In Friday’s supply and demand report, the USDA reduced its milk output predictions. The USDA anticipated 2023 milk production at 228.4 billion pounds in July, but their August update reduces that estimate to 227.9 billion pounds.
The predicted cow inventory is lower for this year and 2024, while the expected production per cow is lower for 2023 but unchanged for 2024.
Because of recent price increases, the study upped the predicted 2023 butter and cheese prices. Whey pricing expectations for this year have been reduced. Nonfat dry milk (NDM), Class III, and Class IV have a better prediction. In 2023, the all-milk price will rise to $19.95 per cwt.
Butter and cheese costs are expected to rise in 2024, while whey prices are expected to fall. Nonfat dry milk prices are expected to remain stable. Class III and IV pricing are higher due to increased product costs. The predicted all-milk price in 2024 has been increased to $19.35 per hundredweight.
The USDA anticipates reduced dairy imports and exports in the United States. Imports of fat and skim-solids have been reduced from previous month due to lower-than-expected imports of cheese and butter. The prediction for fat basis exports in 2023 has been reduced owing to decreased exports of cheese, butter and butterfat products, and whole milk powder. The projection for skim-solids exports is lower, owing mostly to reduced whey product sales.
