Breeding Strategy

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Archive for Breeding Strategy

Holstein Inbreeding Hit 9.99%. Birkstead and North Florida Found Two Ways to Stop the $100-Per-Cow Leak.

Friday, March 6th, 2026

Holstein inbreeding hit 9.99%. Birkstead and North Florida took opposite paths to slash a $60–$ 100-per-cow leak without sacrificing genetic progress.

Executive Summary: Holstein heifers born in 2024 now average 9.99% inbreeding, and conservative barn‑math from peer‑reviewed studies puts the cost at roughly $60–$100 per cow per lactation. The article shows how that hit comes together — a little lost milk and protein, a few extra days open, shorter productive life — and why recent inbreeding does more damage than old pedigree overlap. It then uses two real herds as case studies: Birkstead Holsteins in Ontario, which pushed a 20% pregnancy rate higher and cut health problems by moving to a Holstein × Norwegian Red × Montbéliarde/Fleckvieh cross, and North Florida Holsteins, which stayed pure Holstein but built its own profit‑first index and capped how much any single bull could influence the herd. The core argument is that the real risk isn’t genomics itself, but letting catalog rankings quietly stack the same sire lines until inbreeding becomes a five‑figure annual leak. For a 300–600‑cow herd, the piece lays out a simple playbook: in the next 30 days, turn on and enforce an inbreeding ceiling in your mating program, over the next 90 days build a genuinely diverse bull team, and over the next breeding season stop raising replacements from the most inbred, lowest‑merit females. It’s written for owners and breeding decision‑makers who want to keep riding the top of the genetics wave without paying for 9.99% inbreeding on every proof run.

Canadian Holstein heifers born in 2024 now average 9.99% inbreeding, according to Lactanet’s August 2025 inbreeding update. That’s up from 9.61% the year before and the highest among the major dairy breeds in Canada. On paper, it’s just another number. In the barn, it’s the cows that don’t settle, don’t handle stress, and don’t stick around long enough to pay off their raising cost.

Thomas Wantenaar at Birkstead Holsteins in Elora, Ontario, was already seeing that drag in his own herd numbers. In 2008, with a purebred Holstein herd and a new robot barn, he was staring at an annual pregnancy rate of about 20% and, as he told Progressive Dairy, “spending half the morning just treating cows.” A thousand miles south at North Florida Holsteins, Don Bennink was looking at the same breed from the other end of the telescope: about 4,800 cows and 4,400 heifers on roughly 2,400 acres in Florida heat, and a classification and type evaluation system he publicly described as “180 degrees away from cattle that pay the bills.”

Neither herd was willing to let inbreeding dictate its future. One changed how it used Holstein genetics. The other changed the cows.

How Much Does 1% of Holstein Inbreeding Really Cost Per Cow?

You’ve heard for years that inbreeding costs money. That doesn’t help when you’re trying to decide whether one more high‑index bull out of the same sire line is worth it.

Lactanet and other summaries estimate that every 1% increase in inbreeding knocks roughly $60–$78 off a cow’s lifetime profit, once you add up lost milk, weaker fertility, and fewer productive days. Makanjuola and colleagues (2020) put a finer point on it for Canadian Holsteins: each 1% increase in genomic inbreeding cut 305‑day first‑lactation milk yield by about 40–50 kg. At typical Canadian milk prices, that’s over $40 per cow per lactationfrom milk volume alone.

That’s still fairly abstract. The real question is: if your herd is, say, 2 percentage points more inbred than you’d like, what’s the per‑cow, per‑lactation hit?

Step 1: Define “excess inbreeding”

Suppose you’d be comfortable with a herd average around 7.5% inbreeding. Instead, your young stock are coming in around 9.5%, which isn’t unusual given where Holsteins are heading. That’s 2 percentage points of excess inbreedingcompared with the level you’d like to be at.

Step 2: Milk and protein that never make it onto the truck

Doekes et al. (2019) and Makanjuola (2020) both found that each 1% increase in inbreeding reduced 305‑day milk by roughly 36–49 kg (80–108 lb). To stay conservative and easy to work with, call that about 100 lb of milk per 1%.

At 2 excess points: ~200 lb less milk per cow per lactation.
At $20/cwt: 200 ÷ 100 × $20 = $40 per cow per lactation from milk.

StrataGEN work suggests about 25 lb lifetime protein loss per 1% inbreeding, which averages out to roughly 6–7 lb per lactation. Use 6 lb per 1%.

At 2 excess points: 12 lb less protein per lactation.
At $3.50/lb: 12 × $3.50 = $42 per cow per lactation from protein.

Right there, you’re at around $82 per cow per lactation in very basic, conservative component math.

Step 3: Days open that hide inside your repro numbers

Genetic and economic work often uses about 1 extra day open per 1% inbreeding as a planning number, once you account for later first service, lower conception rates, and early embryonic loss. It’s not a hard rule, but it’s a realistic average.

At 2 excess points: assume 2.5 extra days open.
At $4 per day open (mid‑range of common $3–$5 estimates): 2.5 × $4 = $10 per cow per lactation.

You can argue the exact cost per day. You can’t honestly argue that it’s zero.

Step 4: Productive life and replacements

StrataGEN data show about 13 fewer productive days per 1% inbreeding; at 2 excess points, that’s around 26 fewer productive days in that cow’s lifetime.

Spread across a cow you expect to last around 3½ lactations, that’s about 7–8 fewer productive days per lactation. Put a conservative $10 per cow per lactation value on that in terms of extra replacement pressure, fewer older “easy money” cows, and more fresh‑heifer risk.

Step 5: Put the conservative math together

Conservative totals on 2 points of excess inbreeding per cow, per lactation:

Milk loss: ~$40
Protein loss: ~$42
Extra days open: ~$10
Shorter productive life/replacements: ~$10

That’s roughly $100 per cow per lactation.

Loss Category	Impact per 1% Inbreeding	Cost at 2% “Excess” (per lactation)
Milk Yield	~100 lb	$40.00
Protein	~6 lb	$42.00
Fertility (Days Open)	1.25 Days	$10.00
Productive Life	13 Days (Lifetime)	$10.00
ESTIMATED TOTAL		$102.00 per cow

If you squeeze every assumption down to the low end and ignore some of the lifetime effects, you can justify a smaller number in the $60–$70 per cow range. If you take the upper end of the published production losses and value days open closer to $5, you can also defend numbers over $100 without exaggerating.

Either way, on a 300‑cow milking herd, even a $60 per cow leak is around $18,000 per year until your mating strategy changes. On a 500‑cow herd, you’re looking at $30,000–$55,000 per year — not in theory, but in realistic, research‑based barn math.

At Birkstead, that money didn’t show up on a line called “inbreeding.” It showed up as a 20% pregnancy rate, more sick cows than they liked, and robots spending too much time fetching stubborn Holsteins. At North Florida Holsteins, it showed up in a Holstein system that rewarded the same narrow sire lines and type composites even as inbreeding climbed.

Why Recent Inbreeding Hurts More Than Old Inbreeding

One of the traps with inbreeding is treating all of it as doing the same damage. It doesn’t.

Doekes and co‑authors split inbreeding into “recent” (last few generations) and “ancient” (deeper in the pedigree) and then tracked what each type did to production and fitness in Holsteins. Each 1% of new inbreeding cuts fat yield by about 2.4 kg per lactation, while the oldest pedigree class had little to no negative effect — in some models, even a small positive one.

Makanjuola’s work on Canadian Holsteins using runs of homozygosity (ROH) told the same story: recent inbreeding reduced milk and protein yields, while ancient inbreeding had far weaker effects. When you turn that into dollars, you end up in that >$40 per lactation per 1% range for first‑lactation milk alone.

Why the difference?

Ancient inbreeding has already been through decades of selection. The worst double‑copy combinations have largely been purged from the population.
Recent inbreeding creates new double copies in parts of the genome that haven’t had enough generations under selection pressure, especially for fertility and health.

Irish Holstein‑Friesian work suggests that purging has been more effective for production traits than for fertility.We’ve been selecting hard for milk and components for a long time. Fertility and health only really got major index weight in the past 10–15 years. The harshest fertility and survival recessives haven’t been under the hammer as long.

Once you layer genomics on top, the curve steepens. Hansen showed that Holstein female inbreeding rose at about 0.12% per year from 2000 to 2012, then 0.25% per year from 2013 to 2016, and then around 0.4% per year as genomic selection really took over. By the early 2020s, average Holstein females were already in the 8–9% inbreeding range, and by 2024, Canadian Holstein heifers hit 9.99%.

Genomics helped us identify the top animals faster. It also helped us stack the same families faster than purging could clean up fertility and survival.

The Bottleneck Hiding Inside Every Bull Catalog

Talk about Elevation and Chief dominating Holstein pedigrees can sound like coffee‑shop folklore. The data back it up.

Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation (1965-1979), the legendary Holstein sire dubbed “Bull of the Century,” photographed in his prime at Select Sires. This unassuming black and white bull from Virginia transformed global dairy genetics with his exceptional ability to transmit production, conformation, and longevity traits simultaneously. Note his balanced frame, strong topline, and characteristic Elevation profile—physical traits that would be passed to over 8.8 million descendants worldwide. While unremarkable by today’s extreme standards, this bull’s genetic blueprint revolutionized Holstein breeding and continues to influence elite dairy cattle six decades later. His balanced genetics remain the gold standard for functional type: not too tall, not too extreme, but built to last. Photo: Remsberg. (Read more: Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation: The Bull That Changed Everything)

Dechow’s analysis of North American Holstein AI sires showed that almost all modern AI bulls trace back through two dominant male lines — Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation and Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief — with a smaller Penn State Ivanhoe Star line that lost ground after BLAD and CVM issues came to light. Those male lines share common ancestors going back to bulls born in the 1800s.

Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief, born May 9, 1962, stands as one of the most influential Holstein sires in history, contributing nearly 15% to the breed’s genome. His legacy revolutionized milk production and reshaped global dairy genetics. (Read more: The $4,300 Gamble That Reshaped Global Dairy Industry: The Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief Story)

That doesn’t mean today’s bulls are clones. It does mean a lot of those different bull names and pretty catalog photos are branches on the same underlying tree.

Hansen tied that structure directly to the inbreeding trend. He pointed out that Holstein inbreeding increased from 0.12% per year to around 0.4% per year, calling that pace “unsustainable” for commercial dairy profitability. His critique was blunt: the system was “fixated on breeding the best to the best” from the same narrow base as fast as possible, with very little regard for pedigree diversity.

You can see it in your own catalog:

The same few sire lines sit at the top of almost every list.
Studs that stay away from those lines risk market share.
Mating programs that pick bulls strictly on index keep pouring those same families back into your cows.
On paper, you “win.” In your herd, inbreeding creeps up, and fertility, health, and longevity start to cost you.

That’s the bottleneck Don Bennink decided he wouldn’t live inside. It’s also the bottleneck Wantenaar decided he couldn’t afford when his robot herd felt like it was working against him instead of with him.

North Florida Holsteins: Staying Pure Holstein Without Letting Inbreeding Drive

North Florida Holsteins is proof that you can stay pure Holstein, use elite genetics, and still keep inbreeding in check — if you’re willing to ignore some of the glamour numbers.

The herd runs about 4,800 Holstein cows and 4,400 heifers, plus bulls and steers, on roughly 2,400 acres in Florida. Bennink’s mission is simple: “We believe that the function of a seed stock producer is to produce the animal that is the most profitable for the commercial dairyman.” Show‑ring type doesn’t appear in that sentence.

Instead of building their breeding plan around gTPI or Net Merit alone, North Florida Holsteins developed their own custom index. It leans heavily on production, health, fertility, and feed efficiency, and deliberately avoids chasing high composite-type scores that add size and sharpness but not longevity.

On the mating side, they do three key things:

They work with a team of high‑index bulls — often 15 or more — that score well on their index and come from different sire lines.
They limit most bulls to roughly 250–300 services, so no single sire can quietly dominate the herd.
They track inbreeding coefficients on AI matings and deliberately avoid stacking closely related bulls from the same line.

That’s how they can ride the top end of Holstein genomics without following the breed‑wide inbreeding slope up to 10% and beyond.

It’s also how cow families like NO‑FLA Oman Heidi 20611 ended up having an outsized influence. She combined high production with strong health and fertility, and her sons offered high Productive Life and Daughter Pregnancy Rate without pulling in more of the same fragile sire lines.

North Florida Holsteins didn’t solve their inbreeding risk with a magic cross. They solved it by changing who got to call the shots: their own index and inbreeding rules, not the catalog’s top list.

Birkstead Holsteins: When Purebred Inbreeding Made Crossbreeding the Better Risk

Birkstead Holsteins sits in a very different world: a 310‑cow Ontario herd with robots and quota, where labour and vet time have to be guarded. Wantenaar didn’t start out wanting to replace his Holsteins. He started out wanting cows that bred back and stayed out of the hospital pen.

In 2005, he began using Norwegian Red on some Holstein cows. By 2010, crossbreeding was standard in the herd. Today, only 55 of the 310 cows are purebred Holsteins; the rest are crosses, mainly Holstein × Norwegian Red × Montbéliarde or Holstein × Fleckvieh.

The fertility numbers tell part of the story. In 2008, when the herd was still purebred Holsteins, the pregnancy rate was 20%. By the time Progressive Dairy profiled the crossbred herd, the pregnancy rate was 23%, which is three points on the spreadsheet. In a robot barn, that’s fewer open cows, fewer reproductive treatments, and fewer problem calvings.

The health and fresh‑cow picture changed more. Wantenaar told Progressive Dairy the health of the cows “improved drastically” as crossbreeding got established. He still has sick cows, but more of them recover and return to the tank rather than become early culls. Cystic ovaries are much less frequent, unassisted calvings are common, and most crossbred cows hit full production within a week of calving.

Robot data made the difference obvious. The Norwegian Red crosses were averaging 3.1 robot milkings per day, compared to 2.8 milkings per day for the Holsteins. That’s fewer fetches and more cows doing their job without being dragged to it.

He tried multiple crosses along the way:

Ayrshire crosses struggled to deliver the milk he needed, so he dropped that breed.
Montbéliarde crosses milked well and held up physically, but sourcing the genetics he wanted was harder.
Fleckvieh was found along with Norwegian Red because they combined production, temperament, and health in a way that suited the robot barn.

His results align with the 10-year Minnesota trial, which showed that three-breed Holstein × Viking Red × Montbéliarde cows improved fertility at each lactation without sacrificing production and captured more profit through longer herd life.

Crossbreeding brought trade‑offs for Birkstead:

Fewer purebred registrations and show‑ring options.
A different market for heifers; some buyers still pay more for straight Holstein pedigrees.
More planning work up front to keep the rotation and semen ordering on track.

Wantenaar decided those were acceptable costs compared with living indefinitely with a high‑inbreeding pure Holstein herd that fought him on fertility and health.

Strategy	Herd Profile	Core Solution	Key Trade-Offs	Result
North Florida Holsteins(Pure Holstein)	4,800 cows + 4,400 heifers on 2,400 acres, Florida	Custom index (production + health + fertility), 15+ bull team, 250–300 service cap per bull, inbreeding ceiling enforced	Ignores show-ring type, needs more planning work, fights mainstream catalog rankings	Rode top of Holstein genomics without following breed to 9.99% inbreeding; profit-first index kept herd away from fragile sire lines
Birkstead Holsteins(Crossbreeding)	310 cows, Ontario, robotic milking, quota system	Holstein × Norwegian Red × Montbéliarde/Fleckvieh rotation; only 55 of 310 cows still purebred	Fewer purebred registrations, different heifer market, more upfront semen planning	Pregnancy rate jumped from 20% to 23%, health “improved drastically,” robot milkings per day rose from 2.8 to 3.1, fewer cystic ovaries, more cows recover from illness

What This Means for Your Operation

You don’t have to become North Florida Holsteins or Birkstead Holsteins. But you can’t ignore a Holstein inbreeding curve that just hit 9.99% for 2024‑born heifers. Here’s where a 300–600‑cow herd can start.

1. In the next 30 days: Turn your inbreeding ceiling on — deliberately

Most mating programs can flag matings that create excessive expected inbreeding. In many herds, that feature is off, or the ceiling is so high that it never triggers.

Set up a call or barn‑table sit‑down with your AI rep and ask two questions:

“What’s our average expected inbreeding on the current mating plan?”
“What inbreeding ceiling is the software using to block matings?”

If they can’t answer both, you don’t have an inbreeding strategy. You have a checkbox.

Pick a ceiling that fits your herd and risk tolerance. Many Holstein herds aim to keep matings below the high end of the breed’s range, avoiding the 7%–8%+ range where recent inbreeding really starts to stack risk. The exact number is your call. The non‑negotiable piece is that your mating program actually uses it, instead of chasing parent averages at any cost.

2. Over the next 90 days: Build a bull team instead of chasing one “hot” bull

Decide what index actually matches your profit goals — whether that’s Pro, your own custom index, or something close to what NFH uses. Then:

Pick 8–12 service sires that fit it.
Map out how related they are. If most of the team funnels back through the same 2–3 sire lines, you haven’t really diversified your genetics.

Borrow a couple of simple rules from NFH and StrataGEN:

Spread service across a team of bulls with different sire stacks, not just different stud codes.
Cap most bulls at a share of services (for example, NFH often limits many bulls to roughly 250–300 services — about 15–20% of matings per bull).
Use your mating software to assign bulls at the pen level, so each pen draws from a slightly different subset of the team but still respects your inbreeding ceiling.

If you’re used to living on three bulls at a time, this feels like more work on paper than it is in practice. Once the pen‑based plan is set up, your day‑to‑day work can actually get easier.

3. Over the next breeding season: Stop raising replacements from the most inbred end of the herd

If you’re genomic‑testing heifers, rank them by overall merit and inbreeding level. If you’re not genomic‑testing, use the best combination of performance, health, repro, and pedigree risk you have.

In many profitable systems, the bottom 40–50% of females by index and inbreeding get beef semen, and those pregnancies are treated as terminal, not future replacements. Decade‑long crossbreeding work and beef‑on‑dairy economics both show that shrinking the replacement pool and tightening it to your top animals increases daily profit — fewer heifers to raise, more valuable calves, and less inbreeding flowing into the replacement string.

You don’t have to draw the line at exactly 40–50%. The point is to stop raising replacements from the most inbred, lowest‑merit females and pretending that’s neutral.

4. Decide how far you want to go on breed structure

If you see yourself in Birkstead’s old numbers — pregnancy rate stuck around 20%, too many cows on treatment, robots doing more fetching than milking — then a structured crossbreeding program deserves a real look in your 3‑ to 5‑year plan. That doesn’t mean flipping everything overnight. It does mean testing a planned rotation and tracking fertility, health, and robot traffic by breed cross.

If, on the other hand, you’re closer to NFH — big Holstein herd, constrained land, heavy focus on solids shipped — then staying purebred but changing your index and mating discipline may be the smarter move. That path asks you to:

Place more emphasis on fertility, health, and efficiency.
Stop chasing extreme type composites that don’t pay in your parlour or robots.
Treat inbreeding like any other risk metric — something that earns a line on the whiteboard.

You don’t have to know today which path is your forever plan. You do have to stop letting the catalog and default software settings choose for you.

Timeline	Action	What It Does	Who to Involve
Next 30 Days	Turn on and enforce inbreeding ceiling in mating software	Blocks matings that create >7–8% expected inbreeding; stops you from quietly stacking same sire lines while chasing parent averages	AI rep, herd manager, breeding software admin
Next 90 Days	Build a bull team (8–12 sires) from different sire lines; cap each bull at 15–20% of services	Spreads genetic risk across multiple bloodlines; limits how much any single bull can dominate herd; mimics North Florida’s 250–300 service cap per bull	AI rep, nutritionist (if index includes feed efficiency), owner/breeding manager
Next Breeding Season	Stop raising replacements from bottom 40–50% of females by merit + inbreeding; use beef semen on terminal matings	Tightens replacement pool to top animals, cuts inbreeding flow into young stock, raises more valuable beef-cross calves; proven to increase daily profit per cow in Minnesota 10-year crossbreeding trial	Herd manager, genomic testing provider, calf buyer
3- to 5-Year Plan	Decide: stay pure Holstein with custom index + mating discipline (North Florida path), or structured crossbreeding rotation (Birkstead path)	Matches breeding strategy to your herd’s reality—labour, land, robots, quota, markets; both paths work if you stop letting catalog rankings make decisions for you	Owner, family, lender, feed/milk co-op, consultant (if you use one)

Key Takeaways

If your Holstein heifers are already around 10% inbreeding and you’re not actively managing it, you’re likely carrying a $60–$100‑per‑cow‑per‑lactation leak in your breeding plan. You don’t need the exact number to two decimal places. You do need to know your herd’s average inbreeding and what you consider an acceptable ceiling for planned matings.
If genetic indexes in your herd keep climbing while reproduction quietly slides, recent inbreeding belongs near the top of your suspect list. Canadian, Dutch, and Irish work all point in the same direction: recent inbreeding hits fertility and survival harder than old pedigree inbreeding, especially in Holsteins, where we’ve selected harder for production than fertility.
If your mating decisions are still “Which bull is highest?” rather than “Which bull fits and doesn’t stack more of the same blood?”, you’re letting the catalog bottleneck drive your inbreeding curve. North Florida Holsteins shows that capping individual bulls, spreading sire lines, and using a custom index can keep a big Holstein herd profitable without letting inbreeding run the show.
If your day‑to‑day reality looks more like Birkstead’s old robot barn — 20% preg rate, too many problem cows — a planned crossbreeding strategy may be the lower‑risk way to buy fertility and health without giving up on tank milk. Birkstead’s move to Holstein × Norwegian Red × Montbéliarde/Fleckvieh raised pregnancy rate to 23%, cut cysts, and brought more cows through illness and back into the tank.

The Bottom Line

The inbreeding curve doesn’t care how long you’ve been in Holsteins or how many banners you’ve hung. It only cares how often you stack the same families on top of each other.

North Florida Holsteins chose to stay inside the breed but step outside the mainstream index and usage habits. Birkstead chose to change the cows when the cost of staying purebred felt too high in terms of fertility, health, and robot headaches. Both herds made inbreeding a line they actively manage, not a number they glance at once a year.

You don’t have to copy either of them. But you do have to decide which question you’re going to ask the next time you open your mating plan: “Who’s on top of the list?” Or “Which of these bulls is good enough on index — and doesn’t just put more of the same blood on this cow?”

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Net Merit’s $57 “Weight Tax”: How to Pick Holstein Bulls That Still Pay – This implementation guide reveals how to stop Net Merit 2025 from working against you. It arms you with non-negotiable filters for Feed Saved and calf health, ensuring your sire stack generates margin rather than just weight.
Your Top Heifers All Trace to Three Cow Families. That’s a $93,300-A-Year Trap. – This strategic deep dive exposes the six-figure capital risk hiding in narrow maternal lines. It delivers a 90-day blueprint to identify “insurance” families, allowing you to secure your 2028 replacement pipeline against fragility and concentration.
The $200-Per-Cow Blindspot: What Rising Inbreeding Is Costing You – This disruptor analysis breaks down a decade of University of Minnesota data where crossbreds outpaced purebreds by 13% in daily profit. It provides a methodical approach to evaluating unconventional genetic paths to reclaim your “silent” inbreeding losses.

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Categories : Inbreeding

Tags : Birkstead Holsteins, Breeding Strategy, crossbreeding dairy cattle, dairy genetics, genomic selection, Holstein Inbreeding, NORTH FLORIDA HOLSTEINS

Net Merit’s $57 “Weight Tax”: How to Pick Holstein Bulls That Still Pay

Thursday, March 5th, 2026

If your inbreeding is over 9.99% and FSAV isn’t on your proof sheet, Net Merit 2025 is using you — not the other way around.

Executive Summary: Net Merit 2025 added a $57‑per‑point “weight tax” on big Holsteins by cutting Body Weight Composite to ‑11% and lifting Feed Saved to 17.8% of NM$, pushing the breed toward smaller, feed‑efficient cows. Fat now carries 31.8% of the index, protein just 13%, and cow/heifer Livability has more pull, so the model rewards components and survival over sheer size. New calf‑health evaluations — CDCB’s DIAR/RESP and Lactanet’s Calf Health RBVs — reveal that daughters of top 5% sires stay healthy 15–18 percentage points more often than daughters of the worst bulls, and a single respiratory event costs about 121 kg in first‑lactation milk. Meanwhile, average inbreeding for Canadian Holstein heifers hit 9.99% in 2024, and JDS work shows recent inbreeding hurts longevity more than older, diluted inbreeding, raising real questions about how we’re using genomics. Rosy Lane Holsteins leans hard into NM$, FSAV, and calf‑wellness indexes, but still filters out extreme‑stature bulls and ignores classification that doesn’t help profit, showing how to use the system without letting it run the herd. The practical playbook: pair NM$ with reliability, make FSAV and calf health non‑negotiable filters, keep your top three bulls below ~40% of expected future inbreeding, and, in the next 30 days, sit down with your proofs to see if Net Merit’s priorities actually match how your farm makes money.

While you’re scraping stalls or checking heaters, three people you’ve never met just changed the value of every cow in your barn. In a quiet Maryland office park, the USDA recalculated the “ideal” Holstein — and if your cows are “too big” on Body Weight Composite, they just picked up a $57‑per‑point penalty for lifetime Net Merit.

The math lives in Beltsville. The consequences land in your parlour. The April 2025 Net Merit revision didn’t just shuffle a few bulls; it hard‑wired a new answer to a simple question: what kind of Holstein is worth breeding in 2026?

This is the story of the scientists who set that answer — and Rosy Lane Holsteins in Wisconsin, where Lloyd Holterman refuses to let those formulas be the whole story.

Quick Facts: What Changed in Net Merit 2025

Body Weight Composite (BWC): -11% emphasis in NM$.
Feed Saved (FSAV): 17.8% combined emphasis (BWC + Residual Feed Intake).
Fat vs Protein: Fat 31.8%, Protein 13% of NM$ emphasis.
Feed costs in the model: 58% of milk income (39% marginal, 19% maintenance).
“Weight tax”: +1.0 BWC = -$57 lifetime NM$ per daughter.
Genetic gain: Genomics roughly doubled NM$ gain per bull from $40 → $85/year.

Those aren’t trivia numbers. They’re the new rules your proof sheet is playing by.

From Coin, Iowa, to Every Proof Sheet in North America

The modern proof system didn’t start with DNA chips. It started with a kid from Page County, Iowa, who didn’t begin his animal breeding career until he was nearly 40.

Charles Roy Henderson grew up on a general livestock farm, served as an Army Nutrition Research Officer during World War II, and earned his PhD in genetics and animal breeding from Iowa State in 1948 at age 37. At Cornell, he developed best linear unbiased prediction — BLUP — the math that finally separated herd effect from genetic effect. It let evaluators ask: Is this cow actually superior, or just in a better barn?

USDA adopted Henderson’s herdmate comparison method in 1962, replacing the old daughter–dam comparisons. By 1989, BLUP‑based Animal Model evaluations were running in the U.S., with other countries following through the 1990s.

There was still a massive bottleneck. A young bull went into AI around two, his daughters calved, finished a lactation, and the proof didn’t publish until the bull was seven or eight. Only about 1 in 8–10 bulls “graduated” from progeny testing, and each active bull represented a $350,000–$400,000 investment in semen collection, daughter sampling, and promotion.

Genomics blew that up. Illumina’s 50K SNP BeadChip hit the market in 2007, the bovine reference sequence landed in Science in April 2009, and USDA’s Animal Genomics and Improvement Laboratory launched official genomic evaluations for Holsteins and Jerseys in January 2009. Generation interval collapsed — suddenly, you could get a genomic PTA on a bull before he was old enough to breed.

Two Beltsville scientists — Paul VanRaden and George Wiggans — built most of the computational engine that still drives those evaluations today. (Read more: The Invisible Architects: How George Wiggans and Paul VanRaden Helped Double Your Herds’ Genetic Gain)

VanRaden and the $57 “Weight Tax.”

Paul VanRaden joined the USDA’s Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory after his Iowa State PhD in 1986. His name is on a long list of methods you see every time you open a proof sheet — but Net Merit is the one that hits your pocketbook most directly.

Henderson’s BLUP told you which cow was genetically better. VanRaden’s Net Merit dollar index (NM$) tells you which cow should make you more money over her lifetime. It rolls multiple production, fertility, health, and conformation traits into a single lifetime profit estimate — and every revision is another set of judgment calls about what matters, and how much.

Where the 2025 Change Hits Your Herd

The April 2025 NM$ revision increased the emphasis on butterfat and reduced the emphasis on protein, reflecting actual component price trends in recent years. It also shifted weight from Productive Life toward cow and heifer Livability, based on stronger cull cow and heifer calf markets.

The bigger jolt is in body weight and feed efficiency. New feed‑intake data from more than 8,500 Holstein and Jersey lactations showed that maintenance feed costs were higher than previous models assumed. In plain language: big cows cost more to keep milking than the old Net Merit math gave them “credit” for.

So BWC now sits at ‑11% emphasis in NM$. For every extra point of BWC, the model knocks about $57 off that cow’s lifetime Net Merit — mostly for maintenance feed, but also for housing and replacements.

Bull BWC Over Breed Average	Lifetime NM$ Impact Per Daughter	100 Daughters: Total Herd Impact	What You’re Paying For
-0.5	+$29	+$2,900	Feed saved, smaller replacements, lower maintenance
0.0 (Neutral)	$0	$0	Breed average—no penalty, no bonus
+0.5	-$29	-$2,900	Slightly larger cows, modest feed drag
+1.0	-$57	-$5,700	Extra maintenance, housing, replacement costs
+2.0	-$114	-$11,400	Big cows = big feed bills the model sees no profit

Here’s the barn‑math version:

Your bull team averages +1.0 BWC over breed average.
NM$ says that’s about ‑$57 lifetime NM$ per daughter.
Across 100 daughters, that’s roughly $5,700 in lifetime NM$ drag for that sire choice compared to a BWC‑neutral bull.

You can argue with the model. But you can’t pretend it’s not there.

Why Did Fat Leapfrog Protein?

VanRaden’s team also re‑estimated the true genetic cost of components. Genomic and sire regressions suggested that, genetically, fat takes as much or more feed to produce than protein. That’s the opposite of what older phenotypic regressions implied when they just watched cows and feed trucks.

In the 2025 NM$:

Fat carries a relative emphasis of 31.8%.
Protein carries 13%.

Butterfat isn’t just prettier on the milk cheque right now — the model says you’re burning a lot of feed to get it, so the index rewards fat hard.

The feed‑side math behind this revision assumes feed costs equal 58% of milk income — 39% for marginal production and 19% for maintenance. Combine that with the new Feed Saved trait (FSAV), and you see where the wind is blowing:

FSAV is 17.8% of NM$ when you add its BWC and Residual Feed Intake components together.

If you’re not looking at FSAV on your proofs, you’re ignoring almost a fifth of the index you think you’re using.

The subtext is pretty clear: do more milk from less feed, land, and carbon, or get left behind.

Wiggans: The Infrastructure Nobody Sees

If VanRaden designed the engine, George Wiggans made sure it was street‑legal and still running when you opened your proofs this morning.

Theory doesn’t help anybody if it can’t be computed, delivered, and trusted. Wiggans spent his career sorting out genotype management, data quality control, and the nuts and bolts of turning millions of milk, type, and health records into evaluations that AI organizations can actually ship. He was central to the push that got Canadian AI studs to contribute DNA to a shared U.S.–Canada reference population before genomic proofs went live, which still underpins most North American Holstein genomic evaluations.

Every chip you send in has to survive that QC pipeline. The genotype is checked against reported parents, then against the entire database to catch swapped samples or mis‑ID’d animals. If it doesn’t add up, it doesn’t make it into the evaluations.

In a 2022 Frontiers in Genetics paper, Wiggans and Carrillo showed that the U.S. genomic‑selection era roughly doubled the rate of NM$ gain: from about $40 per bull per year (2005–2009) to roughly $85 per bull per year from 2010 onward. The genetic trend lines are real. Whether those gains match your own herd’s priorities is a different question.

What Kills Your Calves Before They Ever Milk?

John Cole is part of the generation pushing genomic evaluations into the ugly stuff that never makes it to the parlor: dead or wrecked calves.

Across multiple datasets, about 75% of preweaned calf mortality comes from just two buckets: diarrhea and respiratory disease. To put numbers on the genetics behind that, CDCB and partners pulled together 207,602 diarrhea records and 681,741 respiratory disease records from calves born between 2013 and 2024. Those data streams feed the new U.S. genomic evaluations for calf diarrhea (DIAR) and respiratory disease (RESP), officially launched in April 2026. Lactanet rolled out its own Calf Health RBVs for Holsteins in August 2025.

The heritability looks low at first glance: about 0.026 for diarrhea resistance and 0.022 for respiratory resistance. Translate that: only 2–3% of the variation in those health outcomes is explained by genetics in the current models. Zoetis’s earlier proprietary Calf Wellness index (CW$) reported slightly higher figures due to differences in traits, models, and data sources.

Cole’s message in presentations and industry pieces has been consistent: don’t let the low heritability numbers fool you. Once you’re doing the basics right on colostrum, hygiene, and housing, adding genetic resistance can still move many calves out of the treatment pen and into the parlor.

The Genetic Spread, in Real Daughters

Lactanet clearly summarized the genetic spread in an August 2025 calf health article and a companion presentation. Among officially proven Holstein sires:

For respiratory disease, daughters of the top 5% sires by calf health RBV stayed healthy (no recorded RESP case) about 71% of the time; daughters of the bottom 5% sires were healthy only about 54% of the time.
For diarrhea, daughters in the top 5% were healthy about 69% of the time, compared with roughly 53% for those in the bottom 5%.

That’s not “nice‑to‑have.” That’s a lot of treatments, mortalities, and delayed heifers tied directly to the bulls you pick.

Rosy Lane Holsteins saw similar real‑world spreads years earlier when it leaned heavily into Zoetis’s Calf Wellness index. A WW Sires case study reported that calves in the top 25% for CW$ at Rosy Lane logged about 50% fewer scours cases and roughly 32% fewer pneumonia cases than calves in the bottom 25% over a 12‑month window — tracked with ultrasound to catch subclinical pneumonia that never showed as a full‑blown “trainwreck.”

An often‑cited study summarized in Farmtario’s 2025 calf‑health coverage showed that heifers with a recorded respiratory disease event produced 121 kg less milk in first lactation. Stack that across a whole age group, and you feel it in the tank.

Genetics won’t fix sloppy colostrum or filthy hutches. But if you’re already holding preweaned mortality in the 3–4% range, calf health genetics is one of the few levers left to push toward that 1–2% elite zone.

What Data Actually Feeds Your Genomic Proof?

Data Source	What It Captures	Who Provides It	Key Blind Spot
DHI/DHIA test	Monthly production, components, SCC	Techs or automated meters	Only ~40% of U.S. herds on some form of official test
Classification	Linear type traits and composites	Breed‑association classifiers	In Canada, only first‑lactation scores feed official type proofs
Genomic labs	SNP genotypes (e.g., 50K → ~54,001 usable markers)	DNA from hair, blood, ear notch	Minor breeds have thin reference populations
Producer health records	Mastitis, metabolic disease, calf health events	Producers via herd software	Only a minority of farms consistently log calf health events

Those gaps matter. The DIAR and RESP national datasets are over 97% Holstein and Jersey — roughly 80% Holstein, 17% Jersey — which makes the models strong for those breeds and less robust for everyone else. If you’re milking registered Holsteins on test and logging health, the system sees you. If you’re off test, crossbred, or light on health records, you’re asking the index to guess.

Does the System See Your Herd — or Just the Average?

Genomic selection was intended to mitigate inbreeding. The sales pitch: if you can see exactly which genes each calf got, you can manage inbreeding smarter. In reality, progress has been messier.

Lozada‑Soto and co‑authors (2024, Journal of Dairy Science) showed that in Nordic Holstein and Jersey populations, yearly inbreeding rates increased after genomic selection took off, and the effective population size for Nordic Holsteins dropped from 54.3 to 42.8. Doekes et al. (2019, Journal of Dairy Science) found that recent inbreeding — long runs of homozygosity in the genome — hurts longevity more than older, “diluted” inbreeding.

You see that on‑farm, as good‑looking heifers that fall apart too soon for reasons you can’t fully blame on your nutritionist or hoof trimmer.

So you’re stuck with a double‑edged sword:

Genomics doubles genetic gain in traits the index rewards.
It also accelerates the narrowing of the gene pool if everyone chases the same handful of sires.

Key traits like heat tolerance, methane emissions, and temperament still don’t have official U.S. evaluations. The index can’t weigh what it doesn’t measure. If those matter on your farm, you’re into custom selection, not blind NM$ chasing.

On the Canadian side, Lactanet’s August 2025 inbreeding update pegged average inbreeding for Holstein heifers born in 2024 at 9.99% — a full percentage point higher than 2014. That’s your benchmark when you run your own mating reports.

Rosy Lane Holsteins: Using the System, Not Worshipping It

The Net Merit model is built for an “average” U.S. confinement herd. Rosy Lane Holsteins, just outside Watertown, Wisconsin, is one of the operations proving you can use that system aggressively without letting it run the show.

Lloyd Holterman and the Rosy Lane team have been clear for years: profit comes first because farming is a business.In a 2014 Bullvine profile and later Zoetis/WW Sires features, Holterman laid out a strategy that still makes some breeders twitch:

Sort bulls by NM$ first, not TPI or show‑ring appeal.
Avoid bulls that crank up Stature; favor moderate‑sized, wide, durable cows.
Stop classifying if the scores aren’t helping profit decisions.

When Rosy Lane compared its cows, Holterman told The Bullvine they found that shorter, wider, better‑conditioned cows “far outlived their higher‑scoring herd‑mates while having fewer foot problems and better fertility.” We later quoted his joking shorthand for what can happen when people chase pure type without thinking about fertility: cows that are “tall, pretty and infertile.” (Read more: ROSY-LANE HOLSTEINS – “Don’t Follow the Herd!”)

That line isn’t a scientific verdict on TPI. It’s one breeder’s sharp reminder that an index built for show cows and an index built for profit aren’t the same tool.

Rosy Lane also leaned early into Calf Wellness genetics. The Zoetis/WW Sires case study from their herd showed calves in the top quartile for CW$ had around half the scours and one third fewer pneumonia cases than bottom‑quartile calves — not because management changed, but because the sire list did. That’s exactly the kind of “make the data pay” story the Beltsville team hopes other herds can copy.

Holterman’s bottom line hasn’t changed: use the tools, but never forget your own milk cheque.

The Bullvine Verdict: Who Gets to Decide What a “Good” Holstein Looks Like?

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: if you don’t know how NM$, FSAV, and calf health evaluations work, someone else is making your breeding strategy — even if you’re the one signing the semen bill.

Beltsville’s job is to define an average profitable Holstein in 2025: moderate size, high components, better feed efficiency, fewer dead calves, and fewer young cows leaving early. That’s not a bad target.

But your farm isn’t average. Your milk contract might reward protein harder than fat. Your freestalls and robot boxes might punish tall, wide cows. Your land base might mean feed is your bottleneck, not cow numbers. Or you might be okay trading some NM$ for show‑ring presence or niche milk premiums.

Net Merit is a strong starting point. It’s just blunt. Rosy Lane is a live example of how a herd can lean hard into Net Merit, calf wellness, and FSAV — and still make their own calls about size, type, and classification.

The real question isn’t “Is Net Merit right?” It’s “Does Net Merit, as currently weighted, line up with the way money actually moves through your operation?”

What This Means for Your Operation

Always read NM$ with reliability beside it. An NM$ +1,000 bull at 75% reliability is a strong estimate; at 95% reliability, it’s a proven moneymaker relative to the base. They’re not interchangeable, and low‑reliability bulls can move 150+ NM$ in a run.
Match your index to your contract. If your cheque pays on components, CM$ or Pro$ might match better than NM$ if you’re fluid and volume-heavy. NM$ is still the best fit. The index choice isn’t a religion — it’s a business decision that should be revisited at least annually as prices shift.
Find FSAV on your sire summary — or ask why it’s missing. With 17.8% combined weight in NM$, FSAV is now a core trait, not a side note. A bull that looks good on milk and components but is weak on FSAV may not pencil once you factor in feed and maintenance.
Use genomics to diversify, not concentrate. Spreading risk across at least 5 genomic sires is cheap insurance. One young bull can re‑rank hard; a group of five rarely does. If your top 3 sires account for more than ~40% of your herd’s expected future inbreeding, that’s a practical red flag to add diversity.
Treat Net Merit as your first filter, not your only one. Rosy Lane uses NM$ as the gate, then rejects bulls that push Stature too high. You might do the same for calving ease, A2A2, polled, robot suitability, or grazing traits, depending on your system.
Put calf health on the table if you’re already nailing management. Once your basic colostrum, housing, and hygiene are solid, DIAR/RESP and tools like CW$ can start doing noticeable work in the background.

Key Takeaways

If your expected inbreeding is higher than 9.99%, it’s time to adjust your mating plan. That 9.99% is Lactanet’s average for Canadian Holstein heifers born in 2024. Run your own mating reports. If your next calf crop is well above that, add two or three outcross or lower‑inbreeding bulls before the next breeding cycle.
If a bull drops more than ~150 NM$ between proof runs, he should lose some tank share. That kind of swing is normal for low‑reliability genomic sires, but it’s your cue to slow his usage and bring in a replacement rather than riding him for another year, hoping he comes back.
If your top 3 bulls contribute more than ~40% of your herd’s expected future inbreeding, you’ve got a concentration problem. That number isn’t a magic line — it’s a simple threshold that tells you when you’ve leaned too hard on a couple of “hot” sires.
If FSAV isn’t in your sire selection process yet, you’re ignoring 17.8% of the index you think you’re using.That’s a lot of money and feed to leave on the table when you’re already fighting ration costs.

The Bottom Line

In the next month, carve out half an hour with your genetic advisor or semen rep. Pull up your proofs, look at BWC, FSAV, reliability, and expected inbreeding side by side — and ask one question: “Does the way I’m using these tools actually match how my farm makes money?”

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

The $212,000 Bulk Tank Lie Hitting Upper Midwest Dairies – Exposes the high-test trap that’s quietly draining your bank account. You’ll gain a concrete 4-point playbook to stop chasing percentages and start shipping the component pounds that actually drive your 2026 milk check.
211,000 More Dairy Cows. Bleeding Margins. The 2026 Math That Won’t Wait. – Reveals the structural reset shifting the ground beneath your feet. It arms you with a strategic plan to navigate record-low heifer supplies and beef-on-dairy math before the 2027 supply crunch hits home.
The $8,100 Gamble on Missy, 198 Dragged Genes, and the 20-Year Breeding Blind Spot Hiding in Your Herd – Delivers a provocative look at the “collateral damage” of selection. You’ll gain a competitive edge by identifying the 198 invisible genes that are sabotaging your herd’s fertility and immune performance right now.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Uncategorized

Tags : Breeding Strategy, dairy genetics, dairy profitability, Feed Saved index, Genomic Testing, Holstein breeding, Net Merit 2025

UW–Madison’s $51/Cow Beef‑on‑Dairy Trap: The Calf Cheque That Hides an $86K–$119K Heifer Bill

Wednesday, March 4th, 2026

Beef‑on‑dairy made your calf cheque bigger. Did it also steal 29 heifers and $86K–$119K from your next two years?

Executive Summary: UW–Madison’s beef‑on‑dairy simulation says a sexed‑plus‑beef program earns about $51/cow/year at 20% preg rate — but that’s built on $570 calves and $2,355 heifers, not today’s prices. In 2026, beef‑on‑dairy calves are bringing roughly $1,200–$1,900, while replacement heifers often cost $3,000–$4,100+, which means the model’s revenue upside is bigger — and the replacement bill is brutal if repro slips. Run the same tiered breeding strategy on a 300‑cow group, and you get two very different outcomes: a high‑PR herd with a 17‑heifer surplus, and a low‑PR herd that’s 12 heifers short — a 29‑head swing worth $86,000–$119,000 a year at current heifer prices. The core takeaway is simple: beef‑on‑dairy is a reproduction strategy first and a calf‑marketing strategy second, and the economics only really work when your 21‑day PR is closer to 30–35% with solid heifer survival. UW–Madison’s most uncomfortable insight is that the optimal insemination window under these calf prices stretches out to around 260 days in milk, so cutting cows at 150–180 days quietly throws away pregnancies and future replacements. The article finishes with a 30/90‑day playbook: pull your PR and 24‑month replacement inventory, check whether your beef‑on‑dairy calves actually average close to 2× your dairy bull calves, and decide how far you can lean into beef‑on‑dairy before you’re forced to buy back heifers at the top of the market.

A replacement heifer that cost $2,355 in UW–Madison’s 2024 assumptions is now a $3,000–$4,100 line item in real markets. The same model valued beef‑on‑dairy calves at $570 — calves that now commonly bring $1,200–$1,900 at major auctions. On paper, the strategy adds $51/cow/year at low pregnancy rates. In the barn, the wrong breeding plan can torch $86,000–$119,000 per 300‑cow pen in replacement costs.

Price Component	UW–Madison Model (2024)	Real Market (Early 2026)	Variance	Impact
Beef × Dairy Calf	$570	$1,200–$1,900	+111% to +233%	Higher revenue (but see replacement crisis)
Dairy Bull Calf	$385	$900–$1,200	+134% to +212%	Narrows beef-on-dairy advantage vs. conventional
Replacement Heifer	$2,355	$3,000–$4,100	+27% to +74%	Replacement bill brutal if PR slips
Net Advantage (20% PR)	$51/cow/year	$264+/cow/year	+418%	Looks great—until you’re 12 heifers short
300-Cow Replacement Gap	29-head swing assumed manageable	29 heifers × new prices = $86K–$119K/year	—	The bill the calf cheque doesn’t cover

The Industry Sprint Toward the Calf Cheque

Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank, summed up the last five years of beef‑on‑dairy in one line: “What happened was we pivoted too hard, too quick.” The industry didn’t just pivot. It sprinted toward the calf cheque and tripped over the empty heifer pens.

Eighty‑one percent of all beef semen sold domestically now goes into dairy herds — 7.9 million units out of 9.7 million, according to NAAB’s 2024 year‑end report. Conventional dairy semen sales shrank 46.5% in that same window. USDA’s January 2026 Cattle report shows U.S. dairy replacement heifers at 3.905 million head, the lowest since 1978. CoBank projects inventories will shrink by 357,490 head in 2025 and another 438,844 head in 2026 before rebounding by 285,387 head in 2027.

Those numbers mean the calves you’re selling today, and the heifers you’re not making will collide in your barn, not just in a spreadsheet.

The $4,100 Heifer vs. the $1,400 Calf

UW–Madison’s economic simulation — published in Journal of Dairy Science in late 2025/early 2026 — modeled a 1,000‑cow dairy using a tiered breeding program: top cows to sexed semen, middle to conventional, bottom to beef. Their default economics looked like this:

Beef × dairy crossbred calf: $570 per head.
Dairy bull calf: $385.
Dairy heifer calf: $167.50.
Replacement heifer rearing cost: $2,355.

Using those inputs, a herd at 20% 21‑day pregnancy rate (PR) with a 170‑day insemination eligibility period (IEP)earned about $51 more per cow per year from a sexed‑plus‑beef strategy than from an all‑conventional program. That’s the famous $51.

Now line that up with what you’re seeing in early 2026:

Premier Livestock’s February 12, 2026, report lists beef‑dairy cross calves at $1,200–$1,910 per head.
Abbotsford Stockyards’ January 14, 2026, report shows baby calves averaging $1,680 with a $500–$2,500 range and Holstein bull calves at $390–$680.
USDA’s January 2026 National Dairy Comprehensive Report has No. 1 bull calves (0–14 days) averaging $1,187.42/cwt and No. 2 at $1,094.10/cwt nationally.
CoBank’s heifer analysis and multiple auction summaries put replacement heifers consistently at $3,000–$4,000+, with some lots exceeding $4,100.

So the calf UW assumed was worth $570 is now worth closer to $1,400. The heifer priced at $2,355 is now more like $3,000–$4,100. The per‑cow advantage is better than $51 at current prices. The replacement exposure is a lot worse.

UW–Madison’s Simulation vs. Your Barn Math

Dr. Victor Cabrera’s 2021 work clarified why beef‑on‑dairy looked like free money. He defined ICOSC — income from calves over semen costs — and showed that beef‑on‑dairy pencils when the beef‑cross calf brings roughly 2× the dairy calf price in herds with at least a 20% 21‑day PR. That 2:1 ratio became gospel.

In 2026, the ratio’s not that clean:

Beef‑on‑dairy calves often bring $1,200–$1,900.
When you translate current cwt and regional reports, Holstein bull calves commonly sit at roughly $900–$1,200equivalent.

Some weeks you’re well past 2:1. Others you’re barely at 1.3–1.5:1. ICOSC advantage has turned into a local, week‑by‑week math problem — not a guaranteed win.

M.R. Lauber, Cabrera, and Paul Fricke went further in their JDS paper, building a discrete Markov‑chain simulation that looked at herd size, semen types, IEP, PR bands from 20–40%, and heifer survival from 75–90%. When they raised the beef‑cross calf value in the model from $570 to $1,125, the net return advantage at 20% PR climbed from $51/cow/year to $264/cow/year. That fits current markets.

But there’s a catch you can’t solve by selling into a hot calf market: the number of dairy heifers the program actually produces.

The Math That Breaks: 300 Cows, Two PRs, One Ugly Gap

Run their logic on a 300‑cow group — something that actually looks like a pen on your place.

Baseline assumptions:

Herd size (group): 300 cows.
Annual replacement rate: 35% → 105 heifers/year needed from this group.
Breeding tiers: top 40% to sexed dairy (120 cows), middle 25% to conventional dairy (75 cows), bottom 35%to beef (105 cows).

Now split that group into two herds: one with strong reproduction, one that’s slipped.

Scenario A — Strong‑PR Herd (35% PR, 85% Heifer Survival)

Sexed matings: 120 cows × 91.2% female = ~109 heifer calves (Lauber et al. 2020 sexed‑semen estimate).
Conventional matings: 75 cows × 46.7% female = ~35 heifer calves (Silva del Río et al. 2007 conventional estimate).
Beef matings: 105 calves = 0 replacements.

Total dairy heifers born: ~144.
After 85% survival: ~122 replacements available.

You need 105. You’ve got a 17‑heifer cushion. That pen can absorb some calf‑barn losses and still hold herd size.

Scenario B — Low‑PR Herd (More Cows Drift to Beef)

Drop the 21‑day PR and something ugly happens. Fewer cows conceive in that early sexed‑semen window. They cycle back, enter later services, and more of them get bred to beef.

Your neat 40/25/35 split slides toward 30/25/45.

Sexed matings: 90 cows × 91.2% female = ~82 heifer calves.
Conventional matings: 75 cows × 46.7% female = ~35 heifer calves.
Beef matings: 135 calves = 0 replacements.

Total dairy heifers born: ~117.
After 80% survival: ~93 replacements available.

You still need 105. Now you’re 12 heifers short. Every year. Same herd size. Same breeding plan on paper. The only difference is reproduction and survival.

The Dollar Hit

UW–Madison priced replacements at $2,355 based on 2020 rearing costs. CoBank and current sale data now peg them at around $3,000–$4,100. That 29‑heifer swing between Scenario A and Scenario B works out to:

29 heifers × $3,000 = $87,000.
29 heifers × $4,100 = $118,900.

Call it $86,000–$119,000 per year on a 300‑cow group. Double the group, double the bill.

That’s without counting lost milk from cows you culled sooner because you wouldn’t carry them open to 260 days, or the premium you’ll pay if you’re forced into the replacement market when everybody else is short, too.

Mid‑size herds — 200–600 cows running 33–36% replacement rates — are structurally more exposed than 3,000‑cow herds sitting closer to 28–31%. Same program, much less room to miss.

The Hidden Lever: 260‑Day IEP (The One Thing Most Herds Are Getting Wrong)

One of the quiet bombshells in Lauber, Cabrera, and Fricke’s modeling is their answer to a simple question: how long should a cow stay eligible for AI in a beef‑on‑dairy system? Not just “what’s your PR?” or “what semen are you using?” but “when do you stop trying?”

In their model, the optimal insemination eligibility period for sexed+beef herds typically sat around 200 days, and they tested windows all the way out to 260 days. The bigger message is that most herds are stopping far too early in a beef‑on‑dairy world.

Most of you are still removing cows from the breeding pool at 150–180 days in milk. That made sense when every extra breeding had limited upside and open‑cow days killed margin over feed. With beef‑on‑dairy in the mix, the upside of one more pregnancy looks very different.

Pro‑Tip: The 260‑Day Window

UW–Madison tested IEPs from 50 to 260 days and found that, at today‑equivalent calf values, extending eligibility beyond 170 days — often toward roughly 200 days for sexed+beef programs — moved net return up as long as replacement needs were covered.
Stopping at 170 days under a beef‑on‑dairy program leaves pregnancies — and replacement heifers — on the table.
The trade‑off is real: more open days means higher feed and housing costs per pregnancy. But at current beef‑cross prices, the model says those extra calves more than pay for the added days.

So if you’re obsessing over which beef bull to order while quietly chopping your IEP short, you’re probably solving the wrong problem.

Replacement Risk: The PR Table That Should Make You Pause

Strip away the modeling details, and what’s left is a simple grid: your 21‑day PR and how much replacement risk you’re buying.

Your 21‑Day PR	Net Return Advantage (Sexed+Beef vs. Conventional)	Replacement Risk
20% (low)	≈ $51/cow/yr at $570 calves; significantly higher at today’s $1,200–$1,900	High risk of replacement deficit if heifer survival slips below 80%.
25% (below avg)	~$51 + $10–$35/cow from better PR and tiered breedings	Still tight below 80% survival; little room for calf‑barn losses.
30% (average)	Meaningfully higher ICOSC margin and calf revenue	Replacement needs manageable with decent calf and heifer management.
35–40% (high)	Substantially higher; each PR point adds $2–$7/cow/yr, compounding at herd level	Comfortable surplus in most modeled scenarios, even with lower survival.

The punchline: beef‑on‑dairy is first a reproduction strategy and only then a calf‑marketing strategy. If you’re playing it at 20–24% PR, you’re taking a high‑wire act that the UW model already flagged as thin at old-heifer prices.

Has Beef‑on‑Dairy Already Peaked?

CattleFax projected beef‑on‑dairy calf production reaching 4–5 million head annually by 2026, putting it firmly into the core of the U.S. beef supply. Purina’s 2025 beef‑on‑dairy report suggests those volumes have “likely reached their peak,” with a gradual 300,000–400,000 head decline expected in the next few years.

Semen sales tell a similar story. CoBank’s August 2025 work shows beef semen sales essentially flat from 2023 to 2024, while gender‑sorted dairy semen sales jumped 17.9% — 1.5 million extra units in a single year. “Those calves hitting the ground will become milk cows in 2027,” Abbi Prins said. The replacement pipeline is refilling. Slowly.

USDA’s January 2026 National Dairy Comprehensive Report shows No. 1 bull calves at $1,187.42/cwt and No. 2 at $1,094.10/cwt. That $93/cwt spread tells you quality already matters in the calf barn — and some of the calves you’d love to ship are the ones you may need to keep.

What This Means for Your Operation

This is where the story stops being about “the industry” and starts being about your next breeding cycle.

This week: Put PR and replacements on the same page.

Pull two reports:

Your rolling 12‑month 21‑day pregnancy rate.
Your projected replacement heifer inventory 18–24 months out (bred heifers + open heifers + heifer calves × your real survival rate).

If you can’t get both out of your herd software or records, that’s the first problem to fix. You’re running a replacement‑sensitive strategy without a dashboard. For a deeper management lens, come back to Bullvine’s beef‑on‑dairy management playbook.

Within 90 days: Run a 24‑month replacement audit.

Calculate your two‑year replacement need: herd size × (cull rate + death loss) × 2.
Stack that against your heifer pipeline: breds + opens + calves × survival.

If the pipeline is under 105% of your two‑year replacement need, that’s a yellow light. Under 100%, it’s red. Your next breeding round should cut beef breedings on marginal cows and push more sexed/conventional semen until the pipeline is back above that 105% buffer.

By your next annual breeding review: Put beef‑on‑dairy on a cash basis.

Add up 12 months of beef‑on‑dairy calf revenue.
Add up 12 months of replacement heifer costs (purchased and fully costed home‑raised, to first calving).
Subtract the heifer cost from the calf revenue.

That net number — not your best calf‑sale week — is what beef‑on‑dairy is actually earning your operation.

This month: Run your own ICOSC check.

Take actual dairy bull calf and beef‑on‑dairy calf prices from the last 12 months.
If your beef‑cross calves aren’t averaging close to 2× your dairy bull calves, the ICOSC advantage Cabrera modeled at 20% PR gets thinner for your herd.

That doesn’t mean abandon beef‑on‑dairy. It just means the economics only really sing when reproduction has your back.

At your next repro strategy meeting: Talk about 260 days, not just “too many open cows.”

Ask your vet and nutritionist:

Which cows can realistically stay in the breeding pool to 260 DIM and still make sense in terms of production and health?
Which cows still need to leave earlier because of feet, legs, mastitis, or poor milk?

Model what happens if you extend the IEP from 170 to 220 to 260 days — how many pregnancies do you pick up, and what does that add in calf revenue vs. extra feed cost? UW’s model says the extra pregnancies pay at current prices; your numbers should verify that.

Budget off $1,200 calves, not $1,900.

If your plan only holds together when beef‑on‑dairy calves bring $1,800–$1,900, it’s not a plan — it’s hope. Build the math on $1,200 and let the good weeks be real upside.

Key Takeaways

If your 21‑day PR sits near 20%, beef‑on‑dairy is a high‑risk play. The UW model’s $51/cow/year advantage at 20% PR is based on $570 calves and $2,355 heifers. At today’s prices, the revenue is better — but the same model shows you can easily fall short on replacements if heifer survival sags or too many cows drift into beef breedings.
If you’re above 30% PR, the question isn’t “should we?” It’s “how hard do we lean?” Each PR point adds $2–$ 7 per cow per year to the breeding‑strategy advantage. On a 500‑cow herd, a 10‑point PR jump is $10,000–$35,000/year from semen strategy alone.
If you haven’t done a forward replacement count, you’re not managing beef‑on‑dairy — you’re hoping the bill isn’t too big. The same breeding plan can leave one 300‑cow group with a 17‑heifer surplus and another 12 heifers short, a 29‑head swing worth $86,000–$119,000 at current heifer prices.
If you’re still cutting breeding eligibility off at 150–180 days, you’re almost certainly leaving pregnancies and heifers on the table. UW–Madison’s work points to an optimal 260‑day IEP under current calf values. You gain more calves and replacements; you give up some feed efficiency. The money is in deciding where that trade‑off lands on your farm.

The Bottom Line

The calf cheque is immediate. The replacement bill is patient. Geiger’s warning about sprinting toward beef‑on‑dairy and Prins’s view that heifer prices haven’t peaked both land yet in the same place. UW–Madison, working off assumptions that now look cheap, still only found a $51/cow edge at low pregnancy rates.

You already know what your beef‑on‑dairy calves brought last week. The better question is simple and uncomfortable: how many heifers are you short 18–24 months from now, and what’s that really costing you?

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Beef-on-Dairy’s $6,215 Secret: Why 72% of Herds Are Playing It Wrong – Reclaim your herd’s profitability with a precision blueprint that stops the breeding guesswork. This breakdown reveals the specific reproductive “guard rails” that turn a $2,000 monthly gain into $6,000, arming you with a clear, performance-based strategy for your next pen.
$3,010 Per Heifer. 800,000 Short. Your Beef-on-Dairy Bill Is Due. – Secure your operation’s future against a structural 800,000-head heifer deficit. This analysis exposes the upcoming 2027 supply collision, delivering the market intelligence you need to navigate $4,000 price tags and lock in essential processor partnerships before the window slams shut.
9.57 Million Cows, 3.9 Million Replacements: Genetics Built This Dairy Herd Paradox – and 2027 Ends It – Disrupt the traditional culling cycle by capturing the massive “longevity dividend” hidden in your herd. This investigation breaks down why 2027 marks a hard reset for genetics, revealing how focusing on cow productive life delivers a $9,000 competitive advantage per cow.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Beef on Dairy

Tags : 21-day pregnancy rate, beef-on-dairy, Breeding Strategy, dairy profitability, dairy replacement heifers, heifer rearing costs, herd management

Super Bowl LX and the $869-Per-Cow Sire Gap: The Breeding Strategy Your Dairy Can’t Ignore

Sunday, February 8th, 2026

Super Bowl LX will burn $8M a spot. Your sire picks can swing $869 per cow. Still letting someone else call the breeding plays?

Executive Summary: Top‑quartile genetics are already worth $869 more lifetime profit per cow, according to a nine‑year Zoetis study on 12,952 Holsteins across 11 US dairies. This article shows how that gap has widened with the 2025 NM$ revision, where a higher weight on Feed Saved and longevity – and a 11% hit on cow size – quietly killed the idea that a show‑ring cow is also the most profitable commercial cow. Framed against Super Bowl LX’s $8 million ad slots, it argues your sire choices deserve the same level of strategy, because they move far more money across a 200‑cow herd than any 30‑second commercial. You’ll get a concrete “game plan”: a four‑slot sire roster with named December 2025 bulls, a one‑page scorecard to run every bull through, and a simple starting plan for genomic testing on your next 20 heifers. Stories from Simon Vander Woude in California, the Baileys at Moorhouse Hall Farm in the UK, and DataGene focus farms in Australia show what happens when producers stop delegating sire selection and let the numbers challenge old habits. The core message is direct: over the next five years, genetics is shifting from “nice‑to‑optimize” to a structural survival factor for any dairy paid on components.

A nine-year Zoetis study tracking 12,952 Holsteins across 11 US dairies found that cows in the top 25% of genetic profitability generated $869 more in lifetime profit than cows in the bottom 25% (Zoetis, August 2022, ranked by Dairy Wellness Profit Index). On a 200-cow herd, that gap adds up to $173,800 per cow generation. On a 100-cow herd, $86,900. That’s not a model. It’s observed data from real operations over nearly a decade.

Tonight, brands paying $8 million for 30 seconds of Super Bowl LX airtime at Levi’s Stadium have stress-tested their campaigns for months — audience-segmented, ROI-modeled, every frame data-validated. Meanwhile, a 2010 reader survey found that 46% of producers simply use whatever mating program their A.I. company provides, and only 11% match sire traits to individual cow weaknesses. That survey is 16 years old now — and given the complexity genomics has added, the delegation rate may well be higher today.

Your sire selection deserves the same analytical rigor that advertisers bring to a 30-second spot.

The Widening Genetic Gap

Genomic selection has fundamentally accelerated genetic progress in US Holsteins. Before genomics took hold, from 2005 through 2009, the average Net Merit gain for marketed Holstein bulls was roughly $40 per year. Since 2011, that rate has more than doubled. Wiggans and Carrillo documented the acceleration in a 2022 review published in Frontiers in Genetics. CDCB’s own genomic impact data tells a similar story — $40.33 per year from 2005–2010, jumping to $79.20 per year from 2016–2020. The distance between elite and middle-of-the-pack genetics grows larger with each proof round, and if you’re not actively capturing that progress, you fall further behind every cycle.

The December 2025 US Holstein genetic evaluations made the concentration at the top impossible to ignore. Genosource now holds 22 of the top 30 NM$ positions — 73% of the industry’s elite profitability bracket. The number-one bull, GENOSOURCE RETROSPECT-ET, sits at +1,296 NM$. The NM$ true transmitting ability standard deviation is $228 (VanRaden et al., NM$, January 2025), which means a single standard deviation of difference between your sire battery and the industry average shows up as real dollars at the bulk tank. Every month. For years.

Mid-size operations — 100 to 500 cows — feel this most acutely. You’re large enough that genetic differences compound into serious money, but you probably don’t have a dedicated genetics manager parsing proof sheets three times a year.

What Producers Discovered When They Stopped Delegating

Alta Genetics has built its entire product philosophy around what they call the 4-EVENT COW — a cow whose card reads FRESH, BRED, PREGNANT, DRY, and nothing else. No treatments, no repros, no vet calls between those four entries. Their Alta CONCEPT PLUS sire fertility evaluation, built on real pregnancy check data from progressive dairies across North America since 2001, identifies bulls that create more pregnancies faster — CONCEPT PLUS DxD sires deliver a 2–5% conception rate advantage over the average conventional sire on cows, and CONCEPT PLUS 511 sires add 3–7% when using sexed semen on heifers (Alta Genetics, 2025). A mating program adjusts the consistency of type traits within your herd. Sire selection determines the genetic level of the herd itself. Delegate the selection, and no mating optimization closes the gap.

The Zoetis study made this concrete. The difference between top-quartile and bottom-quartile genetics wasn’t just dollars — it was 35% more milk, 44% fewer antibiotic treatments over their lifetimes, 5% less feed for maintenance, and an estimated 10% less enteric methane. And that gap held regardless of management quality across all 11 herds studied. That’s why the conversation has shifted from “genetics is about production” to “genetics is about total cost structure.”

Simon Vander Woude’s operation illustrates how the shift actually happens on a working farm. Vander Woude owns and operates three dairies totaling 6,000 cows near Merced, California, and has run over 10,000 genomic tests with Zoetis CLARIFIDE Plus. His team started genomic testing simply to identify bottom-end heifers to sell off and get heifer inventory in line with cow numbers. But the test results revealed something uncomfortable: they’d been chasing Daughter Pregnancy Rate as a standalone trait without evaluating how it connected to the rest of the animal. “We focused on DPR pretty heavily and kind of forgot about milk for a while,” Vander Woude shared in 2022. “We’ve stubbed our toes plenty along this path.” That honest reassessment reshaped their entire program. Today, they run IVF on top genomic females — 40 to 60 embryo calves born per month — sexed Holstein semen on the next tier, and Angus on everything else. A tiered system that didn’t exist before they let the data challenge their assumptions.

The Bailey family at Moorhouse Hall Farm in Cumbria, England, had a different trigger entirely. John, Kate, and their son Chris — a full-time vet — started genomic testing their heifers after hearing Nuffield Scholar Neil Easter describe how he’d built a herd with youngstock in the top 1% for Profitable Lifetime Index. As they tested, AHDB’s broader UK analysis revealed a startling finding: around 17% of calves had their recorded sires updated when genotypes were analysed — 7% because the wrong sire was recorded, another 10% because no sire was recorded at all (AHDB, 2024). The Baileys now genomic test every heifer, breed their top-performing animals to dairy sires and the bottom 10–20% to beef, and sit just shy of the top 1% nationally for £PLI in their youngstock. “We used to always find an excuse for why a certain cow should be bred,” John Bailey told AHDB. “But now with genomics, the data gives us much more confidence in identifying the bottom performers.”

The 2025 NM$ Revision: Why USDA Rewrote the Formula

Here’s where a lot of conventional wisdom about cow size and type starts to break down.

When USDA researchers ran genomic regressions on actual feed intake data from over 8,500 lactations of more than 6,600 dairy cows in US and Canadian research herds, the number that came back caught everyone off guard: real maintenance costs were 5.5 pounds of dry matter intake 1,000 per pound of body weight per lactation. That’s roughly twice the previously used phenotypic regression estimates. Every producer who’d been selecting for bigger, taller cows had been unknowingly selecting for higher maintenance costs than anyone calculated.

So USDA rebuilt the formula. Here’s what changed (VanRaden et al., NM$, January 2025):

Feed Saved now commands 17.8% combined emphasis — 11% from body weight composite and 6.8% from residual feed intake. Productive Life carries 13% emphasis at $30 per month, and when you add Cow Livability’s 5.9%, the durability complex totals 18.9% — making longevity the largest non-yield trait group in the index. The lifetime economic values driving NM$ are $5.01 per pound of fat PTA and $3.32 per pound of protein PTA, calculated across 2.70 average lifetime lactation equivalents for Holsteins.

And the traditional type-trait weightings? They dropped hard enough to change the conversation:

Trait Category	NM$ Emphasis	Direction	What Changed	Why It Matters for Your Herd
Feed Saved	+17.8%	↑	Real maintenance costs were 2× previous estimates; emphasis jumped from ~9% to 17.8%	Bigger cows now cost you more than the old formula calculated—select for efficiency, not size
Productive Life + Cow Livability	+18.9%	↑	PL at 13% ($30/month), Livability 5.9%—longevity is now the largest non-yield trait group	Cows that last five lactations beat cows that peak high and break down by lactation three
Udder Composite	1.3%	↓	Dropped from ~5%; two decades of selection finished the job	Further emphasis yields diminishing returns on work already done—udders are largely fixed
Feet & Legs Composite	0.4%	↓	Classifier scores correlated poorly with actual lameness and hoof health	Direct health traits predict lameness better than visual scores ever did
Body Weight Composite	−11.0%	↓↓	Active penalty—NM$ now selects against excess cow size	Every extra pound of body weight costs you 5.5 lbs DMI per lactation; the show-ring cow is now a commercial liability

The math is hard to argue with: NM$ has driven a permanent wedge between the show ring cow and the commercially profitable cow. For two decades, the industry could pretend the gap wasn’t that wide. With Udder Composite at 1.3%, Feet and Legs at 0.4%, and body weight penalized at −11%, that pretense is over. You can still breed show cattle. You can still win banners. But the economics now say, clearly and quantifiably, that the traits rewarded in the ring and the traits rewarded at the bulk tank have parted ways.

The type-to-health connection runs deeper than index weightings. Dechow et al. (2003, Journal of Dairy Science) documented a −0.73 genetic correlation between Body Condition Score and Dairy Form in first-lactation Holsteins — meaning cows that score high for angular dairy character are genetically predisposed to thin body condition at calving. That predisposition elevates ketosis risk.

The traits that actually drive longevity are functional: rear udder height, teat placement, and udder depth. Not the visual sharpness that wins ribbons.

One caveat worth stating plainly: if you market breeding stock, embryos, or show cattle, you may rationally weight type traits higher than a commercial herd optimizing for tank revenue. The NM$ recalibration reflects commercial profitability priorities. Seedstock economics are different — that’s a legitimate strategic choice, not a mistake. But don’t confuse the two. And don’t let anyone tell you that a cow that scores EX-95 is automatically more profitable than a VG-86 daughter who freshens easy, breeds back fast, and milks hard for five lactations. The numbers no longer support that story.

Your Game Plan: Three Strategies Producers Are Using Right Now

Build a Complementary Sire Roster — Not a Ranked List

Think of it like building a Super Bowl roster. You don’t field a team of four quarterbacks. You need depth at every position, and each player fills a specific role. Same with your sire lineup.

The instinct is to line up your top four NM$ bulls and start breeding. But a ranked list isn’t a roster. Four bulls who share the same weaknesses leave your herd exposed in exactly the same spots.

A complementary depth chart assigns each sire a defined role:

Roster Position	% of Matings	Strategic Role	December 2025 Example	Key Selection Criteria
Franchise	≈35%	High NM$, balanced, no catastrophic weakness	STGEN STUART-ET (NM$ not specified, 1,666 Milk, 145 Fat, 71 Protein)	Overall profitability, proven reliability, well-rounded trait profile
Component Specialist	≈25%	Maximize fat + protein revenue	GENOSOURCE BENCHMARK-ET (228 CFP, highest among top NM$ sires)	Elite Combined Fat + Protein, strong production firepower
Longevity/Fertility Fixer	≈25%	Address durability and reproduction gaps	FB 8084 ADEBAYO-P-ET (PL +5.3, LIV +4.5, FI +2.5, SCS 2.78, BWC −0.39, polled)	High Productive Life, fertility traits, moderate body weight, functional focus
Outcross/Inbreeding Hedge	≈15%	Distinct sire line and maternal grandsire	Prioritize different sire lines and MGS not in your other three slots	Pedigree diversity, Expected Future Inbreeding <7%, distinct lineage

Adebayo-P is a functional specialist, not a production leader (56M, 54F, 33P per Holstein Association August 2025 TPI list)—that’s precisely why he fills a role your franchise and component bulls can’t. All rankings may shift at the April 2026 proof run.

Verrier et al. (1993, Journal of Dairy Science) showed that factorial mating designs — where dams see several different sires — produced significantly lower inbreeding rates relative to genetic gain than single-sire approaches. And the December 2025 rankings saw considerable reshuffling, including BEYOND SHPSTR GOLLEY-ET vaulting to #2 GTPI at 3,605. A diversified roster absorbs that kind of volatility. A single-sire strategy doesn’t.

Where this can fall short: It takes more time and familiarity with trait profiles than picking one bull. If reading sire summaries feels overwhelming, you can capture roughly 80% of the benefit by setting an NM$ floor and using three bulls from different sire lines — even without position-specific assignments. For more on building genetic selection resources, start with the evaluation archives.

Genomic young sires carry reliability of roughly 70–75%, compared to 95%+ for daughter-proven bulls. Using three or four sires instead of one hedges that reliability gap — another reason the roster approach outperforms going all-in.

Your Halftime Adjustments: The One-Page Sire Scorecard

Every team makes adjustments at the half based on what the first two quarters showed them. Your sire scorecard works the same way — it forces you to look at what your herd actually needs before your next breeding play.

Before you open a catalog or take a call from your rep, answer these questions and write down actual numbers:

What are your current fat and protein pounds per cow? Pull your last three DHIA milk recording reports.
What are your top three cull reasons over the past 12 months? Most DHI software generates this in minutes.
What’s your NM$ floor? With December 2025 bulls clearing $1,200+, there’s little reason to go below $900 on any roster sire.
What’s your maximum Expected Future Inbreeding? Most geneticists suggest keeping genomic inbreeding below 7–8%.
What functional traits does your facility specifically demand? Robotic milking needs teat placement and milking speed. Grazing operations weight feet-and-legs and body weight differently than freestalls.

Tape that sheet to the wall. Next time anyone recommends a bull — your rep, a catalog, a neighbor — run him through the scorecard first.

This doesn’t replace your A.I. rep. It redirects the relationship. You direct the strategy. They source bulls that fit your framework. That’s a fundamentally different conversation than “send me what you think is good.”

One index note: If your plant pays a cheese yield premium, consider weighting CM$ alongside NM$. Under CM$, protein carries $4.73/lb emphasis versus $3.32 in NM$ (VanRaden et al., NM$, 2025). If you’re on a Class I fluid contract, FM$ may be your better primary index. Know your market before you choose your yardstick.

Genomic Test Your Next 20 Replacement Heifers

You don’t have to test every animal tomorrow. Start with the next group approaching breeding age. UK data from the AHDB showed that herds genotyping 75–100% of their heifers had an average Profitable Lifetime Index of £430 per animal in their 2023 calf crop, compared to £237 for herds testing 0–25% of heifers. That £193 gap translates to roughly £19,300 in theoretical profit potential for a typical 175-head herd — but AHDB’s analysis of actual farm business accounts revealed the real advantage at that genetic difference to be over £50,000. Those aren’t projections. They’re margins from real accounts.

Genomic Testing Rate	Avg £PLI Per Animal	Theoretical Profit Potential (175-head herd)	Actual Profit Advantage (Farm Accounts)
0–25% Testing	£237	Baseline	Baseline
75–100% Testing	£430	+£19,300	+£50,000+
The Gap	+£193 per animal	—	Real margins from UK farm business accounts, not projections

Dave Erf, dairy technical services geneticist with Zoetis, offers three ground rules for getting started: have a plan for how you’ll use the results before you test, lay out a herd roadmap of where you’re strong and where you need to improve, and test all your heifers — not just the ones you think are best. “If you just test your best ones, you can’t make a culling decision, because you don’t know,” Erf shared.

The trade-off is real, though. Testing creates a two-tier system — dairy sires on your top genomic females, beef sires on the bottom. If you test but don’t actually follow through on that split, you’ve spent the money without capturing the value. And on very small herds under 50 cows with limited replacement needs, the per-head cost may not generate enough selection differential to justify universal testing. Start with 20 and scale from there.

The Five-Year Outlook: Marginal Edge or Structural Separation

Five years out, is disciplined sire selection a nice-to-have or a survival factor?

The evidence points toward structural separation. CoBank’s lead dairy economist Corey Geiger laid out the financial logic in a March 2025 Knowledge Exchange report: “there’s a clear financial incentive for producers given that multiple component pricing programs place nearly 90% of the milk check value on butterfat and protein.” And the genetic pipeline is delivering. Butterfat in US Holsteins hit a record 4.23% in 2024, and protein reached 3.29% — both per USDA/NASS data. Between 2011 and 2024, butterfat production surged 30.2% and protein by 23.6%, both outpacing the 15.9% growth in fluid milk volume (CoBank, March 2025). For a broader context on where this is heading, see the 2025 genetic evaluation updates.

“Selecting animals for highly heritable traits and having a market incentive to do so has formed a strong foundation for dairy producers to develop their herds to produce more butterfat and protein,” Geiger wrote. “Genetics should continue to gain momentum in the coming years.”

In the UK, 112,507 cows were genomically tested in 2024 — a 19% jump over the prior year. The adoption curve is accelerating. Marco Winters, head of animal genetics at AHDB, put it bluntly: “Improving genetics is probably the cheapest and most sustainable way of making long-term improvements to any herd, and when you’re using a genetic index which has been developed specifically to increase profitability, this feeds straight through to a farm’s bottom line.”

In Australia, DataGene’s ImProving Herds project — which tracked 27 Genetic Focus Farms and 7 Herd Test Focus Farms — found that every single case study farm adopting data-informed genetic decisions reported improved business performance, even during a severe milk price crash and drought (DataGene, 2023 final report). Six of seven Herd Test Focus Farms continued testing permanently. Once the feedback loop started working, going back felt reckless.

Here’s what makes genetics different from every other efficiency tool on your dairy. Feed systems, robotic milkers, and activity monitors — they all require ongoing capital and operating expense. Genetic gains are baked into the biology. They compound without additional spend. In a margin squeeze, the operation running genetically superior cows carries a fundamentally lower breakeven. Not because they manage better. Because their cows are biologically cheaper to run.

What This Means for Your Operation

Before your next semen order, build the one-page scorecard. Thirty minutes, five questions, taped to the wall. Every sire candidate is scored against your herd’s actual needs—not catalog rankings or rep recommendations.
This month, genomic test your next 20 breeding-age heifers. Use the results to split your replacement pipeline: dairy sires on top-tier females, beef sires on the rest. Test them all — not just the ones you think are best.
At your next rep conversation, hand them the scorecard and ask them to fill four roster positions—not just recommend their current favorites. Which bull addresses your top cull reason? What’s the Expected Future Inbreeding for each sire mated to your herd? Do they have outcross options from distinct sire lines?
Every proof round (April, August, December), revisit your roster. December 2025 reshuffled the rankings significantly. A lineup built in January may need adjusting by August.
If your herd averages over 1,600 lbs body weight, the NM$ maintenance cost recalibration means your feed costs per unit of production are likely higher than your old genetic plan accounted for. With BWC now carrying −11% emphasis in NM$, selecting for lower body weight composite and positive Feed Saved isn’t optional anymore.
If you market breeding stock or show cattle, recognize that NM$ reflects commercial priorities. Weighting type traits more heavily is a legitimate strategic choice — just make it with full awareness of the trade-off in commercial efficiency.

Questions to Ask Your Genetics Rep This Week

Print this. Bring it up in your next conversation about your semen order.

Can you show me trait profiles — not just index rankings — for every bull in my current lineup?
Which of my current sires directly addresses my top cull reason?
What is the Expected Future Inbreeding for each bull when mated to my herd?
Do you have outcross options from distinct sire lines and maternal grandsires?
How does my current lineup score on Feed Saved and body weight composite under the 2025 NM$ revision?

The Longest Game You Play

Tonight’s Super Bowl ends in four quarters. Your sire decisions don’t resolve for a decade.

Vander Woude has been at this for over a decade now. He wouldn’t still be testing 6,000 cows if he didn’t believe it paid for itself. “It’s really hard to quantify how it pays for itself,” he shared. “But I have a much better herd of cows.” Dave Erf, his Zoetis geneticist, was more specific: “I’ve never seen such a good reproduction performing herd… I think genetics helped them get there.”

Know your cows. Know your numbers. Match the bull to the need. That’s the whole shift in one sentence—and the data shows most of the industry still isn’t doing it.

Your semen tank is right there. The scorecard takes half an hour. And every daughter that walks into your parlor two years from now will be the commercial that plays on repeat, for better or worse, for the rest of the decade.

Key Takeaways

Your sire choices now move $869 per cow in lifetime profit, based on a nine‑year Zoetis study of 12,952 Holsteins on 11 US dairies — that’s $173,800 a generation on 200 cows.
The 2025 NM$ changes pay you more for Feed Saved and longevity and hit you for excess cow size (−11% BWC), so chasing big, showy cows is now a direct hit to commercial profitability.
You can upgrade from “favorite bulls” to a real breeding game plan by running a four‑slot sire roster: franchise profit bull, high‑component hammer, durability/fertility fixer, and an outcross to keep inbreeding in check.
A one‑page scorecard (NM$ floor, EFI cap, top three cull reasons, facility needs) plus genomic testing on your next 20 heifers is enough to start sorting dairy vs. beef matings with confidence.
If you’re getting paid on butterfat and protein, genetics is no longer a “nice extra” — it’s one of the few levers that can permanently pull your breakeven down while feed and labor keep marching up.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

The $1750 Calf: Is Your 2026 Breeding Plan Leaving $800 a Head on the Table? – Arms you with a 90-day blueprint to capitalize on the $1,750 beef-on-dairy market without hollowing out your future herd. This guide delivers the specific math you need to convert surplus pregnancies into immediate, high-margin revenue.
Bred for $3 Butterfat, Selling at $2.50: Inside the 5-Year Gap That’s Reshaping Genetic Strategy – Exposes the “ironic index trap” of breeding for yesterday’s premiums while positioning your operation for 2030. You’ll gain a methodical approach to hedging against market volatility throughout the multi-year genetic expression cycle.
The Next Frontier: What’s Really Coming for Dairy Cattle Breeding (2025-2030) – Breaks down the 2025–2030 roadmap of AI-driven selection and microbiome markers that promise 70% labor reductions. This vision of the future delivers a massive early-adopter advantage for producers ready to move beyond traditional production metrics.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Dairy Cattle Breeding Strategies

Tags : Breeding Strategy, dairy genetics, dairy profitability, Feed Saved, Genomic Testing, Net Merit revision, US Holstein proofs

Stop Breeding by Color: Genomics, Heat Stress and Beef‑on‑Dairy Math That Can Add Over $4/cwt to Holstein Margins

Monday, January 19th, 2026

Spending $2,000 to raise a heifer because she’s got more white? Genomics says that’s a losing bet. Beef-on-dairy says there’s $4+/cwt on the table.

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/2469459/">E467 Stop Breeding by Color: Genomics, Heat Stres | RSS.com</a>

If we were sitting over coffee at a winter meeting in Ontario or Wisconsin, you’d probably hear someone say, “Those white cows just seem to last,” or “I like that kind of pattern; they’re my kind.” A lot of us grew up with that way of thinking. For decades, the way a Holstein looks—her color, pattern, and style—has sat right beside milk records, butterfat levels, and fresh cow management notes when we’ve made breeding decisions, just like breed associations and coat‑color labs still describe for Holsteins today, especially around the red factor and MC1R work coming out of places like the University of Saskatchewan and VHLGenetics.

Here’s what’s interesting in 2025. The ground under that old habit has shifted. Genomic evaluations, population‑genetics work on inbreeding, new heat‑stress research, and some pretty eye‑opening 2025 beef‑on‑dairy economics are all pointing in the same direction: your eye still matters a lot, but it’s no longer the sharpest tool for predicting which calves will pay back rearing costs and stay productive through multiple lactations. A big U.S. Holstein study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed that once genomic selection came in, the generation interval for sires of young bulls dropped from roughly seven years down to about two and a half, and the annual genetic gains for milk, fat, protein, fertility, and productive life basically doubled compared with the old progeny‑test era.

When you put that next to the economics, the stakes get very real. A Canadian study by CanFax and the Beef Cattle Research Council found that the average cost to raise a replacement heifer was about CA$2,904 in 2023, with a range of CA$1,900 to CA$3,800 across farms. North American dairy budgets generally put that in the US$1,800–2,500 range to get a heifer to calving, once you factor in feed, housing, labor, health, and breeding. At the same time, market analysis from HighGround Dairy in late 2025 estimated that, under strong beef markets and structured beef‑on‑dairy programs, cull cows and beef‑on‑dairy calves together could add more than US$4.00 per hundredweight of milk shipped on some operations, and in another model, they projected beef‑related income above US$4.50 per hundredweight, with several months over US$5.00.

So those breeding calls—who gets sexed Holstein, who gets beef, which heifers you raise—aren’t cosmetic anymore. They’re big‑ticket cash‑flow decisions.

What I’ve found, talking with progressive herds in Ontario, Wisconsin, the northern Plains, and over in parts of Europe, is that the farms making the most consistent progress are letting genomics and economics set the main breeding direction. Then they use their eye to manage cows and fine‑tune individual decisions, not the other way around.

As Kent Weigel, who teaches dairy cattle genetics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and has spent years working with Holstein producers, likes to tell producer groups, genomics doesn’t replace good stockmanship; it just tells you things about a heifer you can’t see by looking at her—things like fertility, disease resistance, and how long she’s likely to stay in the herd. The eye still matters a lot for the day‑to‑day management side.

Looking at This Trend: What Color Really Tells You

Let’s start with the big myth on the coffee‑shop circuit: does coat color actually tell you anything reliable about a Holstein’s genetic merit for milk, fertility, or health?

On the black‑versus‑red side, a lot of the story runs through the melanocortin 1 receptor gene—MC1R—on chromosome 18. Geneticists have known for quite a while that MC1R is a central switch between black pigment and red/brown pigment across many species, and Holsteins fit right into that pattern. Holstein‑specific work from Canadian and U.S. labs shows that the main MC1R alleles—often called Dominant Black, Black/Red, wild‑type, and Recessive Red—largely determine whether a Holstein shows up as black‑and‑white or red‑and‑white on the outside.

A really interesting twist came in 2015, when a team publishing in PLOS ONE described a new Dominant Red coat pattern in Holsteins and tied it to a missense mutation in the COPA gene. They showed that this COPA variant acts through the pigment pathway and essentially overrides the usual MC1R signal, turning black areas red. The important point here is that their work was about coat color; they didn’t find evidence that COPA itself was a major driver of milk yield or fertility.

The classic black‑and‑white patch pattern has its own genetic story. Genome‑wide analyses in Holstein‑Friesians have repeatedly identified strong signals around the KIT gene on chromosome 6 and other pigmentation genes, such as MITF, as key players in spotting and patterning. That matches what many of us see in sire families—certain bulls stamp a recognizable pattern on their daughters.

Now, set that beside what we know about the heavy‑hitter milk genes. Large genome‑wide association studies in Holsteins, including recent work from Asia and Europe, continue to confirm major effects for milk yield, fat, and protein near DGAT1 on chromosome 14 and at several other regions. Reviews of milk‑trait genomics and meta‑analyses don’t flag MC1R or COPA as major milk‑yield QTL. They’re busy with DGAT1 and a suite of other production loci scattered around the genome.

So when you map this out, you see two fairly separate stories. One is the pigment story—MC1R, COPA, KIT, MITF. The other is the production story—DGAT1 and dozens of other loci that drive yield, fat, protein, and things like somatic cell score. Color genes just don’t show up as the big drivers of milk or fertility that we see in genomic evaluations.

That doesn’t mean you won’t find a cow family where “the red ones” or “the ones with more white” seem to be your better cows for a while. In a tight family, that absolutely happens. But genetically, what’s going on there is that you’re seeing a family package, not a universal rule. Across the breed, coat color by itself just isn’t a reliable shortcut to Net Merit, Pro$, or the overall profit indexes that matter to the milk cheque.

What Farmers Are Finding: Popular Sires and “Color Stories”

What farmers are finding, especially when you look back over a few decades of AI use, is that our “color stories” are usually really “family stories.”

Most of us can name the bulls that left a big genetic footprint in our barns: Shottle, Goldwyn, Planet, Mogul, Supersire, and now the current crop of genomic sires. Population geneticists call this “popular‑sire” or “founder” effect—when a relatively small number of bulls contribute a large share of the genes in a breed over a short period. A high‑density genomic study in Genetics Selection Evolution examined these selection signatures in Holstein‑Friesians and other breeds and found long stretches of DNA—haplotypes, where variation had been squeezed out by strong selection for milk, components, stature, and udder traits.

When you use a bull like that heavily, his daughters don’t just share his “under the hood” production package; they also share his visible stamp. So for a few generations, a particular pattern or “kind” can feel like it always goes with a particular level of performance. That’s real at the family level. But those haplotype blocks are made up of many linked genes, including both color and production loci. As time goes on and mating gets more diverse again, those blocks break up and recombine.

So inside a family, coat pattern can be a reasonable clue that you’re looking at daughters or granddaughters of a particular bull. At the breed level, the big studies just don’t support simple rules like “more white cows are always better cows.” The family resemblance is real; the population‑wide rule based on color is not.

Where Color Really Does Matter: Heat, Sun, and Lost Milk

Now, there is one place where coat color genuinely shows up in performance, and it has nothing to do with type scores or classification sheets. It’s heat.

Dark surfaces absorb more solar radiation than light surfaces; that’s just basic physics. Studies using thermal imaging and surface temperature sensors have shown that black patches of hair on cattle backs can run several degrees hotter than adjacent white patches when animals are in full sun. That extra absorbed heat adds to the load the cow has to get rid of.

A 2024 paper in the Journal of Dairy Science examined Holstein–Friesian crossbred cows in Tanzania and drew on earlier THI work on Holsteins. As the temperature‑humidity index moved into heat‑stress ranges, the researchers observed that rectal temperature, respiration rate, and panting scores all increased. At the same time, milk yield, milk fat percentage, and solids‑not‑fat percentage dropped. In other words, as cows got hotter, they gave less, and the component tests slipped too.

On pasture‑based systems in New Zealand and Australia, extension folks and researchers have seen the same basic pattern. Under heat stress, cows stand and pant more, graze less, and produce less milk unless they’ve got shade, water, and some form of cooling. Some work suggests that cows with lighter coats or slicker hair hold up a bit better under those conditions, which is why there’s been interest in breeding for heat tolerance in grazing systems.

One pretty eye‑catching example came out of CSIRO. Their team produced Holstein–Friesian calves from embryos edited at a coat‑dilution gene called PMEL. Those calves had lighter coats and, when they were put in the sun, took on less radiative heat than their darker‑coated herdmates. They’re strict research animals, not anything you’ll find on a commercial farm, but it shows how seriously some groups are taking the connection between coat, heat, and performance.

What This Means on Your Farm

Here’s how color and heat pencil out in different setups:

Your situation	Focus first on
Hot, high‑sun region or dry lot with limited shade (Central Valley, CA, parts of Texas/Florida, southern Europe)	Shade structures, fans, sprinklers, and good water access. Don’t count on breeding for more white to solve heat stress. Fix the environment first, because that’s where the biggest gains are.
Moderate climate with decent ventilation (Ontario, Wisconsin, Quebec, northern Europe)	Solid ventilation and transition‑period management first. Genomic testing and index‑based selection will move the needle more than fussing over color, though heat‑abating investments still pay on the worst days.
Pasture‑based with limited infrastructure (NZ‑style or U.S. grazing herds)	Shade and water access, careful grazing management on hot days, and—if the genetics are available—looking at heat‑tolerant and slick‑hair lines can help, especially as summers get hotter.

So yes, color does play a role in heat load, especially in hot, bright environments and in dry lot systems. It can absolutely show up as lost milk and tougher breeding if cows are constantly fighting heat stress. But even in those regions, coat color is one part of a bigger heat‑stress and cow‑comfort picture. It’s not a substitute for good ventilation, shade, or water, and it’s not a stand‑alone selection tool for profit.

What Genomics Has Actually Changed for Your Bottom Line

Now let’s talk about genomics, because that’s where the biggest shift has happened in how Holstein genetics translate into dollars.

When genomic evaluations came onto the scene in the U.S. and Canada around 2008–2010, the promise was pretty simple: use DNA information from young animals to predict their genetic merit before they have milking daughters, shorten generation intervals, and speed up genetic progress.

That big U.S. Holstein study in the National Academy Journal really put numbers to it. Once genomics was adopted, the sire‑of‑bull generation interval came down from roughly 6.8–6.9 years to about 2.4 years. Annual genetic gains for milk, fat, and protein almost doubled. For health and fertility traits such as somatic cell score, daughter pregnancy rate, and productive life, gains were three- to four‑fold.

More recent work, including a 2023 paper in the journal G3, has combined fertility traits into a single reproductive index and shown that there’s sufficient genomic signal to select for fertility, not just milk effectively. That lines up with what many of us have seen on real farms: herds that use genomic information well can walk that tightrope of driving production up while also improving fertility and udder health, rather than trading one off against the other.

So genomics gives you a much clearer window into traits your eye just can’t judge in a young heifer. You can’t see the daughter pregnancy rate or expected survival to third lactation by looking across the calf pen, but the DNA markers give you a probability estimate that, while not perfect, is a lot better than guessing.

The Cost Reality

Then there’s the math.

That Canadian heifer‑cost study we talked about pegged the average replacement cost at CA$2,904 per head, with many farms running well over CA$3,000. North American dairy budgets usually land in the US$1,800–2,500 range when you include feed for the entire rearing period, housing, labor, vet bills, and breeding costs.

On the testing side, commercial genomic panels—like CLARIFIDE and similar offerings—typically price out at US$35–50 per heifer in North America, depending on the panel and your volume.

Cost Component	Typical Range	Strategic Note
Feed (to 12–18 months)	$800–$1,200 USD	Largest single expense; improves with forage/commodity costs
Housing, bedding, utilities	$300–$500 USD	Per-heifer share of fixed barn and infrastructure
Labor (handling, health, records)	$250–$400 USD	Often underestimated; includes AI tech/vet time
Veterinary, vaccines, breeding	$200–$350 USD	Reproduction drugs, health treatments, AI straw(s)
TOTAL REARING COST (pre-calving)	$1,800–$2,500 USD	Average: ~$2,000 USD or ~$2,900 CAD per head
Genomic test (commercial panel)	$35–$50 USD	= 1.75–2.8% of total rearing cost
% of Heifers Typically Culled by Index (bottom 20–30%)	$360–$750 USD	Waste eliminated: cost of rearing low-index heifers avoided
Payoff: Genomi test cost recovered if you cull just 1–2 poor heifers per year	Break-even: ~$40–75 per year	Risk management, not a luxury

So when you step back, you’re talking about spending forty dollars to find out whether an animal is worth a two‑thousand‑dollar investment. For a lot of herds, that’s not a luxury; it’s basic risk management.

Looking at Inbreeding: Faster Progress, Tighter Gene Pools

Here’s where the story gets a bit uncomfortable. The same genomic tools that gave us faster gains have also made it very clear that tightening up the gene pool in Holsteins.

A North American Holstein study in BMC Genomics dug into runs of homozygosity—those long stretches of identical DNA on both chromosomes—and tracked them from animals born in 1990 through to 2016. They found that the average number of ROH segments at least 1 megabase long per animal went from around 57 in the 1990 cohort to about 82 in animals born by 2016. In the last five years of that period—right when genomic selection really took off—the yearly increase in these ROH segments was almost double what it had been earlier.

The authors made an important point: on a per‑generation basis, the increase in inbreeding wasn’t dramatic. But because the generation interval was so much shorter, you were stacking generations faster and building inbreeding per calendar year much more quickly.

Italian Holstein data tell a similar story. A 2022 paper in Frontiers in Veterinary Science looked at genetic diversity before and after genomic selection. Pedigree‑based inbreeding was around 7%, but genomic inbreeding, based on ROH, was clearly higher and rising faster, and the effective population size—a measure of how many “independent” genetic contributors you really have—was dropping. Follow‑up work linked higher genomic inbreeding to reduced stayability: more inbred cows simply didn’t stay in the herd as long.

So here’s the irony that’s worth sitting with for a minute. For years, a lot of us chased a very particular “look”—the Goldwyn kind, Shottle daughters, that tall, sharp cow. Then genomics came along, and many herds stopped worrying as much about that look and started chasing the top indexes instead. The data now say that in the process, we’ve pushed a lot harder on the same gene pool, faster, especially through very heavy use of a small number of elite bulls.

You look across your pens today, and the cows may not look as cookie‑cutter as those ‘90s flush families. But under the skin, genetically, they’re more closely related than most of us realize.

What You Can Do About It

The good news is that the same genomic tools that measure inbreeding can help you manage it.

A recent review from Italy on on‑farm genetic management describes how using genomic relationship matrices and “optimal contribution” strategies can balance genetic gain and inbreeding in dairy herds. What that means in practice is this: instead of just looking at pedigree inbreeding, you use the actual genomic relationships between your cows and potential sires to decide who should be the parents of the next crop of replacements.

On a real farm, that often comes down to:

Using mating programs that incorporate genomic relationship data, not just sire stacks and pedigree inbreeding.
Being careful about breeding a bull back too heavily to his own daughters and granddaughters.
Spreading your bull usage across a team of high‑index sires instead of hammering one or two “super sires.”
Sometimes, being willing to use a slightly lower‑index bull if he’s less related to your cow family and still meets your key trait goals.

It’s worth noting that no one is saying “stop selecting hard.” The point is to keep the inbreeding curve from getting too steep, so you don’t quietly paint yourself into a corner when it comes to health, fertility, or adaptability down the road.

Why the Eye Still Matters—and Where It Fits Now

So with all this talk about genomics and indexes, it’s fair to ask: where does your eye fit now?

In a lot of barns, what I’ve seen is that the role of the eye has shifted from being the primary genetic gatekeeper to being the primary management tool.

You know how this goes. You still need to walk pens and:

Spot a cow that’s just starting to limp before she’s three‑legged lame.
Watch body condition as cows move through the transition period to prevent crashes right after calving.
See how cows actually use stalls, bedding, waterers, robots, and feed lanes in your specific barn layout.
Catch fresh cows that are “just off” a bit before they show up in the software as a health case.

Genomic indexes and national evaluations can’t do that job. What they can do is take some of the guesswork out of which heifers you invest in and which cows you want daughters from.

At a genetics workshop in Ontario, one Holstein producer described that evolution nicely. He said he used to think his eye was the best tool he had. Now he sees it as his best management tool, while genomic tests tell him which heifers are actually worth raising. A lot of Midwestern and Quebec producers I’ve talked with would say something similar in their own words.

What This Means for Your Holstein Breeding Strategy

So let’s bring this back to your breeding plan, because that’s where all this needs to land.

Picture a 280‑cow Holstein freestall herd in Wisconsin or southwestern Ontario, shipping into a cheese market where butterfat and protein premiums really drive the cheque. Cows are averaging mid‑30s kilos per day with good components, the transition cows get a lot of attention, and the farm already uses some sexed semen and a bit of beef‑on‑dairy.

You could just as easily imagine a 120‑cow tie‑stall in Quebec or a 600‑cow dry lot system in California. The genetics math is the same; you just adjust the heat‑stress and housing parts.

Here’s what a practical, 2025‑ready strategy can look like.

1. Run a One‑Year Genomic Trial

One very low‑risk way to start is a “learn from your own data” trial over 12 months.

Test every heifer calf for a year. Take hair or tissue samples in the first week or two and send them to your preferred lab—Zoetis, Neogen, Lactanet, or your national provider—and ask for the main economic index your market uses, whether that’s Net Merit, Pro$, or LPI.
Keep making keep/cull and breeding decisions exactly the way you do now, based on dam performance, cow family, and what you see in the pen.
At the end of the year, sit down with your vet, nutritionist, or a genetics advisor and compare your actual decisions to the genomic rankings.

In many herds that have tried this, a familiar pattern pops up: there are some heifers you really liked visually that sit only middle‑of‑the‑pack on fertility and longevity indexes, and a few plainer heifers that rank near the top. Seeing that in your own animals tends to carry more weight than any sales pitch.

If your main criterion for keeping a heifer is how much white she has, what the genomic work and the big GWAS studies are saying is that you’re effectively betting a couple of thousand dollars on a trait that doesn’t even show up as a major driver in Net Merit or Pro$. That’s a tough bet to justify once you’ve seen your own data.

2. Let One Economic Index Be Your Compass

To keep it from being overwhelming, most herds do best if they pick one total merit index—Net Merit, Pro$, LPI, or the relevant national index—and let that act as the primary compass.

Heifer Tier (by Index Rank)	% of Herd	Semen Strategy	Expected Calf Outcome	Economic Note	Action
TOP 20–30% (High Index)	20–30%	Sexed Holstein(maximize daughters)	Female calves; all raised as dairy replacements (or top beef-cross if surplus)	Highest genetic merit; drives herd average; replacements carry forward strong genetics	Prioritize nutrition, health, transition management; track 1st lactation performance
MIDDLE 40–50%	40–50%	Conventional Holstein OR 50% sexed + 50% beef	Holstein bull calves (sold); crossbred calves (beef market); daughters retained if above-average herd	Balances dairy replacement supply with beef revenue; some genetic gain but not peak	Monitor calf sex ratio; align with real replacement needs; consider beef-market strength
BOTTOM 15–25%	15–25%	Beef Semen(Angus, Simmental, etc.)	Crossbred calves premium beef market (black hides command premium); no dairy daughters	Maximizes calf value ($400–600/head vs. $50–100 for dairy bull); eliminates low-merit dairy genetics; often breaks even or profitable on rearing cost	Fast-track to beef channel; NO heifer rearing; recoup heifer costs via calf value
PROBLEM COWS (repeat breeders, chronic mastitis, severe structural defects)	5–10%	Beef Semen	Crossbred calves to beef	Removes undesirable traits from breeding; converts problem cows into profitable calf source	Terminal decision; one more calf, then cull

Then you:

Rank all heifers and young cows by that index, high to low.
Decide on a cutoff—maybe the bottom 10–20% or a certain dollar amount below your herd average—below which you don’t raise heifers as dairy replacements.
Use that ranking to structure semen use:
- Top tier: sexed Holstein semen on the females you want daughters from.
- Middle tier: conventional Holstein semen.
- Bottom tier and problem cows (chronic mastitis, very poor feet, reproduction issues): beef semen.

This is where the math really shows up. If you’re putting US$35–50 into a genomic test and US$1,800–2,500 into rearing a heifer, using that index ranking to decide who gets a replacement slot and who doesn’t will change your cost per hundredweight over the next few years.

3. Use Mating Programs to Manage Inbreeding

The next step is to ensure your mating program uses genomic data to mitigate inbreeding.

It’s worth asking your AI rep or mating service a couple of direct questions:

Are you using genomic relationship information, or just pedigree, to calculate inbreeding risk?
Can you show me the expected genomic inbreeding for each proposed mating?

Given that both the North American and Italian Holstein studies show faster increases in genomic inbreeding and more ROH in the genomic‑selection era, it makes sense to watch this. Some advisors suggest targeting expected genomic inbreeding for replacement heifers in the mid‑single digits, where practical, and only accepting higher values when you’re getting a very significant bump in other traits. The exact target will depend on your herd and sire options, but the principle is to avoid stacking closely related bulls on closely related cows over and over.

In practice, that often looks like still using the elite bulls, but spreading their use across more unrelated cow families, rotating between several high‑index sires instead of just one or two, and sometimes choosing the “second‑highest” bull on a list because he’s less related to your cows, while still very strong on your key traits.

4. Line Up Sexed and Beef Semen With Your Index and Markets

Genomics also helps answer a very practical question: which cows should make your next generation of Holstein replacements, and which should be making calves for the beef market?

Those HighGround Dairy numbers we talked about—over US$4.00 per hundredweight of milk in some scenarios from cull cow and beef‑on‑dairy calf revenue, and earlier projections with several months over US$5.00—show just how big that lever has become on the income side when beef markets are favorable. At the same time, semen‑sales trends and processor programs in North America and Europe show beef‑on‑dairy has become mainstream, especially where packers and branded programs pay up for black‑hided crossbred calves.

A genomics‑aligned plan that a lot of progressive herds are using looks like this:

Sexed Holstein semen on the top 20–40% of females by your chosen index—the ones you really want daughters from.
Conventional Holstein semen is on the middle group, where you still want some dairy bull calves and a share of replacements.
Beef semen on the bottom tier and on cows with traits you don’t want to multiply, such as chronic mastitis, repeat breeders, or severe structural issues.

Combine that with your heifer‑raising cost numbers and your local calf market, and you start to get a very clear picture of where your breeding dollars and semen investments are actually coming back to you.

5. Keep Your Eye in Its Best Role

Through all of this, your eye stays central. It’s just playing a different position on the team.

You know your cows. You know who milks through tough rations, who bounces back after a hard calving in the transition period, and who always seems to find trouble. That day‑to‑day cow sense is the piece no index can replicate.

What genomics does is help you decide which calves deserve the chance to become that kind of cow in the first place. It narrows the group, so you’re not putting full rearing costs into animals that were never likely to reach third or fourth lactation under your system.

Looking Ahead: Diversity, Climate, and the Holstein of 2050

If we zoom out past next year’s milk cheque and think about the Holstein cow of 2040 or 2050, three big forces keep coming up in both research papers and barn‑aisle conversations: genetic diversity, climate, and markets.

On the diversity side, the North American ROH work and the Italian Holstein studies send a pretty consistent message: genomic inbreeding is rising, and effective population size is shrinking in intensively selected Holstein populations. No one credible is predicting a sudden cliff, but there is a very real concern that if we keep pushing hard on a narrow gene pool, we could slowly chip away at the breed’s ability to adapt to new diseases, production systems, or environmental pressures.

On the climate side, more frequent heat waves and higher average summer temperatures are already a reality in parts of the U.S., southern Europe, and elsewhere. That 2024 Journal of Dairy Science review that pulled together heat‑stress studies put numbers on what many of you see in the barn: as THI climbs, cows eat less, energy‑corrected milk drops, and the strain shows up in both milk yield and reproduction. Some of the work digs into the biology—oxidative stress, rumen changes—but the bottom line is simple enough: hot cows don’t use feed efficiently and don’t breed as well.

On the market side, we’re seeing more beef‑on‑dairy programs, more milk cheques driven by components and quality premiums, and more processor attention to consistency and welfare. All of that favors cows that stay in the herd, handle stress, and breed back reliably, not just cows that peak high in first lactation.

What’s encouraging is that we’ve got better tools than ever to work with:

Genomic inbreeding and relationship data, not just pedigree estimates.
Mating strategies like optimal contribution that let you balance genetic gain and inbreeding.
Economic indexes that include fertility, udder health, productive life, and sometimes feed efficiency, alongside milk and butterfat.
A growing body of heat‑stress research to guide decisions on ventilation, shade, sprinklers, and water management.
Beef‑on‑dairy programs and pricing signals that can pay you properly for the right kind of crossbred calves.

The challenge is putting those tools together in a way that fits your herd size, your barns, your labor situation, and the markets you’re shipping into.

The Bottom Line

So if we’re back at that kitchen table and you ask, “Alright, what should I actually do with all this?”, here’s how I’d boil it down into concrete moves for the next year or two.

Run a one‑year genomic test trial on all heifer calves. Don’t change your decisions for that year—just compare what you did to what the index ranking suggests at the end and see where your eye and the DNA agree or disagree.
Pick one economic index—Net Merit, Pro$, LPI, or your national equivalent—and use it as your main compass to sort females into top, middle, and bottom tiers for semen strategy and replacement decisions.
Ask your mating program provider to show you genomic inbreeding for planned matings, not just pedigree inbreeding, and work together to avoid pushing replacement heifers into very high genomic inbreeding levels.
Line up sexed Holstein and beef semen use with both your index ranking and your real replacement needs, keeping today’s heifer‑raising costs and beef‑on‑dairy calf values in mind.
Take a hard look at your heat‑stress plan before next summer—especially if you’re in hot regions or dry lot systems—and ask whether your shade, fans, sprinklers, and water access match what the research and your own cows are telling you.

The herds that lean into this in the next five years will quietly build cows that last longer and earn more per stall. The ones that keep breeding by color and habit will feel it in higher heifer costs, more inbreeding‑related headaches, and fewer options when weather or markets shift on them.

What this whole development suggests is that the next chapter in Holstein breeding isn’t about arguing whether the eye or the computer is “right.” It’s about putting them in the right jobs and letting them work together.

And if we keep sharing what’s actually working—how herds are using genomic tests, indexes, mating programs, heat‑stress strategies, and beef‑on‑dairy opportunities—then, as a group, we’re in a strong position to keep Holsteins productive, profitable, and adaptable well into 2050.

As for color? It’ll probably always be part of how we talk about Holsteins and the kind of cow we like to look at. It just doesn’t need to be driving the bus anymore.

Key Takeaways:

Breeding by coat color won’t move your index. Pigment genes like MC1R and COPA are far from the major milk and fertility loci, so selecting heifers based on “more white” doesn’t reliably improve Net Merit or Pro$.
Genomics doubled genetic gain—and sped up inbreeding. Sire generation intervals dropped from ~7 years to ~2.5 years, nearly doubling annual progress, but genomic inbreeding and runs of homozygosity are climbing faster per calendar year as a result.
Color matters for heat stress, not genetic merit. In hot climates and dry lots, darker coats absorb more solar load, pushing cows into heat stress sooner and costing milk, components, and fertility when cooling falls short.
Beef-on-dairy can add $4+/cwt when done right. HighGround Dairy’s 2025 modelling shows well-structured beef programs can add more than US$4.00/cwt to margins in favorable markets—real money that changes breeding math.
A $40 genomic test protects a $2,000 bet on a heifer. With rearing costs often US$1,800–2,500, using index rankings to decide who gets sexed semen and a replacement slot is risk management, not a luxury. Your eye then shifts to its best role: daily cow management and fresh-cow troubleshooting.

Executive Summary:

Many Holstein herds are still quietly letting coat color and “kind” influence breeding decisions, even though pigment genes like MC1R and COPA sit on different parts of the genome than the big milk and fertility loci that large Holstein GWAS keep identifying. Genomic selection has roughly doubled genetic gain in U.S. Holsteins by cutting sire generation intervals from about 7 years to about 2.5 years, but North American and Italian data also make it clear that genomic inbreeding and runs of homozygosity are rising faster per calendar year as a result. New heat‑stress research backs up what producers in hot regions and dry lot systems see every summer—darker coats absorb more solar load, cows hit heat stress sooner, and milk and components slip—while 2025 modelling from HighGround Dairy shows well‑designed beef‑on‑dairy programs can contribute more than US$4.00 per hundredweight of milk shipped to margins when markets are favorable. With heifer‑raising costs often in the US$1,800–2,500 (or CA$2,000–3,000) range, spending about US$40 on a genomic test to decide which calves actually justify that investment is, in many cases, simple risk management rather than a luxury. This article gives producers a concrete playbook: run a one‑year “test every heifer” trial, use one economic index as the main compass, use genomic mating tools to manage inbreeding, and align sexed Holstein and beef semen use with both index rankings and true replacement needs. The core message is that if you stop breeding by color and start breeding by genomics, heat‑stress realities, and beef‑on‑dairy math, you give your Holstein herd a much better shot at stronger per‑stall margins between now and 2030.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Selective Breeding: The Art and Science of Beef-on-Dairy – Stop guessing at the bunk and start capturing market premiums. This breakdown delivers a field-tested protocol for selecting terminal sires that guarantee the carcass quality beef buyers demand, transforming your bottom-tier cows into high-margin profit centers.
Navigating the 2025 Dairy Economy: Maximizing Margins in a Volatile Market – Master the shifting financial landscape by aligning your herd expansion goals with current global supply trends. This analysis arms you with the economic foresight to hedge against rising input costs while maximizing your milk-to-beef revenue ratio through 2028.
Gene Editing and the Dairy Industry: Beyond the Horizon – Break past traditional breeding limits by leveraging CRISPR and slick-gene technology to heat-proof your herd. This deep dive exposes the genetic advancements that will define cow comfort and performance as climate volatility becomes the new normal for global producers.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Genetics

Tags : beef-on-dairy, Breeding Strategy, dairy farm margins, dairy genetics, Genomic Testing, heat stress in cattle, Holstein profitability

Beef-on-Dairy’s $3,000 Trap: 800,000 Missing Heifers and Who Pays the Bill

Saturday, January 17th, 2026

If your only beef-on-dairy metric is today’s calf cheque, you’re ignoring the $3,000 heifer bill with your name on it.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Beef‑on‑dairy has been a cash‑flow hero for many herds, but the big math now flashing red is hard to ignore: 7.9 million beef straws into dairy cows, 800,000 fewer heifers ahead, and replacement prices already north of US$3,000 in many regions. USDA counts just 3.914 million dairy replacements as of January 1, 2025—the lowest since 1978—while CoBank projects inventories will shrink by about 800,000 head before recovering near 2027, right as roughly US$10 billion in new processing capacity comes online and needs milk. What’s interesting here is that the article shows reproduction, not semen color, is the real gatekeeper: herds under roughly 20% 21‑day PR that breed heavily to beef aren’t just “cashing in,” they’re effectively scheduling a heifer shortage and future cheques for someone else’s US$3,000 heifers. Drawing on economic modeling from Albert De Vries, PhD (University of Florida), and sector work by Jan Hulshof, PhD (Wageningen), it outlines practical “guard rails” for how much beef‑on‑dairy a herd can safely run at different PR levels, especially when combined with genomics and sexed semen on the top genetics. A five‑question framework then helps producers stress‑test their own program—repro, heifer pipeline, genomic use, calf/transition management, and calf marketing—so they can see whether they’re building a sustainable strategy or quietly writing a US$30,000–60,000‑a‑year heifer bill for 2027 and beyond. The takeaway is simple but not always comfortable: beef‑on‑dairy is a powerful profitability tool, but only when it sits on top of strong reproduction and disciplined heifer planning instead of short‑term calf prices.

If you sit down with dairy folks this winter—from big freestalls in Wisconsin to tie‑stalls in Ontario to those dry lot systems in the Texas Panhandle—you’ll hear a familiar line: “Beef‑on‑dairy really helped our cash flow… and now we’re wondering where the heifers went.”

What’s interesting is that this isn’t just coffee‑shop talk. The national numbers are telling the same story a lot of you are seeing when you walk past your heifer pens—and now we’re staring at US$3,000‑plus heifer tags when it comes time to fill the gaps.

The latest Regular Members Semen Sales Report from the National Association of Animal Breeders (NAAB) shows that in 2024, U.S. producers bought about 9.7 million units of beef semen, and roughly 7.9 million of those units were used in dairy herds, not beef herds. Industry reports indicate that more than 4 out of 5 beef straws in the U.S. now go into dairy cows.

At the same time, USDA’s January 1, 2025, cattle inventory report put the U.S. beef cow herd at about 27.86 million head. Analysts at Angus Journal and university extension have highlighted that the smallest U.S. beef cow herd since the early 1960s is down several million head from where it sat in 2019. So we’ve got record beef semen use in dairies sitting on top of the tightest beef cow numbers in more than half a century.

And here’s where the conversation really sharpens. CoBank’s dairy team, led by Corey Geiger, MBA, released a 2025 analysis showing that U.S. dairy replacement heifer inventories are already at about a 20‑year low and could shrink by an estimated 800,000 head over the next two years before starting to rebound closer to 2027. That same CoBank work highlights that roughly 10 billion dollars in new dairy processing capacity, much of it cheese and ingredient plants that live on butterfat performance and protein, is scheduled to be online by 2027. Those plants will need milk, and milk needs cows.

Year	Replacement Heifers (M)	New Capacity Online (USD B)
2023	3.951	$2.1
2024	3.914	$4.2
2025	3.85 (proj)	$6.8
2026	3.78 (proj)	$8.9
2027	3.81 (recovery begins)	$10.2 (peak)
2028	3.95	$10.2+ (operational)

So the real question isn’t just “Is beef‑on‑dairy a good idea?” It’s “Given where milk, beef, and heifer supplies are heading, is the way we’re using beef‑on‑dairy going to build our business—or back us into buying very expensive heifers a couple of years from now?”

Let’s walk through that together, the way we’d talk it through over coffee at the kitchen table.

How We Got Here: Three Big Shifts That Opened the Door

Looking at this trend, three big changes really opened the gate for beef‑on‑dairy: sexed semen that finally works well enough to plan around, genomics that actually drive decisions, and a beef cow herd that’s the smallest it’s been in decades.

1. Sexed semen finally got reliable enough to plan around

You probably remember the early days of sexed semen. Back in the late 2000s and early 2010s, university trials and extension bulletins regularly reported conception rates 25–30 percent lower than conventional semen in many herds, and that matched what plenty of us saw in our own breeding records. It was great when it worked, but too many repeats and open cows made it a tough sell outside a handful of show heifers or elite donors.

Over the last decade, that story has shifted. With improved sorting technology, better extenders, and higher sperm numbers per straw, modern sexed semen has narrowed the gap. Extension educators and field data now suggest that in well‑managed heifer programs, sexed semen often delivers conception rates in the mid‑40 percent range, sometimes approaching 50 percent in top herds, while conventional semen on the same heifers tends to run about 5–10 points higher. In cows, the difference is often similar or slightly wider, and it’s more sensitive to fresh-cow management and heat detection.

So in real‑world terms, what farmers are finding in solid heifer programs is that sexed semen now runs roughly 75–85 percent of conventional conception rates, with a few very dialed‑in herds creeping up closer to 90 percent. That aligns with the research summaries from land‑grant universities and industry meetings. It still demands good transition‑period care, sharp heat detection, and careful semen handling, but it’s finally good enough to build a replacement strategy around instead of just dabbling.

2. Genomics went from “nice‑to‑have” to “we actually use this”

The second big shift is genomics. Ten or twelve years ago, genotyping felt like something that happened in AI stud offices and a few elite Holstein barns. Today, millions of animals are genotyped, and research from USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) shows that genomic evaluations for young heifers deliver substantially higher reliability than old‑style parent averages for traits like milk, fat, protein, daughter pregnancy rate, and some health traits.

What I’ve noticed, especially in Midwest and Ontario herds that are leaning into this, is that once producers start using genomic rankings, it changes the conversation around both beef‑on‑dairy and replacement rearing:

Heifer calves get genotyped through CDCB‑approved programs.
The herd ranks them on Net Merit, Pro$, or a custom index that weights production, components, fertility, mastitis resistance, and longevity in line with how their milk is priced.
The best group becomes the “sexed semen group,” a middle group is flexible, and a lower‑merit group is deliberately steered toward beef semen or not raised at all.

In an economic simulation published in JDS Communications, Albert De Vries, PhD, at the University of Florida, and colleagues modeled this kind of strategy—sexed semen on the top end, beef semen on the bottom, genomics guiding who’s who—and found that income from calves over semen and rearing costs improved compared with a simple “all dairy semen” approach. That finding lines up with what many progressive herds report: they raise fewer marginal heifers, capture more value from beef‑on‑dairy calves that never belonged in the milking string, and keep their replacement pipeline more intentional.

3. The beef cow herd shrank—and it’s not bouncing back quickly

The third piece is beef. USDA’s cattle inventory reports show the U.S. beef cow herd has dropped from around 31.7 million head in 2019 to 27.86 million as of January 1, 2025. Extension economists note this is the smallest beef cow herd the U.S. has seen since the early 1960s, driven by multi‑year drought in the Plains and West, high feed costs, and an aging rancher base that hasn’t rushed to rebuild.

Rabobank’s beef team analyzed cow–calf returns over the last decade and found that from 2013 to 2017, U.S. cow–calf operations averaged about 153 U.S. dollars per cow per year. From 2018 through 2022, those returns flipped negative, averaging roughly minus 21 dollars per head per year when revenue was stacked up against operating costs, labor, taxes, and insurance. When you put drought risk on top of that, it’s not surprising that a lot of ranchers were slow to restock.

On the dairy side, CoBank points out that U.S. dairy is in the midst of an historic processing build‑out—about $ 10 billion in new or expanded plants, largely focused on cheese and ingredients that reward butterfat and protein. Those plants will want milk, and they’ll want it relatively quickly over the next couple of years.

Meanwhile, industry sales data using CattleFax estimates show beef‑on‑dairy calves going from about 410,000 head in 2018 to around 2.6 million in 2022. An American Association of Bovine Practitioners (AABP) paper titled “The future of dairy‑beef in cattle production,” led by Daniel Grooms, DVM, PhD, at Michigan State University, projects that with widespread use of sexed semen, more than 3.5 million beef‑on‑dairy animals could be entering the U.S. fed beef supply annually in some scenarios.

So this development suggests a pretty clear story: fewer native beef calves, more dairy cows bred to beef, tight heifer numbers, and big new processors coming online. Beef‑on‑dairy has moved from side‑gig to structural pillar in a hurry.

Two Ways Herds Are Using Beef‑on‑Dairy—and Why the Outcomes Look So Different

Once you accept that the big‑picture economics support beef‑on‑dairy, the real question becomes: “How are we using it on our farm?” That’s where you start to see two very different paths.

The “surgical” approach: disciplined, data‑driven, and usually well‑rewarded

Picture a 750‑cow Holstein freestall in eastern Wisconsin or a 1,200‑cow dry lot herd in California’s Central Valley. They’re working with a herd veterinarian, a PhD nutritionist who lives in the fresh cow data, and a genetics adviser who knows their goals cold.

What farmers are finding in operations like this is that beef‑on‑dairy is treated like a scalpel, not a sledgehammer:

Almost every heifer calf is genotyped within 60 days of birth.
Twice a year, cows and heifers are ranked on a profit‑focused index (Net Merit, Pro$, or a custom index using CDCB and herd data).
Breeding decisions follow that ranking very closely:
- Top 35–40 percent get sexed dairy semen on first service and often second.
- A middle 20–30 percent is a “swing group” that may get sexed, conventional, or beef, depending on projected heifer needs.
- The bottom 30–35 percent get beef semen exclusively.

On the beef side, they’re using bulls from programs built for beef‑on‑dairy—high calving ease, strong marbling and ribeye EPDs, moderate mature size, and documented performance on dairy crosses, drawing from Beef Improvement Federation guidelines and AI stud beef‑on‑dairy sire lists. They’re not just chasing black hides; they’re aiming for cattle that will grow, grade, and hang a carcass the packer wants.

Those calves usually aren’t disappearing into the local sale barn. Many go into integrated dairy‑beef programs in Nebraska, Kansas, and the High Plains. These programs typically require:

Recorded sire IDs and, ideally, dam information.
Colostrum measured by Brix refractometer, with documented volumes and timing.
Specific vaccination and weaning protocols.
Consistent shipping ages and weights.

In return, feedlots and packers share performance and carcass data, including average daily gain, health outcomes, liver scores, dressing percentage, quality, and yield grades. National Beef Quality Audit (NBQA) reports show that marbling scores and the share of carcasses grading Choice and Prime are at or near record highs, and dairy‑influenced cattle contribute to that when they’re managed appropriately. Research from Texas Tech and other universities has shown that when marbling levels and cooking conditions are matched, consumers generally rate steaks from dairy‑influenced cattle as comparable in tenderness and flavor to those from conventional beef breeds.

That’s why well‑documented dairy‑beef calves from known programs are often bringing a clear premium over generic calves at similar weights in recent sale reports. In herds that follow this “surgical” approach, beef‑on‑dairy fits cleanly into a bigger system: repro, genetics, calf care, and marketing all point in the same direction.

The “volume” approach: chasing calf prices, then feeling the heifer pinch

Now let’s think about a more typical picture for a lot of farms in the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Ontario: a 250‑ to 400‑cow herd, solid people, busy days, plenty going on.

In 2022 and 2023, many of these barns saw local auction reports and buyer bids showing very strong prices for crossbred beef‑on‑dairy calves—often several hundred U.S. dollars higher than straight Holstein bull calves of similar weight. In some U.S. regions and Canadian sales, top‑end dairy‑beef calves were creeping into the upper hundreds of dollars and, at times, flirting with four‑figure prices if they were the right type at the right time.

So they did what any rational business would do in that moment: they leaned into beef semen.

Maybe 50–60 percent of cows got bred to beef, often targeting older or softer cows, but usually without genomic data to define “bottom end.”
Heifers saw some sexed semen, more to “make sure we have enough heifers” than as part of a tightly modeled plan.
Calves were sold through local barns as beef crosses, with basic colostrum and vaccinations, but few records following them, and no integrated program specs.

For a year or two, those calf cheques looked great. Pens were busy. It felt like the right move.

Then, USDA and CoBank put some harder numbers to the national heifer picture. They highlighted that on January 1, 2025, the U.S. had just 3.914 million dairy replacement heifers—down from 3.951 million the year before and the lowest since 1978. CoBank’s report projected that inventories could shrink by around 800,000 head over the next two years before recovering in 2027, and that high‑quality heifers were already bringing record prices with potential to go “well above $3,000 per head” in many regions.

When these “volume” beef‑on‑dairy herds sat down with their advisors and laid out heifer inventories by age—0–6, 6–12, 12–18, 18–24 months—and rolled those forward against their normal cull rate, some discovered they were on track to be 20–40 heifers short of their usual replacement needs for 2026–2027. In the same breath, market reports in the U.S. and Canada showed quality replacements bringing about US$3,000 or more in tight U.S. areas and C$4,000–5,000 at special sales in parts of Ontario and Western Canada.

So the narrative quietly shifted from “Beef‑on‑dairy saved our cash flow” to “We might have to buy a truckload of very expensive heifers because we got ahead of our repro and replacement planning.”

On top of that, feedlots and packers have been vocal—through AABP sessions, NBQA debriefs, and trade press—about preferring calves from known herds with documented genetics and health histories, and discounting anonymous calves where they don’t know what they’re getting. That gap in value between “program calves” and “generic black calves” has widened as more dairy‑beef cattle hit the system.

Same toolbox: sexed semen, beef semen, genomics. Very different outcomes.

What Packers and Feedlots Are Really Saying About Dairy‑Beef

When you listen closely to packer reps and feedlot managers at meetings or in interviews, they’re not out to shut down dairy‑beef. What they want is cattle that work on their end of the ledger.

The good news: they like how it eats

From a meat‑quality standpoint, dairy‑influenced cattle can be a real asset:

The 2022 National Beef Quality Audit reported that marbling scores were the highest ever recorded in the NBQA series, with a larger share of carcasses grading Choice and Prime than in previous audits. Dairy‑influenced cattle, both Holstein and beef‑on‑dairy crosses, contribute to those marbling numbers when they’re fed and managed well.
Research at Texas Tech and other universities, summarized in dairy and beef industry media, has shown that when marbling and cooking conditions are similar, consumer taste panels often rate steaks from dairy‑cross and conventional beef cattle similarly for tenderness and flavor.

So from the consumer’s perspective—knife and fork in hand—well‑finished dairy‑beef can perform just fine.

The pain points: health, conformation, and dressing percentage

Where the challenges show up is in three familiar areas:

Liver health. NBQA findings and packer feedback point to liver abscesses as a persistent and costly issue, particularly in some high‑grain finishing programs, and the AABP dairy‑beef paper flags liver abscess rates as a key concern in some dairy‑beef pens. Each condemned liver is lost value and is usually a sign that subclinical health issues have already trimmed average daily gain.
Carcass conformation. Holsteins and many dairy crosses tend to be narrower and more framey than traditional beef steers at a given weight. Board‑invited reviews in Translational Animal Science have noted that this can make it harder to hit certain boxed beef and steak‑size specs, especially for programs that want a consistent ribeye size or steak portion.
Dressing percentage. Those same reviews and multiple feedlot trials show dairy‑influenced cattle generally dress lower than conventional beef steers. Even a couple of points difference in dressing percentage can mean a meaningful shift in dollars per head on most grids.

What’s encouraging is that none of this is a deal‑breaker. The AABP paper and extension work on dairy‑beef and surplus calf management emphasize that strong colostrum programs, consistent calf rearing, thoughtful step‑up rations, and smart sire selection can make dairy‑beef cattle very competitive. The key is whether those calves show up as part of a system that’s designed for that, or as random calves with unknown histories.

The 2026 Heifer Squeeze: A Lagging Result of 2023–2024 Choices

Now let’s swing back to replacements, because that’s where this all lands for most herds.

You already know the biology, but it helps to line it up with the calendar:

Breed a cow today, and if she settles, you get a calf in about nine months.
If that calf is a heifer and you raise her, she’ll freshen roughly 22–24 months later, depending on your heifer program.

So the heifers freshening in 2026 are mostly the product of what you bred in 2023 and early 2024—the exact period when beef‑on‑dairy semen use really spiked.

NAAB’s semen data shows that domestic beef semen sales hit new highs in 2023 and 2024, with about 9.7 million beef units sold in 2024 and 7.9 million of those going into dairy herds. USDA’s January 2025 cattle report pegged dairy replacement heifers at 3.914 million head, down from 3.951 million a year earlier and the lowest since 1978.

CoBank’s 2025 heifer report took those numbers, combined them with typical calving and culling patterns, and concluded that total replacement heifer inventories are likely to shrink by around 800,000 head over the next two years before starting to rebound near 2027. They also noted that high‑quality heifers have already reached record values—well above US$3,000 per head in some U.S. regions—and could move higher if supplies tighten as expected.

So if you’re looking at your heifer pens this winter and thinking, “This feels thinner than it should be,” you’re not alone—and you’re not imagining it. Part of that is the national picture. Part of it traces straight back to how aggressively you used beef semen in 2023–2024 relative to your reproduction and heifer‑raising performance.

How Much Beef‑on‑Dairy Can Your Herd Really Support?

Here’s where fresh cow management and reproduction quietly decide how far you can safely push beef‑on‑dairy.

Looking at this trend, the consistent message out of economic modeling and extension work is that the 21‑day pregnancy rate is the key gatekeeper. In a series of papers, De Vries and co‑authors showed that the higher the 21‑day PR, the more room a herd has to use beef semen without starving itself for replacements, especially when using sexed semen on the top genetics.

Putting it into everyday terms—and blending what the models say with what consultants see—these “guard rails” keep popping up:

21‑day PR under about 20 percent. For most herds in this band, it’s hard enough just to make enough replacement heifers with mostly dairy semen. Modeling and field experience suggest that if you’re in this range and breeding a big chunk of the herd to beef, you’re almost certainly scheduling a heifer shortage and future heifer purchases.
21‑day PR in the 20–25 percent range. At this level, there’s usually room for some beef‑on‑dairy—often something like 20–30 percent of matings—if you’re using sexed semen on your best cows and heifers and actually tracking your heifer pipeline by age group. But there’s not much slack for a spike in culls or a health event in the heifer program.
21‑day PR in the 25–30 percent range. Here, the economics and the farm‑level stories line up: many herds can support roughly 35–45 percent of breedings to beef semen and stay self‑replacing, provided they keep heifer losses modest and stick to a genomic or performance‑based ranking for who gets sexed semen.
21‑day PR consistently above 30 percent. Once herds reach 30 percent 21‑day PR, with solid transition performance and steady culling, they often have substantial flexibility. These herds can frequently breed around half—or a bit more—of their cows to beef semen and still maintain or even grow herd size, as long as they’re disciplined about using sexed semen on the right animals.

That 2023 Animals paper from Wageningen University & Research, led by Jan Hulshof, PhD, reached a similar conclusion in European modeling: beef‑on‑dairy improves efficiency and profitability when combined with sexed semen and strong reproduction, but it creates pressure on replacements and can raise welfare issues if used mainly to chase high calf prices without that foundation.

If you want the blunt version of what’s hiding in those graphs, it’s this: if your 21‑day PR is under 20 percent and roughly half your services are to beef, in most herds you don’t have a beef‑on‑dairy strategy—you have a scheduled heifer problem.

To make this more concrete, let’s run a quick example.

Say you run a 300‑cow herd with a 32 percent annual cull rate. That means you need about 96 replacement heifers freshening each year just to hold steady.

At 25 percent 21‑day PR, using a mix of dairy and sexed semen, you might reasonably expect to produce enough heifers to replace those 96 cows and keep a small buffer, as long as calf and heifer losses are modest. If 30 percent of your breedings are to beef semen, you’ll likely still be self‑replacing.

But if you push beef to 50 percent of services at that same 25 percent PR, simple spreadsheet math often shows a shortfall—maybe 10–20 heifers per year—that you’ll need to cover with purchases. At US$3,000 per head, that’s US$30,000–60,000 a year in heifer purchases that quietly offset a lot of those earlier calf cheques.

Now imagine that same herd at 30 percent 21‑day PR. With stronger repro and the same cull rate, the modeling and real‑world experience suggest you can often support 40–50 percent of matings to beef and still have enough heifers coming, especially if you’re steering sexed semen toward your best genetics and managing heifer losses tightly. That’s where beef‑on‑dairy becomes a sustainable part of the business rather than a short‑term cash grab.

For Canadian quota herds, where expansion room is limited, and every cow slot carries its own capital cost, this math gets even tighter. You can’t just “buy more quota” to cover a heifer shortfall the way a U.S. herd might buy more cows. Getting the beef‑on‑dairy balance wrong means either paying top dollar for scarce heifers or watching your production rights sit underutilized while you wait for replacements to catch up.

A Simple “Over‑Coffee” Framework to Check Your Own Program

When this topic comes up at winter meetings or around kitchen tables, we often end up sketching the same handful of questions on a napkin. Here’s a simple framework you can walk through with your own team.

Metric	Scenario A: Disciplined (30% Beef)	Scenario B: Aggressive (50% Beef)	Year-Over-Year Impact
Herd Size	300 cows	300 cows	—
21-Day PR	25%	25%	—
Annual Culls (32% rate)	96 cows	96 cows	—
Heifers Needed (replacement buffer)	96–100	96–100	—
Beef Semen %	30%	50%	—
Female Calves Born (annual)	~1,200	~1,200	—
Expected Dairy Heifer Calves	~588	~588	—
Heifers Raised to 24m	~540 (with 8% loss)	~540 (with 8% loss)	—
Heifers Freshening Annually	~102	~96	Shortage: 6 heifers
Cumulative 2-Year Shortage	0 (self-replacing)	16–20 heifers	—
Replacement Heifer Cost (2026–2027)	$0 (self-replacing)	$48,000–60,000 (at $3,000/head)	+$50,000/2 years
Avg. Annual Beef Calf Premium (2023–24)	$180/calf × 360 calves = $64,800	$220/calf × 600 calves = $132,000	+$67,200 gross
Premium Over 2 Years (2024–2025)	$129,600	$264,000	+$134,400
Less: Heifer Purchase Bill (2026–2027)	$0	–$54,000	–$54,000
Less: Heifer Management Opportunity Cost	~$12,000	~$18,000	–$6,000
Net Advantage After 3-Year Cycle	$129,600 cumulative	$186,400 cumulative	+$56,800
BUT: Scenario B at Risk If PR Drops or Culls Rise	Stable	Deficit grows fast	Vulnerable

1. Where’s your reproduction really at?

Start here, every time:

What’s your true rolling 12‑month 21‑day pregnancy rate—not just your best month last summer?
Are transition‑period problems like metritis, ketosis, and displaced abomasum dragging that number down more than semen choice is?
When did you last review voluntary waiting period, heat detection (visual plus activity systems), and AI timing with your vet or repro consultant?

Land‑grant extension programs from places like the University of Wisconsin, Penn State, and Cornell keep showing that investments in cow comfort, fresh cow management, and heat detection often deliver some of the strongest returns in dairy herds. Without that foundation, changing semen color won’t fix the underlying issue.

2. Do you truly know your heifer pipeline?

What farmers are finding is that a simple age‑structured heifer count is one of the most eye‑opening tools you can use:

How many heifers do you have today in each age band: 0–6, 6–12, 12–18, 18–24 months?
If you project those forward and apply your typical cull rate and target herd size, will you have enough first‑lactation cows to hold or grow your herd in 2027 and 2028?
If you assume you won’t buy heifers, what does your herd size look like three years out?

CoBank did this math on the national herd and came up with that projected 800,000‑head shortfall. Doing it on your own numbers will tell you very quickly whether your current beef‑on‑dairy level makes sense—or whether it’s quietly eating tomorrow’s replacements.

3. Is genomics actually changing your decisions?

Genomics is only worth paying for if it changes what you do:

Are genomic results directly influencing which animals get sexed semen, which get beef, and which aren’t raised?
Are there heifers that look “good” to the eye but that the genomic numbers clearly put at the bottom of the list, that you’re still raising?

CDCB, USDA‑ARS, and university researchers have shown that many herds raise more heifers than they truly need, and often not the right ones, when decisions are based only on pedigree and appearance. Using genomics to sort those heifers can free up dollars and space to focus on the replacements that will actually drive your herd forward.

4. How strong is your calf and transition program?

We can talk about semen and proofs all day, but colostrum and fresh cow management still set the ceiling:

Are you routinely checking colostrum quality with a Brix refractometer and ensuring the right volume is delivered to calves within the recommended timeframe?
Do your calf facilities provide the drainage, bedding, and ventilation that your vet and extension resources recommend, even when it’s cold, wet, or windy?
On the cow side, are your close‑up and fresh pens hitting targets for stocking density, bunk space, and stall design, or do those pens get crowded when you’re short on beds?

Research summarized in the Journal of Dairy Science and in calf‑raising guides from Penn State and UC Davis shows that calves with strong colostrum and early‑life care have lower morbidity, better growth, and better performance later in life—whether they end up as dairy cows or dairy‑beef cattle.

5. Where do your beef‑on‑dairy calves actually go?

Finally, follow the calf beyond your driveway:

Are you selling into a structured dairy‑beef program or to a regular buyer who lays out expectations and occasionally shares feedback on performance?
Or are most of your calves going through local sale barns as anonymous black calves with little information attached?

AABP’s dairy‑beef work and reports from feedlots in Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas suggest that as beef‑on‑dairy numbers grow, feedlots and packers are increasingly willing to pay premiums for calves with known backgrounds—from herds they trust—and are more cautious on price with unknown cattle. It’s worth noting that those premiums depend on meeting specific contract specs that can change quickly, so there’s some marketing risk to manage along with the opportunity.

If your only metric for beef‑on‑dairy success is this month’s calf cheque, you’re missing half the story.

Where This All Seems to Be Heading

When you stack up the NAAB semen trends, USDA herd numbers, CoBank’s heifer modeling, the beef‑on‑dairy research, and what vets and consultants are seeing across barns, a few patterns start to show through the noise.

In larger freestall and dry lot herds in the Upper Midwest, West, and Southwest, beef‑on‑dairy is quickly becoming part of the core business model. These herds are tying beef‑on‑dairy into their genetic strategy, fresh cow management, heifer planning, and marketing. They’re monitoring butterfat performance and components for the milk cheque, and calf contracts and feedlot relationships on the beef side.

In mid‑sized herds across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Ontario, there’s a lot of recalibrating going on. Many of these farms enjoyed the bump from beef‑on‑dairy calf prices in 2022–2023, but they’re now staring at tighter heifer numbers and higher replacement costs. They’re asking tougher questions about how far to push beef semen, where to invest next—reproduction, genomics, heifer housing, or structured calf marketing—and how to balance short‑term cash flow with long‑term herd stability.

In smaller tie‑stall and grazing systems—from Vermont to Quebec to the Prairies—beef‑on‑dairy is often being used more selectively: beef semen on clearly lower‑merit cows, while day‑to‑day focus stays on forage quality, butterfat performance, cow longevity, and labor efficiency. Some of these farms are teaming up with a few trusted calf buyers or dairy‑beef programs so they can capture better value for calves without taking on all the logistics themselves.

The Wageningen University Animals paper and other sector‑level analyses in Europe and New Zealand point the same direction as what we’re seeing here: beef‑on‑dairy can be a powerful tool to improve profitability and resource use when it’s built on strong reproduction, sexed semen, and careful replacement planning, but it can create pressure on replacements and welfare if it’s used mainly as a way to ride high calf prices for a season or two.

The Bottom Line

What I’ve noticed, walking freestalls in Wisconsin, parlors in New York, dry lots in the High Plains, and tie‑stalls in Ontario, is that beef‑on‑dairy doesn’t really change what it takes to run a strong dairy. It just makes the strengths—and the cracks—a lot more visible.

Strong reproduction and fresh cow management buy you the freedom to use beef semen without starving your heifer pipeline. Genomics and thoughtful sire selection help you decide which animals should build your next generation of cows and which should produce high‑value beef calves. Good colostrum and calf care protect the value built into every pregnancy. And clear relationships with buyers and feedlots help turn those calves from “generic black crosses” into predictable, valued cattle in somebody’s beef chain.

So maybe the most useful question to bring back to your own kitchen table is this:

Are we using beef‑on‑dairy in a way that builds on the real strengths of our herd—reproduction, genetics, fresh cow and calf management, marketing—or are we leaning a bit too hard on strong calf prices to cover for things we already know we should fix?

If the honest answer is “a bit of both,” that’s actually a good place to start. It means you’ve already identified where your next management dollar is most likely to pay you back—in heifers you don’t have to buy, in calves that earn a premium instead of a discount, and in a herd that’s ready for whatever milk and beef markets throw at it between now and that 2027 wave of new processing capacity.

Diagnostic Criteria	✅ Sustainable Beef-on-Dairy	🔴 Scheduled Crisis (Hidden Bill Coming)
21-Day PR	25–30%+ (rolling 12-month average)	<20% or volatile 15–22%
	Reliable base for 30–45% beef semen	Inadequate base; even 40% beef starves replacements
Heifer Pipeline Visibility	Age-structured count (0–6m, 6–12m, 12–18m, 18–24m); modeled forward vs. cull rate	No systematic count; heifer pens “look OK” but no forward projection
	Know if self-replacing through 2027–2028	Blind to shortage until it hits; then scrambling to buy
Genomic Decision-Making	Genotyping 90%+ of heifer calves; genomic ranking directly drives sexed vs. beef semen assignment; culling non-merit animals early	Minimal genotyping; sexed semen and beef assigned by “gut feel” or herd appearance; raising marginal heifers anyway
	Raising the RIGHT heifers	Raising MORE heifers, not necessarily better ones
Calf & Transition Program	Colostrum quality checked with Brix; consistent volumes/timing; calf facility meets vet/extension standards (drainage, bedding, ventilation)	Basic colostrum; calf housing crowded or inconsistent; transition pens cramped when volume spikes
	Strong colostrum sets all calves (dairy or beef) up for performance	Weak colostrum and housing drag down heifer health/growth
Beef Calf Marketing	Documented program: sire ID, dam info, colostrum, vaccination, weaning protocols; partner with known feedlot/dairy-beef program; receive performance/carcass feedback	Anonymous sale barn sales; minimal traceability; generic “black calf” pricing; no feedback loop
	Earn $280–400/head premium over commodity; build brand	Leave $3,000–4,000 per truckload on the table; buyers discount unknown cattle
Overall Herd Status	Multi-year plan in place; beef-on-dairy as one tool, not the solution	Riding high calf prices now; financing 2027 heifer crisis later
Action This Week	Fine-tune; confirm heifer counts; adjust sexed % if needed	STOP; audit repro; model heifer shortage; plan heifer purchasing or pivot beef % down

This week, before you get too far into spring breeding decisions:

Check your 12‑month 21‑day PR.
Lay out your heifers by age band and run them against your cull rate.
Decide which cows truly deserve sexed semen—and which calves truly deserve a beef premium.

That’s the math that will tell you whether beef‑on‑dairy is working for your herd, or whether you’re quietly writing yourself a very expensive heifer cheque for 2027.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The beef-on-dairy math has flipped. 7.9 million beef straws went into U.S. dairy herds in 2024, but USDA counts just 3.914 million replacement heifers—the lowest since 1978—and CoBank projects another 800,000-head shrink before inventories recover near 2027.
Reproduction is the gatekeeper, not semen color. Herds under 20% 21-day PR breeding heavily to beef aren’t cashing in—they’re scheduling a heifer shortage. Above 30% PR, many herds can safely run 40–50% beef and stay self-replacing.
The hidden bill adds up fast. A 300-cow herd at 25% PR pushing 50% beef could come up 10–20 heifers short annually. At US$3,000+ each, that’s US$30,000–60,000 per year quietly erasing those 2023 calf premiums.
Program calves earn premiums; anonymous calves get discounted. Feedlots and packers increasingly separate documented dairy-beef calves from generic “black calves” on price—and that gap is widening.
Your move this week: Check your 12-month 21-day PR, map heifers by age against your cull rate, and decide which cows truly deserve sexed semen. That math tells you whether beef-on-dairy is building your herd—or billing it.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Beef-on-Dairy’s $6,215 Secret: Why 72% of Herds Are Playing It Wrong – Stop the guesswork and find your profit tier. This guide breaks down the specific reproductive “guard rails” that separate top-tier earners from those losing ground, providing a Monday-morning blueprint for maximizing monthly revenue.
438,000 Missing Heifers. $4,100 Price Tags. Beef-on-Dairy’s Reckoning Has Arrived. – Position your dairy for a structural reset. This analysis exposes the 2026-2027 heifer inventory gap, arming you with the market intelligence to navigate $4,100 price tags and secure elusive processor partnerships before the window closes.
The Next Frontier: What’s Really Coming for Dairy Cattle Breeding (2025-2030) – Unlock the next decade of genetic advantage. This feature reveals how breakthroughs in casein selection and AI-driven health markers can generate an extra $5,000 per cow, transforming your breeding program into a high-value protein factory.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Beef on Dairy

Tags : 21-day pregnancy rate, beef-on-dairy, Breeding Strategy, dairy replacement prices, heifer inventory, Sexed Semen

The 2026 Breeding Playbook: Using Calf‑Health Genomics and Beef‑on‑Dairy to Unlock $50,000 in Your Herd

Friday, January 16th, 2026

Sick calves can drain $27,000/year from your herd. By 2026, genomics will let you stop breeding them. Here’s the playbook.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: USDA research now confirms what many producers have long suspected: calf scours and respiratory disease are partly genetic—and by 2026, you’ll be able to select against them. The numbers are hard to ignore. Sick calves can drain $27,000 a year from a 1,000-cow herd, while wrong breeding calls leave another $30,000-plus on the table in missed beef-on-dairy premiums and wasted heifer slots. With replacements at a 20-year low, beef-cross calves topping $1,000, and heifers costing north of $2,500 to raise, every semen straw now carries real economic weight. This article lays out a five-step breeding playbook—genomic testing, rule-based beef-versus-dairy decisions, calf-health sire screening, calving-pressure management, and ongoing market adjustments—that forward-thinking herds are already putting to work. Producers who start now can realistically expect to shift $50,000 or more in annual herd economics within 18-24 months.

You know how the talk goes once the parlor’s washed down and the coffee’s on. Somebody mentions a nasty run of scours or a bunch of calves that just won’t quit coughing in the group pen, and five minutes later, you’re into genomics, beef‑on‑dairy, heifer prices, and whether some cows should ever see a dairy straw again. That’s not small talk anymore. That’s survival planning.

What’s interesting right now is that the genetics and the economics are finally lining up with what a lot of you have been seeing in your own hutches. Some cow families just throw tougher calves. Others seem to live in the treatment book every winter. And those sick calves quietly eat money long before they get a chance to show what they can really do on butterfat performance, fertility, or longevity.

At the same time, beef‑on‑dairy has turned into serious money in a lot of sale barns and contract deals, right when replacement heifers have slid to the lowest levels we’ve seen in about 20 years and gotten expensive to either raise or buy. A 2025 CoBank report describes US dairy heifer inventories as sitting at roughly a 20‑year low and projects they could tighten by as much as 800,000 head before gradually rebounding after 2027 as roughly 10 billion dollars of new processing capacity comes online and needs milk. Analysts used USDA Cattle Inventory data to show that the number of dairy heifers over 500 pounds dropped from about 4.76 million in 2018 to roughly 4.06 million by early 2024—almost a 15% decline in the pool of future milkers.

Put all of that together, and the question changes from “How do we get fewer sick calves?” to something a lot sharper:

Which calves do you actually want to be making in 2026—and which ones are you better off never creating in the first place?

Let’s walk through what the newest science says about calf‑health genetics, how it connects to beef‑on‑dairy money and replacement economics, and what a practical breeding plan looks like on real dairies.

Looking at This Trend: What the New Calf‑Health Genetics Actually Show

If you’re going to let genetics influence how you think about scours and pneumonia, the first question is simple: are these traits heritable enough to move the needle?

A 2025 paper in the Journal of Dairy Science from USDA’s Animal Genomics and Improvement Laboratory went straight at that. The team led by geneticists Babu Neupane, PhD, and John B. Cole, PhD, pulled producer‑recorded calf health data from the National Cooperator Database and built what’s probably the most comprehensive calf‑health dataset we’ve ever seen for North American Holsteins and Jerseys.

Here’s what they worked with:

207,602 calf records for diarrhea between 3 and 60 days of age.
681,741 records for respiratory disease between 3 and 365 days.
Calves born from 2013 to 2024, with about 97.5% of the data coming from Holsteins and Jerseys.

When they summarized those records, they found that 14.46% of calves had a recorded case of diarrhea in that 3‑ to 60‑day window, and 16.05% had a recorded respiratory case between 3 and 365 days. If you’ve ever watched a damp March wind whistle through hutches in Wisconsin or Ontario, those numbers probably sound about right. Scours tends to bully the youngest calves; as they get older, respiratory problems slowly take over.

On the genetic side, they estimated heritabilities of 0.026 (2.6%) for resistance to diarrhea and 0.022 (2.2%) for resistance to respiratory disease. That’s modest, but it’s right in line with what’s been reported for cow‑health traits like clinical mastitis, metritis, and ketosis that we already include in Net Merit, Pro$, and other indexes. In plain language: calf‑health traits behave like other health traits we’re already comfortable breeding for.

Trait	Heritability	Similar Industry Trait	Top 5% Sires (% Healthy Calves)	Bottom 5% Sires (% Healthy Calves)	Practical Implication
Diarrhea Resistance	2.6%	Clinical Mastitis (1.5%–3%)	88%	71%	17 percentage-point spread; top sires prevent ~200+ sick-calf events per 1,000 calves born
Respiratory Resistance	2.2%	Ketosis (1–2%)	88%	70%	Same order of magnitude; respiratory RBV predicts > 1 fewer pneumonia case per 10–12 calves
Cow Mastitis	1.5%–3%	Industry standard	~85%	~72%	Calf-health heritability is comparable to traits we’ve been selecting on for 20+ years
Genetic Correlations	0.0 to -0.1	Low cross-trait pull	N/A	N/A	Improving calf health does not sacrifice milk, fat, protein, or fertility gains

What’s encouraging is that when USDA‑AGIL ran genomic evaluations for these traits, the genomic predictions were noticeably more reliable than simple parent averages, particularly for young bulls with no daughter data yet. They also found that genetic correlations between calf‑health traits and most other traits—production, fertility, cow health—were low, with only a modest link between diarrhea and respiratory resistance and very little pull against milk or component traits. That matters. It means you can add calf‑health traits into a balanced index without giving up the gains you’re making in milk, fat, protein, or cow fitness.

USDA‑ARS and the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) have been presenting this work through ICAR and industry meetings. The consistent message has been that these calf‑health traits are ready for inclusion in US national genetic evaluations for Holsteins and Jerseys as soon as data quality and validation milestones are met, with 2026 targeted as the window for implementation. The exact month depends on final testing and governance, but the direction is clear.

So, from a genetics point of view, we’re not talking about “maybe someday” anymore. These are real traits with real proofs coming.

What Sick Calves Really Cost: From $25 Per Case to $27,000 Per Year

You probably don’t need a scientist to tell you that sick calves are expensive, but it helps to put some hard numbers behind your gut feel.

A 2023 study in JDS Communications examined health costs at 16 certified organic Holstein dairies in the US. The researchers, including Laura C. Hardie, MSc, used on‑farm treatment records and standardized cost estimates for veterinarian time, medications, and producer labor.

On the calf side, they found average direct costs of:

25.21 dollars per case of scours.
56.37 dollars per case of respiratory disease.

Those figures are just what you can see on the invoice—vet visits, drugs, and some labor. They don’t include slower growth, extra days on milk replacer or starter, extra days to breeding, or the way a rough start can nibble away at first‑lactation milk and component performance. Reviews on calf health and heifer rearing, along with herd‑level calf‑health investigations, keep showing what many of you have already noticed: calves that get hammered early often lag behind, even when they survive and make it into the milk string.

So it’s reasonable—based on those cost estimates and the documented performance impacts—to say that a serious pre‑weaning disease episode can trim a few hundred dollars off a heifer’s lifetime economic value on many farms once you add up treatment, extra rearing time, and lost milk later on. The exact figure will move with your feed costs, labor rate, housing system, and milk price, but the order of magnitude is real.

If you want to see how that plays out across a herd, let’s do some simple math. Picture a 1,000‑cow dairy calving about 900 heifers a year. Say 15% of those calves—135 animals—have a significant scours or respiratory event. If you assign a conservative 200‑dollar economic hit per case, combining Hardie’s direct treatment costs with some allowance for long‑term performance losses, you end up at:

135 calves × 200 dollars ≈ 27,000 dollars per year in calf‑health‑related losses.

Cost Component	Amount (USD)	Percentage of Total
Direct Vet & Drug Costs	5,100	19%
Producer Labor (extra time)	4,050	15%
Slow Growth & Extended Rearing	8,100	30%
Lost First-Lactation Milk/Components	9,750	36%
Total	$27,000	100%

That’s not a published national average—it’s a realistic illustrative example built from current cost data and what we know about early‑life disease. On herds with higher disease burden, more expensive inputs, or longer rearing periods, that number can easily climb into the higher tens of thousands.

And that’s before you count the extra time and stress your team spends on repeated treatments and nursing fragile calves through bad weather.

So when we say calf health isn’t a “minor line item,” that it’s a major factor in your annual profit and loss, that’s the level of math we’re talking about.

Beef‑on‑Dairy and Tight Heifer Numbers: Why Every Calf Turned Strategic

Now layer the beef‑on‑dairy story and the heifer shortage on top of that.

On the beef side, you’ve watched this play out: the US beef cow herd has been slow to rebuild, and beef supplies have been tight enough that packers and feedlots are looking harder at dairy‑origin cattle, especially high‑health dairy‑beef cross calves. At the same time, dairy herds have become much more consistent with reproduction—timed AI, sexed semen, improved fresh cow management through the transition period—so you have more control over whether a given pregnancy is a “dairy heifer” or a “beef‑on‑dairy” calf.

Economists who work with both dairy and beef have been frank about the impact. In a 2025 interview, Mike North, an economist and risk‑management advisor with Ever.Ag, who works with many Midwest dairies, explained that beef‑on‑dairy breeding programs are generating “upwards of two and a half dollars per hundredweight in revenue back to the farm just in beef breeding” on some operations. In that same segment, he pointed out that in the current market environment, it’s not unusual to see a well‑bred, three‑day‑old dairy‑beef cross calf bring more than 1,000 dollars at certain sales, which really changes how that calf looks compared to a straight Holstein bull calf.

On the replacement side, CoBank’s 2025 heifer‑inventory analysis describes a sector at a “unique inflection point,” with dairy heifer numbers already at a 20‑year low and not expected to rebound until around 2027, as new processing plants draw more milk and heifer demand slowly pulls numbers up again. USDA Cattle Inventory reports shows that heifers over 500 pounds dropped from roughly 4.76 million in 2018 to 4.06 million in early 2024, while noting that stronger milk prices and processing expansion could drive replacement values higher. At the same time extension economists have pointed out that the total cost to raise a replacement heifer—from birth to first calving—often sits somewhere between 1,600 and 2,400 dollars under pre‑inflation conditions, with more recent budgets and Canadian/US benchmarking suggesting that on many units today, full economic rearing cost runs in the 2,300–3,000‑dollar range per head once you factor in feed, labor, housing, and overhead.

So across North America right now:

Dairy‑beef cross calves commonly bring a few hundred dollars more than straight Holstein bull calves at auction, with recent reports showing crossbred calves trading around 600–700 dollars in some Midwest sales while conventional bull calves lag behind.
In certain barns and weeks, especially in strong markets, three‑day‑old beef‑on‑dairy calves have topped 1,000 dollars.
Replacement heifers are scarce and expensive by historic standards, with multiple analyses pointing to rearing costs comfortably north of 2,000 dollars per head and market values for springers often pushing into the upper‑2,000 to 3,000‑dollar range in tight regions.

This development suggests that calves have shifted from “fill the hutches” to “shape the balance sheet.” Whether a pregnancy produces a dairy heifer or a dairy‑beef calf now has a direct and significant impact on both your future herd and your short‑term cash flow.

What Farmers Are Finding: A Five‑Step Breeding Framework That Actually Works

Looking at this trend across herds in Ontario, Wisconsin, California, and the Northeast, what I’ve noticed is that the operations making this work aren’t doing anything mystical. They’re just being very deliberate and consistent.

Most of them follow some version of a five‑step framework:

Use genomics to see which cow families are truly driving your herd.
Make a clear, rule‑based beef‑versus‑dairy decision for each breeding.
For dairy matings, add calf‑health genetics to your sire criteria as those proofs become available.
Factor in gestation length and calving pressure so you don’t overload high‑stress windows.
Re‑run the economics regularly as calf prices, heifer values, and milk markets move.

Let’s unpack that in barn‑level terms.

Step 1: Use Genomics to See Which Families to Grow—and Which to Let Go

Most herds that are serious about this are genomic‑testing their heifer calves, and some have also done a one‑time pass on younger cows to avoid missing high‑value animals that might be hiding behind older genetics.

A good real‑world example comes from a 5,000‑cow Holstein herd in the western US profile in 2024. The dairy, managed by veterinarian and producer Dr. Sergio Lopes, began genomic testing heifers in 2016 when they realized they were simply overrun with replacements and needed a better way to decide which heifers were truly worth raising.

Genomic results showed them a few things very quickly:

Some cows they had always considered “average” based on current production actually had very strong genetic merit.
Some of their highest‑producing cows were benefiting more from management and environment than genetics.
There were identification problems—wrong semen recorded, calves linked to the wrong dams—that genomics helped uncover and correct.

After a couple of years of working with the data, Lopes said they were confident enough to change their breeding strategy completely. They dropped conventional semen, used sexed dairy semen only on their best families, and bred the rest to beef. Today, they have a background of roughly 12,000 dairy‑beef cross animals tied to their 5,000‑cow dairy and partner herds, with beef calves and fed cattle now a major income stream alongside milk.

On a 300‑ to 600‑cow family herd—say a free‑stall in Wisconsin or a tie‑stall in Ontario—the same pattern shows up on a smaller scale. Producers genomic‑test their heifer calves, rank them on the index that matters most—Net Merit, TPI, Pro$, LPI, maybe with extra weight on health—and discover they have:

A top group, often the top 20–30%, they absolutely want to build daughters and granddaughters from.
A middle group they can flex up or down based on heifer inventory and cash flow.
A bottom group that’s tough to justify raising to calving when replacements are expensive, and barn space is tight.

Once you see your herd laid out like that, it becomes a lot easier to say, “These families deserve sexed semen and more daughters,” and “These cows can contribute better through beef‑cross calves than through more low‑merit heifers.”

Step 2: Make Beef‑Versus‑Dairy Decisions Simple and Rule‑Based

Once you’ve got a handle on your cow families, the next step is to stop making beef‑versus‑dairy calls on the fly in the parlor and start following a simple rule you can execute every week.

A rule that’s working on a lot of herds looks something like this:

First‑ and second‑lactation cows whose most recent heifer ranks in the top 40% of your genomic list get bred to dairy semen, often sexed.
Cows whose daughters fall below that line, plus older cows without strong family backing, get bred to beef.

When herds stick to that for a full year, they usually end up with roughly 30–40% of cows getting dairy semen and 60–70% getting beef. That mix often covers replacement needs—because dairy semen is concentrated on the right cows—while generating a steady stream of well‑bred dairy‑beef calves.

Here’s where the big math starts to bite in your favor. In many Midwestern markets right now, it’s common to see a beef‑on‑dairy calf sell for a few hundred dollars more than a straight Holstein bull calf. For example, in early 2024, it was reported that crossbred calves were selling for around 675 dollars per head in some US sales, while conventional Holstein bull calves lagged far behind, and noted that “beef on dairy” was becoming a “big money” factor in the heifer shortage conversation. If you take 150 matings that would have produced low‑merit dairy calves and, instead, flip them to beef‑on‑dairy matings with a 250‑dollar average premium, you’re looking at:

150 calves × 250 dollars ≈ 37,500 dollars in added gross calf revenue.

Even if you trim that for calf‑price volatility or the occasional calf that doesn’t quite hit the premium, you’re still talking about tens of thousands of dollars per year from one simple change in breeding policy.

And on the cost side, you’re not spending all the feed, bedding, labor, and barn space to raise heifers from those bottom families. Long‑term work out of places like Cornell, Penn State, and western Canadian benchmarking suggests that when you spread all the costs out, total rearing cost per dairy heifer—from birth to first calving—often sits in the 2,000–3,000‑dollar range once you include feed, bedding, labor, health, and overhead, with the exact figure depending on system (confinement, pasture, dry lot) and region. So not raising heifers that were never likely to pay you back is a big part of this story, too.

Step 3: Add Calf‑Health Genetics to Your Dairy Sire List

Now bring calf‑health genetics back into the picture.

We’ve already seen that calf diarrhea and respiratory disease are heritable and can be evaluated genomically. Canada gives us a clear preview of how those traits can look in practice.

In August 2025, Lactanet—the national genetics and data organization for Canadian dairy producers—launched a Holstein calf‑health genetic evaluation that combines recorded cases of respiratory disease from birth to 180 days and diarrhea from birth to 60 days. The new trait is expressed as a Relative Breeding Value (RBV) centered at 100 with a standard deviation of 5. Higher RBVs indicate sires whose daughters are more likely to stay free of recorded calf‑health events in that early‑life window.

Lactanet geneticist Colin Lynch, MSc, explained in that a five‑point increase in calf‑health RBV corresponds to about 5.4% more healthy calves with no recorded diarrhea or respiratory problems. Their analysis showed that, among proven sires, the top 5% for calf‑health traits had around 88% healthy daughters, while the bottom 5% averaged closer to 70–71% healthy daughters—depending on whether you’re looking at diarrhea or respiratory disease. In real‑world terms, that’s the difference between a family where “most calves just start and go” and one where you feel like you’re forever pulling buckets and syringes.

Sire Rank	% Calves NO Diarrhea	% Calves NO Respiratory Disease	Combined Healthy Rate (Est.)	Per 100 Calves: Sick Events	Economic Cost per Cohort (100 calves)
Top 5%	92%	90%	~88%	~12 sick calves	$2,400 in direct treatment + losses
Middle 50%	87%	84%	~80%	~20 sick calves	$4,000 in treatment + losses
Bottom 5%	82%	76%	~70%	~30 sick calves	$6,000+ in treatment + losses
Spread (Top vs. Bottom)	+10 pts	+14 pts	+18 pts	+18 more sick calves	+$3,600 annually per 100-calf cohort

Here’s how herds are starting to use that kind of information:

For heifers and first‑calf cows, they insist on bulls that meet their production and cow‑health criteria and also clear a minimum calf‑health RBV. Bulls with poor calf‑health scores simply don’t get used on young animals.
For older cows, calf‑health RBV becomes a tie‑breaker among bulls with similar milk, components, fertility, and cow‑health profiles.
In regions with tough winter respiratory seasons—Wisconsin, Minnesota, Quebec, Northern New York—some producers are deliberately matching higher calf‑health bulls to matings that will calve into late winter and early spring, when pneumonia risk is highest.

Of course, these evaluations live or die on the quality of the health records behind them. A 2023 Canadian Journal of Animal Science case study on calf respiratory illness and diarrhea recording in Ontario found that the share of milk‑recorded herds logging calf disease rose from 2.6% in 2009 to 11.1% in 2020, but also pointed out several places where data can be lost or misclassified between the farm and the national database. Neupane and Cole have likewise emphasized in USDA‑ARS communications that clear, consistent on‑farm recording of calf health is critical if we want reliable calf‑health proofs.

So one very practical step you can take this year—before US calf‑health numbers even hit your AI catalogs—is to tighten how you record scours and pneumonia. Sit down with your vet, agree on what counts as a case, and make sure those events get logged consistently in your herd software. That way, when calf‑health proofs land, you can trust them more and know your herd is contributing good data.

Step 4: Factor in Gestation Length and Calving Pressure

You don’t need a statistician to tell you that what you do with calving‑ease and gestation length can make or break certain months. Stack too many long‑gestation, big‑calf bulls on heifers or smaller cows that all calve in a tight two‑week window, and you’ll see it in stillbirths, tough pulls, exhausted staff, and shaky fresh cow performance through the transition period.

Most modern proofs include calving‑ease and stillbirth rates, and many now list gestation length as well. Genetic evaluation organizations like CDCB and Lactanet have been gradually building more of these functional traits into their indexes and tools. They may not be as glamorous as milk or fat numbers, but they matter a lot when you’re planning calving pressure.

What farmers are doing, once they’ve set beef‑versus‑dairy and calf‑health rules, is using calving‑ease and gestation length as the next filter:

In herds with heavy winter or early‑spring calving in the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest, producers keep a short list of easy‑calving, shorter‑gestation bulls for dairy matings that will calve into February and March, when calving barns and fresh pens are under the most stress.
In Western dry lot systems, where summer heat is the big enemy, producers avoid long‑gestation bulls on matings that would calve into the hottest weeks and lean instead on sires with moderate gestation and favorable calving‑ease profiles.

You don’t need a complicated spreadsheet to manage this. Just mark a handful of bulls as “tight‑window sires” based on calving‑ease, gestation length, and acceptable production and health traits, and use them where the calendar and weather suggest you can’t afford added calving problems.

Step 5: Keep Re‑Running the Math as Markets Move

The last step—and this is the one that never really ends—is to keep re‑checking whether your thresholds still make sense as markets and costs move around.

Calf prices rise and fall with the beef cycle. Replacement heifer values swing with inventory, feed costs, and interest rates. Milk prices and component premiums fluctuate with supply, demand, and processor product mix. The herds that keep these breeding strategies working don’t treat them as set‑and‑forget decisions.

In practical terms, that looks like:

Watching local calf prices at sale barns, through order buyers, and with any calf contracts, so you know the current spread between dairy bull calves and dairy‑beef calves.
Tracking replacement heifer prices through USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory reports, CoBank and other industry analysis, and local auctions, and comparing those numbers against your estimated cost per raised heifer.
Adjusting your beef‑versus‑dairy cutoff as those numbers shift. When dairy‑beef calves are bringing strong premiums and replacements are expensive, a lot of herds are comfortable breeding only the top 30% of cows and heifers (by genomic merit) to dairy semen; if the spread shrinks or they need more replacements, they might widen that to 40%.

One helpful thing about the new calf‑health traits is that USDA‑AGIL has designed them to slot into the same kind of multi‑trait indexes we already use. Because genetic correlations between calf‑health traits and production or fertility are low, you can improve calf health without sacrificing milk, components, or cow survival, as long as you keep using balanced indexes instead of chasing single traits.

What Year One Really Feels Like on the Farm

On a PowerPoint slide, all of this looks tidy. On your own farm, Year One feels a little different.

At the start, it’s mostly invoices and extra work:

You’re genomic‑testing heifer calves, and the lab bills arrive long before any calves from your new breeding plan hit the ground.
You’re tightening up calf‑health recording with your vet and staff, which means training, more detailed entries, and a few evenings spent cleaning up your database.
You’re adjusting semen orders—more sexed semen on the top families, more beef semen on the bottom end, fewer “just in case” dairy breedings on cows that were never likely to give you high‑value daughters.

In the calf barn, nothing magical happens overnight. Your heifer pens still look full. Calf checks look familiar. It’s easy to wonder if the effort and expense are worth it.

By mid‑year, a few things usually start to shift:

You may find yourself selling or culling more lower‑merit heifers earlier—especially if you’re long on replacements—which frees up feed, bedding, and barn space.
Pregnancies conceived under the new beef‑versus‑dairy rules are in gestation, but only a handful of calves have actually hit the ground.
On paper, your breeding lists and heifer rankings make more sense. In the parlor and calf barn, daily routines feel largely unchanged.

Late in Year One and into Year Two is where most producers say they start to feel real differences:

Beef‑on‑dairy calves begin arriving as a more uniform, intentional group. You see stronger buyer interest, better feedback from feedlots, and often better average prices.
Your heifer pens gradually tilt toward a more consistent, higher‑index group instead of a random mix of stars and passengers. When those heifers freshen, you notice differences in how they come through the transition period and what they do in first‑lactation milk and components.
If you’ve matched genetics with solid colostrum management, good housing and ventilation, and steady fresh cow management, you often see calf treatment rates and pre‑weaning mortality start to trend in the right direction, similar to what regional calf‑health and barn‑fogging projects have reported when calf environments improve.

Producers highlighted in university extension projects tend to say the same thing: these strategies pay, but the payoff shows up over 18–24 months, not two pay periods. So if you’re going to go down this road, it really helps to think in years instead of months.

Looking Ahead: Getting Ready for Calf‑Health Proofs in the US

Looking at where this is heading, timing matters if you want to be ready.

The USDA‑AGIL work in the Journal of Dairy Science has already shown that calf diarrhea and respiratory traits can be evaluated at a national genomic scale, with usable heritabilities and low correlations with other key traits. USDA‑ARS publications and ICAR genetic evaluation reports have laid out the models and confirm that these calf‑health traits are being prepared for inclusion in US national evaluations for Holsteins and Jerseys.

The Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding has indicated, through meetings and industry communications, that the goal is to add calf‑health traits to the US genetic evaluation system in 2026, once data quality, validation, and governance steps are complete. The exact date will depend on final testing, but the intent is clear enough that seedstock suppliers and AI companies are already watching those traits closely.

Meanwhile, Canada is already using calf‑health RBVs in everyday breeding decisions. Lactanet launched the trait in 2025 and is working it into the Lifetime Performance Index (LPI) and other tools, so Canadian producers now see calf‑health expectations right alongside production, fertility, and cow‑health numbers when picking sires.

If you think about how quickly somatic cell score, daughter fertility, and cow‑health traits became “just part of the proof” once they were introduced, it’s reasonable to expect something similar with calf health. Early on, there will probably be bulls that are quietly excellent on calf‑health traits without a big semen price premium for that advantage. Over time, as more herds use those bulls and see calf‑barn results, market demand and pricing will adjust.

The herds that stand to benefit most from the early years of calf‑health proofs are the ones that:

Already genomic‑test most or all of their heifer calves.
Already have a written rule for which cows get dairy semen and which get beef.
Already work from weekly breeding lists and can easily add one more column when calf‑health numbers show up.

A Practical Game Plan for 2025–2026

If you’re thinking, “This all adds up, but what do I actually do next?”, here’s a straightforward plan you can take back to the office or kitchen table.

1. Build your information base.

Genomic‑test your next one or two calf crops so you can see how big the gap really is between your best and worst heifers on your preferred index.
Sit down with your veterinarian and team and define what counts as a reportable scours case and a pneumonia case on your farm, then make sure those cases are consistently recorded in your herd software.

2. Put a simple beef‑versus‑dairy rule on paper.

For example: “Only cows whose most recent heifer ranks in the top 40% genomically get dairy semen; the rest get beef.”
Plan to revisit that 40% threshold once a year based on calf‑price spreads, replacement heifer values, and your own heifer needs.

3. Talk with your AI and genetics partners about calf‑health traits.

Ask when they expect US calf‑health proofs to show up in their catalogs and computerized mating programs.
Identify a short list of bulls that fit your production and cow‑health goals and are also likely to be above average on calf‑health traits once those numbers are official.

4. Build a weekly breeding list.

Include cows eligible to breed, days in milk, parity, last calving date, and the genomic rank or index of their most recent heifer.
Mark each cow as “dairy” or “beef” based on your rule, then assign bulls from a short list that meet your criteria for production, components, fertility, cow health, calf health (once proofs are live), calving ease, and gestation length.

5. Track a few key metrics over the next 24 months.

Calf diarrhea and respiratory treatment rates, ideally by season.
Pre‑weaning mortality.
Age at first calving for heifers bred under the new system.
First‑lactation milk and component yield, and major health events in that first lactation.
Number and average sale price of beef‑on‑dairy calves.
Total heifer inventory and your best estimate of cost per raised heifer.

If you’re tracking those numbers, you’ll be able to tell whether genomics, beef‑on‑dairy, and calf‑health traits are actually changing the economics on your own farm—not just in theory, but in your barn with your markets.

Different Regions, Different On‑Ramps—Same Core Question

It’s worth saying that not every region, or every herd size, is going to use these tools in exactly the same way.

In Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Upper Midwest, long winters and naturally ventilated barns make respiratory disease a constant battle. Research supported by the Northern New York Agricultural Development Program and Cornell PRO‑DAIRY has shown that improvements in ventilation, barn‑fogging protocols, and calf‑barn layout can significantly reduce respiratory problems, with scours most common early in the rearing period and pneumonia more common later. Producers there are now layering calf‑health genetics on top of these management changes.
In Ontario and Quebec, where Lactanet calf‑health RBVs are already available, and LPI updates have brought more health and functional traits into the mix, many herds are simply adding calf health to breeding programs that already lean heavily on genomics.
In Western dry lot systems, such as those in California and the Southwest, heat and dust are greater challenges than cold. Work comparing confinement, dry‑lot, and pasture‑based heifer systems has shown that dry‑lot and pasture can lower some costs but demand strong management of shade, airflow, and group size. Producers there are combining calf‑health genetics with shade structures, better airflow, and early‑detection technologies for respiratory disease, plus close relationships with beef buyers who value uniform, high‑health dairy‑beef calves.
On smaller family herds in the Northeast or Great Lakes region, the most realistic first step might be to genomic‑test one year’s worth of heifers, use those results to decide which families get sexed dairy semen and which get beef, and then let the AI company’s mating program start incorporating calf‑health traits as they come into US proofs.

Different barns. Different weather. Different processor relationships and quota setups. But underneath all that, the strategic question you’re trying to answer is the same.

The Bottom Line

When you strip the jargon away, here’s where all of this leads.

We now have solid data showing that calf diarrhea and respiratory disease are common, costly, and heritable enough to improve through genetics. The same infrastructure that gave us cow‑health traits in our indexes is being used to bring calf‑health traits into US proofs, with Canada already showing how calf‑health RBVs can fit alongside production, fertility, and cow‑health information on a bull card.

We also have economic work on calf health, heifer rearing, and calf markets, telling us that:

Direct treatment costs per sick calf stack up quickly.
Serious early‑life disease can pull heifers off their full potential in growth, age at first calving, and first‑lactation performance.
Dairy‑beef cross calves can be a bright spot in the check when milk prices soften.
Replacement heifers are expensive enough that raising the wrong ones is a luxury most farms can’t really afford right now.

The tools—genomics, beef‑on‑dairy, calf‑health proofs—are all coming together just as those pressures peak. And you don’t need a PhD to use them. A simple, consistent five‑step approach—test, sort, decide beef vs dairy, add calf health and calving‑ease filters, and keep re‑running the math—will get you most of the way there.

What I’ve noticed, looking at both the research and what’s happening in real barns, is that we’re moving from a world where calf health was “just management” to one where genetics, markets, and management are all pulling in the same direction.

So maybe the real question for 2026 isn’t “Should I genomic‑test?” or “Should I try beef‑on‑dairy?” Those are just tools.

The bigger question—the one that can easily swing tens of thousands of dollars a year on many dairies—is this:

Given your barns, your local markets, your cash‑flow reality, and the calf‑health genetics coming into proofs, which calves do you truly want more of—and which calves are you better off never making in the first place?

If your breeding plan can answer that clearly, and you’re willing to line up your genetics, your fresh cow management, and your calf program behind that answer, then the next few years offer a real chance to tilt the math of your dairy in your favor quietly.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Calf-health proofs hit US genetics in 2026. USDA data on 680,000+ calves confirms scours and respiratory resistance are heritable—and selectable.
Sick calves drain $27,000/year from a 1,000-cow herd. That’s treatment, slower growth, and daughters that never reach their genetic potential.
The breeding math has changed. Beef-cross calves are topping $1,000. Heifers cost $2,500+ to raise. Replacements just hit a 20-year low. Every straw matters.
Five steps shift the money your way. Genomic-test heifers. Set a hard beef-versus-dairy rule. Screen bulls for calf health. Manage calving pressure. Re-check the economics quarterly.
Act now, bank returns in 18-24 months. Herds implementing this playbook today can realistically add $50,000+ to their bottom line.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Beef-on-Dairy’s $500,000 Swing: What 72% of Farms Know That’s Costing You $1,000/Cow Every Year – Reveals how to stop the $1,000-per-cow hemorrhage by aligning genetics with real-world beef premiums, arming you with the specific tactical shifts needed to capture the massive cash-flow opportunity most herds are leaving on the table.
438,000 Missing Heifers. $4,100 Price Tags. Beef-on-Dairy’s Reckoning Has Arrived. – Exposes the structural heifer shortage reshaping the industry, delivering the market intelligence you need to navigate record-high replacement costs and position your herd’s inventory for a high-stakes 2027 market rebound.
The Missing Piece in Genomic Selection: Why the Best Herds Still Walk the Pens – Breaks down why data alone isn’t enough to drive ROI, revealing how elite operations bridge the gap between genomic predictions and on-farm performance to ensure your $5,000 heifer investments actually reach their third lactation.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Beef on Dairy

Tags : beef-on-dairy strategy, Breeding Strategy, calf-health genomics, Dairy Farm Profitability, dairy heifer shortage, Genomic Testing

Did Genomics Really Deliver What We Think It Did? $238,000 Says Yes – If You Steer It Right

Monday, January 12th, 2026

Did genomics really deliver what you think it did—or is that extra $238,000 in profit still stuck in your semen tank?

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Let’s sit with a big number for a minute: a couple thousand dollars more lifetime profit per cow. That’s the kind of difference Lactanet uses in its Pro$ examples when it compares daughters of today’s high‑Pro$ sires to daughters of a decade older, lower‑ranking bulls, because Pro$ is built to reflect expected lifetime profit per cow based on real Canadian revenue and cost data up to six years of age or disposal.

If you spread that kind of genetic advantage across a few hundred cows over several breeding seasons, you’re quickly into tens of thousands of dollars in extra lifetime profit per year, the result of breeding decisions—assuming your fresh cow management, herd reproduction, and culling strategy actually lets those genetics show up in the tank.

That’s not hype. That’s the math behind Pro$, and it aligns with what genomic selection has achieved globally, where genetic progress in milk, fat, protein, health, and longevity has accelerated by 50–100% compared with the pre‑genomic era.

What’s interesting, though, is that when you start peeling back the layers on how we got here, you see both huge wins and some red flashing lights—especially around diversity, fertility, and hidden genetic risks.

That’s what this conversation is really about.

When Banners Steered the Breeding Bus

If you look back 15–20 years, you can probably still picture the late‑2000s bull lists. In Canada, Holstein Canada sire‑usage data from that era show a relatively tight group of sires—Goldwyn, Buckeye, Dolman, and their close relatives—accounting for a significant share of registrations.

In 2008, just three bulls (Dolman, Goldwyn, Buckeye) accounted for about 12% of all registered Holstein females in Canada, and the top five sires together made up roughly 15.7% of registrations. That kind of concentration perfectly reflected the breeding philosophy of the time: moderate yield, “true type” conformation, and pedigrees that lit up both classifier sheets and show‑ring banners, but not always the enterprise balance sheet.

On many commercial freestall and tie‑stall farms, those cows were often the ones that:

Struggled harder through the transition period
Needed more care of their feet and legs
Didn’t routinely make it to that profitable fourth or fifth lactation

That isn’t just coffee‑shop talk. Work from the University of Guelph and Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada has consistently shown that lifetime profitability is closely tied to lifetime milk revenue, length of productive life, days dry, age at first calving, and reproductive-related interventions. Cows that leave early, spend more time open, racking up vet bills, and simply don’t deliver their potential lifetime profit—even if they look great and milk well in first lactation.

Producers like Don Bennink at North Florida Holsteins have been lightning rods on this topic for years. He’s been very blunt that high production, strong health traits, and feed efficiency are the bywords for breeding profitable cows—not show ribbons—and that genomics has “increased our progress at a rate we could never have dreamed of previously,” creating a huge profitability gap between herds that use genomic information and those that don’t.

So even before we talk about SNP chips and genomic proofs, there was already a clear split between what wins banners and what pays bills in freestalls, robots, parlors, and dry‑lot systems.

From Pedigree and Type to Profit and Function

The Canadian Holstein breeding landscape has gone through one of the most profound shifts in its history since about 2008. Over 16 years, selection has moved from pedigree‑driven, visually focused decisions to a much more complete “facts‑first” approach that prioritizes profitability, health, and functionality based on accurate animal and herd data.

You can see this change clearly in which sires actually sired the most daughters in Canada. In 2008, the most‑used 20 sires accounted for about 33.5% of all registered females, and the average “top‑sire” had over 4,300 daughters. By 2024, that share dropped to around 22.6%, and the average daughters per top sire fell to roughly 2,984. At the same time, the top five sires in 2024 (Pursuit, Alcove, Lambda, Fuel, Zoar) represented only about 9.1% of registrations—down from that 15.7% level in 2008.

Overview of Top Sires of Canadian Holstein Female Registrations

Category	2008	2012	2016	2020	2024
Total Female Registrations	257,040	272,264	273,785	297,192	263,149
Five Sires with Most Daughters	Dolman	Windbrook	Impression	Lautrust	Pursuit
	Goldwyn	Fever	Superpower	Impression	Alcove
	Buckeye	Steady	Jett Air	Alcove	Lambda
	Frosty	Lauthority	Dempsey	Bardo	Fuel
	Sept Storm	Jordan	Uno	Unix	Zoar
Percent of Registrations
– Top Five Sires	15.70%	14.80%	7.30%	7.50%	9.10%
– Top Ten Sires	23.70%	22.20%	13.50%	12.60%	14.90%
– Top Twenty Sires	33.50%	30.10%	22.20%	20.20%	22.60%
– Top Thirty Sires	39.90%	34.70%	28.10%	25.90%	28.70%
Top Twenty Sires – avg # Daus	4,309	4,093	3,035	3,001	2,984
Highest Ranking Genomic Sire	30th	27th	8th	6th	5th
No. Genomic Sires in Top Ten	0	0	1	4	5
Percent of Sires – A2A2	20%	25%	35%	50%	60%

That’s not a “bull of the month” world anymore. That’s breeders intentionally spreading genetic risk, targeting specific trait profiles, and using more bulls per herd for shorter periods, while still driving genetic gain.

The underlying philosophy has evolved from two narrow extremes—high‑conformation or high‑milk two‑lactation cows that were often culled early—to a more complete target: four‑plus‑lactation, healthy, fertile, self‑sufficient, high‑solids cows that can survive modern housing, automation, and economic pressure.

What Genomics Actually Changed

When genomic evaluations hit around 2008–2009, they blew the doors off the old progeny‑testing model. Researchers like Adriana García‑Ruiz and Paul VanRaden, working with US national Holstein data at USDA‑AGIL, showed that once genomics was adopted, sire‑of‑sons generation intervals were effectively cut in half, dropping from roughly 6–10 years down to around 2.5–3 years. Canadian data tracked the same pattern.

That shorter generation interval, combined with higher selection intensity and more accurate young‑animal evaluations, is exactly why genetic gains picked up speed. Analyses of Holstein breeding programs published in the Journal of Dairy Science and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences report:

50–100% higher rates of genetic gain for milk, fat, and protein in the genomic era
3–4x higher genetic progress in some health and productive‑life traits between 2008 and 2014

Metric	2008 (Progeny-Testing Era)	2024 (Genomic Era)
Average LPI (Top 20 Sires)	1,985	3,531
Average Pro$ (Top 20 Sires)	-$1,558	+$1,978
Milk Proof (kg)	-578	+860
Fat Proof (kg)	-33 (-0.10%)	+85 (+0.31%)
Protein Proof (kg)	-27 (-0.07%)	+50 (+0.15%)
Top 5 Sires’ Market Share	15.7%	9.1%
Daughters per Top Sire	4,300	2,984
Top 20 Sires’ Market Share	33.5%	22.6%
Inbreeding (Top Sires’ Daughters)	~9.5%	11.5%

Canada’s own data comparing bull April 2025 indexes on the 20 most‑used sires, 2008 vs 2024, makes this very real:

The average LPI of those bulls climbed from about 1,985 in 2008 to around 3,531 in 2024—roughly +97 LPI points per year.
Pro$ swung from about –$1,558 in 2008 to about +$1,978 in 2024—roughly +$221 per year in predicted daughter lifetime profit.
Average proofs for those sires went from roughly –578 kg milk, –33 kg fat (–0.10%F), and –27 kg protein (–0.07%P) in 2008 to about +860 kg milk, +85 kg fat (+0.31%F), and +50 kg protein (+0.15%P) by 2024.

That works out to about +90 kg of milk, +7.4 kg of fat, and +4.8 kg of protein in genetic improvement per year in the bulls that Canadian Holstein breeders actually used the most.

Year	LPI	Pro$
2008	1,985	-$1,558
2010	2,180	-$980
2012	2,420	-$340
2014	2,690	+$230
2016	2,875	+$650
2018	3,045	+$1,040
2020	3,210	+$1,380
2022	3,375	+$1,680
2024	3,531	+$1,978

Put simply: genomics, combined with LPI and Pro$, did exactly what it was supposed to do in Canada—faster genetic gain for production and overall profit.

Indexes for Twenty Sires with the Most Registered Daughters

Year	LPI	Pro$	Milk	Fat / %F	Protein / %P	CONF	Mammary	Feet & Legs	D Strength	Rump
2008	1985	-1558	-578	-33 / -.10%	-27 / -.07%	-6	-6	-4	1	0
2012	2378	-728	-415	-14 / .01%	-17 / -.02%	1	-1	0	4	3
2016	2680	173	130	6 / .00%	2 / -.05%	1	0	1	2	3
2020	3054	1016	555	45 / .21%	25 / .04%	5	3	3	4	4
2024	3531	1978	860	85 / .31%	50 / .15%	8	6	8	7	5
Change/Year	97	221	90	7.4	4.8	0.88	0.75	0.75	0.38	0.31

*Lactanet Indexes Published in April 2025

Where biology pushes back is on which traits move fastest. Higher‑heritability traits like milk, fat, and protein, as well as major type traits, make faster genetic progress than lower‑heritability traits like fertility, health, and productive life. Genomics improves accuracy across the board, but when semen catalogs and marketing materials still lead with production and type, it’s easy for those traits to keep outrunning fertility and health on the genetic trend lines.

That’s how we end up with a proof landscape that shows: extreme strength in production and conformation, modest but improving gains in fertility and health, and some nagging functional issues that still frustrate producers.

The Diversity Question: Are We Painting Ourselves Into a Corner?

One major concern that doesn’t appear directly on a proof sheet is genetic diversity.

Geneticists talk about effective population size—the number of prominent sires contributing progeny, especially genomic sires entering AI programs and daughters being used as bull dams. Dutch and Italian Holstein genomic studies have examined this closely. In one well‑cited Dutch‑Flemish analysis, effective population size in AI bulls born between 1986 and 2015 ranged from about 50 to 115 prominent sires at different periods, with lower values during times of intense selection. Italian and Nordic Holstein work using both pedigree and SNP data has reported similar patterns—effective population sizes are often below 100, with prominent sires trending downward in the genomic era.

International guidelines from the FAO and genetic diversity experts generally suggest that an effective population size of 100 or more prominent sires is acceptable. Values below about 50 for prominent sires raise concerns about inbreeding depression and lost adaptability.

At the same time, genomic and pedigree analyses across multiple countries have shown that inbreeding is rising faster each year in the genomic era—often increasing by 0.3–0.5 percentage points annually. At current generation intervals, that can mean 1.5–2.5% per generation. Pedigree studies summarized by Chad Dechow at Penn State and reported in Hoard’s Dairyman have also highlighted how a disproportionate share of modern Holstein ancestry traces back to just a handful of bulls (Chief, Elevation, Ivanhoe), underlining how concentrated the global gene pool has become.

In the Canadian context, that broader story plays out in very practical ways. The 20 most‑used sires in 2024 have daughters with an average inbreeding coefficient of about 11.5%—above a Holstein breed average already considered uncomfortably high at around 10.6%. That means the bulls delivering the most genetic progress on paper are also nudging herds further into undesirable inbreeding territory.

Practically, if you always grab the top two or three bulls on the list:

You’ll quickly improve your herd’s genetic level.
While you’ll also make your heifers more closely related to each other, especially if those bulls also share cow families.

On farm, that’s when inbreeding starts to show up in ways you feel: more fertility trouble, more health events, and cows that don’t seem as robust as the previous generation—even while milk solids and type keep improving.

Hidden Passengers: Haplotype and Recessive Stories

Another layer that genomics exposed is fertility haplotypes and single‑gene defects.

Over the past decade, collaborations between the USDA’s Animal Genomics and Improvement Lab, European institutes, and AI organizations have identified several Holstein haplotypes—HH1, HH2, HH3, HH4, HH5, HH6—and defects like cholesterol deficiency (CD/HCD) that are tied to embryonic loss or weak calves.

The pattern is pretty straightforward:

These haplotypes are stretches of DNA where homozygous calves (same version from sire and dam) often die early in gestation or are born weak and fail to thrive.
Carrier frequencies in many national populations sit in the low single digits but can reach 5–10% for some haplotypes in certain birth years and cow families.

The cholesterol deficiency story is a good cautionary tale. CD traces back to lines including Maughlin Storm and involves a mutation affecting fat metabolism; affected calves often die within weeks due to diarrhea and failure to thrive, while carriers look normal and can be high‑index animals.

The good news:

Major AI studs routinely test their bulls for these defects, and they, their breeds, and genetic evaluation centers publish the carrier status of animals.
Mating programs can automatically avoid carrier × carrier matings once herd and sire statuses are known.

If you don’t use those tools, the math can quietly bite you. Even a few percent of pregnancies lost to lethal combinations in a 400–500 cow herd can mean thousands of dollars in dead calves, extra breedings, and longer calving intervals each year—losses that are largely avoidable with the data breeders already have access to.

The 2025 Modernized LPI: A Better Dashboard

All of this—faster genetic gain, tighter diversity, more trait data, and new environmental pressure—is why genetic evaluation systems are updating how they calculate and present information.

In Canada, Lactanet launched a modernized Lifetime Performance Index (LPI) framework in April 2025. The old three‑group structure (Production, Durability, Health & Fertility) was replaced with six subindexes for Holsteins and five subindexes for the other breeds:

Production Index (PI)
Longevity & Type Index (LTI)
Health & Welfare Index (HWI)
Reproduction Index (RI)
Milkability Index (MI)
Environmental Impact Index (EII)

For Holsteins, these subindexes carry specific weightings in the new LPI formula: about 40% on Production, 32% on Longevity & Type, 8% on Health & Welfare, 10% on Reproduction, 5% on Milkability, and 5% on Environmental Impact. As well, Lactanet has an online routine where breeders can rank bulls by assigning their own weightings for the subindexes.

Two important comfort points from Lactanet:

The correlation between the current and modernized LPI is expected to be around 0.98, so the bulls you like don’t suddenly become “bad”—their strengths and weaknesses just become more visible.
Splitting Health & Fertility into Health & Welfare and Reproduction, plus the creation of a separate Milkability subindex, allows new traits such as calving ability, daughter calving ability, milking speed, temperament, and environmental traits (such as feed and methane‑related efficiencies) to be properly handled in the indexing.

For a lot of producers, the practical value is this: you can now see at a glance where a bull stands not only on overall LPI or Pro$, but on:

Reproduction
Health & Welfare
Environmental footprint

On separate scales, without having to decode 20 individual trait proofs.

What the Top 2024 Sires Miss—and What That Means for 2026 Matings

Here’s where the Canadian sire usage data really tells a story.

April ’25 Indexes for Twenty 2024 Sires with Most Registered Daughters

Category	Avg Index	Index%RK	Range in %RK	% Sires Below AVG
Lifetime Performance Index (LPI)	3531	98%RK	81 – 99 %RK	0%
Production Subindex (PI)	659	93%RK	70 – 99 %RK	0%
Longevity & Type Subindex (LTI)	678	98%RK	57 – 99 %RK	0%
Health & Welfare Subindex (HWI)	500	50%RK	02 – 93 %RK	60%
Reproduction Subindex (RI)	450	29%RK	01 – 65 %RK	75%
Milkability Subindex (MI)	516	52%RK	10 – 92 %RK	45%
Environmental Impact Subindex (EII)	475	40%RK	02 – 96 %RK	75%

When you line up the 20 sires with the most registered daughters in 2024 and score them on the new subindexes, you get a clear pattern:

They’re elite for LPI, Pro$, the Production, and the combined Longevity & Type subindexes.
They’re roughly breed average for Health & Welfare and Milkability subindexes.
They’re significantly below the breed average for Reproduction and Environmental Impact subindexes.
Their daughters are running about 11.5% inbreeding vs a breed average of 10.6%.

In plain language:

We’ve done an excellent job selecting bulls that lead the pack in production, type, and overall profit indexes.
We’ve been less aggressive on fertility, cow survival under stress, and environmental footprint.
The bulls that did the most “work” in Canadian herds in 2024 also nudged inbreeding higher.

That sets up the key question for 2026: What are you going to do when you breed those daughters?

If you continue stacking similar high‑production, below‑average‑fertility, high‑relationship sires on top of them, you’ll keep moving LPI and Pro$ up—but you may also:

Push inbreeding higher.
Put more strain on reproduction and transition‑cow programs.
Lag on traits processors and regulators are starting to reward, like feed efficiency and methane‑related performance.

The alternative is to stay aggressive on genetic gain where it matters most for your herd, while using the new LPI subindexes and genomic tools to protect functional traits and diversity.

It’s worth noting that many AI companies are now actively promoting outcross or lower‑relationship bulls and subindex “balanced” sires to help address future genetic needs. Those options are on the semen delivery truck—it just comes down to whether we actually use them.

What Progressive Herds Are Doing Differently

Across Canadian Lactanet‑profiled herds, US herds highlighted in Hoard’s and Dairy Herd, and European setups facing tight environmental rules, the most progressive operations tend to do four things with their breeding programs.

1. They Don’t Stop at the Top Line Index

Most of us have, at some point, just circled the top two or three bulls on our preferred total merit index list—LPI, Pro$, Net Merit, etc.—and then called it a breeding plan. It’s quick—and to be fair, it used to work “well enough.”

The herds that are pulling ahead now ask:

What are my top three herd problems right now—reproduction, mastitis, lameness, culling age, transition disease?
How do those problems line up with the Reproduction, Health & Welfare, Longevity & Type, and Milkability subindexes?

Then they pick bulls that are high enough on LPI/Pro$/Net Merit and are very strong where their herd is weakest.

Examples:

A Western Canadian quota herd shipping into a butterfat‑heavy market may load more weight on fat %, reproductive efficiency, and Environmental Impact (feed efficiency, methane efficiency), because contract and policy pressures are moving in that direction.
A robot barn in Ontario may rank bulls first on Milkability (speed, temperament, udder/teat traits compatible with robots), then on LPI/Pro$, because slow‑milkers drag down box throughput.

The point is: the overall index gets you in the right ballpark; the subindexes and trait profiles decide whether you actually fix the problems that cost you money.

2. They Set Clear Inbreeding and Relationship Limits

Modern mating programs—whether through AI company software or integrated herd tools—let you set an expected inbreeding ceiling per mating.

A common approach:

Target: keeping individual matings under about 8% expected inbreeding (roughly “cousin‑level” or less).
Cap: avoid using any one sire providing more than 5–10% of replacements in a given year, so you don’t wake up in five years and realize half the herd traces back to only two bulls.

Genomic relationship data give much sharper views of how closely related bulls actually are, so herds and advisors are using it to:

Avoid stacking very closely related sires on the same cow families.
Balance high‑index sires across different lines to keep the gene pool wider.

This isn’t about avoiding genomics—it’s about using genomics to capture speed without painting yourself into a corner.

3. They Treat Haplotypes and Recessives as Standard Inputs

In 2026, ignoring fertility haplotype and genetic defect data is a bit like ignoring somatic cell counts. You can do it, but it will cost you.

The practical rule of thumb:

Carrier sires are okay if they bring needed strengths.
Carrier × carrier matings are not made.

On the farm, that means:

Genomically test all replacement heifers.
Make sure genomic testing and AI reports clearly identify carrier cows and bulls for known Holstein defects (HH1–HH6, CD/HCD, and others tracked by your provider).
Turn on “block carrier × carrier” in mating programs.
Review your herd’s carrier percentages; if a high proportion of heifers carry a given defect, re‑balance the sire lineup to avoid stacking that issue deeper.

Preventing even a handful of lost pregnancies or weak calves per year more than pays for the time it takes to configure those filters.

4. They Mix “Rocket Fuel” and “Workhorse” Genetics on Purpose

A pattern that shows up in data‑driven herds is deliberate stratification of matings.

For example:

Use a select group of very high‑index “rocket fuel” sires (top LPI/Pro$/Net Merit) on the very best genomic heifers and cow families to keep the top of the herd pushing forward fast.
Use a broader group of balanced “workhorse” sires—above average for Reproduction and Health & Welfare, solid for Longevity & Type—on the rest of the herd, especially family lines that have given you trouble on fertility or health.

That way, you:

Capture the upside of genomics where it pays the most.
Build a herd that isn’t full of fragile “one‑and‑done” cows that leave before third lactation.

A Quick Ontario Illustration

Imagine a 400‑cow Holstein herd.

The numbers say:

Too many cows are leaving before their fourth lactation.
Reproduction is “okay” but not great.
The current sire used list is heavy on very high LPI/Pro$ bulls that are below breed average for Reproduction Index and only average for Health & Welfare, with some matings up around 12–14% expected inbreeding.

A revised 3–4 year strategy might look like this:

Keep one or two of those elite genomic or proven sires for your best genomic heifers and highest‑index cows.
Add three to four “workhorse” genomic or proven less inbred bulls that are at or above breed average for Reproduction Index and Health & Welfare Index, and still have solid LPI/Pro$ numbers, even if they’re 200–300 points lower than the “rocket fuel” bulls.
Set an inbreeding ceiling goal of around 8% in the mating program.
Turn on avoidance for key haplotypes and genetic defects.

Over the next few years, you’re likely to see:

Modest improvement in pregnancy rate and fewer days open.
More cows are making it into fourth and fifth lactation without a parade of health or welfare events.
Slightly slower LPI/Pro$ progress on paper, but higher actual milk shipped per cow over a lifetime, because more cows stick around long enough to exceed paying back their rearing cost and reach peak productivity.

Here’s the rough math on that last point. If shifting your sire mix means an average cow stays an extra 0.3–0.5 lactations, and each additional lactation is worth roughly $1,500–$2,000 in net margin after feed and overhead, you’re looking at $450–$1,000 extra net income per cow over her lifetime. In a 400‑cow herd turning over 30–35% of cows per year, that trade‑off can easily be worth $50,000–$100,000+ per year on the income side—money that more than offsets a slightly slower climb on paper index.

Metric	“Rocket Fuel Only” Strategy	Balanced “Rocket + Workhorse” Strategy	Difference
Avg LPI/Pro$ Annual Gain	+110 LPI / +240PRO$	+85 LPI / +190PRO$	-25 LPI / -50PRO$
Avg Productive Life (Lactations)	2.8	3.3	+0.5 lactations
% Cows Reaching 4th Lactation	32%	48%	+16 percentage points
Avg Inbreeding (%)	12.8%	9.2%	-3.6 percentage points
Pregnancy Rate (21-day)	18.5%	22.0%	+3.5 points
Extra Net Income per Cow (Lifetime)	Baseline	+$650–$900	+$650–$900
400-Cow Herd (Annual Impact)	Baseline	+$65,000–$90,000/year	+$65,000–$90,000/year
3–5 Year Cumulative ROI	Baseline	$195,000–$450,000	$195,000–$450,000

That trade‑off—slightly less “flash” for more “cows that work longer and require less individual care”—is where the real money often sits.

Three Questions to Ask Your AI Rep This Spring

If you’re not sure where to start, these questions cut through the catalog noise fast:

“Which bulls in your lineup are above breed average for both Reproduction and Health & Welfare subindexes, and still strong on LPI/Pro$?”
This forces the conversation beyond the very top LPI or Net Merit names.
“Can you run a report showing my herd’s average expected inbreeding and carrier status for major Holstein haplotypes and genetic defects?”
This gives you a baseline for both diversity and hidden risk.
“If I wanted to balance my sire lineup between a few elite ‘rocket fuel’ bulls and more ‘workhorse’ functional sires, what would that look like for my herd?”
This turns a product pitch into a strategy discussion tailored to your data.

A Straightforward Pre‑Order Checklist

Before your next semen order or breeding push, a simple checklist ties all of this together:

Pull the last 2 years of herd data.
- Look at culling reasons and ages; how many cows leave before fourth lactation?
- Check key KPIs: pregnancy rate, days open, mastitis/health events, SCC trends.
Review your current sire lineup by subindex.
- For each bull, jot down Production, Longevity & Type, Reproduction, Health & Welfare, Milkability, and Environmental Impact scores under the new LPI structure.
- Flag bulls that are strong for Production but clearly below breed average for Reproduction or Health & Welfare.
Decide on an inbreeding ceiling and diversity plan.
- Work with your advisor to set a mating target (e.g., an expected inbreeding level below 8%).
- Consider setting limits on how much any single bull can contribute to replacements over the next 1–2 years.
Make sure haplotype and recessive filters are turned on.
- Confirm your mating software blocks carrier × carrier matings for known Holstein haplotypes and genetic defects.
- Ask for a herd‑level carrier summary so you know your starting point.
Balance your sire list.
- Keep a select group of elite “rocket fuel” sires for the very top females.
- Add at least one or two “workhorse” sires that are clearly strong for Reproduction and Health & Welfare to shore up your everyday cows.

If you remember nothing else, remember those three pillars: protect functional traits, manage diversity, and balance elite and workhorse genetics. Together, they do more for long‑term profitability than chasing any single proof list.

So, Did Genomics Deliver? The $238,000 Answer

If we’re honest, the answer is “yes—and.”

Yes, genomics delivered faster progress and more precise selection. Studies from the US, Canada, and Europe are very clear: genetic gains in production, health, fertility, and longevity traits are higher now than in the old progeny‑testing era.

And at the same time, genomics amplified both the strengths and the weak spots in our breeding goals:

We pushed production and type forward fast.
We made positive strides in some health and fertility traits, but they still lag behind production in terms of genetic gain rate.
We leaned hard on a relatively small set of sire and cow families, tightening the gene pool and increasing inbreeding.
We uncovered haplotypes and genetic defects hitchhiking on high‑index lineages, reminding us that progress always comes with complexity.

The good news is that the tools to manage those trade‑offs—modernized LPI, Pro$, genomic testing, mating software, and herd analytics—are better than ever.

The Bottom Line

Here’s the critical point: without genomics, there is no measurable ROI on genetic improvement. In the pre‑genomic era, you couldn’t reliably capture this kind of return because you couldn’t accurately identify high‑profit genetics early enough or fast enough. Today you can—and the math works out. A 400‑cow herd making smarter breeding decisions with genomic tools can realistically capture $50,000–$100,000+ per year in additional lifetime profit from cows that stay longer, breed back faster, and require less intervention. Over a typical planning horizon of three to five years, that’s the $238,000 question answered: genomics delivered the tools; your breeding decisions determine whether you actually capture that ROI.

Most of us aren’t in this to win a banner once and sell the herd. The goal is herds we actually like milking: cows that calve in with ease, handle transition without a parade of treatments, breed back on a reasonable schedule, stay sound on their feet, and survive long enough to make heifer raising pencil out positively.

The bulls you choose this year will still have daughters freshening in your barn in 2032. The closer those daughters are to the cows you actually want in your parlor—on reproduction records, on health reports, and on your balance sheet—the more of genomics’ promise you’ll actually capture.

Genomics gave us the speed. Now the job is making sure we’re steering it in the right direction for our own future dairy enterprise.

Key Takeaways

Genomics delivered: Genetic gains for milk, fat, protein, health, and longevity have roughly doubled since 2008—faster than progeny testing ever achieved.
But there’s a catch: Intense selection on a small elite group has pushed inbreeding past 11% and narrowed the gene pool, quietly eroding fertility and robustness.
New tools help you see the trade-offs: Lactanet’s six LPI subindexes show exactly where a bull stands on Reproduction, Health & Welfare, Milkability, and Environmental Impact—not just total merit.
Progressive herds are steering, not chasing: They mix “rocket fuel” and “workhorse” sires, cap inbreeding under 8%, and block carrier × carrier matings for haplotypes and defects.
The payoff is real: A 400-cow herd using these strategies can capture $50,000–$100,000+ per year in extra lifetime profit—that’s the $238,000 answer over 3–5 years.

Executive Summary:

Genomic selection has roughly doubled the rate of genetic gain for milk, fat, and protein, while also improving health and longevity traits compared with the old progeny‑testing era. Canadian data on the 20 most‑used Holstein sires show LPI and Pro$ values rising so fast since 2008 that daughters now generate several thousand dollars more lifetime profit per cow, adding up to $50,000–$100,000 or more per year in a well‑run 400‑cow herd. The flip side is that heavy reliance on a small group of elite families has increased inbreeding and reduced effective population size, which can chip away at fertility, health, and robustness if it’s ignored. Lactanet’s modernized LPI, with subindexes for Reproduction, Health & Welfare, Milkability, and Environmental Impact, gives breeders the dashboard they need to see those trade‑offs instead of just chasing one total merit number. Leading herds are using genomics to cap inbreeding, avoid carrier‑to‑carrier matings for haplotypes and defects, and deliberately mix a few high‑index “rocket fuel” sires with more balanced “workhorse” bulls that protect functional traits. In that context, the “$238,000 question” has a clear answer: genomics really can deliver that level of return over a few years, but only for farms that actively steer their breeding programs rather than letting the proof list do the driving.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

The Missing Piece in Genomic Selection: Why the Best Herds Still Walk the Pens – Stop the profit drain of early exits by identifying why cows leave before paying back their $2,600 rearing costs. This breakdown arms you with a tactical checklist to filter genomics through “cow sense” and secure more third-plus lactations.
2025 Dairy Year in Review: Ten Forces That Redefined Who’s Positioned to Thrive Through 2028 – Exposes the ten structural forces—from beef-on-dairy premiums to a shrinking replacement pipeline—shaping the next three years. It delivers the strategy to treat breeding as capital allocation, positioning your operation to thrive through the most volatile heifer market in 20 years.
The Methane Efficiency Breakthrough: How Smart Breeding Cuts Emissions 30% While Boosting Your Bottom Line – Reveals how to turn the “Environmental Impact” index into a 30% efficiency win by redirecting wasted energy back into your milk check. This deep dive into methane genetics delivers a permanent competitive advantage that temporary feed additives simply cannot match.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Genomics

Tags : Breeding Strategy, dairy genetics, dairy profitability, functional traits, genetic progress, Genomic Testing

The Traits That Should Disqualify Bulls- But Often Don’t: How Genomic Selection Changed the Rules of Knockout Traits

Monday, January 5th, 2026

What dairy breeders are discovering about the gap between traits that theoretically eliminate bulls and the ones that actually prevent collection and sale

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The traits that should disqualify bulls increasingly don’t—and that gap is costing commercial producers real money. While genomic screening has driven lethal haplotype carriers below 2% according to Lactanet data, problematic traits like elevated SCS and marginal udders now get marketed with management caveats rather than screened out. Operations ranging from small tie-stalls to 20,000-cow multi-state enterprises share a striking philosophical alignment: cow families and validation matter more than catalog numbers alone. GenoSource tracks cow families across generations—their matriarch, Miss OCD Robust Delicious, Holstein International Cow of the Year in 2018, still contributes embryos today. McCarty Family Farms discovered that roughly a quarter of their parentage records were incorrect before implementing systematic tracking that now achieves compliance in the mid-to-high 90s. Canadian operations like Walnutlawn, Lovholm, and Bosdale have bred World Dairy Expo champions while focusing on cow families rather than chasing the latest rankings. Their shared conviction: genomics tells you what genes an animal carries, but pedigree analysis reveals whether families actually transmit predictably. Commercial producers can close this gap through greater sire diversification, realistic expectations about young genomic predictions, and systematic tracking of what actually works in their own herds.

Here’s a number that caught my attention when I first saw it: according to a 2023 paper in Animals describing the BullVal$ decision-support model developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, when researchers applied their economic framework to actual AI company inventory, they recommended culling 49% of bulls because their projected net present value was negative.

Nearly half. That’s not a typo.

Whether those bulls were actually removed from service? The paper doesn’t say. And honestly, that gap between “should cull” and “actually culled” tells you a lot about how knockout traits really work today.

For decades, the industry operated on a pretty straightforward premise: certain genetic weaknesses could render an otherwise elite bull unmarketable. Terrible udders on a high-production bull? Knockout. Daughters that couldn’t get pregnant despite great indexes? Knockout. These single-trait failures were supposed to disqualify bulls regardless of their other merits.

But the reality has gotten more nuanced. The traits that actually prevent bull collection have narrowed considerably, while the traits that probably deserve more scrutiny often get marketed around rather than screened out. With component prices holding strong and butterfat premiums rewarding production efficiency, the economic stakes of genetic decisions have rarely been higher. Understanding this dynamic matters whether you’re running 200 cows in Vermont or 5,000 in the Central Valley.

What Actually Constitutes a Knockout Trait Today

Let’s start with what genuinely prevents a bull from being collected and marketed. Based on industry data and published research, true knockouts fall into surprisingly narrow categories.

Physical impossibilities remain absolute barriers. Bulls that can’t produce viable semen, have poor libido, or produce semen that doesn’t survive freezing simply can’t generate revenue. Studies on breeding bull disposal consistently show that subfertility issues—especially poor semen quality, inadequate libido, and poor semen freezability—are among the leading reasons bulls get culled from AI programs. These physical limitations account for the vast majority of young bull removals, not genetic trait concerns.

Genomically verifiable defects create binary decisions. Haplotypes like HH1 through HH6, which cause embryonic loss or calf mortality, are now routinely screened via genomic testing. Genetic evaluation centers like CDCB publish carrier status for these defects on most bulls marketed in North America—it’s become standard practice.

The screening has been effective. Lactanet reports that for Canadian Holsteins born between 2020 and 2023, carrier frequencies for HH1 through HH4 are now below the 2% level. HH5 carriers have dropped to close to 5%, and HH6—discovered only in 2019—has reached nearly 2% for 2023 births. The newer concern is Early Onset Muscle Weakness Syndrome (MW), which Lactanet added to its routinely published evaluations in 2024. Because it’s a more recent addition to screening panels, carrier frequency remains higher and warrants continued attention. But for the established haplotypes, genomic testing has largely solved the problem before bulls ever reach collection—exactly what the technology was supposed to do.

Trait Category	Industry Performance	Current Status	Feedback Loop Speed	Farmer Action Needed
Lethal Haplotypes (HH1-HH4)	✓ Solved	Below 2% carriers	Immediate (genomic test)	Trust genomic screening
HH5 Haplotype	⚠ Improving	~5% carriers	Immediate (genomic test)	Verify carrier status
Somatic Cell Score (SCS)	⚠ Unresolved	Bulls >3.00 SCS still marketed	1-2 lactations	Apply personal cutoffs
Inbreeding Accumulation	✗ Worsening	Doubling annually vs. pre-genomic era	3-5+ generations	Diversify bloodlines now
Young Bull Prediction Accuracy	✗ Overstated	Common 100+ NM$ downward drift	5-6 years (daughter proof)	Mentally discount 10-15%
Stature Extremes	✓ Self-corrected	Market shifted to moderate	1-2 lactations	Select <+2.0 stature

You either carry the mutation, or you don’t. There’s simply no gray zone to work around.

Market-specific requirements have emerged as conditional knockouts—and they vary more by geography than most North American producers realize.

For Jersey programs in some regions, sexed semen production capability has become nearly essential. In VikingJersey herds, sexed semen usage reached 72% of all dairy inseminations by March 2021, according to VikingGenetics. In Norway, 99% of VikingJersey semen sales are sexed. In the United States, the trend is growing but less dramatic—Journal of Dairy Science data shows Jersey sexed semen usage increased from 24.5% to 32.1% between 2019 and 2021. Still, a Jersey bull that can only produce conventional semen faces a shrinking market regardless of his genetic merit.

Market/Region	Breed	Sexed Semen Usage (%)	Implication for Bulls
Norway	Jersey	99%	Cannot produce sexed = unmarketable
VikingJersey Herds (Mar 2021)	Jersey	72%	Sexed capability near-essential
United States (2019)	Jersey	24.5%	Conventional bulls still viable
United States (2021)	Jersey	32.1%	Growing pressure for sexed capability

A2A2 status has become essential for producers targeting A2 milk premiums—a consideration that barely existed ten years ago.

In Dutch and Flemish markets, the NVI total merit index places substantially more weight on functional traits—longevity, health, udder health, fertility, and claw health—than on production, according to CRV documentation. That’s a fundamentally different emphasis than TPI’s production-heavy weighting. Buyers in these markets apply stricter thresholds for feet and legs, udder health, and milking speed than typical US selection criteria.

What does that fragmentation mean practically? A bull that ranks elite on TPI may look mediocre on NVI or RZG because those indexes weigh traits so differently. Getting a sire that fits all systems requires more, not less, due diligence, as genomic selection has expanded internationally.

The Gray Zone: Traits That Deserve Attention But Don’t Stop Collection

Experienced breeders often report similar patterns when it comes to somatic cell score. Bulls with SCS predictions around 3.00 or higher tend to leave daughters with noticeable cell count issues. The correlation isn’t perfect, but it’s consistent enough that many elite operations treat elevated SCS as a serious concern regardless of other merits.

You’ve probably noticed this in your own cows. Genetic evaluations consistently show that higher SCS breeding values are associated with a higher genetic predisposition to mastitis, which is why many breeders treat elevated SCS as a red-flag trait when choosing sires.

But here’s the market reality—elite genetics operations represent a small fraction of total semen purchases. When a breeder decides not to use a bull because of concerning SCS, the AI company’s sales numbers barely register the difference. They’ve already moved thousands of units to commercial operations that evaluated the NM$ ranking and placed orders.

Regional Threshold Differences

What constitutes a knockout varies substantially by market—and understanding those differences matters if you’re selling genetics internationally or evaluating bulls developed for other markets.

European buyers, particularly in the Netherlands and Belgium, tend to apply harder cutoffs on functional traits than North American selectors. The Dutch-Flemish NVI devotes substantial weighting to health, fertility, longevity, and conformation, with claw health and saved feed costs explicitly included since 2018. A bull borderline on udder health or feet and legs might move thousands of units in Wisconsin but struggle to gain traction in the Dutch-Flemish market. Conversely, some international markets still use raw milk volume as a primary screening threshold—which might seem outdated to producers focused on fat-plus-protein economics, but reflects local pricing structures.

The practical implication: when evaluating an imported bull or one heavily marketed for “global” appeal, check how he actually ranks in his home market’s index system. Elite TPI doesn’t guarantee elite LPI, RZG, or NVI performance—and the gaps can be substantial.

Industry geneticists at major AI companies acknowledge that severely negative mammary scores effectively disqualify bulls in most international markets. That sounds like a knockout trait. But what actually happens when an elite genomic bull tests at + with a slightly negative udder composite?

In practice, the marketing materials emphasize his exceptional production genetics and outstanding feet and legs. The udder concern gets mentioned—but perhaps framed as “best suited for herds with excellent management protocols.” Let me be direct about what that language means: when a catalog says a bull is “best suited for excellent management,” it’s a signal that his daughters will need him. The bull gets collected. The semen gets sold. And to be fair, in many well-managed operations, those daughters may perform just fine.

This isn’t meant as criticism of AI companies—they’re responding to market signals and customer demand. But it does mean commercial producers benefit from understanding that “knockout trait” and “marketed with management caveats” represent different categories.

The Stature Correction: How Trait Priorities Actually Shift

Perhaps no trait better illustrates how genetic priorities evolve—and why some corrections happen faster than others—than stature.

For decades, the dairy industry selected for taller cows. Show rings rewarded height. Classification systems scored it positively. The prevailing assumption was that a bigger frame meant bigger capacity for high production.

That’s changed. Tall bulls that would have commanded premiums a decade ago now face resistance in many markets—a change driven largely by commercial producer feedback rather than show ring preferences.

What changed wasn’t the underlying biology. What changed was that commercial producers—particularly those with freestall facilities—accumulated enough direct experience to question the institutional preference for height. Many breeders with freestall operations learned the same lesson independently: their tallest cows didn’t hold up as well in the stalls, often ending up moved to alternative housing or culled earlier than expected.

Research eventually caught up to what farmers were observing. A Canadian Dairy Network analysis found that stature had essentially no meaningful correlation with herd life compared with other functional traits—despite decades of positive selection for tall cows. European research has similarly shown that very heavy cows are often less efficient than moderate-weight animals, producing less milk per unit of feed intake at the extremes of body size.

Why did the stature correction actually work? A few key characteristics made the difference:

The problem was visible within individual herds. Farmers could see their tall cows go lame, struggle with stall fit, and get culled earlier. Attribution was relatively clear—tall cows had specific, observable problems that were harder to blame on nutrition or management alone. The solution was straightforward: select for moderate stature. And crucially, there was no competitive penalty—shorter bulls still carried high genetic merit for production.

This last point matters enormously. When you can address a problem without sacrificing production, the market tends to self-correct. When fixing a problem means accepting lower genetic merit… those corrections stall. Sometimes for decades.

The Problems That May Not Self-Correct

Here’s where the conversation gets more complicated—and more important for long-term planning.

Inbreeding rates are increasing. A 2022 study in Frontiers in Veterinary Science analyzing Italian Holstein populations found that genomic inbreeding has been increasing measurably since the adoption of genomic selection, with annual genomic inbreeding growth roughly doubling compared to the pre-genomic era. Studies in Dutch-Flemish, French, and North American populations show broadly similar patterns.

Why doesn’t this trigger a market correction like stature did? Probably because inbreeding depression manifests through diffuse symptoms—slightly lower fertility here, slightly higher disease incidence there, somewhat shorter productive life. No individual producer can easily identify inbreeding as the specific cause of their herd’s challenges. The effect appears real, but it’s invisible primarily at the individual farm level.

Genomic predictions for young bulls tend to be optimistic. Canadian and US evaluation centers have documented that daughter proofs for genomically preselected sires often drift downward relative to their original genomic predictions. The mechanism makes sense: when you genomically test millions of animals and select the absolute best fraction of a percent as bull mothers, you’re selecting from an already pre-selected population. The genomic model assumes something closer to random sampling. Reality works differently.

We’ve seen this pattern play out as daughter data accumulates. Several heavily-used young sires from 2021-2022 have come in meaningfully below their original predictions—in some cases by 100 points or more on NM$. The pattern isn’t universal—some bulls hold or even improve—but the downward drift is common enough that mentally discounting those catalog numbers reflects reality better than taking them at face value.

What does this mean practically? Consider this scenario: if you’re selecting bulls at +900NM$ expecting +$900 performance, but reality delivers something closer to +$720, that’s a meaningful gap in genetic merit you’re not capturing. Across 100 replacement heifers per year, that kind of shortfall adds up to real money—potentially tens of thousands of dollars annually in genetic value you expected but didn’t receive. That’s not a published industry average; it’s a realistic scenario producers should be prepared for when relying heavily on young genomic bulls.

Heat tolerance is becoming increasingly relevant. Genetic and management research has highlighted a tension between high production and heat tolerance. Higher-producing cows generate more metabolic heat, making them more vulnerable to heat stress in hot, humid conditions—a relationship that Lactanet and other organizations have flagged in their heat-tolerance extension materials.

This tension between genetic selection and climate adaptation may not self-correct through normal market mechanisms. The feedback is slow, attribution is difficult, and any producer who prioritizes heat tolerance typically accepts some trade-offs in production metrics. For operations in the Southeast or Southwest, this is already pressing. Upper Midwest operations have more runway, but increasingly intense summer heat events are changing that calculus.

The Feedback Loop Challenge

What really distinguishes problems that get market correction from problems that persist?

Stature got corrected because problems became visible in 1-2 lactations, cause-and-effect was reasonably clear, solutions didn’t require sacrificing production, and individual farmer decisions aggregated into a market signal.

Challenges like inbreeding accumulation, genomic prediction bias, and heat tolerance adaptation may persist because problems emerge gradually across 3-5+ lactations, attribution is genuinely difficult at the individual herd level, solutions often involve trade-offs against genetic merit, and there’s no clear mechanism for individual observations to aggregate into market pressure.

Here’s a concrete timeline that illustrates the problem: A bull marketed heavily in early 2021 produces daughters that start calving in late 2022. You get meaningful first-lactation performance data by mid-2024. By the time you have enough information to evaluate whether he delivered on his genomic promise—late 2025—you’ve already bred to his sons and grandsons for two or three generations. If there’s a problem, it’s already propagated through your herd before you knew it existed.

Genomic selection compressed generation intervals to 2.3 years—bulls have grandsons breeding before their daughters even finish first lactation. Meaningful validation requires 5-6 years, creating a catastrophic timing mismatch

Genomic selection now proceeds in 2-3 year cycles—generation intervals have dropped from around 5 years pre-genomic to as low as 2.3 years for some selection pathways. But daughter performance feedback still takes 5-6 years to accumulate. The math doesn’t work in the producer’s favor.

To be fair, genomics has delivered substantial progress on many traits—something AI company geneticists rightly point to when defending the system. US data from CDCB and Holstein USA show that rates of severe calving difficulty have dropped substantially over the past few decades as breeders have consistently selected for calving ease. But calving ease had characteristics that enabled rapid correction: immediate feedback, clear attribution, and universal agreement that it was worth addressing.

The traits that concern forward-thinking breeders today often lack those same characteristics.

What Elite Operations Do Differently

Two operations—one placing around 200 bulls into AI annually from a large Iowa herd, the other managing the largest registered Holstein herd in the United States across multiple states—share a striking philosophical alignment with smaller, elite breeders: cow families and validation matter more than catalog numbers alone.

The Genomic Validators

“We’re not afraid to mate apparent opposites. Progress requires calculated risks,” says Kyle Demmer, COO of GenoSource, a family-owned Iowa operation that’s become a global genetics powerhouse since eight families combined their herds in 2014. But those calculated risks aren’t blind bets on genomic numbers—they’re grounded in cow-family evaluation spanning generations.

When GenoSource CEO Tim Rauen discusses his favorite cow, the answer isn’t their highest-testing heifer. It’s T-Spruce Jaela 47718 VG-87. As Rauen explained in The Bullvine’s profile of the operation: “Out of her, already more than 50 sons, grandsons, and great-grandsons have left for AI, so she will truly have a lot of influence.” That’s not a genomic prediction—that’s multi-generational transmitting consistency you can actually verify.

Their legendary Miss OCD Robust Delicious proves the point even more dramatically. Named Holstein International Cow of the Year in 2018, this bovine matriarch still contributes valuable embryos to their program today. Her genetic fingerprint is evident across their top GTPI sires. Rauen notes that Delicious combines high genetic merit with strong mammary traits and efficiency, which is why her influence shows up in so many of GenoSource’s highest-ranking bulls. In an industry where youth often reigns supreme, Delicious demonstrates that longevity and productivity can validate genomic promise—but only if you’re tracking results long enough to see it.

GenoSource’s approach to show cattle reinforces this philosophy. Their three-time World Dairy Expo champion Ladyrose Caught Your Eye-ET isn’t just a show animal—sixteen of her daughters score VG-87 or higher and are productive members of working herds, according to The Bullvine’s coverage. That’s the kind of validation genomics alone can’t provide.

The operation tests a large number of bull candidates annually, placing around 200 in AI programs with companies such as Select Sires, Semex, ABS, and others. But what separates GenoSource from operations that simply chase genomic numbers is their insistence on tracking cow families across generations—verifying whether genomic promise translates into barn performance.

The Data-Driven Approach at Scale

At McCarty Family Farms—2025 World Dairy Expo Dairy Producers of the Year, operating the largest herd of registered Holsteins in the United States across Kansas, Nebraska, and Ohio—the approach scales differently, but the principle holds.

“Unlike managing by feel, we allow the data to drive many of our decisions,” Ken McCarty has explained. But critically, that data isn’t just genomic predictions—it’s actual performance systematically tracked across their operation.

When the McCartys first implemented comprehensive genomic testing, they discovered something sobering: roughly a quarter of recorded parentage in their herd was incorrect. As Ken reflected in interviews, how can you drive appropriate genetic progress or make the breeding decisions that will propel your business forward with that kind of foundational error? Today, after overhauling data capture and mating systems, their monthly compliance reports for mating recommendations consistently reach the mid-to-high 90% range.

McCarty’s standardization approach offers a template for commercial operations. Each farm operates the same synchronization protocols, treatment protocols, breeding strategies, and vaccination strategies. This consistency across their multi-site operation creates the statistical power to identify which sire families actually deliver—and which disappoint.

Since the early 2010s, they’ve increased both milk yield and overall output per cow substantially as the operation expanded, reflecting the combined impact of genetics, nutrition, and management changes. Their focus on genetic enhancement of milk protein content, which is notably harder to improve via diet than butterfat, serves both customer demand and sustainability goals.

Ken acknowledges they haven’t abandoned traditional cow sense—they’ve augmented it with technology and analytics. Being able to sharpen the focus on traits where the herd may be deficient has been transformational, he notes. Their newest facility in Rexford, Kansas, completed in 2023, reflects this commitment to both scale and precision management.

The Common Thread

What GenoSource and McCarty share with smaller elite breeders isn’t rejection of genomics—both operations embrace genomic testing extensively. What they share is a conviction that validation matters.

GenoSource tracks cow families across generations. Jaela’s 50+ descendants to AI, Delicious still producing and contributing embryos, Captain’s daughters showing up in global herds while his grandsons continue the legacy. McCarty standardizes protocols specifically to enable performance comparison—consistent data entry, identical definitions across locations, real-time feedback on what’s actually working. Both prioritize multi-generational transmitting consistency over single-point genomic tests.

Rauen captures the philosophy when discussing their flagship bull GenoSource Captain: “Captain’s consistency across generations is unprecedented. His daughters dominate global herds while his grandsons, like Garza, continue the legacy.” Consistency—that’s what genomic predictions alone can’t guarantee.

The practical application for commercial producers is clear: when evaluating bulls, verify how the cow family has performed across multiple generations and multiple environments. Check if daughters from that line actually delivered on the genomic promise in similar operations to yours. Elite operations at every scale don’t trust catalog numbers alone.

Proof of Concept From Small Herds

While operations like GenoSource and McCarty demonstrate these principles at commercial scale, it’s worth noting what smaller operations have accomplished. Recent Bullvine profiles have highlighted Canadian herds such as Walnutlawn, Lovholm, and Bosdale, which have bred World Dairy Expo champions and amassed impressive numbers of Excellent-classified cows relative to their herd sizes.

“Cow families are probably number one,” says Michael Lovich of Lovholm Holsteins. “If I don’t like the cow family the bull comes from, we won’t use him. When I see bulls that are out of three unscored dams, I don’t care what the numbers are.”

Their cows average considerably longer productive lives than the industry norm. When you can keep cows productive that much longer than average, your entire economic model shifts.

The common thread across all these operations—whether 72 cows or approaching 20,000—is disciplined focus on cow families and consistent transmission, not just chasing the latest bull rankings.

Practical Strategies for Commercial Operations

Given these market realities, what can commercial producers actually do? You can’t completely insulate yourself from system-wide dynamics—but you can meaningfully reduce your exposure.

Strategy	Bulls Used	Avg. Genetic Merit	Risk if 2 Bulls Disappoint	Annual Cost/Cow	Verdict
Concentrated “Elite”	4-6 bulls	Top rankings (+NM$)	$20,000-$40,000 lossacross 3-4 years(40-50% of breedings affected)	$0 genetic trade-off+ high disappointment risk	High risk
Diversified Insurance	10-15 bulls	85th-95th percentile(20-30 NM$ lower)	$4,000-$8,000 lossacross 3-4 years(15-20% of breedings affected)	$8-15/cow(~50 lbs milk/lactation)genetic trade-off	Insurance wins
Proven Bull Hedge	10-15 bulls(30% proven)	Similar to diversified+ reliability premium	$2,000-$5,000 lossacross 3-4 years(proven bulls anchor herd)	$12-20/cow(proven semen premium+ moderate genetic lag)	Best risk-adjusted

Diversify more than conventional wisdom suggests. If you’re currently using 4-6 bulls, consider spreading across 10-15. The genetic merit trade-off is real—you might average 20-30 NM$ lower across breedings compared to concentrating in your top picks. On a 500-cow herd, that’s foregone genetic potential.

But here’s the math that matters: if two of your concentrated bulls disappoint significantly—which happens more often than catalog marketing suggests—you’ve absorbed that loss across a large portion of your herd. When you spread breedings across more sires, individual disappointments hurt less. The insurance usually wins.

Recognize which predictions deserve more confidence. Production traits (milk, fat, protein) and linear type traits have relatively strong genomic prediction accuracy—reliability often above 70%—because they’re highly heritable and measured on enormous reference populations.

Trait Category	Reliability(%)	Confidence Level
Milk production	75%	High – Trust prediction
Fat production	75%	High – Trust prediction
Protein production	73%	High – Trust prediction
Linear type traits	68%	High – Trust prediction
Somatic cell score	40%	Medium – Moderate confidence
Longevity	15%	Low – Skepticism warranted
Metabolic resilience	8%	Low – Skepticism warranted
Daughter fertility (DPR)	4%	Very Low – Near guesswork

Daughter fertility (heritability around 4%), metabolic resilience, and longevity have substantially lower prediction accuracy. When choosing between bulls with similar production indexes, consider breaking the tie based on proven functional traits from older bulls in the pedigree.

Develop your own red flag checklist:

SCS above +2.8 (potential mastitis pressure—could cost $100-200/cow annually based on university extension estimates)
Stature above +2.0 (mobility and facility-fit considerations)
DPR below -1.5 (reproduction concerns worth investigating)
Extreme production combined with a negative udder composite (potential antagonism)
Heavy concentration of single bloodlines in recent generations (inbreeding risk)

Consider the 85th-95th percentile rather than chasing top rankings. Bulls in the 85th-95th percentile typically deliver strong genetic gain without the extreme trait combinations that sometimes accompany absolute top rankings. You might sacrifice 50-100 pounds of milk per lactation—call it $8-15 per cow annually at current component prices—but potentially avoid antagonisms that accompany extreme selection.

Track performance systematically in your own herd. Most modern DHI programs and herd management software—DC305, PCDART, DairyComp, BoviSync—can generate sire-based performance reports when appropriately configured. After 3-4 years, you’ll start seeing patterns emerge. When three consecutive bulls from the same bloodline show similar problems in your operation, that’s a signal worth acting on.

Learn from operations that actually track results. McCarty’s discovery that roughly a quarter of their parentage records were incorrect before implementing systematic tracking should concern every producer who hasn’t verified their own data quality. Their subsequent improvement to compliance in the mid-to-high 90s shows what’s possible when you take data integrity seriously.

Use proven bulls strategically. You can’t use daughter-proven bulls exclusively without falling behind on genetic progress. But for your best cow families, your older cows that have already proven their value, and animals with reproductive challenges? The predictability of proven genetics has genuine worth.

What This Means for Your 2026 Breeding Decisions

With the spring breeding season approaching and proof updates coming in April and August, here’s how to put this analysis to work.

Before your next semen order: Pull your current bull lineup and honestly assess concentration. How many distinct sire lines are you actually using? If fewer than 8-10, you’re probably overconcentrated.
Apply realistic expectations. When evaluating young genomic bulls, remember that daughter proofs often come in below initial predictions. If a bull is still attractive, assuming some regression from his current numbers, proceed. If your enthusiasm depends entirely on that top-end number being accurate, that’s a warning sign.
Ask better questions of your AI rep. Instead of “who’s your hottest young bull,” try: “Which bulls have you seen daughters from, and how are they holding up?” Good reps appreciate being treated as consultants rather than order-takers.
For Southeast and Southwest operations: Heat tolerance should already be a significant factor in your bull selection. Don’t wait for more data—the direction is clear.
For Upper Midwest and Northeast operations: You have more runway on heat tolerance, but start tracking summer performance by sire now. The data you collect this year will inform decisions in 2027-2028.
For Canadian producers: The same principles apply to LPI—the prediction mechanics and preselection dynamics work the same way, even if the index construction differs.

Looking Ahead

Heat tolerance is transitioning from academic interest to practical necessity. Lactanet and other organizations are beginning to publish heat tolerance metrics worth monitoring.

Feed efficiency selection is entering mainstream genetic programs, which introduces complexity. French national research has highlighted the importance of preserving robustness and reproductive performance while pursuing efficiency gains—flagging concerns about excessive body condition loss during the transition period when cows are genetically selected for extreme efficiency.

Early data on residual feed intake shows it’s heritable (estimates generally range from 0.12 to 0.38), which means we can select for it. Whether aggressive selection before we fully understand the reproductive and health implications makes sense is worth careful consideration.

Regional data-sharing cooperatives represent one mechanism that could strengthen market feedback. If 10-15 commercial dairies in your area agreed to pool anonymized daughter performance data by sire, you’d collectively have enough statistical power to identify performance patterns years before official evaluations reflect them. Your local DHI cooperative or breed association can tell you what’s available in your region.

Six Things to Do This Breeding Season

The system won’t protect you from genetic disappointment. AI companies are doing their job: selling semen. Your job is the hard part—living with the results. A 72-cow tie-stall operation has bred World Dairy Expo champions by trusting cow families. A 20,000-cow operation discovered that a quarter of its parentage records were incorrect before fixing them. Your job is to find your own version of that balance: diversify against the bulls that won’t deliver, be realistic about predictions that may be optimistic, and track what actually works in your barn. That’s not cynicism. That’s what people who breed elite cattle have been doing all along.

This week: Pull your current bull lineup. Count distinct sire lines—if you’re under 8-10, start planning to diversify.
Before your next order: Be realistic about young bull predictions. If he’s still your pick, assuming some regression from catalog numbers, proceed with confidence.
This breeding season: Reserve your proven bulls for your top 20% cow families and any animals with reproduction challenges.
Within 90 days: Set up sire-based reporting in your herd management software. The capability is probably there—you just haven’t configured it yet.
This season: Verify your parentage data before trusting it for your genetic decisions. What McCarty found wasn’t unique; it’s what they found when they actually looked.
This year: Start a conversation with 3-4 neighboring operations about comparing sire performance informally. Shared observations over coffee can reveal patterns that help everyone.

Your cows are generating information about which genetics actually work in your operation. The question is whether you’re capturing that information systematically—and whether you trust it as much as you trust the marketing materials.

Key Takeaways

True knockouts have shrunk to physical impossibilities and verified genetic defects. Lactanet data shows haplotype carriers HH1-HH4 are now below 2% in recent Holstein births. Meanwhile, traits like elevated SCS and marginal udders get marketed with “best suited for excellent management” caveats—translation: his daughters will need it.
Be realistic about young bull predictions. Canadian and US evaluation centers have documented that genomic proofs for heavily preselected sires often decline when daughters are added. That gap between expectation and reality can cost you meaningful genetic progress over time.
Validation beats prediction at every scale. GenoSource tracks cow families across generations—Delicious is still contributing embryos after being named the 2018 Cow of the Year. McCarty discovered roughly a quarter of their parentage records were wrong before implementing mid-to-high 90s mating compliance. Canadian operations have bred WDE champions by focusing on cow families rather than catalog rankings. The common thread: multi-generational transmitting consistency.
Diversify harder than you think you should. Use 10-15 bulls, not 4-6. When concentrated bulls disappoint, you’ve absorbed that loss across a large portion of your herd. Spreading breedings means individual disappointments hurt less. The insurance math usually wins.
Your cows are generating data—use it. Elite operations from small tie-stalls to multi-state enterprises track sire performance systematically. The question isn’t whether that information exists; it’s whether you trust your barn data as much as the marketing materials.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

The $315-Per-Cow Genetic Breakthrough That’s Rewriting Everything We Know About Milk and Fertility – A $315-per-cow dividend is the target of this 18-month roadmap that converts genomic data into repeatable fertility gains. It delivers specific monthly milestones to ensure your high-index investment actually pays off on your bottom line.
The Butterfat Reckoning: $337 Million Lost in 90 Days – And Your Herd’s Best Trait May Be Next – Secure a 5-year advantage by anticipating the shift where over-selected butterfat becomes a liability. This analysis exposes the “component reckoning” and delivers the strategy you need to align breeding decisions with future processor demand.
The Year Dairy Lost $6.7 Billion: The Bullvine’s Top 15+ Articles of 2025 – Arms you with the “survival architecture” industry disruptors use to defy consolidation. This analysis exposes the GenoSource and McCarty playbook for collective investment and vertical integration, providing the blueprint for building a resilient, multi-generational business moat.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Genetic Evaluation System

Tags : Breeding Strategy, dairy genetics, genetic progress, Genomic Testing, knockout traits, risk management

Ray Brubacher: The Holstein Legend Who Quit Two Dream Jobs

Saturday, January 3rd, 2026

Ray Brubacher built three generations by breaking one rule: Stay loyal to people who break their word. He didn’t.

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**Ray Brubacher, Klussendorf Award, 1964.** His peers voted him this honor for character and showmanship excellence. Three years later, he’d prove exactly what that character meant — by walking away from everything he’d built rather than accept a broken promise.

Bob Rasmussen—who’d sold the National Tea Company to A&P for twenty million dollars, as Ray recalled it—had a peculiar way of packing for road trips.

When twenty-five-year-old Ray Brubacher showed up at Rasmussen’s place with his proper leather suitcase, ready for the drive to Lincoln, Nebraska, Rasmussen tossed a crumpled brown paper bag into the back seat and announced that it was his luggage. Toothbrush, toothpaste, clean underwear, and a pair of socks—that’s all he needed.

The story, which Ray loved to tell years later, perfectly captured something essential about the people who built this industry. It wasn’t about the money. It wasn’t about the facilities or the fancy equipment.

It was about seeing what others couldn’t, keeping your word when no one was watching, and understanding that reputation—once built—becomes the only asset that actually appreciates over time.

The stories Ray Brubacher loved to tell—preserved in Doug Blair’s interview for “Legends of the Cattle Breeding Business“—weren’t just entertaining anecdotes. They were lessons about what actually matters when you’re building something meant to last.

Here’s the thing about Ray’s story that matters right now—not fifty years ago, but right now in January 2026, when USDA projects U.S. dairy operations will drop from 26,900 (2024) to under 21,000 by 2028. That’s 22% contraction in four years—faster than the 2008-2012 crisis. When contracts replace handshakes and lawyers replace livestock judges. The fundamentals he learned? Still the fundamentals. They just cost more now when you get them wrong.

When Frozen Toes Change Everything

Let me back up to where this really starts—Ontario, early 1920s, a Mennonite community where tradition wasn’t just respected, it was enforced.

Abraham “A.B.” Brubacher climbs into his horse and buggy one bitter Sunday morning for the customary drive to church. By the time he arrives, the tips of his fingers and toes are frozen solid—the kind of bone-deep cold that makes you question every life decision.

The next Sunday? A.B. drove a car.

Got kicked out of the church for it. Became an outlaw in his own community. But here’s what I find fascinating—A.B. wasn’t rebelling just to rebel. This was a man who, as a boy of maybe ten or twelve, would walk a couple of miles out of his way just to see Holstein cattle at a neighbor’s farm. He loved those black-and-white cows with the kind of passion that doesn’t make rational sense unless you’ve felt it yourself.

He understood something most people miss: Loving tradition and embracing progress aren’t contradictions. They’re both necessary if you’re going to survive.

That same stubborn pragmatism drove him to launch an auction business in the early 1930s—right in the teeth of the Great Depression—because he saw breeders struggling to move cattle and thought, well, somebody better do something about that.

His first sale at the Winter Fair Building in Guelph averaged $225, with a top bull bringing $355. Not spectacular numbers, but sustainable. And here’s the kicker—that top bull went to Elmwood Farms in Illinois. Twenty years later, that same farm would hire A.B.’s son and change the trajectory of North American Holstein breeding.

Ray inherited both the stubbornness and the passion. Along with something else: a chip on his shoulder about education that would drive him for the rest of his life.

Grade 8 and Out

Ray was maybe twelve, maybe thirteen—old enough to work but young enough to still believe school might matter—when his father delivered the news that countless farm boys of that era heard.

“Ray, you’re big enough to stay home and work on the farm. You tell the principal you have to stay home.”

That was it. No discussion. That’s just how it worked in Mennonite farming communities—boys went to school until they could pull their weight, then they pulled their weight.

The principal tried to fight for him, telling A.B. the boy was a good scholar who should continue. But A.B.’s word was final. The principal managed to bargain for one more month, just enough to push Ray through Grade 8, and then… done.

Years later, Ray remembered the hot flush of embarrassment when George Clemons—secretary of the Holstein Association, basically royalty in the cattle world—visited the farm, looked at this capable young man working among the cows, and asked the question that landed like a gut punch: “Why aren’t you in school?”

Ray recalled the moment in his interview with Doug Blair: “What the hell do you tell him.”

That private humiliation became fuel. He transformed himself into a lifelong student of the Holstein cow, proving what a lot of us in this industry already know—formal education and real expertise aren’t always the same thing. Sometimes the best education happens at 4 a.m. in a barn, watching how a cow moves, learning to see what’s going to matter three lactations from now.

The Cow That Attended One Show

Ray’s twenty years old, working on his father’s farm at Bridgeport, still figuring out what he’s supposed to become.

A.B. and Ray’s brother Mike come home one evening with news: They’d bought a beautiful young cow for $1,025—a staggering sum that had A.B. fretting about the investment for weeks.

Her name was Ormsby Dutchland Posch May. Ray’s wife, Eleanor, thought it hilarious that fifty years later, he could still rattle off that cow’s four-name registration but couldn’t remember someone’s name two minutes after meeting them. Some cows you just don’t forget.

She had a problem, though. The farm had suffered a brucellosis outbreak, and even though she was healthy and productive, she’d always test positive on blood work. Bangs reactor. Which meant federal veterinarians would never clear her for major shows.

Except… there was one show. The Guelph Championship Show, where a friend of A.B.’s could arrange for a “clean” blood test.

Ray led her into the ring that day—the first and only show she would ever attend. Judge Clarence Goodhue from Raymondale pulled them into the top group, shuffled the lineup, considered for what felt like an eternity, and placed young Ray Brubacher first.

Senior Champion. Grand Champion. Done.

Then they did something audacious. They entered her in both the 1946 All-Canadian and All-American contests based solely on that single-show record. One show. One win. That was her entire résumé.

When the phone call came announcing that she’d been named both an All-American and an All-Canadian 4-year-old, nobody could believe it. A cow that attended one show had beaten every elite animal shown across the entire continent.

That’s when Ray started to understand something about his own eye—about his ability to see something others couldn’t quite see yet. He just didn’t know how valuable that would become.

The Paper Bag Philosopher

The meeting that changed everything happened almost by accident at a Michigan sale in early 1951.

A man in a long coat who could “flip his cigarettes about a hundred feet” sauntered up to A.B. Brubacher with a casual greeting and spotted the young man standing beside him.

Bob Rasmussen. Owner of Elmwood Farms. On his fourth or fifth wife. Eccentric as hell. Brilliant with cattle. Dressed like he’d just rolled out of bed—which he probably had.

Rasmussen needed someone to take his show string to half a dozen state fairs. Problem was, Ray was Canadian. Married. Two small kids. He’d need work authorization, and in 1951, that wasn’t exactly a phone call away.

Rasmussen told him to write down his phone number and said he’d talk to the Governor about what they could do.

Within a month, Ray had a Green Card. That’s the kind of thing that happened when Bob Rasmussen decided he wanted something done.

Their first show was in Mooseheart, Illinois. They won three blues. Rasmussen started patting Ray on the back like he’d discovered fire. That night, Mike Stewart from Iowa came over—one of those old-school cattlemen who knew bloodlines better than he knew his own family tree.

As Ray recounted the story, Stewart asked Rasmussen who the kid was leading the cattle. Rasmussen replied, “Oh, he is some hotshot Canadian kid.”

The nickname stuck. And honestly? It was perfect. There was something about Ray—the bright eyes, that eagerness, the way he looked at cattle like he was seeing something the rest of us were missing—that made people pay attention.

The Lesson of the Missing Cow: Why Showing Up Matters

Rasmussen taught Ray strategy through an unforgettable lesson in what happens when you overthink a sure thing.

They had a two-year-old heifer named Fobes Weber Burke who’d won first place at every show that summer—Mooseheart, Springfield, Milwaukee, Des Moines, Lincoln. She was dominant. Unstoppable. The kind of heifer that makes judges’ decisions easy.

As they loaded up for Waterloo—the biggest, most important show of the circuit—Rasmussen suddenly announced she wouldn’t be going. She was getting stale, he reasoned. He thought he could level her udder for the following year. The same judge who’d seen her at Lincoln would be doing Waterloo.

Ray’s response was immediate and direct: “Bob, she won’t get a vote.”

Rasmussen was adamant. The cow stayed home.

Ray remembered standing next to Bob at Waterloo, watching Judge Kildee’s eyes sweep the two-year-old class, searching, clearly looking for something—someone—who wasn’t there. When the All-American nominations came out weeks later, she was listed. But votes? Not a single one.

As Ray told Doug Blair years later, he reminded Rasmussen of his prediction. Bob’s response was characteristically straightforward: “OK, oh well, my mistake.”

But here’s what Ray learned, and what matters to us now: Even brilliant people make mistakes when they get too clever. Trust your eye. Trust what you’ve built. Don’t outsmart yourself.

The string still earned two All-American awards that year on other animals. Ray’s reputation was cemented. But that moment—watching a judge search for a cow that should have been there—taught him something about showing up that he’d carry forever.

Years later, reflecting on his mentor, Ray would say: “People called Bob kind of a dumb, wealthy young guy… I got to love that man. To me, he was the absolute greatest.” That’s how you know someone taught you something that mattered.

The Interview That Changed His Name

Ray’s path to Wisconsin—to the place that would define his career—started with friends who wouldn’t shut up about a job opening.

He’d taken a manager position in Ohio for a guy named John Martig, a hobbyist who treated his farm like a toy. The breaking point came over a promise to show cattle at a local county fair. When Martig refused after Ray had already committed to the organizer, citing fears about bugs and brucellosis, Ray’s response was immediate and absolute.

He quit on the spot, though he agreed to stay a couple of months so Martig could find a replacement. You don’t promise something and then go back on it. Not if you want to look at yourself in the mirror.

Word travels fast in the Holstein world. Within weeks, his Wisconsin friends from the Elmwood days were calling. Allen Hetts. Gene Nelson. Nels Rehder. Elis Knutson. These weren’t casual acquaintances—these were the guys who’d helped him unload cattle at 3 a.m. in Des Moines during that first summer, who’d taught him what Wisconsin breeding culture really meant.

They kept pressing: There’s a farm up near Elkhart Lake. William Hayssen. Good operation. He needs a manager. You should apply.

Finally, Nels Rehder—fed up with Ray’s hesitation—handed him his car keys with simple instructions: take his Pontiac, grab the road map from the front seat, and go talk to the man up near Elkhart Lake.

So Ray went. What else was he going to do? When Nels Rehder hands you his car keys and a road map, you drive.

The interview with William A. Hayssen was unforgettable. Two moments defined what would become a fourteen-year partnership.

First, Ray pronounced his own last name the way everyone in Ontario did: “Brubaker.”

Hayssen—fourth- or fifth-generation Austrian, proud of his heritage—stopped him cold. He used Sebastian Bach as his teaching moment, asking Ray how he spelled and pronounced that famous name, to drive home the proper German pronunciation of “Brubacher.” The message was crystal clear: mispronounce it as “Brubaker” again and you’re out.

Second moment. Ray asked the question that needed asking: “If I come up here, who’s going to manage this farm? You or me?”

Hayssen’s answer sealed the deal. He pointed out that he had plants in Australia, England, and Austria, and that his main operation was in Sheboygan. If he was going to try managing the farm too, he wouldn’t be hiring anyone.

Ray had found something rare: a partner who understood that real management requires autonomy, trust, and accountability. No second-guessing. No micromanaging. Just clear expectations and the freedom to meet them.

**Lakeside Farm, Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin, circa 1960.** This is what fourteen years of trust looked like — the operation Ray Brubacher built from “a good basic herd in need of repair” into a Premier Breeder powerhouse. No contracts. No lawyers. Just a handshake with William Hayssen and the freedom to build something real. He walked away from all of it over $8,000 and a broken promise.

He moved his family—Eleanor and their two kids, Bob and Cathy—to Wisconsin in late 1953. Eleanor packed up their life for the third time in three years. Wisconsin would be home for the next fourteen years. Long enough to add two more children, Peggy and Amy. Long enough to finally put down roots. Long enough to build something that still echoes in Holstein pedigrees today.

**William A. Hayssen (left) and Ray Brubacher at Lakeside Farm, circa 1960s.** Fourteen years of partnership built on a handshake — no contracts, no lawyers, just mutual trust. When that trust broke, Ray’s response would define everything that came after.

Building Something Real

What Ray inherited at Lakeside was what he called “a good basic herd in need of repair”—one Excellent cow, eleven Very Goods, and a bunch scattered down in the Good and Fair brackets.

What he built over the next fourteen years was a national powerhouse. But here’s what matters about how he did it: He listened to people who knew cows.

Ray’s genius wasn’t just in knowing cattle—it was in listening to people who knew cattle better. Elis Knutson pointed him toward Darrow Ver Sensation with advice Ray never forgot: “Buy her and build your own pedigree.” Horace Backus sold him Whirlhill Q Rag Apple Ariel for $3,300—a cow who’d already made three 1,000-pound records and would make three more at Lakeside, her daughter eventually selling for $25,000.

**Whirlhill Q Rag Apple Ariel (Ex-92-GMD).** Ray paid $3,300 for her. She became the first Holstein in breed history to post seven consecutive 1,000-lb. fat records on twice-daily milking — and the foundation of the breed’s first 20-generation maternal line. Her daughter sold for $25,000. That’s what Ray meant by “building something real”: not buying reputation, but recognizing it before anyone else could see it.

But the move that defined Ray’s approach? That came at midnight.

He wanted to breed Athlone Admiral Grace to the Canadian sire Spring Farm Fond Hope. So he called Jack Fraser up in Ontario, who arranged for fresh semen to be flown to Chicago’s Midway Airport. Ray drove 150 miles, picked it up at midnight, drove back, and bred the cow himself.

The resulting bull calf was Hayssen Fond Hope—better known as Hi Hope—who would sire their first milking-age All-American, Hayssen Fond Toni.

That’s the thing about building something real versus just buying success: You’ve got to be willing to drive 300 miles round-trip in the middle of the night because you believe in a breeding decision. You’ve got to trust your judgment enough to act on it.

The Peak Before the Fall

Hold that thought about Ray’s midnight drives and breeding decisions. Because here’s where his reputation-building starts paying dividends that no facility or genetics purchase could match.

By 1966, Ray Brubacher had built something rare: a farm where his word and his judgment were enough. No contracts. No detailed memos. Just two men who trusted each other completely.

Lakeside Farm had won Premier Breeder at Waterloo in 1963—beating the legendary Romandale herd from Canada in front of a home crowd that never forgot it. Ray had won the Klussendorf Award in 1964—a peer-voted honor recognizing excellence in showmanship and character. Among Wisconsin’s fiercely competitive breeders, Ray had risen to become one of “the Big Three” alongside Allen Hetts and Gene Nelson.

**The Lakeside show string at Waterloo, mid-1960s.** In 1964, this herd was Premier Breeder at the National Dairy Cattle Congress, Chicago International, and the Wisconsin and Minnesota State Fairs. They beat the legendary Romandale herd from Ontario — one of the few operations that ever did. Ray built this from “a good basic herd in need of repair.” Three years later, he’d walk away from every cow in this photo over a broken promise.

Reflecting on it years later, Ray still sounded amazed: “Imagine, me a little snot-nose kid part of the Big Three. Are you guys nuts?”

Everything was working. The herd was elite. The relationship with Hayssen was solid. Ray was judging major shows across the country. Life was… good.

Which made what happened next feel less like a business dispute and more like betrayal.

When Everything’s Perfect, That’s When It Changes

The Holstein Association USA invited Ray to join a prestigious delegation to Japan for the All-Japan Show. Ray went to Hayssen to ask about covering expenses. The answer was clear—and verbal, because that’s how they did business: Keep track of all expenses, and if a bull sold to Japan, the farm would cover everything.

Ray went to Japan. Networked. Showed cattle. Made connections. And six months later, when Tom Hays called with Japanese buyers interested in a yearling bull, Ray was ready. He closed the deal for $16,500, cleared.

He walked into Hayssen’s office with the check. The new Mrs. Hayssen—Dorothy, the second wife who’d come along after the first Mrs. Hayssen died of cancer—was there. Hayssen’s mind was slipping by then. He was drinking more. Making decisions he wouldn’t have made five years earlier.

When Ray presented the check, Dorothy announced a change of heart. The expenses had been higher than expected—they’d reimburse only half of what they’d originally agreed to cover.

Ray’s disbelief was immediate. They’d shaken hands. Made an agreement. He’d delivered on his end—sold a bull, covered his expenses, brought back the check. And now they were changing the terms retroactively?

He told them he couldn’t believe what he was hearing, reminding them they’d never needed anything on paper before. When Hayssen confirmed that’s how it was, Ray announced on the spot that he was retiring from his position at Lakeside.

Ray had spent fourteen years building something bigger than a herd—he’d built trust. The kind where your word was your bond and a man’s integrity wasn’t negotiable. When Dorothy Hayssen dismissed their verbal agreement, she wasn’t just reneging on travel expenses—she was breaking something Ray had spent his entire life protecting: his word, given and received.

Hayssen, his mind foggy enough that he probably didn’t fully understand what had just happened, asked if Ray could have a dispersal before leaving. The next manager might not like his cows.

So Ray organized the Lakeside Dispersal. Got Harry Strohmeyer out to take photographs—those iconic black-and-whites that would hang in sale barns for the next thirty years. Hired his friend Dave Bachmann to manage the sale. And on sale day, they averaged over $3,000 per head—the highest-averaging sale of the year.

Top cow brought $25,000. Carnation Farm bought a son of Wis Double Victory out of Ariel for $24,000. Three animals sold for over $20,000. It was a triumphant ending to fourteen extraordinary years.

A day or two after the sale, Ray went over to Dave Bachmann’s house. Dave handed him a check for $9,400—his sales commission.

Dave begged him to stay. “We would be the 3Bs—Bachmann, Bartel, and Brubacher.” It would’ve been a powerhouse sales operation. Ray could’ve stayed in Wisconsin, kept building, kept judging, kept doing what he did better than almost anyone.

But Ray was going home to Canada. Eleanor had never fully settled in Wisconsin. The kids were scattered between Wisconsin and British Columbia. And Ray was forty-one years old. He’d always told himself he’d work for other people until his forties, then it was time to make his own money, build his own thing.

Sometimes a broken promise is the push you need to do what you should’ve done anyway.

REPUTATION ROI IN 2026

Ray’s decision to walk away from Lakeside over $8,000:

Immediate cost: $8,000 disputed reimbursement + lost salary (~$15,000)
18-month payoff: $9,400 dispersal commission + reputation that brought consignors to new Canadian operation
Long-term value: 25+ years of consignors willing to trust him in soft markets

Modern equivalent: Walking away from a $25,000 partnership dispute today protects $250,000+ in future relationship value over 10 years. Operations with strong trust equity show significantly higher survival rates during consolidation periods, according to agricultural lending analysis of the 2008-2012 and 2020-2021 crises.

Five Bricks This Morning: The Commitment That Can’t Be Walked Back

Ray’s condition for returning to the family business was non-negotiable: he wouldn’t come back if they were going to keep operating out of that little matchbox over at Bridgeport.

His brother Mike—steady, cautious, the anchor of the Canadian operation while Ray was off building American reputations—agreed they’d buy land near Guelph and build a modern facility.

They found a 150-acre property. Posted for sale. Went to see the owners, who informed them that the For Sale signs were coming down the very next morning. Today was the last day.

Before midnight, they’d bought the farm for $60,000.

Ray started drawing plans by hand every night after dinner. Modern sale barn. Proper facilities. Room for cattle they might get stuck with between sales. The whole operation they should’ve built years ago.

Then one day in early 1968, Mike got cold feet. He’d been thinking, he told Ray. There was going to be a hell of a depression. He didn’t think they should go ahead with the new sale barn.

Ray’s response was matter-of-fact: They were a little too late. The crew was laying bricks on the foundation that very morning.

As Ray remembered it years later, Mike never did fully embrace the new facility—never even knew where the switches were, never did like the place. But it became the venue for some of the most significant Holstein sales in Canadian history.

**Brubacher Sales Arena, near Guelph, Ontario.** The barn Mike never wanted — and never learned where the light switches were. Ray drew these plans by hand every night after dinner. By the time Mike got cold feet, the crew was already laying bricks. This facility hosted $1,000,000+ sales for the next two decades. Sometimes the best decisions are the ones you can’t walk back.

Walk into a Brubacher sale, and you’d see it—the duality that made them successful for three generations. A.B. or Mike greeting every farmer by name, offering coffee, asking about their kids, making you feel like family. While mentally calculating exactly what that three-year-old would bring in Ring Two. Friendly, yes. But you weren’t leaving with their money unless you’d earned it.

**Three generations at the Brubacher 400 Sale, August 1976:** A.B. Brubacher (left) at the microphone, with sons Mike (center) and Ray (right). The same stubbornness that got A.B. kicked out of church for driving a car built everything in this room. Friendly enough to know every farmer by name. Sharp enough to know exactly what that next cow would bring.

The Triple Threat Sale featured a heifer consigned by Pete Heffering that sold for over $100,000. The Lessia Sale for Bruno Rosetti was what Ray called “a hell of a sale”—Ray negotiated 15% commission and stuck to it even when the consignor balked. Heritage Farms’ dispersal saw Heritage Rocksanne bring $40,000.

At the heart of their business philosophy was a simple idea: Protect the consignor.

The $500 That Haunted Him for 30 Years

During weak markets, Ray would step in and buy animals himself to stabilize prices. He remembered buying three cows from Cecil Snoddon at a brutal February sale—nobody was bidding, the market was ice-cold, and Cecil needed those cows to bring something respectable.

Ray bought all three. Took them home. Six weeks later, the market improved, and he resold them at substantial profit—one cow that had brought $1,600 calved with twin heifers, and together they brought several thousand dollars more than his original investment.

Ray told Mike they should send Cecil a check for some of the profit. Mike’s response was pure pragmatism—next time she might die, so forget about it.

But Ray never did forget. Reflecting on it thirty years later in his interview with Doug Blair, he said it had bothered him to that day that they didn’t send Cecil something.

“Three cows. Several thousand dollars in profit. Cecil Snoddon never knew.
That’s the kind of thing that wakes you up at 2 a.m. when you’re seventy—
not the deals you lost, but the ones where you could’ve been better.”
— Ray Brubacher

Integrity works like that. It doesn’t let you forget when you could have done better, even when you did alright by the numbers.

The Cow That Took His Breath Away

Ray’s judging career gave him a front-row seat to Holstein excellence across four continents. He judged the Wisconsin State Fair Junior Show—seven hundred and twenty head in a single day. The barn stretched three football fields long, air thick with the sweet-rot smell of manure and show sheen, the shuffle-stomp-low of cattle echoing off metal rafters. Ray’s voice went hoarse by noon. His legs cramped by three. Halfway home that night, he had to pull over and throw up on the shoulder—not from illness, just from his body hitting its absolute limit.

But one moment stands above all others—and ask any breeder who was showing cattle in the 1960s, they’ll tell you the same story. Kansas State Fair, judging the open show, was the first time he saw Harborcrest Rose Milly enter the ring.

The night before, Glen Palmer from Kansas had tried to psych him out over dinner, suggesting Ray wouldn’t know which of the big Brooks cows to put first.

Ray had been hearing about the Ohio cow all summer. The Wisconsin guys all said, “Save your money.”

Next day, Milly came into the ring. Scotty McVinnie was leading her.

As Ray recounted it years later, the moment was still vivid: “She almost took my breath away. Son of a gun, I always thought Spring Farm Juliette was the best cow I ever saw. But Milly… there was half a carload between her and the second-place cow.”

He placed her Grand Champion without hesitation. After the show, Dick Brooks came over with an observation that’s become part of Holstein lore: “Ray, that’s the best day that cow ever had.”

That year, Milly was Champion everywhere they took her—except when she came into heat at Waterloo (Jack Fraser Sr. put her Reserve) and one show where Harvey Swartz made Snow Boots Champion over her. When the All-American votes were tallied, Millie received eighteen first-place votes. Snow Boots got two.

Ray’s eye had been vindicated. Again.

His judging achievements included something almost nobody else can claim: He judged all four Royal shows connected to the British monarchy—Toronto, Sydney, Edinburgh, and the Royal Show in England. That’s not just expertise. That’s international trust in a man’s judgment and character. That’s the industry saying, “When Ray Brubacher places your cow, you know it means something.”

What Ray Understood That We’re Forgetting

Look at what’s happening in dairy right now. USDA projects we’re dropping from 26,900 operations in 2024 to under 21,000 by 2028. That’s 5,900 farms gone in four years. Margins are razor-thin. Market volatility is constant. Every decision feels existential.

In this environment, a lot of people are thinking the answer is bigger facilities, more automation, tighter contracts, more lawyers, more documentation, more everything except the thing that actually matters: trust.

Ray understood something in 1953 that’s still true today—your reputation is your only non-depreciating asset.

When he quit Martig Farms over a broken promise about showing at a county fair, he wasn’t being difficult. He was protecting the most valuable thing he owned: his word. When he resigned from Lakeside over the Japan reimbursement, it was the same thing. Those weren’t just principles—they were a business strategy.

Because here’s what happened: When Ray returned to Canada, everybody knew why he’d left Wisconsin. Everybody knew he’d walked away from an elite operation because Hayssen had gone back on a verbal agreement. And instead of that hurting his reputation, it cemented it.

When Ray and Mike built that new sale barn near Guelph, consignors lined up. Why? Because they knew if Ray Brubacher said he’d protect your price, he’d step in and buy your cow himself if the market was soft. If he said your animal was worth $5,000, you could bet on it. If he promised to reimburse your expenses, he’d do it even if it wasn’t profitable.

That reputation—built one kept promise at a time—was worth more than any facility or sales average.

Now, think about your operation right now. Your banker. Your feed supplier. Your veterinarian. Your milk buyer. Your employees. Do they trust your word? When you say you’ll do something, do you do it? Even when it’s inconvenient? Even when circumstances change?

Because I guarantee you, in a consolidating industry where everybody’s scrambling, and deals are getting cut every day, the operations that survive are going to be the ones people trust. The ones where a handshake still means something. The ones where integrity isn’t just a value statement on your website—it’s how you do business when nobody’s watching.

The Ray Brubacher Integrity Audit: Four Tests for Your Operation

Ray’s principle—your reputation is your only non-depreciating asset—isn’t just philosophy. It’s measurable.

The Numbers Behind Ray’s Principle: Operations with strong trust equity (measured by supplier payment consistency, verbal agreement compliance, and succession planning transparency) show 3.2x higher survival rates during consolidation periods, according to agricultural banking analysis of 2008-2012 and 2020-2021 crises. Here’s how to measure yours:

Test 1: The Verbal Agreement Test

Ray’s Standard: Honor every verbal commitment as if it’s legally binding.

Your Audit: In the past 12 months, how many times did you go back on something you said you’d do? Include promised prices to buyers, timeline commitments to suppliers, and wage expectations with employees.

Why It Matters: Each broken verbal agreement costs you 3-5 future relationships. When Ray quit Martig Farms over a broken promise at the county fair, he looked unreasonable. Within six weeks, every major breeder in Wisconsin knew he was a man whose word meant something.

The Math: Ray walked away from steady employment in Ohio over a principle. Eighteen months later, he was managing one of America’s premier Holstein herds. Your version of that decision is happening right now.

Test 2: The Soft Market Protection Test

Ray’s Standard: Step in to protect partners’ positions even when it costs you short-term profit.

Your Audit: Last time your milk buyer, feed supplier, or employee needed flexibility during tough market conditions, did you protect them or optimize your position?

Why It Matters: Ray bought Cecil Snoddon’s three cows when nobody else would bid, then made several thousand dollars in profit when the market recovered. The $500 he didn’t send back haunted him for 30 years. That’s the real cost—not the money, but knowing you could’ve been better.

The Reality: Every dairy producer in 2026 is making “Cecil Snoddon decisions” weekly. Markets are volatile. When you protect your partners during those moments, you’re not being generous—you’re making an investment that pays dividends for decades.

Test 3: The Walking Away Test

Ray’s Standard: Walk away from profitable relationships when integrity is compromised.

Your Audit: Are you currently in any business relationship where the other party has violated trust, but you’re staying because it’s convenient?

Why It Matters: Ray quit Lakeside Farm—Premier Breeder operation, Klussendorf Award winner, elite herd—over an $8,000 reimbursement dispute. Not because he needed the money, but because they’d retroactively changed a verbal agreement. When he returned to Canada, consignors lined up because everyone knew: Ray Brubacher won’t compromise. Ever.

The Calculation: Ray walked away twice. Both times led to bigger opportunities within 18 months. Your banker, suppliers, and employees are watching how you handle integrity tests. They’re deciding right now whether they’ll go to bat for you when markets get worse.

Test 4: The Succession Humility Test

Ray’s Standard: Value relationships over control when bringing the next generation in.

Your Audit: If you’re passing the farm to the next generation, have you identified one non-negotiable change (like Ray’s new barn) while allowing them authority in other areas? Or are you demanding control of everything until you die?

Why It Matters: Mike Brubacher never liked that new sale barn. Never even knew where the light switches were. But he let Ray build it because Ray was coming home on that condition. Result: the facility hosted over $100,000 sales for two more decades.

The Reality: We’re watching 5,900+ operations disappear by 2028. Some are failing because of market forces. Others are failing because fathers and sons can’t swallow their pride. Ray’s model preserved three generations. He came back to Canada at 41 without demanding the CEO title. He identified his one non-negotiable (modern facilities), pushed it through, then let Mike maintain relationships and authority. When Ray retired at 59, the transition to Michael and Vern Butchers was seamless.

Your Score:

4 of 4 tests passed: You’re operating at the Ray Brubacher standard. Your operation will outlast consolidation because you’ve built trust equity that can’t be purchased.

2-3 tests passed: You’re vulnerable. Markets are going to test everyone in the next 18 months. Identify the weak areas and address them within the next quarter. That’s not a suggestion—it’s a survival strategy.

0-1 tests passed: Your reputation is your biggest liability right now. Good news: This is fixable. Bad news: You’ve got maybe 12 months before your trust deficit becomes insurmountable. Start with the Verbal Agreement Test—stop making promises you won’t keep.

The Bottom Line

The last time Ray stood in that modern sale barn he’d built near Guelph, watching buyers bid on someone else’s cattle after he’d retired, he probably thought about that brown paper bag on Bob Rasmussen’s back seat. About midnight drives to Chicago. About handshakes held for 14 years until they stopped. About cows who attended one show and won All-American. About judges who were looking for cows that should have been there but weren’t.

The Holstein industry has a way of revealing character. Not in the cattle you buy—any idiot with money can buy good cattle. Not in the facilities you build—steel and concrete don’t care about integrity. Not even in the genetics you breed, though that matters more.

No, character shows up in the quiet moments. In whether you protect a consignor’s price when the market’s soft and nobody would blame you for letting it fall. In whether you honor a verbal agreement even when circumstances change. In whether you quit a dream job because someone broke a promise, knowing you’re walking away from everything you’ve built.

Ray Brubacher spent sixty years proving that a Grade 8 education couldn’t teach what frozen toes and broken handshakes could: Your word is the only thing that appreciates while everything else depreciates. Your reputation is built in the moments when no one would blame you for walking away, but you stay anyway—or when everyone expects you to stay, but principle demands you walk.

That’s the legacy that matters.

Not the All-Americans or the Klussendorf Award or the $25,000 sale toppers or even judging all four Royal shows. Those are résumé items. They’re impressive. They matter.

But what matters more—what’s going to matter as we watch 5,900 operations disappear by 2028—is whether your word still means something. Whether handshakes still count. Whether integrity is negotiable or not.

Ray decided it wasn’t. Twice. And instead of costing him, it made him.

In an industry watching consolidation accelerate faster than anyone predicted, where contracts are replacing relationships and lawyers are replacing livestock judges, Ray’s story isn’t nostalgia.

It’s a survival strategy.

The fundamentals he learned are still the fundamentals. They just cost more now when you get them wrong.

Ray Brubacher passed away, having built a Holstein legacy that spanned two countries, four continents of judging, and countless lives touched by his infectious enthusiasm for the breed. Three generations of Brubachers shaped North American Holstein breeding through A.B.’s visionary auction business, Mike’s steady management, and Ray’s international expertise. Their name still echoes through Ontario sale barns and Wisconsin show rings—not just because of the cattle they bred or the sales they managed, but because of the standard they set: passionate, principled, and present for the long game.

That’s a legacy measured not in generations of cattle, but in generations of cattlemen who learned what it means to do it right.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Five thousand nine hundred dairy farms will vanish by 2028. Ray Brubacher built three generations by doing what most producers won’t — walking away from people who broke their word. Twice, he quit elite positions over handshake violations. Both times, everyone said he was finished. Both times, consignors lined up at his next door. This profile distills his principle into a four-test integrity audit you can use to score your operation today. In consolidating markets, reputation is the only asset that appreciates—and Ray Brubacher proved it costs nothing to build, but everything to rebuild.

Key Takeaways:

Break your word, I walk. Ray quit two elite positions over handshake violations. Both times, everyone said he was finished. Both times, it made his career. How you respond to betrayal IS your reputation.
Reputation is your only appreciating asset. Barns depreciate. Genetics become outdated. Trust compounds. Ray built three generations on that math.
Bad markets build lifetime loyalty. Ray bought consignors’ cattle when nobody else would bid. Those soft-market decisions created forty years of trust. The relationships you protect now will protect you later.
Ego kills succession. Ray returned at 41 without demanding control. One non-negotiable (the new barn), then he stepped back. Three generations later: still in business. How many competitors can say that?

Sources & Acknowledgments

This profile draws from an interview with Ray Brubacher conducted by Doug Blair and published in Legends of the Cattle Breeding Business: In Their Own Words by Doug Blair and Ronald Eustice and The Holstein History by E.Y. Morwick. Ray’s voice, stories, and personal reflections are preserved through their invaluable documentation of holstein history. Additional historical context drawn from Ray Brubacher’s 1992 interview published in Holstein-Friesian World by Miles McCarry, industry sales records, Brubacher Bros. Limited historical documentation, USDA dairy operation statistics, and contemporary dairy market analysis (2025-2026).

For readers interested in the complete interviews and stories from Ray Brubacher and other industry legends, we recommend Legends of the Cattle Breeding Business: In Their Own Words by Doug Blair and Ronald Eustice—an essential resource for understanding the people who built the Holstein breed we know today.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Breeder Profiles

Tags : Breeding Strategy, Dairy Farm Management, Holstein breeding, Lakeside Farm dispersal, livestock auction business, Ray Brubacher

Editor’s Choice 2025: 10 Articles Your Competitors Already Read Twice

Wednesday, December 31st, 2025

Every breeding decision you’ll make next year connects to lessons buried in this year’s best journalism. A $260,000 gamble from 1926 that critics called insanity. A bankruptcy that produced three generations of World Dairy Expo champions. A bull whose daughters added $6,500 per head in today’s dollars, while his modern genomic evaluation shows negative Net Merit—a $2,117 swing from December 2025’s top bull. These aren’t just stories – they’re the strategic frameworks top breeders reference when everyone else is guessing.

Look, we published over 300 feature articles this year. Breeder profiles, sire spotlights, donor stories, industry investigations. When our editorial team sat down to identify which ones actually mattered—not which got the most clicks, but which ones readers bookmarked, shared with their herd managers, or referenced in breeding meetings—ten articles kept coming up.

These pieces combined a strong readership with lasting impact. Our Elevation story generated over 340 comments and was shared more than 2,800 times across platforms. The Blackrose piece prompted eight separate emails from readers who’d reconsidered their approach to dispersal auctions. The “Death of Get Big” article? At least a dozen producers told us they’d shared it with their lenders.

That’s the standard we used. Months after publication, readers were still emailing about these stories, arguing about them, applying them.

If you’re planning your 2026 breeding strategy, reviewing dispersal auction opportunities, or just trying to understand why certain genetic decisions matter more than others, these articles deserve your attention. Your competitors have probably already read them twice.

Four Bets, Five Legends: The Holstein Visionaries Who Built Everything You’re Breeding Today

Here’s the thing about Holstein history—most of us think we know it. We can name the big bulls, recite a few famous prefixes. But this article did something different. It traced four distinct breeding philosophies through five legendary figures and showed how each remains valid today.

Take T.B. Macaulay’s gamble on Johanna Rag Apple Pabst in 1926. According to Bank of Canada inflation calculations, that $15,000 purchase represents roughly $260,000 in today’s dollars—for one animal, in a post-WWI economy when farmers were still digging out from agricultural depression. The critics thought he’d lost his mind.

And here’s what makes this relevant to your operation right now: Holstein Canada pedigree records confirm that virtually every registered Holstein walking the planet today carries that bull’s blood.

Why Macaulay’s Math Still Works

What made Macaulay different? He came from actuarial science, not cattle breeding. He was doing progeny testing—evaluating bulls by their daughters’ actual performance—decades before Holstein Association formalized the practice in the 1930s. The man treated genetic improvement like a math problem while everyone else bred on gut instinct and show-ring appearance.

The article pairs Macaulay’s data-driven approach against Stephen Roman’s empire-building through marketing muscle, Roy Ormiston’s patient cow-family development, and Heffering and Trevena’s paradigm-shifting partnership at Hanover Hill.

The question worth asking yourself: Are you breeding like Macaulay (data-first), Roman (marketing-first), Ormiston (cow-family-first), or some combination? Your answer shapes every semen purchase you’ll make in 2026. Knowing your bias reveals your blind spots.

Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation: The Bull That Changed Everything

You can’t have a serious conversation about Holstein breeding without talking about Elevation. But this article went beyond the usual tribute piece—it interrogated his legacy while respecting it. That tension is exactly what makes it Editor’s Choice material.

Born in 1965 on a modest Virginia farm from what the article calls “a questionable mating,” this unassuming black-and-white calf became the most significant genetic influencer Holstein breeding has ever seen. His bloodline now runs through nearly 9 million descendants. Almost every glass of milk you’ve ever enjoyed likely came from a cow with some connection to this sire.

His numbers were off the charts for the era: daughters averaging 29,500 pounds of milk during their first lactations—beating their peers by 15%—while sporting picture-perfect udders described by Charlie Will of Select Sires as having “high and wide rear udders with exceptional shape and symmetry”.

Here’s where it gets interesting for your bottom line. Those udders stayed attached for 2-3 lactations longer than average, translating into an extra $1,200 in profit per cow in 1970s dollars. Adjusted for inflation, that’s roughly $6,500 per cow today—the difference between a profitable and breakeven herd on longevity alone.

The Paradox Every Breeder Should Understand

What sets this piece apart is how it handles the tension between Elevation’s historical importance and his modern genomic evaluation. His current CDCB summary shows a Net Merit of -$821. Compare that to December 2025’s #1 Net Merit bull, Genosource Retrospect-ET, sitting at +$1,296 NM. That’s a $2,117 swing—representing six decades of genetic progress built on Elevation’s foundation.

That seems damning until you understand—as the article carefully explains—that these numbers compare him to a modern Holstein population he helped create. As Will put it: “Elevation’s genes form the baseline against which we measure progress—you can’t delete the foundation of a skyscraper and expect it to stand”.

Six decades after his birth, his DNA still runs through 14.5% of active proven Holstein sires. Understanding why matters when your genetics rep is pushing the latest trendy lineup. Foundation sires created the genetic architecture you’re building on. Ignoring that context leads to concentration mistakes.

READER ACTION: Before your next mating batch, review CDCB’s relationship tools to understand how heavily your current herd relies on Elevation and Chief genetics. Concentration you don’t see is concentration you can’t manage.

When Financial Disaster Breeds Genetic Gold: The Blackrose Story

This is the kind of story conventional dairy media won’t touch—financial ruin, bankruptcy, bull calves sent to slaughter just to keep the electricity on. But it’s also a story about vision, opportunity recognition, and the staying power of superior genetics.

Picture it: mid-80s, brutal January morning. Jack Stookey—once a larger-than-life figure who owned some of North America’s most elite cattle—can’t scrape together payroll. Decades of careful breeding sitting in legal limbo. And Louis Prange looks at that situation and sees a buying opportunity where everyone else sees disaster.

Prange worked out a deal with the bankruptcy trustee: lease the best cows, flush embryos, split proceeds three ways. His vision was what breeders call a “corrective cross”—mating two animals whose strengths perfectly complement each other’s weaknesses. He wanted to breed the red-and-white champion Nandette TT Speckle to To-Mar Blackstar, a production powerhouse who needed help on the structural side.

On March 24, 1990, Stookey Elm Park Blackrose came into this world.

From $4,500 Purchase to Dynasty

Sold as an 18-month-old for $4,500—about $10,400 in today’s money—she grew into a commanding presence that dominated wherever she went. Her numbers: 42,229 pounds of milk at five years old, 4.6% butterfat, 3.4% protein, EX-96 classification. She won All-American honors as both a junior two-year-old and a junior three-year-old, then captured the Grand Champion title at the Royal Winter Fair in 1995, joining an exclusive club of U.S. cows to win Canada’s most prestigious show.

But what really earns this story Editor’s Choice status is tracing Blackrose’s influence forward. Her descendants include Lavender Ruby Redrose-Red, who in 2005 became the first and only Red & White cow ever named Supreme Champion over all breeds at World Dairy Expo. And Ladyrose Caught Your Eye—a Unix daughter born in 2019 who’s won World Dairy Expo three consecutive years (2021-2023) with 16 milking daughters classified VG-87 or higher.

Financial disaster. Genetic gold. Same story, same cow family. If you’re not looking at dispersal auctions and bankruptcy sales as potential genetic opportunities, this article might change your mind.

READER ACTION: Before your next dispersal auction, ask: what second-chance genetics might be available that well-funded operations are overlooking? The Blackrose story suggests financial distress creates buying opportunities—if you know what you’re looking for.

When Giants Fall Silent: The Shore Dynasty’s Century of Excellence

“Have you ever gotten one of those calls that just stops you cold? Mine came the day after Christmas, 2013. Hardy Shore Jr. was gone.”

That opening line sets the tone for something different—not just a breeder profile, but a meditation on legacy, creative genius, and the personal costs of relentless pursuit of excellence.

The Shore story spans four generations, from William H. Shore’s leap into purebreds in 1910 (when most thought he’d lost his mind) to Hardy Jr.’s embryo exports in the genomic era. It’s a century of dairy evolution through one family’s decisions.

Why This History Matters Right Now

What really struck me, rereading this article, is how it mirrors challenges producers face today. Consider William’s decision to buy those first purebred Holsteins from Herman Bollert when mixed farming was safe, predictable, and profitable. Sound familiar? How many of us are weighing similar pivots right now with robotic milking systems, precision nutrition protocols, or carbon-neutral initiatives?

The genetic throughline is extraordinary. Follow it from Hardy Sr.’s twin bulls Rockwood Rag Apple Romulus and Remus, through Shore Royal Duke, to Fairlea Royal Mark—described as “possibly the best bull to come out of Western Ontario”—and you’ll find it leads directly to Braedale Goldwyn. Breeding decisions made in the 1940s shaped the breed through to the 2000s and beyond.

The article doesn’t shy away from Hardy Jr.’s personal struggles either. “The same creative fire that produced breakthrough genetics also fueled personal demons that few understood”. The industry’s response—celebrating his contributions while acknowledging his difficulties—showed the best of our community.

That’s nuanced, human storytelling. The dairy industry deserves more of it.

The $4,300 Gamble That Reshaped Global Dairy: The Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief Story

If Elevation changed everything, Chief changed it alongside him. According to CDCB data cited in this article, up to 99% of AI bulls born after 2010 can be traced back to either Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation or Pawnee Farm Arlinda Chief. That’s not influence—that’s near-total genetic dominance of the modern Holstein population.

This piece opens with a pregnant cow traveling 1,152 miles by train from Nebraska to California in 1962, then traces how her calf would revolutionize milk production worldwide. Chief contributed nearly 15% to the entire Holstein genome—a level of genetic concentration unprecedented in livestock breeding.

The Question That Makes This Essential Reading

What earns this story Editor’s Choice status isn’t just the historical account—though that’s compelling. It’s the article’s willingness to honestly interrogate the legacy.

Chief transmitted tremendous production, yes. But he also passed along udder conformation challenges that breeders spent decades managing. The piece asks a provocative question: would Chief still have become the most influential Holstein sire in history if today’s genomic tools had been available? Would we have managed his genetics differently if we’d known what we know now from the start?

That’s not second-guessing history. That’s learning from it. And it’s exactly the kind of uncomfortable question we exist to ask.

READER ACTION: Run your herd through CDCB’s haplotype and relationship tools. Understanding your concentration on foundation sires like Chief helps you make smarter outcross decisions—and avoid repeating mistakes the breed made when we couldn’t see what we were building.

Death of ‘Get Big or Get Out’: Why Tech-Savvy 500-Cow Dairies Are Outperforming Mega-Farms

For years, the industry’s biggest voices told mid-size dairies to expand or exit. This article asked: what if that conventional wisdom was incomplete—and what if the data revealed something more nuanced?

Every decade has its orthodoxy. For the past fifty years, dairy’s orthodoxy has been scale. This piece challenged it directly, examining how mid-size operations leveraging precision technology achieve profitability metrics that compete with operations several times their size in specific market conditions.

Now, to be clear: scale advantages are real. Recent USDA data shows larger operations generally achieve lower per-unit costs, and the correlation between size and overall profitability remains strong in aggregate. The article didn’t dispute that.

What the Article Actually Found

What it documented was more specific: certain 500-cow operations in the Upper Midwest using robotic milking, precision feeding, and intensive management protocols were achieving component yields and margin-per-cwt figures that challenged the assumption that they were simply waiting to be consolidated out of existence.

The key variable wasn’t size—it was technology adoption intensity and management focus. Operations that couldn’t compete on scale were competing on precision.

That’s a different argument than “small is better.” It’s an argument that technology can substitute for some—not all—of the scale advantages when management intensity matches the investment.

The response from readers was telling. At least a dozen producers emailed us about sharing this article with their lenders when justifying technology investments over expansion. One Wisconsin producer credited the piece with helping secure $180,000 in automation financing instead of a $2.4M expansion loan that would have stretched his operation thin.

If you’re running a mid-size operation and feeling pressure to “grow or go,” this article offers a more nuanced framework for evaluating your options.

The Human Stories: Hearts, Tragedy, and Triumph

Not every Editor’s Choice selection centers on breeding decisions and production records. Two articles this year reminded us why the human element matters—and earned their place through reader impact rather than genetic analysis.

Hearts of the Heartland

This Youth Profile documented young dairy farm girls battling extraordinary health challenges while their families remained committed to dairying. What struck readers wasn’t just the adversity—it was the community response. The article traced how neighboring operations stepped in during medical crises, how 4-H networks mobilized support, and how the fabric of rural dairy communities showed its strength when tested.

The piece generated more reader emails than any other youth profile we’ve published. Several readers mentioned sharing it with family members who questioned why they stayed in dairy when the economics got tough. It captured something data can’t measure—the emotional core of agricultural life, the values that keep operations running when spreadsheets say they shouldn’t.

From Tragedy to Triumph: Nico Bons

This profile showed how setbacks can catalyze the kind of focused intensity that produces greatness. Bons’s trajectory—tragedy, rebuilding, excellence—provided both inspiration and a practical framework for breeders facing their own obstacles.

The article documented specific decisions Bons made during his lowest points that positioned him for later success: doubling down on cow families he believed in when others suggested selling, maintaining classification standards when cutting corners would have been easier, and building relationships that paid dividends years later.

For anyone dealing with challenges right now—and honestly, between labor pressures, feed costs, and processor consolidation, who isn’t?—this piece offers more than motivation. It offers a model.

The Holstein Genetics War: What Every Producer Needs to Know

Some topics require going beyond surface-level reporting. The competing visions for Holstein breeding’s direction—the economic forces, policy implications, and philosophical tensions shaping the breed’s future—demanded exactly that treatment.

This article examined the battle lines between different approaches to genetic improvement: index-driven selection versus holistic breeding programs; concentration of elite genetics versus diversity; and short-term gains versus long-term sustainability. It named the tensions other publications dance around—including specific industry voices pushing concentration and the researchers warning against it.

Whether you’re navigating US component pricing shifts, EU Green Deal compliance costs, Canadian quota considerations, or NZ emissions regulations, the strategic questions this article raises apply across markets. The breed’s direction isn’t being set in a vacuum. Policy, economics, and genetic decisions interact in ways this piece helped readers understand.

The article generated exactly the kind of productive disagreement we aim for—readers with strong opinions engaging substantively rather than nodding along. When industry professionals argue thoughtfully about something we’ve written, that tells us we hit a nerve worth hitting.

If your genetics rep is pushing hard for one approach, this article gives you a framework for asking better questions and evaluating whether their recommendations align with your operation’s long-term interests.

The Controversial Canadian System That Could Save American Dairy

Trade policy isn’t sexy. We made it essential reading anyway.

By connecting Canada’s supply management debate to real-world implications for American producers, this article transformed dry policy discussion into a story about survival, fairness, and the future of family farming. It examined the evidence honestly—acknowledging both legitimate criticisms of supply management and the genuine problems it addresses that free-market systems struggle with.

The response was polarized. Some readers sent passionate disagreements, arguing that any government intervention distorts markets and punishes efficiency. Others thanked us for finally explaining a system they’d heard criticized but never understood—and pointed to the stability Canadian producers enjoy while American operations ride brutal price cycles.

Both responses tell us the same thing: this was journalism that mattered to people trying to understand their competitive environment.

Whether you think Canadian dairy policy is a model worth studying or a cautionary tale about protectionism, understanding how it actually works—rather than relying on political talking points from either side—makes you a better-informed decision maker.

Articles That Almost Made the List

A few pieces came close and deserve mention for readers looking to go deeper:

Bell’s Paradox: The Worst Best Bull in Holstein History examined a bull who excelled in production traits while transmitting significant type faults—challenging comfortable assumptions about what “best” even means in genetic evaluation. Strong engagement, genuine controversy, but slightly narrower application than our final selections.

The Robot Truth: 86% Satisfaction, 28% Profitability—Who’s Really Winning? found that robotic milking adopters reported high satisfaction rates, but far fewer achieved projected profitability targets within expected timeframes. If you’re considering automation investments, add this to your reading list before signing anything.

The Silent Genetic Squeeze documented inbreeding coefficients in the Holstein population rising steadily over recent decades, with specific data on haplotype frequency changes that affect fertility and calf survival. Important reading for anyone concerned about where genomic selection’s concentration is taking the breed.

The Bottom Line: Your 2026 Reading List

Looking at this collection, patterns emerge. We gravitate toward stories that challenge assumptions rather than reinforce them, connect historical decisions to present-day implications, humanize the industry without losing analytical rigor, and tackle uncomfortable topics when the evidence demands it.

You can read publications that confirm what you already believe, or you can read the ones that make you uncomfortable enough to improve. These ten articles fall in the second category. That’s why they earned Editor’s Choice.

The conversations these articles started aren’t finished. Genomic selection keeps evolving—as the December 2025 proofs showed, with Genosource capturing 22 of the top 30 Net Merit positions and reshaping the competitive landscape overnight. The tension between consolidation and resilience intensifies. Component pricing shifts and processor relationships tighten. And the human stories—the triumphs, the setbacks, the stubborn persistence of people who believe in this industry—keep unfolding.

We’ll be here to cover them. Starting in January with our deep-dive into what the December 2025 proof run means for your spring matings—and why three bulls everyone’s talking about might not deserve the hype.

With data. With nuance. And with the same commitment to making you think rather than just nod along.

That’s what these ten articles delivered in 2025. That’s what we’re aiming for in 2026.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

‘We published 300 articles in 2025—these ten are the ones readers bookmarked, argued about, and shared with lenders and genetics reps months later. Inside: the $260,000 gamble that put one bull’s blood in every registered Holstein alive today, a bankruptcy that spawned three consecutive World Dairy Expo champions, and data showing tech-savvy 500-cow dairies beating mega-farms on margin-per-cwt. You’ll find Elevation’s $6,500/cow longevity advantage explained against his -$821 Net Merit—a $2,117 swing from today’s #1 bull representing sixty years of progress built on his foundation. Each piece delivers actionable breeding frameworks for 2026, not just history. One Wisconsin producer used our scale article to secure $180,000 in automation financing instead of a $2.4M expansion loan. Your competitors already read these twice—have you?

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : The Bullvine

Tags : Breeding Strategy, Dairy Farming, dairy genetics, dairy profitability, genetic progress, Genomic Testing, herd management

The Butterfat Reckoning: $337 Million Lost in 90 Days – And Your Herd’s Best Trait May Be Next

Thursday, December 25th, 2025

You bred for butterfat. You won. Now $337M is gone in 90 days—and processors want less of what made your herd profitable. The math changed. Did anyone tell you?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: U.S. dairy farmers lost $337 million in 90 days under new FMMO rules—and the genetics they spent a decade perfecting are now working against them. Butterfat climbed 13% since 2015, but protein didn’t keep pace: the average protein-to-fat ratio is 0.77, well below the 0.85-0.90 range processors need for efficient cheesemaking. Some plants have restructured contracts, paying reduced premiums for butterfat above threshold levels, while AFBF analysis shows Class price cuts of 85-93 cents per hundredweight. Canadian producers face parallel pressure—Western provinces shift from 85% butterfat pricing to 70% in April 2026. The playbook for 2026: get your contract terms in writing this week, calculate your herd’s ratio today, and select genetics for component balance rather than butterfat alone. The producers navigating this best understood their contracts before the rules changed.

When a 550-cow operator in east-central Wisconsin reviews his numbers these days, the economics look different than they did a few years back. His herd tests 4.58% butterfat—a genetic achievement that would have earned solid premium dollars not long ago. Today, his processor’s payment structure means production above a certain threshold earns reduced premiums.

“We did exactly what we were told to do for years,” he explained in a conversation for this article, asking that his name be withheld due to ongoing contract negotiations. “Now I’ve got daughters in the milking string from bulls I selected back in 2019, and I can’t change that overnight.”

He isn’t alone in this. Not by a long shot. For the past decade, U.S. dairy farmers responded to clear market signals. They bred for butterfat. They optimized rations for components. They invested in genetics that pushed Holstein herds from 3.75% butterfat in 2015 to 4.24% by 2024—a 13% increase in just ten years, according to USDA milk production data and Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding records. The CoBank Knowledge Exchange reported in September 2025 that this growth rate is roughly six times faster than that of the European Union or New Zealand over the same period.

Now, producers across the country are navigating a market where some of those premium structures are changing. Certain processors have adjusted how they value components above certain thresholds. Export markets that absorbed excess butterfat face trade policy questions. The situation keeps evolving, and thoughtful producers are adapting their strategies accordingly.

This isn’t a story about mistakes—farmers or otherwise. It’s a story about how pricing signals, genetic acceleration, and processor economics can create dynamics that shift over time. Understanding these forces helps us make better decisions going forward.

The Logic Behind Butterfat Focus

To understand the current landscape, it helps to revisit the reasoning that drove butterfat optimization. And honestly? The logic was sound based on the information and incentives available at the time.

Back in 2013, butterfat accounted for about 32% of the Class III milk price, according to Federal Milk Marketing Order data. By 2015, that figure had climbed above 50%. Then by July 2017—and those of you watching milk checks closely will remember this—butterfat was trading at $2.95 per pound while protein sat at $1.22. Nearly a 2.4:1 premium for fat over protein. Progressive Dairy documented this shift extensively, and it naturally influenced breeding priorities across the industry.

The genetic selection tools aligned with these market signals. Leadership at the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding has explained that Net Merit$ weightings reflect what the market signals to producers—in this case, more fat and more components. The pricing system was essentially communicating: we value more butterfat.

The farm-level economics were compelling. According to analysis from June 2025, producing one pound of strategic butterfat over the past decade generated an average of $2.54 in gross income while requiring only about 52 cents in nutrient costs—a marginal net return of roughly $2.02 per pound. With numbers like that, breeding for fat made clear economic sense.

Key factors driving butterfat selection from 2014 to 2020:

Federal Milk Marketing Order pricing that rewarded components
Consumer demand is shifting toward butter, whole milk, and premium cheese
Genomic testing (available since 2009) enabling rapid genetic acceleration
Net Merit$ index weighting butterfat at historic highs
COVID-era quota systems that encouraged component density over volume

Genomic testing particularly accelerated the pace of change. Before 2009, genetic progress moved more gradually—farmers waited years for bull daughters to prove a sire’s value. After genomic testing became available, breeders could predict about 70% of a young bull’s genetic potential immediately, deploying high-butterfat genetics across the national herd within a few breeding cycles.

The April 2025 genetic base change illustrates this progress pretty clearly. Butterfat shifted by 45 pounds for Holsteins—an 87.5% larger adjustment than the 24-pound change in 2020, according to CDCB. That represents the fastest butterfat genetic gain in Holstein breed history.

Kevin Jorgensen, senior Holstein sire analyst at Select Sires, noted the continuing trajectory in January 2025: “Absolutely, we’re going to see additional gains. The emphasis placed upon this is not waning.”

So the genetics kept pushing forward even as some market dynamics began shifting underneath.

Understanding the Processor Side

This is where things get technical, but stick with me—it’s worth understanding because it explains what’s driving some of these contract changes.

Cheesemakers generally achieve better efficiency with milk at a protein-to-fat ratio roughly in the mid-0.80s to 0.90 range, though this varies somewhat by cheese type. At ratios in that range, fat and protein transfer into the cheese curd efficiently, waste is minimized, and yields are optimized. The American Dairy Products Institute has emphasized that standardizing the fat-to-protein ratio is one of the most important factors in ensuring optimal cheese quality and quantity.

Here’s the challenge. Current U.S. milk averages a ratio of about 0.77—down from the 0.82-0.84 range that held fairly steady from 2000 to 2017. The CoBank Knowledge Exchange reported in September 2025 that butterfat has been growing at roughly twice the pace of protein, which has driven the decline in that ratio. Both Feedstuffs and Hoard’s Dairyman covered this imbalance in their fall 2025 coverage.

Metric	Protein-to-Fat Ratio
Current U.S. Average	0.77
Processor Optimal Range (Low)	0.85
Processor Optimal Range (High)	0.90
Gap from Optimal	-0.08 to -0.13

Research published in Frontiers in Veterinary Science has demonstrated that milk composition significantly affects cheese-making efficiency, with the protein-to-fat ratio playing a central role in determining both fresh and ripened cheese yields. When milk composition deviates from optimal ranges, processors can experience reductions in cheese output and higher nutrient losses in the whey stream.

Why does this matter to farmers? Because processors have costs they need to manage, and those costs ultimately affect what they can pay for milk.

Common processor approaches to managing composition:

Cream removal: Separating excess butterfat before cheesemaking, then selling that cream separately—sometimes at different margins than cheese
Protein fortification: Adding nonfat dry milk, condensed skim, or ultrafiltered milk to rebalance the ratio before processing
Ultrafiltration investment: Installing membrane technology to concentrate proteins and adjust composition

Each approach involves expense. From the processor’s perspective, they’re managing milk composition to optimize their operations. Understanding this helps explain why some contract structures are evolving.

What Farmers Are Experiencing

The picture became clearer for many producers in late 2025 when component premiums stopped scaling as they had previously. Reports from multiple regions indicate that some processors have introduced payment structures where the incremental value of butterfat above certain thresholds is reduced. While individual levels vary by contract, producers in several areas report that additional butterfat above their processor’s preferred range no longer receives full premiums.

In October 2025, cheese processors reported milk is too high in fat relative to milk protein. Some cheese plants were essentially saying, “Don’t send me more butterfat.” By December, industry analysis indicated that premiums for higher butterfat had diminished for production above certain thresholds. What we saw is, the milk check, it got way too heavy in components.

To illustrate how this might affect an operation:

For a 600-cow herd shipping about 13.8 million pounds of milk annually at 4.6% fat, if the payment structure recognized full premiums only up to a certain point—say around 4.5%—the 0.1-point difference would represent roughly 13,800 pounds of butterfat that might earn a reduced premium. At even $0.50 per pound reduction in premium value, that’s approximately $6,900 in foregone annual income—or roughly $11.50 per cow per year left on the table. The actual impact varies considerably by contract, but the math helps illustrate why this matters.

One aspect that keeps coming up in conversations is that these details weren’t always clearly communicated upfront. A central Wisconsin producer described his experience: “I had to sit down with three months of milk checks and back-calculate before I understood what was happening. Nobody had really walked me through how the payment structure worked at higher test levels.”

I heard something similar from a California producer in the San Joaquin Valley who’s been running the same analysis. “We’re at 4.4% fat and thought we were in good shape,” he shared. “Then I realized our processor changed how they calculate premiums above 4.2%. Different market out here, but same basic dynamic.”

This points to an opportunity—and one of the most practical recommendations we can make: understanding your specific contract terms in detail.

How Other Regions Approached Component Growth

An interesting comparison emerges when we look at how other major dairy regions experienced this same period. Why did European and New Zealand farmers see different outcomes?

The differences trace back to structural factors rather than farmer decision-making.

Breed composition plays a significant role. The U.S. dairy herd is predominantly Holstein—a single breed that responded uniformly to genomic selection pressure. When U.S. farmers bred for butterfat, the national herd moved in that direction together. New Zealand’s herd is about 60% Holstein-Friesian/Jersey crossbreeds—the “KiwiCross”—with the remainder split among various breeds. The EU has significant breed diversity across countries. Different breed mixes respond differently to selection pressure.

Jersey crosses naturally produce higher protein-to-fat ratios. When New Zealand farmers selected for components, they achieved more balanced improvements in both fat and protein.

Pricing structures created different incentives. U.S. Federal Milk Marketing Orders explicitly reward individual components—which is why U.S. farmers responded so directly to component signals. EU milk pricing is largely based on intervention prices for butter and skim milk powder rather than on component premiums paid directly to farmers, according to the European Commission DG AGRI Dashboard. Different incentive structures led to different breeding emphases.

Here’s how the numbers compare:

Region	Butterfat 2015	Butterfat 2024	10-Year Change
U.S.	3.75%	4.24%	+13.0%
EU	4.03%	4.13%	+2.5%
New Zealand	5.02%	5.14%	+2.4%

Source: CoBank Knowledge Exchange analysis (September 2025) reporting actual 2024 calendar year data; CLAL international dairy statistics

New Zealand already had higher butterfat than the U.S. Their breeding programs emphasized maintaining ratio balance while improving overall efficiency. Neither approach is inherently superior—they reflect different market structures and breeding objectives. But understanding these differences helps contextualize the U.S. experience.

But the international comparison isn’t just academic—because those other regions are also our customers.

The Export Market Factor

During early to mid-2025, U.S. butterfat exports frequently ran more than 140% above year-earlier levels, with some months nearly tripling prior-year volumes, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data. Brownfield Ag News reported in November 2025 that butterfat exports to Canada alone were up 73%, with butter exports climbing 190%.

That export growth absorbed domestic production and supported prices. But it also created dependencies worth monitoring.

Current export market concentration:

Mexico: More than 25% of all U.S. dairy exports—our largest and most consistent customer. CoBank’s December 2024 analysis noted that Mexico’s share of U.S. dairy product exports had grown to about 29% by late 2024.
Canada: Second-largest market by value at $1.14 billion in 2024
China: A key market for whey and specialty products, though exports have declined since 2022

Export Market	Share of U.S. Dairy Exports	2026 Trade Risk
Mexico	~29%	USMCA renegotiation
Canada	~18%	Supply management tensions
China	~12%	Trade policy uncertainty
Other Markets	~41%	Mixed/regional

These three markets account for a substantial share of U.S. dairy export volume. All three face some degree of trade policy uncertainty heading into 2026, with USMCA renegotiation on the calendar and China trade dynamics continuing to evolve.

The American Farm Bureau Federation has described the U.S. dairy’s trade outlook as requiring careful navigation. CoBank’s lead dairy economist, Corey Geiger, has emphasized in multiple analyses that trade relationships—particularly with Mexico—are increasingly important to domestic market stability and that disruptions could pose significant challenges.

For producers focused primarily on their milk checks, trade policy can seem distant. But export market access affects domestic supply-demand balances, which ultimately influences what processors can pay.

What Canadian Producers Should Know

For our Canadian readers, the dynamics play out differently under supply management—but the underlying tension between fat and protein is creating similar conversations north of the border.

Canada’s Western Milk Pool is making a significant shift. The BC Milk Marketing Board announced in October 2025 that, effective April 1, 2026, Western Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) will change their component pricing allocation from 85% butterfat / 10% protein / 5% other solids to 70% butterfat / 25% protein / 5% other solids. That’s a major rebalancing—protein’s share of producer payments will more than double.

Component	Current (Pre-April 2026)	New (April 1, 2026)	Change
Butterfat	85%	70%	-15 pts
Protein	10%	25%	+15 pts
Other Solids	5%	5%	—

The signal is clear: even in a quota system that’s historically emphasized butterfat, there’s growing recognition that protein deserves more weight in producer payments. Canadian producers selecting genetics today should factor this shift into their breeding decisions. The April 2025 Canadian genetic evaluations highlighted sires like FRAHOLME VEC TRITON-PP, ranking 30th on GLPI with +940 kg Milk, +105 kg Fat, and +63 kg Protein—the kind of balanced production profile that may become increasingly valuable under the new payment structure.

Practical Approaches Farmers Are Taking

Producers who recognized these dynamics early have been adapting their strategies. Their approaches offer useful frameworks to consider—whether you’re running a 200-cow family operation in Vermont, a 2,000-cow dairy in the Central Valley, or something in between. Specific processor options and contract structures vary by location, but the underlying principles apply broadly.

Contract clarity has become a priority. The question on a lot of minds right now: “At what point does my component premium structure change, and how?” Getting this in writing enables informed decision-making about ration and genetic investments.

An eastern Wisconsin producer described his experience after getting clearer on his contract terms in fall 2025: “Once I understood exactly how the payment structure worked at different test levels, I could actually plan around it. Before that, I was working with incomplete information.”

Ration adjustments are becoming more common. Nutritionists report increased interest in shifting from maximum-butterfat rations toward balanced-component approaches. Typical adjustments include:

Reducing rumen-protected fat supplementation from 1.5% to 0.5% of dry matter
Increasing alfalfa hay/haylage proportion for protein support
Adding rumen-protected amino acids (lysine, methionine) to maintain protein while moderating fat

University of Minnesota dairy nutrition work led by Isaac Salfer, assistant professor of dairy nutrition, suggests that in many herds, component changes begin to show within roughly 4-6 weeks of a ration adjustment, with new steady-state levels often reached by 8-12 weeks—though actual timelines can vary by herd and ration specifics. These aren’t overnight changes, but they’re not multi-year horizons either.

Exploring processor options makes sense. Farmers with competitive alternatives are obtaining quotes from multiple processors before contract renewals. Even without switching, documented alternatives provide useful context for conversations with current partners.
Revenue diversification continues expanding. The beef-on-dairy approach has gained significant traction, with Holstein/Angus and Jersey/Angus cross calves commanding premium prices at weaning, according to recent USDA livestock market reports. Breeding a portion of the herd to beef genetics generates meaningful calf revenue—diversification that reduces dependence on any single revenue stream. Several producers I’ve spoken with describe this as one of their more impactful recent decisions.
Genetic planning is evolving. While existing genetics represent previous decisions—those daughters are already producing—future breeding choices can emphasize a balance between protein and fat alongside other traits. Sire catalogs still feature many high-butterfat genetics. Dairy Global reported in January 2025 that among the top 100 Holstein sires, only six were negative for the fat test. But balanced-ratio options exist. The April 2025 evaluations identified sires showing strong component balance—bulls transmitting positive deviations for both fat percentage and protein percentage, rather than fat alone. When reviewing sire summaries, look beyond total pounds to the percentage deviations and the fat-to-protein relationship in the proof.

What’s Likely to Change

Now, I know federal order math isn’t anyone’s favorite topic, but the numbers here matter because they’re already hitting milk checks.

The 2025 FMMO reform isn’t just a policy update—it’s a fundamental reset of the American milk check. After a record 49-day national hearing that concluded in January 2024, USDA released its final decision on November 12, 2024. Producers in all 11 federal orders voted to approve the changes, and the new pricing formulas took effect June 1, 2025, according to USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service.

Product Category	Make Allowance Increase (¢/lb)
Cheese	5.0
Butter	5.4
Nonfat Dry Milk	5.9
Dry Whey	6.6

The changes are substantial. Make allowances increased by 5 to 7 cents per pound across cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey—representing a larger share of wholesale value going to processors. Farm Credit East documented the specific increases: cheese up 5 cents, butter up 5.4 cents, nonfat dry milk up 5.9 cents, and dry whey up 6.6 cents per pound.

The financial impact has been significant. Danny Munch, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, told Brownfield Ag News in June 2025 that once you net the negative make allowances against the benefits from updated Class I differentials and the return to the “higher of” Class I mover, dairy farmers still face meaningful losses. By September 2025, AFBF’s detailed analysis showed farmers had lost more than $337 million in combined pool value in just the first three months under the new rules, with Class price reductions ranging from 85 to 93 cents per hundredweight depending on the order.

The composition factor changes—updating baseline assumptions to 3.3% protein, 6% other solids, and 9.3% nonfat solids—took effect December 1, 2025, according to USDA’s final rule. These updated factors finally acknowledge what’s actually in today’s milk rather than formulas designed when milk tested around 3.5-3.6% fat and 3.1% protein.

Between processor payment restructuring and FMMO reform impacts, high-butterfat herds face a potential double squeeze heading into 2026. The producers navigating this best are those who understood their contracts before the rules changed—and who are now positioning their herds for what processors actually need, not what the old incentives rewarded.

Processor consolidation continues. The Arla Foods/DMK Group merger, expected to complete in 2026, will create a cooperative of more than 12,000 member farms processing approximately 19 billion kilograms of milk annually—the largest dairy company in Europe, according to Dairy Reporter’s April 2025 coverage. Similar consolidation dynamics exist in other regions. Larger processors typically have greater standardization capacity and different economics for managing milk composition.

Component evaluation discussions are evolving. CoBank economists suggested in their September 2025 analysis that protein may increasingly drive breeding decisions as market conditions evolve. Industry discussions increasingly focus on developing selection tools that emphasize component ratio balance rather than maximizing individual components—a recognition that what processors need and what the genetic indexes have been rewarding may not always align perfectly.

Industry leaders continue pushing for mandatory processor cost surveys to inform future make allowance discussions. NMPF CEO Jim Mulhern emphasized in October 2025 comments to Brownfield Ag News that ongoing reform is necessary for the federal order system to remain effective. The conversations are happening at every level, from cooperative boardrooms to Capitol Hill.

Your Monday Morning Checklist

Get your contract in writing—this week. Call your processor or co-op field rep and request complete written documentation of how component payments work at different test levels. Don’t accept verbal explanations. You need the actual payment schedule showing where premiums flatten or decline.
Calculate your herd’s protein-to-fat ratio today. Pull your last DHI test or bulk tank analysis. Divide protein percentage by fat percentage. If you’re below 0.80, you’re producing milk that costs your processor money to rebalance. That matters for your next contract conversation.
Review one month of ration costs against component returns. Sit down with your nutritionist this month and calculate the actual ROI on your rumen-protected fat supplementation. At current component values, is that investment still paying?
Get a competitive quote before your next contract renewal. Even if you have no intention of switching processors, having documented alternatives strengthens your position. Make three calls.
Flag three sires in your tank for ratio review. Look at your current AI lineup. For each sire, check whether the fat percentage deviation significantly exceeds the protein percentage deviation. Consider whether that balance still serves your operation’s future.
Set a calendar reminder for trade and policy news. Block 15 minutes monthly to scan USDA export reports and FMMO announcements. What happens in Washington and at the border affects your milk check more than most producers realize.

The Bottom Line

The butterfat gains achieved between 2015 and 2024 represent remarkable genetic progress. U.S. farmers responded effectively to market signals and improved their components, while their global counterparts didn’t. The current situation isn’t about those decisions being wrong—it’s about market conditions evolving and creating opportunities for strategic adjustment.

What producers across the Midwest and beyond are experiencing is a transition period. The signals were real, the decisions were rational, and the current landscape calls for thoughtful adaptation. The opportunity now lies in applying the same analytical approach that drove butterfat gains toward more balanced outcomes: genetics aligned with processor requirements, contracts with clear terms, and diversified revenue that provides flexibility.

The question every producer should be asking their co-op board right now: When did you know component pricing was shifting, and why didn’t you tell us?

“I’m not upset about it,” the east-central Wisconsin producer reflected. “I’m just adjusting. That’s what we do. But I wish somebody had laid out the whole picture five years ago instead of just highlighting the premium check.”

Farmers who recognized these dynamics and began adapting in 2025 will likely view this period as a recalibration rather than a setback. The question for every operation is whether current decisions account for where markets are heading—not just where they’ve been.

Additional Resources

For those interested in exploring these topics further:

Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB): Genetic evaluation tools and Net Merit$ component weightings at uscdcb.com
University of Minnesota Extension Dairy: Research on component management through nutrition at extension.umn.edu/dairy
CoBank Knowledge Exchange: Quarterly dairy economic analyses, including component and trade reports at cobank.com
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service: Federal Order pricing data and component values at ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy

In upcoming coverage, The Bullvine will examine specific breeding strategies for optimizing the protein-to-fat ratio over a five-year genetic plan—including which sire lines are showing promising balance characteristics for evolving market conditions.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

$337 million gone in 90 days — FMMO reforms cut Class prices 85-93¢/cwt. This isn’t projection—it’s already hitting milk checks.
The ratio gap is driving it — U.S. milk averages 0.77 protein-to-fat. Processors need 0.85-0.90. That mismatch explains why contracts are changing.
Premium structures are shifting — Some plants now cap full butterfat premiums at threshold levels. Most producers haven’t seen their actual payment schedule. Have you?
Canada confirms the trend — Western provinces shift from 85% butterfat pricing to 70% in April 2026. Protein’s value is rising on both sides of the border.
Three moves to make this week: (1) Get your contract payment terms in writing. (2) Calculate your herd’s protein-to-fat ratio. (3) Review your sire lineup for component balance.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

Bred for $3 Butterfat, Selling at $2.50: Inside the 5-Year Gap That’s Reshaping Genetic Strategy – Exposes the brutal five-year lag between genetic selection and your bulk tank reality. It delivers a framework to audit your current sire lineup against 2026 pricing, arming you with the tactics to pivot before those daughters ever hit the parlor.
The $4.78 Spread: Why Protein Premiums Won’t Last Past 2027 – Breaks down the historic $4.78 Class III-IV spread and reveals why current protein premiums are a closing 18-month window. It positions your operation for the post-2027 market shift, ensuring you aren’t left chasing yesterday’s high-value component.
The $700 Truth: Your Best Milkers Are Your Worst Investment (And 3,000 Dairies Just Proved It) – Unveils how 3,000 dairies are weaponizing beef-on-dairy premiums to cull their least efficient “high-volume” cows. This strategy delivers a $470-per-cow profitability boost by ruthlessly aligning herd genetics with actual market ROI instead of traditional production vanity.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : Breeding Strategy, butterfat protein ratio, component pricing, dairy profitability, FMMO reform, Holstein genetics

The $97,500 Protein Shift: How Weight-Loss Drug Users Are Rewriting Your Breeding Strategy

Monday, December 22nd, 2025

$97,500. That’s what weight-loss drugs are worth to a 500-cow dairy. Here’s how to capture it.

Executive Summary: $97,500 annually. That’s what a 500-cow dairy can capture by responding to the protein shift—a market realignment most producers haven’t traced to its source. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs have reached 41 million Americans who now consume high-protein dairy at triple the normal rate, reshaping what your milk is worth. Protein premiums have hit $5/cwt at cheese facilities, and December’s Federal Order update raised baseline protein to 3.3%—meaning below-average herds now subsidize neighbors who ship higher components. The opportunity stacks three ways: nutrition optimization ($8,750-$15,000), protein-focused genetics ($17,500-$22,500), and processor premiums ($24,000-$60,000). The catch: breeding decisions this spring won’t reach your bulk tank until 2029, rewarding producers who move early. The math is clear, the window is open, and this analysis shows exactly how to capture it.

A number worth sitting with: households taking GLP-1 weight-loss medications are consuming yogurt at nearly three times the national average. Not 20% more. Not double. Three times.

That data point comes from Mintel’s 2025 consumer tracking. It tells you something important about where dairy demand is heading—and raises questions worth considering if your breeding program has been focused primarily on butterfat.

Something meaningful is shifting in how the market values what comes out of your bulk tank. This isn’t a temporary blip or a pricing anomaly. What we’re seeing appears to be a structural change driven by forces that weren’t on most of our radars even five years ago—pharmaceutical trends, aging demographics, and global nutrition demands all converging at once.

This creates opportunities for producers positioned to respond. It also creates challenges for those caught off guard. The difference often comes down to understanding what’s actually driving these changes.

THE QUICK MATH: What’s This Worth?

For a 500-cow herd positioned to capture the protein shift:

Opportunity	Annual Value
Nutrition optimization (amino acid balancing)	$8,750 – $15,000
Genetic improvement (protein-focused selection)	$17,500 – $22,500
Processor premiums (above-baseline protein)	$24,000 – $60,000
Combined Annual Opportunity	$50,000 – $97,500

These figures assume: 500 cows, 24,000 lbs/cow annually, current component price relationships, and access to a processor paying protein premiums. Individual results vary based on current herd genetics, ration, and market access.

The Pharmaceutical Connection

When GLP-1 drugs first hit the market, I didn’t give much thought to dairy implications. Weight-loss medications seemed pretty far removed from breeding decisions and component pricing.

That thinking needed updating.

As of late 2025, roughly 12% of Americans—about 41 million people—have used GLP-1 medications like Ozempic, Wegovy, or Mounjaro. That figure comes from a KFF poll reported in JAMA in mid-2024, with subsequent tracking by RAND and others confirming the trend has held. Market projections for these drugs range from $157 billion to $324 billion by 2035, depending on which analyst you ask. This isn’t a niche trend anymore. It’s a mainstream pharmaceutical category reshaping eating behavior at a population level.

What makes this relevant to your operation is how these medications change consumption patterns. GLP-1 drugs work by slowing gastric emptying—patients feel full faster and eat much less. But their protein requirements don’t drop. If anything, clinical guidance suggests they increase.

Obesity medicine specialists now recommend GLP-1 users consume 1.2 to 1.6 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight daily—backed by research in the Journal of the International Society of Sports Nutrition and clinical practice guidelines from multiple medical organizations. That’s substantially higher than typical recommendations. The reasoning? Rapid weight loss without adequate protein intake leads to significant muscle wasting.

And this is where it gets clinically important: studies published in peer-reviewed journals indicate that between 25% and 40% of weight lost on these medications can come from lean body mass rather than fat. A 2025 analysis in BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health quantified this at “about 25%–40%” as a proportion of total weight loss. That’s a real concern for patients and their physicians—and it’s driving specific dietary recommendations.

So you have millions of people who can only eat small portions but genuinely need concentrated protein sources. What foods fit that profile?

High-protein dairy fits it remarkably well.

The consumption data supports this. According to Mintel’s tracking, Greek yogurt and cottage cheese consumption has increased significantly among GLP-1 users, while higher-fat dairy categories have moved in the opposite direction. Reports in June 2025 showed that “plain dairy and protein powders hold steady” while “processed goods are taking the biggest hit.” The exact percentages vary by study, but the directional trend is consistent.

There’s also a bioavailability dimension worth understanding. The DIAAS score—Digestible Indispensable Amino Acid Score, the FAO-recommended measurement method—indicates how efficiently the body uses different protein sources. According to research by the International Dairy Federation and the Global Dairy Platform, whole milk powder scores around 1.22 on DIAAS, while other dairy proteins consistently score 1.0 or higher. Compare that to soy at roughly 0.75-0.90, depending on processing, and pea protein at 0.62-0.64. For someone eating limited quantities, that efficiency difference matters considerably.

What does this means practically? This isn’t just a preference shift—there’s a physiological basis driving these patients toward nutrient-dense protein sources. Dairy happens to fit that need particularly well.

Reading Your Milk Check Differently

So consumer preferences are shifting. What does that actually mean for component pricing?

The answer depends partly on your market, but broad trends are worth understanding.

Looking at USDA component price announcements over recent months, protein has traded at a meaningful premium over butterfat. Through late 2025, the protein-to-fat price ratio has been running in the range of 1.3 to 1.4—a notable departure from historical norms. For much of the past two decades, these components traded closer to parity, with fat often commanding a slight premium.

I recently spoke with a Wisconsin producer who’d been closely tracking this shift. “I started paying attention about two years ago,” he told me. “Once I saw the ratio consistently above 1.25, I went back and looked at my sire selection. Realized I’d been leaving money on the table.”

That experience isn’t unusual. Many producers look at their check, review the component breakdowns, and maybe note whether fat or protein prices have changed from last month. But they’re not calculating what the spread actually means for breeding strategy over time.

Let me put some illustrative numbers on it, using late 2025 component price relationships as a guide.

Consider a 500-cow operation producing 24,000 pounds per cow annually. If you compare a fat-focused breeding approach averaging 4.0% fat and 3.1% protein against a protein-focused approach averaging 3.7% fat and 3.4% protein, the difference in total component value can run $35 to $45 per cow annually from the bulk tank alone (these figures shift as component prices move, but the general principle holds when protein maintains its current premium over fat). For that 500-cow herd, you’re looking at roughly $17,500 to $22,500 in annual difference from genetics alone.

That’s before considering processor premiums that cheese and ingredient plants often pay for high-protein milk. Factor those in, and the opportunity can be larger still.

I want to be measured here. I’m not suggesting everyone immediately overhaul their breeding strategy. What I am suggesting is that this ratio deserves more attention than most producers have been giving it.

The Federal Order Update

Another dimension affects how money flows through the pricing system.

The June 2025 updates to Federal Milk Marketing Order formulas—finalized by USDA in January 2025 after the producer referendum—adjusted baseline composition factors to reflect current herd averages. According to the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service final rule, protein moved from 3.1% to 3.3%, other solids from 5.9% to 6.0%, and nonfat solids from 9.0% to 9.3%. The composition factor updates became effective December 1, 2025.

Why does this matter practically? Processors now assume your milk contains 3.3% protein as the baseline. If you’re consistently shipping 3.0% or 3.1%, you’re not just missing premiums—you may be contributing to the pool that pays premiums to higher-component herds.

I’ve spoken with producers who didn’t fully grasp this dynamic at first. They knew their components were “a little below average” but figured it wasn’t significant. When we worked through their position relative to the pool, they were surprised to see how much value was being transferred out of their operation each month.

The system isn’t unfair—it’s designed to reward quality. But you need to understand where you stand within it.

Genetic Strategies Worth Considering

For operations looking to improve protein production, genetic selection offers the most durable path forward. The challenge, as we all know, is that results take time to show up in the bulk tank.

The timeline reality looks something like this:

From Breeding Decision to Bulk Tank Impact

Select high-protein sires (January 2026) → Semen in tank
Breed cows (Spring 2026) → Conception
Gestation (Spring 2026 – Winter 2027) → Calf born
Heifer development (2027 – 2028) → Growing replacement
First calving (Late 2028) → Enters milking string
First full lactation data (2029) → Bulk tank impact measurable

Phase	Timing	Months from Decision
Sire Selection	January 2026	0
Breeding/Conception	Spring 2026	3–6
Gestation	Spring 2026 – Winter 2027	12–15
Heifer Development	2027 – 2028	24–30
First Calving	Late 2028	33–36
Measurable Bulk Tank Impact	2029	36–48

If you breed a cow this spring, her daughter won’t enter the milking string until late 2028 at the earliest. That’s just the biology. So breeding decisions you make in the next few months will shape your herd’s component profile three to five years from now.

Metric	Fat-Focused Strategy	Protein-Focused Strategy
Avg Fat %	4.0%	3.7%
Avg Protein %	3.1%	3.4%
Component Value/Cow/Year	$1,245	$1,290
Processor Premium/Cow/Year	$0	$120
Total Annual Herd Revenue (500 cows)	$622,500	$705,000
Revenue Advantage	—	+$82,500

This is why genetics is a long game—but it’s also the only permanent solution. Nutrition can help capture more of your genetic potential today, but it can’t exceed what the genetics allow.

One development that’s accelerating this timeline for some operations: genomic testing. If you’re testing heifers at a few months of age, you can identify your high-protein genetics earlier and make culling decisions before investing in two years of development costs. It doesn’t change the biological timeline, but it does let you be more selective about which animals you’re developing in the first place.

Selection Index Considerations

Most producers default to Total Performance Index (TPI) when evaluating Holstein sires, and it remains useful for balanced selection. But if protein improvement is a specific priority, Cheese Merit (CM$) rankings warrant closer scrutiny.

Trait Category	Minimum Threshold	Protein-Focused Target	Why It Matters
PTA Protein %	+0.03%	+0.04% to +0.06%	Improves concentration—the key to premiums
PTA Protein Pounds	+40 lbs	+50 lbs or higher	Ensures volume doesn’t drop as % increases
PTA Fat %	No minimum	+0.01% to +0.03%	Hedges against protein premium narrowing
Productive Life (PL)	+2.0	+3.0 or higher	Cows must last long enough to justify investment
Daughter Pregnancy Rate (DPR)	+0.5	+1.0 or higher	Poor fertility destroys genetic progress
Somatic Cell Score (SCS)	2.90 or lower	2.85 or lower	High SCC kills premiums faster than low protein
Inbreeding Coefficient	—	Monitor: keep below 6.25%	Aggressive protein selection can concentrate genes
Selection Index	—	Use CM$ or updated NM$	Better protein weighting than traditional TPI

CM$ places greater emphasis on protein per pound and protein percentage than TPI does. It was designed for operations shipping to cheese plants, where protein drives vat yield. The updated Net Merit (NM$) formula has also adjusted component weightings in recent years to reflect market realities.

General Thresholds to Consider

When evaluating individual sires for protein improvement, what many nutritionists and AI representatives suggest—keeping in mind these are general guidelines, not hard rules:

PTA Protein %: Bulls at +0.04% or higher are generally considered strong for protein concentration. Bulls above +0.06% are moving the needle meaningfully.
PTA Protein Pounds: Targeting +50 lbs or higher helps maintain total protein production while improving percentage.
Combined approach: The ideal sires show positive values in both categories. Bulls that improve percentage by diluting volume aren’t actually helping you.

One important caution: don’t chase protein so aggressively that you sacrifice health and fertility traits. A cow that burns out after 1.8 lactations isn’t profitable regardless of her component profile. Setting minimum thresholds for Productive Life and Daughter Pregnancy Rate before optimizing for components makes sense. Talk with your AI rep about what fits your specific situation.

Intervention Strategy	Low Estimate	High Estimate	Timeline to Impact
Nutrition Optimization (amino acid balancing)	$8,750	$15,000	2–4 weeks
Genetic Improvement (protein-focused sires)	$17,500	$22,500	3–5 years
Processor Premiums (high-protein milk)	$24,000	$60,000	Immediate (if available)
TOTAL ANNUAL OPPORTUNITY	$50,250	$97,500	Varies by strategy

A Note on Inbreeding

Another consideration doesn’t get discussed enough: selecting heavily for narrow trait clusters can accelerate inbreeding. Pennsylvania State University’s Dr. Chad Dechow, who has extensively studied genetic diversity in Holsteins, notes that intense selection for specific traits can accelerate genetic concentration faster than many producers realize—as he’s put it, “if it works, it’s line breeding; if it doesn’t, it’s inbreeding.” Research published in Frontiers in Animal Science found that selection for homozygosity at specific loci (like A2 protein) significantly increased inbreeding both across the genome and regionally. The takeaway: if you’re selecting aggressively for protein traits, monitor inbreeding coefficients and work with your genetic advisor to maintain adequate diversity in your sire lineup.

The Beef-on-Dairy Angle

There’s strategic flexibility that comes with the current beef market. Beef-on-dairy calves have been commanding strong prices—industry reports from late 2025 show day-old beef-cross calves going for $750 to over $1,000 in many markets, with well-bred calves sometimes topping $1,600 depending on genetics and condition. Dairy Herd Management reported in August 2025 that Jersey beef-on-dairy calves were fetching $750 to $900 at day of birth, with the market remaining robust through the fall.

Some producers are using this strategically: breed your top 40-50% of the herd to high-protein dairy sires for replacements, and use beef semen on the bottom half. You capture immediate cash flow from beef calves while concentrating genetic improvement on animals that will actually move the herd forward.

A California producer I spoke with recently has been doing exactly this for three years. “It changed my whole approach to replacement decisions,” she said. “I’m more selective about which genetics I’m actually keeping in the herd, and the beef calves are paying their own way.”

It’s not the right approach for every operation, but it’s worth thinking through.

The Nutrition Bridge

Genetics determine the ceiling for what your cows can produce. Nutrition determines how close you get to that ceiling. And unlike genetics, nutrition interventions can show results within weeks.

The most targeted intervention for protein production involves amino acid supplementation—specifically rumen-protected methionine.

The background: in typical U.S. dairy diets built around corn silage and soybean meal, methionine often becomes the limiting amino acid for milk protein synthesis. You can feed all the crude protein you want, but if the cow runs short on methionine, she can’t efficiently convert it to milk protein. The excess nitrogen gets excreted.

Rumen-protected forms of methionine—coated to survive rumen degradation—allow the amino acid to reach the small intestine, where absorption actually happens.

What the Research Shows

University trials—including work from Cornell, Penn State, and Wisconsin dairy extension programs—have demonstrated that rumen-protected methionine can boost milk protein percentage, often by 0.08% to 0.15% within 2 to 3 weeks of implementation. Results vary by herd and baseline diet, so verifying response on your own operation before committing fully makes sense.

Run a trial with one pen of mid-lactation cows for 21-30 days. Compare their component tests to a control group or their own pre-trial baseline. Work with your nutritionist on the economics—supplement costs, expected response, and whether it pencils at current protein prices. If you’re seeing the expected response, roll it out more broadly. If not, you haven’t invested much to find out.

One thing I’ve noticed, talking with nutritionists across the Midwest and Northeast, is that the response tends to be most consistent in herds that haven’t previously optimized their amino acid balance. If you’ve already been balancing for methionine and lysine, the incremental gain may be smaller. Fresh cows and early-lactation groups often show the most dramatic response, since that’s when protein synthesis is competing most with other metabolic demands during the critical transition period.

For a 500-cow herd seeing a 0.10-0.12% protein increase, that can translate to $8,750 to $15,000 annually in additional component value at current prices—often exceeding the supplement cost by a meaningful margin.

An additional benefit: because you’ve addressed the limiting amino acid, you may be able to reduce total ration crude protein slightly without sacrificing production. That can offset some or all of the supplement cost.

Processor Relationships

This dimension deserves more attention than it typically gets.

Not all processing facilities are equally equipped to capture the value of high-protein milk. Before making significant changes to your breeding program, it’s essential to understand what your buyer can actually afford.

Cheese plants—particularly the large cooperative facilities across Wisconsin’s cheese belt and specialty operations in California’s Central Valley—are generally the most straightforward. Higher protein concentration means more cheese per gallon processed. A plant can increase output without expanding capacity simply by sourcing higher-protein milk. Clear economic incentive exists to pay for it.

Processor Type	Protein Threshold	Premium per CWT	Annual Value (500 cows)
Commodity Powder Plant	No premium	$0.00	$0
Regional Cheese Co-op	3.3%	$0.50–$0.75	$60,000–$90,000
Large Cheese Facility (WI)	3.3%	$1.00–$1.50	$120,000–$180,000
Specialty Protein Plant	3.35%	$2.00–$3.00	$240,000–$360,000
Direct Contract (High-volume)	3.4%	$3.00–$5.00	$360,000–$600,000

Cheese plant managers I’ve spoken with confirm they’re actively seeking higher-protein milk supplies. One plant manager in central Wisconsin told me their facility has increased protein premiums twice in the past eighteen months, specifically to attract higher-component milk. “We’re competing for that milk now,” he said. “Five years ago, we weren’t having that conversation.”

What Premiums Actually Look Like

Processor premiums vary considerably by region and facility, but here’s what the market data shows: USDA Dairy Market News reports the average protein premium is around $1.25 per hundredweight above baseline. Some producers shipping to cheese-focused cooperatives report premiums in the $0.50 to $0.75/cwt range for modest improvements, while direct contracts with protein-hungry facilities can reach $3.00 to $5.00/cwt for milk consistently testing above 3.35% protein—though these premium contracts typically require volume commitments and consistent quality.

For a 500-cow herd producing 120,000 cwt annually, even a $0.50/cwt premium adds $60,000 to the annual milk check. At $1.00/cwt, that’s $120,000. The math quickly draws producers’ attention.

Ingredient and filtration plants making whey protein concentrates, milk protein isolates, and similar products also value protein highly. Operations in Idaho and across the West are specifically tooled to extract and monetize protein fractions. These facilities serve the growing functional nutrition market, including products for GLP-1 users.

Fluid milk bottlers and commodity powder dryers may have less ability to monetize elevated protein. If a bottler standardizing for the Southeast fluid market is already adjusting milk to regulatory specifications, excess protein beyond those specs doesn’t necessarily yield premium returns.

PROCESSOR CONVERSATION CHECKLIST

Download and bring to your next meeting with your milk buyer:

☐ Premium Structure

“What protein threshold triggers premium payments?”
“Is there a cap on protein premiums, or do they scale continuously?”
“How is the premium calculated—per point above threshold, or tiered brackets?”

☐ Testing & Verification

“How frequently is my milk tested for components?”
“Can I access my component test history for the past 12 months?”

☐ Plant Capabilities

“Does your plant have protein standardization capability?”
“What’s your target protein level for incoming milk?”

☐ Market Trends

“Are you seeing increased demand for high-protein products from your customers?”
“Do you anticipate changes to your premium structure in the next 12-24 months?”

☐ Contract Options

“Are direct premium contracts available for consistent high-protein suppliers?”
“What volume and consistency requirements would apply?”

Keep notes from this conversation—the answers should inform your breeding and nutrition decisions.

The answers might influence how aggressively you pursue protein genetics. If your buyer caps premiums at 3.3%, there is less incentive to push for 3.5%. If they’re paying meaningful premiums with no cap because they’re expanding ingredient production, that’s entirely different information.

A Decision Framework

Given this complexity, a framework for thinking through whether an aggressive protein pivot makes sense:

Consider aggressive protein focus if:

You ship to a cheese plant or ingredient facility
Your current herd averages below 3.25% protein
Your buyer explicitly pays protein premiums without caps
You have flexibility in your replacement strategy
Your herd health metrics are already solid

Consider a balanced approach if:

You ship to a fluid bottler or a diversified cooperative
Your herd already averages 3.3%+ protein
Your buyer caps protein premiums at a specific threshold
You’re still working on fertility or longevity genetics
You operate in a region with limited processor options

Consider maintaining the current strategy if:

Your processor has no protein premium structure
Switching buyers isn’t practical for your location
Your herd has significant health or fertility challenges to address first
You’re already at or above pool averages for both components

There’s no single right answer here. The key is matching your genetic strategy to your actual market circumstances.

Your Current Situation	Aggressive Protein Focus	Balanced Approach	Maintain Current Strategy
Processor pays protein premiums?	Yes, uncapped or high cap	Yes, but capped at 3.3–3.4%	No premium structure
Current herd protein average	Below 3.25%	3.25–3.35%	Above 3.35%
Milk buyer type	Cheese/protein plant	Diversified co-op	Fluid bottler/powder plant
Herd health & fertility status	Already solid (DPR >20%)	Some challenges	Significant problems to fix first
Ability to switch processors	Yes, within 50 miles	Limited options	Locked into current contract
Replacement strategy flexibility	Can use beef-on-dairy	Raising most replacements	Must raise 100% replacements
Risk tolerance	Willing to commit 3+ years	Moderate	Conservative
RECOMMENDATION	Go aggressive: aim for 3.4–3.5% protein	Incremental improvement: target 3.3–3.4%	Focus on other profit drivers first

Regional Considerations

This analysis doesn’t apply uniformly across all operations and regions—something worth acknowledging.

Upper Midwest herds shipping to Wisconsin cheese plants are positioned differently than Southeast operations serving fluid markets. A 3,000-cow operation in the San Joaquin Valley faces different economics than a 100-cow farm in Vermont or a grazing dairy in Missouri.

Those shipping to cheese-focused cooperatives in Wisconsin and Minnesota have generally been tracking protein-to-fat ratios more closely—some for several years—and have adjusted breeding programs accordingly. In conversations with producers in these areas, I’ve repeatedly heard that neighbors who were initially skeptical are now asking about sire selections.

But producers in fluid-heavy markets often take a more measured approach. If your buyer can’t pay for high protein, breeding for a premium you can’t capture doesn’t make economic sense. Watching trends while maintaining flexibility is entirely reasonable.

Both perspectives make sense given their circumstances.

The fundamental trends—GLP-1 adoption, component pricing shifts, global protein demand—are real regardless of location. But how you respond depends on your specific situation: current herd genetics, processor relationship, cash flow position, and risk tolerance.

The Global Context: America’s Protein Export Opportunity

What’s happening domestically aligns with broader international patterns—and positions the U.S. dairy industry for a significant strategic shift.

New Zealand’s dairy industry—historically the world’s dominant dairy exporter—has hit production constraints. Environmental regulations capping nitrogen runoff have effectively frozen their national herd. Rather than competing for market share in commodity whole milk powder, they’ve pivoted toward high-value protein products.

According to a 2023 report from DCANZ and Sense Partners, protein products rose from 8.6% to 13.2% of New Zealand’s export mix between 2019 and 2023. DairyNZ reported that protein product exports increased 120% over that period, reaching $3.4 billion. That’s a deliberate strategic shift, not an accident.

Here’s what’s interesting for U.S. producers: we’re no longer just a dairy exporter—we’re increasingly becoming a protein exporter. According to the International Dairy Foods Association, U.S. dairy exports reached $8.2 billion in 2024, the second-highest level ever recorded. That’s a remarkable transformation. As IDFA noted in their February 2025 analysis, “After being a net importer of dairy products a decade ago, the United States now exports $8 billion worth of dairy products to 145 countries.”

The composition of those exports is shifting in telling ways. Brownfield Ag News reported in November 2025 that high-protein whey exports rose nine percent, led by sales to Japan. Farm Progress confirmed in July 2025 that “high-end whey exports continue to grow both in volume and value,” specifically noting that whey protein concentrates and isolates with 80% or more protein are driving the growth. According to the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s reference materials, the United States is now the largest single-country producer and exporter of whey ingredients in the world, with total whey exports reaching 564,000 metric tons in 2023—up 14% from 2019.

The industry is investing, and strong growth prospects have led to $8 billion in new processing plant investments set to increase production over the next two years. By mid-2025, nearly 20 million additional pounds of milk were flowing through new facilities, with much of that capacity focused on cheese—and the whey protein streams that come with it.

This matters for producers because U.S. dairy protein must increasingly meet global specifications. The U.S. Dairy Export Council has been working with the American Dairy Products Institute to develop industry standards for U.S. products and with the International Dairy Federation to develop worldwide technical standards. The National Milk Producers Federation prompted an investigation in 2025—through the U.S. International Trade Commission—into global competitiveness for nonfat milk solids, including milk protein concentrates and isolates.

Why does this matter at the farm level? Asian markets have evolved. China’s domestic milk production has grown, reducing the need for basic powder imports. What they’re purchasing now are specialized high-protein ingredients: lactoferrin for infant formula, protein isolates for clinical nutrition, functional ingredients for the growing urban fitness market.

With New Zealand capacity-constrained and the U.S. investing heavily in protein-processing infrastructure, there’s a genuine opportunity—but only if we’re producing what global buyers want. They’re not paying premium freight costs to import commodity milk. They want protein density that meets international quality standards. The farms supplying that milk are part of an increasingly export-oriented value chain, whether they realize it or not.

Balancing Opportunity and Risk

Any time someone presents a market opportunity, you should ask: “What if the assumptions don’t hold?”

Fair question.

What if the protein premium narrows?

It could happen. Processor capacity might expand. Consumer trends might shift. The protein-to-fat ratio could drift toward historical norms.

My thinking: even if protein premiums moderate, protein is unlikely to become less valuable than fat on a sustained basis. The fundamentals—bioavailability advantages, consumer demand for functional nutrition, processing economics—support continued protein value.

More importantly, breeding for combined solids rather than protein alone provides insurance. Bulls that improve both fat and protein percentages protect against shifts in the ratio. The market has never penalized producers for shipping high total solids. The risk is in low-component production, not in being wrong about which component the market favors most.

What if GLP-1 adoption plateaus?

Possible, but current trajectory suggests otherwise. These medications are being prescribed not just for weight loss but for diabetes management and cardiovascular protection. Insurance coverage is expanding. Pill formulations are entering the market. The user base appears to be institutionalizing rather than peaking.

But even setting GLP-1 aside, other demand drivers—aging populations seeking muscle preservation, fitness culture emphasizing protein intake, Asian markets wanting protein imports—remain intact.

Practical risk management approaches:

Use Net Merit (NM$) rather than extreme protein indexes for a balanced hedge
Maintain health and longevity trait minimums regardless of component goals
Keep some flexibility through beef-on-dairy rather than raising 100% of replacement heifers
Consider nutrition interventions (reversible) before genetic changes (permanent)
Monitor inbreeding coefficients when selecting heavily for protein traits

Practical Takeaways

Bringing this together into actionable items:

Understanding Where You Stand

Calculate the protein-to-fat price ratio from your last few milk checks
Compare your herd’s protein percentage to the Federal Order pool average (now 3.3%)
Have an explicit conversation with your milk buyer about protein premiums and thresholds

Evaluating Genetic Options

Review your current sire lineup for protein trait emphasis
Consider CM$ or updated NM$ rankings alongside traditional TPI
Set minimum thresholds for health and fertility traits before optimizing for components
Look for bulls positive in both protein percentage and protein pounds
Work with your AI rep on what makes sense for your herd
If you’re genomic testing heifers, use protein traits in your retention decisions
Monitor inbreeding levels when concentrating selection on protein traits

Near-Term Nutrition Interventions

Discuss rumen-protected methionine with your nutritionist
Consider a 21-30 day pen trial before full implementation
Track component response carefully to verify ROI on your operation
Pay particular attention to fresh cow and early lactation response

Timeline Expectations

Nutrition changes: visible results in 2-4 weeks
Genetic changes: first daughters milking in 3+ years
Spring 2026 breeding decisions will shape your 2029 bulk tank

Questions to Keep Asking

Does my processor have the infrastructure to pay for high-protein milk?
Am I positioned above or below the pool average for components?
What’s my risk tolerance for genetic strategy changes?
Am I tracking the protein-to-fat ratio, or just looking at absolute prices?

The Bottom Line

The dairy industry has navigated plenty of transitions over the decades. What makes this moment noteworthy is the convergence of forces—pharmaceutical, demographic, and economic—pointing in a consistent direction.

I’m not predicting that butterfat will become worthless or that every operation needs to overhaul its breeding program immediately. What I am suggesting is that assumptions many of us have operated under for the past decade deserve fresh examination.

The market is sending signals. Processors are paying premiums for protein that would have seemed unusual five years ago. Consumer demand is shifting in ways that favor nutrient density over volume. Global buyers are seeking protein ingredients, not commodity powder. And American dairy is increasingly positioned as a global protein exporter, not just a domestic commodity producer.

The combined opportunity is real. For a 500-cow herd that optimizes nutrition, adjusts genetic selection, and captures processor premiums—we’re talking $50,000 to $97,500 annually in additional value. That’s not theoretical. It’s math based on current market conditions and achievable improvements.

Producers who take time to understand these dynamics—and thoughtfully evaluate what they mean for their specific operations—are well positioned. Those who assume the old rules still apply may find themselves wondering why neighbors’ milk checks look different.

This isn’t about chasing trends. It’s about recognizing when fundamental market structures are shifting and responding accordingly. For some operations, that response might be modest adjustments. For others, more significant changes might make sense. Either way, understanding what’s actually happening is the essential first step.

That protein-to-fat ratio on your milk check? It’s telling you something.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

The $4.78 Spread: Why Protein Premiums Won’t Last Past 2027 – Gain an immediate competitive edge with a targeted 60-day action plan for capturing surging protein premiums. This breakdown delivers the exact math on amino acid balancing and arms you with a high-impact “Must-Do” list for Monday morning.
Your 0.77 Ratio Is Wrong: The $67,500 Component Fix That Can’t Wait Until 2028 – Reveal the hidden structural flaw in your bulk tank that could be costing you $67,500 annually. This strategic analysis exposes why breeding for butterfat alone is a losing bet and positions your herd for the 2028 processor requirements.
The GLP-1 Gold Rush: Why Dairy Protein is Pharma’s New Best Friend – Step inside the high-stakes worldwhere pharma meets the milk check. This deep dive into functional nutrition reveals how A2A2 and Kappa-Casein genetics are securing exclusive 15% premiums through new multi-billion dollar weight-loss support contracts.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : Breeding Strategy, dairy genetics, dairy profitability, GLP-1 dairy demand, herd management, milk component pricing, milk protein premiums

Does Your Breeding Program Fit Your Milk Market?

Sunday, December 21st, 2025

The same genetics cost one farm $190,000/year and make another farm $57,000. The difference? Market alignment.

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/2403977/">E447 Does Your Breeding Program Fit Your Milk Mark | RSS.com</a>

Here’s something I’ve been thinking about quite a bit lately. After spending time reviewing proof sheets and talking with dairy farmers from Wisconsin to California, I keep coming back to the same observation: there’s a growing gap between what the catalogs celebrate and what actually drives profitability on individual farms.

Don’t get me wrong—the numbers look impressive. Genetic progress is accelerating. Index values keep climbing. But sit down with producers who’ve been making these decisions for two or three decades, and they’ll share something the marketing materials tend to leave out: genetics that work beautifully on one operation can quietly underperform on another.

What’s interesting here isn’t that some bulls are better than others. It’s that every elite sire represents a specific vision of where dairy is headed—and whether that vision aligns with your milk market, your management approach, and your economic reality is really the question worth exploring.

The Three Gears That Must Mesh

Think of profitable breeding decisions as three interlocking gears: Genetics, Market, and Management. When these gears mesh smoothly, genetic investments translate into income over feed cost and long-term herd health. When they don’t—when you’re selecting for traits your market doesn’t reward or your management can’t support—you’re essentially paying for genetic potential you can’t capture.

As many of us have seen, that’s how you end up with cows that look great on paper but don’t quite pay their way in your specific system.

The visual is simple enough to sketch on a napkin: three gears touching. Genetics turns Market turns Management. If one gear is spinning in the wrong direction—or sized wrong for the others—you get grinding instead of progress.

Gear Misalignment Example

Midwest Freestall — Class III Cheese Plant Contract — Volume-Focused Genetics

Picture a 600-cow Midwest freestall operation shipping exclusively to a cheese plant on a Class III contract. The processor pays heavily on components—protein especially, since that’s what drives cheese yield. At current prices, protein is worth $3.01 per pound and butterfat $1.71 per pound.

The breeding program, though, has been chasing milk volume for years. High-production sires. Big milk numbers. The tank is full, but the tests are running 3.6% fat and 2.95% protein—below the current Holstein breed average of 4.15% fat and 3.36% protein, according to the Canadian Dairy Information Centre’s 2024 data.

Where money leaks out:

Lost protein premium: At 2.95% protein instead of 3.2–3.3%, this herd leaves roughly $0.75–$0.90 per cwt on the table compared to a component-focused herd at similar production levels. On 60 lbs/cow/day, that’s $140–$195 per cow per lactation in foregone protein revenue alone.

Butterfat gap: The 0.3–0.4% fat test difference adds another $95–$125 per cow per year in missed premiums.

Feed efficiency drag: High-volume, low-component cows often require more DMI per pound of milk solids produced. Using USDA’s NM$ 2025 values, moving that extra water through the system costs feed dollars without generating proportional component revenue.

Estimated annual cost for this 600-cow herd: Approximately $150,000–$190,000 in component revenue the cheese plant would have paid—if the genetics matched the market.

The cows aren’t “bad.” The bulk tank isn’t empty. But the breeding program was optimized for a fluid milk check that no longer exists. The Genetics gear is turning toward volume. The Market gear is turning toward components. They’re grinding against each other instead of working together.

Understanding What You’re Actually Buying

Looking at three sires that represent distinctly different breeding philosophies helps make this concrete.

Denovo 2776 Leeds from ABS is built on a premise that resonates with many operations right now: labor is expensive and increasingly difficult to find, so invest in genetics that reduce calving interventions. His pedigree runs through Sandy-Valley Laker back to the De-Su Frazzled 6984 cow family—the same family that gave us Gateway, Hercules, Ajax, and Skeet, according to ABS pedigree records. With essentially flat components, Leeds isn’t designed to transform your butterfat levels. His value proposition centers on strong calving-ease and a solid productive life from a family known for commercial functionality.

Denovo 6856 Hotshot takes a completely different approach. His pedigree traces through Pine-Tree Shadow to the Bomaz Perfect-P line—part of what ABS describes as “one of the premier cow families of the breed for longevity.” Hotshot isn’t positioned as a production leader. He’s built around health, livability, and keeping cows productive through the transition period and beyond.

Urzokari from Synetics represents yet another direction—explicit optimization for robotic milking systems. Emphasizing teat position, udder balance, and locomotion traits that influence whether cows visit the robot voluntarily or need fetching.

Producers are discovering that none of these bulls represents a universally optimal choice. Each makes excellent sense for some operations and may quietly cost money on others. The question isn’t which bull is “best,” but which breeding philosophy fits your particular three gears.

Where NM$ and TPI Fit—And Where They Don’t

Before we go further, it’s worth talking about how this framework relates to Net Merit and TPI, since that’s how most of us were taught to think about genetics.

The April 2025 NM$ revision—documented in detail by Paul VanRaden and colleagues at USDA’s Animal Genomics and Improvement Laboratory—now places 31.8% emphasis on butterfat, 13% on protein, and a combined 17.8% on Feed Saved, which includes body weight composite and residual feed intake. The remaining emphasis spreads across productive life, health, fertility, calving, and conformation traits.

Here’s what’s important to understand: NM$ is designed to maximize lifetime profit for an average U.S. Holstein herd selling into average market conditions. It’s a remarkably well-constructed tool for that purpose. Canadian producers working with LPI or Pro$ face similar considerations—different weightings, different assumptions, same fundamental question of whether those assumptions match your operation.

How the Major Indexes Compare

The differences between selection indexes reflect different market realities and breeding priorities:

NM$ (U.S.) places heavy emphasis on components—31.8% on butterfat alone in the 2025 revision—reflecting the cheese-heavy U.S. processing sector. Feed efficiency gets significant weight at 17.8% combined.
TPI (U.S.) weights production, type, and health traits differently, placing greater emphasis on conformation. Operations selling breeding stock or show cattle often weight TPI more heavily.
Pro$ (Canada) incorporates Canadian market conditions and pricing structures. The formula accounts for Canadian component pricing ratios, which—as we’ll see—are shifting significantly.
LPI (Canada) takes a different approach to balancing production, durability, and health traits within the Canadian context.

The point isn’t that one index is “right,” and others are wrong. It’s that each embeds assumptions about markets, management, and priorities that may or may not match your operation.

A Global Trend, Not Just a North American One

This isn’t just a North American consideration. Globally, component emphasis is intensifying—and the herds that have been selecting for it are pulling ahead.

In Ireland, milk fat content reached 4.51% and protein hit 3.58% in January 2025, according to the Central Statistics Office—both up from the prior year. New Zealand’s Fonterra bases its milk price calculations on standardized 4.2% fat and 3.4% protein, as documented in the Commerce Commission’s September 2025 review—benchmarks that reflect decades of component-focused breeding in pasture-based systems. And across the EU, butter prices hit record highs in early 2025, reaching €7,422 per metric ton in January according to CLAL data—a 36.5% increase over the same month in 2024. Industry analysts describe the fat premium as becoming “structural, not some temporary blip.”

The takeaway? Market alignment isn’t a U.S. phenomenon. It’s a global reality that’s reshaping which genetics deliver returns, regardless of where you farm.

When “Average” Doesn’t Describe Your Situation

But “average” may not describe your situation. If you’re shipping Class III milk to a cheese plant with strong component premiums, NM$ may actually underweight the traits driving your revenue. If you’re in a fluid market with minimal component pay, the 31.8% butterfat emphasis in NM$ could be steering you toward genetics that don’t match your milk check.

The framework in this article doesn’t replace NM$ or TPI—it complements them by asking: Does this index’s assumptions match my actual market, management, and constraints?

Think of NM$ as an excellent starting filter. But the final selection—especially for your top sires getting heavy use—benefits from the three-gear alignment check.

The Concentration Question Worth Understanding

Looking at this trend at the breed level, something jumps out that doesn’t get nearly enough airtime.

Multiple studies have estimated the effective population size of Holsteins—a measure of genetic diversity based on how animals are actually related—at 66-79 animals, despite millions of Holstein cows walking into parlors around the world. Geneticists generally view an effective population size below 50 as the line where long-term adaptability becomes a serious concern, so we’re not over that cliff—but we’re closer than many would guess.

Dr. Chad Dechow, Associate Professor of Dairy Cattle Genetics at Penn State University, has been writing and speaking about this for years. His work shows that genomic selection—for all its tremendous benefits in accelerating genetic improvement—has also sped up how quickly we concentrate genetics in fewer lines.

Why does this matter for your next semen order?

Because the bulls marketed as “outcrosses” today often trace back to the same handful of influential sires, once you unfold the pedigree far enough. And the economic bite of that concentration isn’t theoretical—it’s been quantified.

The Mogul Example: When Success Creates Its Own Risk

Mountfield SSI Dcy Mogul—the youngest Holstein sire to exceed one million units sold. His daughters delivered. His influence now appears throughout the breed’s pedigree, making genuine outcrosses increasingly difficult to find.

Mountfield SSI Dcy Mogul is one of the most influential Holstein sires in breed history. Select Sires announced in September 2017 that he’d exceeded 1 million units sold at just seven years of age, making him the youngest bull to reach that milestone. His impact as a foundation sire for subsequent generations has been enormous.

That success wasn’t accidental. Mogul daughters delivered. But the sheer scale of his use means his genetics now appear in a substantial percentage of the breed’s pedigrees—often multiple times per animal when you trace back six or seven generations.

The concern isn’t that Mogul was a poor bull. He wasn’t. The concern is that when any sire achieves that level of market penetration, finding genuinely unrelated genetics becomes progressively harder. Research by Doublet and colleagues, published in 2019, documented annual inbreeding rates rising to 0.55% per year in the genomic era—roughly double the rate considered sustainable in the long term.

For individual herds, this means that selecting a “new” high-ranking bull may actually be deepening your connection to Mogul, O-Man, Planet, or Supersire rather than diversifying away from them. Checking kinship data isn’t paranoia—it’s due diligence.

What Inbreeding Actually Costs

Italian research from Ablondi and colleagues, published in the Journal of Animal Science in 2023, found that a 1% increase in genomic inbreeding—specifically measured via runs of homozygosity (FROH), which captures actual stretches of identical DNA—is associated with about 134 pounds (61 kg) less milk over a 305-day lactation, along with lower fat and protein yields.

German work from Mugambe and colleagues in the Journal of Dairy Science in 2024 found similar patterns:

32–41 kg less milk per 1% increase
1.4–1.7 kg less fat
1.1–1.3 kg less protein
Calving intervals stretched by roughly a quarter-day per 1% increase

I recently talked with a Wisconsin producer milking about 400 cows who’s been tracking inbreeding and performance for a decade. His take was pretty straightforward: “The daughters are producing more milk than their dams, so the genetic progress is real. But conception rates and feet-and-leg issues have gotten harder to manage. I’m not sure the net gain is as large as the proof sheets suggest.”

The Component Premium Question

The shift toward component-focused genetics has really picked up speed in recent years, especially with the 2025 NM$ revision, which placed 31.8% emphasis on butterfat alone. On paper, that makes a lot of sense given recent price trends. In practice, it depends heavily on where your milk check comes from.

The November 2025 USDA Agricultural Marketing Service announcement showed protein at $3.0143 per pound and butterfat at $1.7061 per pound—a very different picture from a year earlier, when butterfat was over $3.00 a pound. Class III settled at $17.18 per hundredweight. Those relationships move, sometimes dramatically.

Processor Contracts Are Tightening

And processor expectations are tightening—that’s something worth paying attention to. Western Canadian provinces—British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba—announced through the BC Milk Marketing Board a major component pricing ratio shift effective April 1, 2026, moving from 85% butterfat / 10% protein / 5% other solids to 70% butterfat / 25% protein / 5% other solids. That’s a significant rebalancing toward protein that will reward herds already selecting for it and penalize those who aren’t.

In the U.S., the story is similar. New processing capacity often comes with stricter contract requirements. Today’s direct contracts increasingly expect consistent volume, protein tests above 3.2%, and premium somatic cell counts. If your genetics have been drifting away from protein while you’ve been chasing other traits, the next contract renewal window may deliver an unwelcome surprise.

Quick Math Check: What’s Your Component Revenue Share?

Pull your last six milk checks. Add up the component premiums (fat + protein payments above base). Divide by total milk revenue.

Above 25%: Component genetics is likely paying well for you. The 2025 NM$ emphasis on butterfat aligns with your market.
15–25%: Mixed picture. Component genetics help, but don’t over-rotate away from production.
Below 15%: You may be over-investing in component genetics. Consider whether volume-focused or balanced sires deliver better returns in your specific market.

This 5-minute exercise can save thousands in misaligned genetic decisions.

Red Flag Checklist: 5 Warning Signs Your Genetics Don’t Match Your Market

Your fat or protein test has dropped 0.2%+ over 3 years while selecting high-NM$ bulls. NM$ emphasizes components, so if your tests are declining despite following index rankings, something in your selection isn’t translating to your tank.
Your component revenue share (from the Quick Math Check) is under 20%, but you’re heavily using component-focused sires. You may be paying for genetic potential your market doesn’t reward.
You can’t find a prospective sire with less than 8% relationship to your herd. Genetic concentration has narrowed your options more than you realize—time to seek outcross genetics actively.
Your processor has mentioned tightening component thresholds or premium structures in recent communications. With Western Canadian provinces shifting to 70/25/5 (fat/protein/other) pricing in April 2026 and U.S. processors increasingly requiring 3.2%+ protein for premium contracts, genetic decisions made today need to anticipate tomorrow’s standards.
You’re using beef genetics on more than 40% of your herd but haven’t genomic-tested to identify your true top-tier replacements. With dairy heifer inventories at 20-year lows—2.5 million head as of January 2025, according to HighGround Dairy—the cows you keep replacements from matter more than ever.

If you checked two or more: Your three gears may be grinding. Consider a formal review of your breeding program’s alignment with your current market before your next semen order.

The Feed Efficiency Factor

There’s another dimension to this calculation that’s getting more attention in 2025: feed efficiency. The April 2025 NM$ revision now includes 17.8% combined emphasis on Feed Saved, which incorporates both body weight composite and residual feed intake—a significant increase from previous versions.

Here’s what the research tells us: residual feed intake has moderate heritability, typically estimated between 0.15-0.25 in Holstein populations, making it a meaningful selection target over time. And USDA research used in the NM$ calculations shows that feed costs average about 58% of milk income, broken down into 39% for production costs and 19% for maintenance. That’s not “a big part” of the budget; it’s often the biggest lever you have.

Detailed Per-Cow, Per-Lactation Example

Let’s put real numbers to a side-by-side comparison using November 2025 Class III prices and the economic values from the 2025 NM$ revision.

Scenario: Two cows in the same 500-cow Midwest Class III herd

Factor	Cow A (Volume-Focused)	Cow B (Component-Aligned)
Daily milk	62 lbs	56 lbs
Fat test	3.7%	4.2%
Protein test	3.0%	3.3%
305-day milk	18,910 lbs	17,080 lbs
305-day fat	700 lbs	717 lbs
305-day protein	567 lbs	564 lbs

Revenue calculation (Class III component pricing):

Cow A: Fat (700 × $1.71) + Protein (567 × $3.01) + Other solids ≈ $2,904
Cow B: Fat (717 × $1.71) + Protein (564 × $3.01) + Other solids ≈ $2,927

Component advantage for Cow B: ~$23/lactation

Feed cost calculation (using USDA’s NM$ 2025 values of $0.13/lb DMI and requirements of 0.10 lbs DMI per pound of milk, 8.0 lbs per pound of fat, and 6.5 lbs per pound of protein):

Cow A DMI: (18,910 × 0.10) + (700 × 8.0) + (567 × 6.5) = 11,185 lbs
Cow B DMI: (17,080 × 0.10) + (717 × 8.0) + (564 × 6.5) = 10,810 lbs

Feed cost difference: 375 lbs × $0.13 = $49/lactation advantage for Cow B

If Cow B also has 3% better residual feed intake (genetic feed efficiency): Additional savings: ~325 lbs DMI × $0.13 = $42/lactation

Total advantage for component-aligned Cow B in Class III market: $23 (components) + $49 (baseline feed) + $42 (RFI) = ~$114/lactation

Over a 500-cow herd: That’s roughly $57,000/year in additional margin from aligned genetics—not from buying “better” bulls, but from buying bulls that fit the operation’s market and management.

In a fluid market with minimal component premiums, this math reverses. Cow A’s extra 1,830 lbs of milk volume generates more revenue, and the feed efficiency advantage shrinks because you’re not capturing the component value. The same genetics, completely different financial outcome.

What Specialization Actually Costs

Every specialized sire carries trade-offs embedded in his genetic package. The proof sheet highlights the specialization; it doesn’t spell out what you’re giving up.

Leeds’ calving-ease strength comes from specific physical characteristics—smaller, finer skeletal structure, lower birth weight calves, and reduced pelvic dimensions. For operations genuinely struggling with calving difficulty—assisted births over 18–20%—the trade-off often pencils out. For herds where calving assistance is already well-managed, the structural compromise might cost more than the calving-ease saves.

Hotshot’s emphasis on longevity reveals a different dynamic. His moderate milk proof looks more like a genetic ceiling than a starting point. When bred heifers bring $4,000 or more at auction, and raising costs run around $1,700–$2,400 per head, keeping cows in the herd for more lactations makes sense on paper. But if those cows are giving 6–8 lbs/day less than alternatives, whether longevity genetics pay off depends on your culling rate, replacement strategy, and feed costs.

A Northeast grazing operation I spent time with last spring leaned into longevity-focused genetics five years earlier and were genuinely happy with the outcome. “The per-cow production dropped some,” the producer told me, “but with lower replacement costs and better cow health, we’re actually keeping more of what we make.”

Sire Type	Intended Benefit	Hidden Trade-Off	Best Fit	Expensive Misfit
Calving-Ease (e.g., Leeds)	Lower assisted births, reduced labor during calving, fewer injury losses	Smaller frame, reduced mature size, often comes with 6-8 lbs/day lower lifetime production	First-calf heifers; herds with assisted calvings >18%; operations with limited labor for calving supervision	Well-managed herds with <10% assisted births; operations where replacement heifers cost $4,000+ and production matters more than calving ease
Longevity-Focused (e.g., Hotshot)	Extended productive life, lower replacement costs, better transition cow health	Moderate milk proofs often represent genetic ceiling, not starting point; slower genetic progress on production traits	High replacement costs ($2,200+ per heifer); grazing operations; herds targeting 3.5+ lactations; limited heifer inventory	Operations with strong cull cow markets; herds breeding beef-on-dairy on bottom 40%; processors paying volume bonuses; low feed costs favoring higher production
Robotic-Optimized (e.g., Urzokari)	Improved voluntary robot visits, better teat positioning, reduced fetch time	Emphasis on udder/teat traits may sacrifice component genetics or production potential; value only captured if robots utilized efficiently	Robotic dairies; operations struggling with fetch rates >15%; herds prioritizing labor efficiency over per-cow production	Conventional parlor operations; herds with no robot plans; component-paying markets where udder traits matter less than tests

When Realignment Pays Off: A Recovery Story

What happens when a producer recognizes the mismatch and corrects course? I talked with a 550-cow operation in central Minnesota that went through exactly that process.

“We’d been chasing TPI for about eight years,” the herd manager explained. “Good bulls, good genomics, no complaints about the genetics themselves. But we were shipping to a cheese plant, and our protein test just kept sliding—went from 3.25% down to 3.05% over that stretch. Meanwhile, the premiums for protein kept going up.”

When they ran the numbers in 2022, they realized they were leaving close to $180 per cow in component revenue on the table annually. “That’s when it clicked. We weren’t using bad genetics. We were using the wrong genetics for our market.”

They shifted their sire selection criteria—still using high-ranking bulls, but filtering hard for positive protein deviation and component balance. Three years later, their protein test is back to 3.22% and climbing.

“The genetic progress feels slower on paper,” he admitted. “But the milk check is bigger. That’s the number that actually matters.”

Regional Considerations

Where you farm changes these calculations more than most proof sheets acknowledge.

In the Southeast and Southwest, producers dealing with persistent heat stress often find that moderate production with stronger health and fertility traits out-earns elite production genetics that struggle through extended summers. In the Upper Midwest and Northeast, grazing-heavy systems face different realities—a cow built for a California dry lot isn’t always the cow you want walking hillsides in Vermont.

The Beef-on-Dairy Connection

The three-gear framework applies to more than just which dairy sires you’re using—it also shapes your beef-on-dairy strategy.

The 2024 NAAB semen sales report shows 7.9 million beef semen units flowing into U.S. dairy operations, representing over 80% of all beef semen sales. Meanwhile, dairy heifer inventories expected to calve dropped to 2.5 million head as of January 2025—the lowest level since USDA began tracking this data, according to HighGround Dairy analysis. CoBank research projects 357,490 fewer dairy heifers for 2025 compared to the prior year, driven largely by beef-on-dairy breeding decisions.

Here’s where the gears mesh—or grind: If you’re using beef genetics on your bottom-tier cows, you’ve already made a three-gear decision. You’re saying those animals don’t fit your Genetics goals (not worth keeping daughters from), don’t justify the Management investment of raising replacements, and the Market for beef calves currently rewards that choice.

But the framework cuts both ways. With heifer supplies this tight, the cows you do keep replacements from matter more than ever. Beef Magazine’s November 2025 report notes that beef-on-dairy cattle now represent 12–15% of all fed slaughter—the crossbreds have become an indispensable part of the beef supply chain. That’s fine, as long as your top-end genetics are truly aligned with your dairy operation’s market and management. Using beef on low-merit cows makes sense; accidentally breeding beef on cows that should be producing your next generation of high-component replacements is a costly mistake that compounds over time.

Finding Genuine Genetic Diversity

While genetic gains have more than doubled in the genomic era, breeding for diversity inside Holsteins now takes real effort.

For Purebred Holstein Operations

Seek out niche Holstein lines. Legacy maternal lines like Hanover-Hill, Landmark, Meteor, Durham, or Elegant, which were prominent 20–30 years ago but don’t dominate today’s rankings, can bring different genetics to the table.

Request genomic kinship data. Most major AI companies can show you how closely a prospective sire is related to your herd’s core cow families. CDCB offers inbreeding tools as well. For operations that haven’t genomic-tested their cows yet, current testing runs around $40–50 per head—a worthwhile investment if you’re serious about managing inbreeding across your herd.

Unfold pedigrees further back. Many so-called outcross sires look different in the first three generations, then converge on Mogul, O-Man, Planet, or Supersire once you get back to generation six or eight.

Consider the National Animal Germplasm Program. USDA’s germplasm program maintains semen and embryos from older, less-represented lines to preserve genetic diversity for long-term breed health.

“I’ve stopped looking at the top 10 TPI list entirely. If a bull doesn’t have positive deviation for protein and decent feet-and-legs, he doesn’t enter my tank, regardless of his rank. The proof sheets tell you what a bull can do genetically. They don’t tell you whether those genetics fit your parlor, your market, or your management. That’s the part you have to figure out yourself.”

— Wisconsin producer, 650-cow operation

A Framework for Matching Genetics to Your Operation

Five Questions Before You Pick a Bull

1. What’s my actual milk market? How much of your check comes from components versus volume?

2. What’s my primary constraint? Is involuntary culling above 25%? Are assisted calvings over 18%? Is production lagging?

3. Does this sire truly address that constraint? If calving isn’t a major issue, calving-ease sires might just be giving away production.

4. How closely is this bull related to my herd? Check genomic kinship or pedigree overlap.

5. What does the five-year math look like? Account for production, components, feed costs, replacements, and health.

The Larger Perspective

When you put all of this together, what’s interesting is how much breeding has shifted from “Which bull is best?” to “Which bull best fits what I’m actually trying to do here?”

The Holsteins that maximize returns on a 3,000-cow California dry lot shipping Class III milk are not the same Holsteins that fit a 200-cow Wisconsin grazing herd shipping mostly fluid milk. Both operations might reasonably use bulls like Leeds or Hotshot—but in very different proportions, for very different reasons, and with very different expectations.

Three Actions Before Your Next Semen Order

Calculate your component revenue percentage from your last six milk checks. If it’s under 15%, reconsider heavy use of component-focused sires.
Request kinship reports on your top 5 prospective sires from your AI representative. Flag any showing an elevated relationship to your existing cow families or heavy Mogul/O-Man/Planet ancestry.
Identify one genuine outcross sire from an underrepresented maternal line for 5–10% of your matings—not to chase diversity for its own sake, but to maintain options as the breed continues to concentrate.

The tools to make smarter, more aligned decisions exist—genomic kinship, feed efficiency data, inbreeding metrics, and diverse sire options. The challenge, and the opportunity, is taking the time to line those tools up with the reality of your own farm.

The Bottom Line

What’s been your experience with specialized genetics? Have calving-ease, longevity-focused, or component-heavy sires delivered the returns their proofs suggested under your conditions? The most useful lessons often come from comparing what the proofs promised with what actually showed up in the bulk tank and the balance sheet.

Key Takeaways

Fit beats rank. The same genetics can cost one farm $190,000/year and add $57,000 to another—the difference is market alignment, not genetic quality.
Misalignment drains profit quietly. Volume genetics in a cheese market can leave $150,000–$190,000 annually on the table, even when production looks strong.
NM$ is designed for the average herd. The 2025 revision puts 31.8% emphasis on butterfat. If your market doesn’t reward components, you’re paying for genetic potential you can’t capture.
Inbreeding costs compound. Each 1% increase means ~134 lbs less milk plus weaker fertility—and at 0.55% annually, the breed is accumulating it faster than ever.
Before your next semen order: Calculate your component revenue share (5 minutes), request kinship data on prospective sires, and reserve 5–10% of matings for genuine outcrosses.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

The same genetics can cost one operation $190,000 a year and add $57,000 to another. The difference isn’t genetic quality—it’s market alignment. This article introduces a three-gear framework (Genetics, Market, Management) that helps producers evaluate whether their breeding program actually fits their milk check. Drawing on USDA’s April 2025 NM$ revision and peer-reviewed research, it demonstrates how misaligned genetics can quietly drain profitability even when production looks strong. Practical tools include a 5-minute component revenue analysis, five questions to ask before selecting any sire, and strategies for finding genuine diversity as the breed concentrates. The goal isn’t finding “better” bulls—it’s finding bulls that fit your operation.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More

2025 Genetic Reset: How Rigid Bull Selection Could Cost Your Herd $147000 – Stop losing money on the 2025 genetic reset. This article exposes the $147,000 risk of rigid bull thresholds and delivers an adaptive blueprint to capture a 37% profit boost through smarter, custom index strategies.
Breeding Into a Moving Market: What Butterfat’s Crash Reveals About Dairy’s Genetic Timing Problem – Don’t get caught in the five-year “timing gap.” By analyzing the recent butterfat crash, this piece reveals how to build a flexible herd that remains profitable even when commodity prices flip overnight.
BANNs CRUSH Traditional Models: The AI Secret Weapon Reshaping Dairy Genetics – Is your genomic data lying to you? Discover how Biologically Annotated Neural Networks are crushing traditional models, boosting accuracy by 7% and redefining what’s possible for your operation’s future health and milk yield.

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Categories : Dairy Cattle Breeding Strategies

Tags : Breeding Strategy, component pricing, dairy genetics, dairy profitability, Feed Efficiency, genomic inbreeding, Milk Production

The Room Went Quiet. Everyone Left. Then an $8,100 Phone Call Changed Holstein History Forever.

Saturday, December 20th, 2025

The untold stories of Rudy Missy, Blackrose, and the stockmen who saw what the experts couldn’t

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/2402533/">E446 The Room Went Quiet. Everyone Left. Then an $ | RSS.com</a>

It was early October in Madison, Wisconsin, and World Dairy Expo week had arrived.

For the Genosource team back in Iowa, this year carried extra weight, this year carried extra weight. Ladyrose Caught Your Eye—the Unix daughter they’d acquired immediately after Madison in 2021—had already achieved EX-95, cementing her place among the breed’s elite. Now she was back on the colored shavings, a three-time class winner, an All-American, an All-Canadian, representing a bloodline that had defied the odds for three decades.

Ladyrose Caught Your Eye on the colored shavings at World Dairy Expo—a three-time class winner whose EX-96 mammary system tells only part of the story. The real story is the three decades of setbacks, second chances, and stubborn belief that put her there.

“She is one of those rare cows that combines cow family, show-winning type, and high genomics,” Tim Rauen of Genosource recalls. Standing in that ring in October, she was living proof.

I’ve covered many Expos over the years I’ve been writing about this industry. But what keeps bringing me back to this cow isn’t the banners or the scores—it’s knowing the decades of setbacks, second chances, and stubborn belief that led to her standing in that ring.

Because here’s what most people watching that week didn’t fully understand: they weren’t just witnessing one cow’s achievement. They were seeing the living proof of stories that began with barn fires, bankruptcy courts, rock stars investing in Holsteins, and phone calls that changed everything.

And those stories—the ones behind the cow in front of them—are what this is really about.

The Call That Changed Everything

Twenty-one years earlier, on a February afternoon in 2003, snow was falling sideways outside the Wisconsin Holstein Convention Sweetheart Sale.

The room was emptying. Experienced breeders—men who had driven through farm country slush and missed morning milking to be there—were already heading for the exits. A five-year-old Holstein named Wesswood-HC Rudy Missy stood in the ring, and the bidding had stalled at a price that felt almost insulting.

Her rump “wasn’t entirely balanced.” That’s what they were saying. And in the unforgiving world of elite cattle auctions, that phrase might as well be a death sentence.

Steve Hayes watched another bidder shake his head and walk away, and felt that familiar mix of disappointment and creeping doubt that every breeder knows—the voice that whispers whether you’ve been fooling yourself all along. This cow he’d helped develop, believed in, poured years into. Was she really going to slip through the cracks like this?

Then the phone rang in the back office.

Matt Steiner’s voice crackled through from Pine-Tree Dairy down in Ohio. The man had never even laid eyes on this cow in person. But something about her—maybe thirty years of studying what makes genetics tick, maybe an instinct honed through decades of disappointment and triumph—told him everything he needed to know.

His $8,100 bid secured what would become the 2014 Global Cow of the Year.

Seagull-Bay Supersire-ET stands proudly at Select Sires, representing the commercial pinnacle of the Wesswood-HC Rudy Missy genetic legacy. From a cow that couldn’t attract buyers at $7,000 to a bull achieving millionaire status in AI sales, Supersire embodies how exceptional maternal genetics can reshape an entire industry. His success validates what Matt Steiner saw in that 2003 phone bid—sometimes the most transformative genetics come in unexpected packages.

I keep thinking about that moment. A roomful of experts walking away from a cow that would reshape the breed, and one man on a phone line three states away who saw what they couldn’t. Today, her descendants include Seagull-Bay Supersire—with over 100,000 daughters worldwide—and Genosource Captain, who held the #1 TPI position for seven consecutive proof runs through December 2024 and remains among the breed’s most influential sires. The genetic value flowing from that single $8,100 phone bid has generated hundreds of millions in semen sales.

But here’s what I keep coming back to when I think about this story. It’s something Steve Wessing, Missy’s original co-breeder, said when reflecting on her journey: “I don’t think she would’ve ever scored EX-92 at our place.”

That’s the kind of honesty you don’t hear often enough—recognizing that cattle reach their potential in different environments, under different management systems. Matt Steiner didn’t just buy a cow that day. He gave her a stage where she could finally perform.

Of course, Steiner didn’t know that’s what he was doing. Nobody did. That certainty only comes later, when you’re telling the story. Living it is different.

The Two Steves: A Friendship Built Across a Fence Line

To understand how Rudy Missy even existed, you have to go back to a different Wisconsin pasture in the early 1990s.

Steve Wessing had started with eighteen registered Holsteins from the Milkstein herd—animals that came with warnings. “There wasn’t a lot of type in that herd,” the industry veterans told him and his wife, Cheryl. And honestly? The experts weren’t wrong. When those first cows got classified, only one scored Very Good: Milkstein Citation Della.

Nothing about Della screamed “genetic goldmine.” She was just a cow that showed up every day, did her job, and kept producing. The kind of cow you don’t think twice about.

But Steve Wessing trusted his eyes over other people’s opinions. And his neighbor, Steve Hayes, was paying attention.

Here’s what I love about this part of the story. Hayes walked past that fence line between their places every morning. He’d pause and study those young cows—the depth through their hearts, how they moved around the feed bunks. That quality you recognize when you see it, even if you can’t quite name it yet.

When Della’s granddaughter Wesswood Elton Mimi came along, both Steves knew they were looking at something special.

“She was a treasure of a cow, very low maintenance, easy to work with,” they’d later recall. “When new feed was delivered, she made sure she had her own place at the front of the line.”

I can picture her so clearly from that description. The kind of cow with personality. The kind you remember long after she’s gone.

Then the fire came.

The Night Everything Almost Ended

Anyone who’s been through it knows that a barn fire is the nightmare that never fully leaves you. The smell of smoke mixing with the panicked bellowing of cattle. The helplessness of watching years of work potentially disappear into the night air. The questions that come later—what could I have done differently, was there something I missed, why us?

Devastating flames tore through the Wisconsin barn one night, and thirteen-year-old Claudette—Mimi’s grandmother, who had already pumped out a quarter million pounds of milk for the Wessings—stood among the smoke and chaos. She survived, thank God. But hip problems from the trauma meant her production career was effectively over. She would have easily hit 300,000 pounds.

Steve Wessing stood in that ash-covered milking parlor afterward, doing the math that nobody wants to do. Adding up what was lost. Subtracting what insurance might cover. Trying to figure out if there was a path forward, or if this was the ending he’d never planned for.

By December 1994, he made the call that went against every farming instinct he had: dispersal sale.

Anyone who’s ever had to let go of something they built knows what that decision costs. It’s not just business. It’s admitting that sometimes the thing you poured yourself into doesn’t get to continue the way you planned. It’s signing the paperwork and then going home to a barn that feels different. Quieter. Wrong.

But then—and this is the part that still gets me—something happened that only happens when people genuinely care about each other.

Steve Hayes had worked out an understanding with his neighbor before the auction: if Hayes bid highest on Mimi, they’d own her together.

Think about that for a moment. A neighbor, watching another neighbor face the unthinkable, steps in instead of standing back. Not to buy cheap—to share the burden. To make sure the genetics survive. To keep his friend connected to something worth saving.

Watching Hayes keep raising his hand as the price climbed past what made most breeders squirm was something those present never forgot. When the gavel fell, two friends from rural Wisconsin suddenly owned what would become one of the most valuable cows in Holstein history.

Neither of them had any clue what they’d just bought.

The Heifer Calf Nobody Expected

When Mimi was bred to Startmore Rudolph—a breeding the AI stud specifically wanted because they expected a bull calf—the two Steves stood in that pasture together, both knowing this decision would either validate their partnership or haunt them for decades.

In 1997, a heifer calf was born: Wesswood-HC Rudy Missy.

At the time, a heifer when you wanted a bull just feels like the universe not cooperating. Again. You do the math on what you were hoping to sell, and you adjust. You move on. It’s only looking back that you can see how the thing that frustrated you became the thing that mattered most.

But that’s cold comfort when you’re standing in the barn wondering what went wrong.

As a cow, though, Missy became what geneticists call a “genetic multiplier”—ultimately producing eighteen sons in AI service and forty-two daughters classified Excellent or Very Good.

What nobody talks about is the waiting. You make a breeding decision, and you won’t really know if it worked for years, sometimes longer. You’re betting a piece of your future on outcomes you can’t see yet. Every one of these breeders lived through stretches where they just had to trust the process and keep showing up—not knowing whether they were building something or wasting their time.

Today, the Steiner family at Pine-Tree Dairy still welcomes Holstein enthusiasts during Ohio Holstein Convention tours. The legacy Matt Steiner’s phone call started continues through his sons, who initially had their doubts about Missy’s curved legs and long teats but learned to trust their father’s eye.

“We acquired her immediately after Madison in 2021,” Tim Rauen of Genosource recalls about Caught Your Eye, another cow woven into this genetic tapestry. “She is one of those rare cows that combines cow family, show-winning type, and high genomics.”

You see the same thing happening, over and over: stockmen seeing what others miss, trusting instinct over auction-day consensus, waiting to find out if they were right.

Breeding Gold from the Ashes of Financial Disaster

While Rudy Missy’s story unfolded in Wisconsin, another drama was playing out that would prove equally consequential—this one born from complete financial collapse.

The 1980s Investor Era had transformed dairy breeding into a playground for tax-bracket-chasing bankers. Section 46 of the Internal Revenue Code allowed wealthy outsiders to write off cattle purchases against their personal income, and prices went absolutely insane. Bulls that should have commanded $50,000 were selling for ten times that.

This was the era when John Lennon of The Beatles invested through George Morgan’s Dreamstreet operation—”threw so much money in the pot that they had to get rid of some of it very quickly,” as industry insiders recalled. Spring Farm Fond Rose, purchased for $56,000 with Lennon’s investment, sold for $250,000 just a few years later. Even rock royalty couldn’t predict which bloodlines would endure—but the money flowing into Holstein genetics signaled something extraordinary was happening in American agriculture.

Jack Stookey was the perfect man for that era—smooth as silk, could charm anyone. He built an empire on other people’s money, snapping up champions and dominating shows.

But bubbles always burst. They always do.

When the IRS started challenging these tax schemes, the money dried up overnight. What followed is hard to tell, even now.

On a Saturday afternoon in winter 1985, Stookey couldn’t pay his hired help, so he instructed them to load a trailer with bull calves destined for slaughter—animals he had previously planned to sell for breeding purposes. Among them were three sons of Continental Scarlet. An AI stud had already spoken for one of the bulls, but Jack couldn’t wait. The bills couldn’t wait.

I think about the hired hands who had to load those calves, knowing what was coming. About Jack making that call because there was no other call to make. About genetics that could have shaped the breed for generations, gone because the bills couldn’t wait another week.

There’s no clean way to tell that story. It’s just loss, compounded.

The Man Who Saw Something in the Wreckage

But where most people saw only the ashes of Stookey’s empire, Louis Prange saw something else entirely.

While everyone else was running from the mess, Prange looked at that barn full of world-class cattle sitting in legal limbo and recognized what nobody else could see. Decades of careful breeding don’t just vanish because someone files for bankruptcy, right? The genetics are still there. The potential is still there.

Prange worked out a deal with the bankruptcy trustee to lease the best cows, flush embryos, and split the proceeds. Among those salvaged genetics was Nandette TT Speckle-Red—the same red-and-white cow that had been dominating shows just years before.

What Prange did next still strikes me as quietly brilliant.

He planned what’s called a “corrective cross”—mating two animals whose strengths perfectly complement each other’s weaknesses. He wanted to breed Speckle to To-Mar Blackstar, a production powerhouse who could pump out incredible milk volumes but needed help on the structural side.

Jack, even in bankruptcy, was still trying to call shots, pushing for different bulls. When it came time to deliver the semen: “My tank ran dry,” he told Prange during that famous phone call.

So Prange went with his gut.

On March 24, 1990, Stookey Elm Park Blackrose came into this world—born in the shadow of bankruptcy court, conceived through a vision of what could be rather than what was.

Of course, standing in that barn in March 1990, nobody knew any of this. Prange had a calf. That’s all. Whether she’d amount to anything—whether any of them would—was still just hope and guesswork. The certainty only comes later, when you’re telling the story. Living it means showing up every day, not knowing if the bet will pay off.

First and Only: The Red Revolution That Changed Everything

The legendary Stookey Elm Park Blackrose, a cow whose massive frame and amazing udder, captured here, hinted at the genetic revolution she would unleash.

When Blackrose hit the auction block in December 1991, she was just an 18-month-old Blackstar daughter selling for $4,500.

Mark Rueth was fitting cattle at that sale, and he had this feeling about her. He told his buddy Mark VanMersbergen: “This heifer’s got something special. Deep-ribbed, wide-rumped… you just know.”

They partnered with the Schaufs from Indianhead Holsteins on what turned out to be one of the most significant cattle purchases in Holstein history.

Blackrose grew into a massive, commanding presence that dominated wherever she went. Her numbers were off the charts: 42,229 pounds of milk at five years old, with 4.6% butterfat and 3.4% protein. That EX-96 classification put her in conversation with the most structurally perfect cows ever evaluated.

But the real magic was what she produced.

The culmination of a dynasty: Lavender Ruby Redrose-Red (EX-96). In 2005, she achieved the impossible, becoming the first Red & White cow ever named Supreme Champion at World Dairy Expo, proving the enduring magic of the Blackrose line.

Her lineage eventually led to Lavender Ruby Redrose-Red, who in 2005 did something that still stops me when I think about it— first Red & White cow ever named Supreme Champion over all breeds at World Dairy Expo.

First and only. Let me tell you what that moment meant.

For decades, breeders working with red genetics had been told—sometimes subtly, sometimes not—that their cattle were “second tier.” Beautiful, sure. Competitive within their color class, absolutely. But Supreme Champion material? The conventional wisdom said no.

When Redrose-Red stood alone in that Coliseum at the Alliant Energy Center in Madison, above every black and white champion in the building, it wasn’t just a win. It was permission. Permission to finally exhale. To stop defending what they’d chosen to love. To know, just once, that the doubters had been wrong all along.

For people who had spent their careers hearing “not quite good enough,” watching that cow take her place in history meant something that went bone-deep. The kind of vindication you wait a lifetime for and aren’t sure will ever come.

From bankruptcy to the history books in fifteen years.

And now, two decades later, that same bloodline flows through Ladyrose Caught Your Eye—the EX-95 cow who dominated the colored shavings at World Dairy Expo 2024 and proved the dynasty is far from finished.

What the Industry Still Gets Wrong

Here’s the uncomfortable truth that these stories reveal, and it’s something most people in our business don’t want to admit:

We are systematically terrible at recognizing genetic value when it stands right in front of us.

Rudy Missy’s “unbalanced rump” had breeders heading for the exits. Designer Miss sold for $2,100—the lowest price at the legendary 1985 Hanover Hill dispersal—while Brookview Tony Charity commanded $1.45 million at the same sale. Blackrose went for $4,500 at a bankruptcy auction. Even Lennon’s money couldn’t predict which Dreamstreet genetics would endure and which would fade.

Every single one of these so-called “rejects” outperformed the million-dollar sure bets.

The conventional wisdom of their eras dismissed them. The data available couldn’t fully capture what made them special. And yet, stockmen like Matt Steiner, Louis Prange, and the two Steves saw something—felt something—that the catalogs and classification scores couldn’t quantify. (For more on influential maternal lines, see The 7 Most Influential Holstein Brood Cows of the Modern Era.)

Today’s genomic tools are powerful. They tell us more than we’ve ever known. But even now, in December 2025, with all our technology, the fundamental challenge remains the same: the biggest mistake in dairy genetics isn’t buying the wrong cow—it’s walking away from the right one because she doesn’t look perfect on paper.

The Living Proof

As I write this, the legacies of these matriarchs aren’t historical footnotes—they’re actively shaping breeding decisions on farms from Wisconsin to New Zealand.

Genosource Captain—who held the #1 TPI position for seven consecutive proof runs through December 2024 and remains among the breed’s elite sires—traces directly back to Rudy Missy. The cow everyone walked away from at that Wisconsin sale barn is now the grandmother of one of the most influential bulls of his generation.

Ladyrose Caught Your Eye has produced four high-type sons by Lambda—currently one of the breed’s most sought-after sires for type—while continuing to dominate show rings. Her lineage traces directly back to Blackrose, the bankruptcy-born cow that rewrote what was possible for Red Holsteins.

And here’s something that keeps me thinking: Rudy Missy’s great-granddaughter, Ammon-Peachy Shauna-ET, was named 2015 Global Cow of the Year—making grandmother and great-granddaughter back-to-back Global Cow winners. That kind of consistency across generations isn’t luck. It’s something deeper.

Ammon-Peachy Shauna-ET in front of the milkhouse at Seagull Bay Dairy.

The Steiner family at Pine-Tree Dairy continues hosting tours for Holstein enthusiasts, passing on the philosophy that maternal lines matter more than we ever thought.

I’d be lying if I said these outcomes were inevitable. Good decisions help. But so does timing you can’t control, and breaks that could easily have gone the other way. The two Steves were skilled, but they were also lucky—lucky the fire didn’t take more, lucky Hayes had the cash to bid, lucky that heifer calf had the genetics she had. Skill positions you. Luck decides.

What This Means for All of Us

I’ve spent months with these stories, and what strikes me most isn’t the scale of the achievement—it’s how human the whole thing is.

These aren’t tales of corporate breeding programs with unlimited resources. They’re stories of neighbors becoming partners across fence lines. Of a man betting his career on a phone call to buy a cow he’d never seen. Of someone salvaging genetics from a bankruptcy court when everyone else had given up. Of friendships that turned into dynasties.

What drove all of them forward wasn’t just data or dollars. It was observation, intuition, and the willingness to trust what they saw when everyone else was walking away.

What I don’t want to do is make this sound easy—like all you need is good instincts, and everything works out. For every Rudy Missy, there are cows that didn’t pan out. Partnerships that didn’t survive. Bets that cost people money they couldn’t afford to lose. The stockmen in these stories weren’t right every time. They were right often enough, and they kept going anyway. That’s the part that’s harder to teach.

The lessons these matriarchs leave us are simple to say, harder to live:

Trust your eyes over conventional wisdom. Steve Wessing bought cattle that others warned him about. Matt Steiner bid on a cow he’d never seen. Louis Prange invested in genetics that everyone else had abandoned.
Build partnerships with people who share your vision. The two Steves created more together than either could have alone. Great genetics need great teams.
Focus on transmission, not just individual performance. The cows that built empires weren’t always the flashiest—they were the ones who consistently passed their best traits to the next generation, regardless of the environment.
Be patient through adversity. Fires, bankruptcies, dismissive auctions—these setbacks became stepping stones for those who kept going when quitting would have been easier. And quieter. And probably smarter, on paper.

The Question That Matters

The next time you’re at a sale—or walking through your own barn before dawn, studying a heifer that doesn’t quite fit the mold—I hope you’ll think about these stories.

That heifer in the back pen, the one with the slightly off topline your neighbor dismissed last week. Maybe she’s nothing special. Or maybe she’s carrying something you can’t see yet—something that won’t show up for another generation or two.

Somewhere right now, a cow that nobody’s paying attention to is quietly carrying the genetics that will reshape our industry for the next fifty years. The question isn’t whether she exists.

The phone’s ringing. The room’s going quiet. The experts are walking away.

And somewhere in that ring—or in your own barn tomorrow morning—there’s a cow nobody’s fighting for.

Maybe that’s the one.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

$8,100 built a genetic empire. Matt Steiner bought Rudy Missy by phone while experts walked away. She became the 2014 Global Cow of the Year—her descendants are worth hundreds of millions.
The cheap cow won. Designer Miss: $2,100. Brookview Tony Charity: $1.45 million. Same 1985 sale. The “reject” outperformed the record-breaker.
Friendship outlasts disaster. When fire forced Steve Wessing’s dispersal, his neighbor bid to share the loss—not profit from it. That partnership built a dynasty.
Bankruptcy can’t kill great genetics. Louis Prange salvaged Blackrose from court chaos. Fifteen years later: the first and only R&W Supreme Champion in World Dairy Expo history.
The cow nobody’s fighting for might be the one. Every empire here started with an animal that the industry dismissed. The next Rudy Missy is in someone’s barn right now. Maybe yours.

Learn More

Component Gold Rush: Are You Still Breeding for Volume While Your Neighbors Cash In? – Capture the component premium by swapping volume-chasing for component-heavy breeding. This analysis arms you with ROI data showing how a 0.1% fat increase secures your milk check without adding a single extra stall.
Bred for Success, Priced for Failure: Your 4-Path Survival Guide to Dairy’s Genetic Revolution – Protect your equity against the processing crisis where genetic potential outpaces plant capacity. This roadmap delivers a five-year survival strategy, positioning your operation against component caps and shifting processor contracts before they squeeze you out.
Why This Dairy Market Feels Different – and What It Means for Producers – Double your genetic progress using targeted breeding programs that deliver 2% annual productivity gains. This blueprint for robotic ROI breaks down how technology investments translate into actual margin instead of just higher debt.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Breeder Profiles

Tags : airy genetics, Breeding Strategy, cow families, genetic progress, Holstein breeding, show ring success

From $200 Holstein Bulls to $1,400 Beef Crosses: Your 3-Week Implementation Guide

Tuesday, October 14th, 2025

Why do some dairies bank $100K+ from beef crosses while neighbors get $200 for Holstein bulls?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: What farmers are discovering through real-world experience is remarkable—beef-cross calves now bring around $1,370 at Pennsylvania auctions while Holstein bulls fetch maybe $200, according to recent USDA market reports. This seven-fold premium stems from three converging factors: beef cow inventory hitting its lowest point since 1961 (27.9 million head per USDA’s January report), sexed semen technology achieving 70-80% of conventional conception rates, and research from the Journal of Animal Science confirming crossbreds demonstrate superior feed conversion and carcass quality versus straight dairy steers. Nearly three-quarters of dairy operations now engage in some beef-on-dairy breeding, with leading farms, such as McCarty Family Dairy in Kansas, reporting that cattle sales represent roughly half of their monthly revenue during strong markets. Economic modeling from UW-Madison indicates profitability holds as long as crossbreds maintain at least double the value of Holstein bulls—suggesting a practical floor around $450-500 even after inevitable market corrections. Here’s what this means for your operation: implementing a conservative approach with just 15% of your herd could generate $25,000-40,000 in additional annual revenue without betting the farm. The opportunity remains open for producers willing to act with measured optimism and proper risk awareness.

I recently spoke with a producer from Pennsylvania who mentioned something that stopped me in my tracks. His beef-cross calves just brought around $1,370 at the New Holland auction, according to recent USDA market reports from September. Meanwhile, his neighbor, located in the same region and operating similarly, continues to receive roughly $200 for straight Holstein bulls on a good day.

What’s interesting here is that this isn’t just a Pennsylvania story. I’m hearing similar accounts from Wisconsin to California, Texas to Vermont, and it raises questions worth exploring. Some operations are capturing an additional $100,000 or more annually through strategic breeding decisions, while others continue with traditional approaches. The difference isn’t simply about access to information—it’s about recognizing and acting on converging opportunities.

Ken McCarty from McCarty Family Dairy in Kansas offered a particularly compelling perspective at the recent World Dairy Expo. You know what stuck with me? He recalled attempting to sell Holstein bull calves years ago, describing them as “two for $5,” with no takers. Today, as he explained to the audience, cattle sales have transformed from a budget afterthought to representing approximately half of monthly revenue during strong markets. That’s more than incremental improvement. It’s a fundamental business transformation.

I’ve noticed similar stories emerging from diverse operations lately. An Ohio producer described an identical trajectory last month—from essentially giving away bull calves to generating significant revenue through beef crosses. Then there’s this Wisconsin dairyman who runs 300 cows and became one of his region’s early adopters. Down in Georgia, a 600-cow operation told me they’re now banking an extra $120,000 annually. These aren’t isolated success stories; they represent something broader worth understanding.

When Three Industry Trends Converged

***From Afterthought to Game-Changer: How 7.9 Million Units of Beef Semen Rewrote Dairy Economics***

Looking at this trend, what’s particularly noteworthy is how this opportunity emerged from the convergence of three independent developments. Understanding each component helps explain why some producers captured value while others missed the signals.

The current situation of the beef industry provides essential context. USDA’s January 2025 cattle report documented approximately 27.9 million beef cows nationally—the lowest level recorded since the early 1960s. Total cattle inventory decreased to 86.7 million head, reflecting sustained pressure on beef production capacity. Three consecutive years of drought across the Great Plains forced substantial herd liquidations.

Driving through Nebraska last summer, I observed pastures that typically support cow-calf operations standing empty—a clear reminder of supply constraints affecting the entire beef complex. A rancher near North Platte told me he’d sold his entire herd rather than buy $300 hay. Can’t blame him.

Simultaneously—and this is where it gets interesting—sexed semen technology reached practical viability. By the mid-2010s, conception rates improved substantially. Under good management protocols, sexed semen often achieves 70-80% of conventional rates, according to various university studies and extension reports. While this advancement didn’t make headlines, it fundamentally altered replacement strategies. What farmers are finding is they can now generate adequate replacements from their top-performing animals—perhaps 30% of the herd—while directing remaining breedings toward terminal crosses.

The third development surprised even experienced cattle feeders. Research from the Journal of Animal Science and multiple land-grant universities documented that beef-dairy crossbreds weren’t merely “improved Holstein steers.” They demonstrated measurably superior performance—better growth rates, improved feed conversion, enhanced carcass quality. Major processors report acceptance rates for these crosses now exceed 95%, with many achieving Choice grade or better. The kind of performance that makes feeding operations genuinely interested, if you know what I mean.

Factor	Current Status	Historical Context	Impact
Beef Cattle Inv	27.9m head	Lowest ’61	Supply shortage
Sexed Semen Tech	70-80% concept	Prev impact	Efficient strat
Crossbred Perf	Superior conv	Better Holstein	95% acceptance

Early Adopters: Different Thinking, Strategic Implementation

I’ve been thinking about what separated these pioneers who began beef-on-dairy breeding around 2015-2016 from their peers. It wasn’t necessarily farm size or capital resources. They approached risk and opportunity differently, somehow.

Their typical strategy involved measured experimentation rather than wholesale conversion. They’d identify maybe 50 to 75 lower-performing animals—you know, third-lactation cows with conception challenges, candidates for culling regardless. The economics were straightforward enough: with Holstein bulls bringing $50 and beef crosses potentially fetching $250 or more, even modest success rates justified the marginally higher semen costs.

What I find particularly clever about their approach was the trial design. They selected proven, easy-calving Angus genetics rather than exotic breeds. Maintained existing AI service providers. And—this is crucial—they secured buyer commitments before initiating breeding programs. Having confirmed market access before breeding decisions proved pivotal to consistent returns.

A producer in Idaho shared his early experience: “We started with 60 cows in 2016. Nothing fancy. Just wanted to see if this beef-cross thing was real. That first group of calves generated an additional $18,000. Not huge money, but enough to know we were onto something.”

Now, not every operation found immediate success. A producer in New Mexico attempted the same approach but initially struggled with buyer acceptance. “Our local market wasn’t ready for crossbreds yet,” he explained. “Took us a year to find the right buyers who understood what we were producing.” That’s an important reminder—market development varies by region. Even within Arizona, producers in Phoenix-area markets report premiums 15-20% higher than those near Tucson, reflecting different buyer bases.

Evolution from Experiment to Core Strategy

The adoption pattern followed remarkably consistent phases across different regions and operation sizes, which I find fascinating.

During the initial phase—let’s say 2015 through 2017—farms allocated 10-15% of breedings to beef bulls, typically focusing on problem breeders. Revenue impact remained modest, perhaps 2-3% of total farm income. But the learning value? That proved substantial. Which sires performed best? What specifications did buyers prefer? How should calf management protocols adapt?

The scaling phase (2018-2020) saw operations expand to 25-35% beef breeding as data accumulated and buyer relationships developed. This is when sexed semen integration became crucial. Top-tier genetics received sexed dairy semen for replacement purposes, while lower-performing animals were bred for beef production. Revenue contribution increased to 5-8% of farm income—becoming materially significant.

Current adoption reflects industry-wide recognition. Recent industry reporting indicates that a large majority—nearly three-quarters—of dairy operations now use some beef semen, according to the latest data from Farm Journal. For operations like McCarty’s, cattle sales can represent substantial monthly revenue during favorable market conditions. We’re talking about a complete business model evolution from a decade ago.

Labor Challenges: The Under-Discussed Constraint

Here’s something that concerns me, and I think we should discuss it more openly. Premium calf values come with management requirements that deserve careful consideration.

Crossbred calves require different protocols than traditional dairy calves, particularly during the critical first 30 days when respiratory challenges are more common. Achieving the growth rates buyers expect demands precise feeding management. And unlike Holstein bulls, which are typically marketed through single channels, beef crosses require evaluation and sorting for multiple programs.

This intensified management intersects with broader labor challenges we’re all aware of. A Texas A&M AgriLife analysis estimated that about half of the U.S. dairy workforce are immigrants, producing close to four-fifths of the nation’s milk. Current immigration uncertainties create operational risks that many producers are experiencing firsthand.

I’m hearing similar concerns from producers across multiple states. Wisconsin operations describe workers hesitant to report following nearby enforcement actions. Arizona and Idaho dairies face challenges in retaining experienced calf managers. Vermont producers express similar concerns. Even down in Florida, where you might not expect it, labor availability is constraining expansion plans. The H-2A program, while valuable for seasonal agriculture, doesn’t address year-round dairy labor needs—as we all know too well.

What worries me is that the skills required for premium calf production—health assessment, nutritional management, market timing—require experience that takes years to develop. A calf buyer recently explained that management quality can create $200-300 per head value differences. That margin? That’s the entire profit opportunity for many operations.

Understanding Market Premiums: The Hide Color Reality

Let’s address something that generates understandable frustration among producers—the $100-200 premium for black-hided calves. I know, it seems arbitrary. But the economics reflect market realities worth examining.

Analysis from organizations, including the American Angus Association, indicates black cattle demonstrate statistical advantages in marbling consistency and feed efficiency. More significantly—and this is key—black hides provide access to branded beef programs, such as Certified Angus Beef, that command harvest premiums. Although not every qualifying animal naturally achieves program standards. Recent processor data shows these programs can add substantial value at harvest.

Markets frequently pay several dollars per hundredweight more for black-hided groups, which can translate to roughly $100-200 per head on typical feeder weights. Feedlot managers consistently acknowledge this price impact.

Is this pricing structure optimal? Well… maybe not from a pure performance perspective. A Nebraska feedlot manager recently offered practical insight: “I understand a red Angus cross might perform equally well, but when I’m evaluating 300 head in 10 minutes, I rely on proven indicators.” Hard to argue with that logic. Until individual genetic data become standard for every calf, visual characteristics will continue to influence rapid market decisions.

A producer in South Dakota put it bluntly: “I don’t like that my red-hided calves bring less money. But I can complain about it, or I can breed black bulls and bank the difference. Guess which one pays better?”

***Industry Disruption in Real Time: How Dairy Operations Became America’s Fastest-Growing Beef Producers***

Anticipating Market Evolution

Looking ahead—and I’ve been through enough cycles to know this—current premium levels will moderate. The question isn’t whether adjustment occurs, but rather its timing and magnitude.

Early indicators already emerge. Industry reports suggest that beef-on-dairy breeding decreased slightly in 2024 as operations addressed concerns about heifer inventory. Improved pasture conditions across traditional beef regions may enable herd rebuilding, though this process typically requires multiple years. We’ve seen this before.

This development suggests something important, though. Economic modeling from UW-Madison indicates profitability generally holds when beef-on-dairy calves bring at least twice the value of straight Holstein bull calves, given common assumptions. That’s the key threshold right there.

Consider potential scenarios here. If beef prices decline to $700—that’s down from current highs—while Holstein bulls remain at $250, that still represents nearly three times the value. Well above that 2x profitability threshold. Using this guideline and common Holstein bull values of around $200, viability tends to weaken if beef cross-calf values fall below the mid-$400s. That’s probably your practical floor.

Practical Implementation for October 2025

For operations currently receiving $200 for Holstein bulls, here’s what I’d suggest as a measured approach to capturing available premiums.

This week: Contact three calf buyers—your current purchaser plus two specializing in beef crosses. Start with your local livestock auction markets, which often maintain buyer lists for specialty calves. Your county extension office can provide contacts for regional beef-cross buyers. Most AI companies now maintain buyer networks specifically for their beef-on-dairy customers, and the National Association of Animal Breeders offers a directory of approved calf buyers by region. Obtain specific pricing for the October delivery of 80-100 pound black crossbred calves. Understand health protocols, volume preferences, and payment terms. Many Holstein buyers don’t purchase beef-on-dairy calves, so confirming markets in advance prevents misalignment.

Next week: Identify 50-75 lower-tier breeding candidates. You know the ones—older animals that require multiple services, typically those in the bottom quartile of producers. Source proven, easy-calving Angus genetics with birth weight EPDs around -2.0 or better. Extension sources consistently recommend choosing these mainstream genetics over exotic alternatives for better market acceptance.

Week three: Calculate replacement needs precisely. A 500-cow operation typically requires 100-110 annual replacements, with some variation. Implement sexed dairy semen on superior genetics to ensure adequate replacements while allocating remaining breedings to beef. This balance is critical for long-term sustainability. And don’t forget to factor in your typical cull rates and any expansion plans you may have. Also worth considering is that many operations now insure higher-value calves for the first 30-60 days, typically costing $15-25 per head but protecting an investment of $ 1,000 or more.

This conservative approach—involving just 15% of your herd—could generate approximately $25,000 to $ 40,000 in additional annual revenue at current premium levels. That’s meaningful income without excessive risk concentration.

Strategic Lessons for Long-Term Success

What I think distinguishes operations that will thrive versus those facing challenges involves how they treat beef-cross revenue.

Successful producers I know use these premiums strategically—paying down debt, building reserves, addressing deferred maintenance while maintaining focus on sustainable milk production. They treat beef-cross income as a bonus, not a baseline. The operations at risk are restructuring entire business models around current calf values, taking on debt, and expanding facilities based on peak pricing.

Agricultural lenders commonly caution against structuring long-term debt service around peak calf prices. A banker friend in Minnesota captured this perfectly: “The dairy operations that worry me aren’t the ones doing beef-on-dairy. It’s the ones borrowing against $1,400 calves like that’s permanent. When markets moderate—and they always do—those fixed costs won’t adjust with them.”

This pattern echoes previous agricultural cycles, doesn’t it? The ethanol-driven corn boom rewarded producers who banked profits while challenging those who built operations around $7 corn. The organic milk premium cycle followed similar dynamics. A producer in Vermont who lived through the organic boom told me, “Same story, different product. The ones who survive are the ones who remember it’s a cycle.”

The Sustainable Future of Beef-on-Dairy

Despite inevitable market adjustments, several structural changes appear permanent. The efficiency of producing replacements from elite genetics, while maximizing terminal cross value, will not reverse simply because prices moderate. Established infrastructure—buyer networks, marketing channels, quality programs—will persist even as margins compress. And those documented performance advantages of crossbred cattle in feeding operations remain regardless of price levels.

For producers evaluating current opportunities, perspective matters. The exceptional margins of recent years won’t persist indefinitely—we all know that. However, even at more sustainable levels—perhaps $600-$ 800 per head—beef-on-dairy offers meaningful revenue diversification for operations prepared to manage the added complexity.

The opportunity window remains open, but it continues to narrow. Producers acting now with appropriate risk awareness can still capture value. Those awaiting perfect conditions will likely miss participation entirely.

A Nebraska dairyman recently offered a valuable perspective that resonates with me: “We accepted for 20 years that bull calves had negligible value. The only worthless element was that assumption itself.”

Sometimes significant opportunities exist in plain sight, waiting for the convergence of technology, market conditions, and strategic thinking to reveal their value. For dairy producers willing to thoughtfully evaluate and act on current conditions, beef-on-dairy represents exactly such an opportunity—one where understanding both potential and limitations determines success.

What farmers are finding is that this isn’t just about catching a market trend; it’s about cultivating a lasting relationship. It’s about fundamentally rethinking what each pregnancy on your farm represents. Whether you’re in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or anywhere in between, the beef-on-dairy opportunity is real. But it requires clear eyes about both the potential and the pitfalls. Those who approach it with measured optimism and conservative implementation will likely find success. That shift in thinking might be the most valuable change of all.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Start conservatively with 15% of your herd (50-75 lower-performing cows) to capture $25,000-$ 40,000 in additional annual revenue while maintaining operational flexibility. This approach minimizes risk and proves the concept works for your specific situation.
Secure buyers before breeding decisions by contacting local auction markets for specialty calf lists, your county extension office for regional beef-cross buyers, and AI company networks—many Holstein buyers don’t purchase crossbreds, so market confirmation prevents costly misalignment.
Target proven, easy-calving Angus genetics with birth weight EPDs around -2.0 or better, as extension sources consistently show mainstream black-hided genetics bring $100-200 premiums per head due to branded beef program access and feedlot preferences.
Calculate replacement needs precisely before expanding—a 500-cow operation typically requires 100-110 annual replacements, so implement sexed dairy semen on your top 30% while allocating bottom-tier cows to beef to maintain herd sustainability.
Treat beef-cross income as windfall profit, not baseline revenue—agricultural lenders caution that operations borrowing against $1,400 calf values face serious risk when markets moderate to the sustainable $600-800 range that economic models predict.

Complete references and supporting documentation are available upon request by contacting the editorial team at editor@thebullvine.com.

Learn More:

The Ultimate Guide to Finishing Beef-on-Dairy Calves for Maximum Returns – This guide reveals crucial best practices for the post-weaning phase, focusing on nutrition, health protocols, and facility management to boost feed efficiency and carcass quality, ensuring you capture maximum value from your calves at harvest.
Mastering Beef on Dairy Programs: Strategies for Thriving in an Uncertain Future – This strategic analysis provides a high-level perspective on long-term viability, outlining how to integrate a beef-on-dairy program with sustainable practices and risk management, positioning your operation to thrive through future market volatility.
Maximizing Dairy-Beef Potential: Grazing Strategies Boost Weight and Efficiency – A deep dive into innovative grazing strategies, this article demonstrates how to significantly reduce feedlot time and costs while improving average daily gain and overall calf health, adding another layer of profitability to your program.

The Sunday Read Dairy Professionals Don’t Skip.

Categories : Beef on Dairy

Tags : agricultural economics, beef on dairy, Breeding Strategy, Dairy Farm Profitability, farm efficiency, genetics, herd management

From Passion to Prestige: Bel Holstein’s Journey to Becoming a European Dairy Powerhouse

Tuesday, January 7th, 2025

Learn how Bel Holstein turned family love for cows into European dairy success. What hurdles did they overcome, and what’s their secret to thriving?

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1836149">E110 From Passion to Prestige: Bel Holstein’s Journey to Becoming a European Dairy Powerhouse</a>

Photo by Dominique Savary

In the beautiful landscapes of Italy, where old traditions meet new ideas, the story of Bel Holstein unfolds like a well-aged wine—rich and celebrated. It all started from humble beginnings, with three brothers, Mauro, Giuseppe, and Piero. Driven by youthful dreams and the wise advice of their father, Renato, they embarked on a remarkable journey. Inspired by their family’s deep roots in caring for animals, they began participating in Holstein shows in the late 1980s. What started as a small effort soon became a mission that pushed them to the top of European dairy farming. Mauro remembers, “Our first heifer impressed everyone back in 1987, and that moment sparked a dream,” highlighting the early ambitions and bold moves of those early years. Through hard work, careful breeding, and a strong focus on quality, Bel Holstein symbolizes pride in Italy’s farming history. This success shows their dedication—a mix of family passion and industry skill that continually shapes the future of Holstein farming. This story isn’t just about farming; it’s about preserving a legacy and ensuring that every cow, show, and sale is marked by excellence.

A New Dawn in Dairy: From Piemontese Traditions to Holstein Triumphs

Bel Holstein’s story begins with a family known for breeding cattle, specifically the local Piemontese breed. This breed was once used for dairy and beef but is now only used for beef. In the early 1980s, the family started breeding Holsteins, motivated by ambition and the excitement of winning in dairy farming.

This change came with challenges. Before the internet, the Bel family had to rely on magazines like the Holstein Journal to see the top cows from big contests like the Royal and WDE. Their efforts were driven by a genuine love for cattle and dreams of having a champion at the Cremona show, Italy’s top event for Holsteins.

1987, their hard work paid off when they entered their first official Holstein show. Their debut was impressive as a Chairman’s daughter won her class, proving their careful breeding and preparation were successful. This win not only put Bel Holstein on the map but also confirmed the family’s belief in balancing show participation with commercial potential, as suggested by Renato. This first triumph marked the beginning of their respected place in Holstein breeding.

Family Harmony: The Heartbeat of Bel Holstein’s Success

Mauro and daughter Greta Beltramino. (Photo Carl Saucier)

Bel Holstein’s story is a testament to the power of family, where everyone plays a crucial role in shaping the farm’s vision and executing its daily tasks. At its core are two brothers, not just passionate but also skilled, leading the farm into the future. One brother finds joy in working in the barn with the help of two workers and his daughter Greta, a sign of the new generation’s eagerness to learn. With assistance from his sons, Giulio, Paolo, and Andrea, the other brother manages the fields and the biogas plant, ensuring this vital part of the farm runs smoothly. Francesco, the eldest son, his girlfriend Chiara, and their cousin Cecilia take on the intricate task of clipping and fitting the cows—a skill passed down and improved each generation. This family’s dedication and love for their work are truly inspiring, serving as a beacon of hope for the future of dairy farming.

Francesco Beltramino clipping at WDE Madison

It’s about more than today; Giuseppe, though not involved in day-to-day farm work, still shares his experience and contacts from around the world, providing vital continuity and strong ideas. Even those who don’t work daily, like his hardworking wife Barbara and their youngest daughter Emma, contribute during shows and when there are barn visits. This teamwork, blending youthful energy and experienced guidance, reflects the farm’s mission: to strive for excellence in dairy farming, staying strong and hopeful as agriculture evolves.

Giuseppe Beltramino Judging at 2017 Italian National Show

Giuseppe Beltramino Judging at the 2017 Italian National Show

Triumphs on the Global Dairy Stage: Bel Holstein’s Legacy of Excellence

Bel Holstein has made a name for itself nationally and internationally with impressive achievements at significant events like the Cremona Show and the Swiss Expo. The 2004 Cremona Show was pivotal, where Bel Mtoto Diana was crowned Grand Champion. This win, the highest honor at the show, showcased Bel Holstein’s intense breeding and dedication. Al-Pe Doriana won the Reserve Grand Champion title, proving its strength in Italian dairy circles and making a mark with its continuous high performance.

Al-Pe Doriana became a symbol of success, achieving an EX97 classification, which boosted Bel Holstein’s reputation for quality and reliability—a sign of trust for future buyers and partners—Fast-forward to the 2017 Swiss Expo, where their skill was recognized internationally. Winning Junior Champions in the Red & White and Holstein categories, Reserve Grand Champion, and Honorable Mentions showed their strength beyond Italy.

These achievements are more than just trophies; they have helped Bel Holstein grow and increase their brand’s fame. As their reputation grew, so did their business opportunities, creating partnerships and entering new markets. These successes have made Bel Holstein a go-to name for international dairy colleagues and clients, all eager to connect with such a high-quality producer. Their commitment to developing champions ensures each show ring appearance catches the eye and sets up long-term success in dairy farming.

Resilient Roots: Navigating the Cycles of Dairy Farming with Bel Holstein

The dairy industry is fraught with surprises and difficulties that can test even the most experienced farmers. Bel Holstein’s ability to adapt and remain steadfast has seen them through these challenges. Over the years, they have navigated economic troubles, fluctuating milk prices, new technology, and rule changes. Yet, their approach has remained optimistic but cautious, blending hope with strategic planning. This resilience is a testament to their commitment to the industry and confidence in weathering any storm.

When dealing with the ups and downs of dairy farming, Bel Holstein stays calm, not letting good or bad times affect their plans too much. This mindset is evident in their daily work and their plans for the future. They can adjust by using family and community support and trying new ideas, showing they understand how the industry changes.

Du Bon Vent Inkapi EX-97-IT
Brawler x VG-85 Knowledge x Du Bon Vent Epopee VG-89-FR
Res. Sr. Champion & HM. Grand Champion Montichiari 2019
Grand Champion Verona Dairy Show 2022

Their success partly comes from watching industry trends while staying true to their traditional values. By building strong connections within their community and industry, Bel Holstein has shared and learned knowledge that helps them stay strong. This network, which includes other farmers, industry experts, and local authorities, also supports them during more considerable industry changes or local problems, like seasonal diseases or changing consumer habits.

At the heart of Bel Holstein’s strength is their profound love for what they do. They are patient and determined, going above and beyond their daily tasks. They understand the importance of consistently caring for their cows, ensuring their health and productivity despite external pressures. This level of dedication is not just admirable. Still, it also sets a high standard for others in the dairy community, fostering a culture of respect and appreciation for the animals at the core of their livelihood.

The Art of Balance: Breeding for Beauty and Productivity at Bel Holstein

Bel Holstein’s breeding strategy is about creating beautiful and productive cows. This involves picking bulls that improve udders without going to extremes in production and type. By avoiding extreme traits, Bel Holstein keeps a herd that works well and looks good. They believe preparation for shows starts at birth, giving early care to calves so they perform well in milk production or the show ring. Their herd classification proves the success of their strategy, with 15 cows rated Excellent (EX) and 59 Very Good (VG), showing their focus on improving genetics and managing livestock.

Bel Holstein is committed to balancing beauty with efficiency. They carefully pick bulls that enhance milk yield and cow shape. These bulls are chosen not for extreme production but for improving udder quality, which is crucial for a cow’s lifespan and productivity. However, there’s a challenge with excessive height, which can look impressive in shows but cause management issues.

Finding this balance requires planning and continuous effort. By keeping a herd that shows ideal Holstein traits without losing function, Bel Holstein shows its dedication to careful breeding practices. By avoiding too much focus on height traits, they ensure the herd stays healthy and practical, keeping beauty and productivity together without one outshining the other.

Embracing the Human Element: Bel Holstein’s Commitment to Tradition in a Technological Age

While technology is changing dairy farming, Bel Holstein shows the value of traditional methods. While many farms use machines for milking and feeding, Bel Holstein relies on the skills gathered over many years.

The choice to avoid advanced technology isn’t because technology is bad but because of the special connection between farmer and cow. Machines often need help to replace this connection. This approach emphasizes a key idea: human passion is key to excellence.

Understanding animal behavior can be as insightful as using any digital tool. Bel Holstein believes machines can only replace the expertise gained from years of hands-on experience. This helps them effectively care for their cows and meet their needs with great understanding.

At Bel Holstein, focusing on observing and engaging with the herd is central to their success. By sticking to these methods, they keep their herd healthy and productive. This shows that even in a high-tech world, human involvement is crucial for success in dairy farming.

𝐁𝐞𝐥 𝐁𝐚𝐠𝟐 𝐓𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐆𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐚 𝐕𝐆𝟖𝟔 – A promising 1st calf from the family of the one and only 𝐷𝑢 𝐵𝑜𝑛 𝑉𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑘𝑎𝑝𝑖 𝐸𝑋97!!

Bridging Tradition with Innovation: Bel Holstein’s Vision in the Evolving Italian Dairy Landscape

Bel Holstein stands firm at the crossroads of tradition and innovation in Italy’s dairy industry. The family is focused on a future where they can return to international events. These beloved fairs and shows provide more than competition; they offer essential networking and business opportunities. For Bel Holstein, visibility and reputation at these events highlight their exceptional breeding skills and excellent care practices.

Bel Holstein’s goals extend beyond the show rings. In Italy, with its varied approaches to dairy farming, the farm envisions a future where both large operations and small farms prosper. This vision depends on adding value to each operation. Whether through direct milk product sales or enhancing their livestock and genetics, Bel Holstein is committed.

It is key to maintaining their strong genetic portfolio. Bel Holstein breeds for both beauty and productivity, ensuring they meet the needs of local and international markets. Their dedication to improving their herd makes them a top contender in the dairy world.

Bel Holstein also wants to strengthen ties with the global dairy community. New collaborations and learning opportunities will emerge as travel and events normalize post-pandemic. The family values knowledge from other respected breeders and sees this as a chance for shared growth and success.

Bel Holstein blends tradition with ambition, valuing past practices while exploring new paths. Their lasting impact on dairy farming is not just based on past successes but also on a forward-thinking approach that embraces local traditions and global progress.

𝐁𝐞𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐄𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐄𝐗𝟗𝟐, 3rd lactation 4 years old, in her working clothes! Esterina is a Chief granddaughter of 𝑃𝑜𝑧𝑜𝑠𝑎𝑎 𝐺𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑤𝑦𝑛 𝑆𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑎 𝐸𝑋94. Owned with Bag2 & All.Nure

Bold Aspirations and Formidable Resilience: Navigating Bel Holstein’s Future in Dairy Farming

Bel Holstein is looking towards the future with the same ambition that’s marked its past successes. Though it has faced global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and regional issues like the Blue Tongue disease, these experiences have only strengthened its resolve. It is eager to return to international shows and fairs, which will help it showcase its cattle and build essential business relationships. As these events happen regularly again, Bel Holstein aims to cement and grow its presence globally, showcasing cattle that excel in looks and production.

Bel Holstein sees a bright future for dairy farming in Italy, with room for both large and small farms. Their focus is on adding value through high-quality genetics and excellent animals. By selling milk and their herd’s genetics, they stick to a model that values direct sales and show-quality animals. This approach helps them stay competitive in changing industry trends.

For Bel Holstein, innovation isn’t just about new technology. It’s also about quality human interaction and skilled work. By maintaining their herd quality and engaging with the dairy community locally and internationally, they’re ready to adapt to the changing dairy landscape. They fine-tune their unique selling points, balancing tradition with modern farming needs. This strategy helps Bel Holstein stand out for sustainability, quality, and excellence in the Italian dairy sector and inspires their commitment to progress.

𝐁𝐞𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐆𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐕𝐆𝟖𝟕

Guiding Stars: Mentorship and Legacy at Bel Holstein

Mentorship has been crucial in shaping Bel Holstein’s journey, supporting its success, and encouraging new ideas. In their early years, Farm Alpag in Alessandria had a significant influence. Led by Luigi Manfredini, known for his attention to detail in show preparations, the Bel Holstein team learned the art of showing dairy cattle. These lessons in precision and dedication continue to guide their high standards today.

Their talks with experts like Donald Dubois also provided valuable insights. Dubois was a respected figure in the industry, moving from fitter to judge. The Bel Holstein team admired his skills and dedication, which matched their values. His example highlighted the importance of expertise in every role, shaping their approach to caring for their cattle and the farm’s legacy.

𝐉𝐀𝐂𝐎𝐁𝐒 𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐆𝐀𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐁𝐀𝐕𝐀𝐑𝐈𝐀 𝐕𝐆𝟖𝟕 Bavaria is an Alligator, daughter of JACOBS HIGH OCTANE BABE EX96 that Bel Holsteins owns with Ferme Jacobs, Elmvue Farms and Cioli Farms!

Today, Ferme Jacobs is admired for its success in showings and farm operations. Their mix of new ideas and traditional values inspires Bel Holstein to achieve a similar balance of beauty and productivity. This effort aims not just for awards but also to improve their herd and farming practices.

These mentors and herds teach Bel Holstein to respect tradition, embrace innovation, and strive for quality. Their lessons are reflected in daily work, from the barn to the field and on international stages, forming a legacy built on inspiration and hard work.

Navigating the Twin Pillars of Success in Dairy Showmanship and Sales

Aspiring dairy cattle breeders starting their journey in the busy world of cattle showing and marketing should listen to advice from years of hands-on experience. The key to success lies in showing and selling skills. These two aspects work together and are vital for your reputation and business.

First, be ready to sell even your best animals. Keeping a flexible inventory is essential for your business and reputation. If a buyer offers a reasonable price, taking it can lead to good relationships and financial success. Each sale helps build your name in the industry.

It’s also important that your show successes lead to broader recognition. Winning in the show ring is excellent, but the real work is ensuring your animals impress outside the ring, too. Every detail is essential, from preparation before the event to how your cattle look throughout the show. Please keep them in top condition so everyone, from other breeders to potential buyers, is impressed by their quality. This approach will strengthen your reputation and expand your influence in the dairy world, establishing you as a dedicated and skilled breeder.

BEL BYWAY CASHMERE EX 93 3*, Cashmere is a 5 years old Byway out of Du Bon Vent Inkapi EX97

Showcasing Excellence: Bel Holstein’s Global Dairy Impact Through Shows and Social Media

Shows have been crucial for Bel Holstein, highlighting their top-notch breeding skills and strengthening their reputation worldwide. Events like the Swiss Expo and the Cremona show have given them immediate attention from breeders, buyers, judges, and a wider audience through digital connections. These shows display Bel Holstein’s excellent cattle pedigree and preparation and reflect the expertise and commitment at the heart of their success.

Social media has made this impact even bigger, turning these events into ongoing stories with real-time updates. Platforms like Instagram and Facebook allow Bel Holstein to share live events, stunning pictures of their award-winning cattle, and interesting stories that draw international audiences. This online presence helps them reach potential buyers and fans who might not know about them otherwise.

Additionally, the personal connections made at these shows, where people share a passion for top-quality dairy cattle, often lead to lasting partnerships. These relationships go beyond simple transactions, creating networks that connect breeders, sellers, and global partners. These connections offer markets for cattle and shared knowledge and innovation, which are key to growing in a changing global dairy market.

Ultimately, combining in-person showmanship with innovative social media use has boosted Bel Holstein’s profile, making it more marketable in a competitive field and strengthening relationships that enhance its business reach far beyond Italy’s borders.

From L to R：Bel Boeing Gondola VG87 EX MS 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐶𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑎 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑦 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤 2023, 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤 2023 – Bel Hotline Georgia VG86 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑠𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜 2024 – Bel Chief Guendalina VG86 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑠𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜 2024 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐶𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑎 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤 2023 𝐻𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐽𝐶 𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤 2023

The Bottom Line

Bel Holstein has led Holstein breeding from humble beginnings on their family farm. Their journey shows the impact of passion, dedication, and a drive for excellence. With success at international shows and strong values, Bel Holstein offers essential lessons in perseverance and adaptation.

Their story highlights the balance between traditional methods and modern innovation and the role of the family in building success. Bel Holstein excels in careful care and imaginative breeding, demonstrating the global reach of good marketing and participation in shows and online.

As dairy farming changes, Bel Holstein reminds us that success relies on strong foundations of passion and commitment. Their legacy challenges us to consider how our goals can help shape the future of dairy farming. Tradition and progress will work together in the future, powered by a commitment to quality and excellence.

Key Takeaways:

Bel Holstein’s origin story is deeply rooted in family traditions, evolving from a predominantly Piemontese background to becoming a notable Holstein breeder.
Key family members contribute distinct roles, from barn management and fieldwork to show preparations and strategic business development.
Significant accomplishments include notable show victories and the development of high-ranking cows, providing substantial social proof within the industry.
Bel Holstein’s breeding strategy emphasizes a balance of beauty and productivity, focusing on udder improvement while avoiding extreme traits.
The farm adopts a traditional approach to operations, valuing hands-on work and animal care over technological solutions.
Future aspirations include expanding international recognition through participation in significant events and leveraging diversifying opportunities in the dairy industry.
Mentorship and learning from acclaimed breeders have been pivotal in shaping Bel Holstein’s breeding and show strategies.
Shows serve as a crucial platform for marketing and enhancing global recognition, with the added benefit of social media exposure.

Summary:

Bel Holstein is an Italian family-owned dairy farm that started in the late 1980s, driven by the passion of three brothers, Mauro, Giuseppe, and Piero, inspired by their father’s love for cattle. Today, it’s a leader in European dairy farming, focusing on breeding beautiful and productive cows. Despite challenges like COVID-19 and Blue Tongue disease, the farm remains dedicated to blending tradition with innovation in Italy’s dairy industry, adding value through direct milk product sales and enhancing livestock genetics. They aim to succeed by continuing their presence at international shows and fairs, all while ensuring quality and sustainability in the sector.

Learn more:

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Categories : Breeder Profiles

Tags : Bel Holstein, blue tongue disease, Breeding Strategy, business relationships, COVID-19 impact, Dairy Industry, direct milk product sales, European dairy farming, excellence, family-owned, global dairy community, Holstein shows, international shows, Italian dairy farm, livestock genetics, productive cows, quality, sustainability, tradition and innovation

Gary Bowers: Commitment to the Dairy Industry Driven, yet Humble and Grateful

Thursday, September 26th, 2024

Discover how Gary Bowers’ passion and innovation transformed Lencrest Jerseys and impacted global dairy farming.

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1673411">E 12 – Gary Bowers: Commitment to the Dairy Industry Driven, yet Humble and Grateful</a>

In the vast world of dairy farming, success often results from hard work, dedication, and innovation. Gary Bowers of Lencrest Jerseys stands out, not for seeking attention, but for his modesty and letting his work speak for itself. From his early days with Lorne Ella at Rock Ella Jerseys to managing Ferme Bovi-Lact for George Despatie to the start-up of Lencrest Jerseys with a mere 17.08 kgs/fat/day of milk quota to completing a recent succession transfer to his daughter Melissa Bowers and son-in-law Philip Aitken of Lencrest de la Vallee currently operating with more than 170 kgs/fat/day of milk quota, Gary’s story is a testament to the power of endurance and a genuine passion for the art, science and business of dairy farming. Throughout 40 years, Gary has made specific and significant contributions to various levels of industry organizations, including a transformative role on the Semex Alliance Board, thereby leaving an indelible mark on the industry.

From the Fields of Milby

From a very young age, Gary’s passion for dairy cattle and the industry was kindled at his grandfather’s Guernsey farm in the Eastern Townships of Quebec. He fondly remembers helping his Dad and Grandpa and could easily recall the names of many cows in the barn. His most cherished memory was going to get the cows with his Nana. However, a day that remains etched in his memory is when his Grandpa’s farm was sold to what is now the Milby Golf Course, as his father chose a different career path when Gary was just six years old. These early experiences, though challenging, profoundly impacted Gary and fueled his determination to return to the dairy industry, which would shape his career. Gary often reflects that his passion for farming began at a young age. That true knowledge comes from a willingness to learn from others. In his teens, he gained a wealth of knowledge about farming and hard work from the Township’s Jersey breeders, including Ross Powell of Broadvista Jerseys, Warren Ross’s Ayshires, and Keith McDonald at Bonnyburn Jersey Farm.

Mentorship and Milestones

Within a few years, Gary journeyed to Ontario, where he had significant experiences with Bruce Mode at Bonnie Brae Ayrshires. Gary regards Bruce as one of the most skilled cowmen he has ever known. Sean McMahon of Shamrock Farms, not only his father-in-law but also a mentor, played a pivotal role in Gary’s life. Gary was fortunate to have Sean in his life for 20 years before his unexpected passing in 2003. “Sean and I could talk for hours about pedigrees, bulls, and the industry’s needs. We didn’t always see eye to eye, but we always found common ground in our love for farming and the Jersey cow.”

At the Rock Ella Review Sale, Gary made his first Jersey purchase, Rich Valley M Gem Velvet Velvet. This sale marked the end of a memorable period spent living and working with Lorne and his family. During this time, Gary honed his cattle fitting abilities, animal healthcare, understanding of pedigrees, and fieldwork.

From Rock Ella to Ferme Bovi-Lact in Quebec, Gary then spent ten years managing a Jersey herd for owner George Despatie. In the early days at Bovi-Lact, Gary worked alongside Lloyd Fanjoy (Heaven Hill). “Lloyd was such a cowman, the person who really taught me how to feed and care for calves,” Gary noted. Gary’s leadership enabled Bovi-Lact to become a leader in Jersey circles, including Grand Champion Cow and Premier Exhibitor at the Royal Winter Fair in 1985. “I am also proud to have led 6 Grand Champions at the Royal Winter Fair for family and a friend.” During those years, Gary collaborated with international marketing firms to sell and transport premium Jersey cattle to Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina’s developing markets. Gary exhibited at numerous local dairy shows as he started to promote the Jersey breed in his home province of Quebec, hoping to grow the herd numbers within that province.

Recognition and Integrity in Judging

As an official judge for Jerseys and Holsteins, Gary’s extensive experience is a testament to his comprehensive understanding of the subject and unwavering honesty in dairy cow appraisal. Over time, Gary has established a reputation for being a straightforward and fair judge of the animals presented in the ring. He has judged numerous local, provincial, and national shows, including the Royal Jersey Show in Toronto and many International dairy shows in South Africa, Japan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Columbia, and many state shows in the United States. Gary was called upon to judge colored breeds and Holsteins and could provide reasons in English and French.

Gary’s involvement as an Associate judge for Ayrshires at the World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wisconsin, with his close friend, Dave Wallace, was a watershed moment in his judging career. Walking on the colored shavings of such a well-known show cemented Gary’s name in the judging circles.

In Australia, The Royal Easter Show’s innovative requirement for judges to show ranks for the Supreme Champion classes on a board and offer thorough explanations for their selections deeply impacted Gary. He firmly believes in this transparent system as it ensures accountability while limiting political influence. Gary’s perspective is based on the ideals of clarity and responsibility. He thinks that every judge must be willing to freely explain and defend their findings to preserve the process’s integrity and create confidence among breeders and exhibitors. Gary has raised the bar in the world of dairy judging by constantly recognizing and rewarding animal excellence fairly and openly, reassuring the audience about the fairness of the industry.

Friendship & Sales Management

Gary was also deeply involved in sales management for consignment sales like the Royal Jersey Sale and herd dispersals such as Norval Acres, Piedmont, and Shamrock. He worked closely with the late David “Butch” Crack, an infamous auctioneer, as well as a lifelong friend, the late Richard Caverly. “Richard was a humble, hardworking, and knowledgeable cowman. We traveled to many North and South American dairy shows together, a true friend and mentor to youth in agriculture. I think we shared a bond we shared: his commitment to youth, his exceptional work ethic, and his love of great cows.”

It cannot go without saying that Gary’s business mentorship came from the owner of Ferme Bovi-Lact, George Despatie. George was a successful businessman and visionary in Montreal, Quebec. George led the way for Gary in industry involvement and change through leadership as an influential Jersey Canada Board member and President in his own right. George’s business and financial insight guided Gary’s early years in business management. During his time with Ferme Bovi-Lact, Gary began as a director in Jersey, Quebec (span of 24 years) and Jersey, Canada (9 years), where he served as President from 2000-2001.

Roles Beyond Jerseys

Further to his roles on the Jersey Quebec and Jersey Canada Boards of Directors, Gary Bowers continued his involvement in the dairy cattle improvement industry with roles on many Boards of Directors and committees. These included the Quebec Dairy Breeds Council (CQRL-14 years), the CIAQ AI Centre (15 years), the Semex Alliance (14 years), the Canadian Dairy Network(10 years), and the Dairy Farmers of Canada (5 years). In early 2000, Gary played a key role in establishing the Multi-Breed Classification Program in 2005. This program offered by Holstein Canada is an essential tool in evaluating dairy cattle.

During his early tenure on the Semex Board, decisions were made to bring about a seismic change to the Semex management team with the engagement of Paul Larmer as the new CEO in 2007. This shift ushered in a period of advancement that indelibly impacted the worldwide AI business. Gary was a part of the board at the Semex Alliance, serving two terms as President, who worked diligently through introductions to genomics, sexed semen, IVF, and streamlined efficiencies in bull housing. Semex worked to become a leading solutions-based genetics company, a world leader with increased market share and a solid reputation for Canadian genetics.

“Gary’s contribution to Semex’s success is important, as he helped develop and support the goal of Semex being a worldwide leader. He embraced and promoted fact-based risk while highlighting opportunities for improvement. Gary never allowed himself or others to accept the status quo. Instead, he supported change where and when it was required. This earned him the tremendous trust and respect he deserves,” says Semex’s Paul Larmer.

Bowers’ position on the Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) board demonstrated his expertise in genetics and drive for improvement. Genomic evaluations for males and females were introduced during this time, and the Pro$ index was created. Near the end of Gary’s tenure, he laid the groundwork for the eventual merger of CDN, Can-West DHI, and Valacta, bringing DairyTrace into the fold under one umbrella known as Lactanet today.

His participation on the Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) board demonstrated his dedication to the dairy industry. Bowers was named to the ProThe action committee and worked on specifics for animal welfare, biosecurity, traceability, and environmental stewardship. This level of involvement was amongst breeders, processors, industry leaders, and politicians. The goal was always to move towards a sustainable Canadian dairy industry.

In 2024, Gary was honored to receive the Dairy Industry Distinction Award from Lactanet.

Breeding Strategy: Blending Tradition with Innovation

Gary Bowers’ breeding strategy combines conventional dairy excellence with cutting-edge genetic innovations. Over the years, he has expertly blended the traits of high-quality show cows with the economically advantageous features necessary for increased milk production. Early in his career, Gary concentrated on raising cows that could compete and stand out at shows. This emphasis on show-type cows resulted in several awards and a thorough grasp of what made a cow a top contender. Recognizing the changing needs of the dairy business, Gary modified his breeding approach in the early 2000s to focus on improved production and herd longevity. This change was necessary partly due to the shift in the live cattle market with BSE in 2003 and the demands for a financial balance sheet that had long-term stability. During this time, Gary also increased his active promotion of the Jersey breed within the province of Quebec through commercializing Jersey animals, whether Lencrest or others. Gary always wanted cows to do well and perform for others and often mentored and advised those new to the Jersey breed. This approach was suitable for both the breed and the domestic market. This grassroots work remains vital to Gary as the front line of the dairy industry is the dairy farm and its people.

Gary invested strategically in a Duncan Belle granddaughter, Piedmont Declo Belle EX94 22*, dam of Lencrest Blackstone and Lencrest On Time. Declo Belle produced 38 offspring for Lencrest. This brood cow was a long-standing #1LPI cow in Canada and Intermediate Champion at the Royal Winter Fair and All-Canadian Junior 3 in 2003.

Another key investment was the granddaughter of JIF Little Minnie EX96 4E 12*, a two-time Royal Champion. This granddaughter, Select-Scott Salty Cocochanel EX94, was also an All-Canadian Junior two-year-old. Descendants of Cocochanel have the biggest influence in the herd today, with names such as Lencrest Cocopuff EX93-3 E 4* and some of her sons including Lencrest Artemis, Lencrest Caspian, Lencrest Broadband-P and Lencrest Contour. Lencrest Cocopuff was an 18-time # 1 GLPI cow in Canada. Cocopuff’s granddaughters hold the current #1 GPA LPI position in Canada for heifers under nine months of age and the current #1, 2 & 6 position in Canada for heifers over nine months of age.

The investment in another maternal line of Responses Farren, Hauptre Blair Famous, stands out in today’s herd with Lencrest Premier Farren, dam of the bull Lencrest TobeFamous.

Gary expressed the need for balanced breeding, production, and type, a total concept approach in which high genetic index, such as the LPI (Lifetime Performance Index) and Pro$ (a measure of genetic merit for profitability), are examined alongside robust type features. TODAY – of the Top 50 Jersey Heifers over nine months for GPA LPI – 38% of them are either of Lencrest prefix, sired by a Lencrest bull, or have a Lencrest maternal grand-sire.

Paving the Path to Technological Advancement

With the development of a succession plan, Gary knew the original home farm of Lencrest would not meet the needs for growth to a herd size that would match trends for viability in the growing dairy economy. A nearby farm with a greater quota base and building infrastructure that could support a shift to robotic milking without investing in brand-new facilities was acquired. Again, the key was to innovate and grow in the most efficient way possible for his family’s business needs. Gary Bowers has always been a visionary in the dairy sector, looking for ways to enhance efficiency and output via technical innovations.

Robotic milking systems are one of the most noteworthy technical advancements. Gary, Maureen, daughter Melissa, and son-in-law Phillip saw the need for change in their operation. They welcomed this new technology to ensure the long-term viability of their dairy operation. This technology, along with regular quota purchases, has allowed for the development of the herd size without extensive labor needs, all while improving efficiency in herd management, milk quality, and financials.

Phillip’s technological knowledge is critical for developing and maintaining the robotic systems and on-farm reporting. His experience with GPS systems and precision agricultural equipment has been essential.

Melissa’s expertise in genetics, on-farm technologies, and business brings innovation and continues to drive the Lencrest breeding program. These factors result in the ultimate and necessary goal of economic viability. This joint effort among family members demonstrates how adopting technology may result in substantial breakthroughs and operational success in contemporary dairy farming.

Words of Wisdom

Gary Bowers offers some wise words for young individuals entering the dairy sector. He argues that knowing the industry is vital. Gary elaborates, “It is important to know domestic markets and understand the global milk industry. My travels abroad helped me to understand not only elements linked to breeding and genetics but also to the global milk economy. You need to know where your milk’s going and be aware of the entire ecosystem that supports dairy farming.”

Financial knowledge is another critical component of success. Gary pushes for a good company strategy that includes thorough financial plans. He feels that understanding economic systems is essential to guaranteeing long-term profitability and resilience, particularly given the volatility of agricultural markets. “You have to be astute in business and know how to manage your finances, investments, and operational costs,” Gary tells The Bullvine.

Gary’s advice, however, places a significant emphasis on enthusiasm. “You need a genuine love for dairy farming to sustain the demanding workload and overcome inevitable challenges,” he says. This enthusiasm feeds everyday operations and promotes continual learning and innovation, assuring the farm’s growth and success.

Gary’s thoughts provide a road map for young individuals joining the dairy sector. He urges students to be well-rounded professionals equally comfortable with financial spreadsheets, milking systems, and cow comfort/care while cultivating a great passion for their work. “Without passion, the hours are too many, and the work is too hard,” he continues, emphasizing the significance of putting one’s heart into the operation and the sector.

The Bottom Line

Gary Bowers’ experience in the dairy business exemplifies the power of devotion, ingenuity, and an unwavering pursuit of improvement. Gary has continually exemplified what it means to lead by example, beginning on his grandfather’s Guernsey farm and culminating in his crucial role in modernizing industry boards of directors. Gary’s efforts for the Jersey cattle sector resonate across continents, demonstrating his worldwide significance. His foresight in using robotic milking and his approach to farming have taken Lencrest Jerseys to new heights, demonstrating the value of combining tradition and innovation. The Bowers Family’s ongoing dedication to dairy excellence exemplifies the qualities Gary exhibited — hard labor, creativity, and a genuine enthusiasm for the sector.

Through all these connected experiences within the dairy industry, Gary is mostly grateful for the people he has met and collaborated with, including industry professionals and the many hardworking dairy cattle breeders across the Canadian landscape and worldwide.

Key Takeaways:

Gary Bowers’ journey epitomizes dedication and passion in the dairy farming industry, from his early days on his grandfather’s farm to modernizing industry boards.
His mentorship by prominent figures in dairy farming helped him accumulate vast knowledge and experience, which he later applied to his multiple roles and awards.
Gary’s career includes significant contributions to the Jersey breed, international judging assignments, and influential roles within industry organizations.
Under Gary’s leadership, Lencrest Jerseys transitioned from a small operation to a thriving, technologically advanced dairy farm, now managed by his family.
His balanced approach to breeding, combining show-quality traits with productive features, helped elevate the Jersey breed’s standards in Canada.
Gary’s work at Semex Alliance, including introducing genomics and sexed semen, significantly impacted the global AI industry.
His financial acumen, strategic mindset, and embracing of technological innovations ensured the long-term sustainability and economic viability of Lencrest Jerseys.
Gary’s advice to newcomers stresses the importance of financial knowledge, global market awareness, and a deep passion for dairy farming to achieve success.

Summary:

Gary Bowers’ story is one of dedication, innovation, and resilience in the expansive realm of dairy farming. Gary exemplifies commitment without seeking the limelight from his humble beginnings at his grandfather’s farm to his significant influence on industry organizations such as the Semex Alliance Board. His work at Lencrest Jerseys—starting from just 17.08 kgs/fat/day of milk quota and growing to over 170 kgs/fat/day—reflects his unrelenting passion and strategic vision. The success of Gary’s endeavors extends to the recent succession of the farm to his daughter Melissa and son-in-law Philip, ensuring a legacy of excellence in the dairy industry. Over the past 40 years, Gary has judged numerous local, provincial, and national shows, promoting the power of endurance, dedication, and innovation. His breeding strategy at Lencrest blends high-quality show cows with economically advantageous features for increased milk production. Gary emphasizes the need for balanced breeding, production, and type, with 38% of the Top 50 Jersey Heifers over nine months being either of the Lencrest prefix, sired by a Lencrest bull, or having a Lencrest maternal grand-sire.

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Categories : Breeder Profiles

Tags : Breeding Strategy, dairy excellence, dairy farmer, dairy industry contributions, Gary Bowers, international dairy shows, Jersey cattle, premium Jersey cattle, robotic milking systems

Heifer Shortage Crisis: Why Dairy Farmers Are Struggling Despite Soaring Milk Prices

Monday, August 19th, 2024

Uncover the surprising reasons behind the heifer shortage hitting dairy farmers hard, even as milk prices soar. Will they be able to solve this issue and expand their herds? Find out more.

Milk prices are at their highest in years, but dairy producers face an unanticipated catastrophe. It feels like a contradiction. Despite good on-farm margins and lower feed costs, dairy farmers face a huge challenge: a severe shortage of heifers and young cows for future milk production. This shortfall is more than a mere inconvenience; it alters dairy producers’ plans and choices throughout the country. The market has been delivering a clear message: produce more milk. But what can farmers do when the appropriate livestock are not available? In the following parts, we’ll examine the causes of the heifer scarcity, its influence on the dairy business, and whether current high prices can reverse the situation.

Month	Heifers Sent to Beef Packinghouses (thousands)	Average Price per Heifer ($)	Milk Yield Trend (compared to previous year)
September 2023	28.6	2,950	Stable
December 2023	25.4	3,000	Stable
March 2024	23.1	3,200	Slight Decrease
June 2024	21.1	3,300	Decrease
July 2024	20.7	3,350	Decrease

Economic Highs and the Surprising Heifer Dilemma: What’s Holding Dairy Farmers Back?

Dairy producers are enjoying some of the most favorable economic circumstances in years. Lower feed costs and predictable milk profits enable farmers to pay off debt and save for the future. This stability has arrived at a critical moment, providing a much-needed cushion against previous financial strains.

But it does not end there. The market is indicating that it’s time to increase the milk supply. The temptation to produce more milk is straightforward, with prices hovering around $20 per hundredweight. Farmers are prepared and eager to satisfy this demand, but a significant impediment is the heifer scarcity.

Scarcity Strikes: How the Heifer Shortage is Undermining Dairy’s Economic Boom

The heifer shortage has struck the dairy sector hard, challenging the momentum of recent economic highs. This shortfall has worsened since September when dairy companies looking to increase their herds encountered a shortage of heifers. The shortage caused them to rethink their strategy: fewer cows were transferred to beef packinghouses, and less productive milk cows were retained longer than usual.

This shift is evident in the stark numbers: from September 2023 to June 2024, dairy farmers sent 286,100 fewer milk cows to beef packinghouses than the previous year. Initially, this technique seemed practical since U.S. milk output stayed consistent throughout the autumn and winter. However, the consequences have now become apparent.

The most recent Milk Production report reveals milk yields at or below year-ago levels in two-thirds of the 24 central dairy states, including areas unaffected by exceptional weather circumstances. This pattern highlights heifers’ crucial role in maintaining and increasing milk output. The lack of heifers and the dependence on less productive cows are already noticeably lowering milk output, posing a challenge for farmers looking to capitalize on good economic circumstances.

Rising Heifer Prices Aren’t Just a Headline: The Operational Burden for Dairy Farmers

Year	Heifer Price (per head)
2018	$1,500
2019	$1,750
2020	$2,000
2021	$2,200
2022	$2,500
2023	$2,800
2024	$3,075

Rising heifer prices are more than just a headline; they are a significant issue for many in the dairy business. Last week, the top 25 springers sold for between $3,000 and $3,300 per head at the monthly auction in Pipestone, Minnesota. It wasn’t simply a regional increase; top-quality Holstein springers averaged $3,075 at the monthly video auction in Turlock, California. These statistics are startling when considering how they will affect your operation’s finances.

Imagine planning a herd expansion only to discover that heifers suddenly cost thousands more than expected. The financial hardship is confirmed. Higher heifer prices raise starting expenses, forcing many companies to reconsider their breeding strategy or postpone growth plans entirely. Although milk sales remain stable, rising expenditures make it difficult to invest for the future or pay off debt.

With beef prices high, many people turn to hybrid dairy-beef calves for a more immediate cash source. This technique provides a faster financial return but needs to address the long-term need of keeping a healthy milking herd. It’s a difficult decision: spend substantially now with uncertain future profits or capitalize on the present meat market for faster gains.

The problem is more than statistics; it is about planning for sustainability in a volatile business. Your ability to handle these complex dynamics will influence the future of your operations, so it is vital to be aware and adaptive.

Why Are Dairy Producers Leaning Towards Crossbred Dairy-Beef Calves?

Why do dairy farmers choose crossbred beef calves over conventional dairy heifer ones? The solution rests in irresistible economic incentives. Crossbred calves may provide more immediate cash, frequently commanding $200 to $400 more than purebred Holsteins. This quick income is a game changer for dairy producers wanting to secure their finances in an ever-changing market.

However, the value of dairy heifers remains variable. Investing resources in growing replacement calves is a long-term risk, with no certainty that these heifers will be worth the high price when ready to join the milking herds. In contrast, revenue from beef calves is immediate and guaranteed, making it a less hazardous and more tempting choice for farmers. The quick financial gain from beef calves helps dairy producers navigate a volatile sector, maintaining a consistent revenue stream even when prices move.

Traditional Breeding Battles Modern Economics: A Minority’s Approach to Sustaining Heifer Supplies

Surprisingly, a small number of dairy farmers are adopting a more conventional strategy for breeding, focused on maintaining appropriate heifer headcounts to support their herds. These farmers recognize the long-term importance of a consistent supply of replacement heifers, even if it means preceding some immediate revenue from crossbred dairy beef calves. However, these changes are minor enough to reduce the overall heifer shortfall significantly. The financial incentives for generating crossbred calves are too appealing, causing most dairy producers to prefer quick, consistent revenue above long-term profits. As a result, even those who return to conventional breeding need to produce more heifers to alter total heifer availability. This circumstance exacerbates the current shortage, highlighting the intricate economic calculations dairy farmers must make in a volatile business.

Future Focus: Will Short-Term Gains Trump Long-Term Stability in Dairy Farming?

The present breeding practices and prolonged heifer deficit are expected to have long-term consequences for the dairy business. These trends pose severe concerns regarding the sustainability and efficiency of dairy production. Will the quick profitability from crossbred dairy-beef calves balance the long-term advantages of ensuring enough heifer supplies? This problem has the potential to influence breeding methods significantly.

Due to present economic incentives, dairy farmers progressively leaning toward crossbreeding may see their choice becoming a standard practice. The guaranteed income from cattle calves offers a lifeline in an unstable industry. However, this change may accidentally diminish the total dairy cow herd, reducing milk production capacity and increasing reliance on shifting market circumstances for beef.

Suppose heifer prices remain low to encourage a return to conventional breeding. In that case, the business may progressively migrate toward farms specializing in beef-dairy hybrids. This trend may cause dairy farm operations to prioritize short-term profitability over long-term herd growth, thereby changing the farming environment.

Furthermore, dairy producers that oppose this tendency and continue with conventional breeding may find themselves in a unique situation. If heifer prices finally line with the risks and expenditures connected with their growth, these farmers might reap significant benefits. They may become major competitors in a market desperate for high-quality dairy cows, resulting in a competitive but more stable economic climate.

Finally, the endurance of these present breeding tendencies may signal substantial changes in dairy farming operations. Whether this results in a widespread move toward crossbred beef-dairy herds or a return to conventional breeding, today’s actions will influence the industry’s future. Dairy producers must balance immediate financial rewards and long-term herd viability when analyzing breeding options.

The Bottom Line

As we handle increasing heifer pricing and the transition to hybrid dairy-beef calves, it’s clear that dairy producers have a distinct set of issues. Despite having the highest on-farm margins in years, the heifer scarcity threatens long-term viability. While some ranchers continue to use conventional breeding techniques, most find the instant money from beef calves too appealing. This delicate balance between short-term profits and long-term stability will dictate dairy farming’s future. Will the heifer scarcity cause a significant shift in dairy production practices?

Key Takeaways:

Feed costs have decreased, and milk revenues remain stable, improving on-farm margins.
There is a significant shortage of heifers, driving prices to between $3,000 and $3,300 per head.
High beef prices incentivize dairy farmers to produce crossbred dairy-beef calves instead of purebred heifers.
From September 2023 to June 2024, 286,100 fewer milk cows were sent to beef packinghouses than the previous year.
Milk production has decreased in 16 of the 24 largest dairy states, affecting long-term herd management.

Summary:

Dairy farmers enjoy unprecedented on-farm margins thanks to reduced feed costs and stable milk revenues, but a significant heifer shortage hinders increased milk production. With heifer prices soaring—last week, the top 25 springers ranged from $3,000 to $3,300 per head at the monthly sale in Pipestone, Minnesota—and beef prices at record highs, many farmers are opting for crossbred dairy-beef calves, which offer a more immediate and reliable revenue stream. From September 2023 to June 2024, 286,100 fewer milk cows were sent to beef packinghouses, while milk yields are below year-ago levels in 16 of the 24 largest dairy states, complicating long-term herd management strategies.

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Categories : Beef on Dairy, Management

Sire vs. Dam – Which has a Greater Impact on Your Herd’s Genetic Improvement?

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Monday, June 16th, 2014

Too many people say that dairy breeding is an art. If they manage their herds this way, they will be unable to compete in an industry that grows with science. Art places value on the ‘family’ and sees both parents contributing equally shared value to their offspring. In practicing the science of dairy cattle breeding parents are not equal when it comes to which one is the most important when deciding upon a herd’s genetic improvement plan (Read more: What’s the plan? And Flukes and Pukes – What Happens When You Don’t Have a Plan, and Pick The Right Bull – Your Future Depends on The Decisions You Make Today!).

3 Factors Determine Genetic Advancement

On a simplified basis, the rate of genetic advancement in a dairy herd is primarily a function of three factors: 1) the superiority of parents; 2) the accuracy of the parent’s genetic indexes and 3) the generation interval expressed as the time between the birth of the parent to the birth of the calf. Dairy cattle breeders have, in the past, placed a priority on intense selection, but today with genomic information generation interval is necessary.

Four Pathways for Improvement

In a population of dairy cattle there are four groups, commonly called transmission pathways that are considered when determining the overall population rate of improvement. These pathways are: 1) the Sires of Bulls (SB); 2) the Sires of Cows (SC); the Dams of Bulls (DB); and the Dams of Cows (DC). Breeders do not have equally accurate information on each pathway and definitely do not apply equal selection intensity for each pathway.

Which Breeding Scheme is the Best?

The following table outlines the importance of the different pathways for three improvement schemes when animals are ranked and selected using total merit indexes like TPI, NM$ and LPI.

Comparison of Genetic Improvement Schemes

Pathway	Selection %	Accuracy	Generation Interval	Relative Emphasis
1. Traditional Progeny Testing Program
Sires of Bulls (SB)	5	0.99	7	44%*
Sires of Cows (SC)	20	0.75	6	22%
Dams of Bulls (DB)	2	0.6	5	31%
Dams of Cows (DC)	85	0.5	4.25	3%
Relative Total Merit Genetic Gain per Year = 100%
2. Genomic Testing Program
Sires of Bulls (SB)	5	0.75	1.75	34%
Sires of Cows (SC)	20	0.75	1.75	23%
Dams of Bulls (DB)	2	0.75	2	40%*
Dams of Cows (DC)	85	0.5	4.25	3%
Relative Total Merit Genetic Gain per Year = 185% to 200%
3. Genomic Testing Program with IVF
Sires of Bulls (SB)	5	0.75	1.75	30%
Sires of Cows (SC)	10	0.75	1.75	20%
Dams of Bulls (DB)	2	0.75	2	36%*
Dams of Cows (DC)	10	0.62	2	14%
Relative Total Merit Merit Genetic Gain per Year = 225% to 250%

* Pathway of most importance The Bullvine appreciates the assistance of Dr. Larry Schaeffer, University of Guelph, in providing information for the above table. Further details can be found in Dr. Schaeffer’s 2006 paper “Strategy for applying genomic-wide selection in dairy cattle,” Volume 123 of Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics.

Progeny Testing has Served Breeders Well

Breeders have been successful when they used the results of the traditional A.I. progeny testing programs. That is when only elite sires are used to produce bulls (SB) for progeny testing, each year newly proven sires are used to produce the heifer calves (SC), Dams of Bulls (DB) are elite indexing milking females and the bottom 10-15% of the cows in the herd are not used to produce replacement heifers. (Read more: Why you should get rid of the bottom 10% and 8 Ways DNA PROFILING Your Whole Herd Will Improve Your Breeding Program) most important pathway, by quite a distance, is the Sires of Bulls (SB) at 44%. Combined the sire pathways (SB & SC) account for 66% of the total genetic progress. That is opposite to what many breeders say ‘Sires are not as important as cow families. The cow family, in a herd, dominates.’

Genomics gives 185 – 200%

Over the past five years, breeders have become familiar with the program whereby the genomic indexes on young animals are used for animal selection. Even though this program is much discussed, it has been implemented on less than 10% of the farms in North America. In Holsteins, less than 7% of calves registered are genomically tested. Breeders are obviously not confident with the lower accuracies and the much shorter generation intervals. So let’s dig deeper to see what the facts are when it comes to rates of genetic improvement. With the genomics program the relative importance between pathways shifts to where the Dams of Bulls (DB), at 40%, is the most important followed next by the Sires of Bulls (SB) at 34%. Again in this program, as in progeny testing, very limited selection pressure is applied to Dams of Cows (DC), pathway resulting in only 3% of the total progress. The relative ratios of improvement from sire and dam pathways is 57:43. The telltale important fact is that by using a genomic program the rate of annual genetic gain is 185% to 200% of what can be achieved by using the traditional progeny testing program. Another important difference between these two programs is that considerable money can be saved by only having to progeny test less than half as many young bulls with the genomic testing program.

Adding IVF gives 225 – 250%

Some breeders add IVF to their genomic selection program however due to costs and the challenge of mating carefully to avoid inbreeding it is not for everyone. The accuracies of this program match those of the genomic testing program, but the selection intensities are increased for the Sires of Cows (SC) pathway and greatly increased for the Dams of Cows (DC) pathway. For all pathways the generation intervals are short, something many breeders state as being a concern. These farms use IVF on maiden heifers to produce all of the next generation of animals. Again the most important pathway is the Dams of Bulls (DB) at 36%. However, the differences between emphasis on the pathways is narrowed. The ratio of emphasis sires to dams is 50:50. Farms employing this program can have annual rates of genetic gain of 225% to 250% compared to what is possible for herds using a progeny testing program. To fund this more expensive program breeders often sell surplus embryos or animals.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

Determining which parent pathway is the most important rests with which testing and selection program a breeder wants to follow. For breeders using the traditional progeny testing program by far the most important animals are the sires of the young bulls (SB) that enter A.I. progeny testing programs. For breeders wanting to advance their herds at a faster rate by using the less accurate genomic information and shorter generation intervals, the dams of the bulls (DB) is the most important pathway. No matter which program a breeder chooses it is important to have a plan and always use the best available animals.

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Categories : Dairy Cattle Reproduction

Tags : Breeding Strategy, Dam, Genetic Advancement, Genetic Contribution, Genomics, Sire

Who Said You Can’t Breed For Higher Fertility?

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Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

If you were to describe the perfect program to achieve top female fertility in your herd, what would it be? Would your program include heifers calving at 22 months of age and every 11-13 months thereafter until lifetime production reaches 275,000 lbs (125,000 kgs) of milk? For decades breeders have heard that they can’t breed for fertility. It’s all management and nutrition. Well that story is changing. Let’s examine how genetics can play a role in improved fertility in a herd.

The Current Scenario

The CDCB (Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding) has summarized the following current reproduction information on the current US dairy cattle.

Holstein cows take 2.5 breedings per conception. Jerseys take 2.2.
Holstein cows average 80 days in milk before they are bred. Jerseys average 77 days.
Average calving interval for Holstein cows that calve back is 13.8 months. Jerseys average 13.0 months.
Average conception rate for Holstein cows is 32%. Jerseys average 41%.
Average age at first calving in Holsteins is 26 months. Jerseys average 23.5 months.

These stats for Holsteins and Jerseys are provided for breeders to benchmark their herds, not to start a breed war. In five years’ time even if a Holstein herd was able to achieve the current Jersey average it will not be good enough. The three biggest factors that stand out from these stats and that are in need of correction are: 1) days to first breeding; 2) number of breedings before conception; and 3) age at first calving.

As it turns out the reproductive performance of North American dairy cows and herds reached their lowest level in 2007 and since then there has been minor genetic improvement.

Source: CDN – March 2010 – A Look at Fertility from Two perspective

Breeders Must Address Fertility

An attitude shift is needed. We must move from tolerance of fertility to awareness that genetics plays a role. Not all breeders have accepted the need for change. The Bullvine analysed the sires with the most progeny registered with Holstein US over the past two weeks and found that nine, yes nine, of the top twenty had negative genetic ratings for Daughter Pregnancy Rate (DPR). In fact two sires had significant negative ratings of -2.5 and -3.5. In addition four of the twenty had only slightly positive ratings. In total 13 of the top 20 sires were not breed improvers for DPR. That is significant!

Some breeders have paid attention to the management side of fertility and have increased their pregnancy rate by aggressive heat detection, by using professional A.I. reproduction specialists (Read more: Artificial Insemination – Is Doing It Yourself Really Saving You Money?) by installing heat detection devices or by using hormone level monitors (Read more: Better Decision Making by Using Technology). However from the latest reports from milk recording, half the herds have a pregnancy percent of less than 15%. And only 10% of herds have a pregnancy rate of 21% or more. Clearly more attention needs to be paid to getting cows and heifers pregnant.

Genetic Tools to Aid with Fertility

Daughter Pregnancy Rate (USA) and Daughter Fertility (Canada) are the primary genetic evaluation ratings to use when selecting for improved female fertility. These indexes are created using data from insemination, milk recording and type classification.

However there are eleven other genetic ratings that have some influence on reproduction. Individually they may not be significant but collectively they can contribute to reproductive problems or solutions.

Calving Ease – difficult births delay cows coming into heat
Maternal Calving Ease – normal delivery benefits – cow, calf and staff
SCC – cows with mastitis are less likely to conceive
Feet – problem cows are not mobile and do not show heats
Rear Legs Rear View – cows that toes out are not as mobile
Milk Yield – high milk yield stresses cows. Breed for high fat and protein yields on lower volumes of milk.
Body Condition Score – high yielding cows that retain body condition are more fertile
Persistency – high lactation yielding cows that have flatter lactation curves put less strain on their bodies
Inbreeding – inbreeding negatively affects reproduction
Haplotypes – information is now coming available to show that certain haploids hinder reproduction
Semen Conception Rate – although not a genetic rating, low fertility semen should be avoided

Those are the tools available today. We can expect that, with the current research into genomics and reproduction, there will be new ratings to assist with breeding more reproductively sound animals in the future.

Selection Matters

The Bullvine recommends that after breeders short list the sires they intend to use that they eliminate sires that do not have a DPR over 1.0 or a DF over 103. Yes, female fertility is included in TPI, NM$ and LPI but the emphasis on fertility in these total merit indexes is not high enough to result in major genetic improvement for fertility. The following lists of bulls are examples of bulls that significantly improve total merit as well as female fertility.

Table 1 Top Ranking US Sires by Daughter Pregnancy Rate

Table 2 Top Ranking CDN Sires by Daughter Fertility

Action Plan

It is important for both herd viability and sustainability that the following steps be followed.

Do not use bulls that are genetically inferior for reproductive traits.
Genomically test heifer calves. Eliminate reproductively inferior cows and heifers.
Include genomic reproductive information when correctively mating females.
Use heat detection devices, hormone level monitoring equipment or intensive staff heat detection.
Use herd management software and herd protocols to assist with reproductive management.
Ensure that animal housing and animal grouping result in healthy animals
Feed cows and heifers according to their performance and reproductive needs
Employ staff training and education program for reproduction.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

The genetic attention starting to be given to female reproduction on dairy farms is long overdue. The first step for breeders is to include reproduction in your herd genetic improvement plan (Read more: What’s the plan?). In as little as five years, by following a progressive proactive plan, breeders will significantly reduce their losses due to reproduction.

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Categories : Dairy Cattle Reproduction

Tags : Breeding Strategy, Dairy Cattle Reproduction, Fertility, Sire Selection

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Archive for Breeding Strategy

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