milk pricing

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Archive for milk pricing

Butter Pays Triple: Fonterra’s $75M Investment Proves Components Are Your Future

Tuesday, October 28th, 2025

Fonterra commits $75M to butter while powder markets collapse 39%. Smart producers already pivoting: 10-15% profit gains documented.

Executive Summary: Progressive dairy farms are adding $32,000-87,000 annually by switching from volume to component focus—and Fonterra’s $75 million butter expansion validates their strategy. Butter commands $7,000 per tonne while powder sits at $2,550, a gap that’s widening as Chinese powder demand drops 39% and global butterfat markets stay strong. Smart farms are already moving: investing $10-20 per cow per month in targeted nutrition generates returns of $25-85 within 60-90 days. The window for action is closing—$8 billion in new North American butter and cheese capacity will come online by 2027, and farmers positioned to supply components will capture those premiums, while others scramble to adapt. This analysis provides your roadmap: immediate nutrition optimization, strategic processor positioning within 18 months, and staged genetic transitions starting with your bottom third. The verdict from global markets to Wisconsin farms is unanimous: component density drives profit, volume doesn’t.

The global dairy industry is experiencing a fundamental shift in value creation—from volume to components—and farmers who recognize this transition early will position themselves for success in the emerging market structure

You know, when Fonterra announced their NZ$75 million investment to double butter production capacity at the Clandeboye facility in Canterbury, I found myself thinking about what this really means for dairy farmers like us. This goes beyond just another infrastructure upgrade—it represents a fundamental shift in how our industry values milk.

What caught my eye about the timing is this: Global Dairy Trade auctions through October 2025 have consistently shown butter trading between $6,600 and $7,000 per tonne, while skim milk powder sits around $2,550. We’re talking nearly triple the value here. And that price differential isn’t just a temporary market quirk—it reflects something deeper happening across the entire dairy value chain.

What particularly caught my attention was Fonterra’s simultaneous decision to divest their consumer brands to Lactalis for $4.22 billion while expanding butter capacity. On the surface, these moves might seem contradictory, right? But dig deeper, and a coherent strategy emerges—one that dairy farmers everywhere should understand.

***Butter commands nearly triple the price of powder, rewriting the playbook for component-focused production and dismissing old volume-based strategies forever.***

Understanding the Strategic Shift Behind the Investment

Miles Hurrell, Fonterra’s CEO, framed this investment as increasing production of high-value products while improving their product mix. The numbers behind that statement tell a compelling story. Their ingredients channel, which processes 80% of their milk solids, generated $17.4 billion in their most recent fiscal year. Consumer products? Just $3.3 billion.

That disparity explains why processors globally are refocusing on B2B ingredients rather than consumer brands. It’s a strategic shift that reflects where value creation actually happens in modern dairy markets.

Looking at processing flexibility in the Pacific region, what’s remarkable about New Zealand’s cream plants is their operational agility. They can shift substantial portions of milkfat between anhydrous milk fat and butter production based on market signals. This allows processors to capture whatever premium the market’s offering at any given time.

The global supply picture adds another layer to this story. According to the European Commission’s October 2025 dairy market observatory, European milk production continues growing despite relatively weak farmgate prices. USDA’s Dairy Market News shows U.S. dairy herds have expanded by 2.1% in recent months. DairyNZ confirms New Zealand’s having another strong production season with August 2025 collections up 8.3% year-over-year.

So we’ve got milk oversupply, yet butter prices remain remarkably resilient while powder markets struggle. There’s something structural happening here, and it’s worth paying attention to.

What This Means for Component-Focused Production

This brings us to what really matters for farmers: How do these market dynamics translate to on-farm decisions?

Metric	Jersey/Crossbred	Holstein	Advantage
Butterfat Content	4.3-4.5%	3.6%	+0.7-0.9% (Jersey)
Protein Content	3.6-3.8%	3.2%	+0.4-0.6% (Jersey)
Component Efficiency	Superior	Standard	Jersey
Economic Returns vs Holstein	+10-15%	Baseline	Jersey
Feed Efficiency	Improved	Standard	Jersey
Reproductive Performance	Fewer Days Open	Baseline	Jersey

Research from extension services at Wisconsin, Cornell, and Penn State consistently shows that component efficiency drives profitability more effectively than pure volume production. And the data is compelling. Farms implementing Jersey crossbreeding programs typically see economic returns increase by 10-15% compared to pure Holstein operations—that’s according to multi-year studies in the Journal of Dairy Science. Component levels often reach 4.3-4.5% butterfat and 3.6-3.8% protein, compared to Holstein averages around 3.6% and 3.2% respectively.

What’s encouraging is the improvement in feed efficiency and reproductive performance that comes along with these component gains. Many producers report their crossbred cows show fewer days open and require less intervention during the transition period—you probably know someone who’s seen similar results.

Dr. Randy Shaver from Wisconsin-Madison’s dairy science department documented fascinating case studies in which farms optimizing amino acid nutrition and removing polyunsaturated fat sources saw butterfat increase from around 3.4% to over 4% within weeks. When that translates to several dollars more per hundredweight… well, that’s meaningful money when you’re shipping milk every day, all year long.

I’ve noticed a generational shift happening, too. Younger farmers entering the industry aren’t as attached to the traditional “fill the tank” mentality. They’re looking at component efficiency from day one, asking different questions about genetics, nutrition, and marketing strategies. It’s refreshing, honestly.

The Powder Market Reality Driving Change

***China’s powder demand has fallen off a cliff—erasing decades of growth and leaving billions in powder-drying assets stranded.***

So why is this shift toward butterfat happening now? The answer lies partly in what’s happening to global powder markets.

Global Dairy Trade auctions in September and October 2025 show both skim milk powder and whole milk powder trading well below historical averages. Chinese imports—which drove powder demand for nearly two decades—remain significantly depressed. China Customs Administration data from August 2025 shows a 39% year-over-year decline. That’s not a blip; that’s a trend.

The situation in China deserves particular attention. While their domestic milk production has been declining (which, in theory, should support imports), the China Dairy Industry Association’s September 2025 report indicates that many Chinese dairy farms are operating at a loss, with farmgate prices hitting multi-year lows. This suggests structural challenges that won’t resolve quickly.

What we’re witnessing is potentially billions of dollars in powder-drying capacity built for a market dynamic that no longer exists. Rabobank’s Q3 2025 dairy quarterly describes these as potential “stranded assets”—infrastructure investments that may never generate expected returns. That’s a sobering thought for processors heavily invested in powder.

Component Optimization: A Practical Framework

For producers considering this transition, here’s what progressive operations are focusing on:

✓ Baseline assessment: Review component tests from the past 6 months to understand where you’re starting
✓ Efficiency calculation: Measure total fat and protein pounds against dry matter intake
✓ Market exploration: Request quotes from 2-3 processors to understand regional pricing dynamics
✓ Nutrition refinement: Work with your nutritionist on amino acid balancing strategies
✓ Fat supplementation: Consider palmitic acid products at 1.5-2% of diet dry matter
✓ Interference removal: Identify and eliminate high PUFA sources that suppress butterfat synthesis
✓ Progress monitoring: Track component response weekly during the initial transition month

Practical Steps for Farmers: The 18-Month Transition Strategy

Based on conversations with producers who’ve successfully navigated this shift, along with extension recommendations, a three-phase approach seems most practical.

Immediate Actions (Next 60-90 Days)

Nutrition optimization offers the fastest path to capturing component premiums. University dairy specialists consistently recommend focusing on amino acid profiles in metabolizable protein, incorporating appropriate fat supplements, and eliminating factors that suppress butterfat synthesis.

The economics are encouraging here. Research from land-grant universities, including Michigan State and the University of Minnesota, suggests that investing $10-20 per cow per month in targeted nutrition typically yields returns of $25-85. Even if your current processor doesn’t fully reward components today, you’re still capturing feed efficiency gains and often seeing reproductive benefits that improve overall herd health.

One practical approach: Start by reviewing your current ration with fresh eyes. Many farms discover they’re feeding ingredients that actively suppress butterfat—things that made sense when volume was king, but work against component optimization. It’s surprising what you might find.

Short-Term Strategy (6-18 Months)

This development suggests interesting market dynamics ahead. With processors across North America investing billions in new capacity—the International Dairy Foods Association reports over $8 billion in announced projects through 2026—they’ll need a quality milk supply to fill that infrastructure.

For U.S. producers operating outside supply management, this creates direct opportunities. I recently heard from a producer in Pennsylvania who documented her component levels and quality metrics over several months, then approached three processors for competitive quotes. When her existing buyer realized she had genuine alternatives offering 50 cents more per hundredweight, they suddenly found room to improve their pricing structure. Funny how that works.

The Canadian experience offers different lessons. While producers there can’t negotiate directly with processors—they sell to provincial milk marketing boards, which allocate milk—their transparent pricing system, administered by the Canadian Dairy Commission, clearly rewards components. October 2025 butterfat prices are $11.84 per kilogram, versus $8.31 for protein. This regulated system has driven on-farm decisions toward component optimization for years, since that’s how farmers maximize returns within the supply management framework. Canadian producers have focused intensively on genetics and nutrition to optimize components because that’s their only lever for improving revenue—they can’t negotiate volume or switch buyers.

U.S. producers following the June 2025 Federal Milk Marketing Order reforms have more flexibility but less pricing transparency. The principle of demanding clear component pricing from cooperatives remains valid for those who can negotiate or explore alternatives.

Long-Term Positioning (18+ Months)

Genetic decisions made today will determine your component profile when new processing capacity comes online in 2028-2030. Extension geneticists generally recommend starting conservatively—perhaps with your bottom third of cows for initial crossbreeding trials.

This staged approach allows you to evaluate results while maintaining operational flexibility. If market signals remain positive by mid-2026, you can expand the program. The timeline matters here because first-cross heifers bred today won’t enter your milking string for about 24 months.

Understanding Regional Variations

Different regions are adapting to this component-focused reality in distinct ways, and there’s something to learn from each approach.

New Zealand demonstrates that the model works even with smaller herd sizes—their average herd size remains under 500 cows, according to DairyNZ’s 2024-25 statistics. Their payment system has been optimized for milk solids rather than volume for years, creating remarkable efficiency. What’s particularly noteworthy is that, as Fonterra’s market share has declined to 77.8% according to the New Zealand Commerce Commission’s September 2025 report, and competitors have offered attractive component-focused pricing, it’s actually forced all processors to be more responsive to farmer needs.

In the United States, the Federal Milk Marketing Order reforms implemented in June 2025—the first major update since 2008—formally recognized that butterfat now accounts for 58% of milk check income, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. Yet many cooperative payment systems haven’t fully adjusted to this reality, creating opportunities for producers willing to negotiate or explore alternatives.

California producers face unique challenges with transportation distances and processor consolidation, but they’re also seeing some of the strongest component premiums in the country. The California Department of Food and Agriculture’s September 2025 data shows component premiums averaging $0.85 per hundredweight above the state average. That adds up quickly.

The Northeast presents another interesting case. Smaller farms there are finding that component optimization allows them to remain competitive despite scale disadvantages. When you’re shipping high-component milk, processor transportation costs become more manageable on a solids basis—that’s just math working in your favor.

***Component optimization delivers impressive profit across all herd sizes, proving quality trumps scale in the new dairy order.***

The Risks We Should Monitor—And How to Prepare

Now, while the component-focused future seems clear, several risks deserve attention along with strategies to address them.

China’s economic trajectory remains the biggest wildcard. If their dairy demand remains weak for several more years, global export markets will come under pressure. But what’s encouraging is butter’s diverse demand base—spanning Asia, the Middle East, and developed markets—provides more resilience than powder’s historically China-dependent structure. Smart farms are diversifying their risk by not betting everything on export-dependent processors.

Precision fermentation technology represents a longer-term consideration. Companies like Yali Bio and Melt & Marble are developing fermented dairy fats, with some targeting commercial launches in 2026, according to their August 2025 corporate announcements. While price parity is likely 5-10 years away, according to the Good Food Institute’s September 2025 analysis, this technology could eventually compete for commodity ingredient applications. The best defense? Focus on premium quality that commands loyalty beyond pure commodity competition.

The impact of GLP-1 weight-loss medications on dairy consumption patterns is another emerging factor. Research in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics from July 2025 indicates households using these medications reduce butter consumption by approximately 6%, primarily in retail channels rather than foodservice. Current adoption sits at 3.2% of the U.S. population according to CDC data from August 2025, though Morgan Stanley projects potential growth to 7-9% by 2035. It’s worth monitoring, but foodservice demand remains more stable.

Perspectives from Progressive Operations

Extension case studies from farms that have successfully transitioned offer valuable insights. The University of Wisconsin-Madison’s August 2025 extension bulletin documented Wisconsin farms reporting economic improvements ranging from $32,000 to $87,000 annually for 500-cow operations. The variation depends largely on their starting point and local market dynamics, but the direction is consistently positive.

The common thread among successful transitions? Methodical tracking of component efficiency—measuring pounds of fat and protein against pounds of dry matter intake. This metric, more than any other, determines economic sustainability in a component-valued market.

International examples provide additional perspective. Brazilian operations dealing with heat stress have found Jersey genetics particularly valuable. Embrapa Dairy Cattle’s 2025 annual report shows 12-15% improvement in component efficiency under tropical conditions—that’s significant when you’re battling heat and humidity. Australian producers recovering from recent industry challenges are focusing intensively on specialty cheese and butterfat products for Asian markets, as documented in Dairy Australia’s September 2025 market analysis. These diverse experiences suggest the component-focused approach adapts well across different production environments.

Essential Lessons for Dairy Farmers

After examining the data, market trends, and producer experiences, several principles emerge clearly.

Component optimization is transitioning from competitive advantage to operational necessity. The most successful farms won’t necessarily be the largest, but those producing high-component milk at competitive costs while maintaining operational flexibility.

Processing flexibility matters tremendously. Fonterra’s ability to shift between butter, AMF, and cream products based on market signals provides the resilience that single-product strategies can’t match. We should seek similar flexibility in our own operations.

Information asymmetry remains expensive but addressable. Farms that invest modestly in market intelligence and professional advisory services often identify pricing opportunities worth tens of thousands of dollars annually. The key is translating that information into actionable operational changes.

The transition period through 2027 creates a particular opportunity. As new processing capacity comes online, farmers who’ve already positioned for component production will be ready to capture emerging premiums.

Looking Forward: Your Strategic Path

The dairy industry stands at a genuine inflection point. Processing infrastructure is shifting toward butterfat-intensive products. Payment systems are gradually recognizing the value of components. Technology continues creating both opportunities and challenges for traditional dairy farming.

Fonterra’s $75 million investment signals confidence that butterfat will maintain its premium status despite powder market challenges. They’re betting this trend continues for at least the next decade. Whether they’re right depends on multiple variables—economic recovery in key markets, technology advancement rates, and evolving consumer preferences.

What seems certain is that measuring dairy success purely by tank volume is becoming increasingly obsolete. As one thoughtful producer recently observed at the World Dairy Expo: “My grandfather measured success by how full the bulk tank was. I measure it by what’s in it. Same tank, completely different business.”

The capital flowing into Clandeboye’s butter expansion represents Fonterra’s vision for dairy’s future. The decisions each of us makes about breeding, feeding, and marketing our milk will determine who captures the value that investment creates.

For an industry with deep traditions and generational farming operations, change comes slowly. Yet the message from New Zealand—and increasingly from progressive farms worldwide—deserves serious consideration. The future of profitable dairy farming isn’t just about filling the tank anymore. It’s fundamentally about what’s in it.

The producers who’ve already made this shift aren’t looking backward. They’re focused on optimizing components, improving efficiency, and building sustainable operations for the next generation. They’re positioning their farms to thrive in this new reality, not just survive it.

And honestly? They’re wondering why it took the rest of us so long to recognize what they figured out years ago.

The path forward is clear for those willing to see it. The only question is whether you’ll be among the farmers leading this transition—or playing catch-up when the market forces your hand.

Key Takeaways:

The Opportunity: Butterfat pays 3X powder ($7,000 vs $2,550/tonne) and the gap’s widening as Chinese powder demand craters 39%
The Payoff: Component-focused farms are banking $32,000-87,000 extra annually—proven across 500-cow Wisconsin operations to small Northeast herds
The Fast Win: Invest $10-20 per cow monthly in amino acid nutrition, capture $25-85 returns within 60 days (400% ROI)
The Deadline: $8 billion in new butter/cheese processing capacity comes online by 2027—position now or watch others lock in your premiums
Your Action Plan: Start Monday with nutrition optimization, document components for processor leverage, breed the bottom 30% to Jersey genetics this cycle

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

The Art of Feeding for Components: Beyond the Basics – This article provides advanced nutritional strategies for maximizing butterfat and protein. It reveals specific methods for balancing fatty acids and improving rumen health, allowing you to turn the market signals discussed in our main feature into tangible gains in your bulk tank.
Navigating the New FMMO Landscape: What Producers Need to Know Now – While our feature covers the global market shift, this analysis drills down into the recent FMMO reforms. It provides critical insights for understanding your milk check and leveraging new pricing realities to negotiate more effectively with your processor.
Genomic Testing Isn’t Just for the Elite Sires Anymore – To accelerate the genetic progress mentioned in our 18+ month strategy, this piece demonstrates how to use affordable genomic testing on your commercial heifers. Learn how to make faster, data-driven breeding decisions to boost component traits across your entire herd.

Join the Revolution!

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Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : Dairy Farm Profitability, dairy genetics, Dairy Nutrition, Feed Efficiency, Global Dairy Trends, milk components, milk pricing

Who Speaks for Your Milk Check? The Push to Reform Dairy’s Voting Power

Saturday, October 25th, 2025

Not every deduction on a milk check is math—some are politics. Here’s how U.S. farmers lost $337 million without casting a single vote

Executive Summary: In 2025, U.S. dairy farmers lost $337 million in just three months following FMMO reforms that increased processor make allowances using voluntary, unverified cost data. The change exposed a fundamental flaw: most producers never voted on the rule that reduced their pay. The American Farm Bureau Federation is now leading a campaign for modified bloc voting, restoring producers’ right to vote independently rather than through cooperative boards. At the same time, pressure is growing for USDA audits of processor costs and itemized cooperative milk checks, ensuring transparency and accountability from plant to producer. A similar structure in Canada illustrates the power of individual voice—where direct farmer ownership and votes drive protective policy outcomes. Together, these reforms mark a turning point toward verified data, fair pay, and representation that aligns with the farmers doing the milking.

You know that feeling when the milk check comes and something doesn’t line up. The herd’s healthy, butterfat performance is steady, feed costs haven’t spiked—but the final number is off. That’s been a common story across farms this year.

Earlier this fall, both the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) and the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) confirmed what many suspected. The most recent Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) pricing reforms shifted about $337 million from farmers to processors in just three months.

What’s striking isn’t just the number—it’s how the decision happened. Most producers never saw a ballot. And that missing vote might be the most expensive one they never got to cast.

How a Technical Rule Became a Real Pay Cut

***Make allowances surged 32-48% in June 2025 based on unverified processor data—the highest jumps in dry whey and cheese directly slashed what farmers received per hundredweight***

Here’s what set this off. In June, USDA raised make allowances—the assumed cost of processing milk into dairy products—by 25 to 43 percent. The reasoning was simple enough: labor, packaging, and energy costs have risen since the last review in 2008.

Here’s the part that farmers are still talking about. Those numbers came from voluntary processor surveys and not from audited financials. By law, USDA still lacks the authority to require processors to open their books under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937.

As AFBF dairy economist Danny Munch explained during the organization’s fall dairy policy update,

“We’re basing a national pay system on unverified numbers, and the only side that benefits is the one submitting the data.”

USDA’s Pool Settlement Reports show how fast that imbalance added up: $64 million in the Upper Midwest, $62 million in the Northeast, and $55 million in California.

For a 150-cow herd shipping about 24,000 hundredweight a year, that’s about $18,000 to $20,000 gone—roughly equivalent to this year’s surge in energy costs, or a major herd health outlay.

***Regional distribution of the $337 million in FMMO losses reveals that smaller regions collectively bore nearly half the burden, intensifying the impact on individual farms***

Regional Impact Summary (June–September 2025)

Upper Midwest: –$64 million
Northeast: –$62 million
California: –$55 million
(Source: USDA AMS, Q3 2025 Pool Data)

Who Cast the Vote That Changed It?

Aspect	Current Bloc Voting	Modified Bloc Voting (AFBF Proposal)
Who Controls Your Vote?	Cooperative board decides for all members	YOU decide—opt in or vote independently
Member Choice	None—vote cast automatically	Full choice: authorize co-op or vote direct
Transparency Level	Low: No individual vote tracking	High: Individual votes counted
Conflict of Interest	HIGH: Co-ops process AND vote	LOW: Direct farmer control
Individual Accountability	None—members never see ballot	Full—every producer has voice

That question gets to the heart of a deeper issue. When FMMO proposals go out for a referendum, producers are supposed to decide. But under the current system, most never touch a ballot.

That’s because cooperatives cast bloc votes representing all their members. The idea was originally intended to save administrative time in the 1940s, when local co-ops marketed milk from small family dairies.

Fast forward 80 years. Dairy Farmers of America, Land O’ Lakes, and California Dairies Inc. now handle more than 60 percent of the nation’s milk, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service (2024). Those organizations don’t just market milk—they process it. When processing margins rise, they gain on one side while the member pay price shrinks on the other.

That’s why AFBF, joined by several state-level farm bureaus, is pressing for modified bloc voting.

Under this approach, co-ops could still submit bloc votes, but only for members who authorize them. Others could opt out and cast their own ballots directly. It’s a small procedural shift with big implications for fairness.

As Munch told producers in Wisconsin, “If your paycheck depends on it, you should get to decide how it’s structured.”

Why Voting Reform Comes First

Some producers have asked why start with voting rights rather than mandatory audits or cost-verification reforms? It’s a logical question—but one with a simple answer.

Every major FMMO change still requires a producer vote to pass. If co-ops continue controlling those votes, the same imbalances in representation will persist—even with better data. Modified voting gives individuals a voice before the next cost survey or order amendment lands on the table.

Think of it this way: fair data means knowing the numbers are right; fair voting means knowing your opinion counts before the next decimal gets moved.

The Transparency Gap That Shows Up Every Month

For most of us, the problem isn’t hidden in Washington—it’s sitting right on the milk check.

Private processors are required to list detail on component prices, deductions, and the Producer Price Differential (PPD). Cooperatives, though, are exempt. Since they’re considered farmer-owned, they aren’t required to disclose the same payment details.

That might sound routine, but it creates an information gap. A University of Wisconsin Extension report (2024) found that 70 percent of cooperative pay statements lacked full explanations for deductions over $0.25 per hundredweight. Terms like “market adjustment” or “balancing charge” were often used without further specification.

As Mark Stevenson, emeritus policy specialist at UW–Madison, put it, “You can’t manage what you can’t measure.”

Plenty of producers can relate. Even herds with solid butterfat and protein trends are seeing unexplained adjustments that chip away at gross pay. That lack of clarity feeds the same frustration driving the broader voting reform effort: farmers want transparency, not theory.

Looking North: What Canadian Quotas Tell Us About Voice

Canada’s dairy producers own individual quotas and cast direct votes that shape trade policy; U.S. farmers are fighting to regain that same power through modified bloc voting and mandatory processor audits

It’s worth pausing to look north for perspective. Canada operates under a supply management system that balances domestic production and demand through quotas. Each farmer owns a quota, currently worth about CA $30,000 per cow (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2025), and that ownership translates directly into control.

In 2017, Canadian dairy farmers organized a significant voter push within the Conservative Party, ultimately flipping a leadership contest by less than 1%. This year, the Canadian Parliament passed Bill C‑202, which makes it illegal for ministers to negotiate away dairy protections in trade deals.

The U.S. doesn’t have a quota system, and few producers would want one. But here’s the takeaway: when farmers hold direct, non-negotiable voting authority, policy outcomes tend to protect producers instead of eroding them.

Where These Reforms Stand Now

For the first time in years, the groundwork for reform is visible.

A provision in the 2025 Farm Appropriations Act now gives USDA AMS the authority to conduct audited processor cost surveys. The agency plans to begin that process in 2027, replacing voluntary surveys with verifiable data collection.

Meanwhile, new proposals are emerging to standardize cooperative milk-payment statements so co-op members receive the same level of itemized transparency as proprietary producers.

And finally, AFBF’s modified bloc voting proposal continues building bipartisan traction, with several state delegations already urging USDA to schedule a hearing for 2026.

These are all incremental steps—but together, they form the backbone of a more accountable system.

What It Means for Different Dairies

Whether you milk 80 cows in New York’s Finger Lakes or 8,000 in a California dry lot, clarity is good business. Verified cost surveys stabilize Class III and IV price forecasts. Transparency builds trust and simplifies planning.

Cornell University’s Dairy Markets Research Program (2024) notes that “information symmetry improves efficiency and stability at every scale.” In simpler terms, fair data and fair governance don’t pick winners—they lift the whole market.

Co-ops That Are Already Leading

Some cooperatives aren’t waiting for regulation to catch up. Rolling Hills Dairy Cooperative in Wisconsin already provides members with detailed monthly pool and freight summaries through an online portal. Select Milk Producersin Texas publishes audited hauling and balancing charges so members can see exactly what the deductions mean.

Rolling Hills general manager Tom Larkin says the results were immediate: “Once members could see where their money went, trust followed. Transparency lined us up on the same side again.”

That kind of leadership shows reform doesn’t have to start in Washington—it can begin wherever farmers demand a clearer deal.

Five Things Producers Can Do Now

Compare your check. Match component prices to your federal order’s monthly reports; the differences may surprise you.
Ask for documentation. Request written breakdowns for deductions labeled “market adjustment” or “balancing.”
Collaborate. Compare notes with neighboring farms—shared data reveals patterns.
Engage early. Follow your state Farm Bureau updates and dairy policy hearings.
Exercise your vote. Whether under current co-op structures or future modified voting, make sure your ballot represents your voice.

The Bottom Line

After covering dairy policy for years—and spending plenty of time around farmers who live it—I’ve noticed that most producers can handle market volatility and feed swings. What they can’t handle is opacity.

The call for reform isn’t rebellion; it’s about modernizing a system that no longer reflects how milk is marketed or how producers define ownership.

If democracy belongs anywhere, it’s in the milk check. Because when producers see the numbers, cast their own votes, and know where their dollars go, trust stops being a slogan—it becomes part of doing business.

Key Takeaways:

$337 million disappeared from producers’ milk checks in three months following FMMO reforms based on voluntary processor cost data that USDA could not verify.
Most farmers never voted on the rules that reduced their income, because cooperatives cast bloc votes on behalf of all members—often blending farmer and processor interests.
AFBF’s proposed modified bloc voting system would restore the right for every producer to cast an individual ballot, bringing direct democracy back into milk pricing.
Mandatory processor cost audits and itemized co-op pay statements are now gaining traction, opening the door to verified data, clear deductions, and accountable pay.
Transparency isn’t anti-cooperative—it’s pro-farmer. As seen in Canada’s producer-driven system, ownership and voice together equal stability and fair value for milk.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Maximizing Your Milk Check: A Producer’s Guide to Component Pricing – While the main article details external pricing challenges, this guide provides actionable strategies for boosting the factors you can control. It reveals methods for optimizing herd nutrition and genetics to increase butterfat and protein, directly improving your bottom line.
Navigating the Waves: Understanding and Managing Milk Price Volatility – This article expands on the financial uncertainty caused by policy flaws by offering a strategic roadmap for risk management. It demonstrates how to use tools like futures, options, and insurance to build a more resilient business model against market shocks.
Data-Driven Dairying: How On-Farm Analytics Are Creating a Clearer Financial Picture – To combat the lack of transparency from processors, this piece explores how technology empowers producers. It provides insight into using on-farm data systems to track key performance indicators, verify inputs, and create your own undeniable proof of performance.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : dairy cooperatives, dairy profitability, farm income, FMMO reform, milk check transparency, milk pricing

EXPOSED: The $29.2 Billion Dairy Empire That Just Bought Your Future – How Lactalis Executed the Most Dangerous Corporate Power Grab in Agricultural History While Everyone Celebrated

Saturday, September 20th, 2025

$29.2B dairy empire bought your breeding future while you celebrated – 384 court violations expose the scam

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While dairy farmers celebrated Fonterra’s NZ$3.845 billion sale as good news, French billionaire Emmanuel Besnier executed the most sophisticated agricultural power grab in modern history. Here’s what we discovered: Lactalis didn’t just buy processing plants—they bought control over genetic data from the world’s most advanced herds, positioning themselves to manipulate which genetics get promoted industry-wide. Australian courts documented 384 systematic contract violations designed to silence farmer criticism and eliminate market alternatives, yet regulators approved giving this company even more power. The brutal math shows operations over 2,000 cows now produce milk $10 cheaper per hundredweight than family farms, while we’ve lost 15,221 dairy operations in just five years—eight farms closing every single day. Genetic evaluation systems now prioritize processor efficiency over farm profitability, meaning you’re unknowingly breeding cattle that benefit their margins, not yours. This consolidation represents a fundamental shift from farming as an independent business to corporate employment disguised as “partnerships.” The window for collective resistance is closing faster than most producers realize—and that’s exactly what they’re counting on.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Contract Audit Defense: Pull every processor agreement from the last five years and document non-disparagement clauses, data ownership provisions, and unilateral termination rights that eliminate your bargaining power—this becomes your legal evidence file when exploitation escalates
Genetic Data Protection: Maintain independent production records using software you control, export all historical data from processor-connected systems before access gets restricted, and work with multiple AI organizations to prevent single-supplier dependency that hands breeding control to your milk buyer
Buyer Diversification Strategy: Build a quarterly-updated matrix of every processor within hauling distance, including contract terms, quality premiums, and genetic data policies—never become dependent on single-processor relationships that trap you in exploitative arrangements
Value-Added Premium Capture: Corporate consolidation creates direct-sale opportunities, but requires a realistic assessment of barriers, including FDA compliance, customer relationship building, and marketing skill development, which most traditional producers lack
Collective Action Timeline: Individual defense strategies buy time and negotiating position, but agriculture’s survival as an independent enterprise depends on producer-owned processing infrastructure and independent genetic evaluation systems being built faster than corporate consolidation eliminates alternatives

dairy farm profitability, milk pricing, dairy farm consolidation, genetic data ownership, dairy industry trends

You know, I’ve been covering consolidation for over three decades, and this Lactalis-Fonterra deal…man, it keeps me up nights thinking about what just happened.

While farmers were celebrating that NZ$3.845 billion changing hands—and trust me, it sounded real good when you first heard it—French billionaire Emmanuel Besnier just pulled off the most sophisticated agricultural land grab I’ve witnessed in my career. Most producers? They still don’t realize what they lost.

This isn’t consolidation anymore. It’s genetic colonialism, plain and simple.

The $29.2 Billion Shadow Empire Controlling Your Breeding Decisions

*Through the Fonterra acquisition, one French billionaire now controls processing and distribution across the world’s fastest-growing dairy markets.*

Emmanuel Besnier. Ever heard of him?

Course not. That’s exactly how he wants it.

Forbes lists this guy at $29.2 billion—can you even wrap your head around that number? Operates Lactalis, pulling in over $30 billion annually according to their financial reports, while maintaining almost zero public presence. I’ve never seen him speak at World Dairy Expo. Never seen him shake hands at any trade show I’ve covered in thirty years. Just pure, calculated market control from behind the scenes.

The Fonterra acquisition gives one French family control over sixteen manufacturing facilities stretching from Queensland clear to Saudi Arabia, plus twenty-seven third-party relationships across Southeast Asia. But what really gets me isn’t the processing capacity.

It’s the genetic data they just bought.

When you’re processing milk from genetically advanced herds—and New Zealand’s got some of the best genetics on the planet, no question about that—you’re not just buying cheese brands. You’re buying the performance validation that determines which genetics get promoted industry-wide.

Every inline milk meter reading. Every component test. Every milking duration measurement.

They’re literally using your cows’ data to control your breeding choices. And most guys don’t even realize it’s happening.

The Contract Manipulation That Australian Courts Actually Documented

Violation Category	Number of Breaches	Impact on Farmers	Court Finding
Public Denigration Clauses	156	Silenced criticism	“Chilling effect”
Unilateral Termination Rights	98	Eliminated negotiating power	“Offending combination”
Exclusive Supply Penalties	87	Forced dependency	Market manipulation
Data Ownership Violations	43	Lost genetic control	Systematic exploitation

You want to know how these corporate giants really operate? I spent days digging through Australian Federal Court records from 2023…and what I found made my stomach turn.

Lactalis paid AU$950,000 in penalties for 384 separate breaches of their Dairy Code. But that’s not even the scary part. The scary part is what those court documents reveal about systematic farmer exploitation disguised as—well, as legal business practices.

They inserted these “public denigration” clauses into milk supply agreements. Basically, does it mean you criticize them publicly? They can terminate your contract. Just like that.

But here’s the real kicker—they gave themselves unilateral termination rights based on their own interpretation of what constituted criticism. ACCC Commissioner Liza Carver found these contracts created “a chilling effect on farmers…such that they did not speak up when they otherwise might have done so.”

Industrial-scale farmer silencing. Dressed up as contract law.

Each of those 384 violations? Individual farm operations locked into what the court called “an offending combination of clauses.” Contracts specifically designed to eliminate farmer market alternatives while maintaining the fiction of competitive choice.

Their dairy regulations require processors to offer both exclusive and non-exclusive supply options. Sounds fair, right?

Dead wrong.

Lactalis offered non-exclusive deals with such severe price penalties that farmers couldn’t economically accept them. Legal manipulation that eliminates choice while looking totally legitimate on paper.

The Genetic Data Trap Most Guys Miss Completely

Corporate consolidators don’t win by being better farmers. They win by controlling the definition of efficiency itself. And that…that keeps me up at night.

Take the new Milking Speed genetic evaluation that CDCB launched this year. Every milking duration measurement from your inline meters flows through dairy records processing directly to industry databases. When processors control the majority of this performance data, they know which genetics work best in their systems…not necessarily yours.

Bulls get promoted based on daughters that milk fast in processor-controlled validation systems, even if those same genetics require higher feed costs or reduce reproductive performance. Your fresh cows might be cycling poorly during breeding season—and don’t even get me started on what happens to your SCC when you push these high-speed milkers too hard through the parlor—but if they milk out quickly for the processor? That bull’s getting promoted.

This time of year, when guys are making breeding decisions for their fall fresh cows, how many are choosing bulls based on genetic indexes that prioritize processor efficiency over their own butterfat numbers? Over their own management system?

We’re breeding for processing efficiency instead of farm profitability. Without even realizing it.

The Regulatory Breakdown That Made This Corporate Heist Legal

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s July approval reveals either breathtaking incompetence or…well, let’s just say questionable decision-making. I read through their analysis, and it’s disturbing how thoroughly they missed the point.

Their reasoning? “Fonterra and Lactalis have differing end product mixes” with “only limited overlap between operations.”

This completely misses how modern market power actually works. It’s not about buying your direct competitors—that’s old-school monopoly thinking from the 1980s. Today’s corporate giants achieve control by acquiring complementary infrastructure.

Sound familiar? Same exact logic that let Tyson dominate poultry by buying “different” parts of the supply chain—feed mills, processing plants, distribution networks. Next thing you know, chicken farmers became contract growers on their own land.

But here’s the real smoking gun…the same ACCC that documented Lactalis’ systematic farmer exploitation through 384 contract violations somehow concluded that giving this company more market power posed no competitive concerns.

That ain’t regulatory oversight.

The Farmer Organization Silence That Reveals Financial Capture

Why aren’t farmer advocacy groups screaming bloody murder about this consolidation? Well…

Organizations consistently prioritize “working with processors” over challenging consolidation when you examine their actual policy positions. And honestly, it feels like our own organizations have been turned into corporate PR departments while farmers weren’t paying attention.

When your advocacy groups spend more time talking to processors than to producers…something’s fundamentally broken in the system.

The Brutal Math: What’s Actually Happening to American Dairy

The relentless elimination of family dairy farms shows no sign of slowing—with more than 8 operations closing every single day, the consolidation crisis has eliminated over 15,000 farms in just five years.

Let me lay out some numbers from the USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture that’ll make your head spin. When I’m doing my fall review each year, I always dig into the latest data…and it gets more depressing every single time.

We lost 15,221 dairy farms between 2017 and 2022. That’s more than eight farms closing every single day for five straight years.

Eight farms. Every day. Think about that during morning milking.

But here’s the part that should really get your attention…while farms were disappearing, total milk production actually increased. Fewer farms producing more milk means somebody figured out how to make this work on a massive scale while everyone else got eliminated.

According to the Census data, we lost dairy farms of every size except those milking 2,500 cows or more. Those mega-dairies? They’re the only ones that increased in number, and now they control significant portions of U.S. milk production despite being a tiny fraction of total farms.

The economics are brutal when you break it down. Dr. Mark Stephenson at UW-Madison—a guy who really knows his numbers—has calculated that operations milking more than 2,000 cows operate about $10 less per hundredweight than farms with 100 to 199 cows. In 2022, that meant total production costs of around $23 versus $33 per hundredweight.

*The $10 per hundredweight cost advantage that mega-dairies hold over family farms translates to millions in competitive advantage—mathematical proof that the playing field isn’t level anymore.*

Ten bucks doesn’t sound like much…until you multiply it across millions of pounds annually. That’s the difference between profit and bankruptcy when milk prices are tanking and feed costs are through the roof.

The Three-Tier System That’s Already Here

*The transformation is complete—mega-dairies now control nearly two-thirds of American milk production, proving consolidation isn’t coming, it’s already here.*

While everyone’s arguing about whether consolidation is good or bad, it’s already happened. We’re living in a three-tier agricultural system right now—and most farmers don’t even recognize it.

The Mega-Dairies

Operations with 1,000+ cows now control 65% of the nation’s dairy herd, according to Dairy Herd Management’s analysis of USDA data. Algorithms, not farm families, make production decisions. The “farm manager” is basically running a factory that happens to have cows in it.

Contract Production Units

This is where most mid-sized operations are headed, and honestly, it scares me more than the mega-dairies. It’s the poultry model applied to dairy. Farmers invest millions in corporate-specified infrastructure while corporations control genetics, feed protocols, marketing…everything that actually matters.

The National Family Farm Coalition documented that 98% of broiler chickens are now raised under production contracts between processors and farmers. Same exact model’s being applied to dairy right now.

Niche Survival Operations

Small farms serving premium markets that corporate systems can’t efficiently access. They’re constantly one market disruption away from closure because the economics don’t add up at a small scale unless you’re capturing serious premiums through direct marketing. And that requires a whole different skill set than milking cows.

The Asia-Pacific Growth Being Captured for Corporate Shareholders

Industry publications love talking about massive Asia-Pacific dairy market growth. Sounds great for farmers, right?

Wrong again.

Lactalis just positioned itself to capture this growth for shareholders rather than distribute benefits across farming communities. This acquisition gives them control over distribution networks in Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Saudi Arabia—markets experiencing significant growth in dairy consumption, according to industry analysis.

For independent producers, this means systematically reduced buyer competition throughout these growing markets. When one company controls that much distribution infrastructure, they don’t need to fix prices. They just coordinate supply chain behavior in ways that favor their margins over your farm gate prices.

Talk to any producer who’s tried to export…it’s already getting tougher to find buyers who aren’t somehow connected to these big players.

What Your Individual Defense Strategy Can’t Actually Fix

I’m gonna give you concrete defensive tactics in a minute. But let’s be brutally honest about something…individual resistance can’t stop what we’re witnessing here.

These mega-dairies have every advantage in the book. Economies of scale, they own the plants AND the trucks, they’ve got feed contracts most family operations can only dream about. How’s a 500-cow family operation supposed to compete when feed costs are brutal, and milk prices are bouncing around like a pinball?

The math just doesn’t work anymore.

Too many guys are still thinking they can out-manage their way out of this mess. But you can’t manage your way out of systematic market power imbalances. Just can’t do it.

Your Last-Ditch Defense Playbook – Though It Feels Like Bringing a Knife to a Gunfight

First thing you gotta do…audit every contract

Pull every agreement you’ve signed in the last five years. Document every clause that gives your processor unilateral power. Look specifically for:

Non-disparagement language restricting your ability to discuss processor practices publicly
Minimum volume requirements that consume most of your production capacity
Data ownership provisions giving processors rights to your genetic information
Unilateral termination clauses based on the processor’s “opinion” rather than actual violations

More paperwork, I know. But this becomes your legal evidence file when things go sideways—and they will.

Next thing…diversify your buyer relationships

Call every processor within reasonable hauling distance. Don’t just ask about current capacity—ask about contract terms, quality premiums, and genetic data policies. Build yourself a matrix with contact information and logistics. Update this quarterly.

Never, ever become dependent on single-processor relationships again. That’s exactly how they get you locked in.

Value-added opportunities exist, but be realistic about it

Corporate consolidation does create some premium opportunities for direct sales, but you gotta be realistic about the barriers. When butterfat’s tanking and Class III prices are bouncing around, some producers have found success with specialty marketing through cooperatives or direct sales.

But if you’re in traditional dairy country where every restaurant’s already locked into major distribution contracts…and farmstead cheese? Sure, if you’ve got an extra couple hundred thousand lying around for a processing facility, years to navigate FDA requirements, and the marketing skills to build customer relationships from scratch.

Most guys don’t have that luxury.

Protect your genetic data like it’s gold

Maintain independent production records using software you control, not processor-connected systems. Export all historical data from their platforms before access gets restricted. Work with multiple AI organizations to avoid single-supplier dependency.

When processors control genetic validation data, they control which genetics get promoted industry-wide. Your breeding program should optimize for your profitability and your management system, not their processing efficiency.

Political engagement—though I’m not optimistic anymore

Submit public comments on every agricultural consolidation in your region. Contact state legislators about processor contract regulation. This isn’t a civic duty—this is economic self-defense at this point.

Your voice in policy processes becomes your only competitive protection when market forces are stacked against you.

Though honestly…I’m not sure the political process moves fast enough to matter anymore. By the time regulations catch up, the consolidation’s already done and dusted.

The Bottom Line: Individual Strategies Have Real Limits

Individual defense strategies buy you time and negotiating position. But agriculture’s survival as an independent enterprise? That depends on collective alternatives being built, and built fast.

Independent genetic evaluation systems that maintain separation from processor control become critical infrastructure. Alternative financial networks supporting farm-level viability give producers options when traditional lenders prioritize corporate-backed operations.

But I’ll be straight with you…building these alternatives takes time, capital, and coordination that’s getting harder and harder to achieve as consolidation accelerates.

The French billionaire who just bought Asia-Pacific dairy infrastructure? He’s betting that farmers won’t organize effective resistance before corporate systems achieve control, which becomes really, really hard to reverse.

Your individual survival depends on defensive strategies implemented immediately. Agriculture’s future as an independent business depends on whether enough farmers recognize what’s happening and act collectively while there’s still time.

The transformation from farming to corporate employment—well, in my view, that’s happening by design, not natural law. What’s designed by humans can be redesigned by humans—if they act before it gets too late.

But the window’s getting smaller every day. And that French billionaire? He’s counting on most farmers not noticing until it’s already closed and locked.

You bet he is.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

Why This Dairy Market Correction Feels Different – and What It Means for Our Farms – This article provides critical strategic insight into the current global market downturn. It shows how top producers are diversifying revenue streams and investing in operational efficiency to survive, giving you a roadmap to acquire distressed assets and emerge stronger.
The $50 Billion Truth: Why Canada’s Supply Management System is Quietly Outperforming Every ‘Free Market’ Dairy System – This piece offers a powerful alternative perspective on market stability. It uses a case study of Canada’s system to reveal how producers can use collective action to eliminate market volatility and secure transparent, long-term profitability that prevents corporate consolidation from taking hold.
The Next Frontier: What’s Really Coming for Dairy Cattle Breeding (2025-2030) – Beyond just defense, this article is a strategic guide to the future of genetics. It reveals how farmers can use emerging technologies like AI-driven breeding and gene editing to capture new revenue streams from premium markets, positioning your operation for future success.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : dairy farm consolidation, Dairy Farm Profitability, genetic data ownership, milk pricing

The Fed Rate Cut Reality: What Every Dairy Farmer Needs to Understand

Thursday, September 11th, 2025

Think the Fed rate cut’s good news? We’ve got data that says otherwise. Your dairy needs to hear this…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: At The Bullvine, we’re seeing the Fed’s upcoming rate cut as more caution flag than celebration. The real story isn’t cheaper money—it’s what drives the Fed to cut rates when unemployment claims hit 263,000. USDA data shows that every 1% unemployment rise slashes dairy consumption by 3%, hitting premium products hardest. Meanwhile, we’ve lost 15,221 farms since 2017 while production held steady through consolidation and tech advances. Robotic milking delivers 5-8 year ROI for 1,000+ cow operations, but smaller herds face tougher economics (Cornell Extension). Milk fat levels climbing to 4.2% nationally create premium opportunities—but mainly for operations with capital to invest in genetics and nutrition programs. The trend’s clear: scale advantages keep compounding while mid-size farms get squeezed. We’re telling progressive producers to think strategically about debt, master their costs, and build unique market positions before the storm hits harder.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Economic reality check: 1% unemployment increase = 3% dairy consumption drop, especially premium products worth $2-4 more per hundredweight
Action: Monitor local job markets and adjust premium product focus accordingly
Source: USDA Economic Research Service confirms this correlation across multiple economic cycles
Technology ROI varies drastically: Robotic milking pays back in 5-8 years for 1,000+ cow herds but struggles under 500 cows
Action: Calculate your specific labor costs vs. system costs before investing—don’t follow the herd
Source: Cornell Extension’s 2024 analysis shows regional labor costs make or break these investments
Consolidation accelerating: 15,221 fewer farms since 2017, but production steady through efficiency gains
Action: Either scale up strategically or carve out protected niche markets now, before you’re forced to
Source: USDA Census data reveals the math behind surviving operations
Component premiums reward genetics investment: National butterfat average hit 4.2%, adding real dollars to milk checks
Action: Invest in proven genetics and precision feeding to capture $0.15-0.30/cwt component premiums
Source: Journal of Dairy Science tracking shows a consistent upward trend worth real money
Network participation trade-offs: Upfront costs often exceed $150K while reducing operational control
Action: Evaluate governance structures carefully—know what decisions you’re giving up before signing
Source: Industry reports show mixed results depending on network structure and farmer involvement

dairy farm profitability, dairy industry trends, farm financial management, milk pricing, agricultural economics

Look, everyone’s talking about the Federal Reserve cutting rates like it’s Christmas morning. Cheaper money, easier equipment loans, maybe finally getting that barn expansion done. But here’s what’s been bugging me about all this optimism — this rate cut isn’t the gift most people think it is.

The market’s putting about 90% odds on a quarter-point cut this September. Now, before you start calling your banker, ask yourself this: when does the Fed slash rates this aggressively? Usually, when they’re genuinely worried about what’s coming down the pipeline.

The Unemployment Warning

SignalRecent jobless claims hit 263,000 — and that number should grab every dairy farmer’s attention. When folks lose paychecks, they don’t just cut back on restaurants. They switch from your premium Greek yogurt to a store brand. From organic milk to whatever’s cheapest on the shelf.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service has been tracking this correlation for years. Every 1% rise in unemployment typically slashes dairy consumption by about 3%, hitting specialty products hardest. So while you might save a few hundred monthly on loan interest, you could lose thousands in revenue from weakened demand.

That math doesn’t pencil out in our favor.

Scale Advantages Keep Compounding

Here’s what gets under my skin — industry analysts report that large dairy operations access substantially larger credit facilities than smaller farms, often enabling volume purchasing advantages that we simply cannot match. They’re not just buying feed; they’re locking in prices months ahead while we’re paying spot rates.

Technology tells the same story. Cornell Extension research shows robotic milking systems can pay for themselves in 5-8 years… but only for operations milking over 1,000 cows, especially in high labor-cost regions where wages exceed $18 per hour.

For a 400-cow operation in Wisconsin? The numbers get pretty challenging pretty fast.

What’s Really Happening Out There

The USDA’s 2022 Census confirms what most of us already know in our gut — we lost 15,221 dairy farms between 2017 and 2022, yet total production barely budged. Fewer farms are milking more cows with better technology and tighter management.

Industry reports indicate that acquired operations often experience significant production gains through facility upgrades and improved management practices. It’s becoming the norm, not the exception.

The Network Promise Reality

Dairy networks are being pitched as the great equalizer, but proceed with your eyes wide open. Industry observations suggest network participation often involves substantial upfront financial commitments, with some arrangements requiring significant investments.

More importantly, industry data indicate that some network participants report concerns about reduced day-to-day operational control. You might hold title to the land and cows, but strategic decisions increasingly get made by professional management teams.

The Component Silver Lining

There is legitimate good news in the milk quality story. Journal of Dairy Science research shows national average butterfat levels have climbed to around 4.2%, creating real value through component premiums.

But here’s the catch — maximizing those gains requires investment in genetics, feeding programs, and management systems that tend to favor larger operations. Once again, scale matters.

What This Means for Your Operation

If you’re milking anywhere from 200 to 800 cows, here’s my take:

Don’t get seduced by cheap money. Lower rates might tempt expansion, but if underlying demand is softening, debt becomes an anchor, not a lifeline.
Track every expense like your survival depends on it. Know your cost per hundredweight down to the penny. Margins are razor-thin across all farm sizes.
Double down on your story. Whether it’s grass-fed, local, or just “the freshest milk in three counties,” brand differentiation isn’t optional anymore. Direct sales and regional marketing still offer decent premiums for farms willing to do the work.
Get politically engaged locally. County commissioners decide zoning. State legislators write environmental regulations. These folks often impact your operation more than anything happening in Washington.

The Bottom Line

This isn’t about weathering another economic cycle. We’re watching structural changes that are redefining what dairy farming looks like. The advantages of scale have compounded dramatically, creating gaps that can’t be bridged through efficiency alone.

Rate cuts might provide some breathing room on financing costs, but they’re signaling broader economic challenges that could reshape dairy demand patterns. Success requires understanding these dynamics and positioning strategically rather than just hoping for the best.

The operations that survive won’t be those celebrating cheaper loans. They’ll be the ones who recognize economic reality and adapt accordingly — before they’re forced to.

Market projections carry inherent uncertainty, but the direction seems clear. This Fed move is a warning to batten down the hatches, not a signal to expand into choppy waters.

We dig deeper into the data so you can make smarter decisions. That’s what The Bullvine does—question assumptions, follow the evidence, and help progressive dairy operations thrive.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

5 Technologies That Will Make or Break Your Dairy Farm in 2025 – The main article touches on tech, but this piece dives deep into specific innovations like smart calf monitoring and advanced genetics. It reveals how strategic investments in technology can deliver rapid ROI, slash mortality rates, and increase milk component values, proving that scale isn’t the only path to success.
2025 Canadian Dairy Outlook: Slight Dip in Milk Prices, but Steady Growth Ahead – While the main article focuses on U.S. economic signals, this piece provides a critical market-based perspective with a global view. It details the nuances of price fluctuations, consumer demand shifts, and the importance of sustainability, helping you understand the broader economic context beyond the Fed’s actions.
Boosting Dairy Farm Profits: 7 Effective Strategies to Enhance Cash Flow – This article moves from macro-level economic concerns to the micro-level, offering concrete, tactical strategies you can implement right now. It provides a practical guide to optimizing everything from milking parlor efficiency to diversifying revenue streams, giving you the immediate tools to thrive in a tough market.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : Dairy Farm Profitability, dairy industry trends, farm financial management, milk pricing

More Than Policy: For Jim Mulhern, Legacy is Measured One More Season at a Time

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025

When times got tough, Jim Mulhern fought to keep dairy farmers afloat—his legacy is measured in seasons survived, not speeches made.

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/2197238/">E356 More Than Policy: For Jim Mulhern, Legacy is | RSS.com</a>

***Jim Mulhern speaks on Capitol Hill: Leading with calm resolve and a producer’s perspective during his transformational tenure at NMPF.***

What’s interesting about Jim Mulhern’s legacy—really, what stands out if you hang around barn meetings or share coffees after a long Expo day—isn’t just the policies on paper or the speeches under the lights. It’s how many dairy producers, across regions and generations, end up telling the same sort of story: when margins went south, when feed costs jumped, when times felt especially lean—somewhere in the background, or sometimes the foreground, Jim or his policy work was part of the survival toolkit. Sometimes it’s an NMPF Zoom, sometimes it’s a barn newsletter that started somewhere in DC, but at the end of the day, it’s about service, not a resume.

Ask producers from different regions and you hear variations of the same story: when margins got tight and options felt limited, Jim’s approach—listening first, speaking plainly—made challenging situations feel more manageable. Jim never had miracles—but if you picked up the phone, he’d listen, cut through the DC fog, and, true to form, drop that middle-child line: ‘You get good at compromise or you don’t eat!’ It made disaster feel… survivable.”

That earthy, honest support is the current running through his 45 years. Policy? It matters—but in dairy, legacy is how many operations get to run another season. So, let’s skip the official bio-paper and start where it hits hardest: with those farm stories that turn ‘legacy’ into something you can actually hold.

The Thing About Legacy in Dairy

It’s never been about reform tallies or titles. Ask anyone who’s watched drought suck the valley dry in Tulare, or a New Yorker calculating butterfat after a ration swap, or a Nevada dairyman wincing at the new heifer price sheet. Legacy’s about who keeps showing up—boots on, sleeves rolled—when everyone else is home.

Jim’s roots? Portage, Wisconsin—a big breakfast table, weekends on neighbors’ farms, one of those upbringings where you learned fast how problems got solved. Shuffled off to UW-Madison, he wasn’t in it for the hands-on milking; it was about using ag journalism to keep his hands in the land. That early DC internship with Bob Kastenmeier made it real: policy’s not a sideline, not if you steer it for the folks actually working the ground.

Compromise Isn’t a Dirty Word—It’s the Dairy Way

Here’s what the industry crowd knows: volume in a boardroom never means as much as listening on the ground. Jim, one of nine siblings, had the lessons of compromise engrained before he could drive. “The hardest part of co-op isn’t the milk check—it’s getting everyone on the same page.”

The road through FMMO reform? Nobody who was there would call it smooth. Those months would test anyone’s patience—herding Holsteins along a muddy path more than a couple of times. With all the regional priorities—Midwest cheese, Plains expansion, fluid markets in the West—compromise wasn’t an act, it was the job description. Jim pulled in trusted voices like Jim Sleper, and always circled back to what mattered: “Nobody walked away with everything, but everybody left knowing, ‘Yeah, my big worry was on the table.’” That’s why the results stuck when it mattered most.

Living Risk—Not Just Avoiding It

Let’s get down to it: bring up MILC, MPP, DMC (Dairy Margin Coverage program) at any coffee shop, and yeah, you’ll get some eye-rolls—until another dairy downturn reminds folks why it matters. Before the overhaul, many people figured their best shot was a prayer, insurance, and maybe a check if things got rough.

However, this is the new trend: with DMC, mid-sized to small operations have a real net. DMC’s pushed out over $2 billion when the pain hit hardest—money that kept for-sale signs out of the barn windows. You hear the same story everywhere—Michigan’s Thumb, a dry-lot outside Yuma, a late-night text from Idaho. When COVID hammered the sector, and the checks came, people said straight up, “That’s what kept cows fed and my kids in 4H.” That’s policy making a difference.

But managing risk wasn’t just about safety nets; it was also about fighting for a fair, predictable price in the first place—a battle that brought Jim straight to the messy heart of FMMO reform.

FMMO Reform—Messy, But Worth It

“Modernization” means one thing in Kansas, another in the Northwest—new barns going up in the plains, headaches with fluid class in the West. What’s striking, if you circle back with any co-op lead or new face from Montana to the Southeast, is that Jim didn’t duck the bumps. “Processors wanted unity for the Farm Bill, but the pandemic called the bluff—the formula needed rewriting. Still, we got folks back at the table and eventually hammered it out.” Grumbling’s still common (just call Vermont), but, as one co-op chair reminded me, “predictable beats chaos in my mailbox.”

Stewardship—Not Buzz, Just How You Farm

Sustainability’s trendy on the panel circuit, but “stewardship”—that’s been inside farming forever. Jim credits his convictions to watching families, his and others, do more with less, finding ways to turn waste into value, and always prepping for next year.

Ask the digester crew in Yakima. Or Florida operators who count every rainstorm and stretch a cover crop for two seasons. Policy eventually caught up: “We’ve cut emissions, improved yields, done more with less. Maybe, finally, that story is landing with customers and Congress.”

The Unfinished Battles: Immigration and Trade

You can measure most farm headaches by the grumble at Bullvine coffee hours, and nothing comes up more than labor and trade. Western herds, New York recalls, up into Quebec—if you don’t have crew, or if a new market wall goes up, everything halts. Jim’s honest about it: “Progress or not, it isn’t done until the guys in the parlor feel a difference.” Right now, Congress is stuck. And in ag, policy’s only as good as its impact before sunrise.

Labels, School Milk, and the Small Battles

Want to get Mulhern animated? Bring up almond “milk.” “Fake products using real dairy terms—FDA should’ve stepped in years ago.” And getting whole milk back in schools? If you’re not convinced, check in with a school nutrition lead in the Upper Midwest. “What we feed kids isn’t just a menu—it’s a message to the next generation.”

Passing the Torch—Not Just Polished Shoes on the Boardroom Floor

Ask Jim about wins, and he talks about his team, not tallies. “Building up smart, driven staff—beating paperwork by a mile,” he’ll say if you push. A real legacy isn’t a retirement countdown; it’s whether the next generation takes the lessons and actually runs with them.

Gregg Doud’s taking over, and from what Mulhern’s said publicly, the endorsement couldn’t be clearer: ‘Gregg is an established leader with a wealth of experience in ag policy. He knows the issues well, and he knows how to get things done.’ As more than one industry observer has noted, Jim’s legacy isn’t about grand gestures—it’s about leaving the field a little more level than he found it.

The Bottom Line—From the Parlor to the Boardroom

When you talk legacy around here, don’t glance at the plaque. Remember a neighbor scraping through a thin season thanks to a new rule, a check that cleared, or maybe just the right frank call at the right time. Sometimes it’s small, sometimes it makes the difference between getting the next shipment of feed or not.

You spot Jim Mulhern at Expo, maybe catching a sunrise before the barns get busy? You don’t need to make a speech. A nod—or a simple thank you—does the trick. The glue in this business has always been the unsung folks, steady at the wheel while the rest of us are milking before dawn.

Here at The Bullvine, that’s the vantage point we stand by: from the muddy middle, never giving up, proud of the next mile. Telling stories that help us all do it again, season after season.

Key Takeaways

Jim Mulhern’s legacy is defined by practical, producer-first leadership—he prioritized compromise, collaboration, and real-world policy solutions that mattered at the farm level.
His tenure saw major wins for dairy risk management (notably the DMC program), FMMO modernization, and timely COVID relief, helping stabilize milk checks and ensure producer survival through volatile markets.
Mulhern’s approach was always rooted in listening, unity, and finding common ground, even amid fierce regional and industry divides.
Ongoing challenges like labor, immigration, and global trade remain urgent—not “wrapped up” as he exits, but spotlighted as unfinished business for the next generation.
Beyond the boardroom, Mulhern is remembered for championing dairy’s true values—stewardship, authenticity, and resilience—leaving U.S. dairy better prepared for whatever comes next.

Executive Summary

Jim Mulhern’s legacy as retiring NMPF President isn’t written in speeches or boardroom victories—it’s measured season by season, in the everyday resilience of dairy producers his work helped sustain. Drawing on Midwestern roots and a knack for compromise forged as the middle child in a large family, Mulhern led policy moves like FMMO modernization and the Dairy Margin Coverage program that directly impacted milk checks in tough years. He was known for human-scale leadership: listening, cutting through politics, and prioritizing practical solutions that reached the parlor as much as the Capitol. The article spotlights Mulhern’s industry role in navigating regional divides, rallying co-ops, and meeting challenge after challenge—from market risk to labor and trade demands—with humility and relentless advocacy. Through anecdotes, peer insight, and grounded storytelling, it connects his legacy to themes of stewardship, collaboration, and the quiet determination that defines the dairy industry’s backbone. Even as he steps aside for a new generation, Mulhern’s mark endures in the unity he fostered and the real-world relief he delivered when it counted most.. This is the story of a leader whose true victories remain etched in seasons survived, not just awards won.

Learn More:

Bull in a China Shop: How Juan Moreno Turned the Dairy World Upside Down – This Colombian farm kid didn’t just enter dairy’s china shop—he deliberately smashed outdated breeding practices and rebuilt the entire industry.
McCarty Family Farms Named 2023 Innovative Dairy Farmer of the Year – This profile showcases the innovative business strategies that drive a large-scale, award-winning operation. It provides a blueprint for leveraging stewardship and supply chain partnerships to build a resilient and sustainable dairy business for the next generation.
Dairy Risk Management: Protecting Your Bottom Line in Volatile Times – While policy provides a safety net, this article offers practical strategies for protecting your margins on-farm. It details actionable steps for using market tools and internal benchmarks to build financial resilience against price volatility, complementing the high-level policy discussion.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Dairy Industry Professionals

Tags : dairy leadership, dairy profitability, FMMO modernization, Jim Mulhern, milk pricing, National Milk Producers Federation, risk management

Daily CME Dairy Market Report for Tuesday, August 26, 2025: Cheese Buyers Stepped Up While Butter Slipped

Tuesday, August 26th, 2025

71¢ Class III–IV spread today; that’s real money on the milk check—don’t leave it on the table.

Executive Summary: Here’s the short version, neighbor: barrels jumped 4¢, blocks gained 1.5¢, and that tugged September Class III up to $18.64/cwt while butter slid 5.5¢ and pinned Class IV at $17.93/cwt, which is exactly why the spread matters right now. The math flows through the Federal Order formulas—protein and fat convert those spot moves into pay price—so a penny on cheese isn’t just trivia, it’s mailbox money when USDA posts the monthly Class and Component prices. Globally, EEX and NZX boards keep saying the same thing: U.S. butter looks cheap on a $/lb basis, but EU SMP keeps leaning on our NDM rallies, and that’s why Class IV keeps lagging in 2025’s shoulder season. The practical takeaway: a staged Class III hedge at $18.64 can stabilize revenue while waiting for powders to stop leaking—start with 20–30% of Q4 and adjust if barrels hold $1.80 support for a few more calls. On feed, DEC corn near 4.09 and DEC meal around 293 make the milk-to-feed ratio workable, not wild, which argues for ration tweaks that buy components rather than adding fresh cows just to chase volume. According to the USDA’s pricing framework, small spot shifts compounded over a few weeks can swing component checks more than most people admit—so timing hedge windows to the monthly announcement cycle is just good housekeeping. Bottom line: optimize for component value and hedge the cheese strength now—waiting for Class IV to do the heavy lifting in this setup isn’t a strategy.

Key takeaways

Capture the spread: Locking 20–30% of Q4 at $18.64 can lift revenue stability by roughly $0.20–$0.30/cwt versus staying fully floating if barrels hold $1.80 support this week; stage in, don’t chase.
Component over volume: With Class IV at $17.93 and powders capped by EU SMP, focus on protein/fat yield—USDA’s formula turns small spot gains into real dollars when the monthly bulletin posts.
Global read-through: EEX/NZX signals indicate that U.S. butter is export-competitive, but SMP pressure persists; stay nimble on IV hedges and prioritize cheese-led coverage until FX or SMP shifts the tone.
Practical step today: Re-run rations with DEC corn ~4.09 and DEC meal ~293 to see if a half-point bump in components beats paying up for spot milk basis in the Upper Midwest this week.
Process discipline: Time pricing decisions to the CME spot call cadence and USDA announcement schedule—microstructure and release timing drive how quickly the math hits the milk check.

dairy market report, milk pricing, Class III vs Class IV spread, dairy risk management, farm profitability

The split was remarkably clean today: barrels popped 4¢ and blocks added 1.5¢, pulling September Class III to 18.64/cwt. In contrast, a 5.5¢ butter dump leaned on Class IV at 17.93/cwt, so component value steered the check more than the headline average—and it showed on the tape and the settle screen. Here’s the thing, though: cheese strength like this often shows up in near-term checks if it sticks for a few sessions, but butter’s slide is still the ceiling for Class IV-heavy pools until either NDM or butter flips the tone, which the market didn’t hint at today.

What moved—and why it matters

Product	Closing Price	Today’s Move	Week-to-Date Context	Real Impact on Farm
Cheese Blocks	$1.8100/lb	+1.50¢	Firm-to-higher	Directly lifts Class III; every penny here shows up in component value
Cheese Barrels	$1.8000/lb	+4.00¢	The day’s engine	Pre-Labor Day restocking and fall foodservice drove bids; the strongest Class III read-through today
Butter	$2.1850/lb	−5.50¢	Slipping this week	Caps Class IV until fat or powder firm; 4a/4b pools feel it first
NDM Grade A	$1.2525/lb	−0.50¢	Flat-to-softer	Global SMP pressure is still capping rallies; IV math notices
Dry Whey	$0.5700/lb	NC	Stable	Quiet but real Class III support in the background

The thing about barrels today—no trades, higher anyway—was a dead giveaway that bids did the work. Buyers wanted just-in-time coverage during the Labor Day stretch, when school menus and pizza/c-store pulls come back in full force, which is exactly the late-August pattern we tend to see on the call. Butter felt like a motivated-seller tape with nine offers stacked against eight bids, and that’s how a 5.5¢ air pocket prints on light flow when buyers don’t need to chase at the offer—more tone setter than trend by itself, but Class IV still hears it.

Trading mechanics—why cheese felt “real” and butter felt “order-driven”

Barrels showed buyer initiative with two bids versus one offer, while butter flipped that script with offers in control; on a one-lot kind of day in butter/blocks/NDM, that imbalance is all it takes to move price without proving depth beyond the call’s short windows. A caution worth underlining on light-activity days: one-lot prints can stretch price without confirming follow-through. Better question before bigger moves on the basis or spot milk tied to a single call: “Do those bids stick tomorrow?”.

Support and resistance looked straightforward: barrels built a psychological floor at 1.80, while butter’s first test is whether 2.15–2.18 holds as a landing zone or if sellers press again into the next call—that’s the zone to watch for stop-and-reverse behavior midweek.

Microstructure Benchmarks (4-week rolling averages; pilot scaffold)

Product	Trades (4-wk avg)	Bids (4-wk avg)	Offers (4-wk avg)
Blocks	Publishing begins next report (CME Spot Call baseline)	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report
Barrels	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report
Butter	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report
NDM	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report	Publishing begins next report

Today’s read: barrel bidding was noticeably active relative to a “normal” balanced call, while butter offers were roughly in line with what plants expect on a motivated-seller Tuesday heading into late August.

Options Watch: Front-month Class III options implied volatility tracking launches here; the initial read is steady day-over-day, with a verifiable CME-sourced series to be displayed alongside settlements, beginning with the next report, to maintain this signal’s audibility for risk books.

Global landscape—U.S. butter looks cheap; powder lanes are crowded

What’s interesting is how the global board lines up: EEX nearby butter in the mid-€6.6-6.7k/MT neighborhood and NZX butter in the high-$6.6-7.1k/MT range convert into the low-to-mid $3s per lb at today’s euro reference rate. As a result, U.S. butter, currently priced at $2.18 and in the low $2.30s, looks export-competitive once spreads, capacity, and freight align with buyer coverage windows again. SMP remains the street fight—EEX SMP sits near the mid-€2.4-2.5k/MT band while U.S. NDM holds near $1.25/lb, which is exactly why Class IV can’t catch a sustained bid until either EU prices lift or FX swings back our way for several sessions in a row, a dynamic exporters are managing daily. Oceania boards show AMF/butter is firm enough to keep New Zealand competitive in Southeast Asia, so U.S. powder wins are more likely to be tactical cargoes into timing gaps than a sustained flow until pricing or currency tilts our way—classic shoulder-season behavior.

Global Price Conversions: European (EEX) and Oceania (NZX) prices are converted to a comparable $/lb basis. Formula: €/MT to $/lb = (€/MT × USD/EUR) ÷ 2204.62; same-day euro reference rate drawn from central-bank publication for USD/EUR comparisons.

Feed and margins—workable, not wild

December corn closed 4.0925/bu and December soybean meal 293.10/ton, putting a standard 16% protein ration in the zone where a Class III 18.64/cwt check creates a workable income-over-feed, but not an “open the fresh-cow floodgates” setup, especially where hay quality took a heat hit and needs ration tweaks to keep butterfat numbers honest. Keep the milk-to-feed ratio simple for planning: today sits shy of the “3.0 feels green-light” rule of thumb, so the play is tightening rations for efficiency rather than expansion—the same counsel most nutritionists are giving across Wisconsin’s cheese alley and California’s 4a country this week. And a mechanical reminder: the USDA Class & Component formulas serve as guardrails that transmit these spot/futures moves into the monthly pay price, which is why hedge windows should be sequenced around those releases.

Forecast anchors—official releases and what the strip is saying

USDA’s Class & Component Prices are published monthly and anchor pooled milk checks, so cash-flow planning and hedge windows should live on that cadence—it’s unglamorous, but it prevents mailbox surprises when settlement math hits the statement. The strip is saying the quiet part out loud: September Class III settled 18.64 while Class IV sat 17.93, and until fat and powder firm together, expect the III–IV spread to keep signaling which pools are advantaged on component value as late-summer checks settle. For hedge books, the straightforward read is to layer some Q4 milk on cheese-led strength and keep IV hedges opportunistic on rallies until powders stop finding sellers—the same pacing plant buyers tend to use ahead of fall promos when barrels are doing the heavy lifting.

Regional color—Upper Midwest feels the lift first; California minds the butter

Upper Midwest plants are pulling hard into fall cheese demand, and that’s where the 4¢ barrel print does the most good immediately for mailbox checks and short-haul spot milk premiums for weekend pasteurizer runs—one extra clean load more than earns its keep in late August. California’s story is different—4a math feels the butter slip directly, even as Westside feed costs eased a touch with corn drifting and meal not spiking, so cash-flow planning favors steady, not sprinting, while processors manage butter stocks and churn time into early fall. In both regions, the same operational refrain kept coming up: keep components tight, watch the call, and don’t let a one-lot Tuesday swing the pricing plan without a second day of confirmation on the spot tape and the futures close—it’s just good discipline in August.

What to do now—moves that travel from barn to boardroom

Price risk: Consider layering 20–30% of Q4 Class III at or above today’s settle to lock cheese-led strength; keep Class IV hedges opportunistic on rallies until NDM stops leaking.
Feed check: Re-run ration economics with DEC corn at ~$ 4.09 and DEC meal at ~$ 293; can a ration tweak buy a half-point of component cheaper than chasing the spot basis this week?
Premiums & formulas: Call the plant to confirm how barrels/blocks roll into the pay price and whether fall-promo premiums are available for consistent loads and quality in a ~71¢ III–IV spread world.

Market voices—how participants read the day

Floor chatter after the call: “barrels are doing the heavy lifting,” which fits a two-bid/one-offer setup and a no-trade uptick that tells you buyers are leaning—when that starts pre-holiday, it often carries a few sessions if fundamentals hold. The processor from the Midwest said fall promos are real on the books, and butter coverage feels adequate for immediate needs—which is exactly the kind of split that prints a cheese-up/butter-down Tuesday in late August. From a risk seat, the guidance was to respect the spread: hedge the thing the market is rewarding (cheese) and avoid forcing the thing it’s discounting (powders) until the global board and FX stop rewarding Europe and Oceania for more than a day or two at a time.

Bottom line—the component mix did the talking

Cheese strength nudged near-term checks higher, while butter softness reminded everyone that Class IV can cap upside until powders and fat firm together, which argues for managing risk by class instead of treating “the milk price” as one big number this week. One cue into tomorrow’s call: let the 1.80 barrel floor dictate whether to add a little Class III protection, and don’t chase Class IV until the powder board, FX, and U.S. spot stop pulling against each other for more than a day or two—it’s the patient money that tends to stick into October.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

Seizing the Moment: Maximizing Milk Solids Output Through Strategic Nutrition and Genetics – This article provides tactical, on-farm strategies for improving the milk components discussed in the report. It details how to adjust rations, use supplements, and leverage genetics to directly increase the protein and butterfat that drive your milk check.
2025 Dairy Market Reality Check: Why Everything You Think You Know About This Year’s Outlook is Wrong – This piece zooms out to the strategic level, analyzing the component-driven market trends and FMMO reforms behind the price spreads. It reveals how processor investments and policy shifts are creating new profit opportunities for strategic-minded producers.
How Health, Product Science, and Technology Will Drive the Future of Dairy Farming and Boost Your Profits – Looking forward, this article explores how innovations like precision fermentation and automated systems are boosting efficiency and profitability. It demonstrates how investing in technology now can create a more resilient and competitive dairy operation for the future.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : CME Dairy Markets

Tags : Class III vs Class IV spread, dairy market report, dairy risk management, milk pricing

The Feed Cost Squeeze That’s Crushing Dairy Margins — And Why Smart Producers Are Already Positioning for What’s Coming Next

Sunday, July 20th, 2025

The protein cost explosion that’s reshaping how we think about profitability… and why smart producers are already positioning for what’s coming next

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Here’s what’s keeping me up at night, and it should worry you too… feed costs are absolutely crushing dairy margins in ways we haven’t seen since 2012, with soybean meal prices exploding to $285 per ton — that’s an extra $5,250 monthly for a typical 1,000-cow operation. The milk-to-feed ratio has dropped to a dangerous 1.80, which Penn State Extension calls “critical financial territory.”Meanwhile, our national herd keeps shrinking by 40,000 head while replacement heifers cost $2,500 each, and here’s the kicker — those Q4 futures sitting at $18.58 suggest better days ahead, but only if you can survive the squeeze. Global demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia is keeping NDM prices strong, but that won’t help if your feed bills are bleeding you dry. You need to stop thinking about this as a temporary blip and start treating it as the new reality — because the operations that get their risk management and feed efficiency dialed in now will be the ones still milking when prices recover.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Slash feed costs by 8-12% through precision ration management — we’re talking $10-15 savings per cow monthly when soybean meal hits these record highs, and every dollar counts with margins this tight
Lock in your DRP coverage NOW for fall quarters — match your federal order’s class utilization instead of just hedging Class III, because that $1.57 spread between Class IV and III could leave you exposed if you’re not careful
Focus genetic selection on feed conversion efficiency — Journal of Dairy Science research shows 5% improvements are realistic, meaning more milk from the same (expensive) feed inputs in today’s brutal cost environment
Monitor that milk-to-feed ratio like your bank account depends on it — anything below 2.0 signals serious financial stress, and at 1.80 we’re already in dangerous territory across most U.S. herds
Leverage the export strength while it lasts — Mexico buying 50%+ of our NDM exports is creating a price floor, so work with your processor to capture those premiums before trade winds shift

The thing about this summer’s dairy margins — they’re not just tight, they’re pinched in a way I haven’t seen since that brutal 2012 drought. And if you think I’m being dramatic, well… take a hard look at your feed bills lately.

What strikes me most about what we’re dealing with right now isn’t just another commodity cycle. This feels different. It’s like watching a fundamental reshaping of the cost structure that has even seasoned producers scratching their heads and recalculating everything they thought they knew about staying profitable.

While everyone’s been tracking Class III futures holding around $17.79/cwt, there’s been this massive shift happening in the feed markets that’s completely rewriting the playbook. The soybean meal complex? Man, it’s gone absolutely haywire — and it’s catching farms off-guard left and right.

When Feed Costs Start Calling the Shots

You know how we always talk about watching the corn market? Well, forget corn for a minute. What’s really crushing margins right now is what’s happening on the protein side of things, and it’s brutal.

According to recent work from Penn State Extension dairy economists, operations running feed costs above 60% of milk revenue are now in what they’re calling “critical financial territory.” That’s not just academic talk — I’m hearing from producers in Wisconsin who are seeing soybean meal bills jump from around $250/ton to $285.30/ton in what feels like overnight.

***Key dairy market indicators for the week ending July 18, 2025, showing price comparisons and margin squeeze signals***

Do the math on a typical 1,000-cow operation running through 15 tons weekly — that’s an extra $5,250 hitting your monthly expenses. And that’s before we even discuss all the other protein sources that are being pulled up with it. (This is becoming more common than anyone wants to admit.)

Here’s the thing, though… this isn’t just commodity volatility we can wait out. What we’re dealing with is structural pressure from renewable diesel, which is crushing, that’s putting sustained upward pressure on the bean complex. The latest USDA outlook projects a record-high soybean crush for the 2025/26 marketing year, driven by soaring demand for soybean oil in biofuels. When crushers are running flat out for biofuel demand, guess who gets stuck with the meal price consequences?

This development is fascinating from a market structure perspective, but terrifying when you’re trying to balance rations and keep cows happy.

Why the Futures Are Telling a Different Story

What’s particularly noteworthy about the current market structure is how disconnected cash and futures have become. CME data shows fourth-quarter Class III futures sitting around $18.58 – that’s a pretty healthy premium over where we are today.

But here’s where it gets interesting… that contango structure isn’t random market noise. It’s the collective wisdom of traders who see something coming that a lot of producers might be missing. They’re looking at two things that should have every dairy operator paying attention.

First, there’s this wave of new processing capacity coming online through late 2025 and into 2026. I’m talking major cheese and fluid plants in New York, Texas… facilities that represent permanent — or let’s say, ‘multi-decade’ — increases in milk demand. These aren’t temporary pop-up operations. They’ll need milk, lots of it, for years ahead.

Second — and this is where the supply math gets really interesting — our national herd is actually contracting. The latest USDA data puts us at 9.325 million head, down 40,000 from last year. Even with beef prices at current levels, producers aren’t expanding. Why? Because replacement heifers are commanding $2,500 a head[1], and margins are getting squeezed from both ends.

Think about that dynamic for a minute. New processing demand meeting constrained supply growth? That’s the recipe for processors bidding aggressively for available milk. What’s your operation going to look like when that competition heats up?

The Regional Reality Nobody Wants to Talk About

Now, here’s where things get really nuanced — and this varies dramatically depending on where you’re milking. If you’re in the Upper Midwest, where Class III utilization runs heavy, you’re dealing with one set of margin pressures. But if you’re down in the Southeast or Northeast, where do Class IV and Class I drive more of your milk check? Completely different ballgame.

What’s particularly brutal right now is the Producer Price Differential — you know, that PPD adjustment that balances milk class values within each federal order. With Class IV trading at a $1.57 premium over Class III, we’re seeing negative PPDs that’re blindsiding producers who thought they understood their milk pricing.

***CME spot prices for key dairy products as of July 18, 2025, illustrating butter as the highest priced product and dry whey as the lowest***

The accounting mechanics get complex, but the bottom line is simple — your actual milk check might be substantially lower than what the headline Class III price suggests. I was talking to a producer in Federal Order 30 last week who said something that really stuck with me:

“I’ve been doing this for twenty-five years, and I’ve never seen my milk check disconnect from the Class III price like this.”

That’s the PPD effect in action, and it’s not going away anytime soon. Current trends suggest this disconnect will persist as long as the class spread remains this wide.

Are you factoring this into your planning? Because a lot of operations aren’t.

Your Strategic Response Window — And Why It’s Narrowing

Here’s what really concerns me about the current situation. While everyone is trying to figure out the immediate margin squeeze, the window for strategic positioning is actually narrowing rapidly.

Coverage for Q4 production through the USDA’s Dairy Revenue Protection program remains available at reasonable premiums, but this won’t last forever. What’s your coverage strategy looking like right now? Are you even thinking about it?

What’s interesting about the DRP strategy in this environment is how the wide class spread is forcing producers to really understand how their milk check gets built. If you’re in a high Class IV utilization region, purchasing protection based solely on Class III futures is like buying fire insurance for a flood. You end up with a hedge mismatch that could cost you big time.

The component pricing option may make more sense for many operations right now. By insuring your butterfat and protein values directly, you sidestep all the complex pool accounting and get protection that actually tracks with your component payments. It’s more sophisticated than the traditional approach, but the math works better in this environment.

(Producers are seeing this everywhere — the old “one size fits all” approach to risk management just doesn’t cut it anymore.)

What Smart Operators Are Already Doing

The producers who will come out ahead in this environment aren’t the ones trying to time the market perfectly. They’re the ones implementing comprehensive risk management strategies while maintaining operational efficiency.

Here’s what I’m seeing from the sharpest operations: they’re treating this margin squeeze as a strategic positioning opportunity rather than just a crisis to survive. They understand that the operations maintaining production capacity through this difficult period will be the ones benefiting when processing demand starts competing for limited milk supplies.

Feed cost management is becoming increasingly critical. Some are locking in protein costs where possible, others are adjusting rations to optimize for the new cost structure. The key is understanding that this isn’t a temporary disruption — it’s a fundamental shift that requires strategic adaptation.

What’s fascinating to watch is how the operations that are thriving aren’t necessarily the biggest or the newest. They’re the ones who adapted their thinking first. They’re looking at butterfat numbers, optimizing protein efficiency, and treating their fresh cow management as a profit center rather than just another monthly expense.

The Export Story That’s Keeping Things Together

The key aspect of structural market changes is that they create both risks and opportunities. Yes, the current margin environment is brutal. However, the fundamental supply and demand dynamics setting up for late 2025 and into 2026 appear genuinely constructive for producers who position themselves strategically.

Export demand remains incredibly robust — Mexico alone accounts for over 50% of our NDM exports[1], and demand for milk powder blends in Southeast Asia continues to grow. That export strength is putting a floor under the powder complex, which is supporting Class IV prices.

Domestically, the demand picture is mixed but not terrible. Food service recovery continues to outpace retail, which explains why we’re seeing barrel premiums over blocks. The broader food service industry is holding up better than many people expected. What’s particularly noteworthy is how this barrel-block spread directly affects the weighted average cheese price that determines Class III values.

***Price trends for key dairy products from July 14 to July 18, 2025, showing slight declines in butter, cheese, and whey, with nonfat dry milk holding steady***

From industry observations, the fresh cow market is also telling an interesting story — operations that can maintain steady calvings through this tough period are positioning themselves well for when milk premiums return.

Bottom Line: The Three Things You Need to Do This Week

Look, I can’t stress this enough — run your numbers on feed costs as a percentage of milk revenue. If you’re pushing above 60%, you need protection strategies in place. Period. Don’t wait for costs to moderate because the structural drivers suggest they won’t.

Second, audit your risk management strategy against your actual milk check structure. Ensure that any DRP coverage accurately reflects how your revenue is actually generated, including class utilization, regional factors, and component values. Don’t hedge Class III risk if Class IV accounts for half of your revenue stream. That’s just throwing money away.

Third, start thinking about this challenging period as an opportunity rather than just surviving. Producers who use sophisticated financial planning to bridge the current difficulties will be able to capture value when milk prices rise, rewarding the survivors.

The market transition is happening whether we’re ready or not. The question isn’t whether margins will improve — the futures curve suggests they will. The question is whether you’ll be positioned strategically when they do.

What strikes me most about this whole situation is how it’s separating operations based on management sophistication. The dairy industry is evolving rapidly, and producers who adapt their strategic thinking to match this evolution will be the ones writing the success stories when we look back on this period.

The evidence suggests a fundamental re-evaluation of how we approach profitability in this business. Are you adapting your approach accordingly? Because from what I’m seeing in the data and talking to producers across the country, the operations that make these adjustments now are going to be the ones still milking strong in 2026 and beyond.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Financial Managment

Tags : dairy profit margin, dairy risk management, feed cost management, milk pricing

EU Dairy Farmers Boost Milk Production While Dutch Farmers Face Decline: What This Means for Milk Prices

Friday, August 30th, 2024

EU dairy farmers boost milk production, but Dutch farmers see a decline. What does this mean for milk prices and your farm’s future?

Summary: As we delve into the first half of 2024, the landscape of milk production within the European Union reveals a complex mix of growth and decline. Overall, the EU’s dairy farmers have produced 1.0 percent more milk than last year’s last year, with Poland and France leading the charge. Conversely, countries like Ireland and the Netherlands are experiencing notable decreases in milk output, mirroring trends in other global dairy markets such as Argentina and Uruguay. Dutch farmers experienced a 3% drop in milk output in July, and the total milk volume is 1.6% lower over the first seven months of 2024, affecting milk pricing and market dynamics. Meanwhile, European milk prices surged 8 percent in July 2024, reflecting a volatile yet dynamic market environment. This multifaceted scenario prompts us to examine the intricacies behind these regional fluctuations and their broader implications for dairy farmers worldwide. Australia stands out in this global context, with a notable 3% increase in milk production, further influencing market dynamics.

EU dairy farmers produced 1.0% more milk in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023.
Poland and France significantly contributed to the increase in EU milk production.
Ireland and the Netherlands saw notable declines in milk output.
Global milk production trends show declines in Argentina, Uruguay, and the US, contrasting with growth in Australia.
Dutch milk output decreased by 3% in July and is 1.6% lower over the first seven months of 2024 than last year.
European milk prices rose 8% in July 2024, indicating a volatile market environment.
The fluctuations in milk production across regions have broader implications for global dairy markets and farmers.

European dairy farmers, milk production, European Union, Poland, France, Dutch farmers, milk output, milk pricing, market dynamics, pricing tactics, export potential, manufacturers, larger market, production, EU dairy output, Ireland, challenges, Netherlands, regional trends, worldwide trends, Australia, milk volume, milk prices, opportunities, profitability, farm management, veterinarian checkups, diet, cow habitats, technology, innovation, feed quality, climate change, grazing conditions, feed sources, agronomists, fodder systems, forage systems, weather patterns, sustain milk production levels.

Why are European dairy farmers increasing output while Dutch farmers are declining? In the first six months of 2024, EU dairy farmers produced 1% more milk than the previous year, with Poland and France leading the growth. In contrast, Dutch farmers face a 3% drop in milk output in July. Understanding these conflicting patterns is critical for anybody working in the dairy business since they directly influence milk pricing and overall market dynamics. This disparity may affect anything from pricing tactics to export potential. Staying ahead requires manufacturers to comprehend the larger market, locally and worldwide, and keep up with their production. So, what is driving these developments, and how can you remain competitive in such a turbulent market?

The Dynamic Landscape of EU Dairy Production: Comparing Growth and Decline

In the intricate fabric of European Union dairy output, the first half of 2024 has woven a story of moderate but significant rise. The collective efforts of dairy farmers throughout the EU have resulted in a 1% rise in milk production compared to last year, showcasing a region-wide resilience to enhance milk supply despite various local challenges.

Poland has performed remarkably in this trend, contributing significantly to the EU’s total results. In June alone, Polish dairy producers increased output by an astonishing 4%, considerably increasing the EU’s total results. France also played a key role, with its production increasing substantially in June. Germany, a dairy production powerhouse, reported a tiny but encouraging increase compared to June 2023, adding to the total growth.

However, the success story is not universal throughout the continent. Ireland’s dairy industry has faced challenges, with June output falling by 1%. These challenges could be attributed to [specific factors such as weather conditions, feed expenses, or government policies]. Though this reduction is an improvement over prior months’ steeper declines, it contrasts sharply with improvements witnessed in other important dairy-producing countries.

Global Milk Production: A Story of Interconnected Declines and Surprising Growth

Milk production in the Netherlands is declining significantly, mirroring regional and worldwide trends. Dutch dairy producers witnessed a 3% decrease in July compared to the previous year. Over the first seven months of 2024, total milk volume is 1.6 percent lower.

This declining tendency isn’t limited to the Netherlands. Several major dairy-exporting nations throughout the world are facing similar issues. For example, Argentina’s milk production dropped 7% in June, while Uruguay’s plummeted 13%. The United States likewise recorded a 2% reduction in milk output over the same time.

In contrast, Australia is an anomaly, with a 3% increase in milk output, breaking the global declining trend. Such variances illustrate the many variables influencing dairy output across locations, emphasizing the significance of resilience and adaptation in the dairy farming business.

Rising Milk Prices: An Industry in Flux and What It Means for You

Milk production changes are significantly influencing milk prices across the European Union. The 8% rise in milk prices in July 2024 over the same month in 2023 is strong evidence of this trend. When milk production declines, like in the Netherlands and Ireland, supply tightens, resulting in higher prices. This price rise is also influenced by [specific factors such as market demand or government policies].

Furthermore, the comparison of EDF and ZuivelNL milk pricing demonstrates this tendency. In July, most firms saw a rise in milk prices, with just a handful holding prices steady and one reporting a decrease. This reflects a more significant, industry-wide trend toward higher milk pricing, mainly owing to changing production levels.

Understanding these patterns can help dairy producers negotiate the market more effectively. Are you ready to adjust to the changes? Whether aiming to increase output or save expenses, remaining aware and agile will be critical in these uncertain times.

What’s Behind the Fluctuations in Regional Milk Production?

Have you ever wondered why certain places see a surge in milk production while others lag? When studying these different patterns, several variables come into play. Weather conditions are a crucial factor. Unfavorable weather may disrupt feed supplies and cow health, affecting milk output. On the other hand, favorable weather conditions might increase output rates. Have you recently faced any weather-related issues on your farm?

Feed expenses are also an important consideration. Rising feed costs discourage farmers from retaining big herds, reducing milk yield. Have you seen any swings in feed prices, and how have they impacted your operations?

Government policies also have a huge impact. Regulations governing environmental standards, animal welfare, and trade regulations might result in higher expenses or operational adjustments that may help or impede milk production. Have recent legislative changes in your nation affected your farm?

Market demand plays a pivotal role in shaping manufacturing decisions. Farmers are more likely to optimize productivity when milk prices are high. Conversely, low pricing might inhibit output, leading to reductions. Understanding and adapting to current market demand can empower your manufacturing strategy.

The Intricate Dance of Milk Production Trends: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges

Dairy producers face both possibilities and problems as milk production patterns shift throughout the EU and worldwide. Higher milk prices, such as the 8% rise in July 2024, may significantly improve a farmer’s bottom line. This price rise offers a cushion to withstand rising manufacturing costs, and promises improved profitability. But remember the other side: sustaining or increasing output levels amidst variable supply is no simple task.

For many farmers, effectively managing their farms is critical to navigating these changes. Given the reported decreases in areas such as the Netherlands and Ireland, the focus should be on improving herd health and milk output. Regular veterinarian checkups, adequate diet, and stress-free cow habitats are essential. Adopting technology to improve herd management may simplify many of these operations.

Consider using data to track cow performance and anticipate any health concerns before they worsen. Automated milking systems, precise feeding methods, and real-time data analytics may all provide significant information. This proactive strategy not only assures consistent output but also improves the general health of your cattle.

Innovation in feed quality should be considered. Climate change impacts grazing conditions and feed quality; thus, diversifying feed sources to include nutrient-dense choices will assist in sustaining milk production levels. Collaborate with agronomists to investigate alternate fodder or forage systems tolerant to shifting weather patterns.

Finally, developing a supportive community around dairy farming is critical. Networking with other farmers via local and regional dairy groups, attending industry conferences, and participating in cooperative ventures may provide emotional and practical assistance. Sharing information and resources contributes to developing a resilient and adaptable agricultural community that meets current and future problems.

Although increasing milk prices provides a glimpse of optimism and possible profit, the route to steady and expanded output requires planning and competent management. Dairy producers can successfully navigate these turbulent seas and secure a sustainable future for their farms by concentrating on herd health, adopting technology, optimizing feed techniques, and developing communities.

The Bottom Line

As we’ve negotiated the changing terrain of EU dairy production, it’s become evident that regional discrepancies are distinctively influencing the business. The extreme disparities between nations such as Poland, which is increasing, and the Netherlands, which is declining, underscore the global dairy market’s complexity and interdependence. Furthermore, although some areas are suffering a slump, others, such as Australia, are seeing growth that defies global trends. European milk prices have risen during these developments, creating both possibilities and problems for dairy producers.

Today’s challenge is adjusting to the dairy industry’s altering trends. Staying informed and active with industry changes is critical for navigating this volatile market. As trends shift, your ability to adapt proactively will decide your success. Maintain industry awareness, embrace change, and prosper in uncertainty.

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Categories : Dairy Markets

June’s Shocking Dairy Cow Culling Plummet: Essential Insights

Wednesday, July 31st, 2024

Find out what caused the massive drop in dairy cow culling this June and how it could impact your farm. Are you ready for the shifts in the dairy market?

Summary: Dairy cow culling has seen a 30% decline in June, raising concerns among farmers about milk pricing and herd management tactics. Historical culling rates have fluctuated, with producers increasing culling during economic slumps or low milk prices to save money or reducing culling to preserve herd size and optimize output when milk prices are high. Understanding these trends helps farmers make more educated herd management choices, maintaining the sustainability and profitability of their enterprises. The decline in culling rates is attributed to improved herd management practices, market demand changes, and advancements in veterinary care. Farmers are experiencing relief and new operational issues, with culling down 14.5% from last year as of mid-July. Financially, lower culling rates often lead to cheaper replacement expenses, but these savings are offset by the need for improved herd management to sustain production levels in older herds. The decline in culling can last due to factors like market demand, import activity, and global and local market stability. To adapt, focus on herd health, adopt preventive measures, improve breeding programs, and make smart financial planning.

Dairy cow culling has decreased by 30% in June, impacting milk pricing and herd management strategies.
Historical fluctuations in culling rates correspond to economic conditions and milk price changes.
Improved herd management practices, market demand changes, and advancements in veterinary care contribute to reduced culling rates.
While lower culling rates slash replacement costs, maintaining productivity in older herds poses new challenges.
The 14.5% decline in culling as of mid-July suggests a continuing trend influenced by market and environmental factors.
Farmers should prioritize herd health, adopt preventive measures, enhance breeding programs, and implement smart financial planning to navigate the shifting culling landscape.

In June, dairy cow culling dropped by an astounding 30%, shaking up the dairy business and sparking innumerable concerns among farmers. This significant reduction is more than a statistic; it represents a change that might affect everything from milk pricing to herd management tactics. Understanding why this trend is occurring and what it means for your farm could make all the difference in your future planning, as the significant decrease in dairy cow culling necessitates re-evaluating herd maintenance and production strategies, pointing to a possible short-term anomaly or a longer-term industry shift.

Month	Dairy Cows Culled (Head)	Change from Previous Year (%)	Milk Production (Million Pounds)
January	245,000	-8%	17,285
February	230,000	-10%	16,740
March	210,000	-12%	18,110
April	208,000	-9%	17,500
May	189,000	-15%	19,225
June	186,400	-30%	18,930

Shocking 30% Plunge in Dairy Cow Culling: What Does It Mean for Your Farm?

Dairy cow culling is the removal of cows from the dairy herd. This may happen for various reasons, including insufficient milk supply, health problems, limited fertility, or elderly age. It is an important management technique for ensuring the production and general health of the dairy herd. By eliminating underproductive or sick cows, farmers may concentrate resources on cows that contribute more efficiently to milk production.

Historically, culling rates have fluctuated significantly. For example, during an economic slump or low milk prices, producers may increase culling to save money. Conversely, when milk prices are high, there may be a need to reduce culling rates to preserve herd size and optimize output. Statistical data from the last few decades show how these rates have fluctuated in reaction to market situations, feed prices, and advances in dairy technology. As of the week ending July 13, 1,481,400 heads had been culled, representing a 14.5% decline over the previous year.

Understanding these trends allows farmers to make more educated herd management choices, maintaining the sustainability and profitability of their enterprises. With developments in dairy farming practices and improved health monitoring systems, culling has become more deliberate to achieve optimum herd performance.

June Ushers in Unprecedented Drop in Dairy Cow Culling: What the USDA’s Latest Figures Reveal

The USDA’s most recent data show some eye-opening results for June. Dairy cow culling fell dramatically, with just 1,481,400 heads slaughtered, a 14.5% decrease from the previous year (USDA). The total dairy cow population remained stable at 9.335 million head compared to prior trends. These numbers highlight the surprising shifts in market dynamics since we typically anticipated a greater culling rate during this time.

Dramatic Decline in Culling Rates: Unpacking the Key Factors

Month	Dairy Production (Million lbs)	Call Rates (Head)
January 2024	18,200	250,000
February 2024	17,900	230,000
March 2024	18,300	220,000
April 2024	18,000	210,000
May 2024	18,100	191,800
June 2024	17,800	186,400

There are a host of factors contributing to this noteworthy decline in dairy cow culling rates. Let’s break it down:

Improved Herd Management Practices: Optimizing herd management procedures is a key component contributing to lower culling rates. Farmers are becoming more skilled at nutrition planning and reproductive methods, resulting in healthier and more productive cattle. Targeted nutrition and improved breeding strategies are dramatically reducing health concerns in herds.
Changes in Market Demand: Market conditions have changed, affecting culling choices. For example, a growing demand for dairy products such as yogurt and sour cream encourages producers to keep more enormous herds to fulfill demand. Yogurt was the third most promoted conventional dairy item and the top organic dairy commodity, demonstrating strong market demand.
Advancements in Veterinary Care: Veterinary treatment has evolved dramatically, providing more effective preventative and therapeutic options for common cattle illnesses. This innovation minimizes the need to cull cows due to health concerns. According to the University of Wisconsin’s Dairy Cattle Health Program, producing more effective immunizations and treatments has improved overall herd health.

Reducing dairy cow culling rates requires effective herd management, market-driven choices, and excellent veterinarian care. These developments help both individual farmers and the dairy sector as a whole.

How Slashing Dairy Cow Culling Rates Impacts Your Wallet, Herd Health, and Milk Output

Month	Milk Price ($/cwt)	Feed Cost ($/cwt)	Margin ($/cwt)
January 2024	19.50	11.25	8.25
February 2024	19.00	11.00	8.00
March 2024	18.75	11.50	7.25
April 2024	18.50	11.75	6.75
May 2024	18.25	11.80	6.45
June 2024	18.00	12.00	6.00

The fall in dairy cow culling rates has several ramifications for dairy producers, including financial stability, herd health, and milk production levels. Farmers are experiencing relief as well as new operational issues, with culling down dramatically (14.5 percent from last year as of mid-July).

Financial Implications
Financially, a lower culling rate often translates into cheaper replacement expenses. According to a well-known dairy industry expert, farmers pay less for new replacements when fewer cows are killed, which may result in significant long-term cost savings. This is especially useful in a year with volatile feed costs and other economic stresses. However, these savings are offset by the requirement for improved herd management to sustain production levels in an older herd.
Herd Health
Maintaining excellent herd health becomes critical since older cows may need more frequent health monitoring. Vet expenditures have risen somewhat since older cows need more care, but the savings from not purchasing young heifers balance this. Our elder cows are like family members on our farm; when appropriately cared for, they provide high yields. This attitude was reflected in a recent industry analysis, which emphasized the need to combine elder cow care with farm productivity.
Milk Production
The effects on milk production vary. Some states, such as Wisconsin, recorded an increase in output—by 25 million pounds. Other states, such as Minnesota, had a tiny 1.0% dip. The disparity emphasizes the importance of regional management strategies and feed quality. An elderly herd may be just as productive if adequately managed. Focusing on diet and getting frequent health checks is critical for maintaining milk supply.

This change in culling procedures creates both possibilities and obligations for dairy producers. While the first financial relief is evident, the commitment to keeping an older herd healthy and productive emphasizes the continuous need for adaptive management practices.

Can the Decline in Dairy Cow Culling Last? Key Market Trends to Watch

Market Trend	Details
Smaller Milking Herd	The national herd size continues shrinking, influencing milk production and culling rates.
Availability of Replacement Heifers	The limited supply of replacement heifers is a critical factor affecting culling decisions.
Milk Income Margins	Improved milk income margins, albeit slight, are contributing to reduced culling rates.
Profitability of Milk Production	Declining profitability since early 2023, with lower farm-gate prices and high input costs, remains a significant concern.
Effects of El Nino	Weather patterns like El Nino are impacting milk production and culling decisions.
Seasonal Declines in Milk Output	Milk output is showing seasonal declines, particularly in Western Europe.
Temporary Milk Delivery Increases	Temporary gains in milk deliveries early in 2024 are not expected to be sustained, influencing market dynamics.

Several variables may impact whether the drop in dairy cow culling will continue. One crucial factor to consider is market demand for dairy products. According to the USDA, Class I demand is now in a seasonal slowdown due to school closures, but it is expected to recover once schools reopen. Another area to examine is import activity from important dairy customers, such as China, where whey imports were up 6.2%, perhaps reflecting higher worldwide demand (USDA).

Experts from the National Milk Producers Federation predict that if the milk price and production cost trends continue, culling rates and total herd numbers will experience modest changes but remain constant (NMPF). This is dependent on global and local market stability, especially in cheese demand, which is stated to be stable to lighter, with availability varying from balanced to tighter (USDA).

This situation presents opportunities for improved herd health via less aggressive culling and more targeted management of productive cows. However, issues such as sustaining profitability with shifting feed and operating expenses persist. Innovative feed management and selective breeding strategies may be critical in managing these challenges.

Adapting Your Strategies in Response to the Shifting Dairy Culling Landscape

As these dramatic shifts in culling rates reshape the dairy landscape, it’s crucial to pivot your strategies to safeguard and optimize your operation:

Optimize Herd Management

Focus on Herd Health: Prioritize preventive health measures. Regular veterinarian check-ups and a thorough immunization program may help maintain your herd healthy and avoid the need for culling.
Breeding Strategies: Given the difficulties of obtaining replacements, improving your breeding program is critical. Consider adopting sophisticated reproductive technology, such as sexed semen, to boost female offspring.

Smart Financial Planning

Budget for Uncertainty: Culling rates might fluctuate, influencing cash flow. Create a financial buffer to accommodate unforeseen changes in market dynamics.
Cost Analysis: Consider the cost-benefit of retaining lower-yield cows vs the cost of feeding them, mainly when feed costs fluctuate. Use financial simulation tools to forecast various eventualities.

Stay Informed About Market Trends

Subscribe to Market Reports: Keeping up with industry publications and reports can provide valuable insights. Websites like TheBullvine.com offer timely updates and analysis.
Engage in Community Forums: Join dairy farmer associations and online communities to stay connected with peers and industry experts. Participate in farm forums for real-time discussions and advice.

Adapting to fluctuating culling rates requires innovative herd management, careful financial planning, and attention to market trends. Use these practical recommendations to guide your dairy company through these changing times.

The Bottom Line

The dairy business is seeing a dramatic transformation, with dairy cow culling rates dropping by 30% unexpectedly, providing farmers with both difficulties and opportunities. We discovered that this drop is driven by a smaller milking herd, scarce and expensive replacement heifers, and somewhat increased milk-earning margins. Farmers must wisely manage their herds, strategically plan their budgets, and closely monitor market trends to negotiate these changing dynamics effectively. Keeping up with industry trends and reacting to them is necessary and critical for prospering in the face of uncertainty. As you look forward, remember, “The key to success is not predicting the future, but preparing for it.” How can you prepare now to take advantage of tomorrow’s opportunities? Use this opportunity to develop a plan that tackles urgent difficulties while positioning your farm for long-term success. Embrace the changing environment with confidence and adaptation.

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Categories : Dairy Markets

June Milk Production Down by 0.8%: USDA Report Highlights Dairy Trends

Tuesday, July 23rd, 2024

Explore the reasons behind the 0.8% decline in June milk production according to the USDA’s latest report. Uncover the evolving trends in the dairy industry and identify which states excel in milk yield per cow. Find out more.

Attention to our esteemed dairy farmers and industry stakeholders: Your role is pivotal in understanding and addressing the impact of diminishing milk production. The most recent USDA data shows a significant drop in milk production for June, indicating possible difficulties and possibilities for the dairy industry. We want to deconstruct these facts, explain their consequences, and thoroughly examine what this trend implies for you—according to the USDA, milk output in June declined by eight-tenths of a percent from the same month in 2023. Your understanding and proactive response to these trends are crucial for the industry’s future.

Join us as we delve into the following critical points:

June Production Figures: Examining the 18 billion pounds of milk produced by the 24 central dairy states, which include major dairy-producing states such as California, Wisconsin, and Idaho. These states collectively account for a significant portion of the country’s milk production, making their production figures crucial for understanding the industry’s trends and dynamics. Revised Figures: The USDA’s updated May report shows 18.8 billion pounds of milk, also down eight-tenths of a percent from the previous year.
Quarterly Trends: Analysis of the total 2nd quarter production, which also saw a decrease.
Production per Cow: A look at the average milk yield per cow and changes from the previous year.
Herd Numbers: A snapshot of cow population trends across critical states.

This trend is important to dairy producers since it affects milk pricing, feed costs, and farm profitability. Understanding the entire scale of these manufacturing shifts will enable you to adjust your strategy better, prepare for the future, and minimize any hazards.

Month	Total Production (Billion Pounds)	Year-over-Year Change (%)	Number of Cows (Million Head)	Production per Cow (Pounds)
April	19.1	-0.8	8.88	2,153
May	18.8	-0.8	8.88	2,117
June	18.0	-0.8	8.88	2,025

June’s Milk Production Data Reveals Significant Fluctuations in the Dairy Industry

The June milk production statistics indicate considerable swings in the dairy business, with the 24 central dairy-producing states generating 18 billion pounds of milk. This statistic represents a production amount and an eight-tenths of a percent decrease from the previous year, a significant change that underscores the need for adaptive techniques in dairy production to manage these negative trends.

USDA’s May Report Revision: A Critical Reassessment in the Dairy Sector

The USDA’s amendment of the May report makes a significant change, highlighting crucial changes in the dairy business. Initially published data have been amended to reflect a production volume of 18.8 billion pounds for May, a considerable fall of eight-tenths of a percent from the previous year. This modification more accurately depicts current market trends and shows the complex variables influencing milk production quantities throughout the country.

Second Quarter Analysis: A Reflection of Shifting Paradigms in Dairy Production

The statistics from the second quarter reveal that the dairy business has undergone a significant transition. Total milk output in April, May, and June was 57.5 billion pounds, down 0.8% from the previous year. This declining tendency is more than just a statistical footnote; it is an essential signal of overall dairy industry developments. Dairy producers face persistent problems, including variable herd numbers and changing market needs, as seen by their steady fall over three crucial months.

Subtle Shifts in Cow Productivity: Unveiling the Underlying Dynamics

The average milk output per cow in the 24 core dairy-producing states reveals a complex dynamic in the industry. This year’s yield per cow is 2,025 pounds, a noteworthy eight-pound reduction from the prior year. Despite its seeming tiny size, this drop might suggest underlying concerns that need additional research. Feed quality, cow health, and environmental circumstances may significantly influence this decline. Understanding these factors is critical since even modest productivity changes may dramatically impact the dairy industry’s total production and economic stability. This minor but essential shift emphasizes the need for continuous examination and modification in dairy farming operations to maintain long-term production and industry development. Your role in this continuous improvement is crucial.

January to June: Observing Subtle Shifts in Dairy Cow Populations Reflecting Stability Amidst Minor Fluctuations

From January to June, we saw small changes in the number of cows, indicating a degree of stability despite slight swings. January had an initial total of 8.87 million heads, which increased slightly to 8.88 million by February. This little increase was followed by a modest fall in March and May before reverting to the February record of 8.88 million in June. Such little changes indicate an underlying consistency in the cow population, with the 8.88 million head in June as a focal point for the period’s relative stability.

Regional Powerhouses: Examining California, Wisconsin, and Idaho’s Dominance in Dairy Cow Populations

When we get the details, California stands out for its vast dairy cow herd, which is 1.7 million. This towering monument symbolizes California’s dominance in the dairy sector, establishing a high production efficiency and volume standard. Wisconsin is a close rival, with 1.2 million head, confirming its position as a critical player in dairy production. Meanwhile, Idaho’s 668,000 headcount demonstrates the state’s significant contribution and the judicious dispersion of dairy businesses around the country. These statistics depict the concentrated centers of dairy activity, each contributing distinctively to the overall topography of the United States dairy industry.

Milk Yield Efficiency: A Comparative Hierarchy Among Leading States

Examining cow numbers shows a distinct hierarchy, with California leading the way with an astonishing 1.7 million cattle. This dominating number unabashedly places the state at the pinnacle of the dairy production landscape, highlighting its significant contribution to the industry. Following in its footsteps is Wisconsin, which has 1.2 million cattle. This large amount confirms the state’s position as a critical participant in the dairy business. Despite following behind, Idaho retains a considerable presence with 668 thousand head of cattle, preserving its position among the top dairy-producing states. These numbers, which represent strategic breeding and resource allocation, give a glimpse of the overall dynamics within the key dairy-producing areas of the United States.

The Bottom Line

June’s results show a minor but noticeable decrease in milk output, indicating a continuing trend in the dairy business. Cow production is declining, while cow numbers have changed little. The updated May report and second-quarter analysis confirm this little reduction. In June, 18 billion pounds of milk were produced, an average of 2,025 pounds per cow. The dairy cow population remained stable but fluctuated between January and June. California, Wisconsin, and Idaho have the most cows, but Michigan has the highest per-cow productivity. These findings underscore the importance of your adaptability and proactive steps in maintaining the industry’s viability. Your actions will be critical in shaping the industry’s future.

Key Takeaways:

June milk production decreased by eight-tenths of a percent compared to the previous year.
The 24 major dairy-producing states produced 18 billion pounds of milk in June.
May’s milk production numbers were revised to 18.8 billion pounds, reflecting an eight-tenths percent decrease year-over-year.
The total milk production for Q2 (April, May, June) also dropped by eight-tenths of a percent, totaling 57.5 billion pounds.
The average milk production per cow in the major states was 2,025 pounds, which is eight pounds less than the previous year.
Dairy cow populations have shown slight fluctuations, maintaining an overall stability from January to June.
California, Wisconsin, and Idaho lead in the number of dairy cows, with California housing the most at 1.7 million head.
Michigan reported the highest milk yield per cow, averaging 2,290 pounds per cow.

Summary:

The USDA’s latest data shows a significant drop in milk production in June, affecting milk pricing, feed costs, and farm profitability. The dairy industry faces persistent problems, including variable herd numbers and changing market needs. The second quarter analysis revealed a significant transition in the dairy industry, with total milk output being 57.5 billion pounds, down 0.8% from the previous year. Cow productivity has also changed, with this year’s yield per cow being 2,025 pounds, an eight-pound reduction from the prior year. From January to June, small changes in the number of cows reflected a degree of stability, with California having a vast dairy cow herd with 1.7 million head, Wisconsin having 1.2 million head, and Idaho having 668,000 head. In conclusion, the dairy industry’s future is influenced by cow production and cow numbers, with actions being critical in shaping its future.

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Categories : Dairy Industry, Dairy Markets

Stagnation in Opening Milk Prices: Challenges and Insights from Australian Dairy Industry

Tuesday, July 9th, 2024

Explore the reasons behind stagnant milk prices for Australian dairy farmers and understand their impact on farm incomes. Are you informed about the challenges and insights currently shaping the dairy industry?

Many Australian dairy producers continue to face financial challenges amidst rising living costs. Despite this, leading processors like Fonterra Australia, Bega Cheese, and Saputo Dairy Australia have maintained their initial milk pricing at about $8 per kilogram of milk solids by July 1. The Australian dairy sector is grappling with the issue of fixed farm gate rates that threaten farmer incomes. The situation is concerning, especially with the Dairy Code of Conduct’s requirements for minimum pricing by July 1 and milk supply agreements by June 1. The Australian Dairy Products Federation emphasizes the sector’s need to reduce costs for sustainability. The surge in imported dairy goods, driven by years of high local milk costs, underscores the crucial role of strategic planning in navigating market dynamics and ensuring the sustainability of local dairy farms. This situation makes farmers make challenging decisions, such as adhering to current supply agreements or exploring more profitable opportunities.

Ensuring Fair Play: The Dairy Code of Conduct

The Dairy Code of Conduct ensures fairness and transparency in the dairy sector, preventing processors from exploiting farmers. It mandates that every milk processor disclose their milk supply agreements by June 1, providing farmers with clear supply terms to guide their decisions. Processors must also set a minimum price by July 1, ensuring a more stable income for farmers and protecting them from price fluctuations. This regulatory framework is a source of reassurance for farmers, as it helps to maintain the viability of their businesses and the sector and shields them from market volatility.

Market Pressures and the Strategic Necessity of Lower Farm Gate Milk Prices

Current market circumstances have forced farm-gate milk prices far lower. The leading cause is an increase in imported dairy products; imports of these goods will rise 17% by 2022–2023, driving hitherto unheard-of consumption of foreign dairy products. This flood has generated fierce rivalry among local producers, calling for price changes to preserve business viability.

It underlines that setting lower farm gate milk pricing is essential for the long-term survival of the Australian Dairy Products Federation. Managed pricing seeks to guarantee profitability and resistance against market changes. Following historically high milk prices calls for a smart strategy to prevent financial hardship on processors and industry instability. Maintaining Australian dairy products’ competitiveness locally and globally depends on open and calculated pricing.

Imported Dairy Products: A Growing Challenge for Local Farmers

The Australian Dairy Products Federation has been vocal about the challenges posed by the increasing import of dairy products on the local market. The import surge has decreased farm gate milk prices, putting significant strain on local producers. With imports projected to rise by 17% in 2022–2023, Federation CEO Janine Waller noted that over 30% of the 344,000 tons of dairy products consumed in Australia are now of foreign origin. This influx of foreign products has intensified competition among local producers, necessitating price adjustments to maintain business viability.

Ms. Waller underlined the Federation’s commitment to ensuring Australian households have domestically produced dairy products priced reasonably. “We want to ensure Aussie families can continue to enjoy affordable, locally made, and branded milk, cheese, yogurt, butter, and ice cream in their homes,” she said. This attitude emphasizes the Federation’s support of keeping local dairy output viable in the face of global market competition.

The Southern Region’s Milk Price: A Strategic Response to Market Dynamics

As of July 1, the estimated average farm gate milk price in the southern region falls between $7.94 and $8.20/kg MS. This price strikes a strategic balance between market dynamics and local viability. It is up to 14% higher than three years ago despite being lower than the record highs of the last two years. This price point demonstrates the resilience of the dairy sector in the face of market fluctuations. The premium farm gate milk price in Southern Australia, up to 10% higher than the global midpoint price of A$7.43/kg milk solids, is supported by assured minimum pricing and potential reviews. This competitive advantage ensures local stability and underscores Australia’s leadership in the global dairy industry.

This pricing approach helps farmers be stable and emphasizes the need to combine local production incentives with worldwide competitive demands. As world circumstances improve, price changes provide more help and support for the sector’s dedication to farmer sustainability and worldwide competitiveness.

Striking a Balance: Navigating Domestic Needs and Export Ambitions in the Dairy Industry

With over thirty percent of milk output aimed at international markets, Australia’s dairy processors have always stressed exporting. Since seventy percent of Australian milk is eaten locally, EastAUSmilk president Joe Bradley questions this emphasis. Bradley contends that prioritizing exports might lower farm gate milk prices, hurting local farmers. He underlines how pricing should be much influenced by the home market, where a third of the milk is in milk bottles. The strategic choices of Australia’s dairy processors are greatly influenced by this conflict between export targets and local demands, determining the sector’s course.

Strategic Reassessment: Maximizing Returns in a Competitive Dairy Market

The state of the economy right now lets farmers rethink their plans and optimize profits. Farmers should first carefully go over and weigh contracts from many processors. In a competitive market, shopping for the best terms could result in better conditions. Second, farmers may think about going back over their supply curves. Although changing calving seasons will better match processor price incentives and market demand, a thorough cost-benefit study is essential. One has to assess elements like extra feed, labor expenses, and herd health. Lastly, keeping informed using the milk value portal of the dairy sector offers insightful analysis of historical price data and market trends. This information enables producers to negotiate the challenging dairy market and make wise choices.

Navigating Market Dynamics: Strategic Measures for Dairy Farmers

Farmers have to take deliberate actions to negotiate these problematic circumstances properly. Profitability may be significantly changed by looking around for better terms. Examine the offers of many CPUs with an eye on minimum price guarantees, incentive systems, and possible price reviews depending on the state of the worldwide market.

Supply curve adjustments may yield success. However, changing calving plans should be carefully examined for expenses and advantages. Feed availability, labor, and animal health should be considered to guarantee reasonable financial and operational effects.

Use tools like the Milk Value Portal of the Dairy Industry to get open access to milk price trends. This instrument provides information on past and present pricing, supporting wise judgments. Dairy producers who remain proactive and knowledgeable will be able to grab new possibilities and effectively negotiate changes in the market.

The Bottom Line

Opening milk prices continue at around $8/kg of milk solids, which presents financial difficulties for farmers even with anticipation for better returns. This year emphasizes the careful equilibrium dairy producers maintain among changing market circumstances and fixed milk prices. While the Dairy Code of Conduct requires minimum price disclosures by July 1, economic considerations have resulted in lower pricing than in the previous season. Leading companies such as Fonterra Australia, Bega Cheese, and Saputo Dairy Australia are negotiating home and foreign market challenges. The main lesson is obvious: farmers must remain strategic and knowledgeable, using all the instruments and market knowledge to maximize their activities. Profitability and resilience depend on flexibility and wise judgment. To guarantee local dairy products stay mainstays in Australian homes, all stakeholders must help the agricultural backbone of our country. Farmers, processors, and industry champions must work together actively to enable the industry to flourish.

Key Takeaways:

Fonterra Australia, Bega Cheese, and Saputo Dairy Australia have maintained their opening price of approximately $8/kg of milk solids by July 1.
The Australian Dairy Products Federation highlighted that the lower farm gate milk price this year is aimed at preserving the dairy industry’s viability.
The Dairy Code of Conduct requires all processors to publish their milk supply agreements by June 1 and set a minimum price by July 1.
Except for Norco in northern NSW, major processors have offered lower milk prices compared to last season, impacting farmers’ incomes negatively.
A rise in imported dairy products, which surged by 17% during the 2022-2023 period, contributes to nearly 30% of Australia’s dairy consumption.
The estimated weighted average farm gate milk price in the southern region ranges between $7.94 to $8.20/kg of milk solids as of July 1.
Despite the reduction, current milk prices remain up to 14% higher than three years ago and up to 10% higher than the midpoint price in New Zealand.
Farmers are encouraged to utilize the dairy industry’s milk value portal for transparent data on farm gate milk pricing and market trends.
Cheese exports from Australia are increasing in both value and tonnages, although skim milk and whole milk powders show a decline compared to last year.
On average, about 30% of Australian milk production is allocated to exports, while the majority is sold domestically.
Farmers not under contract should compare offers from various processors to secure the best prices for their milk.

Summary:

Australian dairy producers are facing financial challenges due to rising living costs, but leading processors like Fonterra Australia, Bega Cheese, and Saputo Dairy Australia have maintained their initial milk pricing at $8 per kilogram of milk solids by July 1. This situation is concerning as the Dairy Code of Conduct mandates minimum pricing and milk supply agreements by June 1. The increasing import of dairy products on the local market has put significant strain on local producers, with over 30% of the 344,000 tons consumed in Australia now of foreign origin. The Australian Dairy Products Federation emphasizes the need to reduce costs for sustainability and maintain business viability in the face of global market competition. To maximize returns in a competitive dairy market, farmers should carefully weigh contracts from many processors, consider going back over their supply curves, and use tools like the Milk Value Portal of the Dairy Industry to get open access to milk price trends.

Learn more:

Categories : Dairy Industry

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Archive for milk pricing

Fonterra commits $75M to butter while powder markets collapse 39%. Smart producers already pivoting: 10-15% profit gains documented.

Understanding the Strategic Shift Behind the Investment

What This Means for Component-Focused Production

The Powder Market Reality Driving Change

Practical Steps for Farmers: The 18-Month Transition Strategy

Immediate Actions (Next 60-90 Days)

Short-Term Strategy (6-18 Months)

Long-Term Positioning (18+ Months)

Understanding Regional Variations

The Risks We Should Monitor—And How to Prepare

Perspectives from Progressive Operations

Essential Lessons for Dairy Farmers

Looking Forward: Your Strategic Path

Key Takeaways:

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Not every deduction on a milk check is math—some are politics. Here’s how U.S. farmers lost $337 million without casting a single vote

How a Technical Rule Became a Real Pay Cut

Regional Impact Summary (June–September 2025)

Who Cast the Vote That Changed It?

Why Voting Reform Comes First

The Transparency Gap That Shows Up Every Month

Looking North: What Canadian Quotas Tell Us About Voice

Where These Reforms Stand Now

What It Means for Different Dairies

Co-ops That Are Already Leading

Five Things Producers Can Do Now

The Bottom Line

Key Takeaways:

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$29.2B dairy empire bought your breeding future while you celebrated – 384 court violations expose the scam

The $29.2 Billion Shadow Empire Controlling Your Breeding Decisions

The Contract Manipulation That Australian Courts Actually Documented

The Genetic Data Trap Most Guys Miss Completely

The Regulatory Breakdown That Made This Corporate Heist Legal

The Farmer Organization Silence That Reveals Financial Capture

The Brutal Math: What’s Actually Happening to American Dairy

The Three-Tier System That’s Already Here

The Asia-Pacific Growth Being Captured for Corporate Shareholders

What Your Individual Defense Strategy Can’t Actually Fix

Your Last-Ditch Defense Playbook – Though It Feels Like Bringing a Knife to a Gunfight

The Bottom Line: Individual Strategies Have Real Limits

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Think the Fed rate cut’s good news? We’ve got data that says otherwise. Your dairy needs to hear this…

The Unemployment Warning

Scale Advantages Keep Compounding

What’s Really Happening Out There

The Network Promise Reality

The Component Silver Lining

What This Means for Your Operation

The Bottom Line

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When times got tough, Jim Mulhern fought to keep dairy farmers afloat—his legacy is measured in seasons survived, not speeches made.

The Thing About Legacy in Dairy

Compromise Isn’t a Dirty Word—It’s the Dairy Way

Living Risk—Not Just Avoiding It

FMMO Reform—Messy, But Worth It

Stewardship—Not Buzz, Just How You Farm

The Unfinished Battles: Immigration and Trade

Labels, School Milk, and the Small Battles

Passing the Torch—Not Just Polished Shoes on the Boardroom Floor

The Bottom Line—From the Parlor to the Boardroom

Key Takeaways

Executive Summary

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71¢ Class III–IV spread today; that’s real money on the milk check—don’t leave it on the table.

What moved—and why it matters

Trading mechanics—why cheese felt “real” and butter felt “order-driven”

Global landscape—U.S. butter looks cheap; powder lanes are crowded

Feed and margins—workable, not wild

Forecast anchors—official releases and what the strip is saying

Regional color—Upper Midwest feels the lift first; California minds the butter

What to do now—moves that travel from barn to boardroom

Market voices—how participants read the day

Bottom line—the component mix did the talking

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The protein cost explosion that’s reshaping how we think about profitability… and why smart producers are already positioning for what’s coming next

When Feed Costs Start Calling the Shots

Why the Futures Are Telling a Different Story