Many changes were expected this round, with the adjustments to the Net Merit Formula (Read more: The New Net Merit Formula – The Winners & the Losers) and the base changes (Read more: US Genetic Evaluation Changes: Are You Keeping Up?).  The -0.99 change in PTAT certainly had many talking as the top PTAT sire, Eclipse Atwoods Archrival, went from 4.84 to 3.88 and no sires are over that magic 4.00 PTAT that so many type focused breeders had been using as their filter for sires to look at.  (Read more: 8 Steps to Choosing What Sires to Use).

To see complete lists visit our Genetic Evaluation Section

Mogul as expected #1

Probably the worst kept secret was that MOGUL (007HO11314, Mountfield SSI Dcy Mogul-ET TR TY, Dorcy BY x Marsh x O Man, Born:  06/22/2010, Reg No: HO840003006972816) was going to debut at #1 TPI.  Long has Mogul been popular because genomic sons like Rubicon, Delta, and Silver are ringing the bell on the genomic lists and breeders rave about the daughters. It therefore comes as no surprise that he is the #1 sire.  In fact Mogul’s type proof actually increased 0.88 points, when you factor in the 0.99 base change and now finds himself at a very respectable 2.84 which, under the old base would have been 3.83.  Where Mogul   is outperforming the most, is on his NM$. He now stands at 728, which would have been 912 on the old base which has him 59 points higher this round and just behind Robust as the #2 NM$ proven sire.  Another area that Mogul’s official evaluation is much higher than his genomic proof was his productive life (PL), where he went from 5.0 to 5.1 despite a 1.0 point rollback with the base change.  Look for Mogul to sire great udders, very good feet and legs and solid dairy strength.  While he will improve chest width, he may need to be protected on body depth for those looking for your elite classifying 2 year olds.

Robust jumps 3 spots

Moving up from his #3 position in August to the #2 spot in December is ROBUST (007HO10524, Roylane Socra Robust-ET  TR, Socrates x O Man x Manat, Born:  12/23/2008, Reg No: HOUSA000064966739).  While Robust’s production did drop slightly (90 lbs of Milk, 5lbs of Fat and 2lbs of Protein) he saw a significant increase in his productive life value.  Going from 5.3 for PL in August to 6.3 in December despite the 1.0 point rollback.  Robust’s production proof is now 99% rel and his type evaluation is at 98% rel, meaning that very soon he will enter the 99% rel, where he would easily stand as the #1 sire ahead of current #1 and #3 overall sire BOOKEM (007HO10721, De-Su 521 Bookem-ET TR TY, Planet x Ramos x AltaHershel, Born:  02/21/2009, Reg No: HOUSA000066636657) who is strongly holding his numbers, with the base change.

Facebook drops to #4

Former #1 TPI sire FACEBOOK (200HO03753, Marbri FACEBOOK TR TV TL TY TD, Man-O-Man x Airraid x Shottle, Born:  03/28/2010, Reg No: HOCAN000010847042) is now in the #4 spot.  While Facebook’s type numbers held strong, his production dropped by 161 lbs more than the rollback to +1281 PTAM and his productive life dropped from 2.8 to 1.1, 0.7 points greater than the rollback.  So while his TPI may not have changed very much, +2366 this round vs +2356 last round, that is mostly the adjustment in the base formula calculation masking an actual 10% decrease in his numbers, due to lower new daughter information than his initial daughters.

Petrone debuts at #5

The 2nd highest newcomer to the list is PETRONE (007HO11169, Welcome Super Petrone-ET TR TY, Super x AltaBaxter x Buckeye, Born:  07/23/2010, Reg No: HOUSA000069207641). Petrone actually outperforms his parent average by 6% on the strength of his much higher than expected Productive Life scores (7.5 actual vs 6.1 base adjust genomic values from last round).  He also had much higher rankings for DPR (+3.7).  Petrone is not a high production sire (+624 PTAM, +32 Fat, +13 P), but does have solid type numbers (+1.39 PTAT, +1.50 UDC, +1.37 FLC), and outstanding health and fertility traits.  A typical Petrone daughter has an outstanding mammary system, with strong ligaments and teats that are slightly to the inside. They have solid feet and legs, but could be protected on their body depth and dairyness.

Numbero Uno comes out at #6

While debuting at #6 may not be considered a disappointment, big things were expected of NUMERO UNO (200HO07450, Amighetti Numero Uno TVLy   TY, Man-O-Man x Shottle x Boss Iron, Born:  07/15/2010, Reg No: HOITA017990915143).  This has some asking “What happened?”  Daughter numbers are low (169 in production proof and 60 in his type evaluation) and they are certainly not living up to expectations.  They are performing as expected for type but are substantially (50%) lower than his expected production values.  With the US TPI formula putting more emphasis on production and feed efficiency, this does have a negative impact on sires like Numero Uno. There certainly is the chance that, with the addition of more daughters and daughters further into their lactations, his production values could increase. However, if these early daughters are an indicator of what’s to come, there will be many breeders disappointed with the end result.

Denim jumps 26 spots to #7

The biggest mover of this evaluation has to be DENIM (001HO10218. De-Su Freddie Denim 646-ET   TY, Freddie x Wizard x Mtoto, Born:  10/15/2009, Reg No: HOUSA000068656227) who goes from #33 last round to #7 this round, with the addition of 400 daughters to his production evaluation and 102 daughters to his type evaluation.  Most of this dramatic change can be attributed to the significant increase in his productive life values from 5.7 to the now outstanding 7.3. Denim also had an increase from 2.9 DPR in August to 5.6 now.  While you certainly would not expect a Freddie from a Wizard to have very much type, and Denim does not (-0.70 PTAT, -0.48 UDC) he does have okay feet and legs (+0.53 FLC) and daughters are much more durable than his type evaluation indicated, highlighted by his significant increase in productive life as his daughters prove themselves. His daughters are extremely fertile and have outstanding components, but will need to be protected on his wide teat placement, partly due to lower ligament scores, and his angularity and body depth.  Just like his sire, Denim daughters are not fancy, but they are proving to milk hard and last.

Wright enters at #8

Another newcomer to the official proven list is WRIGHT (007HO11123, Pine-Tree Freddie Wright-ET, Freddie x Wizard x Rudolph, Born:  07/02/2010, Reg No: HOUSA000069169765).  It certainly seems that, when it comes Freddie sons, they have to earn their stripes before they can top the list.  This is probably as a result of the fact that they are not fancy to look at and they tend not to perform well on genomic testing. But, when the daughters start calving and performing well in commercial environments, they seem to outperform expectations. With the addition of daughter information, Wright takes a significant jump in his Productive Life (7.8 in Aug to 9.6 in Dec) and DPR Scores (3.7 in Aug to 5.4 in Nov).  In fact he is the highest sire in the top 200 TPI sires for PL and DPR.  A typical Wright daughter has a strong component test, sound udders and great health traits.  They do require protection on their dairyness, body depth and size as they can best be described as a low maintenance commercial cow that just keeps outperforming expectations. Though his low overall production may see him closer to the beef truck than the milk truck (Read more: TPI – Do we have it all wrong?)

Stability at the top

Rounding out the top 10 TPI sires are the very stable Freddie (001HO08784, Badger-Bluff Fanny Freddie   TY, O Man x Die-Hard x Metro, Born:  10/31/2004, Reg No: HOUSA000060996956) himself and Dorcy (029HO14142, Coyne-Farms Dorcy-ET BY, Bolton x Bret CV x Rudolph, Born:  09/17/2007, Reg No: HOUSA000139005002).  In fact there are 5 sires in the top 10 that are over 96%+ reliable for Production and Type.  This is a strong indication of how, in the genomic era, sires are reaching this reliability pinnacle very quickly.

Modesty tops the Genomic List

Topping the Genomic Sire list is Modesty (Bacon-Hill Pety Modesty-ET   TY, Pety x Supersire x Bolton, Born:  06/25/2014, Reg No: HO840003013654627) at +2826 gTPI.  Modesty is a Pety (Mogul x Explode x Mac) from Supersire out of Unique-Style Bolton Money EX-91 DOM, the dam of high genomic sons  Montross, Milson and Mills.  At just six months of age it will be a while before Modesty has semen available.  He is certainly an outlier at 387 points higher than his parent average TPI of +2439.  With the majority of his contribution coming from his sire, Modesty certainly has the makings of being the next dominant sire of sons (Read more: Why Braedale Goldwyn Wasn’t a Great Sire of Sons).  Rounding out the top three genomic sires are Halogen and Charismatic.  De-Su Halogen 12342-ET BY (Halogen x Paradise x Bookem, Born:  04/23/2014, Reg No: HOUSA000072851885) at +2815 gTPI and Charismatic (147HO02492, Seagull-Bay Charismatic-ET, Catalyst x Mogul x Robust, Born:  06/28/2014, Reg No: HO840003124720331) at +2809 gTPI.  (View complete US High Ranking Genomic Sires for December 2014) follow closely behind Modesty. To see complete lists visit our Genetic Evaluation Section

Rubicon tops sires over 1 year old

Topping the list of Genomic Sires that should have semen available currently or very soon is Rubicon (151HO00681, Edg Rubicon-ET  TV TL TY, Mogul x Robust x Planet, Born:  12/20/2012, Reg No: HOUSA000072128125) at +2718 gTPI.  With a sire stack that reads like a who’s who of the genetics world, it’s not surprising the Rubicon will have the ability to throw the extreme list toppers.  In fact the cow family behind Rubicon has been doing that for many generations with his 2nd dam being SANDY-VALLEY PLANE SAPPHIRE VG-87-2YR-USA.  Rubicon has extreme components with a combined Fat and Protein of +149 lbs and added to that he has over 2.26 on Type. He is in rare company.  But what really makes Rubicon stand out is his sire stack that demonstrates the ability to sire extremes.  Similar to Modesty, Rubicon’s Chromosomal PTA’s would indicate that he will make a much better sire of bull mothers than a sire of sons.

Delta #2 over 1 year old

The #2 genomic sire over a year of age is Delta (203HO01468, Mr Mogul Delta 1427-ET, Mogul x Robust x Planet, Born:  01/31/2013, Reg No: HOUSA000072128216) at +2709 gTPI.  From Miss Ocd Robst Delicious-ET VG-86 DOM the dam of other high genomic sons such as Director, Dozer and Denver (the #4 gTPI sire over 1 year of age) from the Windsor-Manor Rud Zip TV TL EX-95 3E GMD DOM cow family.  Delta has extremely high ratings for CM$891 and milk (1441), fat (82), protein (50), PL (7.8) and SCS (2.77). His DPR is 2.1 and he is positively rated for all type traits (PTAT +2.19, UDC +1.95 and FLC +1.76). Delta should sire extreme mammary system improvement, specifically rear udder height and attachments, and also solid feet and legs.  Delta will need to be protected on his body depth and overall stature.

Silver shines at #3 over 1 year old

Rounding out the top 3 gTPI genomic sires over 1 year of age is Silver (029HO17573, Seagull-Bay Silver-ET   TY, Mogul x Snowman x Planet, Born:  04/10/2013, Reg No: HOUSA000072156794) at +2683 gTPI. Silver is a Mogul from the Snowman sister to Supersire.  Like Supersire, Silver has the ability to leave extreme production.  And just like Supersire he will have a significant impact as a sire of sons as well.  Ranking in the top 1% of the breed for Milk, Fat, Protein, Type, and Udders tells you that Silver is going to make a lot of noise before all is said and done.

Archrival new #1 PTAT sire

Debuting at the top of the type list is the genomic young sire Archrival (187HO01000, Eclipse Atwoods Archrival-ET, Atwood x Shottle x Champion, Born:  02/02/2013, Reg No: HOAUS000H01786521) at +3.88 PTAT just ahead of his sire Atwood.  Due to the base change of 0.99, no sires are over 4 points for PTAT anymore (Read more: US Genetic Evaluation Changes: Are You Keeping Up?). While his dam may not be well known in North America, his pedigree certainly is.  His 2nd dam is Sherona-Hill Champ Angel VG-89-USA EX-MS 2yr from the 2003 All-American Jr 2 year old Amlaird Lee Alice EX-94-USA.  She is, of course, the sister to BVK Atwood Abrianna EX-92-USA & Arianna VG-89-USA 2yr from the great MS Kingstead Chief Adeen-ET EX-94-USA 2E DOM and the dam of Atwood, Aftershock, Golden Dream and many more.  Look for Archrival to sire extreme improvement across the board, as he is at +2.00 or more for most type traits.  He will need to be protected on his rump angle as well as on pin setting. To see complete lists visit our Genetic Evaluation Section

Powerball-P tops the polled list

Topping the polled sire list and over 1 year of age is Powerball-P (534HO00031, View-Home Powerball-P-ET  PC TY, Earnhardt P x Robust x Zenith, Born:  05/20/2013, Reg No: HO840003011789392) at +2534. Powerball is less than 200 points behind Rubicon, the top genomic sire over 1 year old.  Polled has certainly been making rapid improvement over the past few years and Powerball-P is now leading the charge.  (Read more: Polled Dairy Cattle).  From the WESSWOOD-HC RUDY MISSY EX-92 3E GMD DOM cow family,  Powerball-P is certainly in high demand (Read more: The 7 Most Influential Holstein Brood Cows of the Modern Era).  His outstanding production proof (+1085 PTAM, +53 Fat, +54 Protein), combined with his solid type numbers (+1.61 PTAT, +1.49 UDC) and high productive life (+4.3) and good calving ease (SCE 6.7Z%, DCE 4.2%) make Powerball-P the polled sire that will launch polled to the top of the genomic lists.  Powerball-P will need to be protected on his body depth and height at front end. To see complete lists visit our Genetic Evaluation Section

The Bullvine Bottom Line

The base change every 5 years, as opposed to every year as in Canada, certainly takes getting used to for most breeders.  Especially those used to seeing type traits over 4 points who are now seeing that there are no sires over 4 points.  With former high  genomic sires like Mogul, Bookem, and Facebook now topping the proven sire list, the surprises each proof round have been eliminated.  Combine that with the fact that most genomic young sires are identified at 2-3 months of age and almost a year old before they enter semen production, there really are NO surprises with each round.  While this stability is great for breeders and the rate of genetic advancement, it certainly does take some of the WOW away from proof day.  However, as we have found on The Milk House that certainly does not stop breeders from talking (Read more: Introducing The Milk House – Dairy Breeder Networking on Facebook)

To see complete lists visit our Genetic Evaluation Section