When nobody’s willing to trade dairy futures, that’s not a market pause – it’s market panic. Your milk check knows the difference.

Executive Summary: Today’s complete trading freeze at CME – zero sales across all products – screams one thing: this market’s at a breaking point. Butter plummeting to $1.65 puts it below cheese for the first time since 2021, flipping your entire component strategy upside down. With Class III at $17.19 and Class IV at $14.60, your October milk check just lost $1.50-2.00/cwt versus last month. Mexico’s actively replacing 507 million pounds of our exports while Texas adds three plants needing 5 billion pounds of milk – whether you’re profitable or not. The smart operators are locking in feed at $4.22 corn and hedging milk before this gets worse. Tomorrow’s $1.70 cheese support level? Break that and we’re in freefall territory.

Listen, I’ve been watching these markets for over two decades, and what happened today tells me we’re at one of those inflection points that could go either way. Zero trades across the board – that’s not normal market behavior. When everyone’s sitting on their hands like this, it usually means something’s about to break.

Let’s start with what matters most to you: butter took another hit today, dropping 1.75 cents to $1.65/lb. That’s putting real pressure on your Class IV milk, and if you’re heavy on butterfat production, you’re feeling it. Meanwhile, cheese blocks nudged up a quarter-cent to $1.7375/lb – not much, but at least it’s heading in the right direction.

Today’s Price Action: Real Numbers for Real Farmers

Here’s what’s really interesting: yesterday, we saw 22 butter trades before everything went silent today. That tells me buyers stepped back after pushing prices lower – they’re waiting to see if sellers get desperate. The fact that butter is now trading below cheese for the first time since 2021? That’s a fundamental shift that will reshape your milk checks through winter.

Trading Floor Intelligence: Reading Between the Lines

The bid/ask spreads today paint a clear picture. Butter showed two bids against four offers – more sellers than buyers, confirming the weakness. Cheese blocks had a tighter spread with two bids and one offer, which is actually encouraging if you’re long on Class III.

What really caught my attention was the complete absence of trading. Zero sales across all products versus 56 total trades earlier this week. I’ve seen this pattern before – the last time markets went this quiet, cheese dropped 4 cents in two sessions. If blocks break below $1.70 tomorrow, expect accelerated selling.

Global Markets: The Competition’s Getting Tougher

You need to understand what’s happening globally because it’s directly affecting your milk check. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s May 2025 report, Mexico’s milk production reached 7.91 billion liters in the first seven months of 2025, representing a 2.3% increase from the same period in 2024. Their July production alone hit 1.22 billion liters, a 1.8% year-over-year increase.

Here’s what keeps me up at night: Mexico’s targeting a significant reduction in powder imports over the next five years. They’re already producing 13.9 million metric tons of milk annually and building more processing capacity. If current trends hold, Mexico could displace about 230,000 metric tons of our NFDM exports by 2026 – that’s roughly 507 million pounds.

Meanwhile, we’re seeing mixed signals from other markets. China’s dairy imports through July 2025 reached 1.77 million tons, up 6% year-over-year, according to Chinese customs data. However, here’s the context that nobody’s talking about – it’s still 28% below their 2021 peak of 2.46 million tons. Their whole milk powder imports specifically dropped 13% to just 292,000 tons through July, while whey imports jumped 16% to 411,000 tons.

Export Volumes That Matter (January-July 2025)

• Mexico fluid milk imports: Down 21% projected for full year to 30,000 MT
• Mexico SMP imports: Up 13% projected to 230,000 MT
• China total dairy imports: 1.77 million tons, up 6% YoY but down 28% from the 2021 peak
• China WMP imports: 292,000 tons, down 13% YoY
• Southeast Asia growth: 7% annually, but extremely price-sensitive

Feed Costs: The Only Good News Today

At least feed markets are cooperating. Corn’s sitting at $4.22/bushel and soybean meal at $278.10/ton – both well below last year’s averages. Your milk-to-feed ratio is roughly 2.35, down from 2.51 in August but still profitable if you’re managing other costs well.

Here’s the regional reality check: Wisconsin farmers are seeing corn $15-$20/ton cheaper than California producers due to lower transportation costs. At current prices, you’re looking at about $7.80/cwt over feed costs – tight but manageable. The DMC program hasn’t triggered payments in over a year because these low feed costs are masking the margin squeeze from other expenses, such as labor and minerals.

Production Reality: Where All This Milk Is Going

The USDA’s latest forecast projects milk production to reach 228 billion pounds in 2025, a 300 million-pound increase from its previous estimate and 1.7 billion pounds above the 2024 level. But here’s what they’re not highlighting in those numbers – it’s WHERE this milk is being produced that matters.

Texas production increased 10.6% year-over-year, while Wisconsin’s production barely changed at 0.1%. We’ve added 57,000 cows nationally since the labor total year, bringing us to 6.8 million head, according to the. However, the data for these cows are concentrated in states with new processing capacity. That $11 billion in new processing investment everyone’s talking about? It requires an additional 15 billion pounds of milk by 2028. Three new cheese plants in Texas alone.

Herd dynamics tell an interesting story. Producers added 50,000 head in 2024, according to Mexico’s AMLAC data (yes, I’m tracking their numbers too – know your competition), but beef-on-dairy breeding is keeping heifer supplies tight here at home. That controlled growth might be the only thing preventing a complete price collapse.

What’s Really Driving These Prices

Looking at the domestic side, retail demand is steady but nothing spectacular. Food service is picking up heading into the holiday season, but it’s not enough to absorb all this new production. According to USDA AMS data from 2016 to 2025, retail cheese prices have remained in a $3.49 to $4.39 per pound range, with an average of $3.94. That ceiling is keeping a lid on Class III prices.

The export story gets more complex by the day. We’re $200-300/MT cheaper than EU competitors on cheese, which is helping us maintain market share. However, New Zealand’s aggressive pricing in Southeast Asia is eroding our powder markets, and their October SMP futures at $2,590/MT translate to approximately $1.18/lb – not far from our current spot price of $1.15.

Forward Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves

The USDA’s projecting Class III to average $18.80/cwt for 2025, down from earlier estimates, while Class IV is expected to average $20.40/cwt. But here’s the thing about these forecasts – they don’t come with confidence intervals. Based on historical accuracy, you should probably think of these as plus or minus 50 cents with about 70% confidence.

The futures market is pricing in continued weakness. October Class III settled at $17.19/cwt while Class IV hit $14.60/cwt – that inversion tells you everything about where traders think butterfat is heading.

Intraday Volatility Patterns

According to research on dairy futures volatility from Wisconsin’s ag economics department, volatility typically peaks between USDA announcements and diminishes as contracts approach expiration. We’re 10 days from the October expiration, so expect increased price swings if any significant news hits.

Regional Focus: Upper Midwest Reality Check

Wisconsin and Minnesota producers, you’re facing a unique challenge. Despite being the traditional dairy heartland, your growth has stalled at 0.1%, while the southwestern states are booming. Local processors report adequate to surplus milk supplies, which is putting downward pressure on your premiums.

The saving grace? Strong local cheese demand is absorbing most of your production. However, with the new Texas plants coming online, you will face increased competition for markets. Several producers I know in Dodge County are already adjusting their breeding programs to focus more on components rather than volume.

Action Items for Your Operation

First, take a hard look at your Q4 risk management. October $17 puts are still reasonably priced, and with this market uncertainty, some downside protection makes sense.

Second, with butter this weak, it’s time to reconsider your component strategy. If you’re heavy on Jerseys or running high butterfat rations, the math might not work anymore. Focus on protein – that’s where the money is right now.

Third, lock in those feed prices. Current corn and bean prices offer opportunities to secure favorable rates through Q1 2026. Don’t wait for the market to turn.

And don’t forget – the DMC enrollment deadline is October 31. I know the program hasn’t paid out recently, but at these milk prices, it’s cheap insurance.

Industry Intelligence You Need to Know

That $11 billion processing expansion is reshaping everything. Texas alone is adding three cheese plants that’ll need 5 billion pounds of milk. But here’s what nobody’s talking about – Nestlé just withdrew from a global methane emissions alliance, and several major retailers are reconsidering their sustainability requirements. This could affect premium programs that many of you are counting on.

The Barfresh acquisition of Arps Dairy demonstrates that consolidation is still occurring at the processor level. When processors consolidate, farmers usually lose negotiating power. Keep that in mind as you plan your marketing strategy.

Putting Today in Perspective

Today’s silent market follows Monday’s brutal session, where cheese crashed 4 cents and butter tanked 5.5 cents. The lack of trading suggests everyone’s reassessing after that shock. Historically, October marks the transition from flush spring production to tighter winter supplies, but with 228 billion pounds of milk projected this year, those seasonal patterns no longer hold the same significance.

What I have learned from decades in this business is that quiet markets, like today, often precede significant moves. With butter trading below cheese, expanding milk production, and our largest export customer actively working to replace us, the bearish factors are stacking up. But markets have a way of surprising us when sentiment gets too one-sided.

Stay focused on what you can control – your cost structure, component quality, and risk management. The survivors in this cycle will be the ones making smart decisions now, not waiting for markets to recover. Because while prices always cycle, the structure of this industry is changing permanently, and you need to position yourself accordingly.

Tomorrow, watch those $1.70 cheese supports closely. If they break, we could see accelerated selling into the October contract expiration. And keep an eye on Thursday’s export data – any surprise there could shift this market quickly.

KEY TAKEAWAYS 

• The Trading Floor Went Silent: Zero CME trades today – when markets freeze like this, smart money knows something’s about to break. If cheese drops below $1.70 tomorrow, we’re looking at $16 Class III by month-end.
• Your Component Strategy Just Died: Butter at $1.65 versus cheese at $1.7375 flips 30 years of breeding wisdom. Those high-butterfat Jerseys you’ve been selecting? They’re costing you money now.
• Mexico’s Done Being Our Customer: They’re displacing 507 million pounds of our exports while Texas builds plants needing 5 billion pounds. Translation: too much milk, shrinking markets, and you’re caught in the middle.
• Tomorrow Decides Everything: Break $1.70 cheese support and this market goes into freefall. Lock in feed at $4.22 corn today, hedge your Q4 milk tonight, and prepare for $15 Class III if support fails.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

• 11 Proven Strategies to Lower Feed Costs and Boost Efficiency on Your Dairy – This how-to guide provides actionable strategies for minimizing feed waste, optimizing rations, and improving feed conversion ratios. It offers practical steps to secure margins and reduce operational costs, directly complementing the main article’s focus on tight milk-to-feed ratios.
• Genetic Revolution: How Record-Breaking Milk Components Are Reshaping Dairy’s Future – This strategic analysis reveals how genomics and AI are driving record gains in butterfat and protein. It provides essential context for the butter-below-cheese market shift and demonstrates how to leverage new breeding strategies to position your herd for long-term component value.

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