Bulls losing 102 points overnight while proven sires gain $2,400/cow advantage? August’s genomic chaos changes everything we know.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The August 2025 genetic evaluations reveal a critical shift in the dairy industry, as the proven reliability of daughter-backed sires increasingly outshines the volatile promise of their genomic counterparts. This trend is highlighted by major ranking changes, including Stantons Remover PP leaping to the #1 proven spot in Canada, while genomic bulls like Cookiecutter Hadley-ET experienced dramatic drops. The displacement of established sires like Genosource Captain in the UK further signals a rapid industry shift towards functional traits, such as health and efficiency. This dynamic underscores a move by breeders to prioritize real-world economic performance, exemplified by GENOSOURCE RETROSPECT-ET’s dominance in the US Net Merit rankings, leading to breeding strategies that now favor the stability of proven genetics.

KEY CHANGES

• Stantons Remover PP: The biggest mover, leaping from #7 to become the new #1 proven sire in Canada (LPI) after his first daughters validated his genomic potential.
• Cookiecutter Hadley-ET: A prime example of genomic volatility, going from #2 to #10 in the Italian genomic rankings in a single evaluation cycle.
• OCD Trooper Sheepster: Emerged as the new #1 daughter-proven sire in the UK (£PLI), showcasing a desirable combination of production and a high lifespan improvement.
• GENOSOURCE RETROSPECT-ET: The new leader for Net Merit ($NM) in the US, headlining Genosource’s complete domination of the economic-focused index.
• Genosource Captain: A significant change, this former industry-leading sire dropped to fifth place in the UK and 3rd place in the US, highlighting the rapid genetic progress and shifting priorities towards health and efficiency traits.
• Evenstar & Pennywise: A pair of “twin” sires who became the new #1 genomic leaders in Germany ($RZG), both achieving an elite score of 164.
• Peak Spellbound-ET: Surged to become the new #1 genomic sire in Italy ($gPFT), noted for his exceptional component percentages that appeal to the cheese market.

The August 2025 genetic evaluations have delivered the most dramatic ranking reshuffles we’ve seen in years, with proven sire Stantons Remover PP leaping from #7 to #1 in Canada, while Italian genomics swung by 100+ points in single evaluations. The real story? Proven reliability is increasingly outperforming genomic promises as economic pressures force progressive breeders to prioritize profitable genetics over flashy TPI numbers.

Look, I’ve been watching genetic evaluations for over two decades, and what just dropped in August 2025 has me scratching my head in the best possible way. We’re seeing ranking shifts that would’ve been unthinkable just a few years ago—and the implications for your breeding program are massive.

The thing that’s really got my attention isn’t just the new leaders (though they’re impressive), it’s this growing tension between what genomics promise and what proven bulls actually deliver. And frankly, some of the volatility we’re seeing should prompt every breeder to pause before they become too aggressive with unproven genetics.

The Great Genomic Reality Check—And Why It Matters to Your Bottom Line

Here’s what’s happening across the major Holstein markets, and it’s telling a story that every progressive breeder needs to understand. We’re looking at the United States, Canada, the UK, Germany, and Italy—basically the genetic powerhouses that drive most of our industry decisions.

The pattern that’s emerging? Genomic predictions are becoming increasingly volatile, while proven bulls are demonstrating the kind of consistency that actually pays the bills. Take what just happened in Italy—Cookiecutter Hadley-ET dropped from #2 to #10 genomic, losing 102 points in one evaluation cycle. That’s not a small adjustment; that’s a complete reversal of fortune.

Meanwhile, proven sire ZFZ Crisalis RF gained 29 points, strengthening his position as #1. The guy has thousands of daughters, actually milking in real barns, dealing with real feed costs and real heat stress. There’s something to be said for that kind of validation.

What really drives this home is the German comparison. Their genomic leaders, Evenstar and Pennywise, both reached RZG 164—that’s a 17-point advantage over proven leader Zivet, who reached RZG 147. Now, if you’re doing the math on lifetime profit, that gap represents serious money… if the predictions hold true.

Marco Winters from AHDB put it perfectly when he looked at the UK situation: “The six new graduates in the top 10 already have around 7,000 heifers registered in UK milk-recorded herds, with some now milking. Their proven £PLI values deviate by just one point on average from their earlier genomic predictions.”

That’s the kind of validation that makes you feel good about using genomics early. But here’s the thing—not every market is showing that kind of accuracy.

North America: Where Economic Reality Meets Genetic Hype

The United States: Genosource’s Economic Domination

What’s fascinating about the US August proofs is how they reveal a fundamental shift toward economic reality. Sure, BEYOND HI-LEVEL-ET claimed the #1 genomic spot at +3539 TPI, but honestly, that’s not the story that’s going to matter to your milk check.

The real story is how Genosource has completely taken over the Net Merit rankings. I mean completely. GENOSOURCE RETROSPECT-ET leads at +1317 NM$, followed by his stable mates GENOSOURCE ENDURANCE-ET (+1233NM) and GENOSOURCE PURDY-ET (+1222 NM$).

This isn’t a coincidence—this is systematic breeding for traits that actually make money rather than chasing TPI points that look good on paper but don’t always translate to profitability. And with feed costs where they are in 2025, that focus on economic merit is becoming non-negotiable.

In the proven ranks, SDG CAP GARZA-ET is leading at +3488 TPI with 98% reliability. What I like about Garza is his balance—+146 lbs fat, +53 lbs protein, and +3.7 PL. Those are the kind of numbers that keep operations profitable when everything else goes sideways.

Canada: The Remover Revolution (And What It Really Means)

Now this is where August got really interesting. Stantons Remover PP made this spectacular jump from #7 in April to #1 in August (+3897 LPI). That’s not just a statistical blip—this bull’s backed by 234 daughters across 32 herds, which means we’re looking at real-world validation of genomic predictions.

What strikes me about Remover is his profile. He’s not just high-scoring, he’s balanced in exactly the ways that Canadian producers need as replacement costs keep climbing. The durability traits are there, the production is solid, and crucially, he’s proving himself in diverse management systems across the country.

The genomic young sire category is where things get really exciting, though. OCD Milan-ET leads at +4118 GPA LPI, and his numbers tell a story: +638 Milk, +108 Fat, plus strong type (+10 Mammary System, +6 Feet & Legs). This combination of production and structural soundness is exactly what the Canadian industry has been selecting for—cattle that can handle our diverse climate and management challenges.

European Markets: The Functional Excellence Revolution

United Kingdom: When Genomic Predictions Actually Work

The UK market gave us probably the strongest validation of genomic accuracy we’ve seen recently. Six new daughter-proven sires graduated into the top 10 PLI positions, and here’s the kicker—their proven values are matching their genomic predictions almost perfectly.

OCD Trooper Sheepster emerged as the new proven leader at £779 PLI. His production numbers are impressive (47.8kg fat, 35.7kg protein), but what really catches my attention is the +113-day lifespan improvement. With replacement costs exceeding £ 2,000 per animal, longevity traits like these are becoming the difference between profit and loss.

The genomic leader, Peak AltaValuepack, at £877 PLI, shows even stronger longevity (+122 days) while maintaining solid production (+785kg milk). This represents what I think is the modern ideal—comprehensive genetic merit that addresses both production and durability.

What’s particularly noteworthy is how Genosource Captain dropped to fifth place (£723 PLI) despite having over 2,000 UK milking daughters. This displacement illustrates how rapidly genetic progress can transform breeding hierarchies when functional traits take precedence over other traits. The Captain has been a reliable choice for years, but the industry’s moving toward health, fertility, and efficiency traits faster than many expected.

Germany: Precision Breeding at Its Finest

German evaluations consistently demonstrate why their breeding program is considered world-class. Proven leader Zivet commands RZG 147 through this impressive balance: +1,971 kg milk, +88 kg fat, +86 kg protein, combined with functional traits (RZN 121, RZGes 113) that actually work in commercial settings.

The genomic sphere produced these twin leaders in Evenstar and Pennywise, both at RZG 164. Evenstar’s projections (+2,090 kg milk, +120 kg fat, +69 kg protein, RZN 134) position him as a premium choice for operations serious about maximizing both production and longevity.

What’s interesting is how Red Holstein genetics keep showing up in top rankings. Ginger leads proven sires at RZG 143 with +2,638 kg milk through 510 daughters. In genomics, Schach achieved RZG 161. This demonstrates continued genetic progress in color variants—something that’s becoming increasingly important as producers seek ways to differentiate their cattle.

Italy: The Volatility That Should Worry Everyone

The Italian evaluations provided the starkest illustration of genomic volatility I’ve seen. Peak Spellbound-ET surged to #1 genomic position at 5458 gPFT—he’s an Overdrive son showing impressive components (+1.07% fat, +0.54% protein) that appeal to Italy’s cheese-focused industry.

But here’s what should concern every breeder: the dramatic swings in genomic rankings. Bulls gaining or losing 100 points or more in a single evaluation raise serious questions about reliability. This underscores why the Italian proven bull rankings, where ZFZ Crisalis RF maintains steady leadership at 5169 gPFT, provide such important stability.

The Italian ICS-PR€ index tells another story entirely. Smartie P-ET leads with 1398 ICS-PR€, demonstrating the economic reality that in value-added dairy systems, components matter more than volume. This is particularly relevant as more operations explore premium markets.

The Trends That Are Reshaping Everything

Health and Longevity: No Longer Optional

What’s becoming increasingly clear across all markets is that health and longevity traits are no longer nice-to-have features—they’re essential for profitability. PROGENESIS WATCHMAN’s elite 8.6 Health Index represents the kind of defensive genetics that operations need against rising veterinary costs.

The UK’s emphasis on HealthyCow values and Germany’s focus on RZGes scores reflect an industry-wide recognition that profitable cows must first be healthy cows. This isn’t just about animal welfare (though that matters), it’s about economic survival in an environment where every sick cow threatens your bottom line.

Component Production: The New Economic Reality

The shift toward fat and protein production rather than volume alone is evident everywhere you look. German proven sire Ginger’s +2,638 kg milk production demonstrates that volume still matters, but bulls like Peak Spellbound-ET, with +1.07% fat, are capturing attention in component-focused markets.

This trend makes sense when considering where milk prices are headed. Component premiums are becoming more significant, and operations that can deliver high-quality fat and protein are seeing better returns than those focused purely on volume.

Polled Integration: Finally Happening Seamlessly

Polled genetics are showing up in top rankings without the performance compromises we used to see. Germany’s Create P achieving RZG 161 and Canada’s Vogue A2P2-PP maintaining +15 CONF demonstrate successful integration of polled traits into elite genetic packages.

This matters because consumer pressure around dehorning isn’t going away, and having polled options that don’t sacrifice performance removes a major management headache.

The Bloodline Concentration Problem

Here’s something that should concern everyone: the dominance of specific sire lines across multiple countries. Overdrive sons appear in top rankings across markets, while Genosource genetics dominate US economic merit rankings.

This concentration delivers short-term genetic progress, but it’s creating long-term risks to breed adaptability. We’ve seen this movie before with other breeds, and it doesn’t end well if we’re not careful about maintaining genetic diversity.

Economic Pressures Driving Everything

Feed Efficiency: The Make-or-Break Trait

With feed costs still elevated in 2025, bulls showing superior feed conversion are becoming premium choices. The UK’s emphasis on Maintenance Index scores and Italy’s ICS-PR€ rankings reflect an industry that can no longer afford inefficient genetics.

Genosource Captain’s Feed Advantage, with a +255, exemplifies why these traits matter so much. When margins are this tight, feed efficiency often determines profitability more than raw production numbers. This is basic math that every operation needs to understand.

Replacement Costs: Why Longevity Pays

Rising replacement heifer costs are elevating longevity traits to critical importance. OCD Trooper Sheepster’s +113 days lifespan improvement and Peak AltaValuepack’s +122 days longevity represent real economic value when replacements cost $2,000+ per animal.

The math here is straightforward—every additional lactation from a cow represents thousands of dollars in value. Operations that ignore longevity traits in favor of short-term production are essentially choosing to hemorrhage money on replacement costs.

What This Means for Your Breeding Strategy

The Portfolio Approach (Because Balance Matters)

The volatility we’re seeing suggests genetic diversification rather than relying on a single bloodline. Successful operations are adopting portfolio approaches—combining proven reliability with selective use of high-potential genomics. My recommendation? Build genetic portfolios with 60-70% proven sires and 30-40% genomic young sires, adjusting based on your risk tolerance and genetic progress objectives. This captures advancement while maintaining reliability.

Market-Specific Selection (One Size Doesn’t Fit All)

Each market’s payment systems and management conditions require tailored strategies. Italian producers focused on cheese production, with weight component percentages, differently than Canadian operations that sell fluid milk.

UK producers must balance production with stringent health and welfare requirements.

This means you can’t just follow rankings blindly—you need to understand what traits actually drive profitability in your specific market situation.

Timing Genomic Adoption (When to Jump, When to Wait)

The UK’s validation of genomic predictions through proven daughters provides confidence for early adoption of superior young sires. However, the Italian experience suggests that extensive use of unproven genetics carries a substantial risk.

Successful breeders are adopting measured approaches—using genomic bulls selectively while maintaining core breeding programs on proven genetics. It’s about being progressive without being reckless.

Looking Forward: The Real Strategic Imperatives

What the August 2025 evaluations really reveal is that the industry is striking a balance between the promise of genomics and economic reality. The winners aren’t chasing the highest TPI or PLI scores—they’re building profitable, sustainable herds adapted to their specific conditions.

Success belongs to breeders who strategically combine proven genetics as their foundation with selective genomic advancement. The future isn’t about choosing between proven and genomic selection—it’s about leveraging both approaches to create cattle that thrive in an increasingly challenging environment.

The real winners are already emerging, and they’re not just showing up in rankings. They’re showing up in milk checks and bottom lines of operations that have learned to balance genetic potential with economic reality. Because at the end of the day, that’s what actually matters in this business.

Read complete breakdowns for each country here:

• August 2025 US Proofs: A Guide to the Real Winners and Winning Strategies
• Canadian Holstein Genetics Heat Up: A New #1 Proven Sire and What the August ’25 Rankings Really Mean
• Major Shakeup in UK Holstein Rankings as New Leaders Emerge in August 2025 Evaluations
• Germany’s August 2025 Holstein Rankings Reveal New Genetic Kings
• Peak Spellbound-ET Surges to Top of Italian Genomic Rankings in August 2025 Evaluations

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