Your genetics supplier might not exist in 12 months. Here’s why
You recall the conversation with your genetics representative about two-year contracts at “special pricing”? Those field service delays that keep cropping up?
There’s a bigger story here, and honestly, it caught me off guard, too.
What farmers are discovering is that the global genetics market just shifted in ways we haven’t seen before. The Eurasian Economic Commission’s October report dropped a bombshell—Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan cut their breeding animal imports by 64% between 2022 and 2024. Russia alone boosted domestic poultry breeding production by 9.1 million head while cutting imports by 70%.
These aren’t temporary adjustments, folks. These markets are gone.
I’ve been digging into this with producers across different regions, and what I’ve found is… the ripple effects are way bigger than anyone expected.
The Numbers Tell a Wild Story
So here’s what’s interesting. Examining the National Association of Animal Breeders’ latest 2024 data, something doesn’t add up at first. Total U.S. bovine semen sales actually grew 4%, hitting nearly 69 million units. That’s a comeback after two years sliding backward.
But dig deeper—dairy exports reached 30.8 million units, up 5% from 2023, with a record value of $326 million according to NAAB’s March report. China’s still buying big, Brazil’s second, but companies are scrambling. They’re expanding into Western Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East… essentially anywhere to replace their Eastern European business.
And get this—gender-selected dairy semen jumped 18% to 9.9 million units, while beef-on-dairy hit 7.9 million units. Here’s the connection most folks are missing: The loss of volume in Eastern markets is forcing genetics companies to chase premium domestic sales, which—combined with record-high replacement costs—has created a perfect storm. We’re seeing semen price hikes and a surge in sexed semen demand because, let’s face it, producers can’t afford mistakes at these heifer prices.
The $4,000 Heifer Reality
I nearly spit out my coffee when I saw the July USDA numbers. Dairy replacements averaged $3,010 per head. You probably know this already, but back in April 2019? We paid $1,140. That’s nearly triple in six years.
But those are just averages. California and Minnesota auction reports from August show quality heifers bringing over $4,000. Four grand for a heifer that hasn’t even freshened yet!
Think about what that means for your breeding program… every straw matters now. Every conception counts. No wonder sexed semen sales are exploding, even with the premium pricing.
How Companies Are Scrambling
Let me share what’s happening with genetics companies—because as many of us have seen, their moves directly affect our breeding decisions.
Select Sires and STgen announced their intent to combine back in August 2023. They signed a letter of intent to create a new company that’ll combine production and R&D while maintaining independent sales networks. The companies stated that they’re working through regulatory approvals, although the current status is not entirely clear. What’s worth noting is this isn’t your typical business combination—it’s STgen’s sexed semen technology meeting Select’s distribution network.
Alta Genetics (URUS) made a significant investment in international markets. When URUS bought Genex in 2020, that was the canary in the coal mine. Industry observers suggest their international focus could be challenging with these market shifts—and that makes sense when you think about it. I’m hearing from Midwest producers that Alta service territories are already being restructured.
STgen built their business around sexed semen technology and premium pricing. They focused on innovation over volume, which… honestly, seems to be paying off now.
ABS Global—owned by Genus plc since ’99—has been pushing what they call an “industrial genetics model.” Basically, treating dairy more like their pig and poultry operations. But you and I both know dairy doesn’t work that way. We manage individual cows, not pens. With markets shrinking, their high-volume approach faces new challenges. Several California producers mentioned they’re seeing fewer ABS reps lately.
Your Monthly Genetics Bill Is About to Get Interesting
Here’s where global disruption hits your checkbook. Industry reports suggest premium Holstein semen prices have been climbing steadily. What cost in the mid-thirties to mid-forties per dose eighteen months ago? Many producers are now seeing upper forties to low fifties. Top genomic bulls? Some markets report prices of $60 to $75 per dose.
Add sexed semen—generally running another fifteen to twenty bucks per dose, depending on your supplier. A 500-cow operation utilizing enhanced genetics could easily see breeding costs increase by thousands of dollars annually. The exact amount depends on your program, but… we’re talking serious money here.
And if that Select-STgen combination goes through? The worldwide battle will become even more deadly.
What Other Regions Figured Out (That We Didn’t)
The Journal of Dairy Science has published fascinating research on Brazilian Gyr cattle, which maintain production when Holsteins struggle with heat stress. What’s encouraging is that Australia’s DataGene introduced genomic breeding values for heat tolerance back in 2017. They saw climate change coming and took action.
Now, I’m not saying dump your Holsteins—that’d be crazy. But while we chased production records, others developed solutions for real-world challenges. There’s something to learn there.
90-Day Action Plan
Weeks 1-2: Know Your Supplier
- Evaluate their technology position (proprietary vs. distribution)
- Check international exposure and market focus
- Assess financial stability indicators
Weeks 3-4: Do the Math
- Calculate true breeding costs, including replacements
- Factor in potential market changes
- Build scenarios for different pricing levels
Month 2: Find Your Tribe
- Contact neighbors about buying groups
- Explore state dairy association programs
- Pool for 10,000+ dose volume discounts
Month 2-3: Lock It Down (Carefully)
- Negotiate while companies need cash flow
- Prioritize technology and stability over price
- Consider 18-36 month contracts
Month 3: Tech Up
- Evaluate automated heat detection (18-24 month ROI)
- Reduce dependence on external service
- Build on-farm breeding capability
Regional Reality Check
This hits different depending on where you farm:
Wisconsin, California, Pennsylvania—you’ve got genetics infrastructure. Service will probably stay decent. These companies can’t afford to abandon major dairy regions.
Expansion areas, remote locations—brace yourself. Changes often show up there first. If service has always been marginal… well, time for Plan B.
Southern operations—here’s the silver lining. This disruption might accelerate heat tolerance research you’ve needed for years. I’m hearing increased interest in adapted genetics from producers dealing with heat stress, especially in Texas and Florida.
The Bottom Line
The genetics market we’ve known for decades just shifted fundamentally. That’s not pessimism—it’s reality. We’re watching the restructuring of how genetics gets developed, priced, and delivered. The Select-STgen combination, if it is approved, is likely just the beginning.
But here’s what thirty years in this industry taught me—dairy farmers adapt better than anyone when we understand what’s happening. And now you do.
Those waiting for “normal” to return? They’ll be waiting a long time. Those who recognize this shift and position accordingly? They’ll look back at this moment as when they secured a competitive advantage.
Your breeding decisions over the next few months matter more than usual. Not just which bulls you use, but which companies you bet your future on.
What you do with this information… that’s your call. But at least now you’re making it with eyes wide open.
Resources & Next Steps
Keep Learning
You’ll find NAAB market statistics and annual reports at naab-css.org, which is great for tracking trends. For those interested in heat tolerance research, the Journal of Dairy Science papers are a valuable resource.
Get Connected
Your state Extension dairy specialist offers free genetics strategy consultations—seriously, use them. They’re a great resource. Consider joining or forming a buying group through your state dairy association. Many Midwest producers report good results with this approach. Keep an eye on the Select-STgen combination for regulatory updates… it could change everything. And those ROI calculators at Penn State and Wisconsin Extension websites? They’re actually pretty helpful for running scenarios.
Share What You’re Seeing
The industry needs producers talking about these changes. Your insights could help another farm navigate this disruption. Connect with your regional dairy organizations or reach out through industry forums. We’re all in this together, after all.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Your breeding program costs could increase by $12,000 annually starting in January.
- Your genetics supplier might not exist in 2026—Alta’s restructuring, Select needs a merger to survive, ABS model failing
- You have 90 days to act before January price explosions: smart producers locking contracts and forming buying groups NOW
- The $100M question: Russia/China stopped buying genetics—guess who’s paying to fill that hole? (Hint: Check your mirror)
- Your action plan: Evaluate supplier stability TODAY, join buying group THIS WEEK, lock contract THIS MONTH
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Your genetics rep has bad news they won’t share until January: Russia and five other nations stopped buying American genetics, creating a $100 million hole that YOU’RE filling through higher prices. With heifers at $3,010 (triple 2019) and beef and dairy calves at record prices, your breeding costs could jump $12,000 annually—and that’s before the Select-STgen merger reduces competition further. Alta’s restructuring after international losses, ABS is hemorrhaging market share, and three suppliers might not exist by 2026. Wisconsin producers pooling 10,000-dose orders are locking 15% discounts NOW, while those waiting will pay premium prices to fewer suppliers. Your 90-day action window: evaluate supplier stability, join buying groups, and lock contracts before this hidden disruption becomes your financial crisis.
Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.
Learn More:
- Beef-on-Dairy: Real Talk on Turning Calves into Serious Profit – This guide reveals how to implement the strategic shift mentioned in the main article, providing a practical playbook for using sexed semen on top genetics and beef on the rest. Learn the financial sweet spot and how to net an extra $90,000 annually by transforming calf revenue.
- Genetic Gatekeepers: The High-Stakes Gamble of Dairy’s Elite Bloodlines – Extends the market consolidation analysis by exposing the hidden $1 billion inbreeding tax caused by narrow genetics and restrictive contracts among the five major suppliers. It provides strategies for building genetic independence and reducing the $23 per cow loss from rising inbreeding.
- The Digital Dairy: How Precision Agriculture is Redefining Farm Profitability – This article provides a strategic look at how technology mitigates market risk, detailing the ROI of precision agriculture and automated systems. It breaks down how data-driven tools, including health monitoring and feed efficiency, drive gains that buffer against the cost hikes discussed in the main piece.
Join the Revolution!
Join the Revolution!Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Weekly for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.
