Weak local demand and shipping issues to international clients are likely to be problems for Russia’s dairy sector in 2024. Although Russian dairy producers do not foresee a noticeable uptick in production, increasing demand is essential if they are to meet that need. In 2023, the suggested per capita intake of dairy products in Russia was 165.6 kg, indicating a decrease in consumer behavior. Due to a decline in buying power and a shift in consumer focus to budget price categories, the Russian dairy union has issued a warning about a potential 20-30% drop in dairy consumption in the first half of 2023. Russia is still importing more dairy products than it is exporting. Reasons for this include Western sanctions, high freight costs, high port fees, and unpredictable exchange rates for the Russian currency, all of which limit sales to non-Russian clients. Some logistics providers are still hesitant to partner with Russian companies, according to Russian exporters. Manitskaya is skeptical that the Russian government’s new policy, which would repay logistical subsidies to dairy exporters in full beginning in early 2024, will have a major influence on Russian exports. Every year, between 200,000 and 300,000 cattle, including 100,000 dairy cows, are lost from Russia’s herds.
