Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mixed, with most of the more active months up on spread trade and technical buying. July was $.01 higher at $15.92, August was up $.05 at $16.74, September was $.05 higher at $16.96, and October was up $.02 at $17.09.

Cash cheese blocks were $.015 lower at $1.545. Two loads were sold, one at $1.545 and one at $1.56. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.56. Barrels were down $.0175 at $1.34. Three loads were sold, all at $1.34. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.33. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.3475.

Butter was unchanged at $2.585. One load was sold at $2.59. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $2.58. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.585.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0175 lower at $.8425. Three loads were sold, two at $.8425 and one at $.8475. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.8425. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $.85.

U.S. cheese stocks continue to grow. The USDA says the total amount of cheese in cold storage at the end of May was up 7% on the year with a new all-time high for the month at 1.340 billion pounds, with high milk production levels and heavy competition for exports pushing supplies to those new highs. American type cheese jumped 12%, Swiss stocks were 5% higher, and other types of cheese were steady. Butter stocks were up 7% on the month, but down 3% on the year at 313.575 million pounds, thanks to comparatively good demand.

The USDA says the dairy cow slaughter in May 2017 was 237,200 head with the year to date kill at 1,258,700 head.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were pressured by follow through selling and demand uncertainties. July was down $.06 at $15.91, August was $.04 lower at $16.69, September was down $.08 at $16.91, and October was $.07 lower at $16.91.

Cash cheese blocks were $.0375 lower at $1.56. Three loads were sold, two at $1.56 and one at $1.5975. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.56. Barrels were $.02 higher at $1.3575. 18 loads were sold, including two at $1.3575 and seven at $1.3475. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.34. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.3575.

Butter was down $.045 at $2.585. 10 loads were sold, including two at $2.585. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.585. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.60.

Nonfat dry milk was $.03 lower at $.86. Four loads were sold, all $.86. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.855. The last uncovered offer was for four loads at $.8625.

The USDA set the base Class I milk price for July 2017 at $16.59 per hundredweight, up $1.28 from June 2017. The skim price is $7.32, $.02 lower.

The USDA reports cash butter for the week ending June 17th averaged $2.45 per pound, up $.065 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar came out at $1.71, down $.01. 500 pound barrels of cheddar averaged $1.52, $.031 lower. Dry whey was pegged at $.493, down $.007. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.92, $.002 lower.

According to HighGround Dairy, milk production in the United Kingdom for the week ending June 10th was down 1.1% on the year and production in France for the week ending June 11th was 0.9% lower.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

‘On the supply side, there have been renewed uncertainties surrounding Chinese demand for Whole Milk Powder with a growing demand for more value-added produce such as butter.’ — Tom Clayton, Economic Calendar

Dairy product prices dropped slightly at Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction, the first decrease after six consecutive gains. The GDT Price Index fell 0.8%, following a rise of 0.6% posted at the preceding auction. According to data published, there were 111 winning bidders, while the event lasted about three hours. Some 21 million tonnes of dairy products were sold. That was 3.8% less than at the previous auction held two weeks ago. The price of skimmed milk powder advanced 1.4% to $2,218 per tonne, whereas the price of whole milk powder dropped 3.3% to $3,022 per tonne. Prices of butter climbed 2.9% to $5,768 per tonne, while the cheddar price declined 3.8% to $4,121 per tonne. The price of lactose plunged 11.1% to $869 per tonne, whereas the rennet casein price dropped 8.0% to $6,104 per tonne. Meanwhile, butter milk powder was not traded at the auction. Despite the latest auction’s drop, dairy product prices remained above their December highs. According to analysts, it will be highly crucial to keep prices in the following support area through the winter in order to support the underlying outlook.

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly lower, reacting to the Global Dairy Trade activity and Monday’s USDA milk production numbers. June was up $.01 at $16.33, July was down $.25 at $15.97, August was $.15 lower at $16.73, and September was down $.16 at $16.99.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.5975. One load was sold at $1.5975. Barrels were $.0125 lower at $1.3375. 11 loads were sold, including two at $1.3375 and five at $1.34. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.33. The last uncovered offer for one load at $1.3375.

Butter was $.07 higher at $2.63. Six loads were sold, including four at $2.63. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.625. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.63.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.015 at $.89. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.855. The last uncovered offer was for four loads at $.89.

The Global Dairy Trade index lost 0.8%, closing at $3,434 per ton, after six sessions in a row with a positive close. Lactose dropped 11.1% and rennet casein was 8.0% lower, while anhydrous milk fat was up 4.4% and butter was 2.9% higher. The next event is scheduled for Tuesday, July 4th. U.S. markets will be closed, in observance of Independence Day.

The USDA says milk production in the top 23 states during May 2017 was 17.8 billion pounds, up 1.8% from May 2016. Average production per cow was a new high for the month at 2,035 pounds, that’s a 16 pound increase from a year ago, and the total number of milk cows in the top production states was 8.72 million head, up 2,000 head on the month and 81,000 on the year.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly lower on spread trade and follow through selling. June was up $.03 at $16.34, July was down $.12 at $16.49, August was $.14 lower at $17.13, and September was down $.13 at $17.43.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.63. Barrels were steady at $1.4025. Four loads were sold, all at $1.4025. The last uncovered offer was for two loads, also at $1.4025.

Butter was up $.005 at $2.705. Eight loads were sold, including four at $2.705. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.69. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.71.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 higher at $.91. Five loads were sold, including three at $.91. The last unfilled bid was on 10 loads at $.90. The last uncovered offer was for 10 loads at $.93.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mixed on spread trade and profit taking. June was unchanged at $16.31, July was down $.06 at $16.61, August was steady at $17.27, and September was $.01 lower at $17.56.

Read more: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly higher on spread trade and follow through buying after Monday’s rally. June was unchanged at $16.31, July was $.06 higher at $16.67, August was up $.11 at $17.27, and September was $.07 higher at $17.57.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.63. Barrels were steady at $1.415. 11 loads were sold, all at $1.415. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $1.405. The last uncovered offer was for three loads at $1.42.

Butter was $.07 higher at $2.58. Four loads were sold, including one at $2.58. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.575. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.585.

Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.90. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.90. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.9025.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were supported by an oversold bounce, along with the USDA’s recent lower production estimate. June was up $.03 at $16.31, July was $.06 higher at $16.61, August was up $.17 at $17.16, and September was $.23 higher at $17.50.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.63. Barrels were steady at $1.415. Four loads were sold, all at $1.415. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.42.

Butter was $.035 higher at $2.51. Five loads were sold, including one at $2.51 and three at $2.505. The last unfilled bid was for on load at $2.5075. The last uncovered offer was for three loads at $2.52.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0075 lower at $.90. One load was sold at $.90. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $.90. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.91.

Cooperatives Working Together announced the acceptance of six requests for export assistance from member coops covering 548,951 pounds of Cheddar, Gouda, and Monterey Jack cheeses. The products are headed to Asia and Oceania with delivery from June through September of this year.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly lower on technical activity and recent mostly lower spot dairy cheese trade. June was down $.01 at $16.28, July was $.14 lower at $16.53, August was down $.03 at $17.03, and September was $.05 lower at $17.23.

Cash cheese blocks were $.02 lower at $1.63. Four loads were sold, two at $1.63 and two at $1.625. Barrels were down $.01 at $1.415. 24 loads were sold, 21 at $1.415 and three at $1.42. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $1.415. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.415.

Butter was up $.0025 at $2.465. One load was sold at $2.465. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.4625. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $2.475.

Nonfat dry milk was $.015 higher at $.9175. Seven loads were sold, including two at $.9175. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.9175. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.94.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were down on demand uncertainties. June was down $.08 at $16.29, July was $.19 lower at $16.67, August was down $.16 at $17.06, and September was $.10 lower at $17.28.

Cash cheese blocks were $.015 lower at $1.65. Two loads were sold at $1.65. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.66. Barrels were unchanged at $1.425. Seven loads were sold, all at $1.425. The last unfilled bid was on three loads at $1.42. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.425.

Butter was down $.0625 at $2.4625. Five loads were sold, including one at $2.4625. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.455. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $2.475.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0175 lower at $.9025. 10 loads were sold, including two at $.9025 and four at $.905. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.90. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.91.

The USDA reports cash butter for the week ending June 3rd averaged $2.32 per pound, up $.022 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar were pegged at $1.68, $.06. higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.54, up $.015. Dry whey came out at $.499, $.004 higher. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.897, up $.009.

According to HighGround Dairy, milk production in the United Kingdom for the week ending May 28th was down 1.1% on the year and production in France, also for the week ending May 28th, was 2.3% lower.

The USDA’s attaché in Argentina projects milk production at 10.39 million tons, down from previous estimates, but up 2% on the year. The office says 2017 production was limited by wet weather during the first quarter, but conditions are expected to improve. 2017 dairy exports are expected to be 186,000 tons.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly higher on spread trade and expectations for a slowdown in milk production. June was down $.07 at $16.37, July was unchanged at $16.86, August was up $.05 at $17.22, and September was $.03 higher at $17.38.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.665. Two loads were sold at $1.665. The last uncovered offer was for one load, also at $1.665. Barrels were $.0325 lower at $1.425. Nine loads were sold, including three at $1.425 and three at $1.445. The last unfilled bid was on three loads at $1.415. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.43.

Butter was $.01 higher at $2.525. Eight loads were sold, including one at $2.525. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.52. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.5275.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.025 at $.92. Two loads were sold at ninety two. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.915. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.945.

The Global Dairy Trade index was up 0.6% at $3,395 per ton. The index has gained for five events in a row, but that relatively small increase may be a sign the rally has run out of steam, for now. Cheddar jumped 14.5% and skim milk powder was 7.9% higher, while whole milk powder was down 2.9% and anhydrous milk fat was down 1.2%. The next event is scheduled for June 20th.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mixed on spread adjustments. June was down $.08 at $16.44, July was $.09 lower at $16.86, August was down $.01 at $17.17, and September was up $.02 at $17.35.

Cash cheese blocks were $.035 lower at $1.665. Four loads were sold, including one at $1.665. The last uncovered offer was for one load, also at $1.665. Barrels were down $.0325 at $1.4575. Nine loads were sold, seven at $1.46 and two at $1.47. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.4575.

Butter was $.03 higher at $2.515. Nine loads were sold, including three at $2.51. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.515. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $2.52.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 lower at $.945. Three loads were sold, including one at $.945. The last unfilled bid was one two loads at $.92. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.945.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Dairy Outlook: The May Class III price could end up $2.75 higher than a year ago.

Milk prices should continue to improve from here out, according to Bob Cropp, a University of Wisconsin Extension dairy economist.

“Domestic sales appear to be favorable for butter and cheese,” Cropps says. “Dairy exports are expected to continue above year-ago levels. As world supply and demand tightens, world dairy product prices will increase, making U.S. dairy product prices more competitive.”

Milk production among major dairy exporters has been below year-ago levels for the European Union, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina. The U.S. has been the exception with higher milk production. However, milk production by the other four exporters, particularly the EU and New Zealand, is expected to start running above year-ago levels during the second half of the year. But stronger buying by China and others will help keep a tighter world supply-demand situation, Cropp says.

 The level of U.S. milk production will determine how much milk prices strengthen.

“With expected favorable domestic sales and higher dairy exports, we can expect improvement in milk prices if the increase in milk production stays close to 2%. USDA is forecasting 2017 milk 2.1% higher than 2016. USDA estimates April milk production 2% higher than a year ago,” Cropp explains. The number of milk cows has been increasing since October of last year and is now 0.7% higher than a year ago. Milk per cow was 1.3% higher than a year ago. Compared to April a year ago, milk production in the West and Southwest is up 3.8%.

Stronger futures prices
Class III futures have turned more optimistic about milk prices than at the beginning of May.

“Class III futures reach the low $16s by June and the low $17s August through November,” Cropp says. “With continued good domestic sales and improved dairy exports, a Class III price in the higher $17s by October is very possible. Some price forecasters even see $18 as a possibility.”

Weather will also be a factor as to where milk prices end up. Hot and humid summer weather can reduce the increase in milk production and depress milk components, lowering the yield of dairy products per 100 pounds of milk. Milk prices will respond to relatively small changes in milk production, domestic sales and dairy exports. But Cropp believes milk prices could average for the year $1.30 to more than $2 higher than last year.

April likely was the bottom for milk prices. The Class III price fell from $16.77 in January to $15.22 in April, and May should be near $15.60. Cheese and butter prices have responded to a slower growth in milk production and improved dairy exports. January milk production was 2.6% higher than the previous year, but March production was up just 1.7%. First-quarter dairy exports were up 14% by volume compared to a year ago, the best first quarter since 2014, Cropp says. While butterfat exports were 49% lower, cheese exports were 12% higher. With nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports 19% higher and total whey exports 27% higher, first-quarter exports on a total solids basis were equivalent to 14% of total milk production, compared to 12.6% a year ago. 

 Cheese and butter prices have strengthened since the first of May. On the CME, 40-pound cheddar blocks started the month at $1.48 per pound and are now $1.67. Cheddar barrels started the month at $1.42 and were as high as $1.54 mid-month, but are now $1.47. The spread between blocks and barrels has ranged from 6 cents per pound to as high as 20 cents, rather than the more normal spread of 3 to 4 cents. Butter started the month at $2.09 per pound, was as high as $2.43 and is now $2.38.  Dry whey prices softened some but still traded in the 45 to 52 cents per pound price range, Cropp explains.

“These higher product prices explain the higher May Class III price,” he says. “If the Class III price ends up near $15.60, it will average about $2.50 higher during the January-to-May period than last year. Last year the May Class III dropped to a low of $12.76.”

Source: American Agriculturist

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were supported by expectations for improving demand. June was $.14 higher at $16.70, July was up $.18 at $17.26, August was $.13 higher at $17.52, and September was up $.16 at $17.55.

Cash cheese blocks were $.015 higher at $1.745. Two loads were sold, one at $1.74 and one at $1.745. Barrels were up $.005 at $1.545. 12 loads were sold, 11 at $1.545 and one at $1.5425. The last uncovered offer was for four loads at $1.545.

Butter was $.05 higher at $2.41. One load was sold at $2.41. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.4025. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.42.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.02 at $.955. Five loads were sold, including one at $.955 and two at $.95. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.955. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.96.

HighGround Dairy reports milk production in the United Kingdom for the week ending May 20th was down 0.7% on the year, while production in France for the week ending May 21st dropped 4.5%. Milk production in Ireland during April was 12.1% above the previous year.

The USDA says the dairy index for April was 82.1, down 4.6% from March, but up 9.3% from April 2016. The all milk price was $16.50 per hundredweight, $.80 lower than the previous month, but up $1.40 on the year.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Last week Fonterra forecast a farmgate milk price of $NZ6.50 a kilogram of milk solids ($6.15kg/MS) for its New Zealand suppliers for next season. It also lifted this current season forecast to $NZ6.15/kg/MS ($5.82kg/MS).

NZ produced 21 billion litres of milk in 2015-16 and experts predict this current year will finish about 1.5 per cent below that mark. NZ exports about 95 per cent of its dairy produce and is one of Australian dairy’s largest competitors, which means it can influence prices.

Fonterra’s forecast is expected to prompt milk growth, with New Zealand analysts expecting farmgate prices to hold or decline slightly for NZ dairy farmers in the coming season.

ASB rural economist Nathan Penny, based in NZ, predicted production would rise 3 to 4 per cent following two season of negative growth. He said this growth was on the “modest” side for the dairy powerhouse nation.

“If we have an OK winter we will come out the other side of spring on turbo-charged speed, but at the same time (dairy farmers) have lost a bit of grass and mating was late so calving will be late,” he said.

“If we have average weather for the season the new season will even out and it will revert back to milk price (determining growth) and it was a fairly bullish signal from Fonterra.”

He said current Global Dairy Trade auction results indicated a farmgate milk price of $NZ 7/kg/MS ($6.64), so forecasts were preparing for a slight correction if necessary.

Rabobank New Zealand dairy analyst Emma Higgins said the $NZ6.50/kg/MS forecast would be “largely profitable” for many NZ farmers and it would mean the industry was heading into its second season of “healthy farm margins.”

Dairy Australia analyst John Droppert said the Australian industry had come out of a season that followed a farmgate milk price step-down, so the industry would be conscious of delivering on forecasts in the future.

There was also a risk with the US “still pumping out milk”.

Many Australian domestic market contracts are also believed to be benchmarked on international prices.

Source: The Weekly Times

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mixed on spread trade and consolidation activity. June was $.05 higher at $16.56, July was up $.04 at $17.08, August was down $.01 at $17.39, and September was $.05 lower at $17.39.

Cash cheese blocks were $.0025 lower at $1.73. Six loads were sold, including one at $1.73. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.7325. Barrels were $.06 higher at $1.54. 15 loads were sold, including one at $1.54. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.53. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.54.

Butter was unchanged at $2.36. Six loads were sold, four at $2.36 and two at $2.35. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.3575. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.3625.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.0075 at $.935. Six loads were sold, including two at $.935. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.915. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.94.

Cooperatives Working Together announced the acceptance of 25 requests for export assistance from member coops, covering 3.536 million pounds of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheeses and 702,275 pounds of butter. The products are headed to Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Oceania between May through August.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were supported by follow-through technical buying. June was $.37 higher at $16.60, July was up $.45 at $17.25, August was $.43 higher at $17.58, and September was up $.37 at $17.57.

Cash cheese blocks were $.055 higher at $1.72. Two loads were sold, one at $1.72 and one at $1.71. Barrels were up $.0575 at $1.52. 21 loads were sold, including five at $1.47 and three at $1.52. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $1.50. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.53.

Butter was unchanged at $2.38. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $2.375. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.4025.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 higher at $.93. 17 loads were sold, including five each at $.9375, $.935, and $.93. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.9275. The last uncovered offer was for 10 loads at $.9375.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were up modestly on an oversold bounce. June was $.02 higher at $16.23, July was up $.09 at $16.80, August was $.07 higher at $17.15, and September was up $.01 at $17.20.

Cash cheese blocks were $.02 higher at $1.665. Five loads were sold, including one at $1.665. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.67. Barrels were $.02 lower at $1.4625. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.4625.

Butter was up $.0175 at $2.38. Five loads were sold, including one at $2.38 and three at $2.3775. The last unfilled bid was on one load $2.38. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.385.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.0025 at $.9275. One load was sold at $.925. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.9275. The last uncovered offer was for three loads at $.93.

The USDA says cash butter for the week ending May 20th averaged $2.19 per pound, up $.07 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar were reported at $1.57, $.036 higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.49, up $.02. Dry whey came out at $.517, $.009 higher. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.871, up $.01.

Fonterra raised its 2016/17 New Zealand farmgate price, citing better international demand. HighGround Dairy reports milk production in France for the week ending May 14th was down 4.3%, while production in the United Kingdom for the week ending May 13th was up 0.3%.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Most mid-May CME dairy prices climbed higher, as traders absorbed last Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction and awaited Friday afternoon’s April Milk Production report and Monday’s April Cold Storage data.

Buoyed in part by the GDT, CME butter shot up to $2.43 per pound Tuesday, highest price since Dec. 9, 2015, only to ease back Wednesday, regain some ground Thursday, then slip Friday, finishing at $2.3750, up 11 1/4-cents on the week after jumping 15 1/2-cents the previous week, and is 30 1/2-cents above a year ago.

The butter eased back 1 1/4-cents Monday and held there Tuesday, at $2.3625.

Butter production is active in the Central region, reports Dairy Market News, and some were taking discounted cream from the Southwest. Better-than-expected retail sales are reported; others report a seasonal slowdown. “Global tightness on milk fat has some buyers purchasing butter ahead of an increasing export demand.”

Western butter output is generally steady but larger pulls of cream from ice cream manufacturers are allowing butter makers to ease output.

The cheddar blocks hit $1.67 per pound Tuesday, then slipped back, recovered, and closed Friday at $1.67, up 3 1/2-cents on the week, 35 1/2-cents above a year ago, and the highest price since Feb. 6, 2017.

The barrels finished at $1.47, down 6 cents on the week but 11 1/2-cents above a year ago.

The blocks lost 2 cents Monday and a half-cent Tuesday, slipping to $1.6450. The barrels gained a penny Monday but gave back three-quarters Tuesday, and were at $1.4725, a still-too-high 17 1/4-cents below the blocks.

FC Stone says they continue to hear of better cheese demand, in particular from food service. “This combined with short-term tightness of 30-day or fresher block cheese is why we have a big block-barrel spread,” wrote broker Dave Kurzawski, who also asks, “Why are U.S. spot prices able to rise during one of the greatest cheddar cheese builds in U.S. history?” Like a broken record, DMN reports there is no shortage of milk for cheesemakers in the Midwest.

Western output remains at or near capacity. The grilling season has begun and domestic retail demand is steady but some feel price increases could choke off export opportunities.

Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk ended the week at 91 1/2-cents per pound, 5 1/4-cents higher than the previous week and 10 cents above a year ago.

Powder was up a penny Monday and a half-cent Tuesday, reaching 93 cents, highest price since Feb. 9, 2017.

Milk output up

Preliminary data pegs April milk output in the top 23 producing states at 17.2 billion pounds, up 2.0 percent from April 2016. The 50-state total is 18.3 billion pounds, also up 2.0 percent. The most bearish part is cow numbers, up for the seventh consecutive month, totaling 9.39 million head in the 50 states and 8.72 million in the 23 states, 8,000 more than March and 81,000 more than a year ago. Output per cow was above the prior year for the 18th consecutive month, averaging 1,967 pounds, up 20 pounds from a year ago.

California output was below a year ago for the fourth month in a row, off 1.1 percent, on a 10-pound loss per cow and 11,000 fewer cows. Wisconsin was only up 0.6 percent. Output per cow was only up 10 pounds and cow numbers were up 1,000 head.

Texas again showed the biggest gain, up 12.8 percent, thanks to 45,000 more cows and 55 pounds more per cow. New Mexico was up 7.5 percent, on a 40-pound gain per cow and 17,000 more cows.

Gains in milk per cow were not as great as some expected but still evidence that producers know how to get more blood out of a turnip.

Arizona saw a 40-pound gain per cow and 4,000 more cows push the state’s output 3.8 percent higher than a year ago. Michigan cows produced 50 pounds more each and there were 8,000 more of them to move the state up 4.2 percent.

Minnesota saw a 40-pound gain per cow and, while cow numbers were down 1,000, overall output was up 2 percent. New York was up 3.6 percent, on a 65-pound gain per cow and 3,000 more cows. Pennsylvania was up 2.5 percent, thanks to a 60-pound gain per cow outweighing a loss of 5,000 cows.

Idaho found itself in the negative column, output per cow was off 30 pounds and even though cow numbers were up 5,000, the state’s overall output was down 0.7 percent. Washington state’s output per cow was off 30 pounds, cow numbers were down 3,000, and total output was down 2.5 percent.

Lots of cheese

U.S. cheese stocks are climbing. USDA’s April Cold Storage report shows American stocks at 835.1 million pounds, up 32.7 million pounds, or 4 percent, from March and 101 million pounds, or 14 percent, above a year ago. The total cheese inventory hit 1.33 billion pounds, up 42 million, or 3 percent, from March and 125.3 million, or 10 percent, above a year ago.

The butter inventory stood at 292.3 million pounds, up 19.8 million pounds, or 7 percent, from March but 3.5 million, or 1 percent, below April 2016, first time inventory fell below a year ago in 25 months.

Source: Capital Press

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were pressured by demand uncertainties and the bearish cheese and butter numbers from the USDA’s cold storage report Monday. June was down $.08 at $16.21, July was $.04 lower at $16.71, August was down $.06 at $17.08, and September was $.07 lower at $17.19.

Cash cheese blocks were $.005 lower at $1.645. Five loads were sold, including two at $1.645. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.65. Barrels were down $.0075 at $1.4725. 11 loads were sold, including five at $1.4725 and five at $1.475. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.475.

Butter was unchanged at $2.3625. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.3625. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.3675.

Nonfat dry milk was $.005 higher at $.93. Six loads were sold, including four at $.93. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $.93. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.935.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were narrowly mixed, mostly weak, reacting to last week’s milk production report and this week’s cold storage numbers. June was down $.03 at $16.29, July was $.02 lower at $16.75, August was down $.01 at $17.14, and September was $.01 lower at $17.26.

Cash cheese blocks were $.02 lower at $1.65. Five loads were sold, including one at $1.65 and five at $1.66. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.65. Barrels were $.01 higher at $1.48. 10 loads were sold, including three at $1.48 and four at $1.465. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.48.

Butter was down $.0125 at $2.3625. Two loads were sold, one at $2.3625 and one at $2.37. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $2.35. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.3625.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.01 at $.925. Two loads were sold, one at $.925 and one at $.9275. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.925. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.93.

Cooperatives Working Together announced the acceptance of 14 requests for export assistance from member coops, covering 2.57 million pounds of cheese and 220,462 pounds of butter. The products are headed to Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Oceania, with delivery slated for May through August 2017.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Mark Stephenson

The director of the Center for Dairy Profitability remains optimistic milk prices will go up, especially next year.

Mark Stephenson with the University of Wisconsin agrees with the latest WASDE report predicting milk prices will reach between $17.55 and $18.55 a hundredweight in 2018. “I think that that’s quite possible. We’ve had strong domestic sales and quite honestly right now we’re seeing our export opportunities increase.”

Stephenson says there’s some positive movement in the market now. “We just got a global dairy report, trade report, from New Zealand that’s indicating increased product prices for things like butter, and of course, we’ve seen those in our own Chicago Mercantile Exchange spot markets here in the last few days.”

And he says producers should see some improvement in milk prices before next year. “We are going to be in the 17-dollar range for Class III in the next few months, and we’ve got room for growth later on.”

Stephenson says dairy margins are also getting better, moving closer to the 10-dollar-a-hundredweight range, where he expects them to stay for the rest of the year.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Global dairy prices rose for the fifth time in a row in fortnightly auctions, putting to rest any jitters that a recovery in dairy in 2017 was temporary.

The Global Dairy Trade Price Index climbed 3.2 percent, with an average selling price of $3,313 per tonne, in the auction held in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

After two years of declining prices, farmers and analysts had been concerned that a 50 percent rebound during 2016 could be temporary. Prices were also dented at the beginning of the new year as global supply increased.

Much of the gain was for high-fat products such as butter, which rose 11.2 percent, as demand from Asian markets increased.

“Strong demand for milkfat is attributed to many consumers in developed nations eating more natural foods rather than artificial or processed foods,” said Amy Castleton, analyst at AgriHQ.

“Some of the poorer nations are also developing a taste for butter. Cakes and cream are being consumed more often by wealthy Asians,” she added.

Prices for milk powder also rose, though more modestly. Whole milk powder prices gained 1.3 percent while skim milk powder prices grew 1 percent.

A total of 21,236 tons was sold at the latest auction, falling 6.2 percent from the previous one.

The auction results can affect the New Zealand dollar as the dairy sector generates more than 7.0 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

However, market reaction was relatively muted, with the Kiwi currency rising from $0.6868 to $0.6894 after the auction, but then tracing back down to around $0.6885.

GDT Events is owned by New Zealand’s Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd , but operates independently from the dairy giant.

The auctions are held twice a month, with the next one scheduled for June 6.

Source: Reuters

Class III futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were pressured by follow through selling and demand uncertainties. May was down $.01 at $15.61, June was $.17 lower at $16.20, July was down $.21 at $16.62, and August was $.26 lower at $17.01.

Cash cheese blocks were down $.0175 at $1.6525. One load was sold at $1.6525. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.66. Barrels were $.03 lower at $1.47. 14 loads were sold, two at $1.47 and seven at $1.4875. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.45. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.47.

Butter was $.055 higher at $2.40. Two loads were sold, one at $2.40 and one at $2.385. The last unfilled bid was on two loads $2.3875. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.415.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.0025 at $.895. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.89. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.8925.

The USDA’s attaché in Australia projects 2017 milk production at 9.1 million tons, which would be down 2.7% from 2016. The expected year to year decline is attributed to a “significant disruption to production”, along with lower farm gate prices, a smaller herd, and an anticipated lower per cow yield. That lower production is expected to limit production and exports of butter, cheese, and whole and skim milk powder. The USDA’s attaché does expect higher prices and cheaper inputs to lead to bounce back in production, but does not expect a recovery in herd size, citing lower farm incomes.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly higher on spread trade and follow through buying. May was up $.03 at $15.63, June was unchanged at $16.48, July was $.07 higher at $16.98, and August was up $.06 at $17.40.

Cash cheese blocks were $.035 higher at $1.67. Four loads were sold, including one at $1.67 and two at $1.66. Barrels were up $.01 at $1.54. 19 loads were sold, five at $1.54 and 14 at $1.53. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $1.52. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.54.

Butter was $.11 higher at $2.43. Eight loads were sold, including one at $2.43 and three at $2.42. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.42. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.44.

Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.8825. One load was sold at $.8825. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $.8825.

The Global Dairy Trade index gained for the fifth event in a row, up 3.2% to an average of $3,313 per ton. Rennet casein was down 3.7%, while anhydrous milk fat was 8.2% higher and butter jumped 11.2%. The next event is scheduled for June 6th.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were supported by expectations for improved demand and lower production levels. May was up $.02 at $15.60, June was $.27 higher at $16.48, July was up $.23 at $16.91, and August was $.24 higher at $17.34.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.635. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.64. Barrels were steady at $1.53. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.53.

Butter was $.0575 higher at $2.32. Seven loads were sold, including three at $2.32. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.3175. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.32.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.02 at $.8825. 12 loads were sold, including one at $.8825 and seven at $.88. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.87. The last uncovered offer was for five loads at $.89.

Cooperatives Working Together accepted eight requests for export assistance from member coops covering 930,351 pounds of Cheddar and Gouda cheese and 220,462 pounds of butter. The products are headed to Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa from May through August.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Milk production for 2018 is forecast higher on stronger milk prices and moderate feed prices. Commercial exports on fat and skim-solids bases are forecast higher on stronger global demand. Fat basis imports are forecast modestly higher in 2018 while skim-solids basis imports are forecast lower relative to 2017. Cheese and non-fat dry milk prices are forecast higher than 2017, but butter and whey prices are forecast lower. The increase in the Class III price reflects higher forecast cheese prices which more than offset lower whey prices. The Class IV price is higher as the higher non-fat dry milk price more than offset lower butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $18.55 per cwt for 2018.

Forecast milk production in 2017 is lowered from the previous month on slower growth in milk per cow. Fat basis imports are lowered from the previous month while skim-solids basis imports are increased. Commercial exports are forecast higher for both fat and skim-solids bases. Non-fat dry milk price forecasts are raised from last month while butter is lower. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged. The Class III price is unchanged while the Class IV is higher than the previous month. The milk price is forecast at $17.35 to $17.85 per cwt.

Source: USDA

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were supported by the recent lower USDA production estimate and increased cash dairy activity. May was up $.06 at $15.61, June was $.29 higher at $16.38, July was up $.40 at $16.89, and August was up $.36 at $17.20.

Cash cheese blocks were $.05 higher at $1.65. Seven loads were sold, including two at $1.65. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.6475. The last uncovered offer was for two loads at $1.66. Barrels were up $.10 at $1.56. 10 loads were sold, including one at $1.56 and four at $1.53. The last uncovered offer was on one load at $1.66.

Butter was $.11 higher at $2.24. Nine loads were sold, including three at $2.24. The last unfilled bid was on five loads at $2.22. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.24.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.005 at $.8625. Three loads were sold, one at $.8625 and two at $.87. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.86. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.8625.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were supported by the USDA’s lower 2017 production estimate. May was up $.03 at $15.55, June was $.22 higher at $16.09, July was up $.19 at $16.49, and August was $.15 higher at $16.84.

Cash cheese blocks were $.01 higher at $1.60. Three loads were sold, two at $1.59 and one $1.60. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.59. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.61. Barrels held at $1.46. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.45. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.46.

Butter was up $.025 at $2.13. Two loads were sold, one at $2.12 and one at $2.13. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.12. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.14.

Nonfat dry milk was unchanged at $.8575. Two loads were sold, one at $.86 and one at $.8575. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.8575. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.865.

USDA has lowered its 2017 milk production outlook, citing a lower per cow yield. Production was down 400 million pounds from April at 216.9 billion, with the annual peak expected to be in the second quarter. 2018 production is pegged at 222 billion pounds.

The all milk price for this year is seen at $17.35 to $17.85 per hundredweight, down $.05 on the month, with Class III at $16.10 to $16.60 and Class IV at $14.35 to $14.95. The 2018 all price is estimated at $17.55 to $18.55 per hundredweight with Class III at $16.40 to $17.40 and Class IV at $14.40 to $15.50.

The projected cheese and dry whey prices for 2017 were unchanged, at $1.60 to $1.65 and $.49 to $.52 per pound, respectively, while butter was a little lower at $.875 to $.915 and nonfat dry milk was a little higher at $.875 to $.915. For 2018, the cheese price is estimated at $1.64 to $1.74 per pound with butter at $2.045 to $2.175, with nonfat dry milk at $.915 to $.985 and dry whey at $.475 to $.505.

The USDA says cash butter for the week ending May 6th averaged $2.11 per pound, up $.017 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar were pegged at $1.53, $.011 higher. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.46, down $.007. Dry whey came out at $.517, $.009 lower. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.863, up $.016.

According to HighGround Dairy, milk production in the United Kingdom, for the week ending April 22nd, was up 2.5%, while production in Germany, for the week ending April 23rd was down 4.1%, and production in France, for the week ending April 30th, was 2.6% lower.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mixed ahead of Wednesday’s USDA supply and demand report. May was down $.03 at $15.52, June was up $.01 at $15.87, July was $.03 lower at $16.30, and August was down $.05 at $16.69.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.59. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.59. Barrels were $.01 higher at $1.46. 10 loads were sold, including three at $1.46. The last unfilled bid was on two load at $1.455. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.4675.

Butter was $.0225 lower at $2.105. Nine loads were sold, including one at $2.105. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $2.105. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.1075.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.0075 at $.8575. Five loads were sold, including two at $.8575. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.8575. The last uncovered offer was for 10 loads at $.895.

Cooperatives Working Together accepted seven requests for export assistance from member coops covering 1 million pounds of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheeses and 440,525 pounds of butter. The products are headed to Asia and the Middle East with delivery slated for May through August.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly modestly lower on spread trade and profit taking. May was down $.03 at $15.55, June was $.01 lower at $15.86, July held at $16.33, and August was down $.02 at $16.74.

Cash cheese blocks were $.01 lower at $1.59. One load was sold at $1.59. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.60. Barrels held at $1.45.

Butter was $.02 higher at $2.1275. One load was sold at $2.1275. The last unfilled bid was on one load, also at $2.1275. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.1325.

Nonfat dry milk was up $.005 at $.85. One load was sold at $.8425. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $.85. The last uncovered offer was for five loads at $.89.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw an oversold bounce. May was up $.16 at $15.48, June was $.28 higher at $15.69, July was up $.25 at $16.21, and August was $.24 higher $16.21.

Cash cheese blocks were up $.01 at $1.49. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $1.49. Barrels were $.02 higher at $1.42. Four loads were sold, including one at $1.42. The last unfilled bid was on two loads at $1.40. The last uncovered offer was for three loads at $1.42.

Butter was unchanged at $2.12. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.12. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.115.

Nonfat dry milk was $.0025 lower at $.85. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.8475. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.85.

The USDA says the Class II milk price for April was $14.81 per hundredweight, down $1.40 from March, Class III was $15.22, $.59 lower, and Class IV was $14.01, down $.31.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were down on technical selling and demand uncertainties with the USDA’s next monthly dairy product production report out Thursday afternoon. May was down $.01 at $15.32, June was $.14 lower at $15.41, July was down $.07 at $15.96, and August was $.04 lower at $16.40.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.48. The last unfilled bid was for one load at $1.48. Barrels were $.015 lower at $1.40. 24 loads were sold, including seven at $1.40 and seven at $1.415. The last unfilled bid was on ten loads at $1.40.

Butter was $.005 higher at $2.12. Four loads were sold, three at $2.115 and one at $2.12. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.105. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.12.

Nonfat dry milk was steady at $.8525. Three loads were sold, two at $.8475 and one at $.8525. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.85.

The USDA reports cash butter for the week ending April 29th averaged $2.09 per pound, down $.02 on the week. 40 pound blocks of cheddar came out at $1.51, up $.011. 500 pound barrels averaged $1.46, $.009 lower. Dry whey was pegged at $.526, $.015 higher. Nonfat dry milk averaged $.847, up $.001.

According to HighGround Dairy, milk production in the United Kingdom, for the week ending April 22nd, was up 3.0% on the year, while production in France, for the week ending April 23rd, was down 2.7%.

Source: Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were steady to mostly higher following the higher Global Dairy Trade event. May was up $.01 at $15.33, June was $.07 higher at $15.55, July was up $.01 at $16.03, and August held at $16.44.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.48. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.48. Barrels were $.0025 lower at $1.415. Two loads were sold at $1.415. The last uncovered offer was for one load, also at $1.415.

Butter was $.0225 higher at $2.115. Three loads were sold, including one at $2.115. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.11. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.12.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.0075 at $.8525. Three loads were sold, one at $.8525 and two at $.845. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $.84. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.86.

The Global Dairy Trade index was up 3.6% at an average of $3,166 per ton, the fourth consecutive event with a higher finish. Butter milk powder surged 21.8% higher and rennet casein jumped 10.4%. Skim milk powder was the only lower sector, down 0.9%. The next event is scheduled for May 16th.

Cooperatives Working Together announced the acceptance of four requests for export assistance from member coops covering 493,836 tons of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheeses. The products are headed to Asia with delivery slated for April through July 2017.

Source:Brownfield Ag News

Class III milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were mostly firm, squaring up for this week’s Global Dairy Trade event. May was down $.03 at $15.32, June was up $.01 at $15.48, July was $.04 higher at $16.02, and August was up $.05 at $16.44.

Cash cheese blocks were unchanged at $1.48. Barrels were steady at $1.4175. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $1.4175.

Butter was $.0125 lower at $2.0925. 22 loads were sold, including 12 at $2.0925 and nine at $2.095. The last unfilled bid was on one load at $2.0925. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $2.10.

Nonfat dry milk was down $.0076 at $.86. The last unfilled bid was on four loads at $.85. The last uncovered offer was for one load at $.86.

Source: Brownfield Ag News