Archive for Genetic Evaluation System – Page 3

Interpretation of Functional Trait Evaluations in Practical Terms

Traits – there are currently more than 60 for which CDN routinely calculates and publishes genetic evaluations. Look outside of Canada and you’ll see traits expressed on different scales, with different averages and diverse meanings.

To simplify understanding and maintain consistency among proof expression, several years ago Canada decided to express functional traits in the form of Relative Breeding Values.

What is a Relative Breeding Value?

A Relative Breeding Value (RBV) is a genetic prediction, just like any other breeding value you see on pedigrees, A.I. proof sheets, CDN’s website, or elsewhere. However, an RBV differs in that it has been standardized to a certain scale. In Canada, RBVs for functional traits have been standardized so the average is always 100 for proven sires born in the most recent ten years. Using the trait Herd Life as an example, average bulls in the breed for Herd Life will have a RBV of 100 for that trait. Bulls that are worse than average for Herd Life will have an RBV lower than 100 while above-average bulls for Herd Life will have an RBV above 100. This proof expression is similar to the scale used for type traits, except there the breed average is zero instead of 100.

In addition to having an average of 100, RBVs have a standard deviation of 5, which is consistent with the variation observed for type traits. The distribution of bull proofs as RBVs can be seen in Figure 1 below. For any given functional trait, a standard deviation of 5 means:

  • 68% of all bulls will have a rating between 95 and 105
  • 27% of all bulls will have a rating of 90-95 or 105-110
  • 4% of all bulls will have a rating of 85-90 or 110-115 and
  •  1% of all bulls will have a rating below 85 or above 115

In other words, you could say only 2.5% of bulls have a RBV of 110 or greater for any given trait. In Canada, functional traits are expressed as RBVs to simplify understanding. Using RBVs, producers always know the average bull will have a rating of 100, and they are able to easily identify standout bulls for certain traits.

figure1[1]

Translating RBVs into Expected Daughter Performance

Sire RBVs for functional traits can be expressed in terms of expected daughter performance. Table 1 shows the expected average daughter performance associated with an increase of 5 RBV points for various functional traits. For example, you can expect daughters of a bull with a RBV of 105 for Daughter Fertility to have 4 fewer days open compared to daughters of a bull with a Daughter Fertility of 100. This equivalence of 4 days open and 5 RBV points is consistent across the entire proof scale from 85 (poorest bulls) to 115 (best bulls). In addition, Daughter Fertility evaluations can also be translated into expected gains for pregnancy rate. For example, assuming your herd’s pregnancy rate is 20%, you’d expect daughters of a bull rated 105 for Daughter Fertility to have a pregnancy rate of 21.3% (+1.3% for each increase of 5 RBV points), while the daughters of a bull with a Daughter Fertility of 95 would have a pregnancy rate of 18.7%.
table1[1]

A more extreme difference can be seen when looking at bulls that differ by more than 5 RBV points for a given trait. For example, consider two bulls for Herd Life; one with a proof of 95 and the other with a proof of 110. Based on their sire alone, you’d expect daughters of the higher rated bull to have 5.7 (1.9 x 3 = 5.7) more months of productive life in the herd and 15.9% more daughters surviving to fourth calving compared to daughters of the lower rated bull.

In addition to Daughter Fertility and Herd Life, Table 1 also provides information for understanding the expected difference in average daughter performance associated with any increase of 5 RBV points for Mastitis Resistance, Calving Ability and Daughter Calving Ability. For each trait, producers can decided which measure of daughter performance is most meaningful for their herd improvement goals and genetic selection decisions.

Summary

To facilitate the understanding and use of the increasing amount of genetic information available for bulls, functional traits are expressed as Relative Breeding Values (RBV). While the use of such a standardized scale of proof expression helps to easily identify significant breed improvers for each trait, as well as the low end bulls to be used with caution, RBVs do not provide producers with a clear description of how much better one bull’s daughters will perform compared to daughters of other bulls. Luckily, however, differences in RBV values for each functional trait can be translated into associated differences in the expected average performance of daughters. For sake of simplicity, one need only to recall the equivalent change in average daughter performance associated with an increase of 5 RBV points and the subsequent interpretation is quite straightforward. The bottom line is that genetic evaluations aim to identify relative differences among sires and the use of RBVs also provides simple translation equivalents to further enhance the understanding and expectations of a bull’s daughters based on their proof for functional traits.

Authors: Lynsay Beavers, Industry Liaison Coordinator, CDN Brian Van Doormaal, General Manager, CDN

CDN Appoints New Coordinator of Data

Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) General Manager, Brian Van Doormaal, is pleased to announce the appointment of Mrs. Jamie Zimmerman as Coordinator of Data Exchange and Information Services, effective December 8, 2014.

In this position within the Information Services department of CDN, Jamie will be responsible for receiving, processing and validating all incoming data from industry partners as well as the distribution of outgoing data files to authorized organizations. She will also assist in providing services to CDN customers, especially in the area of data exchange and integrity as well as to thegrowing number of users of the CDN web site.

Jamie is not a stranger to the Canadian dairy cattle improvement industry and the data collected from herds across the country. From June 2011 to March 2014, she was employed by Holstein Canada. Working within the Herdbook and Genotyping department, she carried out various functions including entry and editing of herdbook registration applications, processing animal transfers and all activities associated with embryo exports internationally. More recently, she has been the Programs Assistant for the Growing Forward 2 Program at the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association located in Guelph, Ontario.

“There is no doubt that Jamie’s past experience working in the dairy industry, combined with her enthusiasm and affable personality makes her a great fit for this role and we welcome her to the CDN team”, commented Brian Van Doormaal. He added, “It is important to also recognize the significant and loyal contribution of Mrs. Marilyn Halls, who has held this position for the past 17 years and will soon become the first retiree of CDN since its creation in 1995.”

Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) is the national genetic evaluation centre for dairy cattle and provides services to Canadian dairy producers and member organizations including breed associations, DHI agencies, A.I. organizations and Dairy Farmers of Canada. It also serves as the hub of the national Data Exchange System by which all dairy cattle improvement industry organizations share authorized data collected from dairy herds across the country.

The CDN web site serves as the primary source of genetic information for dairy cattle in Canada with over 23,000 unique users every month.

Do dairy breeders need to classify, milk record and register their dairy cattle?

It has been six years since genomic, genetic evaluations were introduced in North America.  Since that time, every part of the dairy improvement industry has changed. The business of artificial insemination has changed from selling predominantly proven sires and having to reward breeders for using young sires to young sire semen which now costs more than proven sire semen and accounts for more than half the semen sales.  On the one hand, there’s a growing misconception that genomics will replace traditional data recording systems, such as those offered by DHI and breed associations.  However, the reality is that, with genomics, accurate and complete performance data is required, in order to maintain the accuracy of genetic evaluations and allow a wider list of traits to be evaluated.

The question becomes where will that genetic information come from, if everyone stops classifying, registering and milk recording?

Accuracy comes from validating data with proven sires

Current genomic evaluations are more accurate than previous traditional evaluations primarily as a result of the large reference population of genotyped progeny proven sires. Without such a significant reference population, genomic evaluations would only offer small gains in accuracy compared to the significant move from 33% to 66% accuracy that a 50K genomic tested young sire currently receives.

The collection of performance data leads to a steady supply of new progeny proven bulls. Without these bulls continually expanding  the reference population, young bulls selected for A.I. would get further away  (and therefore less genetically related) from the proven sires in the reference population. Over time, this would negatively affect the accuracy of genomic evaluations, and we would actually start to see reliability figures decline.

Genomics have allowed us to make even faster genetic progress, however we still need field data for production, health, and conformation, in order to keep and even increase the reliability of the current genetic evaluation system.

Without genomics, test day records or a classification, a cow would maintain her Parent Average (PA) for all production and type traits for her entire life. She would thereby miss out on the opportunity to further enhance the accuracy of her genetic evaluations. Milk recording and classification data are added to the cow’s contribution from PA to produce an Estimated Breeding Value (EBV) that is more accurate than without it. For example, consider a first lactation cow that was genotyped as a heifer. Upon classification, the reliability of this animal’s Conformation index will increase from 68% to 75%. Once a lactation is completed, the reliability of her production index will increase from 73% to 78%. Despite the jump in reliability achieved by genotyping, the incorporation of performance data boosts the reliability, making the cow’s evaluation indexes even more accurate by approximately 10%. (Read more: Three Reasons Why Performance Data Will Always Be Important for Genetic Improvement)

Where does that data come from?

One of the more pertinent questions I hear being asked more frequently is, do we need to use official milk recording and type classification systems in order to validate this data?

With the introduction of on-farm computer systems, many breeders are not finding it necessary to use official DHIA milk recording systems.  That means instead of doing bi-weekly or monthly or sporadic tests for production, components and Somatic Cell Score, breeders who use Robots, for example, get this information with every milking.  This is a far more accurate way to measure production values. Instead of using algorithms to merely predict the in-between production data, these systems are working with the actual numbers.  In fact, these systems are such a complete herd management tool, `that they have metrics and information on many areas the current systems cannot even begin to predict. (Read more: The Future of Dairy Cattle Breeding Is in the Data, and Forget Genomics– Epigenomonics & Nutrigenomics are the future)

In speaking with many of the principal suppliers  in the robotic milking marketplace, they  often comment on that  the dairy breeding industry not only could have more accurate information, but  could also add indexes for more directly applicable evaluations such as feed efficiency.  While many organizations are trying to present algorithms to predict this measure, we could actually have performance data, which would significantly accelerate the accuracy and the rate of genetic gain in this core profitability area.

I have often heard the opposing argument from supporters of the current system. They cite that, since these numbers are not validated or conducted by a non-biased third party, how accurate can they be?  I find this argument doesn’t have any weight at all.   I have seen many hot house herds which have been able to “skew” the current numbers when they needed to. The argument that a third party verifies things means nothing.   With the fact that most new systems are computer based, there is actually the potential to implement a much more secure system for data integrity than the current process allows.  So really, the case for mandatory use of DHIA records is actually allowing far greater inaccuracy of the system, than if we accepted more modern computerized methods.

What about type classification?

The argument for the need for type classification is slightly different.  Since there is no computerized system to score a cow or to measure a cow’s conformation, there is no second data set that could be used instead of classification. Or is there?

Type classification was created in order to predict a cow’s longevity.  Isn’t that exactly what herd life and productive life measure?  Moreover, instead of being based on a prediction, they are  rooted in 100% accurate longevity data.  (Read more: Is Type Classification Still Important?,  She Ain’t Pretty – She Just Milks That Way! and Does Classifying Excellent Mean Profitable? Now? In The Future?)

Hence, the argument for the need to validate conformation data through classification is missing the boat.  Instead of trying to hold on to a system rooted in the past, we should embrace the more relevant data and information available. We should change the systems to evaluate genetic progress and merit based on actual information and should not continue to rely on a subjective system which tries to make predictions. The actual information is available.

What About Registration?

On-farm systems are such an accurate and efficient way to record breeding, calving and parenting information that the arm’s length breed association registration is duplication. Genomic testing provides 100% verification of parentage. (Read more: What is the Role of a Dairy Cattle Breed Association?)

The Bullvine Bottom Line

And so we see that the arguments supporting the need to continue type classification, milk recording and registry are becoming redundant.  Instead of trying to keep a system that validates old school genetic evaluation systems that are based on trying to use algorithms to predict genetic merit, we should be embracing the wealth of new and more accurate information that is available. We should be creating a new system that is based on measurable profitability and herd improvement statistics. The only reason that is left for keeping these three expensive programs is because we feel a need to validate an old animal model.  Instead, we should be creating a new animal model. One that accurately reflects the way modern dairy farmers operate.


The Dairy Breeders No BS Guide to Genomics

 

Not sure what all this hype about genomics is all about?

Want to learn what it is and what it means to your breeding program?

Download this free guide.

 

 

 

Understanding Genetic Indexes – Keep It Simple Stupid

Go to any purebred dairy cattle sale and listen to the pedigree person. What are they saying? Usually is an exhortation to buy the animal in the ring because it has a gTPI of 2700 or her dam was Grand Champion at prominent show or she comes from eight generation of Excellent dams.  In essence what we are being told is that this animal is at the top of the breed and you should buy it. So does dairy cattle breeding work by identifying one number, one show or one family and only using that information to make decisions on. I think we all know the answer to that question … and the answer is…. “NO”! But let’s step back and, regardless of a breeder’s focus, look at how the understanding of all the numbers could be simplified when it comes to genetic information on sires.

The Information We See

Three times a year after each index run, breeders are bombarded with fliers, proof sheets, and fancy sire catalogues with numbers, numbers, numbers and cover girl like photos that make you wonder why the classifier only made the pictured first lactation cow GP 80. Was the classifier blind? Is the photo an accurate depiction of the cow? Maybe The Bullvine is right about photo ethics (Read more: Dairy Cattle Photography: Do You Really Think I am That Stupid?, Dairy Cattle Photography – Over Exposed, Introducing the Dairy Marketing Code of Conduct).

But let’s get back to the numbers, numbers for sires.

So many of them. Often expressed differently. What is good and what is not so good? What’s this thing about a base roll on December 2nd and what does it mean for dairy cattle breeders? Why oh why can’t the brainy folks who compile the numbers make them so breeders can quickly look at a number for a proven or genomic bull and know if he is a standout, middle of the road, an also ran or an out-and-out loser. Don’t the genetic types know that bottom-line focused milk producers want quick and simple answers on bull rankings as they plant and harvest crops, handle manure, feed and manage cows, coach 4-H or FFA and yes, educate their children.

What is #1? Does it Matter?

However at the same time that milk producers are asking for simplification, many breeders are striving to have Mr #1 Sire. First it was 2500 gTPI and now it is 2700 gTPI. Or first it was 1000 NM$ and now it is 1150 NM$. Can the difference between 2600 and 2700 gTPI be quantified when it comes to mating cows? If a breeder has a cow that needs improvement in protein yield and feet and legs which sire should he use? Is a sire with 39 lbs of protein and 1.81 for Feet & Legs Composite good enough? Bottom line focused breeders need a universally expressed number for all traits so they can say to their genetic advisor whether to include a sire in the mating program. Of course having a breeding plan that includes needs and priorities is needed for a mating program to be successful. (Read more: What’s the plan?)

Percent is Universal

Every student is trained to understand that 100% is the best mark possible, 75% shows good proficiency and 50% is just a passing grade. So why couldn’t the same thing apply to genetic evaluation results? That way breeders would not need to know what is the very best value, how to distinguish if this is on the new or old base or where a sires daughters are inferior.

Breeders Want to Know

Breeders do not want to carry several files on their electronic device on what is top, good, okay or bad for each trait. All they want to know for the sire they are looking at is – what are his strengths and weaknesses relative to his contemporaries?

Breeders expect their nutritional advisors to know the fine details about balancing rations. As well they expect their genetic advisors to know all about how to improve their cows and herd from a genetic perspective. In both cases breeders expect their advisors to use the KISS principle – Keep It Simple Stupid. (Read more: gPs– Genetic Profile Systems – Dairy Cattle Breeding Made Simple)

Does This Fit Breeders Needs?

The following charts are provided so Bullvine readers can consider if breeding the females in their herds would be easier for them if sire indexes were expressed on a percent basis. A percentage of what the very best contemporary’s index is.

Table 1 – Top Ten gTPI Daughter Proven Sires (Aug ’14) Expressed as a Percent*

Segment#Avg. LPIAvg. Sale PricePrice/LPI Point
>3000LPI803286$60,021 $18.26
>2000 LPI <30001642589$16,384 $6.51
<2000 LPI561637$8,879 $5.42
R&W262093$24,600 $11.75
Polled262275$37,076 $16.30
Show Heifers or All-Canadian Pedigree522005$17,154 $8.56

* Percent of the index for the #1 sire for the trait within the category

A quick review of Table 1 shows:

  • Facebook achieves the #1 position based on his high production and good type classification conformation
  • Dorcy, AltaGreatness and Large daughters have the udders
  • AltaGreatness, AltaFairway and Junior are below average compared to their marketed contemporaries for Feet & Legs
  • As a group all these sires can be expected to produce daughters that are very high for gTPI
  • Breeding on gTPI only will miss the fact that sires have strengths and limitations
  • Using only the top gTPI sires is not likely to produce show winners

Table 2 – Top Ten gTPI Genomic Sires (Aug ’14) Expressed as a Percent*

RANKNAME# OF DAUGHTERSPTATUdder CompF&L CompBody CompDairy CompStature
1BRAEDALE GOLDWYN553.032.592.561.932.033.1
2REGANCREST ELTON DURHAM-ET212.472.312.131.71.982.13
3KHW KITE ADVENT-RED-ET192.532.241.62.041.652.41
4REGANCREST DUNDEE-ET182.062.180.751.291.551.18
5GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZ143.072.172.443.342.833.91
6WILCOXVIEW JASPER-ET112.891.940.732.562.523.22
7ERBACRES DAMION83.22.223.172.832.722.76
7MAPLE-DOWNS-I G W ATWOOD-ET84.163.413.463.442.974.31
9PICSTON SHOTTLE-ET62.661.971.792.422.32.71
9ROYLANE JORDAN-ET62.071.940.321.532.061.93

* Percent of the index for the #1 sire for the trait within the category

A quick review of Table 2 shows:

  • Very little separates #1 and #10 on the list. Remember that genomic bulls are 70% Rel.
  • Within individual traits there is considerable variation among these sires
  • The percentages identify that every sire has one or more limiting factors
  • As is always recommended use several genomic sires instead of one or two
  • Supershot, Delicious Coin, Delta and Rubicon are high for production
  • Alta1stClass, Kingboy and Monterey stand out for conformation

Table 3- Top Ten NM$ Daughter Proven Sires (Aug ’14) Expressed as a Percent*

Segment#Avg. LPIAvg. Sale PricePrice/LPI Point
>3000LPI803286$60,021$18.26
>2000 LPI <30001642589$16,384$6.51
<2000 LPI561637$8,879$5.42
R&W262093$24,600$11.75
Polled262275$37,076$16.30
Show Heifers or All-Canadian Pedigree522005$17,154$8.56

* Percent of the index for the #1 sire for the trait within the category

A quick review of Table 3 shows:

  • The vast majority of these sires will have daughters that produce high volumes of fat and protein
  • Yano, Erdman, Marian944 and Twist stand out for Productive Life
  • Robust is in a league all his own for Daughter Calving Ease
  • Twist claims #3 position on NM$ and has high PL, SCS and DPR.
  • SCS needs to be interpreted carefully as sires with poor SCS are not returned to active service

Table 4 – Top Ten NM$ Genomic Sire (Aug ’14) Expressed as a Percent*

Segment#Avg. LPIAvg. Sale Price
Picks742789$28,622
Heifers2032528$24,588
Cows232330$46,839
Total3002476$27,289

* Percent of the index for the #1 sire for the trait within the category

A quick review of Table 4 shows:

  • Percentages make it quick and easy to identify both strengths and limitations for a sire
  • Delta, Supershot and Dozer do not have significant limitations
  • Eight of the sires have over 80% for Productive Life
  • SCS, DPR and DCE percentages vary quite a bit but that’s to be expected for sires that do not have milking daughters

The Bullvine Bottom Line

Understanding index values is important but having multiple ways of expressing the results of genetic evaluations can result in breeders saying “Too much information. Give it to me in terms I can quickly comprehend”. Being a good dairy farmer requires that managers know a great deal about many disciplines. A good dairy farmer understands that effective breeding requires equal parts art (cow sense) and science (number crunching). Simplifying the expression of genetic evaluation results could be a step forward for all breeders.


The Dairy Breeders No BS Guide to Genomics

 

Not sure what all this hype about genomics is all about?

Want to learn what it is and what it means to your breeding program?

Download this free guide.

 

 

 

US Genetic Evaluation Changes: Are You Keeping Up?

There is an old saying about “Keeping up with the Joneses”. The term is often attached to things that happen in high society, but it can also be attached to the purchase of material things. Three decades ago it was installing a home swimming pool. Ten to fifteen years ago it was making sure that your children were introduced to the use of a computer. Recently it has been joining Facebook? Well, dairy cattle breeding is not exempt from change.  Today The Bullvine wishes to overview and provide some comments about keeping up with the changes in genetic indexes for December 2014 recently announced by the Council On Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB). For readers interested in exact details, they can go to  https://www.cdcb.us/New/News.htm.

Weekly Genomic Evaluations

The first thing to take note of is that genomic indexes will be available every Tuesday (8 am Eastern Time) for animals that have had their analysis completed in the past week.  These weekly released indexes will be approximate as they will not be a full run of the evaluation system. Then once a month the full evaluation will be done and released on the first Tuesday of the month. Some breeders will ask ‘Why do an approximation? Just release the results monthly’.  There are two reasons for this move: 1) The work flow at the analysis lab can be evened out throughout the month; and 2) Breeders can select, sell or cull animals (or embryos) earlier thereby minimizing the expense of raising calves.

Be Clear About the Release Date

For buyers, using genomic evaluation results, it will be important that they ask for the date of release of the results.  It is entirely likely that this change to weekly genomic releases will create confusion until breeders are aware that weekly releases are approximations and until CDCB irons out any wrinkles there may be at the start. As well buyers interested in knowing how close to the top of an elite list that an animal is will need to do extra checking. I think we all knew that in time there would be more and more frequent reporting of animal’s genetic indexes. Dairy cattle breeding is faster every year that’s what happens when genetic advancement is rapid. Breeders need to make sure that they ask if an animal tops the list at the time of the official releases in Dec, April or August, or at the time of the nine other monthly releases, or on a weekly release.  Make sure you ask for the release date.

Base Roll

Every five years the base to which all animals are compared is updated. In December, the base will change to all cows born in 2010 from all cows born in 2005. On the CDCB website, the changes for all traits and all breeds are listed. Table 1 lists are some of the changes in indexes breeders can expect for Holsteins and Jerseys both of which have made significant genetic improvement from 2005 to 2010.

Table 1 – Index Changes That Will Occur in December 2014

Holstein Jersey
Net Merit $ -184 -124
Protein (lbs) -12 -12
Fat (lbs) -17 -19
Milk (lbs) -382 -327
Productive Life (months) -1 -0.8
SCS 0.07 -0.04
DPR -0.2 0
CE 0.4 n/a
DCE 1.6 n/a
UDC -0.92 -0.33
FLC -0.78 -0.15
BDC -0.61 -0.15
Final Score -0.99 -0.53

Breeders can expect that bulls and cows will have their genetic indexes lowered.  The relative rank of animals, of course, will not change. All animals will be affected to the same degree. Bulls that were $700 NM will now be $516 NM.  A base change time is an excellent time for breeders to re-evaluate the minimum values they will require bulls or replacement females to meet.

NM$ Index

Based on the up-to-date facts on genetic merit of the USA dairy populations and the economics of dairy farming in the USA, researchers at USDA-AIPL have fine-tuned the Net Merit index formula. Table 2 provides a comparison of the traits included and their weights for the formula used from 2010 to 2014 and the new formula for 2015.

Table 2 – Traits and Weights * in NM$

2010 2015**
Milk 0 -1
Fat 19 22
Protein 16 20
PL 22 19
SCS -10 -7
UDC 7 8
FLC 4 3
BDC -6 -5
DPR 11 7
CCR 0 2
HCR 0 1
CA$ 5 5

* A negative value indicates that a higher rated animal impacts negatively on NM$
** Indexes that will be issued on December 02, 2014

The changes may not seem major, but it should be noted that the emphasis on production traits are increasing from 35% to 43%.  This is similar to the change in emphasis that will occur in TPI in December (link to MSH’s article on changes for TPI). Breeders can expect that there will be re-ranking of bulls for NM$ especially for bulls that either excel or are below average for their production traits indexes. Animals that excelled for SCS, PL and DPR, can be expected to fall back relative to other animals in the breeding population. Breeders should take time to go through the new rankings in December before ordering semen, purchasing embryos or replacement females.

A New Grazing Index

Based on breeder requests, CDCB will be producing a fourth total merit index called Grazing Merit (GM$). The three previous total merit indexes, Net, Cheese and Fluid will remain in place. GM$ will take into account the needs of grazing herds and reflect the need in those herds for high fertility and seasonal calving cycles. With the move, in some regions or countries, to have the cows harvest their own forage and the production of milk during the growing season, this index is sure to get serious consideration.

Fertility Indexes

As noted in Table 2 heifer and cow conception rate genetic indexes are now included in the NM$ formula. The rationale is, of course that a conception must take place before there is a pregnancy. Fertility will no longer be solely DPR. As well the methodology for determining DPR will change with more information incorporated into the calculation. Breeders can expect that for some sires, there may be changes in their DPR as the correlation between the previous and the December DPR proofs is only 0.97.

New Genetic Evaluation Software

The new software has been used for calculating all fertility indexes since December 2013. This change in software will not be as obvious to breeders. The software in use previously was implemented in 1989. Since then, computational strategies and methodologies have been significantly enhanced. Extensive comparisons have shown that, for the daughter proven sires, the correlation between the evaluation results for the new and old software is 0.995. That is very high. However for cows and genomically and parent average evaluated animals, there may be some changes due to a software change.

Sign Up to Learn More

Holstein USA wants all breeders, regardless of which breeds they have in their herd, to have the latest details before December 02.  They will be doing that by hosting a webinar on November 13 at 1 pm Eastern Time.  Details on the webinar can be found by going to http://www.holsteinusa.com and on the home page will be found a link to the webinar. Click on the link – people wishing to participate in the webinar will need to register.  Interested people should register early.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

It is recommended that breeders take the time after the indexes are released on December 02 to go through the official listings with the goal of objectively selecting the animals, especially sires, which best meet their breeding plan. (Read more: What’s the plan?). We say objectively because it could well be that a sire you were using this fall no longer ranks high enough for you to continue to use him. However, it is not only sires that we must be objective about. Some previously high donor females may also drop. However, there will also be animals that go up in their rank position in their breed.

Even though our first reaction may be to say that the new index is wrong, we must remember that the researchers have worked hard to bring the industry more accurate information so dairy breeders can continue to move their herds forward genetically — as rapidly as possible! Making it possible to keep up with the Joneses!!

 

 

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How stable are genomic proofs?

With over five years of genomics under our belts, it now seems like “old news.” Our tendency to question the relevance and accuracy has now diminished. Instead, we use genomic-proven bulls with great confidence as part of a balanced breeding program.
However, if you’re still uncertain of the stability on specific traits or looking for comparisons on genomic-proven versus daughter-proven options, read more for the answers you’re looking for.

Past Selection Decisions

Tables 1 and 2 show the top ten daughter-proven and top ten genomic-proven bulls available in August 2010 based on TPI. They are listed here with today’s TPI values. Based on these tables, you can clearly see that the August 2010 genomic sires are a superior group.

Comparison between daughter-proven and genomic-proven bulls in August 2010

Those who chose to use sires from the genomic-proven list in 2010 now have numerous milking daughters of these exciting, high-profile sires that are finishing their first or starting their second lactations. These herds are genetically ahead of those who chose to use daughter-proven bulls back in 2010.

More data means more stable 1st crop proofs

The graphs below show the expected change for different traits from a genomic to first crop proof. In total, 3085 bulls were genomic-tested in August 2010 and now have official daughter evaluations. Looking at the TPI graph, we see that of those 3085 bulls, more than 75 had zero change in TPI, and the average change of all bulls was just 71 TPI point decrease.

Meanwhile, only fifteen bulls in the entire breed either gained or lost more than 400 TPI points. This means you can be confident that a genomic bull you use now has only a 0.04% chance (15/3085) of dropping or gaining more than 400 TPI points by the time he gets a daughter proof.

Change in TPI from August 2010 Genomic proofs to August 2014 daughter proofs

Click any of the following graphs to see a larger version:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current versus Historic GTPI

The graph to the right shows the trend of current TPI versus GTPI values from August 2010. The change from a genomic to 1st crop proof is now more stable than what we saw in the first years of genomics. This proves that the extra 35 daughter equivalents from genomics add significant proof stability. It is still important to note that many of the bulls that dropped more than expected in TPI from their genomic to 1st crop proofs tended to be among the highest-ranked genomic bulls.

This change certainly proves that using a group of genomic sires with pedigree diversity to match a farm’s customized genetic criteria is the best way to limit risks. Rather than focus on the single highest sire, create a customized genetic plan and utilize a group of sires that meet an individual herd’s genetic goals. The reliability gained from using a package of bulls provides the confidence and reassurance that genetic progress is being made in the right direction.

Graph to show the current GTPI of sires as compared to their GTPI in August 2010

Today’s Selection Decisions

Just as in August 2010, selection options today are much the same. You could use the best daughter-proven sires or Alta’s best genomic bulls (Tables 3 and 4). While the bulls on the proven list (Table 3) get a lot of publicity and have made some great daughters, the genetic predictions of the genomic group (Table 4) certainly exceed those of the daughter-proven group.

Using genomic-proven sires as part of a customized genetic plan will certainly maximize genetic progress within a herd. Limit risk by increasing the number of different sires used and by ensuring there is pedigree diversity within the group.

Comparison between top daughter-proven and top genomic-proven sires in August 2014

Keep this in mind…

There are a couple things to consider when seeing that the average bull dropped about 70 TPI points from his genomic prediction in 2010 to his daughter proof in August 2014:

  1. The ranking stayed relatively consistent among sires, and the genomic sires still clearly outpaced daughter-proven sires.
  2. The highest ranking bulls tend to have the largest decrease in TPI. The top 100 GTPI sires from August 2010 dropped an average of 200 TPI points from their genomic proof to their daughter proof, compared to the average of all bulls dropping just 70 TPI points.
  3. There have been numerous improvements to the genomic model since 2010 that continue to adjust for any over-prediction in genomic proofs.
    • A large portion of the average TPI change is due to the previous overestimation for Productive Life. An adjustment for PL at the end of 2012 dropped the PL figure for all genomic-proven sires to account for the previous over inflation. The change shown in the PL histogram below is mostly accounted for within that model adjustment. While it’s not ideal to see bulls go down, the PL model change affected all bulls the same, and sire rankings stayed nearly constant.
    • As the graphs below also show, the average combined fat and protein (CFP) only changed by about 5 pounds from genomic proofs in August 2010 to daughter proofs in August 2014! That means those who chose to use genomic proven sires originally, are certainly realizing the benefits of the components for which they selected.
  4. The model changes along the way force us to use caution as we compare current genomic proofs to future daughter proofs.

 

Analysis for this information done by Gerbrand Van Burgsteden. Email Gerbrand by clicking HERE.

To download a PDF of this information, please Click HERE.

Source: AltaGenetics

December 2014 U.S. dairy cattle evaluations include new index, base change

The Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) announced several significant changes for the Dec. 2, 2014 U.S. dairy cattle genetic evaluations. First, two additional fertility traits will be incorporated into lifetime merit indexes. Rather than using daughter pregnancy rate (DPR), the indexes will include heifer conception rate (HCR) and cow conception rate (CCR). CDCB Chief Executive Officer João Dürr explains that incorporating the new fertility traits should be a more direct use of age at first calving and decreased costs to obtain pregnancies, including reduced semen needs. The revised net merit index places more relative emphasis on milk component traits, compared to previous evaluations. Combined fat and protein yield will now receive 42%, compared to the previous 35%. Less emphasis will be given to somatic cell score, body size and productive life.

A new index – grazing merit (GM$) – will be added to the December 2014 genetic evaluations. GM$ is geared toward herds on pasture systems, with those breeders often demanding higher fertility, compared to conventional systems, due to seasonal calving requirements. CDCB will continue to publish the traditional indexes – net merit (NM$), cheese merit (CM$) and fluid merit (FM$).

In addition to the index updates, the December 2014 genetic evaluations incorporate a base change, which typically occurs about every five years. According to CDCB staff, the updated genetic base is simply an adjustment to the Predicted Transmitting Abilities (PTA) of all animals to compensate for the genetic change that has been made over the past five years and adjusting the base keeps PTAs from becoming extreme over time. Without the adjustment, users could lose sight that some genetics would not provide them the improvements they expect. Average PTAs in each breed for sire-identified cows born in 2010 will be set to zero, except for calving ease and stillbirth rate. Calving ease will be set at the breed average and somatic cell score will be set at 3.0.

Preliminary genomic predictions will now be calculated weekly, rather than just publishing official monthly evaluations. The weekly genomic predictions only include new genotyped animals and estimates of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects from the previous official evaluation. Also, reliabilities and genomic inbreeding will not be included in the preliminary genomic predictions. Earlier access to genomic evaluations benefits producers by enabling earlier culling decisions, and for genotyping laboratories, this fosters more uniform workloads.

More comprehensive descriptions of the merit indexes, preliminary genomic predictions and base change are available at https://www.cdcb.us/News/News.htm.

CDCB conducts genetic evaluations for economically important traits of dairy cattle. The CDCB allied partners cooperator database is the largest in the world, which is devoted to dairy animals, with more than 120 million female phenotypic records and more than 480,000 males receiving genetic evaluations or genomic predictions.

Genetic Diversity & Inbreeding: Before & After Genomics

Genomics has sped up genetic progress, but has it impacted inbreeding? Did genomics allow for a larger pool of bulls available for selection? We answer these questions in our current extension article.
The information presented in Table 1 reveals bull numbers pre- and post-genomics on a global scale and in North America. In addition, it shows the number of bulls pre-screened with genotyping and the number of those that went on to enter A.I.

table1[1]

  • Number of young bulls: Before genomics, over 5,000 young bulls were sampled worldwide annually, of which over 1,600 were in North America. With genomics, well over 10,000 North American young bulls are being pre-screened with genotyping each year – a testament to the effort A.I. organizations are making to source new bloodlines. Of those pre-screened, approximately 1,300 will go on to enter A.I. annually.
  • Number of sires of young bulls: Pre-genomics, sires of sons were predominately high- profile proven bulls. Post-genomics, the 1,300 bulls entering A.I. annually are the sons of 48% more sires (155 vs. 105) than the bulls entering A.I. before genomics. This is due to a shift towards young, unproven genomic bulls as sires of sons. In this regard, genomic technology is broadening the portfolio of bulls offered to farmers.
  • Number of most popular sires representing 50% of young bulls: While the number of sires of sons has increased since genomics, the number of bulls siring 50% of the young bulls entering A.I. remains constant. This shows that while A.I. is trying to find new bloodlines, it’s not translating into a greater number of bulls siring the majority of young bulls being offered. In 2011, 9 bulls sired 50% of the 1,300 young bulls that entered A.I. in North America and 18 bulls sired 50% of the 3,000 that entered A.I. globally. These bulls are listed in Table 2.
  • Average number of sons per sire: Post-genomics, the average number of sons entering A.I. per sire has decreased significantly in North America from 15 to 9. With shorter generation intervals, the turnover of top bulls is faster than before meaning sires of sons aren’t being used as long as they were previously.

Overall, genomics has allowed A.I. organizations to sample fewer bulls of greater genetic merit. The technology has diversified the portfolio of bulls available, yet the number of bulls siring 50% of sons remains largely unchanged.
Table2[1]

Inbreeding after Genomics

Despite the fact that genomics has diversified bulls available, the arrival of the technology coincides with the highest average inbreeding levels among young bulls entering A.I. seen in the past 15 years (Figure 1). Most noteworthy is the rate experienced from 2011 to 2012, which hovers at 1% increase that year alone. Depending on how these young bulls are used in the breed, this increasing trend may also translate to average increases in the heifer population going forward.

On one hand inbreeding is associated with an increased frequency of desirable genes in a population as a result of selection. On the other, it is related with lower than expected performance, especially for economically important traits. At what extent does inbreeding hurt more than help the breed? This question still warrants more research. Of particular concern is the fact that with genomics a shorter generation interval may not allow enough time for natural selection to counter balance the negative effects of inbreeding.

Figure1GenomicsInbreeding[1]

Controlling Inbreeding

On a breed level, CDN is exploring crediting outcross genomic young bulls in the LPI formula to promote the exposure and usage of bulls with superior genetics that are less related to the population. While geneticists study ways to control inbreeding on a breed basis, producers should focus on controlling inbreeding in their own herds. For individual matings, CDN’s Inbreeding Calculator (http://www.cdn.ca/inbreeding/selectlist.php) can be used to confirm inbreeding and genetic potential of possible mates. In addition, A.I. mating programs can also be useful tools to monitor and maintain inbreeding at a level the producer has decided is acceptable to them.

While genomics provides an array of benefits, one of the technology’s current drawbacks is increased average level of inbreeding. Nevertheless, we wouldn’t trade today’s more productive and more inbred cow with her less productive and less inbred ancestors. Maximizing genetic gain while controlling inbreeding levels will remain a high priority goal of the dairy cattle breeding industry.

Authors: Lynsay Beavers, Industry Liaison Coordinator, CDN
Brian Van Doormaal, General Manager, CDN
Filippo Miglior, Chief of Research and Strategic Development, CDN

Steps to Reduce Bias in Genetic and Genomic Evaluations

Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) has been providing official genomic evaluations since 2009, which have become a very important tool for genetic selection decisions in Canada. A recent analysis carried out by CDN shows that genomic young bulls represented nearly 57% of the A.I. market share in the first half of 2014 while progeny proven sires took up the remaining 43%. As is the case with young bulls worldwide, genomic evaluations for young bulls have historically experienced some degree of overestimation. CDN is committed to providing the most accurate genomic evaluations possible and its geneticists have been actively developing methods to remove sources of bias in traditional genetic evaluations that lead to overestimation of genomics so producers can continue to have confidence in the Canadian genetic evaluation system. Recent changes that have now been officially implemented to reduce bias are described in this article.

Non-Random Usage of Highly Ranked Genomic Young Bulls

An increasing trend in the marketplace is that the first availability of semen from highly ranked genomic young bulls is reserved for special matings to elite females and/or sold at very high prices. Following a given time period, additional semen becomes more broadly available at a cost more common to elite genomic young bulls. Given the lower levels of semen production for very young genomic bulls compared to older bulls, this strategy makes some sense and is advantageous from a genetic improvement and marketing perspective. From a genetic evaluation viewpoint, however, it can easily lead to bias in the subsequent progeny proof of
those sires. The non-random usage of a sire, both in terms of the genetic quality of the cows bred and the management level of the herds, needs to be accurately considered in the genetic evaluation system. In addition, the offspring resulting from such matings are generally very well cared for since they represent such a large investment. Again, this makes perfect sense in terms of herd management. However, from a genetic evaluation standpoint this creates a major challenge since the first group of each sire’s daughters in lactation and type classified would not be a representative group with equal management compared to other heifers in the calf pen or after calving.

To address non-random treatment given to the first daughters resulting when highly ranked genomic young bulls have limited semen access due to availability and/or high price, CDN geneticists sought to find a measure that indicates which bulls may be affected. Through their research, they discovered that the best indicator was the percentage of milk recorded daughters resulting from embryo transfer (%ET) in a bull’s progeny proof.

When geneticists analyzed the impact of the %ET daughters on bull proofs, there was no impact found for bulls that had less than 30% of their daughters from ET. For sire’s with more than 30% ET daughters, CDN introduced an adjustment in April 2014 to reduce the expected overestimation of traditional progeny proofs prior to the addition of genomics. Specifically, for every 1% increase in ET daughters, the sire’s traditional proof is reduced by 5.5 kg for Milk, 0.38 kg for Fat, 0.18 kg for Protein and 0.05 points for each of Conformation, Mammary System, Feet and Legs, Dairy Strength and Rump. Together, this accumulates to an adjustment of approximately 5 LPI points for each percentage ET daughters higher than 30%, as shown in Figure 1. The adjustment will typically be highest for the bull’s first proof since the percentage ET will also be highest among his first calving daughters and it will generally reduce over time as more daughters calve and contribute to the sire’s proof. As shown in Figure 1, the maximum possible adjustment, for a sire with 100% ET daughters, is a total of -359 LPI points. Although relatively few bulls are currently affected by this new adjustment, it is expected to happen more often in the years to come as elite genomic young bulls become progeny proven. This adjustment to traditional progeny proofs serves to improve the input for calculating genomic evaluations, especially of the sons and daughters of the affected sires.

Reducing Bias in GE Article - August 2014-1

Improving the Accuracy of Cow Evaluations

Geneticists also researched methods to reduce bias in cow evaluations in an effort to improve their accuracy, as well as the accuracy of the Parent Averages of their sons and daughters.  Preferential treatment of cows can lead to cow evaluations being far higher than what would be expect based on the animal’s pedigree index, which is simply defined as the sire stack of the maternal line (1/2 Sire + 1/4 MGS +1/8 Great MGS, etc).

The difference between cow evaluations and their pedigree index is expected to follow a “normal”, bell-curve distribution. In reality, CDN geneticists found the presence of some cows that were significant outliers based on the expected distribution. As of August 2014, an adjustment was implemented to ensure the expected bell-curve distribution in the Holstein, Ayrshire, Jersey and Brown Swiss breeds. This methodology was used for the production and type traits as well as somatic cell score, which ultimately gets reflected in the LPI for each cow. Figure 2 shows the impact of this adjustment in Holsteins depending on their LPI before  including any genomic information. As can be seen, there are several cows with an LPI over 2000 that receive an adjustment ranging between -200 and -450 points. These cows most likely received a degree of preferential treatment and therefore received a traditional genetic evaluation for various traits that was too high compared to their pedigree index. Although to a lesser degree, some cows below 1200 LPI also received an adjustment over 200 LPI points but in an upward direction.

Reducing Bias in GE Article - August 2014-2

In practise, after the traditional cow evaluations are adjusted for this bias, they are combined with the Direct Genomic Value (DGV) for genotyped cows, which are already unbiased estimates of the cow’s genetic merit that is independent of any possible preferential treatment. For this reason, the impact of this new adjustment on published cow evaluations differs for genotyped versus non-genotyped cows. Figure 3 shows the change in published LPI (or GLPI) from April to August 2014 for non-genotyped (versus genotyped) Holsteins that were at least 3000 LPI/GLPI in April. As seen in the graph, a handful of non-genotyped cows experienced a decrease that exceeded 200 LPI points but the majority of cows were impacted by ±150 LPI points.

Reducing Bias in GE Article - August 2014-3

Summary

Two new adjustments for bias have now been implemented by CDN, resulting in more accurate genetic and genomic evaluations for Canadian dairy producers. For bulls, an adjustment based on the percentage of daughters resulting from embryo transfer targets sires that were not randomly used in Canada and the expected preferential treatment of their daughters. Improving the accuracy of progeny proofs for these bulls has an important impact on reducing bias in genomic evaluations of their sons and daughters. For cows, the new methodology reduces the impact of preferential treatment on their resulting genetic evaluations, which also improves the accuracy of Parent Averages of their sons and daughters.

Authors: Lynsay Beavers and Brian Van Doormaal
Date: August 2014

Inbreeding Among Canadian Dairy Breeds

Each year, based on official animal registration and pedigree information within its database, Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) computes current statistics related to the level of inbreeding within the Canadian cow population of each dairy breed.

In this way, the average level of inbreeding for animals born in the most recent complete calendar year as well as trends in the level of inbreeding over time can easily be monitored. The following table is based on animals born since 1970 up to and including registered animals born in 2013.

Current Inbreeding Level and Change in Average Inbreeding by Breed

Breed

Average % Inbreeding for 2013

Average Annual Increase in Average Inbreeding Percentage by Time Period

1970- 1980

1980- 1990

1990- 2000

2000- 2010

2010- 2013

Ayrshire

6.11

.25

.19

.10

-.02

.17

Brown Swiss

6.76

.02

.23

.13

.14

.14

Canadienne

8.75

.08

.28

.18

.21

.17

Guernsey

7.36

.05

.10

.21

.16

.19

Holstein

6.56

.12

.07

.27

.07

.21

Jersey

6.00

.14

.05

.16

.06

.04

Milking Shorthorn

2.60

.03

.00

.26

-.10

.09

Among the four major dairy breeds in Canada, all have an average inbreeding level between 6.00% (Jersey) and 6.76% (Brown Swiss) for heifers born in 2013. The Ayrshire breed has well controlled the rate of increase in inbreeding from 2000 to 2010 with an average change of -.02 percentage points per year. In this regard, Jersey and Holstein are also doing reasonably well at +.06% and +.07% per year, respectively. More recently, however, the Jersey trend has been quite stable whereas all other breeds are experiencing a steady increase for animals born since 2010. Among the breeds with the smallest populations in Canada, Canadienne continues to have the highest average inbreeding, now at 8.75% for females born in 2013. Guernsey heifers born in 2013 average 7.36% inbreeding and the average rate of increase during the past few years has also been relatively high at +.19% per year. For Milking Shorthorn, heifers born in 2013 average 2.60% inbreeding based on available pedigree data for the breed but the rate of increase has been slowly on the rise over the past two years.

Below is a graph showing the inbreeding trend for animals of the four largest dairy breeds born in Canada since 1970 as well as a specific graph for the Holstein population alone. For further information, please feel free to contact Canadian Dairy Network (CDN).

inbreedingincdnhols[1]

inbreeding-in-cdn-dairy[1]

Source: CDN

Average Gain in LPI Reliability Due to Genomics

The Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) has released a breakdown on the Average Gain in LPI Reliability due to Genomics after the 2014 August Proof Run.

Sub-Group for Holstein Breed

Average LPI Reliability (%)

Traditional

Genomics

Gain

DGV Weight

≥50K Young Bulls and Heifers with a Proven Sire

40

73

33

65%

≥50K Young Bulls and Heifers with a GPA LPI Sire (GYS)

36

67

31

65%

Heifers with LD Genotype (Born 2012-2014)

34

68

34

67%

Younger Cows in 1st or 2nd Lactation with LD Genotype

51

72

21

59%

LD Foreign Cows with MACE in Canada

41

71

30

63%

1st Crop Progeny Proven Sires

in Canada

86

91

5

51%

Foreign Sires with MACE in Canada

69

83

14

55%

Sub-Group for Jersey Breed

Average LPI Reliability (%)

Traditional

Genomics

Gain

DGV Weight

≥50K Young Bulls and Heifers

with a Proven Sire

35

54

19

61%

Heifers with LD Genotype (Born 2012-2014)

28

47

19

63%

Younger Cows in 1st or 2nd Lactation with LD Genotype

51

56

5

52%

Foreign Cows with MACE in Canada

39

56

17

59%

1st Crop Proven Sires

in Canada

78

83

5

52%

Foreign Sires with MACE in Canada

70

77

7

52%

Sub-Group for Brown Swiss Breed

Average LPI Reliability (%)

Traditional

Genomics

Gain

DGV Weight

≥50K Young Bulls and Heifers with a Proven Sire

31

53

22

63%

Heifers with LD Genotype (Born 2012-2014)

29

51

22

64%

Younger Cows in 1st or 2nd Lactation with LD Genotype

44

56

12

56%

Foreign Cows with MACE in Canada

39

57

18

59%

1st Crop Proven Sires in Canada

67

76

9

53%

Foreign Sires with MACE in Canada

62

72

10

54%

Sub-Group for Ayrshire Breed

Average LPI Reliability (%)

Traditional

Genomics

Gain

DGV Weight

≥50K Young Bulls and Heifers with a Proven Sire

36

38

2

51%

Heifers with LD Genotype (Born 2012-2014)

29

33

4

53%

Younger Cows in 1st or 2nd Lactation with LD Genotype

46

47

1

51%

1st Crop Proven Sires in Canada

78

79

1

50%

Foreign Sires with MACE in Canada

65

68

3

51%

Source: CDN

Why ALL Dairy Farmers Should Get Excited About Proof Day!

For the 1% of breeders who deal in seed stock Proof Days are like Christmas 3x times a year.  But for the remaining 99% of dairy breeders proof days, the days when the latest Genetic Evaluations are released, are not that big a deal.  But they should be.

The following are three reasons all dairy producers should be checking out the latest genetic evaluations.

All producers should be using the best genetics possible

Analysis conducted as a cooperative effort between Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) and the milk-recording agency in Québec, Valacta, examined the association between the average profit per cow at the herd level and the genetic potential of the herd for various traits.

dairyprofit

Figure 1 shows the relationship between the average LPI and the average profit per cow per day in each herd studied. While there are some exceptions to the rule, the dark line in the graph reflects the average relationship across the LPI scale, which indicates that herds with higher average LPI levels of their cows also have higher profit values. This positive correlation between LPI and profit clearly shows that genetics is a significant contributing factor but that management also plays a major role. On average, for every 100-point difference in LPI at the herd level there is an increase in profit per cow per year of $50, which accumulates from year to year. From a sire selection perspective, this equivalence translates to a difference of $50 more profit per daughter per year for every 200-point difference in the sire’s LPI value.  Based on a 50% conception rate, that would indicate that the semen from a sire who is 400 LPI points higher than the average sire, should cost $50 more.  Applying this to the current sires available, by using a sire such as AltaRazor who has an LPI of +3038 you will generate and extra $187.50 compared to a sire with an LPI of 1500.  This is from direct daughter profitably and does not even factor in the increased performance of any progeny this cow would produce.  So then investing $50 to $100 more for semen that will deliver over $180 in return is certainly a profitable decision even for commercial milk producers.

The Grass Is Always Greener on the Other Side of the Fence

I often hear many producers quote the minimum levels for certain traits that they are willing to use.  The challenge with that is while this approach is great for setting basic criteria, it fails to look at how these sires compare to other sires.  By using “any” sire that meets their criteria they are missing out on maximizing the genetics gain, and therefore the profitability of their herd.  As demonstrated above setting a minimum threshold, instead of going for maximum return, is leaving dollars on the table, and not in the milk check.  Then there is the case where some milk producers prefer to deal with only one semen sales representative or A.I. company.  No A.I. company has all the best sires (Read more: Stud Wars: Episode II – April 2014), so by employing this practices any savings or efficiencies you gain from negations, are negated by the amount you are costing yourself in loss of genetic potential.  (Read more: Rumors, Lies, and other stuff Salesmen will tell you and Are There Too Many Semen Salesmen Coming In The Lane?)

Are You Sure You Are Getting What You Pay For?

With the latest reports indicating that genomic young sire use is approaching 60% in North America, many producers have embraced genomics in a significant way (Read more: Why 84% of Dairy Breeders Will Soon Be Using Genomic Sires!).  I have even come across herds that have gone to 100% genomic young sire use.  With such a heavy usage of sires that are 60-70% reliable, are you sure that the sires that you are using are delivering on the other end?  A great way to check this is to see how the sires you are investing in, are doing when they receive their official daughter proof.  Sure that may not mean that you go back and use these sires once they are proven, but it does help you get a better understanding of the reliability of the genetics that you have invested in.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

I am not saying that all dairy producers should be waiting with baited breath at 8 am on proof day.  However, there is certainly value in taking the time to check out the latest sire evaluations, to see how the sires you have been using are performing and what other sires are out there that could help you increase the profitability of your herd.  No matter what your management style, there are certainly enough reasons for you to get excited on proof day.

Check out the latest Holstein Sires Proofs in our Genetics Section


The Dairy Breeders No BS Guide to Genomics

 

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The New Net Merit Formula – The Winners & The Losers

For over twenty years USDA-AIPL and now CDCB have been publishing Net Merit (NM$) values for dairy cattle with US genetic evaluations.  Over those twenty years five revisions have been made to the formula, the last in 2010, as new traits have been added, new genetic evaluation methodologies have been developed, and the economics of dairy farming has changed. The next change in the formula will occur in December 2014.

It is important that breeders consider the impact of the coming changes as they review the sire, cow and heifer NM$ indexes on August 12th.  Breeder consideration is needed because the matings that are made this fall will have offspring born in 2015 when the new formula will be in place. Obviously the changes in the formula will not affect how the new future animals will perform but it will, however, affect where the animal ranks for marketing purposes and where a herd’s genetic level for NM$ is relative to other herds.

Let’s dig deeper and see what changes are to take place and how that may affect current breed leading NM$ sires.

Significant Changes Coming In December

The following table compares the weightings, 2010 to 2014 (December), for the components of the NM$ formula.

TABLE 1: Comparison of Relative Emphasis for Traits in NM$ Index

NameLbs. MilkPLSCSCENM$PTATUDCF&L CTPI
DE-SU OBSERVER-ET16027.22.7667922.73.020.892332
HONEYCREST BOMBAY NIFTY-ET2367.22.627553-0.46-0.130.971810
POTTERS-FIELD KP LOOT-ET10047.22.6876500.081.71-0.241954
KELLERCREST BRET LANDSCAPE817.12.3685060.651.271.161838
WHITMAN O MAN AWESOME ANDY2026.92.5557540.32-0.171.212063
ZIMMERVIEW BRITT VARSITY-ET4106.82.6266680.71-0.471.552013
CLEAR-ECHO NIFTY TWIST-ET9426.82.628748-0.32-0.421.172039
KED OUTSIDE JEEVES-ET3556.82.83105151.370.971.741913
ENSENADA TABOO PLANET-ET22166.72.9867211.931.44-0.472176
GOLDEN-OAKS GUTHRIE-ET10786.72.786535-1.15-1.240.361728
DALE-PRIDE MANFRED ALFIE5196.62.966461-0.63-0.36-0.011702
LAESCHWAY JET BOWSER 2-ETN2006.52.8474551.622.031.831940
ELKENDALE DIE-CAST-ET-8726.52.7263700.681.851.991718
LAESCHWAY JET BOWSER-ET2006.52.8474551.622.031.831940
BADGER-BLUFF FANNY FREDDIE12366.42.757791.571.62.872292
CABHI AUSTIN POTTER-ET1516.42.8165200.050.410.021766
CABHI MOOSE-ET456.42.6463730.180.31.111625
SILDAHL JETT AIR-ET11186.32.6466442.882.262.912168
SPRING-RUN CAMDEN-676.22.9174330.571.790.61762
KERNDT MAXIE GOLDSTAR-ET1996.22.576449-1.28-0.61-0.961631
 

Thoughts on the changes include:

3 Proven Sires Favored by New Formula

Three currently (April 2014) high NM$ proven sires will gain from the new formula. They are: Roylane Socra Robust; Den-K AltaGreatest; and Mainstream Manifold. They are all high production sires, and the new formula will favour them. All three, Robust, AltaGreatest and Manifold will also benefit from less emphasis on their average traits – SCS and DPR.

Breeders can expect to see sires that have production indexes below 1500 lbs for milk and 65 lbs for fat drop relative to other sires for NM$. Sires over 2200lbs milk, 80 lbs fat and 55 lbs for protein will rank higher for NM$ come December 2014. Breeders that use NM$ in sire selection should consider discontinue using, after August 12th, sires with low production indexes.

2 Genomic Sires Going Up!

Two currently (April 2014) high NM$ genomic sires will be rated higher with the new formula. They are: Cogent Supershot; and Uecker Supersire Josuper. They are outstanding for production. Supershot – 2528 lbs milk, 100 lbs fat and 85 lbs protein. Josuper – 2971 lbs milk, 118 lbs fat and 92 lbs protein. Supershot has good ratings for the other traits so will remain to standout for NM$. Josuper will benefit from less emphasis on traits where he is breed average.

Many current relatively high ranked NMS genomic sires will fall back if they have only moderate milk indexes.  Breeders should consider discontinuing the use of genomically evaluated sires below 1600 lbs milk, 85 lbs fat and 60 lbs protein.

The Effect on Polled Sires

Current marketed polled proven sires are not highly rated for production, so will not fair well with the new NM$ formula. On the genomic sire side, two high production sires standout as sires that should increase in their relative NM$. They are Bryhill Socrates P (1914 milk 99 fat and 65 protein) and Pine-Tree Ohio Style P (2033 milk, 64 fat and 57 protein). Other sires that will do relatively well under the new NM$ formula are Kerndtway Eraser P, Da-So-Burn MOM Earnhardt P and Pine-Tree Ohare P.  Many polled sires have below 1000 lbs of milk and can be expected to drop significantly in NM$ come December.

1 Star Sires of Sons

One sire of sons stands out as benefiting, in a significant way, from the new NM$ formula. That sire is Seagull Bay Supersire. His high production numbers put him in an elite status – 2434 lbs milk, 111 lbs fat and 78 lbs protein. The reduced emphasis on SCS and DPR, in the new formula, will also help Supersire, as he is average for those traits.

Other genomically evaluated sires of sons, heavily used over the past couple of years, often have been only moderately high for production traits. Included in this category are sires such as Mountfield SSI Dcy Mogul, De-Su BKM Mccutchen and Amighetti Numero Uno. These sires do have some outlier high production rated sons but, on average, the majority of their sons will drop for NM$ come December.

Be Prepared to Avoid Inbreeding

With both Robust (sire) and Supersire (son) in heavy use and both benefiting from the new NM$ formula, it will require that top outcross sire and female lines be identified and used in order to avoid inbreeding. That can be accomplished by breeders using both corrective mating and genomic testing.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

The changes coming for the NM$ formula in December 2014 are not just minor tweaks. Breeders that use the NM$ index in sire selection should be prepared to set aside sires that in the past have had high NM$ ratings but were only average to slightly above average for their production indexes.


The Dairy Breeders No BS Guide to Genomics

 

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The Truth About Low Heritability Traits

“I just manage for those things”, or “It takes too long to improve those traits,” or “Selecting for those traits won’t lead to any real difference in my herd”. Have any of these thoughts crossed your mind when considering low heritability traits? We often encounter comments such as these and would like to set the record straight – selection for low heritability traits does make a difference in female performance and will affect your bottom line.

Heritability – The Highs and Lows

Low Heritability Traits Article - July 2014-1Simply put, heritability is the amount of total variation for a trait in a population that can be attributed to genetics. For example, the heritability of protein yield is high at 40%. Imagine two cows in two different herds that each have a different protein yield. Around 40% of the difference in their protein yields can be explained by genetics and the other 60% of the difference is due to herd management and environment. Protein yield is a win-win trait – it is of high economic importance and also has a moderately high heritability.

Similar to protein yield, traits associated with health, fertility and longevity are of great economic importance. However, unlike yield traits, these traits are lowly heritable because they are complex, making them difficult to define, record and evaluate. Traits with a heritability below 15% (Table 1) are, therefore, strongly influenced by environmental effects and require attention in terms of herd management in order to reach optimal levels.
Take Daughter Fertility, for instance, which has a heritability of 7%. On average, 93% of all factors influencing a given cow’s reproductive performance are non-genetic. Since environment and herd management are so impactful when it comes to Daughter Fertility, does this mean it should only be managed for and ignored genetically? Absolutely not! While heritability tells us how closely genetic merit follows phenotypic performance, it tells us nothing about the economic value of better performance.

Selection for Low Heritability Traits Makes a Difference

To show that selection for low heritability traits can result in improvement, Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) examined the performance of daughters of the five highest and lowest sires for Daughter Fertility and Herd Life that had over 1000 daughters in their proofs. It’s important to note that these aren’t sires that just happened to be good for the traits we’re interested in, these are progeny proven sires that were returned to active service, most likely based on their LPI, and became popular for various reasons and heavily used in Canada.

Table 1 shows the average daughter performance for sires that excel or are poor for Herd Life based on actual survival data for at least 1000 daughters. The top five sires averaged 109 for Herd Life, while the bottom five sires averaged 93 (breed average is 100). Daughters of the top five sires for Herd Life had a greater average number of calvings, a longer productive life, and had higher survival rates to later lactations compared to daughters of the bottom five sires. This is especially evident when looking at the survival rates to 3rd and 4th calving, where sires that excel for Herd Life had approximately 20% more daughters still alive to start their 3rd and 4th lactation relative to sires that were poor for Herd Life. For a producer, this translates into more profitability and the option to have fewer herd replacements.

Table 1: Average Daughter Performance for the Top 5 and Bottom 5 Sires for Herd Life with Greater than 1000 Daughters

Low Heritability Traits Article - July 2014-2

Table 2 shows the average daughter performance for sires that are high end or inferior for Daughter Fertility based on actual reproductive data for at least 1000 daughters. The top 5 sires had a proof that averaged 19 points higher for Daughter Fertility than the bottom 5 sires. Milking daughters of top sires required 13% fewer inseminations per conception and averaged 10 fewer days open. Research suggests the cost of each extra day open is approximately $4. Based on this estimate, the genetic disadvantages alone of a daughter of a bottom end sire for Daughter Fertility translates to an opportunity cost of $40 per female.

Table 2: Average Daughter Performance for the Top 5 and Bottom 5 Sires for Daughter Fertility with Greater than 1000 Daughters

Low Heritability Traits Article - July 2014-2-2

Daughters of the sires in the two examples above are found across Canada, in a wide variety of management systems and environments. The performance differences seen between the top and bottom groups can be attributed exclusively to genetics. Despite the low heritability of Herd Life and Daughter Fertility, using sires that excelled (or were poor) for these traits resulted in notable differences in daughter performance. These examples prove that low heritability traits can make a difference. Genetic evaluations for this category of traits help to identify the extreme sires on each end of the spectrum. When it comes to determining which traits are included in your breeding goals, turn to economic importance before heritability – your bottom line will thank you for it.

Authors: Lynsay Beavers and Brian Van Doormaal, Canadian Dairy Network
Date: July 2014

SCC vs Mastitis Resistance – Which one fits your breeding goals?

Dairy farmers want to avoid mastitis. It’s expensive – antibiotics, lost milk, extra staff time and lost genetics. Furthermore every dairy operations targets to have the food safety and milk product quality that consumers want and deserve. When SCC testing through DHI and subsequently SCC sire proofs became available significant improvement tools were available to dairy cattle breeders. Breeders knew from experience that some cows and cows families were more prone to getting mastitis. Although somatic cell information was a great first step, it wasn’t the total answer. Breeders questioned if SCC could be too low and if very low SCC cows actually have less ability to fight off infectious agents that cause mastitis. So breeders asked the researchers to investigate further.

Canadian Stats Lead to First Mastitis Resistance Ratings

At CDN, breeders and researchers put their heads together in 2007 and decided to ask breeders to report on eight cow health events (Read more: Is Animal Health Important to You?) to get the necessary field information on incidences. For more than five years, 40% of Canadian milk recorded herds have been reporting if a cow has had mastitis and any of the other seven health diseases since her last test day. That information plus her somatic cell scores and genomic profile were combined to develop animal genetic ratings for mastitis resistance that will be released for the first time by CDN (Read more: Mastitis Resistance Selection: Now a Reality!) on August 12, 2014. By using the negative of a mastitis case plus the actual facts on SCC and genomic profile, a new tool will be in the hands of breeders to use in making their selection decisions.

The study of the data collected showed that Mastitis Resistance has a heritability of 12%, similar to the heritability of an important trait like feet and legs and therefore it is possible to improve it genetically. As many discerning breeders suspected, the study showed only a moderate association between a positive genetic rating for SCC and incidence of clinical mastitis in first lactations (44%) and later lactations (58%). SCC genetic indexes are an indication of few mastitis cases but a considerable distance from the accuracy breeders expect.

Mastitis Resistance Sire Proofs

After developing the formula calculating genetic evaluations for mastitis resistance, CDN researchers then compared the results to existing known facts. It was found that Sire Proofs for SCC have a correlation of 80% with Sire Proofs for Mastitis Resistance. That is moderately high but not perfect. And Sire Proofs for Mastitis Resistance were strongly associated with incidence of mastitis in first lactations (85%) and later lactations (90%). Note that the associations for first and later lactations are closer for Mastitis Resistance than they are for SCC.

When CDN publishes the genetic indexes in August, the scale will be 100 for average with a standard deviation of +/- 5. The following table produced by CDN is very interesting.

Source: Mastitis Resistance Selection: Now a Reality! CDN July 2014

Source: Mastitis Resistance Selection:
Now a Reality! CDN July 2014

This table provides for breeders some information details for both clinical mastitis (actual mastitis cases) and sub-clinical mastitis (SCC).  On a population wide basis breed average bulls (100) for Mastitis Resistance will have 92% healthy daughters with an average SCC of 178,000 in their first lactation.  In later lactations an average bull will have 88% healthy and an SCC of 226,000 in second lactation and 292,000 in third lactation. It should be noted that if a bull is used that only has a 91 rating, breeders can expect his third lactation daughters to average 400,000 SCC. In many countries 400,000 is now, or soon will be, the maximum allowable for milk to be accepted for shipment off-farm. As mentioned the numbers in this table are for an average herd. Individual breeders with less mastitis incidence can expect healthier animals and lower SCC average. However herds, with higher than average mastitis incidence, can expect poorer results.

In August Mastitis Resistance sire proofs will be published by CDN for Ayrshire, Holstein and Jersey breeds. Due to the large number of Holstein bulls with proofs and genomic profiles, CDN will publish genomic evaluations for Mastitis Resistance for the Holstein breed.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

CDN Mastitis Resistance genetic indexes will increase the accuracy of selecting animals for their ability to avoid the significant cost of udder disease. It is the tool that breeders have been asking for. It came about when breeders, researchers and genetic evaluation officials collaborated. Look for bulls or cows that are 105 or higher before considering them to be significant breed improvers.

 

 

 

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Mastitis Resistance Selection: Now a Reality!

Mastitis – Mastitis – it’s a real game changer in terms of profitability at the farm level! It can turn a good cow into a poor one very quickly! In 2013, over 20% of cows removed by involuntary culling from Canadian dairy herds left due to problems with mastitis and/or high somatic cell count. Over the past several decades since somatic cell testing became a routine service offered by milk recording agencies across the country, great progress has been realized. Although herd management is very important for maintaining low levels of somatic cell count, genetic selection should also be used to improve mastitis resistance. Effective August 2014, Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) will publish official genetic evaluations for Mastitis Resistance, which combines both clinical and sub-clinical mastitis into a single genetic selection index.

HealthData

Following a coordinated industry effort involving CDN, milk recording agencies, breed associations, A.I. organizations and various veterinarian groups, a national system for collecting health events was implemented in 2007. Since that time, approximately 40% of all herds enrolled on milk recording are voluntarily recording the incidence of eight key diseases and reporting this data to their milk recording agency (or their DSA veterinarian in Quebec). This accumulation of data has led to the calculation of genetic evaluations for clinical mastitis.

ClinicalMastitisandSomaticCellCount

Somatic cell count (SCC) is a measure of sub-clinical mastitis that is easy to assess by laboratory analysis of each cow’s milk sample on test day. Due to the ease of recording this trait and its relative importance for herd and cow management, milk recording has offered somatic cell testing for decades as part of its portfolio of services. Now, with the additional collection of herd health events related to clinical mastitis, producers will have a tool to select directly for resistance to clinical mastitis as well as sub-clinical mastitis. Table 1 provides correlations among Holstein sire proofs for the various traits related to mastitis that CDN will be evaluating in
the Holstein, Ayrshire and Jersey breeds.

Table1: Correlations Among Sire Proofs Associated with Mastitis
Trait Mastitis Resistance Clinical Mastitis- 1st Lactation Clinical Mastitis – Later Lactations
Clinical Mastitis – 1st Lactation 85%    
Clinical Mastitis -Later Lactations 90% 73%  
Somatic Cell Score -79% -44% -58%
Note:Negative correlations with SCS refer to the desired direction for improvement.

Mastitis Resistance is an overall index that equally combines evaluations for three other traits, namely Clinical Mastitis in first lactation cows, Clinical Mastitis for cows in later lactations and Somatic Cell Score evaluated across the first three lactations. The heritability of Mastitis Resistance is estimated at 12%, indicating that genetic selection is possible. Official sire proofs for Mastitis Resistance have a desirable correlation of 79% with current proofs for Somatic Cell Score as well as correlations of 85% and 90% respectively, for clinical mastitis in first versus later lactations. Of particular interest as well is the fact that Somatic Cell Score, as a measure of sub-clinical mastitis, has only a moderate desirable association with clinical mastitis in first and later lactations (44% and 58% respectively).

Figure 1 provides a visual representation of the association between sire proofs for Somatic Cell Score and the new Mastitis Resistance index, expressed as Relative Breeding Values with an average of 100 and 95% of bulls ranging between 115 (best) to 85 (worst). As suggested by the strong desirable correlation of 79%, the plot shows that many bulls already known to be good for low somatic cell counts in their daughters are also good for overall selection of Mastitis Resistance, including clinical mastitis. In fact, of those bulls that were at least one standard deviation better than average for Somatic Cell Score (i.e.: rating of 2.77 or lower), 98% of them are above breed average for Mastitis Resistance. Among those that were simply better than breed average for Somatic Cell Score (i.e.: below 3.00), 78% have a rating higher than the breed average of 100 for Mastitis Resistance. In other words, these bulls were better than average for Somatic Cell Score but below average for Mastitis Resistance. The availability of the new Mastitis Resistance evaluations allows for the improvement of both sub-clinical and clinical mastitis simultaneously.

masr

InterpretationofMastitisResistance

To assist producers in understanding the expected response achievable in their herd when considering sire proofs for Mastitis Resistance, Table 2 provides a “translation” in terms of average daughter performance for both clinical mastitis and somatic cell count throughout the first three lactations.

When used in a typical herd with average herd management, an average bull with a rating of 100 for Mastitis Resistance is expected to produce daughters that will have somatic cell counts averaging 178,000, 226,000 and 292,000 in each of the first three lactations, respectively. In addition, 92% of the daughters in first lactation are not expected to have clinical mastitis and this percentage decreases slightly to 88% for later lactations. Bulls that are better than breed average receive a Mastitis Resistance evaluation higher than 100 and are expected to produce daughters that are less susceptible to having both sub-clinical and clinical mastitis, as shown in
Table 2.

Table 2: Expected Average Daughter Performance Associated with a Sire’s Mastitis Resistance Index
 

Mastitis Resistance (MR) Index

Clinical Mastitis Somatic Cell Count (‘000)
% Healthy in First Lactation % Healthy in Later Lactations First Lactation Average Second Lactation Average Third Lactation Average
115 96% 95% 144 144 195
114 96% 94% 145 148 198
113 95% 94% 145 152 202
112 95% 93% 146 157 206
111 95% 93% 148 162 211
110 95% 93% 149 167 216
109 94% 92% 151 172 221
108 94% 92% 153 177 227
107 94% 91% 155 183 234
106 94% 91% 157 188 241
105 93% 90% 160 194 248
104 93% 90% 163 200 256
103 93% 89% 166 206 264
102 93% 89% 170 213 273
101 92% 88% 174 219 282
100 92%                88% 178                 226                 292
99 92% 88% 182 233 302
98 92% 87% 187 240 313
97 91% 87% 192 247 324
96 91% 86% 197 255 336
95 91% 86% 202 262 348
94 91% 85% 208 270 360
93 90% 85% 214 278 373
92 90% 84% 220 286 387
91 90% 84% 226 294 400
90 89% 84% 233 303 415
89 89% 83% 240 312 430
88 89% 83% 247 320 445
87 89% 82% 255 329 461
86 88% 82% 263 339 477
85 88% 81% 271 348 494

 

Summary

The August 2014 arrival of official genetic evaluations for Mastitis Resistance for the Holstein, Ayrshire and Jersey breeds provides dairy producers with an advanced tool for genetic selection against mastitis, simultaneously for both sub-clinical and clinical. Due to the larger number of progeny proven sires with an official Mastitis Resistance, the Holstein breed will also benefit from the calculation by CDN of genomic evaluations for this important trait. The publication of Mastitis Resistance will not replace the availability of genetic evaluations for Somatic Cell Score but dairy producers should move towards using this new index when making selection decisions to reduce the overall incidence of mastitis in their herd.

Authors: Brian Van Doormaal and Lynsay Beavers
Date: June 2014

Executive Summary from the Interbull Steering Committee

The 2014 Interbull Meeting took place in the Estrel Hotel and Conference Center in Berlin, Germany, from May 19-21, as part of the 2014 ICAR/Interbull Conference. The Interbull Technical Committee (ITC) met earlier on Sunday, May 18, in an effort to properly cover the variety of issues on the agenda. On Monday, May 19, it was time for the Steering Committee to have its first encounter. On the following day the Interbull community gathered for the first Business Meeting, for the Interbull Open sessions on “Genetic evaluation methods” and “National and international genetic evaluations” and finally for the ICAR/Interbull joint technical session on “Parentage verification and parentage discovery. On the last day, two additional Open sessions, “National and international genomic evaluations” and “Breeding objectives and novel traits”, were followed by the second Business meeting and the second Steering Committee meeting, respectively. The Interbull meeting had 196 attendants from 39 countries and 32 scientific reports were presented in the Open sessions in addition to the four invited papers in the ICAR/Interbull joint session on parentage verification/discovery.

The German Cattle Breeders’ Federation (ADR) and the organizing committee did a splendid job planning all possible details and delivering a very pleasant meeting to all attendees and deserve our sincere gratitude. Big thanks go also to all sponsors that acknowledge the value of ICAR and Interbull for animal production worldwide.

A summary of the relevant information and Steering Committee decisions from the meetings in Berlin is presented below.

2013-2014 Interbull Centre activity report

During the first Business meeting the Interbull Centre director, João Dürr, presented the summary of activities at the center since the last annual meeting in Nantes (August 2013), covering personnel, service and operations, research and development, publications and work plans. The Interbull Centre finances and budgets are also included in the activity report and were presented at the same occasion by the Interbull Secretary, Erling Strandberg. The financial situation has improved significantly in comparison with previous years and also in relation to the budgeted results for 2013. Several factors contributed to the improvement, on both the income and the costs sides, resulting in an expected positive accumulated balance of approximately € 200,000, which is a level appropriate for the size of the operation. Finances and budgets were approved by the Steering Committee.

The Interbull Centre activity reports are available at http://www.interbull.org/ib/itbcreports.

Re-election of SC member

Sophie Mattalia’s term as a Steering Committee member ends this year, but she was re-nominated by France Génétique Elevage for a new period of 4 years. Both the Steering Committee and the representatives present at the Business meeting supported her re-nomination, which was sent to the ICAR board for approval.

GMACE official in August 2014

As advertised in the Steering Committee executive summary of February 11th, 2014, (https://wiki.interbull.org/public/2014_2_ExecSum?action=print), the August 2014 GMACE run will be the first GMACE routine run unless major technical impediments happen to occur. Since no major technical concerns referring to neither the February 2014 GMACE test run or the April 2014 GMACE implementation runs were reported or raised by the ITC, the August 2014 will be the first GMACE official routine run offered by Interbull.

Bull controlling country

The Steering Committee established additional rules for the use of the bull controlling country list (File 734):

  1. Each bull should have only one controlling country assigned
    1. When a bull has shared ownership, owners need to agree on which country to assign as the controlling country for the publication status of GMACE evaluations
    2. The Interbull Centre will try to resolve any conflicts by contacting the national genetic evaluation units as data providers and asking for a solution before a specified deadline
    3. If owners do not resolve conflicts, the regular publication policy applies, i.e. if one country reports a bull with an official GEBV, the GMACE evaluation for that bull will be distributed by Interbull for official publication
  2. Bulls that previously held the status “Yes” for GMACE publication cannot be subsequently assigned a “No” status for GMACE publication.
  3. If available, participating countries in GMACE should supply the NAAB stud number of the bull controller to be used as additional criteria to resolve conflicts (details of how this information should be supplied will be communicated by the Interbull Centre in due time).

In order to illustrate how the Interbull publication policy for genomically proven bulls should be interpreted, a decision tree is supplied in Appendix I.

Truncated MACE

The implementation of left truncated MACE runs to supply more adequate validation data for countries that use de-regressed MACE values as input to the national genomic evaluations was postponed to the January 2015 run in order to allow the technical details of the new procedure to be properly explained to and understood by the service users.

GENOEX

A topic that occupied significant time in the meetings was the International Genotype Exchange Platform (GENOEX) proposal, which was the object of discussions in a couple of Interbull sessions and also during other related ICAR working groups. A detailed description of the proposal can be found at Dürr, J., Jorjani, H., Reents, R. 2014. International Genotype Exchange Platform (GENOEX). Proc. ICAR/Interbull Conference, Berlin, Germany, May 19-23, 2014. 10 p. (International Genotype Exchange Platform_paper_Durr_v2.pdf). The services to be provided through the implementation of the GENOEX platform at the Interbull Centre are differentiated into three categories: (1) parentage SNP exchange service (PSE), (2) genomic data exchange service (GDE) and (3) customized genomic repository service (CGR). A step-wise implementation process will be adopted, starting by PSE followed by GDE and CGR. During the discussions it was emphasized that Interbull does not intend to provide parentage verification services and therefore compete with the organizations that currently offer such services in the different countries, but instead facilitate parentage data exchanges among those involved. After considering the inputs received during the meetings, the Steering Committee made the following decisions.

  1. The Steering Committee will request financial support for the project from the ICAR board and the Interbull Centre will, in parallel, seek support from SLU.
  2. Even if the decision on availability of external funds may take a while, the Interbull Centre should go ahead with the first phase of the GENOEX proposal (PSE) immediately, using the positive balance presented in the financial report. This will be possible because the budget for the PSE module is affordable with an estimate of € 40,000.
  3. In order to guarantee that the business rules for the PSE service do not create conflicts with stakeholders which are not currently among the Interbull service users, a Task Force will be created including representatives of the SC (Sophie Mattalia and Brian Van Doormaal) and for the following ICAR groups:
    • Parentage recording working group
    • Genetic analysis working group
    • Breed associations task force

Service calendar

The Steering Committee approved a small adjustment in the service calendar for the April 2015 routine run due to a conflict with the Easter holidays. The deadline for data reception for GMACE (national GEBVs), previously scheduled for 2015/03/25 is now at 2015/03/24 and the GMACE pre-release date, instead of 2015/04/02 is now scheduled for 2015/04/01. These changes, although subtle, are believed to allow both the Interbull Centre and the national units to perform all analyses before the Easter holidays start. The Interbull service calendar is available at http://www.interbull.org/ib/servicecalendar.

Future meetings

At the second Business meeting, future events involving Interbull were presented to the audience including:

  • The 2015 Interbull meeting will precede the 2015 ADSA®-ASAS Joint Annual Meeting,Orlando, Florida, USA, July 9 to 12, 2015.
  • The EAAP/Interbull joint sessions during the 66th EAAP Meeting in Warsaw, Poland, August 31 to September 4, 2015.

  • The 2016 ICAR/Interbull Conference. Puerto Varas, Chile, October 24-28, 2016.

Issues Arising from the Interbull Technical Committee

Post-processing of correlations

The ITC started a review of the correlation post-processing procedures with special attention to two particular cases:

  1. Pairs of countries with poor links (too few common bulls)
  2. Pairs of countries with strong links but estimated correlations outside the pre-established windows

The same working group that has recommended the adoption of post-processing for conformation traits is now reactivated to conduct the proposed review (Raphael Mrode, Esa Mantysaari, Tom Lawlor and Hossein Jorjani). The current methodology applied by Interbull for correlation estimation and post-processing is described at https://wiki.interbull.org/public/rG%20procedure?action=print&rev=17.

Mendelian Sampling trend validation

Service users were requested to run a pilot study to test both the software and the methodology of the Mendelian Sampling trend validation developed in cooperation with MTT and NAV. The feedback received was that the instructions are straightforward and the program is easy to use. A preliminary summary of the results was presented in the Open meeting and now the working group (MTT, NAV, Interbull Centre) will perform more detailed analyses of the pilot data to assess the impact of adopting the procedure as part of the Interbull routine validations.

Genomic reliabilities

The working group formed by Bevin Harris (chair), Vincent Ducrocq, Mario Calus, Paul VanRaden, Zengting Liu and Martin Lidauer presented a promising progress report of testing a “naïve” method of approximating genomic reliabilities based on Harris & Johnson (1998). The next steps for this important project are: complete the data simulation step including pre-selection, address the gap between validation accuracy and estimated reliabilities and use true values from simulated data to verify the validation accuracy.

GEBV test

The original working group (Esa Mäntysaari, Paul VanRaden and Zengting Liu) and Mohammad Nilforooshan will review some aspects of the GEBV validation test: upper limit for cases in which b1 > E(b1), minimum number of test bulls and comparison of EBVs and GEBVs for bulls in different strata of the ranks.

Appendix I

Decision tree to interpret the Interbull publication guidelines for genomically proven bulls.

Schema_GMACE.png

Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding Hires CEO

”João The Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) has hired João Walter Dürr of Uppsala, Sweden, as its chief executive officer. Dürr, who will be relocating to the Beltsville, Md. area, brings a wealth of managerial experience in milk recording, database development and genetic evaluation to CDCB. Since 2008, he has served as the Interbull Centre executive director.

In 1991, Dürr earned a bachelor’s degree in agriculture from Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil; followed by master’s and doctorate degrees from McGill University, Montreal, in animal science, breeding and genetics. From 1997 to 2008, he held various positions with Universidade de Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, including Veterinary School professor, Dairy Herds Analysis Service general manager, Food Science Research Centre director and associate vice principal for research. In addition, he served as president of the Brazilian Milk Quality Council, a national, non-profit organization with a mission of promoting milk quality and mastitis prevention in Brazil, from 2004 to 2007.

As the Interbull executive director, Dürr helped coordinate the organization’s transition from academics to a business-oriented operation, incorporating new services into the portfolio. He also skillfully guided Interbull through the genomic revolution and provided a network for scientific and dairy industry communities to develop the framework of applied cattle genomics. Additionally, Dürr created a dynamic web site to improve communication with service users and the general public, implemented a quality assurance infrastructure to comply with international standards, and helped streamline genetic evaluation operations to handle multi-country pedigrees and estimated breeding values.

“With CDCB in its early stages of coordinating service responsibilities for calculating and distributing genetic evaluations and genomic predictions, providing dairy cattle management and benchmarking tools, managing data storage and analyzing and distributing dairy cattle data, João’s immense experience with business management transitioning, genetic evaluations, performance recording, data processing and database management will help the U.S. dairy cattle industry build on its world leadership position and remain the gold standard in global genetic progress,” said CDCB Chair Ole Meland. “João understands how the United States – the most influential dairy cattle breeding country in the world – functions and possesses the managerial skills needed to coordinate a multi-dimensional operation and the entrepreneurship required to build a solid infrastructure of services. We look forward to João leading and managing CDCB’s business and financial operations, and building and improving the data and practices among CDCB’s partners.”

CDCB conducts genetic evaluations for economically important traits of dairy cattle. The CDCB allied partners cooperator database is the largest in the world, which is devoted to dairy animals, with more than 120 million female phenotypic records and more than 480,000 males receiving genetic evaluations or genomic predictions.

Heifer Genomics and Lactation Performance: Are They Related?

Over the past few years, we’ve seen many examples of the benefits of genomics on the sire side. Quantifying the advantages of genomic selection on the female side has been slower, primarily due to the cautious adoption of the technology at the herd level. Of the registered Holstein heifers born in Canada in 2013, less than 5% were genotyped. On the other hand, CDN projections show that uptake could increase to surpass the 18% mark by year 2020.

With genomic testing, producers have the opportunity to improve the genetic potential of their herd and decrease costs. This can be done by capitalizing on the herd’s best genetics through the use of sexed semen, flushing or IVF, or by selling the bottom end, breeding them with beef semen or using them as recipients.

Genomic Tested Heifers and First Lactation Performance

Does a heifer’s first genomic prediction provide enough information about future performance to allow confidence in selection and culling decisions at an early age? To answer this question, we examined three Canadian commercial herds that extensively genotyped heifers born in 2011. These animals were chosen since they have had the chance to complete their first lactation and be type classified.

Graph 1 compares the first genomic evaluation for milk yield (GPA Milk) after being genotyped as a heifer calf to the subsequent first lactation 305-day milk production. In total, the chart includes 305 cows born in 2011 from the three herds. Average 305-day milk yield was highest for Herd A, followed by Herd B, and was the lowest for Herd C. In general, within all three herds, the higher the GPA Milk as a heifer calf, the higher the first lactation 305-day milk yield as a cow. This clearly demonstrates the usefulness of genomic evaluations for heifers as a tool for identifying the animals that will perform better in your herd as a cow.

First Lactation Milk Yield versus Genomic

Graph 1 also shows the equations for predicting the first lactation 305-day milk yield in kilograms based on the genomic evaluation as a heifer. While the prediction is not perfect, on average 1 kg increase in GPA Milk resulted in a first lactation milk yield gain of 1.2 to 1.5 kg, depending on the herd. This exceeds the expectation of one kg milk yield per one kg of GPA Milk and presumably results from appropriate management in each herd. The actual yield per kg GPA Milk can be used to gauge whether the management level in a given herd is fully taking advantage of the herd’s genetic potential. If the management level wasn’t taking full advantage of the herd’s genetic potential, we’d expect the actual ratio of milk yield to GPA Milk to be less than one.

GPA LPI and First Lactation Performance

Is a higher genomic evaluation as a heifer calf associated with better first lactation performance? To answer this question the three herds studied above were analyzed separately and their data was subsequently combined to create Table 1. In total, 284 animals with a lactation and classification in first lactation were included in the analysis. These animals were divided into four groups of 71 cows based on their genomic evaluation for LPI as a heifer (GPA LPI). Table 1 compares the actual first lactation performance for production and type for the highest versus the lowest 25% of these animals based on GPA LPI.

The heifers that ranked within the top 25% for GPA LPI in their herd performed better in first lactation on nearly all accounts relative to the bottom quartile. As cows, the heifers that were in the top quartile for GPA LPI produced more milk, fat and protein, and scored higher at first classification for final score, mammary system and feet & legs than those in the bottom quartile. Categorizing heifers into the top and bottom quartiles based on their genomic LPI resulted in no significant difference in the average somatic cell count as cows in first lactation.

Average first lactation performance for the top and bottom 25% for GPA LPI as a heifer

What Does This Tell Us?

These findings validate that heifer calf genomic evaluations can be an indicator of future performance. In addition, they confirm that genotyping heifer calves at a young age can provide producers with useful information for making selection and culling decisions. Lastly, these results show that genomic LPI values for heifers can be used as primary selection criteria as they are related to first lactation performance for both production and conformation traits.
Authors: Lynsay Beavers and Brian Van Doormaal, CDN
Date: May 2014

Three reasons why performance data will always be important for genetic improvement

Three reasons why performance data will always be important for genetic improvement2014 marks five years of genomic evaluations in Canada, and has the world of genetic improvement ever changed!  

A common misconception brought to light over the past five years is that genomics will replace the need for traditional data recording systems such as those offered by DHI and breed associations. This is like saying because you use GPS technology in your tractor, you can sleep on the job. Yes, the technologies have improved by leaps and bounds, but this doesn’t mean they can be relied on exclusively. The reality with genomics is that it requires more accurate and complete performance data to maintain the accuracy of genetic evaluations and allow for a wider list of traits to be evaluated.

1) The number of important traits continues to expand

Thanks to existing DHI data collection systems, the Canadian dairy industry has been able to make genetic decisions and realize gains for many traits including production yields, fat and protein percentages, somatic cell, longevity, fertility, calving ease, calf survival, milking speed and milking temperament. In addition, type classification data collected by Holstein Canada has allowed for selection and gain in terms of the various conformation traits.

While the list of routinely evaluated traits in Canada is extensive, it continues to grow as new and important traits are identified. Most recently, DHI’s assistance in the collection of producer recorded health events has resulted in bull proofs for Mastitis Resistance that will be available starting August 2014. This new trait will provide producers the opportunity to select for increased resistance to this costly disease. In the near future, evaluations for resistance to metabolic diseases are also planned.

2) Proven bulls fuel the reference population

Genomic evaluations are more accurate than traditional evaluations thanks to a large reference population of genotyped progeny proven sires. Without a sizeable reference population, genomic evaluations would offer only small gains in accuracy.

The collection of performance data leads to a constant supply of new progeny proven bulls. Without these bulls continually fueling the reference population, young bulls selected for A.I. would get farther and farther away (less related) from the proven sires in the reference population. Over time, this would negatively affect the accuracy of genomic evaluations.

3) Verified on-farm data increases the reliability of a cow’s genetic evaluation

By now, most producers are well aware that genotyping is the fastest way to improve the reliability of a female’s genetic prediction. What some don’t realize is that reliability is enhanced even further when the animal’s performance data is incorporated into these predictions.

Without test day records or a classification, a cow would maintain a Parent Average (PA) for all production and type traits. Milk recording and classification data are added to the cow’s contribution from PA to produce an Estimated Breeding Value (EBV) that is more accurate. For example, consider a first lactation cow that was genotyped as a heifer. Upon classification, the reliability of this animal’s Conformation index will increase from 68% to 75%. Once completing a lactation, the reliability of her production evaluation will increase from 73% to 78%. Despite the jump in reliability achieved by genotyping, the incorporation of performance data boosts the reliability, making the cow’s evaluation even more accurate.

The success of genomics in Canada would not have been possible without a long history of performance recording. As we’ve learned, the future success of genomics depends largely on the same thing. Don’t set the GPS and fall asleep in the tractor – continue to fuel the accuracy of this technology by participating in traditional performance data recording programs.

Canadian A.I. Market Share Update

canadian ai market share update

Click to enlarge

Genetic Accuracy – Can you trust the numbers?

Dairy breeders are continually taking steps to be more exact about the way they farm and the products they buy, produce and sell.  However when it comes to the genetic make-up of our animals there remains significant difference of thought, amongst breeders, about the actual accuracy of the genetic information. Breeders are presented with a wide range of facts. Gold Medal, Extra, Star Brood, DOM, proven, genomic, photos, Supreme Champion … no wonder many breeders are confused. The Bullvine feels that breeders need to be objective about the animal information they see and to think in terms of the accuracy of the information. Now we are not talking about whether or not an animal meets the ideal. We’re talking about how much we can rely on the facts we see in hard copy or from virtual communication sources.

In the Beginning

In the nineteenth century milk cows were mostly dual purpose and herd size was small. People wanting to get into dairying purchased a cow or bull based on what the seller said were the animal’s merits. In time breed societies were formed to document lineage. That was followed in the early twentieth century with third party authentication of both yield and conformation.  The third party oversight of parentage and performance were the beginning steps to know the accuracy of the information. That was the start.

Many Steps Along The Way

Having a milk record or type classification authenticated for a single one cow in a herd was initially thought to be very useful information. The next move was to compare a cow to her dam to see if improvement had been made.  But that did not help much as the cow and her dam were not simultaneously at the same age and, in some cases, not in the same herd. Of course, over time we have learned that we need to know the performance of the cow’s herdmates. That was the stage where breeders started to compare animals within a herd with the desire to know which animals were superior, or, conversely, inferior for a trait. The biggest breakthrough in accurately determining the relative genetic merit of an animal came when Dr Charles Henderson, Cornell University, developed the analysis technique that he called B.L.U.P. (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction).  Forget about trying to understand the term, what it does is compare all animals within a herd and then compile the results across all herds to produce genetic rankings for males and females.

What About Accuracy?

From a genetic merit perspective it is important to know two things. Firstly where does the animal rank in the populations? And secondly, and also very important, how accurate is the prediction? How much trust can a breeder put in the animal’s genetic rating? If information is of limited accuracy, then it may be nice to know, but it does little for constructive breeding or to provide the opportunity to drive up on-farm profits. Accuracy produces confidence; confidence accelerates advancement, and negligence ruins the reputation which accuracy had raised. (Read more: Has Genomics Knocked Out Hot House Herds? And The Hot House Effect on Sire Sampling)

Let’s Compare Accuracy

The range in accuracy of genetic evaluation indexes goes from 0 to 99% and is called Reliability. The following chart is an approximation of the accuracy of predicting an animal’s total merit index (i.e TPI, NM$, LPI, or any other national total merit index) from the information that is known on the animal.

Reliability In Predicting An Animal Total Merit Index

Genetic Accuracy – Can you trust the numbers2

As far as accuracy goes the winners, as a result of incorporating genomic information into our genetic evaluation systems, have been young bulls, young heifers and brood cows. Adding genomic information has resulted in a doubling of the accuracy of their indexes. For further information on accuracy an interesting read is Two Ways to Look at Accuracy for Genomic Young Bulls published by Canadian Dairy Network.

What’s Ahead?

As more and more animals are genomically tested and recorded for their performance, the accuracy of all genetic indexes will increase.  Three other steps that will assist in increasing the accuracy of total merit indexing are needed:

  1. Have every milk weight, fat %, protein% and SCC automatically captured at every milking;
  2. Have information on new economically important traits collected;  and
  3. Have more economic information available on more traits.

Breeders will be the benefactors of having more and more accurate information so that they can make more and more accurate decisions.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

Having genomic information has been a significant step forward for increasing the accuracy of genetic indexes. But it will go beyond genetics and genomics in the future. Read past Bullvine articles for further details about genomics for health and management (Read more: Herd Health, Management, Genetics and Pilot Projects: A Closer Look at ZOETIS) and what lies beyond genomics (Read more: Forget Genomics – Epigenomics & Nutrigenomics are the Future). When buying genetics breeders need to check that the animals, semen or embryos they are considering will both follow their breeding plans (Read more: What’s the plan?) and that the information is accurate.  Breeding dairy cattle is faster paced every year. The accuracy of the information used is an important consideration.

 

 

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Two Ways to Look at Accuracy for Genomic Young Bulls

Genomic evaluations significantly increase the accuracy of genetic predictions. But are we at a stage where genomic young bulls are equally as reliable as proven sires? Absolutely not! 

In 2013, usage of genomic young bulls tipped the scale at over 50% nation-wide. While usage of genomic young bulls has increased, confusion about future proof expectations remains. To better understand the accuracy of evaluations for genomic young bulls, let’s look at this topic in two different ways, in terms of reliability and confidence ranges.

Reliability

The most common way the accuracy of a genetic evaluation is expressed is in terms of “Reliability,” as a percentage. Reliability reflects the amount of information in the genetic prediction and can depend on:

  • The Reliability of the evaluation of the parents
  • The number of records available for cows or of daughters for sires
  • The number of herds from which those records were collected
  • The heritability of the trait
  • Whether or not the animal has been genotyped

 

Reliabilities tell us how much confidence should be placed in a genetic prediction. They are also an indication of how much we can expect an evaluation to change over time, with higher reliabilities leading to less change. For example, we can expect the proof of a bull with a prediction of +2000 kg for Milk and Reliability of 95% to change less over time than a bull with the same proof, but a reliability of 70%.

Currently, there are four different groups of A.I. sires available for dairy producers to select. These groups have differing levels of Reliability, therefore, our expectations in terms of evaluation changes should differ for each category. The four groups include:

  1. Genomic young bulls that are sons of a genomic young bull
  2. Genomic young bulls that are sons of a progeny proven sire
  3. Foreign progeny proven sires with a MACE evaluation in Canada
  4. Sires with an official progeny proof in Canada

As mentioned above, genomic young bulls presently occupy over 50% of the semen market share in Canada. Among these bulls currently being offered, nearly 90% fall into Group 1 above. In other words, the vast majority of genomic young bulls available to producers are sired by genomic young bulls that are not yet progeny proven.

Table 1 reveals the average Reliability by trait for the four different groups of bulls. It comes as no surprise that progeny proven sires have higher reliabilities than genomic young bulls. It is important to note, however, that even within these two categories there are Reliability differences. For example, sires in Group 1 have a lower average Reliability (67% for LPI) than sires in Group 2 (72% for LPI), even though we consider both groups as genomic young bulls. Group 1 has the lowest average Reliability of the four groups meaning we can expect larger proof changes over time.

Also noteworthy is the fact that not all proven sires are equally as reliable. Genotyped foreign proven sires with a GMACE LPI in Canada have an average LPI Reliability of 83% and therefore, they are more likely to experience proof changes over time compared to bulls with an official domestic LPI, which average 90% Reliability for LPI.
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Confidence Ranges

Another way to convey accuracy, and the associated risk of change, is by using Confidence Ranges as displayed in Table 2. Confidence Ranges are useful because they can provide a realistic expectation of the magnitude of change that may affect a bull’s genetic predictions. Again, as we move from left to right among the four groups of bulls, the range of change decreases thanks to higher average Reliability.

Recall the example from above where we had two bulls with the same proof of +2000 kg for Milk, but one with a Reliability of 70% (Bull A) and another with a Reliability of 95% (Bull B). Bull A is from Group 1 and Bull B is from Group 4. According to the Confidence Range table below, we would expect that 90% of the time:

  • Bull A’s proof will be within ±680 kg of 2000 kg (between 1320-2680 kg)
  • Bull B’s proof will be within ±280 kg of 2000 kg (between 1720-2280 kg)

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The largest potential change downward is associated with Group 1, while the smallest is associated with Group 4. Likewise, the greatest potential for reward is associated with Group 1. It is for this reason producers are urged to spread their risk by using a team of genomic young bulls in order to manage the higher risk and larger magnitude of change. In addition, expectations must be realistic – genomic young bulls in Group 1 are going to experience more change than domestic progeny proven sires in Group 4!

As is the case with genomic young bulls worldwide, genomic evaluations tend be overestimated to some degree. CDN geneticists are actively researching and implementing methods to decrease sources of bias that lead to this overestimation. The goal is to provide Canadian producers with the most accurate and stable evaluations possible. Information presented in this article is intended to help producers understand the risks associated with using different bulls in order to help them have realistic expectations about proof results, and ultimately, help them make the best decisions for the goals of their operation.

Authors: Lynsay Beavers and Brian Van Doormaal, Canadian Dairy Network

Date: April 2014

Geneticists versus The Weather Man: Who gets it right more often?

From when to plant, fertilize or harvest our crops to what sire to use, breeders are always looking for reliable assistance.  For most dairy farmers, there are two things they love to complain about.  One is the weather and the other is bull proofs.  No one ever says that predicting the future is easy.  Sure we put more credibility into Al Roker’s weather forecast than we do the one given by the young blonde, who seems to be there more for eye candy than for knowledge set.  But the question remains, “How accurate is either weather forecast?”  At the Bullvine we decided to look at how the genetic evaluations system compares to the predictions of meteorologists.

In many ways Dairy Cattle Genetics and Meteorology are very similar.  Both use complex mathematical models to predict the future.  The formulas and complexity of these models make most people’s heads spin.  But after all the numbers and formulas are calculated, who does the better job?

To compare these two prognosticators we looked at the accuracy of the average 3 day weather forecast from the National Weather Service last year and compared them to  initial genomic proofs of young sires and then to  a bull’s  first daughter proofs.  What we found was that the average 3-day weather forecast is accurate, within e degrees, 71.19% of the time.  For genomic young sires, we know that the average sire with a 50K test compared to a proven sire is about 72% reliable.  So the average young sire’s proof is as accurate as a 3-day weather forecast.  Sure things can change quickly but more than 70% of the time you can rely on the information to be accurate and 95% of the time you can expect a genomic tested young sire to perform at least within 20% of their expected values.  (Read more: The Truth About Genomic Indexes – “show me” that they work!)

When comparing a next day forecast to that of a 1st crop proven sire, we find the advantage for accuracy goes to the geneticists.  The next day weather forecasts for the national weather service’s jump up to 87.24% accurate to within 3 degrees, and 1st crop proven sires with a genomic test are 90% accurate.  To put things into perspective.  A non-genomic tested young sire’s proof is as about as accurate as a 7 day weather forecast.  Both are well below 50% accuracy and are more or less only good enough to forecast a general trend.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

Sure there are those who prefer not to use genomic young sires, when it comes to their breeding programs.  However I would hazard a guess that they are also using the Farmers’ Almanac, instead of the weather forecasts, to predict when to plant their corn or harvest their hay.  (Read more: Dairy Breeders vs. Genetic Corporations: Who are the True Master Breeders?)  For those breeders that are willing to let a little science help them to make their job easier, genomic proofs have considerably improved the accuracy.  Today’s average genomic young sire is about as accurate a prediction of performance as a 3-day weather forecast.  Accurate enough to make informed decisions, but not able to guarantee that a freak storm won’t come in and change things.

 

 

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CDCB Proposed changes to evaluation system (April 2014)

Improved discovery of maternal grandsires

By George Wiggans and Lillian Bacheller

The pedigree maternal grandsire (MGS) is checked for consistency as each genotype is processed. If the pedigree MGS is determined to be unlikely or unknown, all bulls that are enough older than the animal to be an MGS and not one of the excluded relatives are considered as a possible MGS. A procedure that checks 1 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at a time has been used. A recent report by van Kaam and Hayes (2013) suggested that greater accuracy could be achieved if whole intervals (half the chromosome plus 1 SNP) were checked as a unit. A test set of 5,133 genotypes was selected at random from families in which the animal, sire, dam, and MGS were all genotyped with more than 3,000 SNP. The single-SNP method found the true MGS 92.6% of the time, which was 1.2 percentage points more often than the interval method; therefore, the single-SNP method was retained. Based on analysis of true MGS, the single-SNP method was revised to allow MGS with a conflict percentage that caused them to be classified as unlikely to be proposed as the discovered MGS. The threshold for conflict percentage for a bull to be considered as an MGS was increased by 3 percentage points, and the minimum age of an MGS at the animal’s birth was reduced to 1,150 days. In addition, more bulls were considered after initial screening based on 1,000 SNP. Those changes increased the accuracy in the test set by 5.5 percentage points.

Reference:
van Kaam, J.B.C.H.M., and B.J. Hayes. 2013. Maternal grandsire verification and detection without imputation. Interbull Bull. 47:120–124.


Revised LD chip and incorporation of gene tests

By George Wiggans, Paul VanRaden, and Dan Null

The low density (LD) chip from Illumina was revised slightly; the new version will be referred to as LD2 with chip number 13 in formats 38 and 105. Chips LD and LD2 are nearly synonymous, with changes much smaller than between the 50K chip versions 1 and 2. Compared with LD, the LD2 excludes 5 previous markers and includes 8 additional markers from the 50K chip. Numbers of markers currently used are 6,785 from LD and 6,787 from LD2.

Several tests for simply inherited genetic conditions that previously were available on the GeneSeek Genomic Profiler version 2 (GP2) and GeneSeek High Density (GHD) for individual animals are now provided to CDCB for all animals. These tests include Arachnomelia, Beta-Lactoglobulin, Bovine Growth Hormone Receptor, BLAD, Citrullinemia, DUMPS, Leptin, Recessive Red, Mulefoot haplotype, SDM, SMA, and Weaver haplotype. Incorporation of direct gene tests or targeted markers for more animals will improve the haplotype tests for animals previously genotyped with chips that did not contain these and will allow more conditions to be reported and genomic predictions to be improved.


Revised calculation of genomic future inbreeding

By Chuanyu Sun and Paul VanRaden

Genomic future inbreeding (GFI) for Holsteins is now calculated as the average genomic relationship of each animal to proven bulls born in the last 10 years, whereas previously and for the other breeds the definition includes proven bulls and cows with records born in the last 10 years. In April, 73,422 Holstein cows had records in the reference population. Time required to compute genomic relationships for 400,637 young animals with all of the reference animals became excessive, whereas calculation of relationships with the 25,011 reference bulls was more manageable (< 1 day). The slightly revised definition caused only very small changes to GFI. Another purpose of the genomic relationships is to compare to pedigree relationships in order to detect incorrect pedigrees of imputed dams, but some of these may no longer be detected because of the reduced computation.


Jersey genotypes from Denmark

The genotype exchange with Denmark was previously announced in January, and monthly evaluations since then have included the additional Danish genotypes. This is just a reminder that April is the first full release when the added genotypes affect all bulls that were previously evaluated in December. For further information see:

January changes

 

Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding Update for 2013

The Council on Dairy Cattle breeding recently release the following report from their recent meeting.  Click here

Criteria for an Official Bull Proof in Canada

Minimum Criteria & Standards for Bull Proofs - Updated for August 2014 Release

Genetic Evaluation Board (GEB) Executive Summary – March 2014

The Genetic Evaluation Board (GEB) held its regular semi-annual meeting on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at the Best Western Plus Hotel Universel in Drummondville, Québec, which was preceded the day before by its regular Open Industry Session. The following is a summary of the discussions and recommendations from the GEB, which will be considered by the Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) Board of Directors at its next meeting scheduled for May 7-8, 2014.

  • Art Pruim from Plum Blossom Dairy in Osler, Saskatchewan, was elected as Chairman of the Genetic Evaluation Board for 2014.
  • To be implemented for the April 2014 release, the GEB recommended that CDN apply an adjustment to traditional progeny proofs for production and major type traits for Holstein sires that have more than 30% of their milk-recorded daughters resulting from embryo transfer (ET). This adjustment, aimed at accounting for the preferred treatment of daughters, will reduce proofs by 55, 3.8 and 1.8 kg for milk, fat and protein, respectively, and by .5 for each of Conformation, Mammary System, Feet & Legs, Dairy Strength and Rump for every 10% ET above 30%. While relatively few sires will be affected by this adjustment, the accuracy of genomic evaluations for all animals is expected to be improved. 
  • Based on a proposal received from CDN, the GEB supported the exclusion of insemination data collected by DHI agencies from the calculation of Semen Fertility ratings for bulls that have any reported breedings using sexed semen during each of the 12-month periods included in the analysis. This additional process for data editing will be implemented by the monthly analysis released in June 2014 at the latest and results provided to the A.I. member organizations. Unless properly reported, the inclusion of inseminations using sexed semen systematically biases the bull’s rating for Semen Fertility downwards, leading to an inaccurate evaluation. Going forward, DHI agencies are working to improve the completeness of recording breedings with sexed semen at the farm level and more A.I. organizations may submit insemination data directly to CDN.
  • In an effort to maximize the accuracy of cow evaluations, the GEB recommended the implementation of a proposed methodology for adjusting the degree of deviation that an evaluation can have from the cow’s pedigree index based on the proof for their sire and maternal grandsire. This adjustment, which will apply to the production and type traits as well as Somatic Cell Score, has a more significant impact on high ranking cows that are not genotyped compared to those with a genomic evaluation. Implementation by CDN will apply to breeds with genomic evaluations, namely Holstein, Ayrshire, Jersey and Brown Swiss, and is targeted for the August 2014 release. 
  • As part of the final stages prior to the implementation of official Mastitis Resistance evaluations for the Holstein, Ayrshire and Jersey breeds in August 2014, the GEB recommended that (1) the Mastitis Resistance index combine Clinical Mastitis in first lactation, Clinical Mastitis in later lactations and Somatic Cell Score with equal weights on each, (2) official genomic evaluations be computed for the Holstein breed, and (3) the minimum criteria for an official progeny proof be the same as those applied for Daughter Fertility based on the number of daughters and herds with data for Clinical Mastitis in first lactation and the corresponding Reliability. A table outlining the minimum criteria for an official traditional progeny proof for each trait within breed is available on the CDN web site. In accordance with the August 2014 genetic evaluation release, CDN will launch a new page providing details associated with evaluations for “Health” traits that will be linked to the Genetic Evaluation Summary page for each progeny proven sire.
  • The GEB continued the discussions that ensued during the previous day’s Open Industry Session following up on the CDN Strategic Planning Session and meeting of the Board of Directors. Of particular interest was the mandate for CDN to explore the development of a second national profitability index aiming to maximize herd profitability for commercial dairy producers, alongside the LPI. Through consultation with the various breed associations, A.I. organizations and producer groups, CDN will provide a report on this mandate at the next Open Industry Session in October 2014. No changes to the LPI formula will be implemented prior to April 2015, which is also the target date for introduction of any second profitability index that may arise from this effort.
  • In terms of eventual changes to the LPI formula, the GEB supported the inclusion of Mastitis Resistance in the Health and Fertility component for the Holstein, Ayrshire and Jersey breeds, instead of the current udder health traits, namely Somatic Cell Score, Udder Depth and Milking Speed. The GEB recommended that the calculation of LPI for genomic young sires also include an adjustment to credit bulls with an outcross pedigree, as reflected by having a publishable Relationship Value (R-Value) that is lower than average. The GEB also encouraged CDN to continue the ongoing analysis showing the existing association between LPI for each breed and realized profit at the herd level, including the publication of extension articles on this important topic.
  • One of the key priority areas for CDN identified by the GEB is the improvement of procedures for processing MACE evaluations received from Interbull and the subsequent calculation of genomic evaluations. Specifically, traits where improvement is expected include female fertility, longevity, calving performance, the five major type traits as well as fat and protein deviation. CDN will report on the impact of improvements at the Open Industry Session in October 2014 with implementation planned by the December 2014 release.
  • Given that Canada will officially participate in the Genomic MACE services provided by Interbull on an ongoing basis starting with the April 2014 release, the GEB recommended that CDN conduct an analysis of the ranking of young genomic sires marketed in Canada on the scales of other major countries based on their resulting Genomic MACE evaluations. 
  • As follow-up to the project funded by Zoetis Canada that led to the 50K genotyping of over 550 Ayrshire cows born before 2008, CDN presented results showing the gain in accuracy of prediction with genomics achieved by their inclusion in the reference population. As a consequence, the GEB recommended that CDN work towards the inclusion of genotyped cows with an official LPI in the reference population for Ayrshire, Jersey and Brown Swiss genomic evaluations starting December 2014. An impact analysis including the gain in accuracy achieved will be presented at the Open Industry Session in October 2014.
  • In conjunction with the genomic validation analyses conducted by CDN, the GEB recommended that a similar analysis be carried out to quantify the degree to which high LPI genomic heifers may be over-estimated compared to their evaluation as a cow. It was agreed that any level of bias in genomic evaluations for young sires and heifers should ideally be removed by improving the accuracy of traditional evaluations for their sires and dams.
  • The GEB supported the continued effort of CDN aimed at developing extension tools for producers to better understand the risk of change in a genomic evaluation depending of the level of Reliability. It was recommended that CDN publish tables including the average Reliability of genomic evaluations on a trait by trait basis for various groups of A.I. sires as well as the associated confidence ranges that quantify the risk of change.
  • The GEB received a technical update on research at CDN examining methods for approximating Reliability of Direct Genomic Values (DGVs) with the aim of increasing the frequency of genomic evaluation updates in the future. It was agreed that CDN could introduce simplified procedures that achieve this goal for monthly services provided to A.I. member organizations.
  • The next Open Industry Session will be held on Tuesday, October 21, 2014 at the Holiday Inn in Guelph, Ontario with the Genetic Evaluation Board meeting the following day.

If there are any questions, concerns or comments regarding the recommendations of the Genetic Evaluation Board, as outlined in this summary, please feel free to contact committee members listed at http://www.cdn.ca/committees-geb.php or by contacting Brian Van Doormaal directly at Canadian Dairy Network.

Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding

Fee Schedule
The CDCB Fee Schedule for Genomic Evaluation Fees, updated December 17, 2013 is posted on the CDCB web site at www.cdcb.us. The revised schedule contained some reduced fees that were effective on the January 2014 invoices.

GMACE Update
The Interbull April GMACE run will be an implementation (unofficial) run. Previous action was to not contribute US genomic evaluations for use in Interbull routine (official) runs.
The CDCB board decided to contribute US genomic evaluations to the February GMACE test run under the condition there be two comparison test runs, one containing the US data and one without the US data, in an effort to ensure that Interbull GMACE results are accurate regardless of whether a major country’s data (such as the U.S.) are included or excluded. If this is not possible, then the US does not agree for its data to be used for the test run.

Research Advisory Working Group The Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding established a broad based Research Advisory Working Group (RAWG). The primary objective of RAWG is to review research results and make recommendations to CDCB Board on research results being considered for incorporation into the genetic evaluation programs. RAWG will make recommendations to the CDCB Board on genetic and management research priorities and be an advocate for new data needed to accomplish the CDCB’s objective to grow the quality and quantity of the cooperator database.

Historic/Predictor Bulls
Genotypes of bulls acquired through exchanges, Interbull (Brown Swiss) or efforts by partners (CDN for example) to add bulls to the predictor set where US genomic evaluation is not being used to market the bull, will receive fee code “W” (Waived). Foreign code W bulls over 15 months of age will have their evaluations released as though the AI Service Fee has been paid. Bulls being marketed using a US genomic evaluation with genotypes acquired through the above process can either have the AI Service Fee paid or be designated historic (Fee Code H) which allows them to contribute to the predictor population, but not have their evaluation released. At the discretion of the CDCB board, other bulls with traditional evaluations that are not being marketed may have their fees waived (fee code “W”). CDCB staff will suggest bulls to the CDCB board for this status.

American Dairy Goat Association (ADGA) Proposal for Genetic Evaluations
The CDCB board reviewed a proposal from ADGA to transfer the service portion of genetic evaluations and distribution of results from AIPL to ADGA. The data would be housed on the CDCB server and CDCB staff would offer limited technical support. The CDCB endorsed the concept and recommended modifications to the proposal to be sent to the ADGA.

Material License Agreement (MLA)
The proposed MLA of the Holstein Association USA and National Association of Animal Breeders as well as a standard template MLA has been shared with the Executive Committee of the CDCB. Next step is to share these MLA’s with the CDCB board for their review.

Council on Dairy Cattle Breeders, Chief Executive Officer Search Committee update The Chief Executive Officer position announcement and job description is posted on the CDCB web site at www.cdcb.us. Applications are due not later than Tuesday March 4 at 4:00 pm EST. Questions can be directed to Jay Mattison, CDCB CEO Search Committee Chair jmattison@dhia.org or Ole Meland, CDCB Chairomleand34476@gmail.com.

NOTE: THE APPLICATION DUE DATE WAS EXTENDED TO March 14, 2014.

Holstein USA vs CDCB: The battle for control

Recently there has been a lot of discussion about the future of the dairy breeding industry.  New technology, new information and new organizations are entering the industry at record rates.  The problem is that along with all the changes there is also concern about who is leading these changes and protecting the interests of the average breeder.  One of the ongoing battles is the one surrounding the production and publication of US genetic evaluations.  The recent development of the Council for Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) has sparked a war between CDCB and Holstein USA over access to information.  Both sides are threatening to take their toys and go home.

”He who controls the information controls the world.”

Is anyone even considering the answer to the question, “Who does the information belong to?”  As we wrote back in March of 2012 the conflict is over who will have control of the information.  (Read more: Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding: Land of the Free and Home of the Brave?) Now more than 2 years later this battle is coming to a head.  Rumors suggest that Holstein USA is threatening that they won’t share type data with CDCB/USDA because they are not in support of positions and actions being taken at CDCB and are even considering producing their own genetic evaluations for production in addition to the evaluations they currently do for type.  Now let’s be clear.  Up until this point Holstein USA has cooperated fully in the exchange of data.  However, they have been very upfront about their concerns regarding material licensing agreements (MLAs) and the usage of Holstein data.

Enemy at the gates

When you consider that larger and larger corporations have now started to enter into the dairy genetics marketplace, whoever has access to the information will have the power.  If these new players get instant free access to this information, what does that mean to breeders?  I would guess that it would not be positive to seed stock producers or to those who market and sell dairy cattle genetics that has already seen significant decline in their animal values.(Read more: An Insider’s Guide to What Sells at the Big Dairy Cattle Auctions 2013, Who Killed The Market For Good Dairy Cattle? and Is There Still Going To Be A Market For Purebred Dairy Cattle In 10 Years?)  You see the big nasty label should not be applied to the AI companies but rather to multinational supply companies.  That is the enemy I think the large AI companies are most threatened by.  Not the smaller AI organizations taking market share but rather these significantly larger corporations that have the resources to squash the large AI companies like a bug.

Imperfect Track Record

Now let’s say that USDA’s recent track record leaves some questions in many breeders’ minds.  Their decision to restrict breeders’ rights to genomic test their own bulls for a period of time certainly raised the ire of many.  Now the heated debate includes the formation of CDCB comprised of Breeds, DHI and AI (each with 3 seats on the board).  There doesn’t appear to be any apparent savings and no intention to reduce the USDA budget as a result of this decision.  And with the makeup of the board, it is felt that it is controlled by NAAB and the large AI organizations.

Once again this has me asking who exactly controls the information.

Holstein USA has been very vocal about stating that they have their members’ best interests at heart.  I respect that.  However I also see the other viewpoint that points out that this is the same information that members have paid for and yet they don’t get free access to it as in other countries.  Moreover, the limited amount of information that they do get access to comes with additional charges.  In the US is costs $8US to register a calf, in Canada it costs $9 CDN to register a calf.  Considering the exchange values these are about the same expense.  Though in Canada all information is then made publicly available to all.  In the US everyone has to pay an additional $3US per animal in order to get that information. So does Holstein USA really have their members interests at heart?  Or are they driven by their own survival and pocket book?  This is why the relevance of breed associations and programs like type classification are becoming key issues for many breeders.  (Read more: What is the Role of a Dairy Cattle Breed Association? and She Ain’t Pretty – She Just Milks That Way!)

The Bullvine Bottom Line

Am I saying that I am in full support of CDCB’s actions?  No.  It seems to be heavily weighted against breeders and towards the interest of the larger AI companies.  I am most concerned that breeders have access to information.  As more and more AI companies get into owning  females and  developing  of their own bloodlines, the  very livelihood of  seed stock producers is threatened (Read more: Should A.I. Companies Own Females?, Why Good Business for AI Companies Can Mean Bad Business For Dairy Breeders, and What the Experts Won’t Tell You about the Future of the A.I. Industry).  So I understand why Holstein USA should be concerned.  The majority of the membership, and especially those at the board level, is made up of these very seed stock producers.  So if they were truly concerned about these breeders, why don’t them allow them access to all the information?  It’s not about control.  It’s about breeders’ success. Nobody wins if infighting prevents progress.

 

 

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The Number That Will Change the Way You Look At Genetic Evaluations Forever…

There is no question that, when you are looking to breed the next great show cow or sire of show winners, you are hoping to get a high type outlier.  You want to get the animal that is the farthest as possible from being average.  Yet all of the indexes provided to most breeders are averages.  They do not show you a sire’s ability to produce outliers.  They tell you the sire’s average performance and the problem is most breeders don’t want to be average.

The easiest way to find outliers is to compare two sires for their daughters’ performance. Then identify those sires that have the greatest deviation from their average daughter. This is not to be confused with Type scores in the US that are expressed in Standard Deviations.  The best way to describe this is by an example.

Let’s say we have two bulls each with 10 daughters.  The following table shows their level of improvement for type across the 10 Daughters.

daudevconfind

Both of these sires would have an average improvement of 12 points.  Hypothetically if this was the whole population of their daughters they both would get the same conformation score.  The problem is they are two very different sires and the numbers tell us that.  However these are not the numbers that most breeders get to see.

Looking closer we see that Bull A daughters have a range of 18 points while Bull B’s daughters only range 4 points.  Sure both bulls, on average, will perform the same but, when you are looking to breed for the extremes (such as AI companies are), or you are wanting to produce the most consistent results possible, you need to know these differences between bulls. (Read more:  Duds and Studs – Why you shouldn’t use the same sires as the AI units).  This is also the reason you will often see AI units using a sire of sons that is maybe not #1 on the list, but rather a few places lower.  That is because he has exhibited the ability to show the greatest range in his progeny.

These numbers that the average breeder would never see are actually available to as they don’t generally get published.  But geneticists at the AI companies look very carefully at them.  They are available in the US – at least for production information if you search for them on the Council On Dairy Cattle Breeding’s website. This number is expressed as Daughter Yield Deviation (DauDev).  Daughter deviation is how much a given daughters spread out from the mean.  So it is a strong indicator of how variable his daughters are relative to other sires.  When we look at the top 10 domestic proven sires for Milk Yield in the US we find the following

daughterdevpro

What you see here is that STOUDER JAYVEN on average will produce the greatest production improvement (+2860).

Now. Let’s say you are not wanting the average performance.  Instead you want to find that outlier that will give the potential for the greatest improvement.  For that you would actually use DE-SU 553 NOBLELAND.  That is because his daughters have the greatest DauDev (+3544) and his average predicted transmitting ability (+2705) meaning that he has the variable potential improvement of +6249. That is 418 points higher than JAYVEN (+5831).  On average JAYVEN will outperform NOBLELAND. But NOBLELAND is the most likely to give you the greatest outlier.  That is because there is 27% greater deviation in daughter performance compared to average performance in NOBLELAND’s daughters than JAYVEN’s.

For those of you that are looking for the most consistent performer, you actually want the sire that has the highest potential with a small daughter deviation.  In this case that would be MISTVALE MAC.  While he will not give you list toppers, he will give you the most consistent performance with the smallest range in daughter performance.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

When it comes to finding outliers, you ultimately need to know the sires that will give you the greatest deviation in his daughter performance combined with his predicted transmitting ability.  One of the things that made sires like Braedale GOLDWYN exceptional was not his performance average but rather his ability to breed outliers for type.  When you are making your next breeding decision, ask yourself “Am I looking for an outlier?”  Or “Do I want the best average performer?”


The Dairy Breeders No BS Guide to Genomics

 

Not sure what all this hype about genomics is all about?

Want to learn what it is and what it means to your breeding program?

Download this free guide.

 

 

 

Understanding Interbull Evaluations: MACE and New IGI Values

In addition to national genetic evaluations calculated by Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) using performance data recorded from dairy herds across Canada, CDN has also published genetic evaluations for foreign progeny proven sires for nearly 20 years.
These international bull evaluations, named Multi-Trait Across Country Evaluations (MACE), are provided to CDN as a service from the Interbull Centre located in Uppsala, Sweden. In 2014, Interbull will introduce a new, important service referred to as Genomic MACE, which focuses on genomic young sires from around the world. The methodologies underlying both MACE for progeny proven sires and GMACE for genomic young sires were both proudly developed by Canadian scientists.

Fundamentals of MACE

Imagine 30 different countries, each with their own Holstein population and national evaluation systems for calculating bull proofs and cow indexes for various important traits. Each country has its own animal identification and herdbook registration system for recording animal details and parentage information; its own type classification system; and its own milk recording system that may, or may not, also collect data related to calving ease, fertility, longevity, milking speed and milking temperament, etc. The genetic evaluation centre within each country has developed and implemented its own methods and genetic evaluations are often expressed on different scales, making bull proofs not comparable across countries.

At the Interbull Centre, they receive the national evaluations from each of these 30 countries and apply the MACE methodology to derive an evaluation for each bull expressed on each of the 30 different country scales. This is done for production, conformation, somatic cell, longevity calving performance, female fertility and milkability traits. For the December 2013 release, Interbull produced MACE evaluations for production traits for nearly 135,000 progeny proven Holstein sires from over 30 different countries. CDN received a MACE evaluation for each of these bulls, loaded all foreign sires from other countries into its database and published the MACE proofs via its web site. Such foreign bulls are labelled by CDN with a MACE LPI and specific lists of Top MACE LPI Sires are produced regularly.

Genomic MACE for Foreign Young Bulls

With the arrival of genomic evaluations in various countries, there has been a growing interest and demand for the international marketing of semen from young genomic bulls. This creates the same problem that originated before the development of MACE. The fact that proofs for progeny proven sires are not comparable across countries also extends to genomic young sires. For this reason, Interbull will launch a new official service in 2014, referred to as Genomic MACE, which allows producers in Canada to assess the merit of genomic young sires from Europe and other countries around the world compared to young bulls already with a genomic evaluation in Canada based on a genotype at CDN. Due to existing genotype exchange agreements, genomic young bulls in Canada, United States, Italy and the United Kingdom will already have a Canadian genomic evaluation based on their genotype so their Genomic MACE evaluation received from Interbull will not be published by CDN. Other countries expected to have young sires with a Genomic MACE evaluation in Canada include Germany, France, Netherlands, Scandinavia, Spain, Poland, Switzerland and Australia.

How are Genomic MACE Evaluations Calculated?

Prior to genomics, the only way that a Canadian bull could receive a reasonably accurate genetic evaluation in another country was following the importation of semen and the recording of production and classification data on resulting daughters. Basically, bulls required some form of progeny proof in each country. MACE services from Interbull provided a prediction of what each bull’s proof would be in all other countries not yet having a progeny proof. Today, it is very easy for any young bull to have a genomic evaluation in many countries; simply by having a genotype in each one. For this reason, Genomic MACE evaluations from Interbull are of interest. Genomic MACE evaluations use the national genomic evaluation estimated in each of the countries where a genotype exists and produces a genomic evaluation on the scales of the countries that do not yet have a genotype. It goes without saying that the ideal scenario is having the bull’s genotype available to directly compute a genomic evaluation in each country but complete and open sharing of all bull genotypes is not yet a reality in the world of Holsteins.

Identifying Genomic MACE Evaluations at CDN

Effective the April 2014 genetic evaluation release, the “Animal Query” on the CDN web site (www.cdn.ca) will provide access to the Genomic MACE evaluations for nearly 5,000 foreign young sires that have a genomic evaluation in another country but no genotype at CDN for estimating a Canadian genomic evaluation directly. Entering the bull’s name or registration number will display its Genetic Evaluation Summary page with a Genomic MACE evaluation for traits where one is available, otherwise a Parent Average. A new label, namely “IGI” for International Genomic Index, will be displayed to represent Genomic MACE evaluations.

Summary

For nearly 20 years now, Interbull has been providing international bull evaluation services, specifically MACE evaluations, to participating countries that submit their national bull proofs for expression on all other country scales. Over the years, Interbull has increased its service portfolio to include more traits and the number of participating countries has continually grown to now surpass 30 in total for Holsteins. In 2014, Interbull is launching a new, important service, referred to as Genomic MACE, which provides international bull evaluations for young bulls that have a genomic evaluation submitted from any of the participating countries. In April 2014, the CDN web site query will provide access to these Genomic MACE evaluations for nearly 4,000 foreign genomic young sires, identified with the “IGI” label.

Author: Brian Van Doormaal Date: February 2014

Interbull hiring new Chief of Operations

The Interbull Centre provides genetic information services and applied research for improvement of livestock to a worldwide network and fulfills a mandate as a European Union Reference Laboratory (EURL).

The Interbull Centre is a section of the Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), which has been contracted by the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) to be the operational unit for the Interbull permanent subcommittee and for the Interbeef working group. In this capacity Interbull Centre is responsible for conducting several genetic/genomic evaluation processes involving data from more than 32 member countries from five continents. As the EURL for Zootechnics, the Interbull centre interacts with the EU member states through the international genetic evaluation services and also provides assistance to the European Commission in issues related to bovine breeding and genetics. The Interbull Centre is formed by seven full time staff, one part time consultant, a PhD student and it is supported by the Interbull Secretariat.

As Chief of operations you are responsible for the daily working routines of the group concerning genetic information services. You have a responsibility to manage and develop the work activities, and organize the group in order to utilize and develop available skills in a suitable manner. Moreover, you are responsible for controlling documents and processes, strategically planning and prioritizing projects, and for the laboratory’s infrastructure and working environment. You keep regular contacts with geneticists and data managers from the member countries to ensure the quality of data exchanges between the Interbull Centre and the members. You are also responsible for monitoring the progress of several genetic evaluation processes conducted by the Interbull Centre’s service team. You are also a catalyst and motivator for the Interbull Centre’s development, both internally and externally. You work half time with your managerial duties and half time operatively within the group that handles large data sets and performs phenotypic-, pedigree and SNP-analyses in order to genetically merit individual bulls. The results are compiled and made available to the clients of interest.

Qualifications

You have a college/university degree in science with a preferable focus on computational- or quantitative genetics. It is meritorious if you hold a PhD in this subject area and have conducted your own research. For this role it is crucial that you are experienced in, or have a profound understanding of the process regarding handling large data sets. Moreover, it is desirable that you are experienced in Python, Fortran, R, or shell programming/scripting. You are a responsible person with extensive strategic, organisational and decision-making skills. You are expected to be service oriented with the ability to delegate and lead personnel, and your work is focused on quality. The role requires you to be outgoing, communicative and responsive with very good oral and written English. It is also desirable that you speak Swedish. We place great emphasis on your personal characteristics.

About the Interbull Centre
The International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) was founded in 1951 and is today the world-wide organization for the standardization of animal recording and productivity evaluation. During the past half century, ICAR has evolved into a global organization known for establishing standards and guidelines for animal recording, identification and genetic evaluations.

INTERBULL became a permanent sub-committee of the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) in 1988, supported by its parent organizations EAAP and IDF, and also the FAO. It is managed by an ICAR appointed Steering Group, consisting of members from different countries.

Following a call for tender the Interbull Centre was established in 1991 under contract with the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala, Sweden, and with financial support from the Swedish Farmers’ Foundation for Agricultural Research, the dairy industry and the Swedish Board of Agriculture. In 1996 the European Union (EU) appointed the Interbull Centre as the community reference body for bovine evaluations. Additional information about the Interbull Centre can be obtained at www.interbull.org.

Employer: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

Location: Uppsala.

Scope: Full time. SLU applies a six month probationary period.

Application closing date: 10th of March 2014.

For information: In this recruitment SLU cooperates with Proffice Life Science. For questions regarding this position, contact Recruitment Consultant Stefan Grip, 073-343 41 45, stefan.grip@proffice.se. You are welcome to register your application atwww.profficelifescience.se.

Annual Management Reports from CDCB

Five annual management reports have been prepared by CDCB staff and are available at https://www.cdcb.us/publish/dhi.htm . These reports are the annual K report series that provide participation summaries for DHI and breeds.  Plans are to release the 2 additional reports (Reason Cows Exit the Herd, and Reproductive Status of Cows) later in the spring.

Executive Summary from the Interbull Steering Committee

The Interbull Steering Committee (SC) held a web-phone conference on February 4, 2014, and this is the summary of the decisions.

Methodology to be adopted in the Feb 2014 GMACE test run

Interbull carried out a pilot GMACE study in December 2013 to define which reliabilities should be used for GMACE in practice. The objectives of the pilot study were:

  1. Develop prediction equations to regress national reliabilities toward a globally standardized set of expectations.
  2. Study the merits of predicted (fully regressed) reliabilities, partially regressed reliabilities, or the provided (not regressed) reliabilities in GMACE.
  3. Investigate the option of a GMACE model that does not include variance estimation.
  4. Carry out cross-validation tests to compare the different approaches.

Considering the input from participating countries and the Interbull Technical Committee (ITC), the SC decided to adopt the methodology which does not include a genomic variance estimation step and estimate the genomic reliabilities as a combination of predicted reliabilities and the national reliabilities provided by the users. This option is referred to as MP.5, and will be adopted as the official method in the February 2014 GMACE test run, as well as in the April and August 2014 runs.

Bull controlling country

The SC has decided to request additional information from the service users regarding which bulls are controlled by companies/stud within the area of influence of each country participating in Interbull international comparisons (MACE & GMACE). This information will have strategic use for interpreting all types of results distributed by Interbull and it will play an important role on the GMACE publication policy. The steps to be taken are the following:

  1. All countries sending data for GMACE have the option to send a list of bulls which they claim to have the control over until Feb 28, 2014.
  2. The lists received will be merged and made available to all participating countries, shortly after data reception, allowing potential conflicts to be resolved before distribution.
  3. For bulls included in the supplied controlling country list, publication status declared by the controlling country will take preference regardless of publication status in other countries.
  4. The previously distributed ”ownership” list will be renamed as ”publication status” list and will contain a list of bulls which comply with the following criteria for the controlling country:
    1. Status of bull = 10 (AI bull)
    2. Publication status = Y (bull meets the national standards for official publication)
  5. For any bull not included in any user-supplied controlling country file, the bull will be considered publishable in routine runs if at least one GEBV record included in GMACE, for any population and any trait, has.
  6. Given that the Feb 2014 GMACE test run determines which changes can be implemented in both the April and August runs the publication policy adopted by participating countries must reflect the national policy to be adopted in both following runs.
    1. Status of bull = 10 (AI bull)
    2. Publication status = Y (bull meets the national standards for official publication

Official adoption of GMACE

Because the February 2014 GMACE test run is the first official run adopting the method MP.5, the SC has decided that the April 2014 GMACE run will also be considered as an implementation run. These are the features of implementation runs:

  • Implementation runs are Interbull evaluations used to introduce a completely new procedure into service and serves as a transition between a successful test run and the first official routine run using the introduced change in the services.
  • Implementation runs follow the same calendar, turnaround time and distribution policy as the official routine runs that will adopt the procedure implemented afterwards.
  • Publication of implementation runs results in national scales is facultative and should follow the national strategy to communicate the changes introduced internally.
  • Service users that decide to publish implementation run results must indicate that GMACE values are from an implementation run.

The SC also decided that the August 2014 GMACE run will be the first GMACE routine run, unless major technical impediments happen to occur.
For publication of the results from implementation runs and routine runs please see: CoP Appendix V: Publication guidelines
Considering the considerable resources already applied into GMACE runs, the SC has decided to keep the service fee update for 2014 as previously proposed (SC Executive Summary – Jan 2014).

2014 ICAR/Interbull Conference

The 2014 Interbull Meeting will be held in conjunction with the 39th ICAR Session and the IDF/ISO Analytical Week in Berlin, Germany. The early bird registration is February 16, 2014 and the call for titles for the Interbull Open sessions is open until March 16, 2014. More details in the EVENT PAGE.

2014 Interbull Meeting

The 2014 Interbull Meeting will be held in conjunction with the 39th ICAR Session and the IDF/ISO Analytical Week in Berlin, Germany.

The Interbull annual meeting is the leading event for research on bovine genetic and genomic national and international evaluations and some 200 scientists and industry representatives from 35 countries are expected to attend. The 2014 ICAR/INTERBULL Conference is organized by the German Cattle Breeders’ Federation (ADR).

The venue for the meeting will be The Estrel Berlin Hotel & Convention Center, situated at Sonnenallee 225, 12057 Berlin.


Registration to the 2013 Interbull Meeting:

Registration should be made using the following link: http://www.icar2014.de/

Deadlines: Type of registration

Interbull only (€)

Interbull+ICAR (€)

Early bird – until 2014/02/16

Participant

280

600

Accompanying person

150

360

Regular (2014/02/17 – 2014/03/31) Participant

330

720

Accompanying person

180

420

Late (2014/04/01 – 2014/05/07) Participant

430

850

Accompanying person

180

480

 


Interbull Open Sessions:

Interbull open sessions will include scientific reports related to the following themes:
  • Advances in genomic selection
  • National and international genetic evaluations
Interested authors are expected to submit a title for their reports until Mar 16, 2014 using the ONLINE FORM available at the Interbull webpage.

Program:

Please, check the program at http://www.icar2014.de/.

Groundbreaking Collaboration Improves Genomic Selection for the Jersey Breed

U.S JerseyWorking together to improve genomic evaluations for Jersey breeders across the United States and Canada, the American Jersey Cattle Association (AJCA), the Cooperative Dairy DNA Repository (CDDR) represented by National Association of Animal Breeders (NAAB), and Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) have increased the North American Jersey database of genotypes on proven bulls by more than 1,100 through an exchange of Jersey genotypes with Scandinavian-based Viking Genetics. The reliability of genomic predictions increased 1.8%.

The formation of the CDDR by six U.S. and one Canadian A.I. center almost 20 years ago provided the sire DNA which enabled research by the Agriculture Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (ARS USDA), the University of Guelph, and CDN that resulted in genomic predictions now being utilized by dairy producers in both countries.

The new agreement establishes an ongoing exchange of genotypes for progeny-proven bulls in North America and Scandinavia. This groundbreaking agreement will further enhance selection programs aimed at maximizing genetic potential while maintaining genetic diversity.

The agreement is the culmination of several years of collaboration between the CDDR, AJCA, and CDN to define exchange terms with Viking Genetics. Gordon Doak, President of NAAB comments, “It is a great step forward to finalize a collaboration agreement with Viking Genetics. Together we represent the two largest Jersey breeding programs in the world and the agreement represents a huge opportunity to enhance the development of Jersey breeding.” Agrees Neal Smith, Executive Secretary of AJCA, “This is a great opportunity for Jersey breeders around the world to benefit from sharing information to improve the Jersey cow.”

The American Jersey Cattle Association, based in Reynoldsburg, Ohio, is the largest Jersey registry association in the world and represents more than 2,300 active members. The National Association of Animal Breeders, based in Columbia, Mo., represented the CDDR, whose aim is to improve the accuracy and reliability of genomic evaluations for the benefit of breeders in the U.S. and Canada.

Groundbreaking collaboration improves genomic selection for the Jersey breed

Working together to improve genomic evaluations for Jersey breeders across Canada and the United States, Canadian Dairy Network (CDN), with Jersey Canada as one of its members, the Cooperative Dairy DNA Repository (CDDR), represented by the National Association of Animal Breeders (NAAB), and the American Jersey Cattle Association (AJCA) have increased the North American Jersey database of genotypes on proven bulls by more than 1,100 through an exchange of Jersey genotypes with Scandinavian based Viking Genetics. The reliability of genomic evaluations increased 1.8% in the United States with similar gains expected in Canada due to the 46% increase in the size of the Jersey reference population for genomics.

The formation of the CDDR by six U.S. and one Canadian A.I. center almost 20 years ago provided the sire DNA that enabled research by CDN, the University of Guelph and the Agriculture Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (ARS USDA), which resulted in genomic evaluations now being utilized by dairy producers in both countries.

The new agreement establishes an ongoing exchange of genotypes for progeny proven Jersey bulls in North America and Scandinavia. This groundbreaking agreement will further enhance selection programs aimed at maximizing genetic potential while maintaining genetic diversity.

The agreement is the culmination of several years of collaboration between CDN, the CDDR and the Jersey associations in each country to define exchange terms with Viking Genetics. Gary Bowers, Chairman of CDN comments: “Given the Jersey population size in Canada and other countries, this exchange agreement with Viking Genetics is a positive example of the international collaboration that is required to improve Jersey cattle in this era of genomics.” Agrees Kathryn Kyle, General Manager of Jersey Canada, “This is a great opportunity for Jersey breeders in Canada to increase the benefit of genotyping their animals to maximize genetic improvement in their herd.”

Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) is the national genetic evaluation centre for dairy cattle and provides services to Canadian dairy producers and member organizations including breed associations, DHI agencies, A.I. organizations and Dairy Farmers of Canada. Jersey Canada, based in Guelph, Ontario, is the second largest and fastest growing breed association in Canada with over 1,000 members. The National Association of Animal Breeders, based in Columbia, MO, USA represented the CDDR in this agreement whose aim is to improve the accuracy and reliability of genomic evaluations for the benefit of breeders in Canada and the United States.

For more information, please contact:

Brian Van Doormaal
General Manager Canadian Dairy Network

Impact of Genomics on Genetic Selection and Gain

2014 marks five years since the implementation of genomics in Canada and has the world of genetic improvement ever changed! Genomics was boasted by scientists as a technology that would revolutionize genetic improvement strategies and significantly increase rates of genetic improvement. To take a closer look at the impact of genomics on genetic selection in Canada, one approach is to assess changes on each component affecting genetic progress in dairy cattle selection.

Rate of Genetic Gain

There are four key factors that affect the rate of genetic progress achieved by various selection strategies. These include:

  • The intensity of selection, which is measured by the proportion of the population that is used as parents of the next generation,
  • The accuracy of selection, which is usually measured by the average Reliability of genetic evaluations used to make decisions about parents of the next generation of animals,
  • The degree of genetic variability that exists in the population for each trait of interest, which would not be significantly affected in only five years, and
  • The generation interval, which is measured by the average age of the parents when the next generation is born.

When assessing each of these components of genetic progress realized in a breed, there are four pathways of selection to be considered, of which the selection of sires and dams of future A.I. young sires are the two most influential. At the herd level, it is the producer’s selection of sires to be used that has traditionally been responsible for about 90% of the genetic progress achieved. Genomics does, however, offer producers more opportunity to select the parents of future replacement heifers, especially in conjunction with the use of reproductive technologies such as sexed semen and/or embryo transfer.

Intensity of Selection

A critical and major shift that has taken place due to the arrival of genomics is the ability for A.I. organizations to genotype potential young bull candidates prior to any decision to purchase for semen collection. As shown in Figure 1, this new pre-selection step became available for young bull candidates born in 2008, at which time roughly 5,000 young bulls were genotyped as a tool to identify a group of approximately 2,000 that were eventually purchased for A.I. in North America. Nowadays, for bulls born in 2013, more than 29,000 are expected to be genotyped and roughly 2,000 are expected to be purchased by an A.I. organization: a ratio of nearly 1 in 15!

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Accuracy of Selection

In terms of improvement in the accuracy of selection decisions, there are two areas where genomics has had a significant impact. Firstly, the average Reliability of genetic evaluations available for genotyped young bulls and heifers has almost doubled compared to using Parent Average alone. For genomic young bulls that are sons of a genomic young sire, rather than a progeny proven sire, the gain in Reliability over Parent Average is slightly reduced to 30%, instead of 33%, to reach an average Reliability of 66% for LPI in Holsteins. Secondly, for progeny proven sires, genomics has significantly improved the accuracy of evaluations for traits with low heritability, namely Herd Life, Daughter Calving Ability, and Daughter Fertility.

Generation Interval

Not only has genomics allowed for the pre-screening of potential young bulls for entry into A.I., as shown in Figure 1, but the increased accuracy of evaluations for genotyped young bulls, heifers and cows has turned the focus of selection decisions to younger animals. Figure 2 shows the trend in the average age of parents of genotyped Holstein bulls by year of birth. For bulls born prior to 2009, which was before genomic evaluations were official in North America, the average age of sires being considered for entry into A.I. was over 6 years, while their dams averaged about 4 years of age. For genotyped young bull candidates born in 2013, the average age of their sire reached 3 years (i.e.: 55% reduction) and the age of their dams reduced by 25% to also equal 3 years.

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Proven Versus Young Sires

A key outcome of genomics has been an expected attraction by producers toward genomic young sires with a corresponding reduction in usage of proven sire semen. Part of this attraction stems from the superior level of genetic potential being offered to producers interested in using genomic young sires. In fact, prior to genomics, the average LPI of young sires entering A.I. was increasing, on average, by 92 points per year, which has now increased to 160 LPI points per year for bulls born since 2009. Prior to genomics, young sire semen occupied less than 40% of the market share with progeny proven sires representing the main A.I. product of interest to producers. After an initial spike in usage of genomic young sires in 2010, there has been a continuous increase in interest towards this category of A.I. sire, which surpassed 51% of the market share in 2013 (Figure 3). In fact, for every month since May 2013, over 50% of Holstein inseminations in Canada have been done using semen from genomic young sires.

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Summary

Achieving genetic progress in any breed of dairy cattle requires balancing selection intensity and accuracy with generation interval without having a negative impact of genetic variability. For decades past this was done by efficient young sire proving programs aimed at identifying elite sires once they were progeny proven at 5 years of age and subsequently using them as sires of the next generation of replacement heifers and young bulls entering A.I. With the arrival of genomic evaluations in 2009, this traditional, well-proven strategy has changed. Thanks to genomics, tens of thousands of candidate young bulls are now being genotyped each year, of
which one in 15 are currently being selected for entry into A.I. based on genetic evaluations that have Reliability levels almost doubled compared to Parent Average alone. This pre-selection step using genomics has contributed to the superior genetic level of young sires offered to producers, which continues to increase every year at a faster rate than before. The use of younger parents, including unproven genomic young bulls as well as genotyped heifers and young cows, to produce the next generation of A.I. young sires is also an important factor contributing to the increased rates of genetic progress achieved to date. Simply stated, genomics has already had a major impact on genetic selection decisions taken by A.I. organizations and this, in turn, has translated into an increased attraction towards genomic young sires that now occupy more than 50% of the market share in Canada.

Source: Canadian Dairy Network

She Ain’t Pretty – She Just Milks That Way!

For years there has been great debate between dairy breeders and producers about what type of cow is the most profitable.  There are sound arguments on both sides of this issue.  However, developments arising from new indexes and analysis highlight that it’s not always the prettiest cow that milks the most over her lifetime.  To paraphrase the popular song, these cows prove that “She ain’t pretty, she just milks that way!”

Are show cows great lifetime milk producers?

We are all guilty of it.  We see the cows that win at World Dairy Expo, The Royal, Swiss Expo, and IDW and are amazed at their extreme size, capacity, and dairy strength. We look at them as the epitome of what the ideal cow looks like.  And it’s fair to say that the production level of these animals has greatly improved over the past 30 years.  However ask any commercial producer in a large free stall environment and they would tell you that these winners would not be the ideal cow for their operation or to maximize their revenues.  The very characteristics that make them great in the showring (their massive size especially) would limit their efficiency for these producers.  (Side note: With dropping sale prices show cows and especially high index cows are not bringing the same resale value as they once did – Read more:  An Insider’s Guide to What Sells at the Big Dairy Cattle Auctions 2013).

Now here at the Bullvine we like to deal in facts not hearsay.  So we took the top 10 animals from the Mature Cow Class at the 2013 Royal and here is what we found.  They average an amazing 95 points with a couple even going Excellent multiple times.  The scarier part is that they only average 2.5 complete lactations each, out of a possible 4, and just over 50,000 kgs of lifetime production.  With the winner of the class, having out of three lactations started only completed 2 by 7 years of age and produced under 48,000 lifetime.  Now some would say, “Yes that is because all the big producers are in the Lifetime Production Class.”  So we decided to take a look at that class as well.  Surprisingly this class averaged a slightly lower 94 points, and just over 3.5 completed lactations each, out of a possible 5, and 61,647 kgs.  of lifetime production.  Not exactly extreme for a class that is supposed to be the epitome of the breed.  However there was one strong exception in the class, STARBRITE LYSTER LYNDSAY, who at EX-96-3E, with 5 completed lactations and 84,282 kgs (185,808 lbs.) of lifetime production, certainly is a testament to longevity.  That is probably why she is a perennial contender and a huge fan favorite.

STARBRITE LYSTER LYNDSAY EX-96-3E-CAN
84,282 kgs (185,808 lbs.) of lifetime production,

Are high scoring 2 year olds good lifetime producers?

Then of course there is type classification and the true type model.  Believing in full disclosure, we here at the Bullvine are big fans of the type classification system (Probably because my father ran the Canadian Type Classification and Breed Improvement Program, for 18 years in the 70’s and 80’s) and have written many articles about it (Read more: TOM BYERS: “THAT’S CLASSIFIED!” and Is Type Classification Still Important?). But more and more we are beginning to question some of the long standing beliefs that we have had relating to type classification and longevity.

There is no doubt that the goal of the type classification system is to produce a long lasting profitable cow.  What is becoming more apparent is that what we believed it took to achieve that may not have been functionally correct.

Now it would not be fair to make a blanket statement like that, nor would it be Bullvine style, if we did not back that up with cold hard numbers and examples.  I cannot think of a better example than, GILLETTE E SMURF, the world record holder for lifetime production at 242,303 kgs (534,181 lbs) in 11 lactations.  (Read more:  World Records Are Not Only Set at the Olympics).  As a two-year-old Smurf scored GP-83, with Dairy Strength (82) and Feet & Legs (80).  These two the traits kept her from going VG.  What makes this surprising is those are the two exact traits that many believe are the greatest indicators of longevity.  Yet the greatest producing cow in the world was deemed to be lacking in those areas.  In fact it was not until 10th lactation and over 216,893 kgs of lifetime production that the classifier deemed that Smurf had enough strength (97) and sound enough legs (86) to make her an excellent cow.

GILLETTE E SMURF EX-91-2E-CAN 242303kgs (534181 lbs) of lifetime production

Now as we always say it is easy to find case by case examples.  But do the numbers hold up across multiple animals and larger groups?  We decided to look at all the VG-89-2yr olds from January 1st 2007 to December 31st 2010.  In that time there were 20 VG-89 1st lactation cows that have remained in Canada.  60% of them have gone on to classify Excellent, with the group now averaging 91 points.  The alarming part is that, as a group, they have completed on average 2 lactations each out of a possible 4, with lifetime production averaging 42,262 kgs.  In fact only 30% of them have even completed a 3rd lactation.  That percentage is even less than that of the mature cow class at this year’s Royal.  Achieving VG89 first lactation certainly is not a good predictor of lifetime production. In analyzing the US numbers we found similar results.

So what is a good predictor of lifetime production?

We all have in our mind what the ideal mature cow looks like.  For many pedigree breeders it’s a cow that looks like this. (Read more: The Perfect Holstein Cow)

Mature Cow - composite background

In taking that one step further, we also did a composite of what the perfect classification 2 year old would look like.

2year old - composite background

But in reality, as we have mentioned earlier in this article, these cows are not the epitome of lifetime production animals.  In fact they are not even bull mothers.  Currently the typical ideal high genomic 2 year old/bull mother looks like this.

genomic 2 year old - composite background

But in analyzing the numbers, especially productive life and herd life, the true ideal 2 year old should look something like this.

efficient 2 year old - composite background

First, let’s make one thing clear.  Unlike indexes like TPITM and LPI that try to predict lifetime production based on hypothesis and our understanding of what we think it takes to make a long lived productive cow, productive life (USA), and herd life (CAN)  measure actual longevity.  They measure how many months the cow actually is a productive member of the herd compared to herd mates.

This means that our long-accepted theories that a cow needed to have a wide muzzle, deep chest, and deep sweeping open rib in order to be a high lifetime producer are actually incorrect.  As we pointed out in Breeding for Longevity:  Don’t believe the hype – It’s more than just high type, the top 25 productive life proven sires in the Dec’13 genetic evaluations actually average only 0.52 for Dairy Character and 0.47 for Body Composite.

This actually makes sense.  When you look at the top two reasons given for non-dairy purposes sales, infertility and mastitis, they account for almost double (26.9%) the number of animals culled for production or conformation reasons (18.5%).  Basically we learn that, when it comes to predicting longevity, there are many contributing beyond conformation.

That is why it’s not surprising when we interviewed Don Bennink of North Florida Holsteins, a very commercial production oriented breeding program, type and conformation where not even on his list of selection requirements.  (Read more:  NORTH FLORIDA HOLSTEINS. Aggressive, Progressive and Profitable!!).  In fact if you really want to break down the numbers into the nuts and bolts simplicity, you would only look at two things.  In the US that would be pounds of milk production (with some allowance for %F) and productive life.  In Canada that would be kilograms of milk production and herd life.

So here at the Bullvine we like to complete the steps for you.  We looked at all the proven sires who are over 1250 lbs of milk and 5 for productive life.  The results were very telling. There were 40 sires that made this list, with the top 6 reading like a who’s who of top selling sires, Bookem, Freddie, Robust, AltaMeteor, Shamrock, and Observer.  Also it is interesting to note that these sires average 2.77 SCS, 6 CE, 1.33 PTAT, 1.23 UDC, 1.23 FL&C and 2026 TPI.

NameFinal ScoreOwner
COOKIECUTTER MOM HALO-ET88Cookiecutter Holsteins
MSWELCOME OBSERVER LAURI-ET88Welcome Stock Farm, LLC & Charles Van Wie
ROSE-LYN MARCONI CONFETTI88Wallace A. Behnke
HY-NIC-HOL TRYOUT STAR88Ryan L. Lindenmeyer
FISCHERDALE CASABLANCA88Elizabeth Sarbacker
WILLOWS-EDGE GOLD IMAGE-ET88Hendrik W. Van Dyk
WILLOWS-EDGE CARISMA LYRIC88Jordan & Claire Van Dyk
ERBACRES AD LACROSSE-RED88Carla Kay Erbsen
GLORYLAND DELLA RAE-ET88David A Tait & Hood Holsteins
WILLOWS-EDGE DURHAM ISLE-ET88Hendrik W. Van Dyk
WILLOWS-EDGE MAC FROSTING88Hendrik W. Van Dyk
WILLOWS-EDGE SANCHEZ MAGGIE88Jordan A. Van Dyk
RICECREST AFTERSHOCK AMELIA88Dale E. & Fred E. Rice
POTTSDALE SANCHEZ RHEYA88Hayley Lynn Potts
OPSAL DENTON BEAUTIFUL88Joshua T & Joseph T Opsal
MARKWELL ATWOOD FANTASIA88Kody J. & Kyle R. Tiemersma
MOR-YET GOLDWYN FAITHFUL-ET88Todd Galton
QUIETCOVE-W FUTURITY-ET88Quietcove-Wapa Farms LLC
CLEAR-ECHO SUPER 2140-ET88Clear Echo Farm LLC
CLAQUATO SANCHEZ ROSALIE-ET88Claquato Farms, Inc.
HARVUE ATWOOD FOX-ET88David Meade Hardesty, Jr.
GOLDEN-OAKS CHARDONNAY-ET88Brianna Sheehan
GOLDEN-OAKS GWYN CLASSY-ET88Kings-Ransom Farm LLC
HOLBRIC DESTRY ANALIESE88Morgan Olbrich
WINDY-KNOLL-VIEW POCONOS-ET88James R. & Nina P. Burdette
WINDY-KNOLL-VIEW PERFECT-ET88James R. & Nina P. Burdette
VANDYK-S BALTIMOR ROCKLYN88VanDyk-S Holsteins
COOKIECUTTER BOWS HOMONY-ET87Clear Echo Farm LLC
MS JENNYLOU SHTL LIDEBBI-ET87Mystic Valley Dairy LLC
OAKFIELD-BRO AT FANATSY-ET87Denise V. Saxton
OAKFIELD-BRO AT FINANCE-ET87Adam J King
OAKFIELD SANCHEZ DAZZLE-ET87Jonathan Lamb
COOKIECUTTER MM HALLMARK-ET87John J. Dickinson
WELCOME DOMAIN FANTASIA-ET87Welcome Stock Farm, LLC
WELCOME ELITE PEONY-ET87Welcome Stock Farm, LLC
MS WELCOME MANOMAN CASE87Welcome Stock Farm, LLC
WELCOME BRONCO PERNELLE-ET87Welcome Stock Farm, LLC
SAVAGE-LEIGH MAZEY-RED-ET87James R. & Nina P. Burdette
BELLTONE GOLD STAR LEE IV-ET87Kevin Doeberiener,PierreBoulet & Michael Heath
ERBACRES ADVENT MUFFIN87Nathan C P Erbsen
SUPER-K FORTUNE BONITA87Valerie L. Greco & Ronald J. Mikulice
VANDYK-K PRINCESS-RED-ET87Van Dyk-K Holsteins
WILLOWS-EDGE DUR VALEEN-ET87Hendrik W. Van Dyk
GEORGETOWN SAN LIMELIGHT87Chris & Stephanie George
MIL-R-MOR FANCY FABULOUS-ET87Sarah Elizabeth Sheehan
JANNEY CIMARON HAZYL87James & LaVaun Janney
SILDAHL AWESOME-RED87Fred Schoenbachler
SWAINDALE RDLINR CHARRO-RED87Gary R. Swain
SWAINDALE RDLINR GODIVA-RED87Gary R. Swain
LAKE-EFFECT DUR WREN-ET87Jeffrey & Gayle Benedict
ROSE-EDGE B PASTA-ET87Ernest H Jr & Carol W Ambler
SCHA-TJ CNTNDR SHAWNA-RED87Todd & Jean Pollema
KENWAN AMBROSIA JADA87Ken-Wan Farm
MS JOLEANNA ABSOL APPLE-RED87Cooper Galton
WILLOWS-EDGE GOLD INFORM-ET87Hendrik W. Van Dyk
WILLOWS-EDGE R LOU MYRA-RED87Claire M. Van Dyk
ROCK-N-HILL-II CRANBERRY87Michael & Chris McCullough
GLORYLAND-LR LADA RAE-RED87David A. Tait
GUNDYS AFTERSHOCK ACE-ET87Robert Gunderson
MS L-MAPLES-BO SG DURHAM 4687Jenna M Langer
VANDYK-K GRAYBIL PASTEL87Van Dyk-K Holsteins
KIKO GABOR RAPTURE 68587R & P Kiko Family Farms, Ltd
QUIET-MAN ALEX LOVELY-ET87Buttke Dairy Enterprises
QUIET-MAN ALEX LUSCIOUS-ET87Jeff Spence
DEMMERS SANCHEZ GAYLA87Demmer Farms
KLINGENDALE HVEZDA POKER87John Klingensmith
KIKO DAMION VINA 66387R & P Kiko Family Farms, Ltd
LIDA-ACRES MARC ATLEE87Maria D. Johnson
SILENT-STAR ALXDER A-JUDY87Lance Slotten
PARADISE-R AFS GRACE 459487Paradise Valley Farms, Inc.
OPSAL DESTRY MARCELLA-RED87Joshua, Joseph & Felicia Opsal
SRP ABSOLUTE FURY-RED-ET87Melarry Farms
SRP DESTRY FROLIC-RED-ET87John P. & Rachael Holmgren
MS BLONDIN JASPER BELLE-ET87Brad Stockman & Adam G Johnson
MARKWELL AFTERSHOCK STAR87Kody J. & Kyle R. Tiemersma
KELLERCREST SANCHEZ SHELLY87Kimberly Keller
NOBLAND ALFREDO ATLAS87Troy Noble
LORAWAE SANCHEZ HEATHER87John S. Lora
KINYON GOLDWYN PASTA87Martin Kinyon
WEST-LAKE SS WENDY-RED87West-Lake Holsteins
WEST-LAKE ADVENT RILEY-RED87West-Lake Holsteins
HARVUE HERSHEY MINT87John O. Hardesty & Sons
HARVUE BLITZ GLITZ87John O. Hardesty & Sons
HARVUE GOLDWYN FOXY LADY-ET87Matthew C. Hardesty
HARVUE ATWOOD VIDA87David M. & Debra L. Hardesty
MILKSOURCE ADVENT ESTHER-ET87Eva Doornink
JHAHNWAY DUSK PEGGYS TRINA87Justin E. Hahn
MELARRY SANCHEZ FONDA-ET87Melarry Farms
HOLBRIC MINISTER FRANNY87Brian & Mark Olbrich
HOSTO SS HILLROBIN87Kelley L. & Ruth Ann Hosto
WHITELEATHER ALEXAND 169387Lauren G. Whiteleather
VANDYK-S BRAXTON ELISHA87VanDyk-S Holsteins
VANDYK-S CHELIOS MALEAH87VanDyk-S Holsteins
ROCKING-P SANCHEZ ELLEN-ET87Kelsey Patten
HOLMGREN TRIUMPHANT DI-ET87John P. & Rachael Holmgren
MS MILKSOURCE GOLDWYN FANCY87Jordan & Claire Van Dyk
MS ANGELINA ANGASHOCK-ET87Claquato Farms Inc. & Robin-Hood Holsteins
SIEMERS SANCHEZ HAPPYGAL-ET87Spencer Michael Weimer
SIEMERS ATW HILDALICIOUS-ET87Joshua T & Joseph T Opsal
SCH-GER ATWOOD ELYSE87Brett Morlock & Ken Gerber

 

Now for those of you who are wanting to push the genomic envelope, we did the same analysis, though factoring in the typical genomic over prediction of about 20% (Read more:  How Much Can You Trust Genomic Young Sires?).  Our requirements were 1,500 lbs of milk and 7.2 for productive life.

NameClassScoreSire NameOwner(s)PROV
BERGEROY GOLDWYN LANIKVG87BRAEDALE GOLDWYNBERGEROY HOLSTEIN INCPQ
BUNCLODY ALFREDO DANNIVG87LESPERRON ALFREDOFRED FORNWALD & SONS FARMS LTDSK
BUTZ-BUTLER SAN BETTY-ETVG87GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZFERME LAITIERE RAYON D'OR INCPQ
CLOVIS JASPER RAZIAVG87WILCOXVIEW JASPER-ETCLOVIS HOLSTEIN INCPQ
COMESTAR JASPER ALANYSVG87WILCOXVIEW JASPER-ETCOMESTAR HOLSTEINPQ
COMESTAR LAUTELLIAM SANCHEZVG87GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZCOMESTAR HOLSTEINPQ
COMESTAR MILANA JASPERVG87WILCOXVIEW JASPER-ETCOMESTAR HOLSTEINPQ
COMESTAR PIMPANTE GOLDWYNVG87BRAEDALE GOLDWYNCOMESTAR HOLSTEINPQ
CRAIGCREST LAURIN ECSTATICVG87DEN-K MARSHALL LL LAURINCRAIGCREST HOLSTEINSON
CYJOHN LOYAL C9369VG87BRYHILL LOYALFERME KAMLAKEPQ
DELABERGE OMAN DOLLMISSVG87LONG-LANGS OMAN OMAN-ETFERME BERGELAIT INCPQ
DULET ARMSTEAD KIM 3VG87DIAMOND-OAK ARMSTEAD-ETFERME DULET INCPQ
FAMIPAGE SHAQUILLE IDELUSTREVG87DESLACS SHAQUILLEFERME FAMIPAGE INCPQ
FLEURY GEN SANCHEZ LIZIEVG87GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZLOOKOUT HOLSTEINSPQ
GREGORI MAN O MAN SORISIAVG87LONG-LANGS OMAN OMAN-ETFERME U. GREGOIRE & FILS INCPQ
HARDY GOLD DIAMONDVG87BRAEDALE GOLDWYNDONALD DUBOISPQ
HOLYWELL ATWOOD POCKETVG87MAPLE-DOWNS-I G W ATWOODHOLYWELL HOLSTEINSON
HOLZER MIRANDA AFTSHOCKVG87MS ATLEES SHT AFTERSHOCK-ETBUSHY VIEWON
HOLZER MYSTRI SHOCKVG87MS ATLEES SHT AFTERSHOCK-ETBUSHY VIEWON
JEANLU ALEXANDER SMOOTHIESVG87GOLDEN-OAKS ST ALEXANDER-ETFERME TELEFILS ENRPQ
LAFONTAINE ATWOOD METALLICAVG87MAPLE-DOWNS-I G W ATWOODFERME LAFONTAINEPQ
LAFONTAINE MISCHIEF CHOICEVG87LUNCREST MISCHIEF SHOT 2-ETFERME LAFONTAINEPQ
LAMPADA SHOCKWAVE EVETTEVG87LAMPADA LHEROS SHOCKWAVEFRED FORNWALD & SONS FARMS LTDSK
LEGACY JASPER GABEVG87WILCOXVIEW JASPER-ETSTEPHEN DOLSON & DR. KAREN GALBRAITHON
MAYBLOSSOM SHOTTLE DEVARY 812VG87PICSTON SHOTTLE-ETMAYBLOSSOM FARMSON
MILIBRO ATLAS PRISSYVG87MD-DELIGHT DURHAM ATLAS-ETFERME MILIBRO INCPQ
MILIBRO ATWOOD MIGNONNEVG87MAPLE-DOWNS-I G W ATWOODFERME MILIBRO INCPQ
NEUDAY SANCHEZ PRISCILLAVG87GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZBENBIE HOLSTEINS LTDSK
PDF SANCHEZ SUMMERVG87GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZPRAIRIE DIAMOND FARMSK
RAYON D'OR SHOTTLE OPRUNELLEVG87PICSTON SHOTTLE-ETFERME LAITIERE RAYON D'OR INCPQ
ROTALY GOLDWYN OMBRELLAVG87BRAEDALE GOLDWYNROCK HEBERT & NATHALIE DUMAISPQ
ROTALY MILLION MACADAMVG87ENGLAND-AMMON MILLION-ETROCK HEBERT & NATHALIE DUMAISPQ
SELEXIE MATRICIE DUPLEXVG87MESLAND DUPLEX-ETMICHEL LARRIVEEPQ
SMITHDEN GOLDWYN BREEZYVG87BRAEDALE GOLDWYNCORMDALE GENETICS INCON
SMITHDEN GOLDWYN BUBBLESVG87BRAEDALE GOLDWYNSMITHDEN HOLSTEINS INCON
SMYGWATYS SANCHEZ EMMAVG87GEN-MARK STMATIC SANCHEZCLARKVALLEY HOLSTEINSON
STONYWAY AFTERSHOCK NAHANAVG87MS ATLEES SHT AFTERSHOCK-ETPIERRE BOULETPQ
SWISSKESS SHOTTLE RUBYNVG87PICSTON SHOTTLE-ETSWISSKESS INCPQ
VERTDOR SHOTTLE MAYAVG87PICSTON SHOTTLE-ETFERME VERT D'OR INCPQ

 

The Bullvine Bottom Line

Any way you look at it, it’s hard to argue with the cold hard facts.  For years the show ring and type classification have tried to do the best job possible in predicting what it take to produce a long lived productive cow.  But just like the evolution of the computer, healthcare and science, as more information becomes available, we find that some of our previous beliefs are no longer accurate.  In no way am I saying that there is not value in programs like type classification, it is just time for those programs to evolve and do a more accurate job of predicting longevity.  (Read more:  What is the role of dairy cattle breed associations?) As the numbers show, today’s longed lived productive cow, may not look that pretty, but she sure milks that way.

Want to learn more about his? Andrew Hunt will be presenting at Canadian Dairy Expo on February 5th.

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