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Decline in US Dairy Product Shipments Unlikely to be Offset by Growth in Substitute Products

US shipments of dairy and substitute products are forecast to see marginal annual declines in nominal terms through 2025, according to Dairy & Substitute Products: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. That contraction will largely reflect a high base, with elevated 2020 levels owing to high cheese prices. Comparing 2025 to 2019, shipments are projected to rise 0.9% per year. Nevertheless, long-term historical declines in per-capita consumption of fluid milk and frozen dairy are expected to continue.

Increasing consumer consciousness regarding the impact of the dairy industry on animal welfare, contribution to the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and deforestation and climate change will support a shift in the product mix from dairy to substitute products. However, to keep this trend progressing, manufacturers will need to address expanding consumer awareness of the negative environmental impacts of the plant-based substitutes industry, extensive degree of processing, and use of genetically modified organisms.

A faster drop in nominal value terms will be prevented by:

  • elevated animal feed prices
  • growth in population and disposable personal income
  • increasing output of food and beverage products incorporating dairy
  • recent research showing that dairy products high in fat (e.g., butter, cheese) have a neutral, rather than negative impact on health and longevity

These and other key insights are featured in Dairy & Substitute Products: United States. This report forecasts to 2021 and 2025 US dairy and substitute product shipments in nominal US dollars at the manufacturer level. Total shipments are segmented by product in terms of:

  • cheese
  • fluid milk and cream
  • frozen dairy
  • yogurt
  • creamery butter
  • other products such as cottage cheese; dairy substitutes; and dry, condensed, and evaporated milk

To illustrate historical trends, total shipments, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2010 to 2020.

More information about the report is available at: 


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