On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures started the week with limited activity, mostly to the higher side, while cash trade was mostly unchanged. Class III milk markets were 4 cents lower in March, even in April, and 1-4 cents higher May-December 2019. Second quarter prices are averaging $15.09 per cwt. The 2^ndhalf closed at $16.22 per cwt. Class IV markets were 3-7 cents softer in the 2^ndand ended at $16.06 per cwt. The 2^ndhalf was all left unchanged at an average price of $16.66. 

Dry whey unchanged at $0.34. Two sales were made at $0.34 and $0.3425. Blocks down $0.0150 at $1.52. Seven trades were made ranging from $1.5125 to $1.52. Barrels unchanged at $1.3675. Butter up $0.01 at $2.2675. Nonfat dry milk unchanged at $0.9750.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures closed lower Thursday ahead of USDA’s cold storage report. Blocks and Barrels held down Class III milk. March Class III milk down a dime at $15.09. April down 17 cents at $14.98. May down 12 cents at $15.14. June down 11 cents at $15.46. Second half average is still holding well. July – December is averaging $16.21/cwt. Class IV milk only traded in two months today. Off 12 cents in May and 9 cents in July.  April Class IV milk was unchanged at $15.89/cwt. 

Dry whey unchanged at $0.35. Blocks down $0.0275 at $1.5525. One trade was made at that price. Barrels down $0.0225 at $1.4275. Eight trades were made ranging from $1.4275 to $1.45. Butter unchanged at $2.2575. Five trades were made ranging from $2.2575 to $2.2675. Nonfat dry milk unchanged at $0.9750. Four trades were made ranging from $0.9650 to $0.975.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange  Class III milk futures moved higher supported on Wednesday with a higher cheese trade while Class IV milk fell as butter declined in price. March class III milk futures up seven cents at $15.19. April 14 higher at $15.15. May milk up nine cents at $15.26. June up eight at $15.57. July through October contracts four to seven cents higher.

Dry whey unchanged Wednesday at $0.35. Blocks up $0.01 at $1.58. Barrels up $0.02 at $1.45. 10 trades were made, ranging from $1.43 to $1.45. Butter down $0.0375 at $2.2575. Eight trades made, with a range of $2.2575 to $2.30. Nonfat dry milk steady at $0.9750. Three trades, ranging from $0.97 to $0.9750

Dairy product prices increased at the Global Dairy Trade auction, moving higher for the seventh straight time, led by a rally in whole milk powder.

The GDT price index climbed 3.3 per cent from the previous auction two weeks ago. The average price was US$3,309 a tonne, compared with US$3,271 a tonne two weeks ago. Some 23,930 tonnes of product was sold, down from 25,324 tonnes two weeks ago.

Whole milk powder jumped 6 per cent to US$3,186 a tonne.

“Whole milk powder demand is robust at present and this is a very strong result seeing as milk continues to flow (albeit heat impacted in recent weeks) and product volumes are plentiful,” Rabobank dairy analyst Emma Higgins said in a note.

At the latest GDT auction, butter milk powder—which was not offered at the previous event—soared 11 per cent to $3,480 a tonne.

Cheddar jumped 6 per cent to US$3,888 a tonne, while anhydrous milk fat gained 3.9 per cent to US$5,837 a tonne.

Butter rose 3.7 per cent to US$4,657 a tonne, while lactose added 0.6 per cent to US$1,009 a tonne.

Meanwhile, skim milk powder dropped 4.3 per cent to US$2,462 a tonne, while rennet casein slipped 0.1 per cent to US$5,649 a tonne.

For sweet whey powder, no product was offered or sold, or no price was published for the last event, or on both of the two previous events.

The New Zealand dollar last traded at 68.01 US cents as of 1.52pm in New York, compared with 68.19 US cents at the previous close in Wellington.

There were 109 winning bidders out of 176 participating at the 14-round auction. The number of registered bidders was 516, up from 513 at the previous auction.

Source: nzherald.co.nz

Falling global prices for milk powder and butter meant overall export prices dropped 1.7 percent in the December 2018 quarter, Stats NZ said today.

Due to lower export prices, and rising import prices, the terms of trade fell 3.0 percent in the December quarter, the biggest fall since the September 2015 quarter.

Despite the latest fall, the terms of trade remained near the historic high in the December 2017 quarter.

The terms of trade measures the purchasing power of New Zealand’s exports abroad and is an indicator of the state of the overall economy. A fall in the terms of trade means the country can buy fewer imports for the same amount of exports.

Overall, dairy product export prices fell 5.7 percent in the December 2018 quarter. Prices for milk powder, a key export, fell 6.2 percent; butter prices also fell from their recent high levels. Dairy product volumes fell 1.3 percent, while values fell 6.8 percent.

“While the Global Dairy Trade price index has been increasing recently, there’s often a lag between an auction price and when that order is filled,” business prices delivery manager Sarah Johnson said.

“The export price fall in the December quarter likely reflects falling global dairy auction prices between June and November 2018.”

Import prices rose 1.4 percent in the December 2018 quarter, driven mainly by crude oil, diesel, and petrol prices; petroleum and petroleum product prices rose 7.5 percent overall.

“Petroleum product prices have increased for the last five quarters. Prices for crude oil, diesel, and petrol were all up in the December quarter – 10 percent, 4.5 percent, and 3.9 percent, respectively.”

Petroleum and petroleum product volumes fell 15 percent, while values fell 8.6 percent in the latest quarter.

Source: Scoop

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures started the week mixed following the trend of the cash market.  Class III milk was weaker in the nearby months. Trading down 7 cents in March to $15.13 /cwt and down 13 cents in April to finish at $15 even. Second half was mostly unchanged. July- December averaging $16.18 / cwt Class IV milk traded 5 cents higher for April finishing the day at $16.10 and May was up 6 cents to $16.30/cwt.

Dry whey down $0.0075 at $0.3525. Seven trades were made ranging from $0.35 to $0.3550. Blocks down $0.04 at $1.57. Four trades were made ranging from $1.57 to $1.5725. Barrels up $0.02 at $1.43. Ten trades were made ranging from $1.41 to $1.43. Butter up $0.0525 at $2.34. Five trades were made ranging from $2.31 to $2.34. Nonfat dry milk up $0.0025 at $0.9875.

Corn and soybean markets were up Monday, finally breaking free of the falling wheat market.  Soybeans were up as many as 12 cents during Monday’s trade, but finished up 4 cents to 9.03 ¼ and May SBM finished up $3.10 to $310.50/ton. Corn was up 1 cent in March to 3.65 even.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Thursday, milk futures and cash dairy prices were mostly down.  April Class III milk and butter were the only gainers. March Class Three milk was down $.07 at $15.24. April was up $.03 to $15.20. May was down $.06 to $15.26. June was down $.12 to $15.58. The milk futures from July through next February ranged from zero to ten cents lower.

Dry whey was down $.0150 at $.3450 cents per pound. Fifteen sales were recorded from $.34 to $.35. Forty-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.61 per pound. No sales were recorded. Barrels were unchanged at $1.41 per pound. Ten sales were recorded at that price. Grade AA Butter was up $.0050 to $2.2650 per pound. Two sales were recorded at $2.2625 and $2.2650. Nonfat dry milk was down $.0025 to $.9875 per pound. Five sales were recorded from $.9850 to $.9875.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Wednesday, milk futures and cash dairy prices were mixed. Near-term milk futures were higher, but lower in the long term.  At the close, March settled just 4 cents higher to $15.31 per cwt. despite being 20 cents higher earlier on.  April closed 14 cents higher at $15.17 cents and May was up 5 cents. The March contract has now risen 90 cents since February 19^th. Beyond May the market wasn’t buying the move higher. June through December lost 2-6 cents per cwt. March-June settled Wednesday at $15.37 cents per cwt. The second half ended at $16.30. Class IV markets had similar results. April through September ranged from 4 cents lower to 5 cents higher. October and November added 10 and 11 cents respectively and December fell 3. March-June average for Class IV closed Wednesday at $16.13 and the second half settled at $16.78 per cwt. Spot products were active in the dry whey and Grade A nonfat dry milk markets. 

Dry whey was up $.0125 at $.36 cents per pound. Eleven sales were recorded from $.3550 to $.36. Forty-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.61 per pound. No sales were recorded. Barrels were unchanged at $1.41 per pound. No sales were recorded. Grade AA Butter was down $.0050 to $2.26 per pound. Three sales were recorded at $2.25 and $2.26. Nonfat dry milk was up $.0050 to $.99 per pound. Ten sales were recorded from $.9825 to $.9925.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Tuesday milk futures were mostly higher and cash dairy prices remain mixed.  Class III milk had nice gains in every month except February which fell a penny to $13.94. The remainder of 2019 had its fourth positive trading day to finish up as many as 20 cents. Jan – June average coming in at $14.86/cwt and Second half at $16.35. March Milk was once again the largest mover, finishing up 20 cents to $15.27. This continues a  nearly 80 cent rally since its close on Feb 20^th.  Class IV milk did not fair as well, weaker trading had forward month down7-27 cents, but March traded  unchanged at $15.88. 

Dry whey was up $.0050 at $.3475 cents per pound.Seven sales were recorded from $.3450 to $.3475. Forty-pound blocks were up $.0125 at $1.61 per pound. Two sales were recorded at $1.5975 and $1.61. Barrels were unchanged at $1.41 per pound. Eight sales were recorded at that price. Grade AA Butter was down $.0025 to $2.2650 per pound. No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was down $.0025 to $.9850 per pound. Two sales were recorded at $.9850 and $.99 cents a pound.

Milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange started the week higher while cash trade was mixed. The Class 3 markets started off the week moving higher for the 3^rd consecutive session trading anywhere from 5 to 20 cents higher across the board with most gains in the front months. Nearing expiration, the February contract was unchanged to finish at 13.95, March gained 17 cents to 15.07 and April rose 11 cents to 14.91. Including January, the first half  and second half average is now at 14.78 and 16.31. February Class III milk unchanged at $13.95. March up 17 cents at $15.07. April up 11 cents at $14.91. May up a dime at $15.18. June through October contracts were five to 10 cents higher.  Class 4 markets were fairly quiet on Monday as March was the only contract traded and lost 4 cents to 15.88. The rest of the months were unchanged.  

Dry whey down $0.0050 at $0.3425. Seven trades were made ranging from $0.3425 to $0.3450. Blocks down $0.0025 at $1.5975. Barrels up $0.0050 at $1.41. Nine trades were made ranging from $1.4025 to $1.41. Butter up $0.0075 at $2.2675. Nonfat dry milk down $0.01 at $0.9875. Five trades were made at that price.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, milk futures were mostly higher and cash dairy prices remain mixed.  Class III milk had nice gains in every month except February which fell a penny to $13.94. The remainder of 2019 had its fourth positive trading day to finish up as many as 20 cents. Jan – June average coming in at $14.86/cwt and Second half at $16.35. March Milk was once again the largest mover, finishing up 20 cents to $15.27. This continues a  nearly 80 cent rally since its close on Feb 20^th. Class IV milk did not fair as well, weaker trading had forward month down7-27 cents, but March traded unchanged at $15.88. 

Dry whey was up $.0050 at $.3475 cents per pound. Seven sales were recorded from $.3450 to $.3475. Forty-pound blocks were up $.0125 at $1.61 per pound. Two sales were recorded at $1.5975 and $1.61. Barrels were unchanged at $1.41 per pound. Eight sales were recorded at that price. Grade AA Butter was down $.0025 to $2.2650 per pound. No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was down $.0025 to $.9850 per pound. Two sales were recorded at $.9850 and $.99 cents a pound.

Fonterra is set to lift its milk price forecast this week in response to the big lift in internationally traded dairy prices since the start of the year.

Prices firmed, albeit slightly, for the sixth time in a row at last weeks’ GlobalDairyTrade auction, but the price of most of Fonterra’s key “reference” products have improved dramatically so far this year.

Since the last sale of 2018 on December 19, whole milk powder prices – which have the greatest bearing on Fonterra’s milk price – have rallied by 13 per cent to US$3022 a tonne.

Another important reference product, skim milk powder, has shot up in price by 26.3 per cent to US$2580 tonne.

Butter prices have risen by 14.4 per cent to US$4495 a tonne and anhydrous milk fat by 13.9 per cent to US$5620 a tonne.

The “reference” products comprise around 70 per cent of Fonterra’s total New Zealand production.

Last December, Fonterra downgraded its farm gate milk price forecast to a range of $6.00 to $6.30 per kg of milksolids, from a previous forecast of $6.25-$6.50, because global supply had remained stronger than demand.

Since then demand has picked up, particularly from China, and prices for skim milk powder prices have rocketed thanks to big inroads being made into European Union intervention stocks, which have in the past acted as buffer against supply tightness.

At the same time, New Zealand production has continued to surge due to favourable weather throughout most of the country during the peak months of September, October and November.

In January, production shot up by 7.7 in terms of milk solids, against the same month a year earlier, according to Dairy Companies Association (DCANZ) data.

Season-to-date NZ milk production was up 5.6 per cent and production for the 12-months to January 2019 up 3.8 per cent, also on a milksolids basis.

However, the sudden onset of very dry conditions in parts of the country since start of the year will be talking the shine off the season , which ends on May 31.

“Already very hot weather has started to put the brakes on production over February,” ASB senior rural economist Nathan Penny said.

“In addition, despite strong recent production New Zealand’s dairy herd is actually smaller than in prior seasons,” he said.

Over 2019, Penny expects supply growth to slow to around 1 per cent.

“Growth at this level across the major exporters – the EU, New Zealand and the US – won’t be enough to keep up with annual global demand growth of about 2 per cent.”

Moreover, global dairy stocks are now much lower than in previous years, he said.

Penny said conditions for a new dairy price cycle have begun to emerge; global dairy supply is tightening, with little backstop in terms of stocks.

As a result, ASB said here was “upside risk” to its 2018/19 milk price forecast of $6.25/kg. In addition, the bank has turned heavily bullish for next season, with a forecast of $7.00/kg.

“The conditions for the start of a new cycle have begun to emerge,” Penny said.

“Essentially those conditions boil down to supply growth increasingly lagging behind demand growth, with little prospect of catch up in the short-term,” he said.

Westpac says that there is now “upside risk” to its forecast of $6.30/kg for the current season.

Likewise, ANZ rural economist Susan Kilsby said there was “upside risk” to the bank’s $6.10/kg forecast.

Kilsby expects a $6.90/kg milk price for the coming 2019/20 season, based on futures market pricing and expectations that supply in the key producing counties will not grow as fast as it has done in the past.

“The big unknown is on the demand side,” she said.

ASB’s Penny said his forecasts assumed that the Chinese household sector remained a bright spot in an otherwise weaker-performing economy.

Dairy NZ’s estimate of break-even for 2018/19 is $5.40 to $5.50/kg.

Source: NZ Herald

Dairy product prices moved higher at the Global Dairy Trade auction, rising for the sixth straight time, though gains were less than expected.

The GDT price index rose 0.9 percent from the previous auction two weeks ago. The average price was US$3,271 a tonne, compared with US$3,265 a tonne two weeks ago. Some 25,324 tonnes of product was sold, up from 23,326 tonnes two weeks ago.

“Overall, while the direction of change was in line with the NZX Dairy Derivatives market expectations leading into the event, the final results were not as bullish as expected,” NZX dairy analyst Robert Gibson said in a note.

Whole milk powder eked out a 0.3 percent advance to US$3,022 a tonne.

“The increase in volumes available is likely to have moderated any further lift in whole milk powder prices,” said Mr Gibson.

At the latest GDT auction, cheddar climbed 2.9 percent to US$3,667 a tonne, while skim milk powder increased 2.8 percent to US$2,580 a tonne.

“Despite a lift in volumes, prices continued to increase which indicates strong demand side pressure for skim milk powder,” Mr Gibson noted.

Rennet casein gained 2.7 percent to US$5,740 a tonne, while butter rose 1.2 percent to US$4,495 a tonne, and anhydrous milk fat inched 0.7 percent higher to US$5,620 a tonne.

Meanwhile, lactose dropped 2.9 percent to US$998 a tonne.

Butter milk powder was not offered at this event.

For sweet whey powder, no product was offered or sold, or no price was published for the last event, or on both of the two previous events.

The New Zealand dollar last traded at 68.82 US cents as of 1.20pm in New York, compared with 68.48 US cents at the previous close in Wellington.

There were 120 winning bidders out of 169 participating at the 14-round auction. The number of registered bidders was 513, down from 529 at the previous auction.

Source: Newsroom.pro

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Milk futures closed higher Thursday while cash trade was mixed. The headline that excited the markets on Thursday was that China proposes to spend $30 billion more on US Ag imports, which could be a variety of  products. Class 3 markets traded mainly higher throughout the session with most action in the front months. February lost 6 cents to 13.95, March rose 6 cents to 14.66. and April rose 15 cents to 14.65. May up 16 cents at $14.99. June through October contracts were two to 12 cents higher.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Wednesday milk futures were mostly lower and cash dairy prices were mixed. February Class Three milk was up $.03 at $14.01. March was down $.10 at $14.60. April was down $.05 to $14.50. May was down $.04 to $14.83. The milk futures from June through next January ranged from five cents lower to five cents higher.  Class IV had a better day adding 4-19 cents in 2019.  Grade A nonfat dry milk was unchanged at 98 and three-quarters per lb.

Dry whey was up $.0050 at $.36 cents per pound. Seven sales were recorded from $.3575 to $.36. Forty-pound blocks were unchanged at $1.5950 per pound. Two sales were recorded at $1.5975 and $1.60. Barrels were down $.0150 at $1.4175 per pound. Five sales were recorded from $1.4175 to $1.4325. Grade AA Butter was up $.0075 to $2.2575 per pound. Seven sales were recorded from $2.2450 to $2.2575. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.9875 per pound. No sales were recorded.

The USDA released their December milk production reports on Wednesday. This report was delayed due to the 35 day government shutdown during December and January. Cow numbers dropped again in December and previous reports were adjusted lower. October was down 2,000 head from the prior release and November lost 6,000 additional cows. December lost 3,000 after adjustments were taken into account to 9.351 million. We have now reduced the milking herd b 16,000 head since September and 53,000 from our peak in May of 2018. 

Milk per cow grew by 21 pounds year over year in December to 1,942. Total production in December added up to 18.155 billion, a half percent above a year ago. Total milk production in the U.S. milking herd throughout 2018 came in near 217 and a half billion pounds, up nine-tenths of a percent on 2017 production. 

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Tuesday milk futures were higher and cash dairy prices were mixed. Class III milk had a nice upswing in prices after falling during morning trading. We saw gains as high as 17 cents on March Class III milk, ending the day at $14.70/cwt. February was not as robust, finishing 1 cent higher to finish at $13.98. April was up $.12 to $14.55. May was up $.07 to $14.88. The milk futures from June through next January ranged from zero to five cents higher.

Dry whey was up $.0025 at $.3550 cents per pound. Ten sales were recorded from $.3525 to $.3575. Forty-pound blocks were up $.0150 at $1.5950 per pound. One sale was recorded at $1.59. Barrels were down $.0025 at $1.4325 per pound. Eight sales were recorded at $1.4350. Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.25 per pound. Eight sales were recorded from $2.2375 to $2.25. Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.9875 per pound. One sale was recorded at $.9850.

The Global Dairy Trade Event 230 was Tuesday. The GDT Price Index climbed 0.9 percent to an average selling price of $3,271 per tonne in the auction held in the early hours of the morning. The index had surged 6.7 pct at the previous sale. Softer global supply and slower-than-expected production growth out of New Zealand, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, was supporting prices, a reverse after falling for much of 2018.

“The conditions for the start of a new cycle have begun to emerge,” said Nathan Penny, senior rural economist at ASB Bank. “Essentially those conditions boil down to supply growth increasingly lagging behind demand growth, with little prospect of catch-up in the short-term.” But the risks of a slow-down in the Chinese economy spilling over into lower household demand for dairy remained a vulnerability to ongoing price growth, he cautioned.

In total, 25,324 tonnes were sold at the latest auction, an increase of 8.6 percent from the previous one, the auction platform said on its website.

The auction results can affect the New Zealand dollar as the dairy sector generates more than 7 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.

The kiwi was trading up 0.5 percent at $0.6883 on Wednesday morning.

GDT Events is owned by New Zealand’s Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd, but operates independently from the dairy giant. The New Zealand milk co-operative, which is owned by about 10,500 farmers, controls nearly a third of the world dairy trade.

Walmart shines as holiday quarter tops forecast

U.S.-listed CRA International Inc is the trading manager for the twice-monthly Global Dairy Trade auction.

A number of companies, including Dairy America and Murray Goulburn, use the platform to sell milk powder and other dairy products.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures continued lower Thursday while cash trade was mixed but active. Class 3 markets were down across the board trading anywhere from 3 to 25 cents lower with the most action in the front months. February was down 3 cents at 13.98, march fell 22 cents to 14.56 and April fell 25 cents to 14.46. May down 23 cents at $14.82. June through October contracts five to 13 cents lower. The First and Second half averages are now at 14.54 and 16.12. Class 4 markets were quiet on Thursday as only one month traded and the rest were unchanged. The only month that traded was may which lost 15 cents to 16.15.

Dry whey up $0.01 at $0.34. One trade was made at that price. Blocks down $0.0125 at $1.58. One trade was made at $1.5925. Barrels unchanged at $1.4350. Eight trades were made ranging from $1.4325 to $1.4350. Butter up $0.0125 at $2.25. Ten trades were made ranging from $2.2350 to $2.25. Nonfat dry milk down $0.0075 at $0.9850. Twenty-three trades were made at $0.9675 to $0.9825.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Milk futures closed mostly lower Wednesday while cash trade was mixed and weekly European dairy prices were reported mostly lower. Early gains in Class III milk reversed after the CME spot products trade began. Class III milk could not sustain the gains of Tuesday. Only February showed  a gain of 1 cent to $14.01/cwt. The remaining months down 3-14 cents with March finishing the day  at $14.78. Second half is still averaging better, showing a July – December average of $16.21/ cwt.

Dry whey down $0.02 at $0.33. Fifteen trades were made ranging from $0.33 to $0.3450. Blocks up $0.0325 at $1.5925. Two trades were made at $1.58 and $1.59. Barrels up $0.0225 at $1.4350. Seven trades were made ranging from $1.42 to $1.4350. Butter down $0.0175 at $2.2375. Four trades were made ranging from $2.2375 to $2.25. Nonfat dry milk down $0.0075 at $0.9925. Two trades were made at $0.9925 to $0.9950.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Milk futures closed mixed Tuesday with sluggish cash trade.  February traded a penny higher to $14.00 per cwt. March jumped 16 cents to $14.88 per cwt. Over the last six sessions April grew 10 cents to $14.85 and the remaining months ranged from even to 7 cents higher. Class IV milk had February milk a penny lower at $15.92 per cwt. March and onward ranged from a penny lower to 11 cents higher in September. 

Dry whey down $0.0050 at $0.35.  Eight trades were made ranging from $0.35 to $0.3550. Blocks unchanged at $1.56.  Barrels up $0.01 at $1.4125.  Butter down $0.0150 at $2.2550.   Nonfat dry milk up $0.0025 at $1.00. 

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures closed mixed Monday as the market adjusts to Friday’s USDA reports.  Class 3 markets were mixed on Monday trading anywhere from 8 cents lower to 12 cents higher. February Class III milk up a penny at $13.99. March up a dime at $14.69. April down a nickel at $14.75. The first and half average are now at $14.67 and $16.22. May down 12 cents at $15.10. June through October contracts were two to eight cents lower.

Dry whey down $0.01 at $0.3550. Seven trades were made ranging from $0.3550 to $0.36. Blocks up $0.0325 at $1.56. Three trade were made ranging from $1.54 to $1.56. Barrels up $0.03 at $1.4025. Five trade were made ranging from $1.39 to $1.4025. Butter up $0.0075 at $2.2850. Two trades were made at $2.2750 and $2.2850. Nonfat dry milk up $0.0025 at $0.9975. Three trades were made at $0.9975 to $1.00.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Tuesday milk futures and cash dairy prices were mostly up. The Class 3 markets began the session lower and then moved higher after the product trade. Class 3 traded anywhere from 1 – 20 cents higher. For the front months, February was up 3 cents to 13.97, March was up 20 cents to 14.56, and April was up 16 cents to 14.79. May was up $.12 to $15.25. The milk futures from June through next January ranged from zero to eight cents higher. The 1^stand 2^ndhalf averages are now at 14.68 and 16.25. Class 4 markets were mixed to unchanged trading anywhere from 7 cents lower to 14 cents higher. February rose 5 cents to 15.95.

Dry whey was down $.02 at  $.37 cents per pound. Eleven sales were recorded from $.37 and $.3876. Forty-pound blocks were up $.0525 at $1.51 per pound.  Four sales were recorded from $1.4750 to $1.51 per pound. Barrels were up $.08 at $1.3725 per pound.  Thirteen sales were recorded from $1.2925 to $1.3725. Grade AA Butter was unchanged at $2.2850 per pound.  No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was down $.01 at $.99 per pound.  Four sales were recorded from $.99 to $.9975.

Dairy product prices rose at the Global Dairy Trade auction, moving higher for the fifth consecutive time.

The GDT price index rallied 6.7% from the previous auction three weeks ago. The average price was US$3,265 a tonne, compared with US$3,057 a tonne three weeks ago. Some 23,326 tonnes of product was sold, down from 27,909 tonnes three weeks ago.

Whole milk powder jumped 8.4% to US$3,027 a tonne.

Offer volumes for whole milk powder were down on the previous event, even though they were up 19% on the previous year, NZX dairy analyst Robert Gibson said in a note.

“Firm demand from Asian countries is likely to have helped to support prices,” according to Gibson.

At the latest GDT auction, rennet casein surged 10.9% to US$5,596 a tonne, while anhydrous milk fat climbed 5.8% to US$5,579 a tonne.

Butter rose 4.2% to US$4,445 a tonne, while skim milk powder gained 3.9 %to US$2,534 a tonne.

“Skim milk powder offer volumes leading into this event were down on the previous event, but up on the previous year,” Gibson noted.

Cheddar added 1.4% to US$3,565 a tonne, while lactose advanced 1.3% to US$1,035 a tonne.

Bucking the trend, butter milk powder declined, sliding 3.1% to US$3,158 a tonne.

The gain in rennet casein was “contrary to the decrease in value at the previous event and likely due to smaller volumes,” according to Gibson.

Meanwhile, the decline in buttermilk powder “could have been due to a lift in volumes at the event. With relatively smaller quantities of these commodities sold at the event, volume changes can have a bigger impact on prices.”

For sweet whey powder, no product was offered or sold, or no price was published for the last event, or on both of the two previous events.

The New Zealand dollar last traded at 68.32 US cents as of 1.42pm in New York, compared with 68.96 US cents at the previous close in Wellington.

There were 106 winning bidders out of 177 participating at the 15-round auction. The number of registered bidders was 529, up from 524 at the previous auction.

Source: Otago Daily Times

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures closed higher at midweek supported by a favorable cash trade and improving world prices.  February gained a penny to $13.94. March-June traded 9-16 cents while the remaining months were 1-4 cents higher. Class IV markets were up 9-20 cents in February through May while June and beyond ranged from even to 14 cents higher. 

Dry whey up $0.0125 at $0.39.  Three trades were made ranging from $0.3850 to $0.39. Blocks unchanged at $1.4575.  One trade was made at that price. Barrels unchanged at $1.2925.  Three trades were made at that price. Butter up $0.0075 at $2.2850.  Two trades were made at $2.2750 and $2.2850. Nonfat dry milk up $0.02 at $1.00.  One trade was made at that price.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, milk futures closed lower Tuesday pressured by a mostly lower cash trade and growing supplies.  February- June averaged in at $14.60/cwt and July – December at $16.18. Down 1-14 cents. February Class III milk down a penny at $13.93.  March down three cents at $14.20.  April down three cents at $14.48.  May down a nickel at $15.00.  June through October contracts was seven to 10 cents lower. Class IV milk had limited trades to hold steady. It still trades higher than Class III with a first-half average of $16.18/cwt and Second half at $16.72. For Commodity Risk Management Group, this is Jenny Wackershauser on Know your markets.

Dry whey up $0.0175 at $0.3775.  Nine trades were made ranging from $0.38 to $0.39. Blocks down $0.03 at $1.4575.  Barrels down $0.0050 at $1.2925.  Four trades were made ranging from $1.2925 to $1.2975. Butter down $0.0050 at $2.2775.  Nine trades were made ranging $2.2650 to $2.2775. Nonfat dry milk down $0.01 at $0.98.  Six trades were made ranging from $0.98 to $0.9925.  

Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) member cooperatives accepted 10 offers of export assistance from CWT that helped them capture sales contracts for 1.116 million pounds (506 metric tons) of Cheddar, and Gouda cheese and 4.242 million pounds (1,924 metric tons) of whole milk powder. These products are going to customers in Asia, the Middle East, and South America. The product will be delivered during the period from March through July 2019.

CWT-assisted member cooperative 2019 export sales total 12.844 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 707,684 pounds of butter (82% milkfat) and 6.490 million pounds of whole milk powder to 18 countries in six regions. These sales are the equivalent of 181.9 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis.

Assisting CWT members through the Export Assistance program positively affects all U.S. dairy farmers and all dairy cooperatives by strengthening and maintaining the value of dairy products that directly impact their milk price. It does this by helping member cooperatives gain and maintain world market share for U.S dairy products. As a result, the program has significantly expanded the total demand for U.S. dairy products and the demand for U.S. farm milk that produces those products.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT pays export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by required documentation.

All dairy farmers and all dairy cooperatives should invest in CWT. Membership information is available on the CWT website.

It will be a big year financially for Fonterra, as the dairy co-op moves it focus to getting back to basics after a “tough” 2018.

Chief Financial Officer Marc Rivers told The Country Early Edition’s Rowena Duncum, that Fonterra had plans to pay its debt and to get back to being “the strong co-op that we are.”

As the new CFO, Rivers said his approach would be “finding the truth,” and “being the objective voice … that helps us in making better decisions.”

To achieve this, Rivers said he would surround himself “with the best possible people,” and create an environment where colleagues feel able to “speak their mind.”

“I think that’s really critical, because there are plenty of smart folks around. Just let them have their say and you’ll have a better chance of coming up with the best decision.”

Fonterra had already started making changes with more detailed annual results at the end of last year said Rivers.

‘People really appreciated the amount of disclosure that we provided.”

Also in today’s interview: Rivers talks about his background and pays tribute to former Fonterra chairman John Wilson who died earlier this week.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Milk futures started the week lower pressured by a lower cash trade. For the front months, February lost 7 cents to 13.96, march lost 15 cents to 14.24 and April lost 11 cents to 14.51. Including January’s settlement price at 13.96, the first and second half averages are now at 14.53 and 16.26

Dry whey down $0.0025 at $0.36.  Seven trades were made at that price. Blocks down $0.0125 at $1.4875.  Barrels down $0.0025 at $1.2975.  Seven trades were made ranging from $2.2975 to $2.30 Butter down $0.0075 at $2.2825.  One trade was made at $2.2850. Nonfat dry milk down $0.0125 at $0.99.  One trade was made at that price.  

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange  Class III milk futures closed lower on commercial selling and the mostly lower trade in the cash market. February was down $.01 at $14.02 and March was $.10 lower at $14.36, while April was down $.11 at $14.53 and May was $.14 lower at $15.04. January’s official settlement was at 13.96 leaving the first and second half averages now at 14.57 and 16.31. Class 4 markets were mainly lower in the front months Feb through June traded 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher and September through November traded 1 to 4 cents lower. The rest were unchanged. 

The CME spot product market was mixed as 4 of the 5 products offered traded. Cash butter was down a 1/4 cent at $2.29. One load was sold at $2.30. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.29.  Cash butter was down a 1/4 cent at $2.29. One load was sold at $2.30. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.29.  Cash cheese barrels were unchanged at $1.30 and 1/4. 17 trades were reported, including 13 at the closing price. Nonfat dry milk was 3/4 of a cent lower at $1. Three loads were sold, including one at the closing price. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.99 and 1/2. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.00 and 1/2.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Wednesday milk futures were mostly up and cash dairy prices were mixed. First half Class III milk averaged $14.64/cwt and 2^ndhalf at $16.27. Up in every month .02-.10.  February Class Three milk was down $.02 at $14.03. March was up $.07 at $14.46. April was up $.07 to $14.64. May was up $.12 to $15.18. The milk futures from June through next January ranged from unchanged to nine cents higher.

Dry whey was down $.01 at $.39 cents per pound. Two sales were recorded at $.39 and $.3950. Forty-pound blocks were up $.0250 at $1.47 per pound. Five sales were recorded from $1.45 to $1.47 per pound. Barrels were up $.04 at $1.3025 per pound. Seven sales were recorded from $1.28 to $1.3025. Grade AA Butter was up $.0075 to $2.2925 per pound. No sales were recorded. Nonfat dry milk was down $.01 at $1.0075 per pound. One sale was recorded at $1.01.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures were higher Tuesday with a mostly supportive cash market. New Zealand December exports were reported mostly higher but saw large declines in butter and skim milk powder. January class III milk futures unchanged at $13.98.  Milk prices added 7 cents in February, 15 cents in March and 9 in April. May through September contracts were three to six cents higher. Class IV markets ranged from a penny lower to 6 cents higher. Product market results had barrels jumping 5 and a ¼ cents to $1.26 and ¼ following 2 trades and four bids. 

Dry whey unchanged at $0.4050. Blocks up $0.0475 at $1.4450. Three trades were made ranging from $1.40 to $1.43. Barrels up $0.0525 at $1.2625. Two trades were made at $1.2375 and $1.24. Butter up $0.0250 at $2.2850. Two trades were made at $2.2775 and $2.28. Nonfat dry milk down $0.0025 at $1.0175.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange started the week with mixed milk futures as the government gets back to work and traders anticipate delayed reports. The January contract expires tomorrow and was unchanged on the day at 13.98 leaving the 1^sthalf average at 14.55.  February unchanged at $13.98. March down two cents at $14.24. April down a nickel at $14.48.  The second half prices continue to carry a premium over the 1^sthalf, and the second half average at 16.19.

Dry whey down $0.0050 at $0.4050. Six trades were made ranging from $0.40 to $0.4050. Blocks up $0.0075 at $1.3975. Barrels up $0.03 at $1.21. One trade was made at that price. Butter up $0.0150 at $2.26. Two trades were made at $2.2425 and $2.2550. Nonfat dry milk up $0.0075 at $1.02. One trade was made at that price.

Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) member cooperatives accepted 17 offers of export assistance from CWT that helped them capture sales contracts for 4.343 million pounds (1,970 metric tons) of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheese; 169,756 pounds (77 metric tons) of butter and 1.124 million pounds (510 metric tons) of whole milk powder. These products are going to customers in Asia, Central America, the Middle East, Oceania and South America. The product will be delivered during the period from February through July 2019.

CWT-assisted member cooperative 2019 export sales total 11.729 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 707,684 pounds of butter (82% milkfat) and 2.249 million pounds of whole milk powder to 16 countries in six regions. These sales are the equivalent of 140.6 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis.

Assisting CWT members through the Export Assistance program positively affects all U.S. dairy farmers and all dairy cooperatives by strengthening and maintaining the value of dairy products that directly impact their milk price. It does this by helping member cooperatives gain and maintain world market share for U.S dairy products. As a result, the program has significantly expanded the total demand for U.S. dairy products and the demand for U.S. farm milk that produces those products.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT pays export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by required documentation.

All dairy farmers and all dairy cooperatives should invest in CWT. Membership information is available on the CWT website.

Source: CWT

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures were lower again Thursday with a mostly inactive cash market. January was unchanged at $13.98 per cwt. February lost 3 cents while March-December 2019 ranged from 9-14 cents lower.  April down 14 cents at $14.46. May through September contracts were nine to 13 cents lower. At the close, first half 2019 prices were offering $14.48 per cwt and the second half settled at $16.16.   Class IV markets had prices as high as 7 cents in February and as low as 14 cents in July. CME spot product market results were a mixed bag. Butter added a quarter cent following two bids and settled at $2.22 and a quarter cent. Grade A nonfat dry milk traded nine loads and 1 three-quarter cents higher to $1.00 and three-quarter per lb. 

Dry whey down $0.0050 at $0.4150. Five trades were made ranging from $0.4150 to $0.4225. Blocks unchanged at $1.3750. Barrels unchanged at $1.16. Butter up $0.0025 at $2.2225. Nonfat dry milk up $0.0175 at $1.0075. Nine trades were made ranging from $0.9975 to $1.01.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures were lower Wednesday pressured again by a lower cash market. Weekly European prices were reported higher. Class III markets fell anywhere from 1 to 27 cents with the most movement in February to August. April fell the most losing 27 cents finishing at $14.61.  January class III milk futures closed down a penny at $13.98. February down 16 cents at $13.97. March down 27 cents at $14.22. May through September contracts were nine to 29 cents lower. Class IV markets fell 19 to 27 cents from February to July while the rest of the months did not trade. January was unchanged at $15.51.

Dry whey down $0.0450 at $0.42. Four trades were made ranging from $0.42 to $0.4350. Blocks down $0.0150 at $1.3750. One trade was made at that price. Barrels down $0.0175 at $1.16. Two trades were made at that price Butter down $0.0125 at $2.22. One trade was made at that price Nonfat dry milk down $0.0250 at $0.99. Three trades were made ranging from $0.9825 to $0.99.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures started the week lower pressured by loses in the cash market.  Class III milk had a hard time keeping the slight strength of early trading and ended the day down $.04-.16/cwt to finish with a first half average of $14.77 and second half at $16.35.  January class III milk futures closed unchanged at $13.99. February down nine cents at $14.13. March down 15 cents at $14.49. April down 17 cents at $14.88. May through September contracts were six to 13 cents lower. Class IV markets are continuing their strength. Only losing $.03-.06/cwt in the months that traded.

Dry whey down $0.04 at $0.4650. Four trades were made ranging from $0.4650 to $0.50. Blocks down $0.01 at $1.39. One trade was made at that price. Barrels down $0.0225 at $1.1775. Three trades were made ranging from $1.1775 to $1.18. Butter down $0.0075 at $2.2325. One trade was made at $2.2350. Nonfat dry milk down $0.0125 at $1.0150. One trade was made at that price.

An agricultural economist broke down in a discussion Wednesday how milk production, popular products, trade and other factors affect the dairy market.

About 20 farmers watched, scribbled notes and raised questions during Cornell University professor Andrew M. Novakovic’s presentation at Dairy Day. Cornell Cooperative Extension’s North Country Regional Ag Team hosted the event and several presentations at the Ramada Inn, 6300 Arsenal St.

Farmers’ earnings for their milk, determined by milk prices, have remained relatively low in recent years, and as production costs continue rising, several struggle to keep up with their expenses. Many have widely blamed low milk prices on an international oversupply of dairy goods.

“The only way we know if we have a surplus is if the prices are too low,” Mr. Novakovic said. “Unless we look at the price, we can’t really tell if there’s a surplus or a deficit.”

Milk production and the demand for dairy products like sour cream, butter, cheese and yogurt has climbed annually since World War II, but Mr. Novakovic said production has outpaced demand in recent years.

Producers, however, may exhibit a shift in supply and demand that can bring a slight benefit to their bottom lines.

“The point is that our supply growth is getting more in line with our demand growth,” Mr. Novakovic said.

The average milk price is expected to rise slightly this year from $16.20 per hundredweight in 2018 to $16.80, but could rise as much as one or two dollars.

Mr. Novakovic said that growing demand for fat-based dairy products, including cheese, ice cream and butter, domestically will improve milk prices slightly, although it will not cure problems fueled by the marketplace glut. Domestic use for fat-based products is projected to jump from 212 billion pounds in 2018 to 216.3 billion pounds this year. Farmers may not experience the uptick in price until later in the year.

“I also think in 2020, we’ll continue to see an increase” in prices, Mr. Novakovic said.

The international marketplace for dairy is a different story from the domestic, and the proposed North American Free Trade Agreement replacement and tariffs will affect it in various ways.

Producers export more skim-based products like nonfat dry dairy powder and whey protein, found in sports drinks, despite typically earning less than cheese and butter because the latter are perishable and, therefore, harder to ship, Mr. Novakovic said. The U.S., however, ships fat-based products, particularly when U.S. chain restaurants such as Pizza Hut and McDonald’s purchase cheese to open franchises abroad.

According to Mr. Novakovic’s presentation, exports for both fat-based and skim-based products are expected to decline this year. As U.S. tariffs from last year raise costs for other goods in Mexico, the agriculture economics professor said customers south of the border have been encouraged to seek out dairy goods from other exporters, such as the European Union and New Zealand.

“We’ll get some of it back (if tariffs are lifted), but don’t expect to get all of that toothpaste back in the tube,” he said.

While tariffs have also had an adverse effect, Mr. Novakovic said a predicted decline in demand for dairy products from Chinese consumers stems from China’s economic growth slowing down. While U.S. companies have explored opportunities to enter markets in Vietnam and Thailand to enhance their export markets, Mr. Novakovic said they couldn’t yield the same demand as their neighbor, with more than 1 billion people.

“In India, there’s potential, but India’s a big dairy country,” he said. “They don’t need our milk.”

Many farmers hope the proposed United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement will, if approved by all three governments, replace NAFTA and help bolster the dairy industry and raise milk prices. Mr. Novakovic, however, said the difference between both agreements is minimal, and improvement to the dairy industry would be “imperceptible” to all save a few companies along the Canadian and Mexican borders.

“I think us in dairy, we won’t notice the difference,” he said.

When asked about how each region’s dairy economy differs, Mr. Novakovic said all areas have “islands” of areas where farmers have experienced strong production and sales except for the southeast. A few examples include Western New York, Western Michigan, Eastern Wisconsin and portions of California.

Northern New York and Vermont, however, have “held their own, but have not really grown,” Mr. Novakovic said.

Source: watertowndailytimes.com

Dairy prices have been boosted by a European Union decision to start selling off warehouses full of skim milk powder it has amassed over the last few years.

The EU has been subsidising European farmers by paying them above market prices for their milk, but then storing it as skim milk powder until conditions improve.

In the latest global dairy auction, prices of all commodities but one lifted 4.2 per cent to an average price of US$3057 per tonne, the highest increase for six months.

ASB analyst Nathan Penny said the bank was now more positive about its farmer forecast payout of $6 per kilogram of milksolids.

“Over the last few years, the spectre of large EU intervention stocks has cast a shadow over skim milk powder prices. Global dairy prices have also been impacted more generally, albeit to a lesser degree. Now though, the EU has sold down a significant portion of these stocks, which looks to be enough to convince the dairy market to release the shackles on skim milk prices.”

Strong sales in December and January 2019 shifted 141,000 tonnes of SMP, leaving only about 22,000 tonnes of intervention stock left.

Whole milk powder – New Zealand’s main dairy export commodity – lifted 3 per cent on the previous auction to US$2777 a tonne. There was also stronger demand for the product.

The price differential between WMP and SMP has recently been significant but is closing.

“That premium which had averaged over 40 per cent between 2016 and 2018 is now down to 15 per cent following the result. This development is giving a timely boost to global dairy prices, going a long way to offset the downward pressure on prices from bumper New Zealand supply,” Penny said.

Rabobank analyst Emma Higgins said buyers were looking to buy SMP while prices were still affordable.

She said the WMP price was a good result given China had imported a significant volume of both WMP and SMP over the last couple of months last year, and stock levels have been replenished in China for the time being.

Good growing weather has seen New Zealand farmers lifting production to the end of November by 1 per cent compared to the year before, and December production would be even higher.

Prices for anhydrous milkfat and butter rose 3.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively. Rennet casein was the only product to fall, by 1.4 per cent.

Source: Stuff

National fluid milk output generally steady, with some slight increases.

Butter output in the U.S. is active as processors capitalize on discounted cream values, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s “Dairy Market News.”

USDA said most churns are full of cream, while butter makers continue seasonally building their stocks for later use, especially for the summer. Print and bulk butter orders from retailers are also surprising stronger than expected in some regions, USDA said.

In regard to cheese, the report noted that cheese production continues to be active in the coastal regions. “While still active in the Central region, producers are reining in manufacturing levels following typically heavy post-holiday inventories,” USDA said.

Milk availability, although readily accessible, has settled somewhat as bottlers are taking priority, the report noted.

Western cheese contacts have reported to USDA that production is outpacing demand.

USDA said there are undoubtedly ample amounts of cheese in warehouses, which has left cheese markets in the U.S. somewhat shaky.

As for fluid milk, USDA said national farm milk output is generally steady, with some slight increases reported.

“Cow comfort has been optimal, but some harsh winter weather has midwestern and northeastern contacts concerned about the upcoming weekend,” USDA explained.

Bottlers are planning to get a jump on increasing supplies ahead of the forecasted winter storms. Spot milk available for cheese remains strong nationally, but the heavy discounts of the post-holiday weeks have ebbed somewhat.

Source: Feedstuffs

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures closed lower Thursday as cash prices weakened. Class III finished the day down $0.06-.17 with the first half average finishing at $14.90 per cwt. and July – Dec at $16.44.  January class III milk futures closed down six cents at $14.00. February down 13 cents at $14.14. March down 19 cents at $14.63. April down 15 cents at $15.14. May through September contracts were nine to 16 cents lower. Class IV followed moving down $0.14-27 per cwt. across all months except February. 

Dry whey down $0.0050 at $0.52 cents. Blocks down $0.03 at $1.3875. Barrels down $0.0150 at $1.1850. Butter down $0.0225 at $2.24. Four trades were made ranging from $2.2325 to $2.2525.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange milk futures closed mostly lower Wednesday while European prices improved. Class III milk finished even to 11 cents lower. The first half average ended at $15.02 per cwt. and the second half at $16.52 respectively.  January class III milk futures closed up a penny at $14.06. February down seven cents at $14.27. March down 11 cents at $14.82. April down 11 cents at $15.29. May through September contracts were five to nine cents higher. Class IV milk had little change and even two single digit losses.

Dry whey up $0.0150 at $0.5250 cents. Six trades were made at $0.5025 and $0.5250. Blocks unchanged at $1.4175. Barrels down $0.01 at $1.20. Four trades were made ranging from $1.1975 to $1.20. Butter up $0.0050 at $2.2625. Three trades were made at $2.2575. Nonfat dry milk up $0.0150 at $1.03. Four trades were made ranging from $1.03 to $1.0425.