Dairy prices rose by 2.7 per cent at the latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction to reach an average of US$3587 ($4888) per tonne.

In the first price lift  in four auctions since early February, all product categories increased with New Zealand’s key product whole milk powder up 0.9 per cent.

Skim milk powder was up 3.6 per cent, butter 2.9 per cent, anhydrous milk fat 5.3 per cent, rennet casein 3.1 per cent and lactose jumped 14.8 per cent.

Federated Farmers dairy chairman Chris Lewis said the GDT result was positive and welcome, but questioned whether any monetary gains were cancelled out by recent lifts in the dollar.

“In the last few weeks I have seen the New Zealand dollar rise as well, so the gains back into New Zealand dollars won’t be as much as we are hoping.”

He said prices over the past few months had been very consistent, which farmers liked.

“Long may it continue.”

Farmers would also be starting to think about what the opening pay out forecast for the new season would be, he said.

At this late stage in the season, most dairy companies would have sold close to 100 per cent of their product and may start  forward selling for the new season.

“The Northern Hemisphere is also in the busiest time of the year with calving and full production and for prices to be holding up, it’s a great indicator as normally you expect it to dip off a little bit at the moment.”

Source: stuff.co.nz

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Dairy prices were up Tuesday. Class Three April milk was up $.06 at $14.48 a hundredweight.  May was up $.15 to $14.95. June was up $.21 to 15.37. July was up $.16 to $15.90.  The milk futures from August through next March closed between eight and seventeen cents higher.

Grade AA Butter was up $.0075 at $2.2925 per pound.  Seven carloads sold between $2.2850 and $2.2925. Barrels were up $.02 to $1.48 per pound.  Thirteen carloads sold with prices from $1.46 to $1.48.  40-pound blocks were up $.0250 at $1.63 per pound.   One carload sold at $1.6075. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0375 at $.77 per pound.  Five carloads sold with prices ranging from $.76 to $.77. Dry whey was up $.0025 to $.3075 cents per pound.  One carload sold at $.31 cents per pound.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Dairy prices were up Tuesday.  Class Three April milk was up $.06 at $14.48 a hundredweight.  May was up $.15 to $14.95. June was up $.21 to 15.37. July was up $.16 to $15.90.  The milk futures from August through next March closed between eight and seventeen cents higher.

Grade AA Butter was up $.0075 at $2.2925 per pound.  Seven carloads sold between $2.2850 and $2.2925. Barrels were up $.02 to $1.48 per pound.  Thirteen carloads sold with prices from $1.46 to $1.48. 40-pound blocks were up $.0250 at $1.63 per pound.   One carload sold at $1.6075. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0375 at $.77 per pound.  Five carloads sold with prices ranging from $.76 to $.77. Dry whey was up $.0025 to $.3075 cents per pound.  One carload sold at $.31 cents per pound.

Despite February all milk prices showing a continued decline, March Class III and Class IV show early indications of a slow down in that price drop. March Class III was $0.82 higher and Class IV was $0.17 higher than the previous m-onth. Predicted mailbox prices for Pennsylvania based on Class III and Class IV prices will continue to fluctuate between $15.50 and $16.75 for the next several months (Gould, 2018).

The Penn State Extension Dairy Team recently completed the collection of 2017 actual costs during our 2018 cash flow planning season. To reflect the changes in dairy operations, the 3 year average breakeven Pennsylvania IOFC breakeven and milk margin breakeven have been adjusted to $9.00/milk cow/day and $12.33/cwt, respectfully. this encompasses year end actual data from 2015 thru 2017. Since December, Pennsylvania average IOFC has been below this three year average. Each farms breakeven, received milk price, production, and feed costs will be unique. Tracking indvidual IOFC and/or milk margin monthly will help guide management decisions to weather the current downturn.

Table 1: 12 month Pennsylvania and U.S. All Milk Income, Feed Cost, Income over Feed Cost ($/milk cow/day)

¹Based on corn, alfalfa hay, and soybean meal equivalents to produce 75 lbs. of milk (Bailey & Ishler, 2007)

²The 3 year average actual IOFC breakeven in Pennsylvania from 2015-2017 was $9.00 ± $1.67 ($/milk cow/day) (Beck, Ishler, Goodling, 2018).

Table 2: 12 month Pennsylvania and U.S. All Milk Price, Feed Cost, Milk Margin ($/cwt for lactating cows)

¹Based on corn, alfalfa hay, and soybean meal equivalents to produce 75 lbs. of milk (Bailey & Ishler, 2007)

²The 3 year average actual Milk Margin breakeven in Pennsylvania from 2015-2017 was $12.33 ± $2.29 ($/cwt) (Beck, Ishler, Goodling, 2018).

Figure 1: 12 month PA Milk Income and Income over Feed Cost

²The 3 year average actual IOFC breakeven in Pennsylvania from 2014-2016 was $8.97 ± $1.76 ($/milk cow/day) (Beck, Ishler, Goodling, 2017).

Figure 2: 24 month Actual and Predicted* Class III, Class IV, and Pennsylvania Average Mailbox Price ($/cwt)

*Predicted values based on Class III and Class IV futures regression (Gould, 2018).

Table 3: 24 month Actual and Predicted* Class III, Class IV, and Pennsylvania Average Mailbox Price ($/cwt)

*Italicized predicted values based on Class III and Class IV futures regression (Gould, 2018).

Data sources for price data

All Milk Price: Pennsylvania and U.S. All Milk Price (USDA, 2018)

Predicted Class III, Class IV, and Pennsylvania Mailbox Price (average of the Eastern and Western PA mailbox Price) (Gould, 2018)

Alfalfa Hay: Pennsylvania and U.S. monthly Alfalfa Hay Price (USDA, 2018)

Corn Grain: Pennsylvania and U.S. monthly Corn Grain Price (USDA, 2018)

Soybean Meal: Feed Price List (Ishler, 2018) and average of Decatur, Illinois Rail and Truck Soybean Meal, High Protein prices, National Feedstuffs (Gould, 2018).

Source: PennState Extension

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Milk was up but the butter prices were down Monday.   Class Three April milk was up $.01 at $14.42 a hundredweight.  May was up $.10 to $14.80. June was up $.06 to 15.16. July was up $.04 to $15.74.  The milk futures from August through next March closed between one and five cents higher.

Grade AA Butter was down $.0025 at $2.2850 per pound.  Two carloads sold at that price. Barrels were unchanged at $1.46 per pound.  Seven carloads sold at that price. 40-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.6050 per pound.   No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.7325 per pound.  Three carloads sold at that price. Dry whey was unchanged at $.3050 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III milk futures closed mixed Thursday as cash prices remain flat to slightly lower. The USDA reports bi-weekly skim milk powder prices remain relatively flat on the international market while cheese and butter continue to see gains. April milk closed up $0.01 at $14.41. May closed down $0.04 at $14.64. June milk was down $0.04 at $15.02. July milk down $0.02 at $15.55. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed unchanged to two cents higher.

Grade AA Butter was down $0.02 at $2.30. Barrels were down $0.0175 at $1.46. Eleven loads sold ranging from $1.46 to $1.4775. 40 # blocks were down $0.02 at $1.62. Nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $0.7350. Dry whey was unchanged at $0.3050 cents.

Some pressure is still expected to build on global commodity prices in this year’s second quarter, in line with the northern hemisphere milk peak, Rabobank’s latest dairy quarterly says.

The export engine had been ”running on most cylinders” since mid-2017.

Apart from New Zealand, where dairy farmers had battled with one of the more disruptive seasons in recent times, milk production had been growing in all key export regions.

However, the bank did not see the northern hemisphere peak milk flows completely overwhelming the global market.

European Union milk production growth started 2018 on a high note but was also expected to trend lower throughout the year.

Looking further afield, Rabobank forecast combined year-on-year milk production growth across the ”Big 7” – EU, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay – to moderate through 2018.

Building on-farm margin pressure was a key driver of slowing year-on-year gains in global milk production.

Farm-gate milk prices had retreated in most export regions and had fallen by as much as 15% in some areas since the start of 2018.

Nevertheless, milk supply growth was outstripping import demand and would continue to do so through the second-quarter.

As a result, that would limit the upside in global commodity prices and could lead to some downward price pressure.

Over the past quarter, Chinese buyers had done ”most of the heavy lifting” in terms of purchasing. Active buying from the world’s largest import market always helped to keep global markets in balance.

The global economy continued to show broad-based growth, which was an important stimulant for dairy demand growth, the report said.

Rabobank saw global economic growth accelerating mildly in 2018. According to anecdotal evidence, consumer demand in southeast Asia generally remained robust.

In contrast, economic settings and weak consumer spending in some economies across the Middle East and North Africa were key reasons for less robust dairy demand volume growth.

Import buyers elsewhere had largely been on the sidelines, given the luxury of high stocks and growing year-on-year milk production.

On the upside for global pricing, import buyers might begin to accelerate purchasing in order to get some short-term inventory cover, with expectations of a shift in the balance coming in the second half of 2018.

Ahead of the European peak, intervention stocks of SMP remained a burden on protein prices.

Despite healthy bid volumes to purchase aged product at recent tenders, the European Commission had not yet found an appetite to sell at the offer prices, resulting in only small quantities exiting warehouses.

A tweak in the tender system would limit further stock accumulation this year, meaning peak milk supply would need to find alternative streams.

Source: Rural Life

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, dairy markets were mixed.   Class Three milk for April was down $.03 at $14.43 a hundredweight.  May was down $.02 to $14.85. June was up $.04 to 15.23. July was up $.02 to $15.69.  The milk futures from August through January closed between zero and one cent lower.

Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.32 per pound.  Twenty-three carloads sold with prices from $2.31 to $2.33. Barrels were unchanged at $1.4775 per pound.  Six carloads sold with prices ranging from $1.4775 to $1.48.  40-pound blocks were up $.0375 at $1.64 per pound.   One carload sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0075 to $.7350 per pound.  Five carloads sold with prices between $.7350 and $.7450. Dry whey was down $.01 at $.30 cents per pound.  One carload sold at that price.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Monday, the dairy markets were mostly up.   Class Three milk for April was up $.05 at $14.46 a hundredweight.  May was up $.17 to $14.87. June was up $.14 to 15.19. July was up $.10 to $15.67.  The milk futures from August through next February closed between three and nine cents higher.

Grade AA Butter was up $3.25 at $2.32 per pound.  Twelve carloads sold with prices from $2.30 to $2.32. Barrels were up $.0275 at $1.4775 per pound. Ten carloads sold with prices ranging from $1.4775 to $1.4875. 40-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.6025 per pound.   No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.7275 per pound.  No sales were recorded. Dry whey was down $.01 at $.31 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

Dairy product prices fell at the Global Dairy Trade auction, dragged lower by an unexpected plunge in anhydrous milk fat.

The GDT price index slipped 0.6 percent from the previous auction two weeks ago. The average price was US$3,477 a tonne. Some 17,222 tonnes of product was sold, down from 18,635 tonnes two weeks ago.

Whole milk powder rose 1.6 percent to US$3,278 a tonne.

“Fonterra did release its February milk production data yesterday, which showed its collections were down 4 percent year on year,” Amy Castleton, AgriHQ dairy analyst, said in a note. “This likely provided support to whole milk powder prices.”

At the latest GDT auction, anhydrous milk fat sank 7 percent to US$5,806 a tonne, while skim milk powder slid 1.8 percent to US$1,849 a tonne.

“Anhydrous milk fat was expected to hold relatively steady over the next few months, as demand has been steady and supply is limited, especially from New Zealand,” Castleton said. “There was less AMF sold at this event than at the previous event—though still 42 percent more than at the same event a year ago.”

“AMF prices are now at about the same level they were a year ago,” she added.

Meanwhile, rennet casein rallied 12.1 percent to US$5,668 a tonne, while butter climbed 4.1 percent to US$5,494 a tonne.

Cheddar rose 2.2 percent to US$3,679 a tonne, while lactose rose 1.1 percent to US$549 a tonne, and buttermilk powder added 1 percent to US$1,988 a tonne.

The New Zealand dollar last traded at 72.61 US cents as of 12.52pm in New York, compared with 72.13 US cents at the previous close in Wellington.

There were 123 winning bidders out of 169 participating at the 16-round auction. The number of registered bidders rose to 514, up from 513 at the previous auction.

Source: NZ Herald

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Thursday, the dairy markets were down.  Class Three milk for April was down $.08 at $14.38 a hundredweight.  May was down $.06 to $14.58. June was down $.08 to 14.92. July was down $.03 to $15.49.  August was up $.02 to $15.84, but the milk futures from September through January were all down from one to four cents and slightly up next February and March.

Grade AA Butter lost much of Wednesday’s $.0950 gain, falling $.0475 to $2.2875 per pound. Thirteen carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.29 to $2.2975. Barrels were down $.0025 at $1.4475 per pound. Two carloads sold at that price. 40-pound blocks were up $.0050 at $1.5575 per pound.   No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0125 at $.72 per pound.  Two carloads sold at $.7175 and $.72 per pound. Dry whey was up $.0050 at $.2850 cents per pound.  One carload sold at that price.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the dairy markets were mostly up again Wednesday.   Class Three milk for April was up $.02 at $14.46 a hundredweight.  May was up $.18 to $14.64. June was up $.17 to 15.00. July was up $.09 to $15.52.  Milk futures from August through December were all up from three to seven cents and unchanged for January and February 2019.

Grade AA Butter was up $.0950 at $2.3350 per pound.  Twelve carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.30 to $2.34. Barrels were up $.0050 at $1.45 per pound. Five carloads sold with prices from $1.4450 to $1.45.  40-pound blocks were up $.0025 at $1.5525 per pound.   No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0175 at $.7075 per pound.  Three carloads sold between $.6975 and $.71 per pound. Dry whey was unchanged at $.28 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

On the back of falling milk prices and increasing feed costs for dairy cattle, in February 2018 USDA’s Dairy Margin Protection Program (MPP) national dairy production margin fell to the lowest level since June 2016 at $6.88 per hundredweight. The February margin is down 15 percent from the prior month and down 35 percent from last year. The $7, $7.50 and $8 coverage options all triggered program payments for February. Farmers enrolled at the $7, $7.50 and $8 coverage options will be eligible for a program payment of 12 cents, 62 cents and $1.12 per hundredweight, respectively. For a farm covering 5 million pounds of milk, these MPP payment represents $500 for $7 coverage to nearly $4,700 for $8 coverage.

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 made several changes to the MPP program including making the program calculate margins monthly, increasing the catastrophic coverage level to $5 per hundredweight for some farmers, and significantly reducing the buy-up premium rates. Dairy producers are expected to be given an opportunity to re-enroll in MPP for the 2018 coverage year following these congressional modifications.

MPP was authorized in the 2014 farm bill and offers dairy producers coverage against declines in the national dairy production margin, i.e. the difference between the national average all-milk price and average feed costs. For more information on MPP, visit USDA’s Farm Service Agency MPP landing page. An award-winning MPP decision tool, developed by University of Illinois-led National Coalition for Producer Education, is available here and may be used to forecast MPP margins for the remainder of the 2018 coverage year. 

Source: fb.org

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange  Class III milk futures closed mostly lower Thursday following lower global price reports. March milk closed unchanged at $14.23. April down $0.07 at $14.27. May closed down $0.06 at $14.27. June milk was down $0.07 at $14.66. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed three to five cents lower.

Grade AA Butter was up $0.03 at $2.2150. Twenty loads sold ranging from $2.19 to $2.2150.  Barrels were down $0.0350 at $1.44. Ten loads were sold ranging from $1.44 to $1.47. 40 # blocks were unchanged at $1.53. Nonfat dry milk was down $0.0075 at $0.69. Three loads were sold at $0.69. Dry whey was down $0.0050 at $0.2850 cents. One load was sold at that price.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Class III milk futures closed mixed Wednesday with strength in EU prices and active butter trading cancelled out by an inactive trading session ahead of the holiday. March milk closed up a penny at $14.23. April down $0.02 at $14.34. May closed down $0.06 at $14.33. June milk was down a nickel at $14.73. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed a nickel lower to a penny higher.

Grade AA Butter was up $0.0050 at $2.1850. Forty loads sold ranging from $2.1772 to $2.20. Barrels were down $0.0250 at $1.4750. Ten loads were sold ranging from $1.4775 to $1.50. 40 # blocks were down $0.0150 at $1.53. On load was sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $0.6975. Seven loads were sold ranging from $0.69 to $0.6975. Dry whey was unchanged at $0.29 cents.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Class III milk futures remained relatively flat ahead of the Easter holiday Tuesday. March milk closed unchanged at $14.22. April was down $0.02 at $14.36. May closed $0.05 higher to $14.40. June milk was up $0.05 at $14.39. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed unchanged to three cents a hundredweight higher.

Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.18. Barrels were unchanged at $1.50. 40 # blocks were unchanged at $1.5450. Nonfat dry milk was up $0.0050 at $0.6975. Eight loads were sold ranging from $0.6950 to $0.6975. Dry whey was up $0.0025 at $0.29 cents. One load sold at $0.29.

Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) has accepted 17 requests for export assistance from Dairy Farmers of America, Northwest Dairy Association (Darigold), Tillamook County Creamery Association and United Dairymen of Arizona. These cooperatives have contracts to sell 2.361million pounds (1,071 metric tons) of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheese, and 220,462 pounds (100 metric tons) of butter to customers in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. The product has been contracted for delivery in the period from March through June 2018.

CWT-assisted member cooperative 2018 export sales total 25.234 million pounds of American-type cheeses, and 4.896 million pounds of butter (82% milkfat) to 18 countries on four continents. These sales are the equivalent of 343.081 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. Totals adjusted for cancellations.

Assisting CWT members through the Export Assistance program in the long term helps member cooperatives gain and maintain market share, thus expanding the demand for U.S. dairy products and the U.S. farm milk that produces them. This, in turn, positively affects all U.S. dairy farmers by strengthening and maintaining the value of dairy products that directly impact their milk price.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation.

Source: CWT

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Monday, Milk futures were up but the rest of the dairy markets were mostly down. Class Three milk for March was up $.01 at $14.22 a hundredweight.  April was up $.15 at $14.38. May was up $.15 to $14.34. June was up $.11 to 14.73.  Milk futures from July through next March were all up from one to six cents.

Grade AA Butter was down $.01 at $2.18 per pound.  Two carloads were sold with prices at $2.1775 to $2.18. Barrels were down $.01 at $1.50 per pound. Three carloads sold at that price.  40-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.5450 per pound.   One carload sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.6925 per pound.  Five carloads sold at that price. Dry whey was unchanged at $.2875 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III milk futures closed lower Thursday ahead of a bearish cold storage report on follow through selling. March milk closed down $0.07 at $14.21. April was down $0.16 at $14.31. May closed $0.15 lower to $14.30. June milk was down $0.11 at $14.73. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed five to nine cents a hundredweight lower.

Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.1875. Barrels were unchanged at $1.5125. 40 # blocks were up unchanged at $1.5650. Nonfat dry milk was up $0.0025 at $0.6925. Dry whey was down $0.0050 at $0.2875 cents.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Class III milk futuresclosed higher Wednesday supported by strength in the cash market. March milk closed unchanged at $14.28. April was up $0.02 at $14.47. May closed $0.12 higher to $14.45. June milk was up $0.15 at $14.84. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed five to eight cents a hundredweight higher.

Grade AA Butter was up $0.0025 at $2.1875. Twelve loads were sold ranging from $2.1725 to $2.1875. Barrels were down $0.005 at $1.5125. Five loads were sold ranging from $1.5125 to $1.5150. 40 # blocks were up $0.0225 at $1.5650. One load was sold at $1.57. Nonfat dry milk was up $0.0025 at $0.69. Dry whey remained unchanged at $0.2925 cents.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday, Class III milk futures closed mostly lower as the market anticipated a bearish set of USDA numbers. March milk closed down $0.01 at $14.28. April was down $0.12 at $14.45. May closed $0.06 lower to $14.33. June milk was down $0.06 at $14.69. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed down four cents a hundredweight to a penny higher.

Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.1825. Barrels were down $0.0425 at $1.5175. Five loads were sold ranging from $1.52 to $1.54. 40 # blocks were down $0.04 at $1.5425. One load was sold at $1.53. Nonfat dry milk was down $0.0025 at $0.6875. One load was sold. Dry whey remained unchanged at $0.2925 cents.

The Global Dairy Trade auction index was down 1.2 percent from the last event at $3,632 per ton, the third consecutive decline. Skim milk powder was down 8.6 percent, while cheddar cheese was down 3.9 percent. Rennet casein dropped 2.9 percent and whole milk powder gained 0.1 percent.

Starting the week at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures were up, but butter prices were down. Class Three milk for March was up $.01 at $14.29 a hundredweight.  April was up $.24 at $14.57. May was up $.09 to $14.39. June was up $.08 to 14.75.  Milk futures from July through December were up between $.01 and $.06 cents with markets unchanged in early 2019.

Grade AA Butter was down $.0275 at $2.1825 per pound.  Fifteen carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.1775 to $2.1825. Barrels were unchanged at $1.56 per pound. No sales were recorded. 40-pound blocks were down $.0025 at $1.5825 per pound.   Two carloads sold with prices at $1.5825 and $1.59. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.69 per pound.  Two carloads traded at $.6875. Dry whey was unchanged at $.2925 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

Wednesday at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange the dairy markets were mostly up.  Class Three milk for March was up $.04 at $14.24 a hundredweight.  April was up $.22 at $14.05. May was up $.12 to $14.09. June was unchanged at 14.52.  July through November milk prices are from one to four cents down.

Grade AA Butter was up $.0025 at $2.2175 per pound.  Two carloads sold at $2.2150 and $2.2175. Barrels were up $.0250 at $1.5250 per pound. Three carloads sold at $1.51 and $1.5250. 40-pound blocks were up $.0350 at $1.5750 per pound.   Five carloads sold with prices from $1.54 to $1.5650. Nonfat dry milk was down $.0050 at $.69 per pound.  Seven carloads sold with prices ranging from $.68 to $.69 per pound. Dry whey was up $.0175 closing at $.28 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Monday, the dairy markets were mixed.   Class Three milk for March was up $.02 at $14.20 a hundredweight.  April was down $.07 at $13.83. May was down $.08 to $13.97. June was down $.12 at 14.52.   

Grade AA Butter was up $.01 at $2.2150 per pound.  Two carloads sold at $2.20 and $2.2150. Barrels were unchanged at $1.50 per pound. No sales were recorded.  40-pound blocks were down $.01 at $1.54 per pound.   No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0025 at $.6950 per pound.  Two carloads sold at $.69 and $.6950.

Dry whey was up $.0025 closing at $.2625 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

The dairy markets started the week mostly down at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.   Class Three milk for March was down $.01 at $14.18 a hundredweight.  April was down $.13 at $13.90. May was down $.11 to $14.05. June was down $.05 at 14.64.  Milk futures were down for every month through November, and up or unchanged after that.

Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.2050 per pound.  No sales were recorded. Barrels were up $.0025 at $1.50 per pound.  Eight carloads sold with prices between $1.50 and $1.5050.  40-pound blocks were down $.02 at $1.55 per pound.   Four carloads of blocks sold with prices between $1.55 and $1.5675. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0075 at $.6925 per pound.  One carload sold at that price.

Dry whey debuted on the CME cash market Monday with a closing price of $.26 cents per pound.  No sales were recorded.

 Mixed results in the dairy market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Thursday.   Class Three milk for March was up $.03 at $14.16 a hundredweight.  April was up $.08 at $14.10. May was up $.06 to $14.20. June was up $.05 at 14.68  With the exception of a penny drop in October, milk futures were up for every month through next March.  

Grade AA Butter was down $.0125 at $2.2175 per pound.  No sales were recorded. Barrels were unchanged at $1.51 per pound.  No sales were recorded.  40-pound blocks were up $.02 at $1.58 per pound.  Six carloads sold with prices between $1.5450 and $1.58. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.6475 per pound.  No sales were recorded.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will start posting cash dry whey market prices Monday.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Wednesday, the dairy markets were all down. Class Three milk for March was down $.04 at $14.13 a hundredweight.  April was down $.13 at $14.02. May was down $.11 to $14.14. June was down $.14 at 14.63  Milk futures were also down for the next nine months except for November, which was unchanged.  

Grade AA Butter was down $.0025 at $2.23 per pound.  One carload sold at $2.2350. Barrels were down $.0050 at $1.51 per pound.  Sixteen carloads of barrels sold with prices ranging from $1.51 to $1.5150. 40-pound blocks were down $.0425 at $1.56 per pound.  One carload sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.6475 per pound.  No sales were recorded.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will start posting cash dry whey market prices Monday.

It is well recognized that average GB farmgate milk prices move in line with the value returned from the market, although with a time delay. While other factors such as availability of milk supplies and delays in negotiating sales contracts can also impact on price movements, trends in AMPE and MCVE¹ provide an excellent indicator of where farmgate prices will be in 3 months’ time.

The decline in market returns during the last few months of 2017 provides a clear indication that farmgate prices would come under pressure in 2018. However, latest wholesale prices have shown an end to that downward movement, for now. Early indications suggest farm prices may settle or even move up again after the spring flush, although the deciding factor will be how wholesale markets hold up through the peak production period.

¹projected price determined by an average of AMPE and MCVE (20:80 split)

Source: dairy.ahdb.org.uk

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Monday, the dairy markets were up, except for nonfat dry milk.  Trading for butter, cheese, and powder was light. Class Three milk for March was up $.03 at $14.15 a hundredweight.  April was up $.10 at $14.19. May was up $.07 to $14.30. June was up $.03 at 14.78  Milk futures were also up or unchanged for the next nine months.

Grade AA Butter was up $.0025 at $2.2025 per pound.  One carload sold at that price. Barrels were up $.0375 at $1.5125 per pound.  Two carloads were traded at $1.49 and $1.5125. 40-pound blocks were up $.0425 at $1.6025 per pound.  One carload sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was down $.0125 to $.65 per pound.  One carload traded at that price.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Thursday, the dairy markets were mostly down.   Class Three milk for March was up $.02 at $14.04.  April was down $.11 at $14.00.  May was down $.06 to $14.19.  June was down $.06 at 14.71  Milk futures were also down or unchanged for the next nine months.

Grade AA Butter was up $.0025 at $2.18.  Thirteen carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.18 to $2.21. Barrels were up $.0025 at $1.4725.  Three carloads were traded from $1.4675 to $1.4725.  40-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.53.  No blocks were traded. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.6725 per pound.  No sales were recorded.

With milk prices falling below the cost of production, dairymen need to brace themselves to withstand financial turbulence, experts say.

Losses could extend into next year, so farmers must plan for survival until consumption unexpectedly rises or — as is more likely — production is forced to decline, said Gary Sipiorski, an economist and former banker who spoke Feb. 26 at the Oregon Dairy Farmers Association’s convention in Salem, Ore.

“Something’s got to give,” he said.

Dairy producers should “stress test” their operations to find ways of controlling production costs while planning with lenders now for potential cash flow shortages, Sipiorski said.

There are dairymen who can “crank out” milk at a lower cost, he said. For example, reducing crowding can cut down on costly metabolic problems, though producers don’t want to significantly dent their production.

“There’s a fine balance there,” Sipiorski said.

Gary Genske, a dairy farmer and certified public accountant, took a tack other than focusing on expenses.

“I’m not going to tell you how to feed your cows better, I’m not going to tell you how to breed your cows better,” he said Feb. 27 at the convention.

Dairy producers who’ve managed to stay in the business must know what they’re doing, even as financial downturns have “eaten through a lot of equity over the years,” he said.

“There are a lot of people feeling they can be the last man standing,” Genske said. “Everybody feels that way.”

While dairymen have focused on becoming more efficient, they haven’t spent enough time trying to increase the price they’re paid for milk, he said.

“That’s our fault. That’s on us,” Genske said. “It comes down to us not managing our co-ops.”

Cooperatives have “dropped the ball” in terms of making profits for their farmer members, even though that’s the theoretical purpose of such organizations, he said.

Board members who approve cooperative decisions are often too passive, allowing corporate executives to “hide behind” them, Genske said.

Genske advised against allowing cooperatives to accept more milk or make capital improvements unless the actions are shown to improve milk prices for members.

Everything on the agenda at a cooperative’s board meeting should be explained in terms of milk price impacts, he said.

“We’ve got to change the way our co-ops do business,” Genske said.

Cooperatives are often geared toward earning profits that result in executive bonuses but do little to help dairy producers, he said. “That profit does not make up for the milk price.”

Source: capitalpress.com

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Class III milk futures closed mixed Wednesday on technical selling.  March milk closed down $0.03 at $14.02. April was down $0.02 at $14.11. May closed $0.04 lower to $14.77. June milk was down $0.01 at $14.77. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed down two cents to two cents a hundredweight higher. For February, the USDA says the Class II milk price was $13.44 per hundredweight, down $0.67 from January, the Class III price was $13.40, $0.60 lower, and Class IV was $12.87, down $0.26.

Grade AA Butter was $0.0050 lower at $2.1775. Thirteen loads were sold ranging from $2.1775 to $2.1825. Barrels were unchanged at $1.47. 40 # blocks were unchanged at $1.53. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $0.6725. The USDA reports cash butter for the week ending February 24th averaged $2.11 per pound, $0.038 higher than the previous week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar were pegged at $1.53, $0.004 higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.41, an increase of $0.021. Dry whey came out at $0.255, up $.005. Nonfat dry milk averaged $0.711, unchanged from the week before.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, the dairy markets were mixed, but milk prices regained some value .   Class Three milk for February was unchanged at $13.44.  March was up $.08 at $14.08.  April was up $.17 at $14.13.  May was up $.17 to $14.29.  Milk futures were also up for the balance of this year.  

In other trading, Grade AA Butter was down $.0425 at $2.1825.  Twenty-seven carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.1825 to $2.20. Barrels were unchanged at $1.47.  Thirteen carloads were traded from $1.4650 to $1.47.  40-pound blocks were up $.0050 at $1.53.  Four carloads of blocks traded between $1.52 and $1.5350 Nonfat dry milk was down at $.0075 per pound to $.67.  One carload sold at that price.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange , the dairy markets were mostly up to start the new week.   Class Three milk for February was up $.02 at $13.44.  March was up $.10 at $13.97.  April was up $.10 at $13.96.  May was up $.06 to $14.12.  Except for June and December, milk futures were also down for the balance of 2018.  

Grade AA Butter was up $.0525 at $2.2250.  Ten carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.20 to $2.2250. Barrels were up $.01 to $1.47.  Three carloads were traded at that price.  40-pound blocks were up $.03 at $1.5250.  No trades were made. Nonfat dry milk was up at $.0075 per pound to $.68.  No sales were recorded.

 The dairy markets were down at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with the exception of barrels.  Milk prices were sharply down. Class Three milk for February was unchanged at $13.46.  March was down $.36 at $13.88.  April was down $.32 at $13.84.  May was down $.33 to $14.06.  Milk futures were also down from six to twenty-one cents for the balance of the year.

Grade AA Butter was down $.03 at $2.16.  Five carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.1550 to $2.1650. Barrels were up $.0050 to $1.49.  Eleven carloads were sold ranging from $1.4850 to $1.4925.  40-pound blocks were down $.0250 at $1.5250.  One carload of blocks sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was down $.0125 at $.6725 per pound. Four carload traded between $.67 and $.6750.

USDA officials say January milk production is up 1.8% from a year ago.  The report issued Wednesday says the 23 major milk producing states marketed 17.3 billion pounds of milk last month, and production per-cow is up 24 pounds over last January. Cow numbers were up 46,000 head over a year ago, and up 5,000 from December. The total number of cows now on U.S. farms is 9.405 million.

The top producing states continue to be California and Wisconsin, each with more than a million head of dairy cows.  The national average production per cow was 1,979 pounds of milk., production per-cow was 2,005 pounds in California and 1,995 pounds in Wisconsin. For the first time in months, California reported a bump in milk production, up 2.2%. This came on the strength of more milk per cow, up 2.4 lb/cow per day in January. Cow numbers in California continue to decline, however, down 16,000 head from a year ago.  Colorado had the highest per-cow production average at 2,230 pounds.  Michigan was close behind at 2,200 pounds per cow.

The biggest percentage jump in milk production came in Colorado, with milk up 10.4% and cow numbers up 12,000 head (7.7%). The next biggest jumps came in Utah, up 8%; in Texas, up 5.8%, and New Mexico, up 5%.

The January report provides a summary of all of 2017. For example, it shows cow number at a 10-year high, averaging 9.392 million head. Milk per cow set another record at 22,941 lb, up 12.5% over the past decade. Total milk production reached 215.5 billion lb, up 1.4% from last year, and up 13.4% over the last decade.

Read all the details here.

Weaker dairy product prices have pushed milk prices lower. The Class III price peaked last November at $16.88 and fell to $14.00 in January and February will be near $13.50. The Class IV price peaked last August at $16.61 and has been declining since to $13.13 in January and February will be near $13.00. It looked like both the Class III and Class IV prices would stay in the $13’s at least through March. But, the good news is cheese prices have improved during February and if they hold or improve more, the Class III price could reach about $14.25 in March. On the CME barrels averaged $1.3345 per pound in January but have strengthened during February starting at $1.3325 to now $1.485. The 40-pound block price averaged $1.4938 per pound in January but also strengthened during February starting at $1.4625 to now $1.55. However, the price of dry whey remains weak at around $0.25 per pound and not adding strength to the Class III price. But, the Class IV price may show only modest improvement in March to near $13.40. Butter which averaged $2.1587 per pound in January has held in the low $2.00’s and will average about the same in February. Nonfat dry milk averaged $0.6926 in January and got as high as $0.735 in February but has now fallen back to $0.685.

Dairy product production has been running well above a year ago. Compared to December a year ago increases were: butter 4.2%, American cheese 2.9% with cheddar 3.2%, total cheese 2.6%, dry whey 6.1% and nonfat dry milk 5.4%. Reports are that butter and cheese sales have picked up. Dairy product prices have also been helped by dairy exports. U.S. dairy exports finished the year strong in December. Compared to December a year ago exports of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder were 27% higher, while cheese was 4% lower exports for the year were 19% higher, butterfat exports were 18% higher and dry whey 9% higher. On a total solids basis December exports were equivalent to 16.4% of milk production compared to 14.5% a year ago. But while stocks levels have improved there remains ample stocks to dampen increases in dairy product prices. Compared to a year ago stocks were: butter 1.8% higher, American cheese 2.8% higher, total cheese 6.9% higher, dry whey 49.8% higher and nonfat dry milk 46.5% higher.

How milk prices play out from here out will of course depend upon the level of milk production, domestic sales and exports. USDA has lower their increase in 2018 milk production from 1.8% earlier to now 1.5%. USDA forecasts the average number of milk cows for the year to increase slightly to 0.2% which is reasonable considering low milk prices will likely result in some producers exiting and a slowdown in dairy expansions. USDA forecasts milk per cow to increase just 1.3% which also is reasonable considering some forage quality issues particularly in the Northeast and Upper Midwest will impact milk per cow until the new crop this summer, plus lower returns over feed cost will result in some producers reducing the amount of grain or dairy concentrates fed. So we can expect milk prices to continue to improve as we move through year especially if the increase in milk production does stay well below 2%.

However, USDA’s latest milk production report estimates January milk production to be up relatively high from a year ago with a 1.8% increase. Milk cow numbers have increased for three consecutive months with January numbers 46,000 head higher than a year ago for an increase of 0.5%. Milk per cow was 1.3% higher. California after experiencing milk production running below year ago levels for about two years experienced a 2.2% increase. In recent months Idaho had shown little growth in milk production but January’s production was up 2.1%. New Mexico had a 5.0% increase and Texas 5.8%. The Northeast had modest increases of 1.2% in Michigan, 1.4% in Pennsylvania and New York had a 3.3% decline. Other than Iowa with a 3.7% increase other Midwest states had relatively small increases of 0.8% in Minnesota, 1.8% in South Dakota and just 0.4% in Wisconsin.

Last year butter and cheese sales had only a modest increase. But, with continued growth in the economy and a higher Consumer Confidence Index and a Restaurant Performance Index the sales growth this year could be stronger. Dairy exports will face strong competition this year particularly from the EU. Milk production is increasing in the EU and increased exports of cheese as well as skim milk powder are expected and competing with the U.S. for markets. Drought has resulted in New Zealand’s milk production to fall below a year ago, but EU’s increase will more than offset New Zealand’s decrease.

But, as of now the dairy outlook appears a little brighter than last month. Class III dairy futures continue to improve reaching the $15’s by July, and the low $16’s by October with an average of about $15.00 for the year. I could see a similar price pattern, if not even a little higher the last half of the year, if the increase in milk production remains well below 2% and dairy exports still show growth in 2018. But, Class III will still average well below the $16.17 average last year. Class IV dairy futures show a slow increase as we move through the year staying in the $13’s for the first half of the year and only improving to the $14’s for the second half and averaging about $14.00 for the year compared to $15.16 last year. Class IV will get some support from butter prices that likely will stay above $2.00 per pound but nonfat dry milk prices which depend heavily upon exports may show only modest strength as we move through the year.

Source: UW Extension

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the dairy markets were mostly up on trading Wednesday. Class Three milk for February was down $.02 at $13.46.  March was up $.03 at $14.24.  April was up $.01 at $14.16.  May was down $.03 to $14.39.  June and July Milk futures were up but the balance of the year was down.

Grade AA Butter was up $.05 at $2.19.  Fourteen carloads were sold with prices ranging from $2.15 to $2.19. Barrels were up $.0025 to $1.4850.  Six carloads were sold ranging from $1.4825 to $1.4850.  40-pound blocks were up $.0050 at $1.55.  One carload of blocks sold at that price. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0025 at $.6850 per pound. One carload traded at that price.

Following the Presidents’ Day holiday Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closed mostly higher Tuesday on technical buying. February milk closed down $0.01 at $13.48. March was up $0.11 at $14.21. April closed $0.09 higher to $14.15. May milk was up $0.08 at $14.42. The rest of the 2018 milk futures closed two to nine cents a hundredweight higher.

Grade AA Butter was $0.04 higher at $2.14. Fourteen loads were sold ranging from $2.12 to $2.15. Barrels were up $0.0025 at $1.4825. Three loads were sold at $1.4825. 40 # blocks were up $0.0050 at $1.5450. Nonfat dry milk was dropped $0.0225 to $0.6825. Six loads were sold ranging from $0.68 to $0.6875. The Global Dairy Trade auction index was down 0.5 percent from the last event at $3,623 per ton, the first decline since December 2017. Skim milk powder was down 3 percent, while anhydrous milk fat was down 1.9 percent. Cheddar cheese drop 1.3 percent and butter gained 1.1 percent