Archive for TPI rankings

Elevation Still Leads at 15.2%: How Holstein USA’s August 2026 Top 15 All Connect

15.2%. That’s the share of genes a bull born in 1965 still has in common with the top 400 proven U.S. sires. We mapped how Elevation, Chief and 13 more link within four generations.

In early July 1966, Ronald Hope took Walter McClure to see a bull calf. The calf was tied up at Round Oak Farm near Purcellville, Virginia, being readied for show season. McClure had just left his job as Loudoun County’s Extension dairy agent to join the Virginia Animal Breeders Association (VABA).

“Ronald stated that we needed to purchase this bull calf for the stud.” — Walter McClure, Virginia Holstein Association centennial feature

It almost didn’t happen. The following Monday, McClure went to VABA manager George Miller. Miller already knew the calf, because he’d talked Hope into the mating. But Miller said he and Hope couldn’t make a deal, and told McClure to take it to the sire committee himself.

The seven-member committee came later that month, after the state Holstein field day at neighboring Foxlease Farm. Hope asked $3,000. VABA had never paid more than $1,000 for a young sire. The committee sent Miller back with an offer, and he came back with a deal: $2,800, with Hope keeping the bull until after the Eastern National Show.

That ten-month-old calf was Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation. Sixty years later, he’s No. 1 in this influence ranking. No. 2 was born three years earlier, in California, to a cow whose Nebraska breeder never got to see how far his bull’s influence would reach. Below, The Bullvine traces how all 15 bulls at the top of the list connect within four generations, and what the ranking can’t tell you about your next mating.

The calf, grown. Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation as a mature bull, years after VABA paid $2,800 for him in 1966, nearly three times its previous high for a young sire. Photo: Remsberg. Graphic: The Bullvine. Read more: Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation: The Bull That Changed Everything

What the 2026 Holstein Influence Ranking Measures

Holstein Association USA ranks sires by the percentage of genes they share with the top 400 progeny-proven TPI bulls in the United States. It’s an American measure built on elite proven bulls, not a census of cows. These figures should be broadly similar elsewhere, because American bulls have been used so heavily worldwide.

OrderSireNAAB codeGenes in commonBorn
1Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation7HO5815.2%1965
2Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief40HO202514.9%1962
3O-Bee Manfred Justice (O-Man)7HO641713.6%1998
4Mountfield SSI DCY Mogul7HO1131413.4%2010
5Ensenada Taboo Planet7HO808110.2%2003
6Roylane Socra Robust7HO1052410.2%2008
7Osborndale Ivanhoe15HO5410.0%1952
8Picston Shottle29HO122099.9%1999
9S-W-D Valiant29HO28519.8%1973
10Carlin-M Ivanhoe Bell7HO5439.8%1974
11Seagull-Bay Supersire7HO113518.7%2010
12Emprise Bell Elton7HO22367.9%1983
13Hanoverhill Starbuck73HO4317.7%1979
14Tidy Burke Elevation1HO797.6%1955
15Walkway Chief Mark7HO9807.5%1978

Source: Holstein Association USA, August 2026. Birth years are as published. NAAB codes are shown in short form (7HO58 = 007HO00058), as listed in NAAB, Select Sires, ST Genetics, Alta and ABS records; each code links to its source.

How to read the table:

  • Bulls appear in Holstein USA’s published order.
  • Equal figures are equal only at the precision shown: Planet and Robust, Valiant and Bell, and Chief Mark and No. 16, Pawnee Farm Reflection Admiral.
  • The percentages overlap and can’t be added together. Tidy Burke Elevation shows exactly half his son’s figure, and Reflection Admiral approximately half of Chief’s. Much of the same DNA is counted for both father and son.

This measures historical influence, not current breeding merit.

Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation: The 1966 Purchase

Elevation was born on August 30, 1965. Dairy Agenda Today’s centennial series describes his breeding as “the magical mating of two inbred Holsteins”, a joint effort by Hope and his cousin, George Miller.

  • His sire, Tidy Burke Elevation, was an inbred Wis Burke Ideal son. He traced 11 times to Wisconsin Admiral Burke Lad, the foundation of the Burke bloodlines.
  • His dam, Round Oak Ivanhoe Eve 4E-94, was “a big, tall, open-ribbed Ivanhoe daughter.” She traced 20 times to Johanna Rag Apple Pabst, founder of the Rag Apple lines.

McClure had watched Eve since she was born, and he called her a tremendous cow in both production and type. She had two Excellent daughters, both full sisters to Elevation. Even so, McClure writes, Elevation was the only one of her offspring to make a significant contribution to the breed. Round Oak sold Eve in its first sale, on March 5, 1970, for $11,000, before Elevation was well known.

Elevation didn’t win everything. Shown as a calf at the 50th Anniversary Virginia Spring Holstein Show, he placed second in his class.

Eve’s sire, Osborndale Ivanhoe, ranks seventh today, and not just because of Elevation. Thanks to a series of influential daughters and several sons, including Fleetridge Monitor, Hilltop Apollo Ivanhoe, Provin Mtn Ivanhoe Jewel and Penstate Ivanhoe Star.

Elevation’s First Daughters: Doubt, Then a Guarantee

When Elevation went into stud, AI was moving from fresh to frozen semen. VABA was collecting semen two or three times a week, then diluting and refrigerating it and shipping it to technicians by bus or mail.

His first daughters began calving in the late 1960s. McClure writes that there were initial concerns when breeders looked at his first crop of bred heifers. Once those heifers calved, it was clear he was a very special bull.

Miller didn’t wait. Elevation was at Michigan-Select Sires with a group of young sires awaiting their proofs. McClure writes that Miller persuaded the stud to start collecting him.

Miller convinced them to start collecting Elevation, “stating that he would purchase all of the semen he produced if necessary.” — Walter McClure, Virginia Holstein Association centennial feature

That gave Virginia the first Elevation daughters and a head start on the next generation. VABA’s most-used Holstein at the time was Oregon Challenger Baron. His daughters were strong, with good feet and legs, but their udders needed help. McClure says Elevation fixed those udders consistently.

After VABA joined Select Sires, McClure writes, Elevation’s daughters were bred to Chief, Valiant and the breed’s other leading bulls.

The Virginia Holstein Association centennial series and USDA give three measures of how far his genetics spread:

Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief: A Pedigree Built in Nebraska

On April 14, 1962, buyers from seven states gathered on Lester Fishler’s farm near Central City, Nebraska, as he sold his entire herd. Fishler had bred both of Chief’s parents in his own Pawnee herd. This resulted from successful imports from Canada. Illness forced the dispersal.

Chief’s dam, Pawnee Farm Glenvue Beauty, went to Wally Lindskoog in California while pregnant, and Chief was born there. “Arlinda” was Lindskoog’s prefix. Fishler wasn’t able to see the legend he’d created.

If Elevation’s story is about a stud’s bet, Chief’s is about what that Nebraska pedigree produced. Rus Shortridge, a California Holstein fieldman at the time, remembered the young bull as having “a front end like a bulldozer”.

The front end Rus Shortridge remembered. Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief as a mature bull, a Nebraska pedigree calved in California after Lester Fishler’s 1962 dispersal. Read more: The $4,300 Gamble That Reshaped Global Dairy Industry: The Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief Story

The numbers show how heavily breeders used him. A 2016 UC Davis account credited Chief with 16,000 daughters, 500,000 granddaughters and more than 2 million great-granddaughters. It also noted that his sons were popular sires in their own right. Two of them are in the top 15: Walkway Chief Mark and S-W-D Valiant. Valiant is out of Allied Admiral Rose Vivian, by Irvington Pride Admiral.

UC Davis’s 2016 account said Chief’s chromosomes made up almost 14% of the U.S. Holstein population’s genome at that time. That’s a different measure from the 14.9% in the table, which is about the top 400 proven bulls, not the whole cow population. His sire, Reflection Admiral, is No. 16 today at 7.5%.

How the Lead Changed Hands, and Came Back

Holstein USA started publishing the list in 1988, with Chief first at 15.5% and Elevation second at 14.9%. In 1989 they swapped places, Elevation at 17.1% and Chief at 16.6%. From 1991 until around 2000, Chief led again.

Then two newer bulls overtook them both: To-Mar Blackstar and Carlin-M Ivanhoe Bell. This is a result of all the sons the pair launched into the top 400, and calls Blackstar the world’s most widely used sire of all time. It traces their lines this way:

  • Bell is a son of Penstate Ivanhoe Star, who ranks 23rd largely because of him.
  • Emprise Bell Elton, 12th, is Bell’s most significant son and O-Man’s maternal grandsire.
  • Blackstar has fallen to 19th. His strongest link to today’s top bulls likely runs through his son Emory, several generations back in Robust’s pedigree.
The bull who outranked both. Carlin-M Ivanhoe Bell, whose sons carried him past Elevation and Chief before 2009, and whose son Elton became O-Man’s maternal grandsire. Photo: Remsberg. Graphic: The Bullvine. Read more: Bell’s Paradox: The Worst Best Bull in Holstein History

Elevation and Chief were back on top by 2009, in that order, and they’ve stayed there. Their figures are almost the same as in 1988, despite every change to the TPI formula since. The published record doesn’t explain why they returned to the top in 2009.

Valiant, Starbuck and Chief Mark: The 1970s Sires

  • S-W-D Valiant (1973) was third when the list began in 1988, and he’s still ninth. He sired two millionaires, one of them Hanover-Hill Inspiration (Holstein Canada), who is Shottle’s maternal great-grandsire. Shottle’s dam, Condon Aero Sharon, is by Madawaska Aerostar, No. 20 on the extended list at 6.9%. Her dam, Condon Inspiration Sally, is by Inspiration.
  • Hanoverhill Starbuck (1979) is one of Elevation’s most important sons. For many years he was the leading sire of All-Americans. He first appeared on this list in 1996 and is now 13th. He’s also Aerostar’s sire.
  • Walkway Chief Mark (1978) rounds out the top 15 at 7.5%, equal at this precision with his grandsire, Reflection Admiral.

O-Bee Manfred Justice: The Fitness Turn

O-Bee Manfred Justice was born on March 8, 1998, bred by Gary, Gaylon and Steve Obert of Dakota, Illinois. He’s a Manfred son out of Meier-Meadows EL Jezebel EX-92, with Elton as maternal grandsire.

In the May 2003 USDA/Interbull summary, he jumped from 21st to No. 1 for Net Merit at $759. He also topped Holstein USA’s TPI list at 1872.

A 2007 USDA paper by geneticist Paul VanRaden named him the best bull in the world as of August 2007, based on the international evaluation. It compared his daughters with average herdmates:

TraitJustice daughtersHerdmates
Protein2.82 lb/day2.62 lb/day
Somatic cell count231,000 cells/mL288,000 cells/mL
Productive life34.0 months27.7 months
Pregnancy rate23.9%21.0%

Across all the traits in USDA’s 2007 comparison, an average O-Man daughter was worth $778 more over her lifetime than her herdmates.

Mountfield SSI DCY Mogul: “The Modern Day Elevation”

O-Man, Mogul and Planet have held third through fifth, in that order, since 2022. The gap between O-Man and Mogul is now 13.6% to 13.4% Mogul is edging ever closer to O-Man and may well be chasing third place.

Mogul came out of the Mountfield herd. His dam, Mountfield Marsh Maxine-ET VG-88, is a Pasen Marsh daughter out of an O-Man dam, which makes O-Man Mogul’s maternal great-grandsire. His sire, Coyne-Farms Dorcy, is on the extended list at 7.2%.

Twelve years younger, two-tenths of a point behind. Mountfield SSI DCY Mogul, the highest-ranked bull born after O-Man, his maternal great-grandsire. Read more: They Called Mogul’s Heifers Fat. Then Came the Million Doses.

In September 2017, at seven, Mogul passed one million units in sales. Select Sires’ announcement drew the comparison to No. 1 directly.

“He is referred to as the modern day 7HO58 ELEVATION because of that consistent dominance.” — Rick VerBeek, Select Sires, September 25, 2017 release

Roylane Socra Robust: Influence Without Numbers

Roylane Socra Robust was born on December 23, 2008, bred by Gary and Bruce Roylance of Warden, Washington. He’s by Velvet-View-KJ Socrates, who’s on the extended list at 5.3%, out of the O-Man daughter Seagull-Bay Oman Mirror.

He has climbed from tenth at 9.6% in 2022 to sixth at 10.2% today. He died young and sired only a few offspring. His August 2026 Select Sires page lists 2,697 production daughters in 648 herds, which is a small figure in this company.

Counting a bull’s sons alone can undersell his reach. Miss OCD Delicious, alongside the millionaire Supersire, are key to Robust’s rise.

His son Seagull-Bay Supersire debuted in April 2015 as the breed’s No. 1 daughter-proven GTPI sire. He held that spot for four straight evaluations.

Planet, Shottle and Supersire: Where the Branches Meet

Ensenada Taboo Planet, born in 2003, became the eighth sire in Select Sires’ history to pass one million units, the cooperative announced in late 2013.

Picston Shottle was born on July 23, 1999, at the Pickford family’s Spot Acre Grange near Stafford, England, out of Condon Aero Sharon EX-91. ABS says he topped TPI for seven straight proof runs, January 2008 through January 2010. He sold 1,174,948 units and left more than 100,000 daughters in 20,000 herds across 22 countries. His sire, the Italian bull Carol Prelude Mtoto, is on the extended list at 5.9%.

Chief and Elevation, through his dam. Picston Shottle, an English-bred son of an Italian sire, whose maternal lines run back through Aerostar to Starbuck and through Inspiration to Valiant. Read more: From Depression-Era Auction to Global Dominance: The Picston Shottle Legacy

Seagull-Bay Supersire was born on December 28, 2010, bred by Seagull-Bay Holsteins of American Falls, Idaho. His pedigree reads Robust x Planet x Shottle, so three top-15 bulls sit in his first three generations.

How the Top 15 Connect: A Bullvine Pedigree Cross-Reference

The influence table ranks each bull separately. The Bullvine compared their pedigrees using registry and AI-company pedigree records and the sources cited above. Every bull in the 2026 top 15 is linked to at least one other top-15 bull within four generations. The 15 relationships below also join all 15 into a single connected web.

Legend: Red border = top four in the August 2026 influence ranking. Numbers in parentheses = rank. Solid arrow = sire to son. Dashed arrow = through one or more intermediate ancestors, on either the paternal or maternal side. Arrows point from ancestor to descendant.
Source: Bullvine cross-reference of registry and AI-company pedigree records.
Ancestor (2026 rank)Descendant (rank)Relationship
Tidy Burke Elevation (14)Elevation (1)Sire
Osborndale Ivanhoe (7)Elevation (1)Maternal grandsire, through Eve
Elevation (1)Starbuck (13)Sire
Chief (2)Chief Mark (15)Sire
Chief (2)Valiant (9)Sire
Osborndale Ivanhoe (7)Bell (10)Paternal grandsire, through Penstate Ivanhoe Star
Bell (10)Elton (12)Sire
Elton (12)O-Man (3)Maternal grandsire
O-Man (3)Robust (6)Maternal grandsire
O-Man (3)Mogul (4)Maternal great-grandsire
Starbuck (13)Shottle (8)Maternal great-grandsire, through Aerostar and Shottle’s dam
Valiant (9)Shottle (8)Four generations back on the maternal side: Valiant → Inspiration → Condon Inspiration Sally → Condon Aero Sharon → Shottle
Robust (6)Supersire (11)Sire
Planet (5)Supersire (11)Maternal grandsire
Shottle (8)Supersire (11)Maternal great-grandsire

Bullvine cross-reference. This is a selection of documented relationships, not a complete or random sample. Eight of the 15 relationships shown involve the descendant’s maternal side. That doesn’t prove how influence moves through the breed as a whole. It does show that reading sire lines alone would miss several of these connections, including the ones that link Chief and Elevation to Shottle.

The Cost of Concentration: Recessives and Inbreeding

The influence ranking shows how widely a bull’s genes run through today’s elite proven bulls. It doesn’t show what came along with them.

A haplotype is a stretch of DNA variants that’s inherited together. Haplotypes let researchers follow a section of chromosome through pedigrees before they know which variant inside it causes a problem.

Chief and APAF1. USDA researchers linked a haplotype on chromosome 5 to lower fertility and embryo loss, and traced it back to Chief. UC Davis researchers had already sequenced Chief and his carrier son, Walkway Chief Mark, in 2009. With that head start, they found a candidate nonsense mutation in the APAF1 gene in under 24 hours. Chief Mark’s August 2026 Select Sires page still lists him as HH1C, an HH1 carrier. (For the full story of how Chief Mark ended up in AI at all, see Walkway Chief Mark: The Backup Bull Behind Seven Percent of Every Holstein Cow.)

Healthy carriers, hidden losses. Chief’s HH1 and Bell’s CVM spread for decades because carriers look normal. The loss shows up only when two carriers mate. 

One copy makes an animal a carrier. An embryo inheriting two copies doesn’t survive to birth. None of the 758 animals tested in the study had two copies, and neither did any of the more than 246,000 Holsteins in commercial testing.

The study’s loss figures are modeled estimates, not counted cases:

  • More than 100,000 lost calves in the U.S. and about half a million worldwide over a 30-year period.
  • About $420 million worldwide over the past 35 years. UC Davis separately puts the cost of a single midterm abortion to a dairy at about $800.

UC Davis separately reports an estimate that Chief’s genetic contribution is worth about $30 billion in increased milk production. The benefit and loss figures cover different periods and use different methods. Taken together, they show the scale on both sides, but they aren’t a complete cost-benefit analysis.

CVM. Danish researchers described complex vertebral malformation (CVM) in 2001 and traced affected calves to two common ancestors, both former elite U.S. Holstein sires. Alta and ST Genetics still list Bell’s sire, Penstate Ivanhoe Star, with the CV code for CVM carriers (Alta). (For how that played out through Bell himself, see Bell’s Paradox: The Worst Best Bull in Holstein History.)

Calf muscle weakness. A 2024 Journal of Dairy Science study of 5.6 million genotyped Holsteins found a common haplotype on chromosome 16 that traces back to 1952. Southwind, born in 1984, carried two copies of that haplotype. Sequencing found a candidate missense mutation inside it, but Southwind carried only one copy of the mutation.

So the old haplotype and the newer harmful mutation aren’t interchangeable: plenty of animals carry the haplotype without the mutation. And finding the mutation in Southwind doesn’t establish that it originated with him.

The authors’ conclusion matters for anyone reading a pedigree. Because the original haplotype is so common, a new mutation inside it is hard to track even with accurate pedigrees, so direct tests are needed. Among 46 heifers with livability records that had two copies and traced only to Southwind on both sides, 52% died before 18 months. The figure for non-carriers was 2.4%.

Robust’s August 2026 Select Sires page reports him as HMWC. That’s a reported haplotype status for muscle weakness, not a direct test result for the mutation.

What This Means for Your Operation

Before your next mating, check these three things:

  1. Relationship. A calf’s expected inbreeding depends on how closely its sire and dam are related to each other. Genomic future inbreeding (GFI) and expected future inbreeding (EFI) measure an animal against a reference population. They’re useful for comparing bulls, but they don’t predict the outcome with a particular cow.
  2. Carrier status. Compare both parents’ results, and check whether each one is a reported haplotype status or a direct gene test. For muscle weakness (HMW), that difference matters. Descending from a famous carrier doesn’t tell you an animal’s status. A test does.
  3. Current merit. Compare both parents’ current evaluations against your herd’s breeding goal. Where an ancestor sits in this ranking can’t establish the calf’s expected merit.

A Chain of Decisions, Still Counted

Fishler built Chief’s pedigree on Canadian imports. Lindskoog gave the calf the Arlinda name. At Round Oak, Hope and Miller mated two inbred animals. A stud committee then paid more than it ever had for a young sire, and Miller backed the bull when his first heifers raised doubts.

Every Holstein USA influence ranking since 2009 has put the results of those decisions first and second, at almost the shares recorded in 1988. Breeding and selection decisions made in Nebraska and Virginia more than six decades ago still measurably shape the breed.

Key Takeaways

  • Holstein USA’s August 2026 ranking puts Elevation at 15.2% and Chief at 14.9%, nearly where they stood in 1988. It measures historical influence, not what either line adds to your next mating.
  • The Bullvine’s pedigree cross-reference links all 15 top sires within four generations, and 8 of the 15 links shown run through the dam’s side. Read only sire lines and you’ll miss Chief and Elevation behind Shottle.
  • UC Davis put Chief’s APAF1 losses at about half a million calves worldwide over 30 years, and separately estimated his genetic contribution at $30 billion in milk. Different methods, same lesson: influence this deep cuts both ways.

Your Turn

Among the youngest bulls on the extended 2026 list are Genosource Captain (born 2019, 5.3%), Hurtgen-Lea Richard Charl (2016, 4.1%) and S-S-I Montross Jedi (2014, 3.4%). Which younger sire do you expect to climb furthest by 2036, and why? Share your pick in the comments below or on our Facebook page.

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The Ripcord Risk: Correcting the Genetic Blind Spot in Legs

Seven of the ten highest-GTPI bulls in the U.S. share one father. Every one is positive on udders, negative on feet and legs. Feet and legs correlate −0.11 with TPI — your ranking won’t flag it.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • What happened: Seven of the ten highest-GTPI bulls in the August 12, 2026 U.S. run trace to one father — Ocd Thorson Ripcord-ET — and eight of the top ten on Net Merit $. Every one of those GTPI sons carries a positive Udder Composite alongside a negative Feet & Legs Composite.
  • Why your ranking won’t catch it: In Holstein Association USA’s own August matrix, FLC correlates −0.11 with TPI across 630,295 females born in 2020. That’s not a formula that penalizes legs. It’s a formula that can’t see them. And legs are the slowest thing in the barn to fix — Lactanet puts Holstein Feet & Legs heritability at 13% and Foot Angle at 7%, below the .10 threshold Holstein USA itself says you need for meaningful progress, against stature at 46%.
  • What it costs, and what to do: At $336.91 per clinical lameness case, a 200-cow herd running 20% incidence pays $13,476 a year; one at the 29.5% published median pays $19,878 — a $6,400 swing on the same milk check. The new Holstein Conformation Composite is the first index in years that weights legs heavily, and it correlates just 0.64 with PTAT, which itself runs −0.54 against Livability in that cohort. Before your next semen order, add one column: pull FLC on every straw and note where Ripcord shows up as sire or maternal grandsire.
Feet and Legs Composite

Open the August 12, 2026 evaluation, pull the U.S. GTPI top ten, and check the sires. Seven of those bulls trace to one father: Ocd Thorson Ripcord-ET. On the Net Merit $ top ten, it’s eight of ten.

Now look at their type numbers. The Ripcord sons in that GTPI top ten show a consistent pattern in our review of the August run — positive Udder Composite alongside negative Feet & Legs Composite. Individual values vary, so pull each bull’s own UDC and FLC rather than trusting the pattern. But the direction is the direction, seven times over.

That’s not a popular-sire story. Holsteins have had those for sixty years. That’s one pedigree holding 70 to 80 percent of the top of the U.S. Holstein registry while the trait group most likely to shorten a cow’s stay sits in the same place on all of them.

Why Won’t the Index Catch This?

Because feet and legs barely register in it.

In the correlation matrix Dr. Jason Graham and Dr. Sam Comstock published for the August run — females born 2020, n = 630,295 — Feet & Legs Composite correlates −0.11 with TPI. Call it zero. A bull’s leg composite tells you essentially nothing about where he’ll rank.

Holstein Association USA publishes UDC and FLC separately on every bull, so both numbers sit on every proof sheet you pull. They don’t move a TPI ranking in either direction. A breeder sorting on GTPI or Net Merit sees production, health, and fertility shift the number — and sees nothing from the trait group that decides how many of those daughters are still walking sound at 30 months.

What HCC Actually Rewards

The same run published the Holstein Conformation Composite for every animal in the HAUSA database, and April-to-August scores correlate at 0.99 across 4,055 animals. The calculation is stable out of the gate.

Graham and Comstock pulled the top 25 HCC bulls and averaged all 18 linear traits. Rear Legs Rear View averages +1.61 — the strongest trait in the whole profile. Feet & Legs Score: +1.33. Foot Angle: +0.86. Stature? −0.42. These aren’t tall bulls. They’re better-assembled ones.

That’s the design working as intended. HCC scores each linear trait against a functional optimum and penalizes deviation in either direction. Traditional type evaluation rewards extremes; HCC docks them. Rump angle averages +0.25 across that group, body depth +0.14, rump width +0.52 — near the middle, none pushed.

Across those 25 bulls, HCC runs 2.58 to 3.08 and averages 2.73. PTAT across the same animals averages just 1.43. Same bulls, more than a full point of disagreement between the two scores.

MetricHCC (Holstein Conformation Composite)PTAT (Traditional Type)What it means
Average score, top 25 bulls2.731.43Same bulls score a full point apart
Rear Legs Rear View (avg deviation)+1.61Not separately weightedHCC’s single strongest trait
Correlation with Livability−0.07 (essentially none)−0.54PTAT selection tracks with cows leaving sooner
Correlation with Productive LifeNot published in this run−0.38Same pattern, second metric
Correlation with Feet & Legs Composite+0.57+0.64Both “see” legs; TPI (−0.11) doesn’t
Correlation between HCC and PTAT0.640.64Related, not interchangeable

The Longevity Number Worth Arguing With

In that 630,295-female cohort, PTAT correlates −0.54 with Livability and −0.38 with Productive Life. HCC correlates a milder −0.18, and essentially nothing at −0.07.

Cows bred for higher PTAT left the herd sooner. Graham and Comstock flag the caveat themselves — correlations shift with the population you sample. Fair enough. But the direction holds in both their bull-list work and their cow-level matrix, and the two composites correlate just 0.64 with each other. Related. Not interchangeable.

Feet & Legs Composite correlates +0.57 with HCC and +0.64 with PTAT. Both type composites see legs. TPI doesn’t.

The Barn Math on a Leg Decision

Legs build slowly and erode fast, and the heritability numbers are worse than most breeders assume. Lactanet’s April 2025 heritability table puts Holstein Feet & Legs at 13% and Foot Angle at just 7% — against stature at 46% and rump angle at 41%. Rear Legs Rear View, the trait topping the HCC profile, sits at 11%. Locomotion is 5%.

Holstein Association USA puts the threshold plainly on its Linear Type Evaluations page: “It is difficult to make much genetic progress through selection and mating unless a trait has a heritability of .10 or higher.”

Foot Angle doesn’t clear that bar. Feet & Legs barely does. Stature clears it by a factor of four. You can move udder in a mating cycle. Legs take generations — exactly the wrong shape of problem to inherit from seven bulls at once.

So price the downside. The average clinical lameness case runs $336.91, climbing $13.26 for every additional week a cow stays lame, per Robcis and colleagues in the Journal of Dairy Science.

Two scenarios on a 200-cow herd. At a conservative 20% annual incidence — 40 cases, $13,476 a year. At the 29.5% median cow-level prevalence found across the published literature — 59 affected cows and roughly $19,878, though prevalence and annual case count aren’t the same measure. Either way, the gap between those two herds runs about $6,400 a year, and genetics is one of the levers moving you between them.

Lameness accounted for 9.1% of the total U.S. cull rate in the 2018 USDA/NAHMS survey, with injuries adding 3.5%. That puts locomotion third among involuntary culling reasons, behind infertility at 23.3% and mastitis at 18.6%.

The Part That Costs Labor, Not Just Dollars

Treatment cost is the easy number. The harder one is what a low-FLC group does to your routine.

Two or three hoof trimmings during first lactation improve hoof health in early second lactation — and improve survival into that second lactation. Read that alongside the heritability math and the shape of the problem changes. A group of daughters with weaker feet and legs doesn’t just generate treatment invoices. It generates trim appointments, restraint time, and labor you’d budgeted somewhere else.

The disease genetics are thinner still. Finnish work on 24,685 Holstein cows found hoof disorder heritabilities running from 0.02 for sole hemorrhage and heel horn erosion up to 0.13 for digital dermatitis, with feet and leg conformation traits landing between 0.10 and 0.19. Most genetic correlations between hoof disorders and conformation traits came in low and statistically indistinguishable from zero — meaning conformation is a proxy for hoof health, not a substitute.

Worth knowing how the composite was built. Both the Udder Composite and the Feet & Legs Composite carry a −0.20 weight on stature, documented by Holstein Association USA, so breeders can improve udders and legs “without making their cows taller.” Someone anticipated this exact trade decades ago and engineered against it inside the composites. The index doesn’t carry that logic upward into TPI.

The Fertility Correction Was the Dress Rehearsal

Here’s why this run should make you uneasy about more than feet and legs.

The August evaluation rewrote the fertility scale, and Fertility Index carried 69% of all TPI movement — roughly seven times the next-largest trait. Males in the top 10% for DPR dropped 9.08 PTA points. April-to-August male ranking correlation for DPR came in at 0.31, against 0.93 for Heifer Conception Rate. An April DPR ranking told you almost nothing about an August one.

That’s what it looks like when a component of the index gets recalibrated after two decades of use. Nothing about the old number was hidden — it was published, it moved the index, breeders used it. Then CDCB changed how DPR accounts for the voluntary waiting period, and TPI moved for all 12.6 million evaluated females at once: top-decile animals up, everything below them down.

Now apply that to legs. Feet and legs aren’t mismeasured — they’re barely visible, at −0.11 against TPI. Different failure, same exposure. The fertility correction arrived as a scale change breeders could see in a single run. A locomotion correction, if it comes, arrives as culls — three years after the mating decision, spread across a herd, with nothing in the index to have warned you.

Why Index Moves Punish Concentrated Pedigrees Hardest

We’ve watched this pattern before, and the numbers are on record.

Our five-year tracking of 401 elite genomic Holstein bulls from April 2020 through their December 2025 proofs found the retained bulls dropped an average of 42.5 TPI points — most of it from base changes and formula rewrites, not failed biology. Correlations between 2020 genomic predictions and 2025 proven results held strong on core traits: 0.81 for PTAT, 0.76 for fat, 0.71 for protein. The DNA didn’t change its mind. The formula did.

The bulls that crashed hardest shared a profile: over-predicted type stacked on thin functional traits. Homecoming lost 414 TPI points with PTAT dropping 0.87. Supercharge lost 396, including a 2.32-point PTAT collapse from +1.18 to −1.14. Sire lines heavy on Legacy and Heroic up top, with Delta on the maternal side, were over-represented in that group.

Concentration amplifies whatever the formula decides to reward or ignore. When 70 to 80 percent of a top-ten list traces to one sire, and they all sit weak in the same trait group, you don’t have seven independent bets. You have one bet placed seven times.

Fertility is where that already bites hardest. Annual genetic gain outruns inbreeding depression for every index trait except one — daughter pregnancy rate, running a net loss of 0.02 PTA units per year, on figures calculated before this run’s revision. Holstein heifers born in 2024 averaged 9.99% inbreeding per Lactanet Canada’s August 2025 update — a Canadian figure, not a U.S. one, and up from 9.61% the year before.

Looking for an Outcross

Concentration this deep makes clean pedigrees worth hunting, and the August lists offer one credible candidate near the top.

Genosource Jaco-ET sits at #8 GTPI at +3608 with 82% reliability, no daughters yet, and he was the biggest riser in the top ten at +128. Under the new 36-month rule holding daughter data out of DPR, CCR, and FSC, a bull like Jaco has no fertility daughter records feeding his numbers — so weight him on production confidence, not fertility confidence.

Whether he’s a genuine outcross for your herd depends on your own pedigree stack. That’s a check to run against the HAUSA database with your straw inventory in front of you, not something a proof sheet answers for you.

The honest read: with one sire behind 70 to 80 percent of the top ten, options up there are thin, and the ones that exist come with compromises — no daughters, limited status, or family overlap you’ll need to verify yourself.

Three Paths, and What Each One Costs

ApproachWorks best forWhat it costsWhere it backfires
Add FLC as its own spreadsheet column with a floorAny herd ranking primarily on TPI/NM$~1 hour of spreadsheet work; occasionally a lower GTPI pickSetting the floor at zero cuts most of the current top 10
Select on HCC for longevity-focused herdsHerds culling heavily on feet, legs, udder breakdownLower PTAT, lower show-ring ceilingExpecting fast results — 13% heritability is a 3-generation play
Place one deliberate outcross sire in the rotationHerds where a third+ of active straws trace to RipcordReal compromise — top candidates near GTPI top 10 also carry limitationsSwapping one concentration risk for another unverified one
  • Pull FLC as its own column and set a floor. Works for any herd ranking on index. Costs an hour of spreadsheet work and occasionally a lower GTPI on the bull you pick. Backfires if you set the floor at zero — you’ll cut most of the top ten and forfeit real production merit. Set it against your herd’s actual leg problem, not an arbitrary line.
  • Use HCC where longevity is the goal. Works for herds culling heavily on feet, legs, and udder breakdown rather than by choice. Costs you a lower PTAT and a lower show ceiling sometimes. Backfires if you expect speed — at 13% heritability on Feet & Legs this is a three-generation play, not a first-crop answer.
  • Place one deliberate outcross in the lineup. Works where a third or more of active straws trace to Ripcord. Costs real compromise, because the candidates near the top all carry one. Backfires if you swap one concentration for another, so verify the pedigree yourself before you commit.

The Action Checklist

Do this in the next 30 days:

  1. Put your April and August proofs side by side for every sire in your active lineup. Sort by TPI change. Flag any bull whose drop is more than double his cohort’s — that short list, not the full drop list, is where re-evaluation belongs.
  2. Add an FLC column to that same sheet. If you rank on TPI or NM$ alone, feet and legs are not currently in your decision. The index correlates −0.11 with FLC. Add the column or accept that you’re not selecting on it.
  3. Note sire and maternal grandsire on every straw. Where Ripcord appears, pull each bull’s individual FLC rather than judging by pedigree — the pattern is directional, the numbers are what you breed to.
  4. Cap single-sire exposure. No one bull on more than 12 to 15 percent of your matings, and build the team from at least eight unrelated sires. That’s the same discipline North Florida Holsteins applied when it capped how much any single bull could influence the herd.
  5. Locomotion-score your herd this quarter. Published prevalence spans 2.6% to 63.7% across studies, so the breed average tells you nothing about your barn — and the difference between 20% and 29.5% on 200 cows is roughly $6,400 a year.

Nobody built TPI to ignore feet and legs. It worked out that way — a composite weighting production, health, and fertility, with a trait group that washes out to −0.11 in the arithmetic. And nothing about that arithmetic changes on its own: at 13% heritability on Feet & Legs and 7% on Foot Angle, you can buy udder in one mating cycle and spend three generations paying it back. The 2029 version of this decision won’t arrive as a scale change you can see in a proof run. It arrives as culls and trim appointments. HCC is the first tool in a while that puts legs back in the conversation with real weight behind it. So before your next semen order, the question isn’t which bull ranks highest. It’s which column you’re adding to the spreadsheet first.

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