Trump’s policies could gut your dairy workforce and crush your exports. Land O’Lakes CEO Beth Ford isn’t sugar-coating what’s coming. Are you ready?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Beth Ford is sounding the alarm that should wake up every dairy producer in America – Trump’s immigration crackdown and tariff wars threaten to simultaneously cut off your labor supply and cripple your export markets. With immigrants making up half of all farm workers and dairy particularly dependent on foreign-born labor, her warning that immigration reform is “critical” couldn’t be more timely. The situation’s getting worse as Canada has already announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. dairy products, threatening the $8.22 billion export market that’s keeping many operations afloat. Let’s face it – between labor shortages, market disruptions, and already-thin margins, dairy farmers face what Ford calls a “real concern” that demands immediate contingency planning.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Labor crisis looms: Immigrants comprise roughly half of America’s farm workforce, with dairy even more dependent on foreign-born workers. Unlike seasonal crops, your year-round operation can’t use H-2A temporary visas, leaving you especially vulnerable to immigration restrictions.
• Export markets under attack: Canada’s 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. dairy are just the beginning. Mexico and China – which collectively purchase over half of all U.S. dairy exports – could follow suit, potentially repeating the $2.6 billion in lost revenues dairy farmers suffered during previous trade disputes.
• Profit margins squeezed from both sides: You’re already operating on thin margins with depressed commodity prices. Now you’re facing increased labor costs (if you can find workers at all) while simultaneously losing access to critical export markets that have been keeping many operations afloat.
• Urgent action needed: Develop contingency plans immediately for both labor shortages and export disruptions. Can your operation survive if immigrant labor becomes unavailable or if key export markets close? The time to prepare alternative strategies is now, not when the crisis fully hits.

Beth Ford isn’t mincing words: Trump’s immigration clampdown and tariff wars could wreck your dairy operation and crush our export markets. And let’s face it, farmers are already stretched thin.

Land O’Lakes CEO Beth Ford didn’t pull any punches last week when she warned that Trump’s policies on immigration and trade are raising “real concern” across America’s farm country. On April 24, she pointed out that while many farmers back the President’s economic vision, his current policies threaten to cut off your labor supply and export markets. Can your dairy operation survive that one-two punch when you’re already scraping by on thin margins?

“What needs to be recognized is the necessity that farmers have labor available,” Ford stated bluntly. “Immigration reform, broadly, is critical.”

LABOR CRISIS HITS WHERE IT HURTS

Let’s face it: the numbers tell a troubling story about your dairy operation. Immigrants comprise roughly half of America’s farm workforce, and dairy farms depend even more heavily on foreign-born workers. Haven’t we built our entire industry on this labor force? This dependence has created a vulnerability that quickly became a full-blown crisis for many operations.

“The first thing they talk to me about is labor, immigration, and the lack of available labor for their farms,” Ford noted, referring to her regular conversations with farmers across rural America.

For you dairy farmers, the situation’s especially dire. Unlike seasonal crops that can tap into H-2A temporary worker visas, your year-round labor needs leave you with few legal options for securing reliable workers. How are you supposed to milk cows twice daily with no consistent workforce?

YOUR EXPORT MARKETS UNDER FIRE

Beyond the labor headache, Ford worries about how these tariffs will reshape your trade landscape, particularly by 2026. Her alarm bells are ringing as the administration slaps significant duties on goods from America’s largest trading partners – including countries that buy tons of your dairy products.

Recent tariffs have already triggered payback. Canada’s announced 25% levies on U.S. dairy products, including yogurt and buttermilk, while Mexico and China – also major buyers of your products – may follow suit. Did anyone think these countries wouldn’t hit back where it hurts most?

“The key export market for corn is Mexico. So you can understand these trade arrangements are critical for the profitability of the American farmer,” Ford emphasized.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR BOTTOM LINE

This perfect storm of labor shortages and market disruptions couldn’t come at a worse time for dairy producers. Commodity prices have tanked in recent years, leaving many of you struggling to generate profit. When was the last time you saw decent margins?

You’re increasingly dependent on export markets – U.S. dairy shipped out $8.22 billion in products in 2024 alone. Mexico, Canada, and China collectively buy over half of our dairy exports by value. Can your operation afford to lose these crucial markets?

We’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t have a happy ending – previous retaliatory tariffs from China cost U.S. dairy farms a staggering $2.6 billion in lost revenues from 2019 to 2021.

THE ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK

“I am most worried about 2026 and how duties will reshape the trade landscape,” Ford stated. This timeline gives you almost no runway to adapt to potentially massive market shifts.

The H-2A program limitations continue to frustrate the heck out of dairy producers. While other ag sectors have boosted their use of this program by 65% in just five years, you dairy farmers can’t tap into this labor source because cows don’t take seasonal breaks. Who designed a system that completely ignores the year-round reality of milk production?

Industry analysts warn even tiny market hiccups could wallop your bottom line. “Only small changes can have large impacts on price. Producers are well advised to brace for the disruption that these tariffs will likely create,” noted Mike North, president of Ever.Ag.

RURAL AMERICA DESERVES BETTER

Ford’s advocacy highlights how much rural America punches above its weight. “I like to mention that 18% to 19% of the population lives in rural America, and they comprise 47% to 48% of the military,” she said, underscoring your patriotic service that makes these policy threats particularly galling. Doesn’t rural America deserve better than this?

She’s consistently championed rural development and ag research as national security matters. Ford argues U.S. spending on agricultural research remains “at 1970s levels” while competitors like China pour money into research. Are we trying to compete in 2025 with research budgets from fifty years ago?

Without policy changes, you’re stuck with the impossible task of keeping production going with fewer workers while navigating increasingly hostile export markets. How’s that supposed to work?

THE BOTTOM LINE

As trade tensions and immigration policies evolve, you’d better prepare for disruptions. Sure, industry organizations have urged dialogue rather than escalation, but let’s face it – you need contingency plans for labor shortages and export challenges. What’s your Plan B if workers disappear or export tanks?

The International Dairy Foods Association summed up the situation: “We know the Administration understands that robust market access to Canada, Mexico, and China, three largest trading partners, is critical to the future of U.S. dairy, and we remain hopeful that the President and his Administration do everything in their power to ensure the tariffs avoid unintended impacts on our dairy farmers and processors.”

For American dairy farmers, these policy decisions won’t affect their profits – they might determine whether they survive the challenging years ahead. Isn’t it time we demanded policies that help rather than hurt our industry?

Learn more:

• The Looming Labor Crisis: How Mass Deportations Could Devastate the US Dairy Industry
• Trump’s $998-A-Day Migrant Fines: Is it a Death Sentence for America’s Dairy Industry?
• U.S. Dairy Farmers Unlikely to Cash in on Chinese Demand

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