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April 2015 US Genetic Evaluation Highlights

Wednesday, April 8th, 2015

The April 2015 Genetic Evaluations were anything but quiet.  With six new sires in the top 10 TPI sires, there are certainly many changes and many new sires to cover.  So let’s get started….

Top 10 Proven TPI Sires

#1. Supersire

Seagull-Bay Supersire-ET   TY
Robust x Planet x Shottle

With his first official daughter proof, Seagull-Bay Supersire not only validates his high genomics numbers (+2581 gTPI in April of 2012) but he actually outperforms it (+2613 gTPI April 2014).  (Read more: Top 10 Genomic TPI Young Sires Review – April 2012) When you factor in the base change that occurred in August 2015, Supersire’s genomic PTAT proof of 2.78 (1.78 with rollback) was spot on with his current 1.77.  Expect Supersire to leave daughters that are all around solid cows.  While not show stoppers, he has a no holes type linear and strong production that make him a strong commercial sire.  He has had a tremendous impact on genetics around the world.  Supersire is living up to our prediction that he is a generational sire that will have a huge influence for years to come.  (Read more: The 12 Genomic Sires Most Likely to Top the Proven TPI List in April 2016)


#2. Mogul

Mountfield Ssi Dcy Mogul-ET TR TY
Dorcy BY x Marsh x O Man

While Mogul’s numbers held steady from his initial daughter proof last round, there are some concerns about Mogul’s type info in Canada (Dropped 8 points). But with 313 daughters in 130 herds (97%) in the US where Mogul is a solid +2.85 compared to 53 daughters in 34 herds (82% Rel) in Canada where is a +8 conformation, breeders can expect Mogul to be more like his US proof than his CDN one.  The area of greatest variance between the two evaluations is his dairy strength.  In Canada, Mogul is a -1 for dairy strength while in the US he is +1.87 for Dairy Form and +0.88 for Body depth.  You will need to watch the SCS score as well as the DPR when using Mogul. Like Supersire, Mogul and his brother Mixer trace back to the WESSWOOD-HC RUDY MISSY EX-92-3E USA DOM GMD that has now proven to not only deliver superior genomic sires, but now also now has impact on the top proven sire list.


#3. Robust

Roylane Socra Robust-ET TR
Socrates x O Man x Manat

Like a fine wine, Robust gets better with age.  Since receiving his first proven daughter proof way back in August of 2012, Robust has increased his gTPI by 235 points and now stands at +2517 and holds the #3 proven sire slot in the US.  Not only did  Robust  prove himself as a high genomic young sire, then a proven sire, but now, with sons like Supersire, he is showing that he deserves to be ranked up with sires such as Planet and Man-O-Man. He joins those sires that can deliver impact sons in the genomic era.  While they are not high conformation, based on type classification, they are certainly cows that last (+7.5 PL).  (Read more: SHE AIN’T PRETTY – SHE JUST MILKS THAT WAY!)


#4. Day

Minnigan-Hills Day-ET   TY
Super x Bolton x Shottle

For those of you who asking   if top genomic sires end up as the top proven sires, Day makes the third   sire from  the top 10 genomic sires of  April 2012 that are now in the top 10 proven sires. Mogul and Supersire are the other two.  Day is the #2 new release sire this round.  As we predicted in April 2012, Day daughters have proven to have greater dairy strength than his initial genomic proof would have predicted. (Read more: The 12 Genomic Sires Most Likely to Top the Proven TPI List in April 2016) Also, as predicted, Day’s official daughter proof for production is slightly lower than his genomic values though they are still very solid.


#5. Marcelon

Morningview Marcelon Cri-ET   TY
Freddie x Shottle x Champion

Another new graduate to the list is Marcelon Cri.  While certainly not 2012 genomic list topper, he was within that striking range that we tell breeders to watch for (10% or 250 gTPI points).  Mercelon outperformed his genomic proof for components and especially for his DPR and conception rates.  Much like his sire, Freddie, Marcelon daughters will not wow you with their conformation, but they last (+4.6 PL).  They have great udders with close teat placements and strong feet and legs.  One area you will want to protect Marcelon on is his angularity. His daughters are more round than they are sharp (to use aAa terms).


#6. Mixer

Mountfield Ssi Dcy Mixer-ET   TY
Dorcy BY x Marsh x O Man

Mixer moves up from number #12 last time to #6 this round.  His proof increased 123 lbs. of milk, 14 lbs. of fat and 8 lbs. of protein. He held steady on his conformation proof. This full brother to Mogul is proving that the apple does not fall far from the tree.  Mixer and Mogul are excellent examples of the best way to utilize genomics.  Here you have two full brothers that, under the pre-genomic era of sampling sires, we would not have known which one was better.  But, as genomics predicted in August of 2012, Mogul is the better of the two sires though both are outstanding sires.  The question now becomes, “Will Mixer get the opportunity that Mogul has had to become an impact sire?”


#7. Moonboy

De-Su Dorcy Moonboy 954-ET TR TY
Dorcy BY x Shottle x O Man

Can you have too much of a good thing?  Well, don’t tell that to Select Sires.  Moonboy ranks   5th of their 7 sires in the top ten TPI proven sires for Select. He was (3rd among new release as well.  Like Mixer, Moonboy is the lesser known of a famous brother, Mccutchen.  Though, unlike Mixer, Moonboy actually now stands ahead (though just slightly) of his famous brother.  (+2396 vs +2379).   Sully Shottle May-TW EX-90 DOM is proving to be a can’t- miss dam of sires,  with sons Manitoba, Predestine, Mayfield, AltaMeteor, and Mexico all receiving outstanding proofs.  Moonboy has a solid all-around proof though he will certainly need to be protected on his fat, straightness of legs and rump angle.


#8. McCutchen

De-Su Bkm McCutchen 1174-ET   TY
Bookem x Shottle x O Man

The 4th new release sire for Select Sires in the top 10, McCutchen comes as no surprise to most breeders. While he did not hold his lofty +2547 gTPI,  he is still an outstanding +2379, good for #8 on the proven sire list just behind his brother Moonboy and slightly ahead of his sire Bookem, who stands at  9th on the list.  MCCUTCHEN`s daughters show the potential he has to sire extreme balance between solid production and outstanding conformation.  McCutchen is a high type sire that also delivers calving ease and solid health traits.


#9. (T) Bookem

De-Su 521 Bookem-ET  TR TY
Planet x Ramos x AltaHershel

Dropping from the #3 spot last round to tied for #9 this time would have you think that Bookem must have had a significant decline in his overall numbers.  In fact, he only lost 40 points. However, with so many new sires coming out, he dropped in the rankings. Bookem sires extreme production and offers breed leading protein and milk, with strong health and fertility traits.  Bookem’s type breakdown shows that the only significant protection he needs on his rumps.


#9. (T) Numero Uno

Amighetti Numero Uno TVLy   TY
Man-O-Man x Shottle x Boss Iron

Rounding out the top 10 is Amighetti Numero Uno.  As expected, Numero Uno’s production continued to drop. It now stands -399 Milk.  (Read more: US December 2014 Genetic Evaluations Highlights )  His overall proof was bolstered by an increase in %F and a slight increase in %P.   Numero Uno also received his first official proof in Canada, where he stands #17 on the Proven LPI list.  Expect him to sire outstanding type improvement, specifically udders and legs, but he certainly needs to be protected on his overall production.


Top Genomic Sires over 1 Year of Age

#1. Director

Mr Pre Director 57512-ET
Predestine x Robust x Planet

Heading the list of top sires over one year of age is Director.  He is yet another outstanding son from Miss Ocd Robst Delicious-ET VG-86 DOM.  Delicious is proving herself as an outstanding producer of high genomic progeny, similar to the likes of Ammon-Peachey Shauna-ET VG-87 and Sully Shottle May-TW EX-90 DOM.   While not as lofty in type numbers as some of the top genomic sires, Director will sire solid mammary systems and feet and legs, though he will need to be protected on his dairy strength (body depth, stature and chest width).  He will also need to be protected on his rump angle and loin strength.   He will sire high component improvement as well as outstanding productive life and conception traits.


#2. Delta

Mr Mogul Delta 1427-ET   TY
Mogul x Robust x Planet

Standing tall and holding his #2 spot on the top genomic sires over a year of age is Delta. Delta is the Mogul brother to Director from Miss Ocd Robst Delicious-ET VG-86 DOM. Delta has extremely high ratings for CM$ 899 and milk (1487), fat (90), protein (52), PL (8.0) and SCS (2.84). Delta should sire strong mammary system improvement, specifically rear udder height and attachments and also solid feet and legs.  Delta will need to be protected on his body depth and overall stature.


#3. Denver 1426

Mr Mogul Denver 1426-ET   TY
Mogul x Robust x Planet

With Denver, it is a trifecta for Miss Ocd Robst Delicious-ET VG-86 DOM for genomic sires over a year of age.  Denver 1426 is the full brother to Delta.  At over 2 points on all type composites and over 2,000 lbs. of milk and positive components, Denver 1426 is in elite company.  For those looking to sire high scoring two-year-olds, they will need to protect him on the height of front end and body depth.


The Bullvine Bottom Line

With Powerball-P holding on to the top polled sire status and Archrival standing tall as the top genomic type sire, just ahead of Atwood the top proven type sire, there weren’t significant changes on these lists. With so many new proven sires coming from the high genomic sire ranks and many full brothers proving themselves, the April 2015 US genetic evaluations were certainly a strong validation for genomics.

For complete April 2015 Genetic Evaluation Highlights from Around the World Click Here


Figuring out which sires to use can be challenging enough, let alone trying to decide which genomic sires will hold their numbers and which sires are going to drop.  Based on our analysis of the genomic sires in April 2011 compared to theirs indexes in April 2014, we have identified key trends that the sires that held, versus the sires that dropped.  (Read more: The Genomic Roller Coaster – Hold on it’s going to be a bumpy ride).  We have taken this analysis and applied it to the current genomic sires who should be receiving an official daughter proof by April 2016. Our analysis identifies the following 12 sires that are most likely to top the lists.

Co-Op Bookem Yowza (April 2014)YOWZA

Co-Op Bookem Yowza-ET
Bookem x Boliver x Bret

Yowza is an extreme outlier sire.  His DGV’s for NM$ are 20% higher than in his official genomic evaluation and almost 30% higher than his parent average.  In fact, it’s his lower parent average that is currently keeping him from being higher on the lists.  As we identified in the sires from April 2011, the most accurate indicator of genetic potential is their DGV’s versus over inflated parent averages, or, in Yowza’s case, an underestimated parent average.  In fact, both Yowza’s dam and sire have DGV’s higher than their parent averages.  While Yowza’s +6 for PL is likely to decline, his 1400 lbs of PTAM is likely to hold.  Due to his underestimated parent averages there is actually a good chance the Yowza’s TPI is likely to increase slightly with the addition of daughter information into his genetic evaluations.  Yowza will need to be protected on his high pins and size and stature.

De-Su Bkm Mccutchen 1174 (April 2014)MCCUTCHEN

De-Su Bkm Mccutchen 1174-ET
Bookem x Shottle X O Man

Continuing the precedent set by Bookem, Observer, Gulf and Gillespy comes three new high genomic sires, Balisto, Mccutchen & Topsy.    McCutchen is actually a Bookem son that has been heavily used already as a sire of sons.  While is NM$ of 655 might concern some, his DGV’s are actually 107 points higher at 762 (18% higher).  The part that is somewhat worrisome is his 3.6 PL since earlier our analysis has demonstrated that Genomic Parent Average for Productive Life was the trait that showed the greatest variability compared to actual daughter data (50% range).  What we did find is most sires did tend to be closer to their DGV’s for Productive Life than their Parent Averages.  Since Mccutchen has a DGV for PL of 3.6, it is reasonable to expect that he will end up around the 3.0 mark.  Most likely Mccutchen will end up being a 700-725 NM$ sire and a 2350 TPI sire. This would certainly have him in the top 5 TPI sires.  Mccutchen will need to be protected on his milk volumes and DPR.

Michigan Bumblebee (April 2014)BUMBLEBEE

Michigan Bumblebee-ET
Bookem x Bronco X Shottle

Another Bookem son that should ring the bell as a proven sire, Bumblebee may not have been on most breeder’s radar.  At +2386 gTPI, Bumblebee is currently number 431 on the top 500 gTPI sires.  This is pretty far down for most elite breeders to have paid much attention to him, especially with other Bookem sons much higher.  While Yowza and Mccutchen may ring the bell higher than Bumblebee, he will certainly have many breeders regretting that they did not incorporate him into their breeding programs.  The hidden stinger that this Bumblebee possesses are DGV’s that for NM$ that are 107 points higher than his gPA’s and 17% higher than his parent averages. He also gets a significant portion of his genetics from his father. This is something that we have seen to be a reliable indicator of those sires that will hold their genomic values when daughter data is added.  Bumblebee will need to be protected on his loin strength as well as rump angle and bone quality, though he should sire desirable udders, solid feet and legs and acceptable dairy strength.

De-Su 11236 Balisto (April 2014)BALISTO

De-Su 11236 Balisto-ET
Bookem x Watson x O-Man

Balisto is the second of the sires on our list from De-Su. Balisto has been heavily used based on his genomic indexes and come April 2016 will have a high reliability daughter proof. The one challenge that Balisto does have compared to the trends we have seen is that he gets 61% of his genetics from his mother.  Normally this would scare us, but since the maternal line in question here is that of Wesswood-HC Rudy Missy-ET TV EX-92 3E GMD DOM that has proven itself time and time again genomically. Balisto should make out just fine.  Balisto will need to be protected on his loin strength, rump angle and rear teat placement, though he should sire more protein and overall pounds of milk than his current genomic proof would indicate.

Val-Bisson Doorma (April 2014)DOORMAN

Val-Bisson Doorman
Bookem x Shottle x Goldwyn

Another Bookem son on our list, Doorman’s calves already impress their breeders.  While he certainly will not be a milk sire, anyone using Doorman initially would have been aware of this limitation.  What Doorman does have going for him are his extremely high type numbers.  While there is a chance that Doorman could be the next Gold Chip and see his proof fall by over 450 TPI points, one difference between the two sires is that Doorman gets most of his genetics from his father, Bookem, who, judging by this list, should be a good thing.  While Doorman will never be a high NM$ sire, he will certainly sire high type acceptable production and will end up with a proof very similar to that of Mccutchen.

De-Su 11228 Topsy (April 2014)TOPSY

De-Su 11228 Topsy-ET
Bookem x Watson x Oman

If you are noticing a trend that is because, there is a strong dominance of Bookems on our list.  In fact 7 of the 12 sires on our list are Bookem sons.  Now to be fair, Topsy is the full brother to Balisto, so it’s not surprising that we would have both on our list.  However, unlike Balisto, who had a stronger contribution from his maternal line, Topsy received a greater contribution of his genetics  from his sire Bookem.  Not a bad thing considering Bookem’s dominance so far.  In fact, depending on just how these two sires end up, this could be another strong indicator about the importance of contribution.  (Read more: Why Braedale Goldwyn Wasn’t a Great Sire of Sons and Sire vs. Dam – Which has a Greater Impact on Your Herd’s Genetic Improvement?).  Similar to Balisto, Topsy will need to be protected on his loin strength, rump angle and rear teat placement, though he also should sire more protein and overall pounds of milk than his current genomic proof would indicate.  Topsy should end up with a slighter lower Productive Life evaluation than Balisto.

Ocd Mccutch Slick Willie (April 2014)WILLIE

OCD Mccutch Slick Willie-ET
Mccutchen x Ramos x Oman

The first non Bookem son on our list is in fact a Bookem grandson.  So if Mccutchen were to drop, Willie would be sure to follow.  Fortunately for Willie all indicators are that Mccutchen should hold just fine and so Willie himself should hold on well as well.  In fact, if we had not accounted for the reliability of the sires in each sires stack, Willie would have been near the top of our list.  Though given that his sire is Mccutchen, he is very likely to hold his numbers, we still had to discount Willie for this.  In fact, Willie is the third highest outlier sire on our list, behind Yowza and Balisto, of the more than 250 sire we looked at.  Willie’s DGV’s for NM$ are 107 points higher than his gPA and 23% higher than his parent averages. This has you considering “Have we regressed young sires from a young sire enough?” or if you believe that his sire is the real deal, then you should have all the confidence in Willie as he has some of the highest DGV’s in the world today.    Look for Willie to sire high production, type and fitness, while just needing to be protected on teat length and milking speed.

Mountfield Ssi Dcy Mogul (April 2014)MOGUL

Mountfield SSI Dcy Mogul
Dorcy x March x Oman

Another popular sire of sons that should hold his genomic numbers pretty well is Mogul.  This Dorcy son gets a substantial contribution of his genetics from his sire.  As one of the first ART program bulls from Select Sires, it will be interesting to see how well Mogul does as a proven sire.  (Read more: Select Sires vs. Semex – A Contrast in Cooperatives).  Mogul is one of the all-around solid sires that has solid numbers in all aspects of his genomic evaluation. Hence, his popularity as a sire of sons and bull mothers.  It will be interesting to see if he can hold over the magic 1,000 lbs. of milk though he should come in around there.   His type numbers should hold around the 2.50 points though he does need to be protected on Daughter Pregnancy Rate.

Morningview Bookem Lucid (April 2014)LUCID

Morningview Bookem Lucid-ET
Bookem x Shottle x Oman

The seventh and final Bookem son on our list is Lucid.  Though Lucid has the same sire stack as Mccutchen, he has a much different breeding pattern.  Lucid’s maternal line has demonstrated that they can deliver genomically and goes back to Whittier-Farms Lead Mae EX-95 3E GMD herself.  A great sire for commercial use, Lucid daughters should milk more than Mccutchen daughters, though Mccutchen daughters should have slightly better udders with more dairy strength.



Seagull-Bay Supersire (April 2014)SUPERSIRE

Seagull-Bay Supersire-ET
Robust x Planet x Shottle

There is no question that Supersire has proven himself as a genomic giant.  His extreme values for Milk, and Components have made him an extremely popular flush sire.  Now with many of his progeny being genomically tested, it is becoming apparent he can pass on his high genomic values. The question becomes will he be able to live up to these expectations when he receives an official daughter proof?  Our analysis shows that he should.  He does possess strong genomic values compared to his already pretty high parent averages. Even with a very potent maternal line, he still gets a strong contribution from his father, and his progeny are demonstrating that they are also getting extreme genomic values.  There are the three dominant characteristics that become evident in our analysis.  While Supersire daughters will not be winning many shows, his no holes type linear and strong production make him a strong commercial sire that will have a huge impact on genetics around the world.

Stantons Camaro (April 2014)CAMARO

Stantons Camaro
Epic x Freddie x Lucky Star

Camaro is a very interesting sire to come to the top of our list.  First we have the factor that Stanton bulls in Canada sampled between Aug 2009, and Aug 2012 dropped an average of 50% from their parent averages, (Read more: The Hot House Effect on Sire Sampling) and then you add in the fact that his sire Epic is from a genomic outlier in his own right. On top of that, while Camaro comes from the Sher-Est S-Wind Saturday EX-90 GMD DOM family which has produced such sires as Sacrates, Mr. Sam and Sidney it is not exactly an extreme sire proving family, given the number of sons that have been sampled out of it.  So how does he make our list?  Well, it’s hard to deny his extreme numbers.  At over +952 for DGV NM$ and high productive life, even if his numbers drop, as I expect they will especially for productive life, he should still be among some of the top sires come April 2016.  While breeding strong mammary systems and feet & legs, Camaro will need to be protected on his dairy strength and rumps.  He is for sure an extreme sire for health and fertility.

Vieuxsaule Flame (April 20140FLAME

Vieuxsaule Flame-ET
Numero Uno x Freddie x Bolton

From the emerging cow family at Vieux Salue Holsteins, Flame was the first sire to put Vieuxsaule Allen Dragonfly EX-94-2E 14* on most breeders genetic radars. (Read more: Vieux Saule Holstein: Rooted In Family Values and VIEUX SAULE ALLEN DRAGONFLY: 2013 Canadian Cow of the Year Nominee)  While most of the time it takes a few sons to receive an official proof before a cow family really hits, genomics has certainly made the identification of such cow families much stronger.  Flame is one of the highest PA TPI sires that should be receiving an official daughter proof by April 2016. All indications are that he should remain among the top sires, once he achieves his official daughter proven evaluation.  While his milk numbers may scare some producers, the one thing we found in our analysis of sires from April 2011 receiving genomic evaluations in April 2014 were that it was the extreme genomic production sires that saw the most significant declines, while those sires that were lower, such as Flame, actually held their production values pretty well.  While I do expect to see his Productive Life values decline as well, his high components, something that has proven to hold well, and high type (also proven to hold well), should have him as one of the top proven sires.

The Bullvine Bottom Line

As we found out in our analysis of the top genomic sires from April 2011, it’s not always the top ones that produce the highest daughter evaluations.  (Read more: The Genomic Roller Coaster – Hold on it’s going to be a bumpy ride)  Identifying which sires are most likely to hold their numbers or relative rankings and which ones are going to take you on a rough ride is probably one of the greatest challenges to breeding programs in the world today.  Based on the trends that we have identified, these 12 sires stand the greatest chance of holding their numbers and being near the top of the official daughter proven evaluations come April 2016.

*TPI is a trademark of Holstein America

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