As the calendar turns to the new year, the potential for back-to-back blasts of winter weather has been unleashed. The impact on agriculture could be twofold: a possible cure for drought conditions in parts of the Plains and South, but stressful for livestock. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey predicts an active weather winter pattern in January, which is a hallmark of El Niño. Eric Snodgrass, a well-known ag meteorologist, also watches the change in potential winter weather this month.
The active jet stream is exactly what the U.S. is seeing, with multiple storms lined up for the start of the year. The storm that comes out late this week will be a decent storm system, but it will pale in comparison to the blockbuster storm that we see coming for earlythis week. Snowfall reports from the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque, New Mexico station show impressive snowfall already falling in the Rocky Mountains. As of midday Friday, January 5, NWS reported 10 to 18 inch snowfall totals in the southern Rockies before it made its way across Kansas.
Early to mid-week, a different significant storm will emerge from the Southwest and Four Corners region, which could bring monstrous snowfall totals. The storm early next week will pack a punch with high winds, but it will also bring much needed drought relief. NOAA is warning of weather impacts that will span from Coast to Coast, with heavy snow likely in the higher elevation and blizzard conditions possible.
As the South prepares for the impacts of forecasted storms, moisture is crucial. The South has been on the wildest ride with moisture in the last 24 months compared to any other place on the planet. As the El Niño pattern takes hold, cotton country could finally see some relief this winter. The best chance for recovery and moisture is across the South, pockets of the Mid-South, Southeast, and East Coast. Temperatures are forecast to plunge with a possible Arctic blast, and weather models are pointing to extremely cold and extreme Arctic air also moving in.
The duration of El Niño is a question, as it could have a negative impact on the spring. If El Niño peaks and begins to fade throughout the rest of winter and into spring, the Midwest tends to do okay in terms of precipitation the following year. However, key growing areas of the South this spring and summer could be negatively impacted.
With active storms to start the year, there are still pockets of the country that need much more moisture to replenish dry soils before spring. The debate of just how long El Niño will last is heating up, and there is even talk of La Nina making a return this year.
