants in the dairy industry. According to the statistics, the cost of dry whey rose from $0.56/lb to $0.5875/lb in only one week, a 2.75 cent rise. Similarly, nonfat dry milk increased by 3.5 cents between $1.33 and $1.365 per pound.

So, what is causing these increases? Several elements come into play. The growing popularity of whey protein in the fitness and culinary sectors and its use as an addition to various processed meals are significant factors. The same applies to nonfat dry milk, often used in baking and dairy-based items. Additionally, global dairy market dynamics, such as the European Union’s consistent growth in milk collection, may have contributed to a demand-supply imbalance, leading to higher prices.

Another explanation might be the global dairy market dynamics. The European Union has seen consistent growth in milk collection for five months, which should contribute to a stable supply. However, growing prices indicate that demand may have outpaced supply, at least in the near term. This is visible in the United States and worldwide, as seen by the rise in nonfat dry milk costs in key exporting nations.

These shifts provide both difficulties and possibilities for dairy farmers and industry experts. On one hand, higher whey and nonfat dry milk prices may boost income. On the other hand, they may increase input costs for companies that rely on these products. It’s worth considering: have you seen any comparable patterns in your operations lately? How are the price increases affecting your business?

The Futures Market: A Crucial Litmus Test for Stability

The dairy futures market has been relatively stable over the last week, with prices trading sideways. This stability comes after high volatility, notably in Class III and IV futures. Table 2 shows that six-month strips for these classes remain over $21/cwt, suggesting a steady outlook shortly. September Class III futures are $22.77/cwt, with a progressive fall from October to February from $22.25/cwt to $19.51/cwt.

Class IV futures follow a similar trend, beginning at $22.34/cwt in September and falling to $21.55/cwt in February. These futures prices indicate that, despite modest swings, the dairy industry is preparing for higher-than-average prices in the next six months. The flat price movement may reflect market players’ expectations of stable demand and supply circumstances.

These developments have a significant impact on dairy producers. If implemented, the increased pricing might result in higher margins and revenues. A Class III price continuously over $21/cwt frequently results in more excellent milk checks, which improves profitability. This is a reason for optimism, especially when input prices remain high. The statistics demonstrate this potential, with Class III and IV spot market prices indicating strong demand.

Regarding component pricing, butterfat, and protein prices will likely remain generally consistent, supporting the projection for solid revenue. Over the next six months, butterfat will cost $3.49/lb, and protein will cost $2.44/lb. These measurements show that the dairy product mix will remain lucrative, boosting farmers’ revenue streams.

Dairy producers should take these findings into account when developing their production strategy. Locking in current futures prices via hedging methods may be a wise way to reduce possible adverse risks. Keeping a close watch on market developments will be critical as the sector navigates current pricing levels. The current stability provides a window of opportunity, but aggressive management will be required to capitalize on it.

Global Dairy Trade Index: A Complex Landscape 

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index fell 0.4% at the most recent auction, which took place on September 3rd. This minor fall conceals a more complicated picture of worldwide dairy commodity pricing. While prices for anhydrous milkfat, cheddar cheese, mozzarella, and skim milk powder rose, the cost of whole milk powder, which has a considerable influence on the GDT, fell by 2.5%. These uneven developments reflect the various dynamics in the global dairy sector.

Comparative Price Analysis 

Prices in the European Union (EU), Oceania, and the United States show significant variances. On September 1st, butter prices were highest in the EU at $3.52 per pound, followed by the United States at $3.18, and lowest in Oceania at $3.06. The United States led in skim milk powder/nonfat dry milk (SMP/NDM) prices at $1.31 per pound, followed by the European Union at $1.24 and Oceania at $1.19.

Whole milk powder (WMP) costs were most competitive in the United States, at $2.33 per pound. At the same time, the EU and Oceania lag at $2.02 and $1.60, respectively. Cheddar prices in the United States remained robust at $2.21 per pound, beating the European Union ($1.97) and Oceania ($1.98). The GDT auction matched similar patterns, with prices for Cheddar and Mozzarella rising by 0.9% and 7.0%, respectively. Anhydrous milkfat prices rose 0.7%, but butter prices declined 0.9%, reflecting the worldwide market’s complicated supply and demand dynamics.

Impact on Local Markets 

These global developments will undoubtedly influence local markets. Domestic prices have outperformed overseas quotes, which may comfort American dairy producers. However, the modest dip in the GDT index may temper hopes of future price stability. With more excellent prices for specific items such as butter, European markets may face additional pressure to stay competitive. Conversely, the drop in whole milk powder prices may provide difficulties for farmers who rely primarily on this commodity in international commerce.

Finally, remaining educated and adaptive will be critical for dairy farmers and industry stakeholders as they manage these changing global patterns. Have you seen these effects on your operations yet? Reviewing your tactics in light of the changing market circumstances may be necessary.

European Milk Production on the Rise: What It Means for the Market 

Milk production in the European Union has steadily increased, with collections reaching 12,611,000 metric tons (27.80 billion pounds) in June 2024. This is an increase of 41,000 tons (90.4 million pounds) or 0.33% over June 2023. Five countries—Germany, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Italy—accounted for more than 64% of the total, illustrating where the manufacturing powerhouses are.

France stands out with a 55,000-metric-ton gain, significantly contributing to total growth. Austria and Spain also experienced significant increases, with 11,700 and 11,200 metric tons respectively. Conversely, Italy saw the most essential fall, dropping by 33,700 metric tons, followed by the Netherlands and Ireland, which fell by 26,300 and 13,600 metric tons, respectively.

In the first half of 2024, European milk output increased by 0.9%, totaling 667,000 metric tons (1.47 billion pounds). This steady increase in supply, particularly from large players like France, has the potential to affect both global dairy prices and local markets dramatically. An increased supply typically stabilizes prices, but if it exceeds demand, it may cause prices to fall. This situation may help consumers in the near term but may provide issues for manufacturers with narrower profit margins.

Furthermore, more excellent European production may raise competitiveness in global markets, especially for exporters from other areas. Local markets in Europe may have varying effects, with places seeing production increases benefitting from economies of scale. At the same time, those with diminishing production may face narrower margins and less control over price fixing.

USDA’s Latest Report: Critical Updates for Strategic Planning

Last Wednesday, the USDA issued its most recent data on August national dairy product and component prices. These updates provide valuable information for dairy producers and industry stakeholders. Let’s look at some of the critical changes and their ramifications.

Starting with butter, prices fell by less than a cent from July (from $3.121 to $3.114 per pound). Despite this tiny decline, butterfat prices remain historically high, at $3.56 per pound. Even with modest swings, this consistency may help farmers who depend heavily on butterfat for revenue.

Protein costs grew significantly, climbing 23 cents per pound from July to $2.18/lb. While this price is more than the nutritional cost of producing one pound of protein (about $0.90/lb), it is still lower than the long-term average, which ranges between $2.53 and $2.93 per pound. Nonetheless, the increase in protein pricing is a favorable trend for dairy producers prioritizing protein output.

Class III and IV milk prices also exhibited significant increases. The Class III price rose to $20.66 per hundredweight (cwt), up $0.87 from $19.79 in July. This rise eventually pushes the Class III price over its long-term average, which is between $18.55 and $20.20/cwt. Similarly, Class IV prices increased, hitting $21.58/cwt, nearly $2.75 higher than their long-term range of $18.00 to $19.60. Such changes may improve profitability for dairy producers, particularly those working on tight margins.

Understanding these tendencies is critical to effective strategic planning. For example, the rise in protein costs presents an opportunity to capitalize on protein-rich goods, resulting in increased income. Furthermore, consistently rising butterfat pricing may induce a rethink of breeding and feeding strategies to increase butterfat yield. Finally, rising Class III and IV prices indicate a more robust market situation, allowing farmers to expand their businesses confidently.

These market dynamics are not isolated data; they represent a larger picture of a generally good trend in the dairy business. Dairy farmers and industry experts may better manage the market’s complexities by being educated and adapting to changes.

The Bottom Line

Looking forward, it’s evident that the dairy sector is in a state of substantial transformation. Cheese prices continue to climb but at a slower rate than previously. The sharp rise in whey and nonfat dry milk pricing demonstrates the market’s unpredictability. Futures markets are stable, with Class III and IV prices well over $21/cwt, indicating that dairy producers may get positive news before the end of the year. Global variables, such as fluctuations in the Global Dairy Trade Index and expanding European milk output, add to the complexity. The USDA’s most recent statistics highlight key pricing swings that may influence strategic planning.

Staying educated about these developments isn’t just advantageous; it’s necessary. The dairy market’s volatility requires ongoing awareness and rapid change to ensure profitability and sustainability. How will you respond to the shifting market conditions? Staying current with industry news and trends enables you to make educated judgments. Keep your ears on the ground and your eyes on the horizon.

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European Dairy Prices Soar: A Four-Week Winning Streak

Stay ahead with the latest dairy market trends and stats. Ready to elevate your dairy business?

Summary: The past week in the dairy industry has been characterized by robust trading and significant price movements across various futures markets. EEX saw a total of 5,930 tonnes traded, with notable activity in butter and SMP futures. Meanwhile, SGX futures witnessed an impressive 11,411 tonnes traded, spearheaded by WMP. European quotations and cheese indices continued their upward trends, marking the fourth and fifth consecutive positive weeks, respectively. Fonterra’s GDT Pulse Auction also saw substantial price hikes, while strategic volume adjustments were made ahead of GDT TE363. On the production front, milk collection data for July presents a mixed global outlook, with varying trends across key regions. European butter prices have risen by over 70% last year, indicating significant changes in the dairy market. Dairy producers must stay updated on market trends and data to make informed production, pricing, and investment decisions. The European Energy Exchange (EEX) has seen increased trading activity, with 5,930 tonnes of butter, 3,165 tonnes of skimmed milk powder (SMP), and 50 tonnes of whey moved last week. Butter futures on the EEX rose by 1.8% for the seventh week in a row, raising the average price to €7,535. SMP futures rose by 0.3%, bringing the average price to €2,683, and whey futures rose 7.0%, increasing the average cost to €975. SGX dairy futures experienced robust trading and price jumps, with Whole Milk Powder (WMP) leading the way. European quotes show a persistent increasing trajectory, making this the fourth consecutive positive week for all essential dairy products. Cheese indices show a sustained rising trend for important kinds, with the fifth consecutive week of advances. Stay informed and ahead of the curve with these market insights, ensuring your operations remain competitive and profitable in a dynamic global dairy market.

  • Total traded volume on EEX last week was 5,930 tonnes, with significant activity in butter and SMP futures.
  • SGX futures saw an impressive 11,411 tonnes traded, with Whole Milk Powder (WMP) showing the strongest performance.
  • European quotations and cheese indices continued their upward trends, marking the fourth and fifth consecutive positive weeks, respectively.
  • Fonterra’s GDT Pulse Auction experienced notable price hikes.
  • Strategic volume adjustments were made by Fonterra ahead of GDT TE363.
  • Mixed trends in global milk collection data for July, with variations across key regions.
  • European butter prices have risen by over 70% compared to last year.
  • Dairy producers should stay updated on market trends and data to make well-informed decisions.

Have you noticed the remarkable surge in European butter prices, which escalated by over 70% last year? This substantial shift in the dairy market underscores the pressing need for producers to stay abreast of market trends and data. Understanding these fluctuations is crucial for making informed production, pricing, and investment decisions. In the increasingly unpredictable global dairy market, having the correct information at your disposal could be the key to thriving rather than just surviving.

Surging Trades and Rising Prices: EEX Dairy Futures on the Move

The European Energy Exchange (EEX) has seen increased trading activity lately, with 5,930 tonnes (1,186 lots) moved last week. This comprised 2,225 tonnes of butter, 3,165 tonnes of skimmed milk powder (SMP), and 50 tonnes of whey. The trade volume peaked on Wednesday, with 3,080 tons changing hands.

Butter futures on the EEX rose for the seventh week in a row by 1.8%. This raised the average price during the Sep 24-Apr 25 period to €7,535, despite modest reductions in the October 24 and April 25 contracts. SMP futures, on the other hand, rose by 0.3%, bringing the average price to €2,683 over the same future strip. Meanwhile, whey futures rose 7.0%, increasing the average cost to €975.

SGX Dairy Futures: Robust Trading and Price Jumps

Last week, SGX activity fluctuated significantly. A total of 11,411 lots or tons were exchanged, with Whole Milk Powder (WMP) leading the way. WMP saw 9,126 lots change hands, cementing its status as a significant participant. The average price for WMP for the Sep 24-Apr25 curve rose 3.1% to $3,543.

Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) also had an active trading week. With 1,960 lots traded, the average price rose 1.3% to $2,838. This upward trend suggests that SMP will continue to be in high demand in the future months.

Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) traded 200 lots, resulting in a 4.3% increase in the average price, currently $6,947, from September 24 to April 25. With a slightly smaller number of 125 lots exchanged, Butter saw the most significant relative price gain of 4.8%, hitting $6,661.

These patterns in the dairy futures traded on SGX paint a positive picture, fueled by sustained demand and favorable trading conditions. This optimistic market sentiment should reassure dairy producers about the current market conditions.

European Quotations Show Steady Rise: Fourth Consecutive Positive Week for Key Dairy Products

Recent trends in European quotes have shown a persistent increasing trajectory, making this the fourth straight positive week for all essential dairy products. Butter prices have risen by 2.7%, and the index is currently at €7,600. German butter had the biggest gain, up 4.7% to €7,800. This is a considerable increase of 72.5% above last year’s average butter price of €3,193.

Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) has also seen consistent improvements, with a 1.2% rise taking the index to €2,467. German SMP witnessed the most increase, jumping by 3.1% to €2,515. SMP prices have risen by 11.9% yearly, averaging €262 more than the previous year.

The whey market has performed exceptionally well, with the index rising 6.7% to €728. Dutch and German whey prices increased by 10.8% and 9.2%, respectively. Whey prices are up 28.4% from a year earlier, showing a solid demand spike.

Whole Milk Powder (WMP) has also performed well, up 3.6% to €4,148. Dutch WMP had the most significant increase at 4.9%, hitting €4,280. Overall, WMP costs are 23.7% more than last year, with the average price increasing by €795.

The European dairy industry is experiencing considerable price hikes, indicating more robust demand and tighter supply conditions than last year.

European Cheese Indices: Consistent Gains Over Five Weeks

Cheese indices show a sustained rising trend for important kinds, with the fifth consecutive week of advances. Cheddar Curd rose by €154 (+3.5%) last week to €4,590 and is now €826 (+21.9%) higher than last year. Mild Cheddar followed suit, rising €89 (+2.0%) to €4,555, representing a €719 (+18.7%) year-over-year rise.

Young Gouda also excelled, rising €204 (+5.0%) to €4,325, exceeding last year’s levels by €891 (+25.9%). Finally, Mozzarella substantially increased, rising €176 (+4.2%) to €4,366, now €999 (+29.7%) higher than the previous year. These indexes point to a positive market attitude and optimistic prospects for European cheese variants.

GDT Pulse Auction (PA059) Sees Notable Price Hikes and Vibrant Trading Activity

The last GDT Pulse Auction (PA059) showed a considerable increase in pricing and engagement. The average winning price for Fonterra Regular C2 WMP was $3,560, up $50 (+1.7%) from the previous GDT auction and $300 (+9.2%) from the prior pulse sale. Fonterra SMP Medium Heat – NZ likewise saw an increase, hitting $2,670, up $70 (+2.7%) from the previous GDT auction and $120 (+4.7%) above the last price pulse. Participants showed strong interest, with 51 bids vs 49 in the last pulse, acquiring 1,972 tons across all items. This somewhat diminishes the previous pulse auction’s 2,000 tons sold while demonstrating robust and sustained market involvement.

Fonterra’s Strategic Volume Adjustments Ahead of GDT TE363: Key Reductions and Steady Forecasts

Fonterra recently issued its volume projection for the next GDT TE363 event, which included some significant changes. The most noteworthy adjustment is a drop of 1,500 tonnes of Whole Milk Powder (WMP), lowering the overall 12-month volume to 349,753 tonnes. This drop reflects market demand and demonstrates Fonterra’s response to current trends.

Meanwhile, the predicted quantities for Skim Milk Powder (SMP) remain steady, representing an 18.7% increase over the August event, with 9,450 tons available this week. Similarly, cream group quantities remain unaltered in the forecast and prior event, with a maximum of 5,935 tonnes, which aligns with 12-month predictions of 99,895 tonnes.

Eight hundred forty tons of Cheddar will be available, showing Fonterra’s thorough rephrasing to fit market demands better. Fonterra’s strategic modifications to product levels for TE363 attempt to optimize supply in response to observed market dynamics and expected demand.

Mixed Signals: Global Overview of July Milk Production Data

The most recent milk production figures from several nations show a mixed picture of increases and decreases yearly. Let us start with Poland. StatPoland stated that milk output in July was 1.13 million tons, a 0.9% rise yearly. Cumulative output for 2024 is 8.04 million tons, up 3.7% yearly. The raw milk price in July was €45.55/100kg, representing a 4.0% increase year over year.

In the Netherlands, milk collections for July were recorded as 1.15 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous year. In 2024, cumulative collections were 8.19 million tons, a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. Milkfat content increased slightly to 4.30%, compared to 4.29% last year.

Milk output in the United Kingdom fell 0.1% year on year in July, exceeding expectations of a 0.3% drop. Cumulative output was 9.23 million tons, a 0.1% decrease yearly. The milkfat concentration was lower at 4.10%, compared to 4.14% last year. Farmgate milk prices increased by 10.7% yearly, reaching 39.48 pence per liter.

In New Zealand, Fonterra reported July milk collections of 20.6 million kgMS, a 9.0% increase yearly. Season-to-date receipts were 35 million kgMS, up 4.1% from the previous season. North Island collections increased 10.3% yearly to 18.9 million kgMS, while South Island collections decreased by 3.6% yearly to 1.7 million kgMS.

The Bottom Line

The most recent statistics from EEX and SGX futures highlight dairy commodities’ volatile but promising picture. The market demonstrates durability and development potential as butter and SMP futures on EEX rise. In contrast, European quotes and cheese indices rise steadily. The variable milk production data from Poland, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Fonterra provide a nuanced perspective that deserves careful consideration.

Dairy producers must keep up with current market movements. Understanding future pricing and production levels helps them make educated choices that optimize their operations and increase profitability. This market knowledge may significantly impact modifying manufacturing tactics or planning future investments.

Are you ensuring your farm’s strategy matches these market realities? Stay proactive and informed, and drive your operations to success.

Learn more:

Join the Revolution!

Bullvine Daily is your essential e-zine for staying ahead in the dairy industry. With over 30,000 subscribers, we bring you the week’s top news, helping you manage tasks efficiently. Stay informed about milk production, tech adoption, and more, so you can concentrate on your dairy operations. 

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