USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates dropped the forecast for milk production in 2017. Trend could continue into 2018.
The milk production forecast is lowered for 2017 on slower growth in milk per cow. The slower growth in milk per cow is expected to carry into 2018 and combined with an expected slower rate of growth in cow numbers, the 2018 milk production forecast is lowered. The 2017 and 2018 fat basis import and export forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the 2017 and 2018 export forecasts are raised on higher expected whey exports. No changes are made to 2017 and 2018 skim -solids basis import forecasts.
Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk are lowered for 2017 on current price weakness and slower demand. The 2017 whey price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint. All dairy product price forecasts are reduced for 2018 on pressure from large stocks and slower expected demand. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lowered for 2017 and 2018, reflecting the lower product prices. All milk prices are forecast lower at $17.60 to $17.70 per cwt for 2017and $16.65 to $17.45 per cwt for 2018.
