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How do genomic proofs hold up?


We’re well into the genomic era. If you’re like most producers, you’re now comfortable incorporating genomic-proven bulls as part of your balanced breeding program.

Yet, you might still have questions about the difference you can expect between a bull’s first genomic proof and his daughter proof. To answer your questions, we’ve done an in-depth proof analysis of all industry bulls. Our goal was to find out how genomic proofs hold up. Do they become more or less accurate with time?

What did we learn?

Graph 1 shows the average change in TPI from initial genomic proofs to April 2017 daughter proofs. The TPI change from genomic to daughter proof is the amount of space that separates the blue and orange lines.

Graph1, which shows the change in TPI the average industry bulls see from their initial genomic release until their April 2017 daughter proof

Graph 1. Change in TPI from genomic release to April 2017 daughter proof

This graph includes all industry bulls released between January 2010 and April 2014. As you can see, the bulls released in January 2010 had an average change of 171 TPI points from their first genomic release to their April 2017 daughter proof.

Now, fast forward a few years. Bulls released as genomic sires in April 2014 saw only a 52 point TPI difference from their initial genomic proof to their April 2017 daughter proof.

This means the stability in GTPI from genomic release until daughter proofs has improved by more than 100 TPI points! As a bonus, it’s clear to see that the genetic levels of bulls continue to rise!

The same goes for Net Merit $. You can discover those results in Graph 2.

Industry bulls first released as genomic-proven sires in January 2010 dropped, on average, 151 NM$ from their first release until their April 2017 daughter proof. Whereas, the bulls first released as genomic sires in April 2014 only changed 77 NM$ from their initial release.

Graph 2, which shows the average change in Net Merit $ that industry bulls saw from their initial genomic release until their April 2017 daughter proof

Graph 2. Change in Net Merit $ from genomic release to April 2017 daughter proof

So, even though genomic numbers are still slightly inflated, the gap between genomic and daughter proofs changes less with each passing proof round.

Want more details?

Let’s look at the facts and figures in a different light. We’ll focus in on all 1,078 industry bulls released in 2013. We use this group because all bulls released in 2013 should now have a daughter proof for production, health and conformation traits.

The bell-shaped curve of Graph 3 shows the mean and standard deviation change in TPI on the 1,078 industry bulls released as genomic-proven sires in 2013.

Graph 3, which shows the bell-shaped curve distribution of TPI change from the initial genomic figures of bulls released in 2013 to their April 2017 daughter proofGraph 3. Histogram of difference in TPI from genomic release in 2013 to April 2017 daughter proof

As you can see, on average, these bulls changed less than 100 points from their initial release in 2013 to their daughter proof in April 2017. One hundred of these bulls have a daughter-proven TPI within just twenty points of their original genomic TPI. Only about 40 bulls from the entire group of 1,078 lost more than 300 TPI points – that’s less than 4%.

We see the same trend for NM$. Graph 4 shows the average NM$ change and standard deviation of the same 1,078 industry bulls released in 2013. These sires changed about -103 NM$ from their initial genomic proof in 2013 to their daughter proof in April 2017.

Ninety-five bulls held steady within the small 20 point swing from genomic to daughter-proven NM$. Less than 20 bulls changed more than 300 NM$.

Graph 4, which shows the bell-shaped curve distribution of NM$ change from the initial genomic figures of bulls released in 2013 to their April 2017 daughter proofGraph 4. Histogram of difference in NM$ from genomic release in 2013 to April 2017 daughter proof

What are your options today?

Still debating whether daughter-proven or genomic-proven sire groups are your best option? Take a look at the top 10 TPI sires available from Alta today.

April 2017 Top Dtr-proven bulls TPI
11HO11434 | AltaCR 2531
11HO11379 | AltaRABO 2476
11HO11348 | AltaBGOOD 2474
11HO11143 | AltaEMBASSY 2462
11HO11380 | AltaROBLE 2461
11HO11283 | AltaMERCI 2450
11HO11272 | AltaGILCREST 2444
11HO11446 | AltaPITA 2430
11HO11202 | AltaOAK 2425
11HO11405 | AltaKADO 2419
AVERAGE 2457

 

April 2017 Top Genomic-proven bulls TPI
11HO11630 | AltaMORENO 2742
11HO11778 | AltaROBSON 2733
11HO11725 | AltaAMULET 2712
11HO11724 | AltaSTEEL 2684
11HO11826 | AltaLOBELLO 2681
11HO11758 | AltaNIXER 2676
11HO11672 | AltaKERMIT 2667
11HO11736 | AltaRECOIL 2656
11HO11734 | AltaPOLISH 2651
11HO11720 | AltaFLYWHEEL 2643
AVERAGE 2685

Currently, our top daughter-proven sires average a solid 2457 TPI. Yet, the top, available genomic-proven group provides a 228 point TPI advantage!

Some bulls gain points and some bulls lose points. But your odds are nearly zero that every single bull atop the genomic-proven list would drop to rank lower than the current list of daughter-proven sires.

As you make your genetic selection decisions, keep in mind:

  1. Genomic proofs are slightly inflated. Yet, with each proof round, we see less change from genomic to daughter-proven TPI and NM$ because of model adjustments made along the way.
  2. The average TPI and NM$ change from genomic proof to daughter proof for bulls released in 2013 is about -100. Despite that change, you still make much faster genetic progress using a group of genomic-proven sires than a group of daughter-proven sires.
  3. Make sure the genetic progress you make is in the direction of your goals. Select a group of genomic-proven sires based on your customized genetic plan. Emphasize only on the production, health or conformation traits that matter most to you to boost your farm’s future profitability.

Source: AltaGenetics


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