- Texas dairy producers are optimistic about 2024 due to recent rains and the passage of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act.
- The state is now the third highest milk-producing state in the nation, with milk production per cow rising slightly.
- The largest hit for dairy producers in 2023 was falling milk prices, with the uniform milk price falling from $23.68 per hundredweight in 2022 to $18.98 per hundredweight in 2023.
- The state is expected to see a further decrease in dairy numbers but an overall increase in Texas dairy herd size.
- The majority of Texas dairy cows are in the Panhandle, accounting for more than 75% of the state’s milk production.
- The dairy industry is optimistic about the future of feed production and market demand in 2024.
- Four different processing facilities are opening or under construction in the state, which could increase demand for Texas milk.
- The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids bill, passed in the U.S. House of Representatives with bipartisan support in December, could return the use of whole milk in schools and greatly increase demand.
- Dairies across Texas are increasingly using technology to help mitigate market prices and higher costs.
- Dairies are also considering more beef-on-dairy breeding to help their bottom line.
District Farm Conditions and Farming Activities
Rolling Plains:
- The district’s soil moisture profiles improved due to previous week’s rain, snow, and wintery mix.
- Both mature cattle and yearling calves on wheat pasture were in good condition.
- Some producers reduced supplemental feeding to help stretch thin hay supplies.
Coastal Bend:
- The weather has been warmer and drier, allowing cropland to dry out.
- Fall fieldwork resumed on lighter, sandy soils, while clay soils were still saturated after recent rainfall.
- Corn planting was underway in areas where conditions dictated, and it was nearing completion in Nueces County.
EAST:
- Winter pasture growth improved with recent moisture and warmer temperatures.
- Anderson County reported pastures were too wet to work for the most part.
- Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to poor.
- Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate.
- Hay supplies remained tight.
- Livestock were in fair to good condition, with supplementation taking place.
South Plains:
- The district received 2-10 inches of snow earlier in the week.
- Winter wheat that emerged was in good condition.
- Cattle were in good condition as producers continued supplemental feeding.
Panahandle:
- As much as 4 inches of wet snow swept across different areas of the district.
- Additional moisture was needed to replenish the upper soil moisture profile.
- Soil conditions were reported from adequate to short.
- Pasture and rangelands were reported to be fair to very poor.
North:
- Topsoil and subsoil were reported as adequate to surplus for most counties across the district.
- Winter wheat and other cool-season crops were in very good condition.
- Livestock were looking for green forage instead of holding close to hay.
FAR WEST:
- Cool, cloudy conditions were prevalent across the region.
- Daytime highs were reported in the mid-70s, and nighttime lows in the mid-20s.
- Cotton and milo production was expected to be lower than average.
- Livestock and beef cattle producers continued supplemental feeding regimens as rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate due to lack of moisture.
WEST CENTRAL:
- Rain was scattered across the district, with some areas receiving over 2 inches.
- Small grains were growing slowly.
- Field preparation for spring crops began.
Southeast:
- Rain fell across multiple counties in the district.
- Warmer temperatures spurred ryegrass and clover growth.
- Livestock appeared in good body condition, and markets remained strong.
South West:
- Dry weather continued with no significant rainfall expected and near-normal temperatures anticipated in the upcoming week.
- Conditions were expected to remain ideal for early spring planting for the rest of February.
Dairy farmers in Texas are bullish about 2024, as recent rains promise better feed and pasture production after back-to-back droughts. The drought has reduced the number of cows and dairies in the state, with the average herd size dropping from 653,000 in 2022 to 635,000 in 2023. However, Texas milk output increased in 2023, making it the third greatest milk-producing state in the US.
The biggest damage dairy farmers experienced in 2023 was dropping milk prices, which dropped from $23.68 per hundredweight in 2022 to $18.98 per hundredweight in 2023. The average price of cheese per hundredweight was around $2 less than both of these values. This has made it difficult for dairy farmers to reach breakeven.
In 2024, there may be a transition year, with more decreases in dairy numbers but overall increases in Texas dairy herd size. The Panhandle is home to the majority of Texas dairy cows, which account for more than 75% of total milk output. Hartley is the top producing county in Texas, accounting for over 19% of total milk output.
Despite the obstacles, many producers are hopeful about 2024’s feed output and market demand. They are expecting for a better crop year, and with the recent rains, they do not anticipate growers to struggle as much as they have in previous years.
Aside from improving farming conditions in the coming spring, demand for Texas milk may be increasing. Four distinct processing facilities are opening or under development in the state, potentially increasing demand for Texas milk. Cacique Foods, a cheese facility, debuted in Amarillo in May, while the Great Lakes Cheese facility in Abilene is expected to be finished by late 2024. A milk processing factory in San Antonio is being built to supply H-E-B and is expected to be finished by the summer of 2025. The first phase of a Leprino Foods cheese production in Lubbock will be finished in early 2026.
The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids bill, which passed the United States House of Representatives with overwhelming bipartisan support in December, has the potential to restore the usage of whole milk in schools and significantly raise demand. Overall, the dairy business has witnessed good growth countrywide, with dairy product consumption increasing from 538 pounds to 655 pounds between 2022 and 2023.
Weather conditions have been good across the area, with rain, snow, and a wintery mix helping to enhance soil moisture profiles in pastures and wheat fields. Some regions were very wet, hampering agricultural production. Both older cattle and yearling calves on wheat pasture were in excellent health, and some farmers were able to minimize supplementary feeding to their cattle, which will help stretch tight hay supplies heading into spring.
The weather has been warmer and drier across the area, enabling crops to dry up somewhat. Some reporting locations received 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, which continued to improve soil moisture levels. Fall fieldwork continued on lighter, sandy soils, but clay soils remained moist from previous rains. Corn planting was beginning in regions where circumstances required, and it was almost finished in Nueces County. Sorghum planting began with plenty of soil moisture available. Pasture conditions improved on a regular basis, with enough rainfall and rising temperatures, albeit there was still a lot of soggy land in the region. Producers continued to supplement feed their herds, maintaining the cattle in fair to excellent condition. Market prices were high, and inventories were low.
EAST: Recent precipitation and higher temperatures have boosted winter pasture growth. Heavy rains persisted in several locations, and Anderson County reported that pastures were generally too wet to work. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from acceptable to bad. The subsoil and topsoil conditions were satisfactory. Ponds and streams were full, with some flowing over the spillway. Cattle prices were high, while some places had low numbers owing to rain. Hay supplies were scarce. Livestock were in fair to excellent condition, with supplements in place. Wild pig activities continues to rise.
SOUTH PLAINS: Earlier this week, the district got 2-10 inches of snow, with higher precipitation in the northern part. The winter wheat that emerged was in excellent shape, as were the cattle, as farmers continued to supplement feed.
PANHANDLE: As much as 4 inches of wet snow stormed throughout the region, wheat growth responded quickly as soil temperatures rose. Producers began pre-plant tillage for summer crops. Daytime temperatures rose steadily, but more precipitation was required to fill the top soil moisture profile, particularly in areas planted with small grains, cover crops, or improved and natural grass pastures. Cattle on the range continued to get supplemental feed.
NORTH: Topsoil and subsoil levels were recorded as sufficient to excess in most counties throughout the area. Most counties in the district classified pasture and rangeland conditions as fair to excellent. Warmer temperatures encouraged pastures to green up, while several regions had scattered rain throughout the last week. Ryegrass should begin to grow in the coming weeks, although higher temperatures have resulted in some volunteer ryegrass growth in some regions. Instead of staying near to hay, livestock sought green fodder.
WEST: Dry weather continues, with no major rainfall forecast and near-normal temperatures predicted for the following week. Most pastures were still in winter hibernation, although cool-season grasses and forbs were flourishing. Conditions were forecast to be favorable for early spring planting over the remainder of February. Corn planting was scheduled to begin shortly, and growers continued to supplement feed their animals and wildlife. Beef cattle prices were solid and stable across all classes.
