Cornell: 90% of herds are exposed, only 20% show symptoms. The invisible 70%? Costing you $434,683/year. Time to rethink everything
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A Minnesota dairy farmer’s third H5N1 outbreak in 14 months—despite perfect biosecurity—isn’t an anomaly anymore. It’s the new normal. Cornell research shows that 90% of herds carry the virus, but only 20% show symptoms, meaning traditional surveillance captures just 21% of the actual disease while farms hemorrhage $434,683 annually. The break-even point sits at 2.38 outbreaks per year, but farms in wildlife corridors now face perpetual reinfection cycles that make profitability mathematically impossible. This isn’t just about H5N1—Spain’s current battle with lumpy skin disease, which jumped containment zones overnight, proves wildlife disease has fundamentally changed the game globally. With U.S. dairy farms projected to plummet from 35,000 to as few as 12,000 by 2035, producers face a stark choice: absorb six-figure annual disease costs through scale or premium markets, or make the rational but painful decision to exit while equity remains. The old paradigm of “prevent and recover” is dead; the new reality demands either expensive adaptation or strategic retreat.

I was talking with a producer from Minnesota the other day, and what he told me really stuck with me. His operation tested positive for H5N1 in July 2024, worked through it, and got cleared by September. Then March 2025 comes around—positive again. They clear that one too, thinking they’re in the clear. September 2025? Third positive in just 14 months. And here’s what gets me—this guy does everything right. Every protocol, every biosecurity measure the vets recommend. Still keeps happening.
You know what’s interesting? Minnesota actually achieved that official “unaffected” status on August 22nd this year. Four consecutive months of negative bulk tank tests across all 1,600 dairies in the state, according to the Board of Animal Health’s surveillance program. So naturally, they reduced testing from monthly to bi-monthly—that’s the standard procedure when you’re disease-free. But within weeks, about two dozen operations were reporting new infections. Makes you think…
And it’s not just us dealing with this. Over in Spain right now, they’re trying to vaccinate 600,000 head of cattle against lumpy skin disease. The Catalan agriculture folks reported the virus jumped 40 kilometers overnight, despite what they called comprehensive containment measures. These aren’t isolated problems anymore—they’re showing us something fundamental about how diseases work when wildlife’s involved.
Here’s what the numbers are telling us:
- 90% of dairy cattle show H5N1 antibody exposure, but only 20% develop symptoms you can actually see
- $434,683 – That’s the annual disease cost for a 500-cow operation with 20% clinical rates
- 2.38 – The magic number of outbreaks per year before you’re losing money
- 21% – What traditional barn walks actually detect of what’s really circulating
Quick Break-Even Calculator: Take your annual profit (before disease) and divide it by $217,341 (the estimated cost for a single outbreak in a 500-cow operation—that’s half the annual cost if you get hit twice). That tells you how many outbreaks you can handle per year. Less than 2? You’re in trouble with annual reinfection.

The Real Financial Picture We’re Looking At
Research from Cornell’s College of Veterinary Medicine, published in September 2025, analyzing H5N1-affected dairy operations, found something that kind of changes everything. Turns out 90% of animals in affected herds show antibody evidence of exposure to H5N1, but only 20% actually look sick. Think about that. For every cow showing symptoms in your barn, there are probably four more carrying the virus that look perfectly fine.

What I’ve found is that traditional surveillance—you know, when the vet walks through looking for sick animals—catches maybe 21% of what’s actually going on. We’re basically operating blind most of the time.
That same Cornell research, along with economic modeling from dairy extension programs at Wisconsin and Minnesota, quantified what this really costs a typical 500-cow Midwest operation:
- You’re looking at about $950 per clinically affected cow over that 60-day acute phase
- Each sick cow drops about 900 kilograms in milk production
- Here’s the kicker—the whole herd typically drops 15% in production for six months after an outbreak
- Add it all up? $434,683 per year with a 20% clinical rate
And you know what? Even if you spend that $40,000 on early-detection systems and rapid-response setups—the kind extension’s been recommending—you might drop your clinical rate from 20% to 15%. Sounds good until you do the math. Your annual cost only drops to $401,012. That’s still an $89,012 loss every year, even after making smart investments.
The break-even math keeps me up at night sometimes. Most operations can handle about 2.38 outbreaks per yearbefore they’re underwater. But if you’re in one of those waterfowl migration corridors—and let’s be honest, many of us in Minnesota and Wisconsin are—you’re probably looking at annual reinfection as the new normal.

What Spain’s Teaching Us Right Now
What’s happening in Spain offers a different perspective on all this. They detected their first lumpy skin disease case on October 1st, did everything by the book—20-kilometer protection zones, 50-kilometer surveillance areas, and immediate culling of infected herds. Standard EU protocols.
By late October, the Spanish agriculture ministry reported they’d culled over 1,500 cattle. But here’s the thing—the virus had already jumped about 40 kilometers, way beyond those protection zones. So, on November 3rd, the European Commission authorized emergency vaccination for 22 Catalan counties. We’re talking 600,000 animals.
What’s telling is how their language has been changing. Early October, Agriculture Minister Òscar Ordeig was saying “emergency measures implemented” and “situation under control.” By mid-October, after six new outbreaks, it shifted to “securing additional vaccine supplies.” Late October? They’re calling for “all Catalan veterinarians to assist.” When government officials say that, you know they’re stretched thin.
Notice what’s missing lately? No timeline for when this ends. No mention of eradication. The word “temporary” has disappeared. Catalonia’s veterinary services say they’ve administered about 100,000 vaccine doses so far, with 250,000 more to come. That’s maybe 58% coverage. But European Food Safety Authority research has shown that you actually need 80-90% coverage to stop the transmission of lumpy skin disease. At 90 animals per day—their current pace—well, do the math.
Understanding Different Perspectives Here
You know, it’s easy to get frustrated with how different groups respond to these challenges, but when you think about it, everyone’s dealing with their own pressures.
Processors need a consistent milk supply to keep plants running. The National Milk Producers Federation’s data shows we’re losing 7-8% of farms each year. Those of us still operating might have more negotiating power, but only if enough farms survive to keep the infrastructure going.
The biosecurity companies? Grand View Research valued that global market at $3.4 billion in 2024, projecting it’ll hit $7.1 billion by 2033. Endemic diseases that require constant management rather than one-time fixes create steady customers. It’s a business reality—can’t really blame them for that.
Government’s in a tough spot, too. Congress approved $31 billion in agricultural aid late last year, which sounds like a lot until you realize USDA’s own assessments show it covers maybe 10% of actual disease losses. State ag departments have to maintain market confidence while dealing with the reality on the ground. That’s a hard balance.
And our rural communities—man, this hits them hard. The Center for Rural Affairs documented last year how each farm closure triggers these cascading effects. School enrollment drops, Main Street businesses close, and property values decline. My kids’ school lost two teachers after three local dairies closed. These communities need us to survive, even when we’re struggling.
What I’ve come to realize is that everyone’s responding to their own situation. The challenge is that what’s best for the industry as a whole might not line up with what’s best for individual families facing their third outbreak in 14 months.
Success Despite the Odds—It’s Possible
Now, I don’t want to paint this as all doom and gloom. Met a producer from South Dakota last month who’s actually making this work. They’ve got about 3,500 cows, have invested heavily in automated monitoring systems, and treat endemic disease like any other operating cost. “We budget $125,000 annually for disease management now,” he told me. “It’s just part of doing business, like feed costs or equipment maintenance.”
On the other end of the spectrum, there’s this 180-cow organic operation in Vermont that’s stayed completely clear. Geographic isolation helps, but they’ve also got premium contracts paying $45 per hundredweight—nearly double conventional prices. Different model, but it works for them.
Practical Approaches That Actually Help

So if you’re dealing with repeated infections, here’s a framework that’s been helpful for some folks I know.
Getting a Handle on Your Real Costs
First thing—and I can’t stress this enough—document what outbreaks actually cost you. Not just the milk dump and vet bills, but also the extended impacts. Track your production for at least six months after. The University of Minnesota Extension has some really good resources for outbreak cost analysis that capture all these hidden costs.
Compare those numbers against your baseline profitability. If reinfection frequency means you’re losing money even in good milk price years, that’s information you need for planning. What I keep hearing from financial advisors is that most of us underestimate those extended impacts—that 15% herd-wide deficit for six months really adds up.
Focusing Where You Have Control
Research from veterinary colleges at Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota has helped us understand the difference between what we can control and what we can’t.
Worth your investment:
- Equipment sanitation—it’s 70-90% effective against farm-to-farm transmission
- Good visitor protocols with dedicated boots and coveralls
- Vehicle wash stations at your entrance
- Regular bulk tank testing for early detection
Probably not worth it in wildlife areas:
- Trying to keep birds away from water sources (impossible)
- Eliminating every insect (also impossible)
- Keeping wildlife from anywhere near your operation (you see where this is going)
As one Wisconsin producer told me: “I stopped trying to bird-proof everything and started testing my bulk tank twice a week. Can’t stop the birds, but I can catch outbreaks faster.” That’s the shift we’re all making—from prevention to rapid detection and response.
I’ve also noticed that operations with good fresh cow management tend to weather these outbreaks better. Makes sense when you think about it—cows in that transition period are already stressed, and disease hits them harder. Same goes for operations that are really dialed in on their dry cow programs. A strong immune system at calving makes a difference.
Regional Differences Matter
Now, what we’re dealing with in the upper Midwest isn’t the same everywhere. California operations face the double whammy of water restrictions and disease pressure. Texas and Arizona? Managing sick cows when it’s 110°F is a whole different challenge.
A California producer shared something interesting at a conference last month: “We’re dealing with drought, disease, and regulations all at once. Sometimes I wonder if we’re fighting too many battles.” That really resonated with folks from different regions facing their own unique combinations of challenges.
Canadian producers benefit from supply management, which provides some market stability, but they’re still facing the same wildlife disease pressures. Maritime provinces might have some geographic isolation working for them. Ontario’s concentrated dairy regions look a lot like what we deal with here.
Northeast operations often have smaller herds, older facilities—biosecurity upgrades might be tougher. But they sometimes have better access to diverse markets, established processor relationships that value consistency over volume.
Those Tough Succession Conversations
This is probably the hardest part. If you’re thinking about succession, the next generation deserves to see real numbers, not wishful thinking. Show them what the 10-year outlook really looks like with realistic disease pressure based on your location and migration patterns.
One approach that’s helping some families: run three scenarios. Best, probable, and worst cases over ten years. It helps everyone understand whether continuing makes sense or if there might be better ways to preserve what you’ve built.
A financial advisor who works with several operations dealing with this put it well: “Families are having conversations they never imagined—whether strategic exit while equity remains might serve the family better than fighting diseases you can’t prevent.” That’s not giving up. It’s being realistic about uncontrollable variables.
Where This Is All Heading
Looking at projections from CoBank’s 2025 dairy outlook and research from the University of Wisconsin’s Center for Dairy Profitability, we’re probably going from about 35,000 U.S. dairy farms today to somewhere between 12,000 and 24,000 by 2035. That’s a lot of change coming.
The operations that’ll likely make it fall into two camps. Big operations with 3,000-plus cows can absorb disease costs through efficiency and scale—they’ll probably produce 70-80% of our milk by 2035. On the other end, small niche operations—50 to 200 cows selling organic, grass-fed, local branded products—might survive through premium pricing.
It’s that middle group—200 to 800 cows, the backbone of our communities—that faces the toughest road. Not enough scale to absorb six-figure annual disease costs, not positioned for premium markets. A lot of really good farms fall in that range.
Geographically, USDA’s 2025 long-range projections suggest Wisconsin, South Dakota, and Michigan will probably add capacity—water availability, and favorable regulations. California and the Southwest are scaling back, though that’s as much about water as disease.
What nobody’s saying out loud yet—though you hear it at conferences—is that “disease-free” status as we’ve known it is probably done for certain diseases. We’re moving toward something more like “controlled endemic” status. Success gets redefined as keeping clinical disease low rather than eliminating viruses. Vaccination becomes as routine as checking butterfat levels.
Finding Your Own Path Forward

Here’s what keeps coming back to me: where your farm sits geographically might matter more than how good a manager you are when it comes to endemic disease. If you’re in a high-risk wildlife corridor, repeated reinfection might be your reality no matter what you do. That’s not your fault—it’s just biology.
The financial math is different for everyone, but the framework’s the same. Annual losses north of $114,000 from repeated infections with 20% clinical rates—that challenges most operations long-term. For some, continuing preserves tradition but destroys wealth. For others, scale or niche positioning makes adaptation work.
One thing’s crystal clear from both research and what we’re seeing in the field: when 79% of infections don’t show symptoms, negative bulk tank tests don’t mean you’re disease-free. They mean you don’t have detectable clinical disease right now. A big difference that planning needs to account for.
Every stakeholder—processors, input suppliers, government, communities—benefits from farms staying operational. That’s natural. But it means the advice you’re getting might be influenced by what others need from you, not necessarily what’s best for your family.
Moving Forward with Open Eyes
What we’re seeing isn’t a temporary problem that’ll get fixed with better biosecurity or new vaccines. It’s a big change in how disease pressure affects dairy farming. Some operations will adapt successfully—through efficiency, scale, or finding the right markets. Others will recognize that their location and economics make continuing difficult despite doing everything right.
Both paths are valid. I really mean that. A multi-generational farm choosing strategic exit while equity remains isn’t failing—they’re making a rational business decision facing uncontrollable biological variables. An operation finding ways to absorb endemic disease costs and keep producing isn’t naive—they’re adapting with full awareness of the new reality.
The next generation deserves honesty about what they’re inheriting. Managing perpetual disease pressure from wildlife is fundamentally different from what their grandparents dealt with. Some will embrace it. Others will choose different paths. Both deserve respect.
What matters now is making decisions based on what endemic disease management actually means—not what we wish it meant. Start by documenting the true costs of your next outbreak using your state extension’s templates. Schedule that financial review using these break-even frameworks. Have those succession conversations while you still have options.
Understanding the difference between the old way and this new reality—that might determine whether you preserve family wealth or watch it disappear, waiting for solutions that probably aren’t coming.
The industry will survive this transition, though it’ll look different. The question for each of us is whether weathering that transition makes sense for our specific situation, or if protecting what we’ve built means making tough choices while we still can.
And you know what? Whatever you decide, if it’s based on real information and protects your family’s future, that’s the right choice. We’re all just trying to do the best we can with a situation nobody asked for.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Your surveillance is 79% blind: Cornell found that negative bulk-tank tests miss 4 out of 5 infected animals. Start testing twice weekly and document the true 6-month cost of every outbreak—you’re probably underestimating losses by 40%.
- Run this calculation TODAY: Divide your annual profit by $217,341 (single outbreak cost). If the answer is less than 2, your farm can’t survive endemic disease at the current scale. Period.
- Location now trumps management: Perfect biosecurity can’t stop migratory birds. If you’re in a waterfowl corridor, you’ll face reinfection every 6-8 months regardless of protocols. Focus resources on rapid detection, not prevention.
- The conversation that matters: Show your family three scenarios—best case, probable, worst case—with real disease costs over 10 years. If strategic exit preserves more wealth than fighting biology you can’t control, that’s not giving up—it’s protecting what you’ve built.
Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.
Learn More:
- The H5N1 Bailout Problem: Why Some Farms Keep Getting Hit While Others Pay the Price – This piece provides a tactical breakdown of H5N1 biosecurity, revealing practical protocols for feed, water, and equipment that producers can implement immediately to move from a mindset of dependency to one of prevention.
- The $228,000 Exit Strategy Reshaping Dairy: Inside the 55% Surge in Strategic Bankruptcies – This article provides the hard financial framework for the “tough succession conversation,” explaining how Chapter 12 is being used as a rational exit strategy to preserve family equity—a critical read for those in the “middle group.”
- 6 Game-Changing ID Technologies Every North American Dairy Farm Needs Now: 17% Efficiency Boost Proven – The main article proves barn walks fail. This details the innovative solutions, from rumen boluses to computer vision, demonstrating how modern monitoring tech catches the subclinical disease that the human eye misses.
Join the Revolution!
Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Weekly for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.

Join the Revolution!





