In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mixed in fairly light post-holiday and pre-holiday trade. December was unchanged at $17.38, January was down $.09 at $16.55, February was $.04 lower at $16.94, and March was up $.06 at $17.32.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.02 at $1.67. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.67. Barrels were $.0225 lower at $1.5325. There were two trades, one at $1.555 and one at $1.54. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.5235.

Butter was $.10 higher at $2.3475. There were four trades reported, including one at $2.3475. The last uncovered offer was on one load at $2.37.

Nonfat dry milk was $.01 lower at $1.01. There were three trades, two at $1.02 and one at $1.01. The last unfilled bid was on five loads at $1.00. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.015.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were lower with most months down sharply, pressured by follow through selling and the mostly lower cash business. December was down $.02 at $17.31, January was $.37 lower at $16.62, February was down $.30 at $16.90, and March was down $.21 at $17.20.

Cash cheese was sharply lower. Blocks were down $.085 at $1.70. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.70. Barrels were $.0875 lower at $1.5675. There was one trade at $1.65. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.5675.

Butter was down $.015 at $2.205. There were five loads sold, three at $2.20, one at $2.21, and one at $2.205. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $2.20.

Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $1.02. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.97. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.02.

Cooperatives Working Together announced the acceptance of 10 requests for export assistance. The requests cover 228,178 pounds of Cheddar cheese and 1.323 million pounds of butter. The products are headed to Asia, Central America, the Middle East, and North Africa with delivery slated for December of this year through March of next year.

The USDA has set the base Class I milk price for January 2017 at $17.45 per hundredweight, up $.57 from December 2016. The base skim price is set at $9.61, down $.23.

For the week ending December 17th, butter averaged $2.10 per pound, down $.008 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar came out at $1.83, $.053 lower. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.69, a decline of $.042. Dry whey was pegged at $.403, up $.01. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.967, $.011 higher.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture reports the state’s average nonfat dry milk price for the week ending December 16th was $.9596 per pound, up $.0161 on the week. Sales of 4,466,100 pounds were down 160,647.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mostly lower on profit taking and spread trade. December was down $.01 at $17.33, January was $.20 lower at $16.99, February was down $.13 at $17.20, and March was $.08 lower at $17.41.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.005 at $1.785. There were a total of five trades, including one at $1.785 and two at $1.79. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.775. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.785. Barrels were $.03 lower at $1.655. There were eight loads sold, five at $1.68 and three at $1.67. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.655.

Butter was down $.0275 at $2.22. There were three loads sold, two at $2.22 and one at $2.215. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.24.

Nonfat dry milk was $.025 lower at $1.02. There were a total of four trades, including one at $1.02. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.01. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.0225.

The Global Dairy Trade index was down 0.5% at $3,656 per ton. That’s the first down event since the October 4th auction. Anhydrous milk fat was down 2.3% and lactose was 1.6% lower. Rennet casein was up 3.3% and butter milk powder was 3.1% higher. The next event is scheduled for January 3rd, 2017.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

The New Zealand dollar will remain vulnerable to further selling if the US currency continues to advance. There is, however, the risk of a sharp correction from over-bought conditions and any further increase in global dairy prices would help underpin the local currency. Overall, further short-term NZD/USD losses are liable to be reversed later in the week.

US dollar trends will remain very important following a fresh surge in US currency after the Federal Reserve interest rate increase. The US currency surged across the board, primarily due to the projections from individual FOMC members that there would potentially be three rate increases in 2017.

From above 0.7200 ahead of the decision, there was a slide to lows below 0.7000 on Friday with a drop below this level triggering a rash of stops and a dive to a trough below 0.6950, the lowest level since early June, before a slight recovery.

If the US dollar maintains a very strong tone, there will be little chance of a sustained New Zealand dollar rally while a significant correction in the US currency would increase the potential for a Kiwi rebound.

The US data releases are unlikely to have a major impact, although a strong reading for durable goods orders would help underpin confidence in the US outlook.

Comments from Fed Chair Yellen will be watched very closely in her speech on Monday. Any notable attempt to push back against the market’s hawkish interpretation of the Fed statement would undermine the US dollar and support the New Zealand currency. If Yellen appear comfortable with the market’s assessment, there is the potential for fresh US support, which would undermine the New Zealand dollar.

EUR/USD moves will inevitably have a significant impact and any determined move to challenge parity would undermine the New Zealand dollar.

Domestically, there are a series of significant data releases during the week. The latest building consents data will be released on Monday local time, along with the Westpac consumer sentiment data and ANZ business confidence report.

The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction is due on Tuesday during the European session and this will be the last auction of 2016 following a strong run over the past two months with four consecutive gains. A further gain in prices would boost overall confidence in the dairy outlook and support the terms of trade.

The latest trade data will be released Wednesday local time with the gain in dairy prices likely to have some favourable impact.

The most important release is likely to be the GDP data due on Thursday local time with markets expecting a slight moderation in quarterly growth to 0.8% from 0.9% previously.

There will be no immediate impact on monetary policy, especially with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand(RBNZ) not due to meet until February, but there will be a significant impact on confidence. Strong data would bolster expectations that the next move in rates will be an increase, while disappointing data would revive speculation that interest rates could still be cut again.

The latest COT data recorded a decline in short, non-commercial positions to 3,700 contracts from 3,900 the previous week, maintaining the possibility of position squaring, although the overall impact is likely to be limited.

There will be an important decline in liquidity during the week, which will increase the risk of erratic trading conditions. The New Zealand data will come out when normal trading volumes are at low levels after the US close, increasing the risk of an exaggerated reaction to the data. There will also be the risk of sharp squeezes on positions at times as liquidity fades.

Source: Economic Calendar

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mixed on spread trade and consolidation. December was up $.02 at $17.25, January was down $.04 at $17.09, February was $.07 lower at $17.41, and March was down $.01 at $17.57. April through July 2017 closed higher.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.7575. There were five loads sold at $1.7575. Barrels were up $.035 at $1.715. There were a total of seven trades, from $1.68 to $1.715.

Butter held at $2.085. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.075. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.11.

Nonfat dry milk was $.025 higher at $.9975. There were a total of seven loads sold, five at $.98 and two at $.985. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.9975. The last uncovered offer was for five loads at $1.00.

Cooperatives Working Together announced the acceptance of 13 bids for export assistance covering 2.518 million pounds of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheese and 440,925 pounds of butter. The products are headed to Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Oceania with delivery scheduled for December of this year through March of next year.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mostly lower on profit taking after Monday’s big gain, along with spread trade. December was the exception, up $.06 at $17.23, most active January was down $.15 at $17.13, February was $.14 lower at $17.48, and March was down $.16 at $17.56.

Cash cheese was higher. Blocks were up $.0275 at $1.7575. There was one load sold at 1.7575. Barrels were $.0525 higher at $1.68. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.68.

Butter was up $.005 at $2.085. There was one trade at $2.0825. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.085.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 higher at $.9725. There were a total of ten trades, one at $.9725, one at $.9675, and eight at $.97. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.965. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.975.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture reports that for the week ending December 9th, nonfat dry milk averaged $.9435 per pound, up $.0248, with sales of 4,626,757 pounds, down 7,404,623.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were higher with the most active months up sharply on the USDA’s lower 2016 and 2017 production estimates. December was up $.07 at $17.17, January was $.60 higher at $17.28, February was up $.74 at $17.62, and March was $.73 higher at $17.74.

Cash cheese was higher, rebounding a little after last week’s losses. Blocks were up $.02 at $1.79. There were eight loads sold, one at $1.73, two at $1.72, and five at $1.71. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.72. Barrels were $.05 higher at $1.6275. There were five trades reported, including one at $1.6275 and two at $1.63.

Butter was up $.015 at $2.08. There was one load sold at $2.08.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.0025 at $.97. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.92. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.97.

According to HighGround Dairy, U.S. butter exports during October were helped out by a shortage of butterfat from Canada, which is expected to be a supportive factor all quarter. HighGround says that strong export demand also pushed U.S. butter prices higher. Nonfat dry milk, whey protein, and lactose exports were also solid because of lower milk production from Australia and New Zealand. Skim milk powder sales during October 2016 were the highest since May of 2015 thanks to demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

The USDA lowered its milk production outlook for 2016 and 2017, citing slower than expected growth in the U.S. dairy herd. Production this year is seen at 212.4 billion pounds, down 100 million, and next year is pegged at 216.8 billion pounds, 200 million lower. The lower production is expected to boost milk prices, with the average 2016 price for all milk seen at $16.05 to $16.15 per hundredweight and 2017 projected at $16.85 to $17.65.

The USDA raised cheese and butter price estimates for this year and next year, expecting continued solid domestic demand. 2017 prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey were up on the month with the USDA anticipating strong export demand in the coming year. The dairy product demand expectations led the USDA to also raise Class III and Class IV price estimates.

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates PDF

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were steady to higher on spread trade and technical buying. December was up $.14 at $17.07, January was $.02 higher at $16.53, February held at $16.68, and March was up $.01 at $16.73.

Cash cheese continued its recent losses. Blocks were $.0075 lower at $1.7225. There were four trades, three at $1.72 and one at $1.7225. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.7225. Barrels were down $.0075 at $1.5775. There was one trade at $1.5775 and one at $1.58. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.59.

Butter was $.025 lower at $2.07. There were a total of seven trades, including three at $2.07 and two at $2.0675. The last unfilled bid was on five loads at $2.05. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.0725.

Nonfat dry milk was $.025 higher at $.9825. There were four loads sold, two at $.97, one at $.9725, and one at $.98. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.9825.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mixed, consolidating after a couple of losing sessions. December was down $.05 at $16.93, January was $.07 lower at $16.51, February was down $.03 at $16.68, and March was up $.03 at $16.72.

Cash cheese continued its slide. Blocks were down $.0025 at $0.73. There were four loads sold, three at $1.73 and one at $1.72. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.70. Barrels were $.0075 lower at $1.585. There were four loads sold, two at $1.59 and one each at $1.5875 and $1.585. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.60.

Butter was down $.025 at $2.095. There were three loads sold, two at $2.095 and one at $2.0975. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.10.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0175 lower at $.9575. There were two loads sold at $.9575. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.9625.

The USDA says butter for the week ending December 3rd averaged $2.04 per pound, up $.043 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar came out at $1.91, $.019 higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.79, down $.002. Dry whey was pegged at $.383, up $.006. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.926, $.01 higher.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture says nonfat dry milk for the week ending December 2nd averaged $.9187 per pound, up $.0079 on the week, with sales of 12,031,380 pounds, an increase of 6,384,850 from the week before.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were down on another round of profit taking after last week’s late move to new contract highs. December was $.05 lower at $16.98, January was down $.17 at $16.58, February was $.12 lower at $16.71, and March was down $.10 at $16.69.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.0275 at $1.7325. There was one trade at $1.7325, along with one at $1.74. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.72. Barrels were $.0075 lower at $1.5925. There were a total of five loads sold, including one at $1.5925 and two at $1.5975. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.60.

Butter was up $.0075 at $2.12. There were two loads sold at $2.12. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.10.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.015 at $.975. There were two loads sold at $.975. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $.98.

The Global Dairy Trade index was up 3.5% from the previous auction at an average of $3,622 per ton. Lactose jumped 10.6% and whole milk powder was 4.9% higher, while butter milk powder was the only declining sector, losing 2.6%. The next auction is scheduled for December 20th.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Dairy Outlook: A tightening of world supply and demand will reduce the world’s surplus, increasing dairy product prices and making U.S. dairy more competitive globally.

Looking ahead to 2017, milk prices will depend a lot on the level of milk production. Milk production continues to run well above year-ago levels, with October production up 2.5%, according to USDA.

Milk cow numbers have been declining, falling 6,000 head since peaking in August. Of the 23 reporting states, 11 had fewer cows than a year ago, but more milk per cow is driving the increase in milk production. Milk per cow was 2.3% higher than a year ago. Just three reporting states had lower milk cow numbers than a year ago.

Milk production for the year will end up about 2% higher than 2015. While milk cows will average just 0.1% higher, milk per cow will be about 1.7% higher. USDA is forecasting 2017 milk production to increase an additional 2.1%.

“That is a lot of milk,” says Bob Cropp, University of Wisconsin-Madison dairy economist. “But we can expect high milk prices from continued good butter and cheese sales, as well as improved exports as we move through 2017.”

The growth in world milk production has slowed as major exporters — European Union, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina — are experiencing lower milk production, with either declines or small increases for 2017, Cropp says.

“The U.S. is the only major exporter experiencing higher milk production,” he says. “World demand has picked up with China and other major importers being more active.”

This tightening of world supply and demand will reduce the buildup of world surplus, increasing world dairy product prices and making U.S. dairy products more competitive on the world market, Cropp says. World prices are already showing strength. Prices on the Global World Dairy Trade have strengthened in seven of the last eight trades.

Cropp is predicting that the Class III price may be in the high $15s at the start of 2017, in the low $16s by the end of first quarter, in the mid-$16s by second quarter, higher $16s by third quarter and the $17s as a possibility for the fourth quarter.

“The average for the year could be near $16.50, a good improvement over the expected $14.75 for 2016,” he says. This is more optimistic than USDA and some other forecasters are giving. USDA has the Class III averaging from $15.30 to $16.20. But final milk prices will be subject to any small changes in milk production, sales or exports.

Volatile cheese prices have meant volatile Class III milk prices this year. On the CME, 40-pound cheddar blocks averaged a low of $1.32 per pound in May, rebounding to $1.78 in August, only to fall back to $1.60 in October. The result was the May Class III was $12.76, August $16.91 and October $14.82. The good news is that while November cheese prices have had some rather big price increases as well as decreases, overall cheese prices have shown surprising strength in November to the point that the November Class III could be near $16.75.

Source: Farm Progress

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were down on profit taking after last week’s run to new contract highs, along with position squaring ahead of the Global Dairy Trade auction. December was down $.13 at $17.03, January was $.21 lower at $16.75, February was down $.15 at $16.83, and March was $.10 lower at $16.79.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.05 at $1.76. There were four trades, one at $1.76, one at $1.7575, and two at $1.75. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.76. Barrels were $.015 lower at $1.60. There were a total of eight trades, including one at $1.60 and five at $1.605. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.59. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.60.

Butter was down $.0725 at $2.1125. There were three trades, two at $2.14 and one at $2.12. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $2.10. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.1125.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0175 lower at $.99. There was one load sold at $.98. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.99. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.00.

Cooperatives Working Together granted 15 requests for export assistance covering 1.785 million pounds of Cheddar cheese headed to Asia, the Middle East, and Oceania. Delivery is scheduled for December of this year through March of next year.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

The price of whole milk powder, New Zealand’s key commodity export, may rise for the fourth straight auction on the GlobalDairyTrade platform next week on the expectation future European milk production will be crimped by environmental curbs.

Whole milk powder futures for December last traded at $US3480 a tonne, a 2.1% premium to their previous GDT level and implying prices will advance at Tuesday night’s auction, according to AgriHQ senior dairy analyst Susan Kilsby.

Prices for whole milk powder have picked up in the second half of this year after a prolonged slump, as demand and supply move back into balance. The average price for whole milk powder has jumped by almost two-thirds since mid-July and recent news that farmers in the Netherlands will have to reduce cow numbers by about 11% next year to meet EU phosphate limits has given the futures market a further boost ahead of next week’s auction.

“The one thing that we have seen in the last week or so which is positive for dairy commodity prices is that the Netherlands will have to reduce its cow numbers next year to meet phosphate limitations,” Ms Kilsby said.

Rising dairy prices had been expected to prompt farmers in Europe to boost milk production, with Ireland and the Netherlands typically the biggest contributors to growth, Kilsby said.

“We were a little worried that we would see quite a boost in production again from Europe next year,” Ms Kilsby said. “That’s taken one of the big contributors out of the equation. While we are expecting some growth out of Europe next year, that will curb some of that growth.”

Source: NBR

Global dairy commodity prices are expected to continue to rise in 2017 due to reduced milk supplies and improved import demand, AHDB Dairy has reported.

This assertion is based on Rabobank’s latest outlook projection for the dairy market.

Significantly, it predicts that producers will struggle to expand production to take advantage of rising prices until at least the second quarter of 2017.

This is particularly true for the EU, AHDB has said, where the milk production reduction scheme has been put in place by the European Commission.

Rabobank has also warned that the effect of the scheme is still uncertain, particularly now farmgate prices are increasing.

Participants could still choose to produce to receive the market price, rather than taking the reduction payment.

If the scheme’s usage is lower than anticipated in late 2016 and early 2017, it has said that milk production could recover earlier than expected.

According to Rabobank, this would put significant downward pressure on global prices next year.

Meanwhile, Rabobank’s World Dairy Map for 2016 points out that the trade in milk products has suffered a number of massive blows in the last three years.

The Russian trade embargo, the slowing of demand growth from China, the impact of low oil prices on demand from oil exporting countries and the strengthening of the US Dollar have all had an impact on the demand for imports.

The expansion of production surrounding the removal of production quotas in Europe added to the pain and resulted in a period of extremely low world prices.

Looking forward, none of these issues has been resolved. According to Rabobank, the Russian ban will be in place at least until 2017.

Demand from China will continue to grow but at a slower rate, oil prices are forecast to remain at around the US$50/barrel mark, and the dollar is forecast to maintain its high value against other currencies.

As a result, dairy trade is likely to grow at a slower rate than in recent years, driven more by population growth than per capita consumption increases.

But this comes at a time when further rapid expansion of export volumes would be more difficult, with further New Zealand expansion limited by land availability, Europe stabilising after milk quota removal, and the US export ambitions limited by domestic demand growth and the strong US Dollar.

Rabobank analysts also point out that trade is likely to remain dominated by regional rather than global routes with free trade agreements significantly influencing volumes.

The exception will be Asia, which will continue to be a highly competitive battle ground for exporters from around the globe, it found.

All of this must be overlaid with the potential for the renegotiation or cancellation of trade agreements following the US election results.

Source: AgriLand

Chinese dairy imports are showing signs of tailing off as we enter the back end of the year.

In a further sign of the improving returns in global dairy markets, New Zealand dairy processor Synlait has increased its farmgate milk price forecast to $6/kg (30c/litre). This latest increase comes just days after Fonterra also lifted its forecast milk price to 30c/litre.

The rising milk price in New Zealand is a response to falloff in milk collections from farmers this season. In October, the month of peak milk supply in New Zealand, Fonterra’s milk collections were down 8.3% compared with last year.

However, while the tightening supply situation in New Zealand indicates that dairy prices should …

Source: Irish Farmers Journal

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were supported by continued technical momentum and recent lower production numbers from some key export competitors. December was up $.05 at $16.99, January was $.30 higher at $16.82, February was up $.28 at $16.80, and March was $.25 higher at $16.73.

Cash cheese was mixed. Blocks were up $.02 at $1.78. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.78. Barrels were down $.015 at $1.62. There were a total of three loads sold, two at $1.62 and one at $1.6225. The last unfilled bid was for two loads at $1.61. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.63.

Butter was $.0375 lower at $2.1925. There was one load sold at $2.1925. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.10. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $2.25.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0375 higher at $.99. There were five loads sold, three at $.99 and two at $.98. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.995.

Changes to the CME Group’s cash dairy products market start Monday, December 5th. The CME Group says the moves will increase transparency and increase access for traders, brokers, and other market participants. Cash settled nonfat dry milk trade will move from an open outcry session to the CME’s direct auction platform. Cash butter and cheese are expected to make the transition in 2017. Adjustments to the times of trading sessions also start Monday, with cash cheese now trading between 10:45 and 10:55 AM Central, butter trading from 11:00 to 11:10 AM, and nonfat dry milk trading from 11:30 to 11:40 AM.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mostly higher in technical activity. November was unchanged at $16.72, December was down $.01 at $16.72, January was up $.06 at $16.43, and February was $.11 higher at $16.34.

Cash cheese was lower. Barrels were down $.02 at $1.655. There were a total of seven loads sold, including one at $1.655 and four at $1.67. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.67. Blocks were $.065 lower at $1.78. There were six loads sold, including two at $1.78 and two at $1.82.

Butter held at $2.10. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.13.

Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.92. There were four loads sold, three at $.92 and one at $.91. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.915. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.9275.

Tuesday, the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist released a preview of February’s long term agricultural projections through 2026. The USDA is projecting a steady increase in domestic milk production on higher milk cow numbers and improving average yields per cow. Demand is general is also expected to increase over the next decade, supporting milk prices. Except for butter, the USDA says dairy product prices will move higher. The USDA does note there are a number of assumptions in making decade long projections, including weather, international uncertainties, policy, economics, and a number of other unforeseen issues.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

A dairy policy analyst expects milk prices to go up in 2017. University of Wisconsin Professor Mark Stephenson tells Brownfield milk prices started to recover in May. He says, “We think that we’re on the upswing of that and that it’s genuine and legitimate, and barring some kind of wholesale world collapse like we had back in 2009, I don’t think that we’re going to see these prices retrench. I think we’ll see them continue to climb through 2017.”

Stephenson says demand is strong and the supply is tightening. “Large countries that have demanded dairy products including China, and for us personally, Mexico, demand has picked up quite a bit in the last several months, and other major exporters including European Union, New Zealand, and Australia have been down in milk production fairly significantly.”

Stephenson says it only takes a one or two percent change in world milk production to have a major impact on dairy prices.

He expects a big surge in dairy prices but isn’t sure if it will happen in late 2017 or early 2018.

Source: Brownfield

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, after the long holiday weekend, milk futures were mostly up modestly, buying back some of last Wednesday’s losses. November was the exception, down $.02 at $16.72, December was up $.07 at $16.93, January was $.16 higher at $16.37, and February was up $.08 at $16.23.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.015 at $1.845 with one load sold. Barrels were $.015 lower at $1.675. There were three loads sold at $1.68. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.675.

Butter was up $.0525 at $2.10. There was one load sold at $2.10 and one sold at $2.0975. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.08.

Nonfat dry milk was $.015 higher at $.92. There were two loads sold at $.905 and one at $.91. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.92.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Chicago Mercantile Exchange prices strengthened the third week of November as traders anticipated Friday afternoon’s October Milk Production report.

The cheddar blocks closed Friday at $1.91 per pound, up 2 1/2-cents on the week and 34 cents above a year ago.

The barrels sank to $1.6675 Thursday but rallied Friday, jumping 8 1/4-cents, to $1.75, a half-cent lower on the week, after plunging 10 1/2-cents the previous week, but are 24 3/4-cents above a year ago.

The spread grew to 23 cents Thursday, a gap not seen since May 2013, but finished Friday at 16 cents. Only three cars of block traded hands on the week and 49 of barrel.

The blocks were unchanged Monday but inched up a half-cent Tuesday, to $1.9150, as traders awaited Tuesday afternoon’s October Cold Storage report and a shortened holiday week.

The barrels lost a penny Monday and 2 1/2-cents Tuesday, slipping to $1.7150, 20 cents below the blocks. The markets are closed Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving.

“Midwest cheese production is active as manufacturers are working hard to get orders filled before the holidays,” according to Dairy Market News. Western contacts say a lot of milk is going into cheese.

Spot butter’s return to $2 per pound was tested, slipping to $1.98 last Tuesday, then regained a nickel Wednesday. The Friday close of $2.03 per pound was up 2 cents on the week but 85 1/2-cents below a year ago. Twenty-five cars exchanged hands last week at the CME.

The butter gave up 2 cents Monday but shot up 4 cents Tuesday, to $2.05 per pound, highest spot since Sept. 1.

“Central region Class II processors continue pulling substantial amounts of cream ahead of the year-end holiday,” reports DMN. “As a result, light to moderate cream availability is somewhat curtailing butter production.

“Western output is running strong as butter makers work hard to meet remaining 2016 commitments.”

Grade A nonfat dry milk saw a 90 cent per pound close Friday, up 2 1/4-cents on the week and 12 cents above year ago. Seventeen cars were sold on the week.

The powder inched a quarter-cent higher Monday, then gave it back Tuesday.
October milk up 2.7 percent
October milk production in the top 23 producing states totaled 16.5 billion pounds, up a bearish 2.7 percent from October 2015, according to USDA’s preliminary data, and the 33rd consecutive month output was above that of a year ago.

The 50-state total, at 17.6 billion pounds, was up 2.5 percent. Revisions lowered the original September 23-state estimate by 6 million pounds, now put at 16.0 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

October cow numbers in the 23 states totaled 8.67 million head, down 2,000 from September but 31,000 more than a year ago. Output per cow averaged 1,903 pounds, up 43 pounds from a year ago, thanks to mild weather conditions, and is the highest October output since the series began in 2003.

California topped year ago output for the first time in 23 months, up 1.8 percent despite a drop of 11,000 cows. Output per cow made the difference, up 45 pounds.

Wisconsin was up 2.2 percent, on a 45-pound gain per cow but cow numbers were down 2,000 head.

Idaho was up 4.0 percent, thanks to a 40-pound gain per cow and 12,000 more cows. New York was up 4.7 percent on a 90-pound per cow gain but cow numbers were unchanged.

Pennsylvania was up 2.2 percent, thanks to a 50-pound gain per cow offsetting a loss of 4,000 cows. Minnesota was up 1.9 percent on a 30-pound gain per cow and 1,000 more cows

Michigan was up 4.9 percent, thanks to 12,000 more cows and 40 pounds more per cow. New Mexico topped year ago output by 1.1 percent, on a 35-pound gain per cow, though cow numbers were down 2,000 head.

Texas really poured it in the tank in October, besting the other states with an 8.2 percent jump in milk output, thanks to 26,000 more cows than a year ago and output per cow being up 45 pounds.

Washington state was up 2.2 percent on a 45-pound gain per cow though cow numbers were down 2,000 head.
Plenty in the cooler
The U.S. has plenty of dairy products to consume. USDA’s Cold Storage report pegs Oct. 31 butter stocks at 227.7 million pounds, down 41.4 million pounds or 15 percent from September, but 48.9 million pounds or 27 percent above those in October 2015.

American type cheese, at 729.9 million pounds, was down 12.9 million pounds or 2 percent from September but 33.2 million or 5 percent above a year ago.

The total cheese inventory stood at 1.2 billion pounds, down 19.9 million pounds or 2 percent from September but 69.4 million pounds or 6 percent above a year ago.

Source: Capital Press

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were lower on profit taking. November was down $.06 at $16.74, December was $.27 lower at $16.86, January was down $.25 at $16.21, and February was $.15 lower at $16.15.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.055 at $1.86. There were four loads sold at $1.845. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.86. Barrels were $.025 lower at $1.69. There were a total of five trades, three at $1.695, along with one at $1.70 and one at $1.71. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.68. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.69.

Butter was down $.0025 at $2.0475. There were four loads sold, one each at $2.03, $2.04, $2.0475, and $2.05. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.03.

Nonfat dry milk was $.005 higher at $.905. There were two loads sold at $.90. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.905. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.91.

The USDA says that for the week ending November 19th, butter averaged $1.94 per pound, up $.053 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar were pegged at $1.82, $.086 higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.78, an increase of $.091. Dry whey came out at $.374, up $.007. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.912, $.004 higher.

The USDA has set the base Class I price for December at $16.88 per hundredweight, up $2.10, with a skim price of $9.84, $2.05 higher.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture reports the state’s nonfat dry milk price for the week ending November 18th was $.9271, up $.0191 on the week, with sales of 7.377 million pounds, down 1.889 million.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mixed, with active nearby contracts supported by spread trade and follow through buying. November was unchanged at $16.76, December was $.15 higher at $17.13, January was up $.09 at $16.46, and February was $.04 higher at $16.30.

Cash cheese blocks were up $.005 at $1.915. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.915. Barrels were down $.025 cents at $1.715. There were a total of six trades, ranging from $1.72 to $1.7375. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.715.

Butter was $.04 higher at $2.05. There was one load sold at $2.05 and one sold at $2.03. There was one unfilled bid at $2.03.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 lower at $.90. There was one load sold at ninety, along with one at $.9025 and one at $.905. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.88.

The USDA says cheese stocks at the end of October totaled 1.216 billion pounds, up 6% on the year. That includes a 5% increase in American cheese, a 13% jump in Swiss, and a 8% gain in other types to a new all-time high. Butter stocks came out at 227.747 million pounds, 27% above a year ago.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Dairy co-operative Fonterra said on Friday it was lifting its forecast farmgate milk payout to NZ$6 per kilogram of milk solids (kgMS) as falling milk production boosted global dairy prices.

Global dairy prices have risen more than 50 percent since July, prompting the New Zealand dairy giant to raise the forecast payout for the current season from a previously predicted NZ$5.25 kgMS.

Fonterra’s chairman John Wilson said tightened global milk supply and ongoing demand for dairy products had caused “a steady improvement” in global dairy prices, which was filtering through to their payout to farmers

Forecast earnings per share for the 2017 year were NZ$0.50 to NZ$0.60, meaning farmers were likely to earn at least $6.50 kgMS in the current season.

Prices for dairy ingredients such as milk and butter have fallen sharply for more than two years, hit by a global oversupply and slowing demand from China, squeezing the finances of farmers and producers and pushing many towards consolidation in search of economies of scale.

The dairy giant forecast a farmgate milk payment to its Australian farmers of A$5.20 kgMS by the end of the season. Fonterra’s current payout to Australian farmers is A$5.10 kgMS.

Source: Reuters

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were supported by technical buying, with the most active months breaking recent resistance. November was up $.04 at $16.71, December was $.23 higher at $16.71, January was up $.18 at $16.13, and February was $.15 higher at $16.08.

Cash cheese blocks were up $.0125 at $1.8975 with one load sold. Barrels were down $.0025 at $1.6675. There were a total of seven loads sold, including one at $1.6675 and three at $1.655. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.67.

Butter held at $2.03. There were 11 loads sold, 10 at $2.03 and one at $2.0275. The last unfilled bid was on two loads $2.01. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.04.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 higher at $.90. There were four loads sold at $.90. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.90. The last offer uncovered was for one load at $.91.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were mostly lower on profit taking and spread trade. November was down $.01 at $16.69, December was up $.04 at $16.48, January was $.04 lower at $15.95, and February was down $.07 at $15.93.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.885. Barrels were down $.0325 at $1.67. There were a total of thirteen loads sold, one at $1.67 and nine at $1.7025.

Butter was up $.05 at $2.03. There was one load sold at $2.03, along with one each at $2.00 and $2.0025. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.01. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.03.

Nonfat dry milk was $.005 higher at $.8975. There was one load sold at $.895. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.8975. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.90.

The USDA reports cash butter for the week ending November 12th averaged $1.89 per pound, down $.022 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar were pegged at $1.73, $.095 higher. 500 pound barrels of cheddar averaged $1.69, up $.089. Dry whey came out at $.367, one cent higher. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.909, down $.002.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture says nonfat dry milk for the week ending November 11th averaged $.908 per pound, pretty much unchanged on the week. Sales of 9.3 million pounds were down 1.7 million.

According to HighGround Dairy, milk production in New Zealand last season was down 1.5%, despite the lowest prices in 20 seasons and reduced herd numbers. Industry group DairyNZ, via HighGround, cited changes to ownership structures, along changes to breeding and herd improvement.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Dairy product prices rose at the Global Dairy Trade auction, gaining for the seventh time in eight auctions, amid supply decreases.

The GDT price index increased 4.5% to US$3,519, up from US$3,327 at the previous auction two weeks ago. Some 23,902 tonnes of product was sold, down from 27,735 tonnes at the previous auction.

Whole milk powder added 3.2% to US$3,423 a tonne.

Last month Fonterra said it reduced its forecast milk volume for the 2016-17 season in New Zealand.

“Tightening milk supplies in both New Zealand and Australia has put pressure on suppliers with some dairy companies struggling to meet contracted delivery times,” AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said in a note.

“This has left a few buyers with low supplies on hand putting some urgency into the market.”

Still, “the lift was a little less than the market had anticipated,” according to Ms Kilsby.

At the latest GDT auction, butter milk powder jumped 13.3% to US$2,623 a tonne, while cheddar climbed 11% to US$3,697 a tonne.

Skim milk powder rallied 9.8% to US$2,562 a tonne, while lactose advanced 4.6% to US$787 a tonne.

Anhydrous milk fat rose 4.4% to US$5,348 a tonne, while butter added 1.1% to US$4,193 a tonne, and rennet casein edged 0.6% higher to US$6,040 a tonne.

The New Zealand dollar last traded at 70.93 US cents at about 11.31am in New York, compared with 71.18 US cents at 5pm in Wellington the previous day.

There were 106 winning bidders out of 164 participating at the 18-round auction. The number of qualified bidders held steady at 510, the same as at the previous auction.

Source: Otago Daily Times

Global dairy prices continued to rise in a fortnightly auction on Wednesday, bolstering the chance of an ongoing recovery and a higher payout to farmers from dairy giant Fonterra.

The Global Dairy Price Index climbed 4.5 percent to an average selling price of $3,519 per tonne in an auction held in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Prices had risen at seven of the eight auctions held since August with the gains largely driven by slowing global supply. There were also signs that demand was picking up, which suggested a recovery could be sustained longer-term.

“Once again there was strong buying interest out of China in last night’s auction, which helps give us some confidence that higher prices are not just a reflection of tighter supply but also, in part, reflect firmer demand,” said Anne Boniface, senior economist at Westpac in a research note.

Prices for dairy ingredients such as milk and butter have fallen sharply for more than two years, hit by a global oversupply and slowing demand from China, squeezing the finances of farmers and producers and pushing many towards consolidation in search of economies of scale.

The recovery could prompt New Zealand’s Fonterra to raise its milk payout for the season, analysts said.

Fonterra’s current farmgate payout is NZ$5.25 ($3.72) per kilogram of milk solids (kgMS), but analysts were now expecting the co-operative to raise prices.

“With another solid result in the bag, there is now clear upside to our $6.00/kg 2016/17 milk price forecast,” said ASB senior rural economist Nathan Penny in a research note.

The auctions are held twice a month, with the next one scheduled for Dec. 6.

The auction results can affect the New Zealand dollar as the dairy sector generates more than 7 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, but the morning’s auction results had little impact.

The Kiwi continued to edge down, as it had for the past week due to U.S. dollar strength, to trade around $0.7093, suggesting investors had been expecting the auction would show prices continuing to rise.

Source: Reuters

Prices increased 4.5% at today’s Global Dairy Trade event, with all dairy products registering increases in average prices.

This latest increase comes after a bumper increase of 11.4% in prices earlier this month.

Butter milk powder (BMP) prices increased 13.3%, while the cheddar index saw an increase of 11%. Skimmed milk powder (SMP) was another key driver of the increase this week, with prices up 9.8%.

Meanwhile, despite the futures market pointing to a 5% to 7% increase in whole milk powder (WMP) prices, they increased by 3.2%.

Key Results

• AMF index up 4.4%, average price US$5,348/MT.
• Butter index up 1.1%, average price US$4,193/MT.
• BMP index up 13.3%, average price US$2,623/MT.
• Ched index up 11.0%, average price US$3,697/MT.
• LAC index up 4.6%, average price US$787/MT.
• RenCas index up 0.6%, average price US$6,040/MT.
• SMP index up 9.8%, average price US$2,562/MT.
• WMP index up 3.2%, average price US$3,423/MT.

Speaking to Agriland this week, Senior Analyst at AHDB, Luke Crossman said that international pressure on dairy markets remains relatively strong.

“We have seen EU markets level off since the end of October, but that may just be a blip. Global milk output continues to fall.”

The Global Dairy Trade is the main global indicator of market sentiment at this time of the year, Crossman said.

“This is because we are entering a period of the year when dairy output from New Zealand significantly out performs the EU.”

The October the PPI increased to 95.9 points, which is the equivalent of 27.9c/L VAT inclusive, based on Ornua’s product purchase mix and assumed costs of 6.5p/L.

This latest increase reflects higher returns in the month across all main products, according to Ornua.

Compared to the September PPI, the October returns rose by 3.7 points. The PPI has steadily been rising since July, which was the first time it rose in 16 months.

Source: Agriland

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were supported by the higher move in the Global Dairy Trade index. November was up $.02 at $16.70, December was $.11 higher at $16.44, January was up $.14 at $15.99, and February was $.09 higher at $16.00.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.885. Barrels were down a quarter cent at $1.7025. There were two loads sold at $1.7025 along with three at $1.705. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.705.

Butter was $.01 lower at $1.98. There were a total of ten loads sold, six at $1.98. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.975. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.99.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.015 at $.8925. There were six loads sold, one at $.8925 and five at $.89. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.8925.

The Global Dairy Trade Auction index was up 4.5% at an average of $3,519 per ton. All sectors were higher, including a 13.3% jump in butter milk powder and an 11% rise in cheddar. The next auction is scheduled for Tuesday, December 6th.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

The Canadian government said on Thursday that it would spend C$350 million ($259.88 million) to help its dairy sector compete against increased European imports allowed under a free trade deal, but the amount falls short of farmers’ expectations.

The money includes C$250 million over five years to help farmers update equipment, and C$100 million over four years to help dairy processors modernize operations, Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay said in a statement.

Dairy Farmers of Canada, an influential lobby group, said the money only partially addresses “damage” that Canada’s free trade deal with the European Union will inflict.

Under the deal, European dairies would receive tariff-free access for an additional 17,700 tonnes of cheese, representing 2 percent of Canadian milk production, according to Dairy Farmers of Canada.

The previous Conservative government had promised C$4.3 billion over 15 years to compensate dairy, poultry and egg farmers, but that pledge dissolved with their election loss last year.

The Liberal government designed the payout after consulting the dairy industry, and it will place the processing sector “on the cutting edge,” MacAulay told reporters.

“We certainly do feel it’s enough,” he said.

The European Union and Canada signed the free trade agreement last month, but it must still clear some 40 national and regional parliaments in Europe in coming years to enter fully into force.

Funds for the dairy sector could help processors such as Agropur, Saputo Inc and Parmalat SpA’s Canadian unit upgrade plants. Processors are already boosting domestic production of milk proteins for cheese production at the expense of imports, but some need to overhaul their plants.

Canada’s supply management system tightly controls dairy prices and production, and Ottawa levies steep tariffs to limit imports.

Dairy farmers and processors struck an agreement in July that allows Canadian processors to buy milk ingredients from farmers at the lowest of international prices. Industry groups in the United States, New Zealand, Australia and Europe say it undercuts their exports and violates World Trade Organization competition rules.

MacAulay said his government had no role in the July agreement.

“Anything that can help the (Canadian) dairy sector, we support,” he said.

($1 = 1.3468 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Tom Brown).

Source: Yahoo

The global Food Price Index from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) averaged 172.6 points in October, up 0.7 per cent for the month and 9.1 per cent from a year earlier, with the staple grains’ index rising for the first time in three months.

The Food Price Index, which has risen continuously throughout 2016 except for a brief dip in July, is a trade-weighted index tracking international market prices for five major food commodity groups.

October’s rise was driven primarily by jumps in sugar and dairy prices. The FAO Dairy Price Index rose 3.9 per cent from September, led by rising prices of cheese and in particular butter, as a result of sustained internal demand in the European Union after a period during which stocks were drawn down.

By contrast, the FAO Oils/Fats Price Index declined 2.4 per cent from September. The FAO Meat Price Index also fell, dropping 1.0 per cent in October, with the drop largely driven by slacker demand for European pigmeat from importers in China.

The FAO Cereal Price Index, meanwhile, rose 1.0 per cent in October, buoyed by tightening supplies of high-quality wheat even as the overall prospects for global wheat harvests have improved.

Source: The Cattle Site

Gains during the past two weeks in the spot market for dairy commodities at the CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) raised the price for Cheddar block cheese to its highest level during 2016.

That price stood at $1.9425 per pound on Wednesday of this week after a 1 cent gain on a market day with one carload sale, an uncovered offer to sell one carload, and an unfilled bid to buy one carload.

The Cheddar barrel cheese price, which had risen to $1.86 per pound on Friday, Nov. 4, lost 3 cents during Wednesday’s session. The price drop came as a result of an uncovered offer to sell two carloads.

Busy butter market

After 10 carload sales of AA butter on Wednesday, the week’s total rose to 15 sales. The price ticked up to 1 cent to close at $1.91 per pound.

For Grade A non-fat dry milk, the 11 carload sales on Wednesday raised the week’s total to 14 spot market sales. The price slipped by .50 cent to 87.25 cents per pound on a market day which included an unfilled bid to buy one carload.

Steady futures prices

With offsetting spot market prices for dairy commodities, the Class III milk futures had only minor changes in the per hundred prices in trading on Wednesday afternoon. The November 2016 price of $16.81 per hundred was the highest on the trading board.

Except for the $15.78 to $15.95 range in the Class III futures for January through May of 2017, all of the prices for other months through October of 2018 were in the $16s per hundred. Except for December of 2016, trading in the Class III futures was relatively light on Wednesday.

Contrary to the Class III milk futures, the November 2016 price of 35 cents per pound for dry whey futures was the lowest on the trading board on Wednesday. For all months of 2017, the prices stood between 35.75 and 38.65 cents per pound.

October class prices

For milk shipped in October, the national Class III milk base price was $14.82 per hundred. This was a decrease of $1.57 from September and of 64 cents from October of 2015.

In Class II (soft dairy products), the October price was $14.09 per hundred. This was a decrease of 57 cents from September and of $2.35 from October of 2015.

The October Class IV (butter and milk powders) price was $13.66 per hundred. That was a decrease of 59 cents from September and of $2.77 per hundred from October of 2015.

Source: Wisconsin State Farmer

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were higher, buying back part of Wednesday’s post-USDA report losses. November was up $.02 at $16.81, December was $.17 higher at $16.65, January was up $.18 at $15.96, and February was $.17 higher at $15.98.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.9425. Barrels were four cents lower at $1.79 with four loads sold. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.795.

Butter was $.045 higher at $1.955. There were a total of 11 loads sold, one at $1.955 and nine at $1.9625. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $1.955. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.97.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.0075 at $.88 with one load sold. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.88. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $.89.

The USDA says cash butter for the week ending November 5th averaged $1.87 per pound, up $.05 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar came out at $1.64, $.037 higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.60, an increase of $.024. Dry whey was pegged at $.357, up $.012. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.911, down $.001.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture reports nonfat dry milk during the week ending November 4th averaged $.9081, $.0147 higher. Sales of nearly 11 million pounds were up sharply from the previous week.’

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were pressured by profit taking ahead of the new USDA supply and demand numbers Wednesday. November was down $.18 at $16.79, December was $.26 lower at $16.46, January was down $.24 at $15.83, and February was $.27 lower at $15.82.

Cash cheese blocks were up $.0025 at $1.9325. There were three loads sold, one at $1.93 and two at $1.92. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.9325.

Barrels held at $1.86. There were a total of seven loads sold, including three at $1.86. The last uncovered offer was for one load, also at $1.86.

Butter was $.0025 lower at $1.90 with one load sold.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0175 higher at $.8775. There were two trades, one each at $.8625 and $.875. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.8775. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $.885.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were higher, seeing continued follow through buying from last week’s rally. The USDA’s monthly supply and demand report is out Wednesday. November was up $.17 at $16.97, December was $.27 higher at $16.72, January was up $.14 at $16.07, and February was $.11 higher at $16.09.

Cash cheese blocks were $.03 higher at $1.93. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $1.93. Barrels were unchanged at $1.86.

Butter was up $.01 at $1.9025. There were four loads sold at $1.9025, along with one at $1.895 and one at $1.90. The last unfilled bid was on three loads at $1.9025. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.95.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0125 higher at $.86. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.86. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.875.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Prices at bumper Global Dairy Trade auction equivalent to 37c/L

This compares to a merger 1.4% rise at the previous auction on October 18. Today’s auction saw a staggering 19.8% rise in Whole Milk powder prices with the product trading at $3,317/t equivalent to 37c/L, based on Irish constituents.

Key Results

• AMF index up 2.6%, average price US$5,146/MT
• Butter index up 4.0%, average price US$4,146/MT
• BMP index down 5.4%, average price US$2,248/MT
• Ched index up 0.9%, average price US$3,332/MT
• LAC index down 4.0%, average price US$755/MT
• RenCas index down 4.8%, average price US$6,025/MT

SMP index up 6.5%, average price US$2,329/MT

WMP index up 19.8%, average price US$3,317/MT

The latest figures from New Zealand show that Fonterra’s milk collections were back 2pc in September, while its Australian collections dropped 9pc.

The figures for September show that the wet spring the North Island experience had a knock-on effect on production and in turn the country’s main processor Fonterra has reduced its forecasted milk volumes.

It said that dairy milk volumes across the central and upper North Island were down significantly in the early part of October and this had continued, particularly in the main dairying region of Waikato, where dairy milk volumes are down 14pc on last year. Some 34pc of New Zealand’s dairy herds are located in the region.

Now it is predicting that it will take in 1.46m kg of milk solids, down from a previously predicted intake of 1.523m kg.

Meanwhile, Fonterra Australia has advised suppliers that it has increased its average farmgate milk price and increased its forecast closing price for the season.

Fonterra Australia Managing Director René Dedoncker said that this revised price reflected the strengthening global dairy prices.

“Although the global market remains volatile, since the beginning of the season, global milk supply has continued to decline significantly while demand has remained relatively stable.

“We have seen positive movement in GlobalDairyTrade auction prices through August and September, with a 26pc increase in the GDT price index since July, although the strong Australian dollar has offset some of the commodity market gains.”

Source: Independent.IE

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were lower on follow through selling. November was down $.06 at $15.41, December was $.10 lower at $15.18, January was down $.05 at $15.33, and February was $.04 lower at $15.52.

Cash cheese was lower. Blocks were down $.01 at $1.67 with one load sold. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.675. Barrels were $.015 lower at $1.575. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.575.

Butter was unchanged at $1.755. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.70. The last uncovered offer was for three loads at $1.7925.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 lower at $.88 with four loads sold. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $.88. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $.885.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

In Class III trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were down on profit taking after a couple of days of gains. October was down $.03 at $14.70, November was $.14 lower at $15.47, December was down $.21 at $15.28, and January was $.22 lower at $15.38.

Cash cheese blocks were steady at $1.68. There were a total of four loads sold, including one at $1.68. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.69. Barrels were $.02 lower at $1.59 with one load sold. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.60.

Butter was down $.0125 at $1.75 and a half with one load sold.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.01 at $.8825. There was one load sold at $.88. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.8825. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.89.

The USDA reports butter for the week ending October 15th averaged $1.85 per pound, down $.094 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar came out at $1.58, $.044 lower, and 500 pound barrels averaged $1.54, up $.002. Dry whey was pegged at $.325, $.016 higher. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.922, down $.012.

For November, the USDA has the base Class I milk price at $14.78 per hundredweight, down $1.82 from October. The skim price is set at $7.79, $0.99 lower.

California’s Department of Food and Agriculture reports the state’s average nonfat dry milk price for the week ending October 14th was $.899 per pound, down $.024 on the week, with sales of just over 8 million pounds.

Source: Brownfield Ag News